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Saturday, November 8, 2025 Vol. 21 No. 31
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seen INFRA FIASCO’S IMPACT: Manufacturing to keep shedding jobs Q3 GROWTH A MERE 4% n
By Justine Xyrah Garcia
This means we need to upgrade our skills,” he added.
HE country’s manufacturing sector continued to lose workers in September, remaining among the top industries with the largest job reductions, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). Data from the latest labor force survey showed that the unemployment rate eased to 3.8 percent (equivalent to 1.96 million Filipinos), slightly lower than 3.9 percent (2.03 million) in August 2025 but higher than 3.7 percent (1.89 million) in September last year. PSA said the biggest year-onyear employment losses were recorded in other service activities, particularly domestic services (–493,000), followed by administrative and support services (–356,000) and manufacturing (–302,000). Within manufacturing, the steepest declines were seen in garments, electronics, and motor-vehicle parts production, resulting in an average drop of about 208,000 jobs in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said the sustained decline may be linked to weaker export demand, noting that most local manufacturers produce goods for foreign markets. “The reduction in the number of employed persons is quite substantial…What we are seeing is … a reduction in the number both for the month of September and even for the average ng nine months,” Mapa said in a press briefing. For Ateneo de Manila University economist Leonardo A. Lanzona, the continued job losses in manufacturing mirrored the decline in semiconductor exports, the country’s top manufactured goods. He said the trend points to the sector’s loss of competitiveness compared to other countries that have expanded their production capacities. “Usually, when the holiday season arrives the manufacturing jobs are rising and these often can be accompanied by higher wages. But with more workers being laid off from the export sector, the wages are unlikely to increase during this season,” Lanzona told BusinessMirror. “We need to develop other exports based on higher value-added.
Trade uncertainty
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STORMS, SCANDALS, AND A SLOWING ECONOMY Barangay Meysulao in Calumpit, Bulacan, lies submerged in this September 8, 2025, file photo, as floodwaters once again engulf the community. The village, a natural catch basin for waters from the Pampanga River, now suffers deeper woes from land subsidence and rising sea levels from Manila Bay. Local officials lament that an unfinished flood control project could have eased the Pampanga River’s high tide that has left 80 percent of the barangay underwater. The corruption scandal surrounding flood control works has rippled across the economy, delaying public construction, weakening investor confidence, and contributing to the country’s sluggish 4-percent growth in the third quarter—its slowest pace since the pandemic. Economists warn that until governance and spending efficiency improve, the country risks further stagnation amid mounting climate and infrastructure challenges. NONOY LACZA
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By Andrea E. San Juan
HE worse-than-expected infrastructure corruption scandal coupled with muted household spending dragged the Philippine economy to its slowest pace since the pandemic. On Friday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced that the Philippine economy grew by 4 percent in the third quarter of 2025. This was the economy’s weakest pace since the first quarter of 2021, when it contracted by 3.8 percent. Philippine economy’s performance in the third quarter resulted in an average 5 percent growth which is below the government’s target range of 5.5 to 6.5 percent. As such, the country’s chief economist caved in, pointing out that the lower end of the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent target range may now be out of reach. “It’s very challenging to meet already the lower range of the 5.5 percent because that would mean that fourth quarter would have to grow at 6.9 percent or something around that,” Balisacan noted, as he cited another set of challenges such as the super typhoon which is expected to hit the country this weekend. Barring the Covid-19 pandemic, PSA Undersecretary Claire Dennis S. Mapa said the 4-percent growth rate
in the third quarter this year would be the lowest since the third quarter of 2011, or the period when the Philippine economy grew by only 3 percent.
