Can and should the EU and Russia reset their relationship? By Katinka Barysch ★ Some observers in Europe think that Russia’s current economic woes and President Medvedev’s critical assessment of his country’s situation will make Russia more humble and appreciative of EU offers of co-operation. EU officials are talking about a possible ‘modernisation partnership’ between the EU and Russia. ★ Any strategy that is predicated on positive change within today’s Russia carries a big risk of failure. Vested interests and weak democratic institutions have left the Putin regime inflexible. The EU needs to be prepared to deal with a Russia that is often stubborn and defensive. EU politicians should stop talking about a strategic partnership and cut the number of EU-Russia summits. A new bilateral agreement may have to wait. ★ Meanwhile, energy and climate change offer scope for positive co-operation between the EU and Russia. But the EU needs to be prepared for continuing tensions over the common neighbourhood and international issues, such as the Iran nuclear programme. José Manuel Barroso described the last EU-Russia summit in Stockholm in November 2009 as “one of the best meetings we have had”. Nothing much was decided at the meeting. EU leaders and officials were simply glad that relations appeared back to ‘normal’ after the low-points reached in August 2008, when Russia went to war with Georgia, and in January 2009, when another Russia-Ukraine energy dispute left many people in the EU freezing and factories idle. That ‘normal’, however, was already a state of paralysis, accompanied by disillusionment on both sides. Having once hoped for a strategic partnership, free trade, an energy union and constructive cooperation across the European continent, the EU today expects little of Russia. The Europeans are relieved that their internal divisions over Russia are shallower than they have been in recent years. Russia’s more egregious behaviour has helped EU unity. Poland and Lithuania no longer block the EU’s Russia policy in an attempt to draw attention to Russian bullying. Bilateral tensions between Russia and EU countries such as the UK and Sweden have subsided. The EU now is better able to speak with one voice to Moscow. But it is not clear what the message should be. Devoid of a coherent strategy, the most EU policy-makers seem to hope for is to avoid another crisis.
Centre for European Reform 14 Great College Street London SW1P 3RX UK
Stale and stagnant “When was the last time we decided anything of substance [at an EU-Russia summit],” shrugs one EU official. Another lists the meagre achievements of the summit as signs that there is still life in EU-Russia relations: the EU and Russia agreed on an early warning mechanism designed to facilitate the management of future energy crises; they put some money into cross-border co-operation programmes; and Russia used its meeting with EU leaders to announce targets for cutting carbon emissions ahead of the Copenhagen climate change summit. One the whole, however, the EU-Russia relationship is stagnating. Talks on a new partnership and cooperation agreement (PCA) are in their 7th round, without having produced much substantive agreement. That is no surprise, given that the EU wants a ‘package deal’ across all areas, and that there is no progress in the areas that matter most: trade and energy. The Russian leadership is prevaricating on whether Russia should finally join the World Trade Organisation or first build a customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Before Russia is ready for WTO membership, it makes little sense for the EU and
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