The EU and Russia: All smiles and no action? By Katinka Barysch
★ The atmosphere in the EU’s relations with Russia is warmer than it has been in years. A broader reset in Russia’s relations with the West has helped, as has Russia’s acknowledgement that it might need help with modernisation. The EU is no longer deeply split about how to deal with its biggest neighbour. ★ Nevertheless, the EU and Russia have made little or no progress towards a modernisation partnership, a more secure energy relationship, a bilateral treaty or joint efforts to solve conflicts in the Caucasus. There is no alternative to engagement. The question is how. ★ The Russian leadership will be risk-shy and pre-occupied in the run-up to the 2012 presidential election. The need for Western assistance will appear less acute with oil prices climbing to new heights. While the Russian state will remain difficult to deal with, the EU and its member-states should strengthen links with Russian entrepreneurs, activists, researchers and other parts of civil society. ★ The EU’s Russia policy has become more coherent and realistic; but it is still largely reactive. A reinforced dialogue between Russia, Germany and Poland (and perhaps France) could act as a clearing house for differences and perhaps add some vision and leadership.
Are the EU and Russia finally learning how to get on? When President Dmitri Medvedev travelled to Brussels in December 2010, Commission President José Manuel Barroso described the meeting as the “best summit” in years and an agreement reached on trade as “a milestone”. Although a similar meeting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, in February 2011, was a little less harmonious, Barroso still called it “very fruitful and constructive”. After years of frustration and acrimony, there is a glint of optimism in EU-Russia relations. In a relationship that usually lurches from crisis to crisis – think of the gas cut-off in 2009, the Georgia war in 2008, or the stand-off over Estonia’s ‘bronze soldier’ statue in 2007 – more than two years have passed without any major upheaval. Instead, the Union and Russia are using the improved atmosphere to explore new initiatives, such as security co-operation, a joint energy road map and a modernisation partnership.
Centre for European Reform 14 Great College Street London SW1P 3RX UK
A general relaxation in Russia’s relationship with the West has prepared the ground for improved EURussia relations. The ‘reset’ between Washington and Moscow has resulted in the ratification of the new START arms reduction treaty, tougher sanctions on Iran, stronger co-operation on Afghanistan and renewed US support for Russian WTO entry. The bitter dispute over US plans for missile defence was defused in December 2010, when Russia and NATO agreed to co-ordinate steps towards a new European missile shield. Although Russia’s standing in its neighbourhood remains precarious, Moscow gladly thinks that Western advances into its ‘near abroad’ have slowed for now. Plans for Georgia’s and Ukraine’s NATO membership have been postponed, perhaps indefinitely. Ukraine’s current government is snuggling up to Moscow and Belarus has abandoned all pretensions of moving westward.
T: 00 44 20 7233 1199 F: 00 44 20 7233 1117 info@cer.org.uk / www.cer.org.uk