DOF: Temporary setback
THE Department of Finance (DOF) is unfazed, however. It described the 4-percent GDP growth as only a temporary hiccup caused by public underspending, assuring that the Philippine economy is poised for a strong comeback in 2026 as spending efficiencies and infrastructure budgeting reform take full effect. “Although there has been a slowdown in government spending as we continue to address the flood-control corruption controversy, this reflects the administration’s strong resolve for good governance and to spend only on legitimate, high-impact programs and projects,” Secretary Ralph G. Recto said. “This short-term adjustment will pave the way for more efficient, transparent, and accountable public spending moving forward,” he added. The Finance Chief stressed that President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s
major government cleanup is aimed at leading to stronger institutions, better governance, and faster growth in the medium term. Cases have already been filed against alleged actors in the flood control corruption, and they will be held fully accountable and brought to jail in the coming months, he noted. “As said before, the flood control controversy has also revealed that not all capital expenditures translate into growth. And now that we’re plugging those leaks and reallocating funds to high-impact investments—such as education, healthcare, agriculture, and digitalization—we will only grow faster,” he added. The government has put in place catch-up measures to keep spending aligned with national priorities and ensure that growth remains broadbased and inclusive. The programmed P1.307 trillion in disbursements for the fourth quarter of 2025 will serve as a major stimulus to boost year-end and overall economic growth. The bulk of this will go to social services, following the President’s order to ensure that every peso spent in the final stretch of the year directly benefits the Filipino people. Recto also noted that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has taken timely and appropriate monetary policy measures to support growth. “We already anticipated a temporary slowdown, which is why the BSP cut policy rates last month to help
stimulate economic activity,” he said.
Factors behind the slowdown
ON the supply side, Balisacan said services and industry posted “weaker” growth in the third quarter, with a sharp contraction in general government or public construction. Data from the PSA showed that the industry sector posted a 0.7-percent growth in the third quarter of 2025, the slowest growth recorded since the first quarter of 2021. While services grew by 5.5 percent in the third quarter this year, this is slower than the 6.3 percent recorded in the same period of 2024. Meanwhile, PSA data showed that gross capital formation (GCF) contracted by 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2025. This was a reversal from the 12.8 percent growth in the same period of 2024. Construction declined by 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025, attributed to the contraction of General government with 26.2 percent. Mapa said this 26.2-percent contraction on General government is the slowest since the 22.5 percent decline in the third quarter of 2011. Explaining the abrupt decline in public construction, Balisacan attributed this to the “stricter validation measures for [Department of Public Works and Highways] DPWH’s civil works, as well as the implementation of stricter requirements that delayed billings and disbursements for government projects.” See “Fiasco,” A2
Debt-GDP ratio at 63.1% in Q3; fiscal position ‘under pressure’ By Reine Juvierre S. Alberto
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HE Philippines’ debt-to-GDP ratio, or the country’s outstanding debt relative to its gross domestic product, stood at 63.1 percent in the third quarter of 2025, following the economy’s sluggish growth. Latest data from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) showed the latest debt-to-GDP ratio remained at 63.1 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. However, this is higher than the 60.1 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2024, and still above the internationally accepted threshold of 60 percent. This comes after the economy grew by 4 percent in the third quarter this year, which is below the government’s target range of 5.5 to 6.5 percent (See: https://businessmirror.
com.ph/2025/11/07/psa-phl-economysurges-to-4-in-3q/). The growth rate of the economy during the period was slower than the 5.5 percent in the second quarter this year and the 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2024.
End-Sept debt: P17.455T
MEANWHILE, the outstanding debt of the national government reached P17.455 trillion as of the end of September. Of the amount, P11.972 trillion was owed to domestic sources, while P5.482 trillion was borrowed from external lenders. “The national government’s fiscal position remains stable but still under pressure,” John Paolo R. Rivera, senior research fellow at state-run Philippine Institute for Development Studies, told the BusinessMirror. While the debt-to-GDP’s being
unchanged from the previous quarter means that debt growth has slowed, the higher ratio compared with last year reflects that economic growth has been “too weak” to pull the ratio down, Rivera said. “With GDP expanding only 4 percent, the economy is not growing fast enough to outpace the buildup in debt. This level is manageable but leaves little room for complacency,” Rivera noted. To keep debt sustainable, Rivera said the government must focus on improving spending efficiency, accelerating growth and strengthening revenue collection, Rivera added. “The goal should be to bring the ratio back toward the low 60s or below through faster growth and prudent borrowing, not just by cutting spending, but by ensuring that borrowed funds translate into real economic expansion,” Rivera said.
