What to do about the Lisbon treaty? Four options for the Conservatives By Charles Grant ★ The Lisbon treaty will be in force long before the next British general election, which the Conservatives seem likely to win. The Conservatives will soon have to say what they will do about the Lisbon treaty. ★ One option would be to hold a referendum on the Lisbon treaty. But if the British people voted against a treaty that was already in force, they would probably have to leave the EU. So Conservative leaders have ruled this out. ★ A second option would be to hold a referendum on repatriating powers in certain defined areas, such as social policy. The referendum would precede an attempt to opt out of some parts of the EU treaties. In a variation of this option, a referendum would be held after, rather than before, the attempted renegotiation. ★ A third option would be to attempt to renegotiate the EU treaties without the aid of a referendum. But this option, like the second, would probably lead to an impasse. Having spent almost a decade negotiating the Lisbon treaty, Britain’s partners are unwilling to re-open the existing texts. ★ A fourth option would be to avoid trying to unpick the EU treaties. A Conservative government would instead urge its EU partners to make pledges in areas such as the budget, social policy and financial regulation. Conservative leaders could then tell eurosceptics that that they had achieved ‘victories’ in the EU. The Conservatives have been clear about what they would do if the Czech Republic delayed ratification of the Lisbon treaty until Britain’s general election. A newly-elected Conservative government would hold a referendum on the treaty and lead the campaign for a No vote. Assuming that the British voted No, they would kill the Lisbon treaty. But the Czech constitutional court approved the treaty on November 3rd and President Vaclav Klaus signed it the same day. The treaty will be the law of the land when the Conservatives take office. So what will they do? They have said they “will not let matters rest”. The party has not gone into more detail because it is divided. David Cameron, the Conservative leader, has said that if and when the Lisbon treaty is ratified throughout the EU, he will announce a new policy. That time is fast approaching. Many Conservative Party members, and some national newspapers, will urge Cameron to take a
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hard line on the treaty. Given that he has moderated Conservative policies in a number of other areas – pushing a green, socially liberal agenda, while refusing to promise income tax cuts – he will be reluctant to antagonise party members by denying them the red meat on Europe that many of them crave. A lot of Conservatives, including the party’s leadership, are genuinely angry about what they see as the Labour government’s reneging on its promise of a referendum on the constitutional treaty (the government says that the Lisbon treaty is different from the constitutional treaty, but the Conservatives point out that most of the institutional provisions are similar). The new Conservative MPs who arrive in the House of Commons after the next election are likely to be particularly eurosceptic. According to a survey of 144 prospective parliamentary candidates carried out last July by Conservative Home, a website, 10 per cent would like to keep Britain’s relationship with the EU the way it is, 47 per cent would repatriate powers to Britain in some areas, 38 per cent want a
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