Turkish politics and the fading magic of EU enlargement By Sinan Ulgen ★ In previous EU accessions, the Union’s credible commitment to enlarge and the candidate’s commitment to reform reinforced each other. But in Turkey’s case, European prevarications over whether the country should become a full member have undermined the Turkish government’s determination to push through the changes needed for membership. The accession process is heading for a vicious circle of Turkish disillusionment and EU reluctance. ★ While mixed messages from EU leaders have undermined support for accession in Turkey, there are also country-specific reasons why Turkey’s pro-EU consensus has unravelled quite so quickly: Turkey’s political system is deeply polarised, its accession process is too politicised, and the expectations of many Turks about what EU accession could deliver were simply too high. ★ At the grassroots level, plenty of Turks still support joining the EU. A pro-EU, pro-reform consensus could quickly be rekindled if the government reached out to the opposition, and if the opposition gave up its eurosceptic rhetoric. The EU can help to restore momentum to the Turkish accession process by redoubling its efforts to resolve the Cyprus stalemate, which is one of the main obstacles to progress in the accession talks.
In previous rounds of EU enlargement, the Union’s commitment to admitting new members and the candidate country’s determination to get ready to join tended to be mutually reinforcing: the EU’s positive messages strengthened the pro-reform, pro-EU coalitions in the candidate country and enabled them to deliver the economic and political reforms necessary for accession. Visible, positive change within the candidate country, in turn, underpinned the EU’s readiness to enlarge. In most countries, the pro-EU internal consensus weakened as the accession talks progressed and the immediate political, economic and social costs of reforms became more apparent. Nevertheless, the virtuous circle of EU commitment and the candidate’s determination helped to carry all previous applicants over the finishing line. The Turkish case is different. The magic of enlargement has started to fade and reforms are faltering.
Centre for European Reform 14 Great College Street London SW1P 3RX UK
The virtuous circle unravels In 1963, Turkey became only the second country after Greece to sign an ‘association agreement’ with the then European Economic Community. This so-called Ankara agreement envisaged full membership, for which Turkey formally applied in 1987. However, progress in EU-Turkey relations remained painfully slow, not least because successive governments in Ankara failed to address blatant democratic shortcomings. In 1999, the EU finally accepted Turkey as a candidate for membership. This status upgrade ushered in a period of vigorous reforms. So, initially, it looked as if the virtuous circle of EU anchor and domestic transformation was working in yet another candidate country. The coalition government that ruled Turkey at the time introduced an ambitious package of constitutional and legal changes. It abolished the death penalty, gave more freedom to the media, civil
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