‘Fiscal moves crucial to 2025 economy’ By Bless Aubrey Ogerio
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ITH the country’s economic growth slowing sharply in the third quarter, economists said fiscal policy execution—especially how the government spends—will be crucial in determining the economy’s performance through 2025. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 4 percent year-onyear from July to September, down from 5.5 percent in the previous quarter and 5.2 percent in the same period last year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). (See: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2025/11/07/
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psa-phl-economy-up-4-in-3q/) Jonathan Ravelas of Reyes Tacandong & Co. said he had expected a stronger 5.6 percent full-year growth but warned that spending delays could stall recovery. “For now, monitor fiscal policy execution closely. If spending remains subdued, private sector resilience and investment will be critical to sustaining growth,” he said in a Viber message. Meanwhile, UnionBank chief economist Carlo Asuncion attributed the slowdown to tighter financial conditions, weaker government expenditure and persistent external headwinds. “Household consumption remained resilient, but weak capital
formation and subdued exports underscore the need for stronger public investment and targeted support for trade-sensitive sectors,” he said. He added that, “Nevertheless, we expect growth to regain momentum, though risks from global demand and fiscal constraints remain.” From the demand side, household spending grew by 4.1 percent in the third quarter, while government expenditure rose 5.8 percent. Exports climbed 7 percent, and imports grew 2.6 percent, but investment, or gross capital formation, fell by 2.8 percent. Private consumption accounted for 74 percent of GDP growth,
though its contribution, 3 percentage points, was the lowest since the pandemic. On the other hand, soft spending and weak investment were the main drags, per ING economists, prompting the bank to cut its 2025 growth forecast to 4.7 percent from 5.2 percent. They also expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to trim policy rates by 25 basis points in December. On one hand, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said the thirdquarter slowdown, the weakest in over four years, reflected the impact of recent typhoons, floods See “Economy,” A2
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10-MO GIR HITS $109.7B AMID CURRENCY WARS www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Monday, November 10, 2025 Vol. 21 No. 33
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 20 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto @reine_alberto
HE country’s dollar reserves climbed to $109.7 billion as of the end of October this year, providing defenses against external shocks and speculative attacks on the local currency. Preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed the gross international reserves (GIR) rose to $109.7 billion as of end-October 2025 from $109.1 billion as of end-September 2025. This is the highest level in a year or since the $111.083 billion recorded in October 2024. Despite this, the GIR was still lower by 1.23 percent year-on-year. An ample level of reserves
means that the country has the capacity to repay its obligations and has enough buffer against risks to global imbalances. According to Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation, the GIR level could fundamentally provide a sufficient cushion or added ammunition for the peso against any undue speculation. See “GIR,” A2
SUPER TYPHOON ‘UWAN’ SENDS 1-M PEOPLE TO SAFE HAVENS
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UPER Typhoon Fung-wong (local name: Uwan), the biggest storm to threaten the Philippines this year, started battering the country’s northeastern coast ahead of landfall on Sunday, knocking down power, disrupting land, air and sea mobility, forcing the evacuation of more than a million people in dozens of high-risk areas. The defense chief warned many others to evacuate to safety from high-risk villages before it’s too late. Fung-wong, which could cover two-thirds of the Southeast Asian archipelago with its
1,600-kilometer(994-mile-) wide rain and wind band, approached from the Pacific while the Philippines was still dealing with the devastation wrought by Typhoon Kalmaegi (local name: Tino]), which left at least 224 people dead in central island provinces on Tuesday before pummeling Vietnam, where at least five were killed. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has declared a state of emergency due to the extensive devastation caused by “Tino” and the expected calamity from “Uwan.” See “Uwan,” A2
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RISING ABOVE THE FLOOD In Barangay Panaytayon, Remedios T. Romualdez town, Agusan del Norte, families navigate waist-deep floodwaters on Saturday, November 8, 2025, after Super Typhoon Uwan (Fung-wong) inundated their community. A father carries his child on his shoulders while pushing a washbasin of essentials, while rescuers help children and the elderly reach safety aboard boats. Residents also salvage what they can—from gas tanks to cooking pans—as they make their way to evacuation centers. See story in A12, Second Front page. ERWIN MASCARIÑAS
9-mo subsidies to GOCCs dip to ₧79.45B T
HE government extended lesser subsidies to staterun corporations in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period a year ago, data from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) showed. According to the BTr, subsidies received by government-owned and -controlled corporations (GOCCs) from January to September this year declined to P79.454 billion. This is lower by 24.50 percent from the P79.94 billion provided by the government during the same period last year. State-run firms are given sub-
sidies by the government to fund operations not covered by corporate revenues or to finance specific programs or projects. Major non-financial government corporations cornered 56.94 percent or P45.246 billion of the total subsidies during the nine-month period. Among these firms, the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) received the highest amount of subsidies worth P27.757 billion, followed by the National Food Authority (NFA) with P8.682 billion. Meanwhile, 29 other government corporations were given a total of P33.699 billion from January
to September this year. The Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management (PSALM) obtained the biggest subsidy worth P8 billion, trailed by the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation (PCIC) and the Philippine Reclamation Authority (PRA). For the month of September alone, government subsidies to GOCCs dropped to P9.203 billion, down by 49.48 percent from P18.217 billion in the same month last year. Taking the biggest subsidy among government corporations during the month is NFA with P3.432 billion, equivalent to about
37.29 percent of the total. Next to NFA are the NIA (P3.229 billion), the Philippine Fisheries Development Authority (P955 million) and PCIC (P443 million). As of end-September, the national government has yet to disburse the remaining P47.973 billion in subsidies of the P127.427-billion budgetary support allocated for this year. For 2026, subsidies are proposed to receive higher subsidies worth P149.654 billion. Of the amount, the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) will corner the bigSee “Subsidies,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.8880 n JAPAN 0.3847 n UK 77.3671 n HK 7.5737 n CHINA 8.2722 n SINGAPORE 45.1907 n AUSTRALIA 38.1418 n EU 68.0039 n KOREA 0.0406 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.7035 Source: BSP (November 7, 2025)