The government targets to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to 60.4 percent by the end of the year and bring it further down to 56.3 percent by 2028. Achieving this goal, however, will be challenging but not impossible, Rivera said. “The economy is not growing fast enough to naturally bring down the ratio, since debt remains high and interest costs are rising.” For the target to be achievable, Rivera said the government would need stronger growth of at least 6 percent or higher, coupled with strict fiscal discipline and faster execution of high-impact projects that generate real output. But if economic growth remains sluggish and spending continues to be uneven, Rivera said the government could see its debt-to-GDP ratio hovering closer to 62 to 63 percent instead of attaining its target. See “Debt,” A2
MEANWHILE, former socioeconomic planning Secretary Dante B. Canlas said the manufacturing slowdown has been weighed down by the country’s overall slower economic growth and its uncertain trade relations with the United States. “It is not clear at all at this point what trade deal in specific subsectors the Philippines was able to negotiate with the US,” Canlas said in an exclusive interview. “Will Trump tariffs that are higher than previous, prevail? A trade deal that’s more liberal than proposed by Trump will lift semiconductors and electronics,” he added. Based on PSA data, electronic products remained the country’s top export in the first half of 2025, with total earnings of $21.69 billion, accounting for 52.5 percent of total exports during the period. This was followed by other manufactured goods valued at $3.93 billion (9.5 percent) and other mineral products worth $1.85 billion (4.5 percent). However, Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation Inc. (SEIPI) data showed that Philippine exports of electronic products declined to $42.74 billion in 2024 from $45.65 billion in 2023. Exports from three key subsectors likewise fell from last year’s yearto-date figures, led by semiconductor components and devices, which dropped 13.47 percent to $29.16 billion from $33.70 billion, followed by communication/radar equipment (–8.55 percent) and office equipment (–2.02 percent). The SEIPI also earlier warned that policy uncertainty in the US and rising global trade tensions continue to cloud the industry’s outlook, even as the semiconductor segment is projected to post single-digit growth this year. Canlas added that no new trade commitments were announced during the recent Korean summit, emphasizing that a favorable trade deal with the US remains critical for electronics and IT exports if the country’s manufacturing sector is to recover and take off. See “Jobs,” A2
MARCOS: MAYNILAD’S IPO PROVES PHL STILL INVESTORS’ SAFE HAVEN
PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. joined Maynilad Water Services, Inc. and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) officials in ringing the bell to mark Maynilad’s official listing on the PSE on November 7, 2025, held at the PSE Events Hall in Bonifacio Global City, Taguig. Also in photo are PSE President Ramon Monzon, Maynilad Chairman Manuel V. Pangilinan, Maynilad President and CEO Ramoncito S. Fernandez, and other officials. MAYNILAD
By VG Cabuag and Samuel P. Medenilla
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RESIDENT Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Friday’s successful P34.33-billion initial public offering (IPO) of Maynilad Water Services Inc.—the second biggest in history of the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE)—proves that the country remains a safe haven for investments amid global market headwinds. “The listing of Maynilad Water Services on the Philippine Stock Exchange is a sign of confidence in our markets and in our people,” the chief executive said in his speech during the event. His confidence notwithstanding, the share price of the west zone concessionaire fell on Friday on its first day of trade at the Philippine Stock Exchange on still jittery market conditions. Maynilad’s shares closed P.02 lower to close at P14.98 per share.
In his speech, Marcos lauded how the Pangilian-owned Maynilad was able to secure new investors through the IPO, which will help the water and wastewater solutions provider to enhance its operations further, while at the same time expanding the country’s capital markets. “This listing invites more investors and voices into the journey of managing a precious resource,” Marcos said. PSE President and chief executive officer Ramon S. Monzon said Maynilad secured $245 million of investments from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) alone, disproving claims by “doomsayers” of foreign investment disinterest in the Philippines’ capital market, Palace officials noted. With Maynilad’s additional funding, Marcos said he is looking forward to the firm’s sustainability initiatives, which are aligned with See “Maynilad,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 58.8880 n JAPAN 0.3847 n UK 77.3671 n HK 7.5737 n CHINA 8.2722 n SINGAPORE 45.1907 n AUSTRALIA 38.1418 n EU 68.0039 n KOREA 0.0406 n SAUDI ARABIA 15.7035 Source: BSP (November 7, 2025)