POT APA 2025 Planning Commissioner Daytona-Beitsch
The Coming Years: The Planning Outlook from a Private Perspective
September, 2025
Owen Beitsch, PhD, FAICP, CRE Senior Director,
CSG Urban Analytic Group
• The planning body, planners, and their roles
• The context and setting
• Personal takeaways
• Trends prioritized by (APA) American Planning Association
• Trends prioritized by the American Society of Real Estate (CRE) Counselors
• Trends prioritized by the Urban Land (ULI) Institute
• Character of the real estate marketplace through the prism of actors in the development industry
• Potential planning and policy responses
The role of the planning agency and the planner
• A government’s planning board influences land use policy as regulator, advisor, and advisor across departments
• Planners advise those boards addressing the long-range consequences of present actions and providing timely, adequate, clear, and accurate information on planning issues
• While the planning agency and its staff operate in the “now “, they must also be futurists.
• Must be cognizant of competing perspectives and underlying political dimensions
• There is a reason Florida law requires financial disclosures.
The integration and effects of planning within the larger public administration process
AICP Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct
• Whatever the physical, economic or political dimensions of planning, their multiple roles are largely influenced by certain principles, behaviors generally, and the AICP Code of Ethics
• We shall have special concern for the long-range consequences of present actions;
• We shall provide timely, adequate, clear, and accurate information on planning issues to all affected persons and to governmental decision makers.
• Consider multiple points of view: It may be reasonable to surmise that there are competing publics and competing interests with rights to be heard and recognized
Context and setting
From 1980 to 2022, Florida added 12,200,000 people, a population equivalent to
• The entire state of Pennsylvania, the 5th largest state in the country and
• The entire 1970 population of Texas when it was the 4th largest state.
Florida is now the fastest growing state.
Selected attributes of population change
Source(s): FIU, IRS files
Population increases in cities of 50,000 or more, 2020-2023
Source(s): FIU, US Census
Population decreases in cities of 50,000 or more, 2020-2023
Source(s): FIU, US Census
Context and setting
In Florida, since 1980, this is what has been added:
• 50-60% of all singlefamily homes
• 60-70% of all retail space
• 80% of all hotel rooms
• 60-70% of all industrial space
• 70-75% of all office space
Takeaway: Market or policy
• Many competing perspectives regarding priorities
• Development fundamentally driven by the marketplace
• Unprecedented change: physical, political, financial, and technological
• The built environment largely the product of private activity.
• We can influence some development factors…others not so much.
• To advance their priorities, planners and their allied policy makers must be competent futurists, technicians, and strategists.
• In an era of almost continuous disruption, policy moves much more slowly than the market. Consequently, some flexibility is essential.
Takeaway: A nod to Donald Rumsfeld
• Knowns: our knowledge and insight [experience]
• Known unknowns: an ability to consider things from a frame of reference [research about the probable and their impacts]
• Unknown unknowns [black swans and scenario building]
Takeaway: Trends or passing [temporal] matters
• We often fail to distinguish between structural conditions and short-term phenomena
• When we do, bad policy or unknown consequences emerge
• The appropriate planning or policy response depends on whether the condition(s) or issue(s) :
− Are truly a trend
− Just a passing phenomenon
− Accelerated [or are they accelerating] due to basic societal retooling and altered life expectations
− Within the control or influence of the public or private sectors
• Can I be a futurist if I don’t know the difference?
Trends or speculation: How we think about alternative futures
• Distinctions between structural [permanent] vs temporal [fleeting] conditions
• Many competing ideas and priorities are taking shape
• Market responds more quickly than policy…the planning commissioners, with the elected leadership, are the drivers and stewards of policy.
• Given changes, how are interactions among planning, permitting, building officials, codes, and public works properly handled?
• Does Florida lead or follow the nation?
• Is policy for speculation or trends?
• Can planners alter the trajectory?
• A rethinking of planning itself [perhaps]
Trends or Speculation, The planner's view: APA
• Rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
– Effects on workforce, energy use, and public trust
– Options for service delivery and public engagement
• Climate impacts and adaptation
– Flooding, heat, and natural disasters
– Displacement – Over 3 million Americans lost homes to disasters in 2022
• Housing challenges
– U.S. housing deficit of 3.9 million units
– High interest rates, construction labor/costs, other factors
– Rise in single-person households - more demand
– Aging housing stock and population create needs
Trends or speculation, Views of the planner: APA
• Hybrid (remote and in-office) work schedules
– Share of remote-option workers grows in 2023
– Interest of office-to-residential conversion of empty space
• Rise in American manufacturing
– Significant federal funding for manufacturing and related Technology Hubs for research in key sectors
– Over $500 million to Osceola County’s NeoCity
• Emerging transportation system
– Electric bikes, scooters, and vehicles and cargo bikes
– Move away from car-centric planning
– Autonomous technology and robots
– Integrate into transportation and ensure public space accessibility
– Brightline
Trends or speculation
Views of the real estate advisor: CRE
• Issues stemming from the election
– Effects on global economies
• Cost of financing
– Disappointing interest rates
– Many buyers [and sellers] on the sidelines
• Loan maturities
– Limits options longer term
• Geopolitics
– Supply chain challenges
• Insurance costs
– 31% of claims reimbursed
• Housing
Trends or speculation
Views of the real estate advisor: CRE
• AI
– Effects on global economies
• Sustainability
– Disappointing interest rates
– Many buyers [and sellers] on the sidelines
• Office vacancies
– Impacts on CBD
– Lowered property values
– Lower taxes
• Price expectations
Trends or speculation Views of the real estate industry : ULI
• Higher interest rates and slower growth
• Debate about a “soft landing”, no imminent economic recession
• Several trends nationally, affecting real estate marketplace
– Competition for capital
– Lower-than-average household savings
– Student loan payments
– Interest in “third places” for people to come together to experience civic life as a community
•
Trends or speculation
Views of the real estate industry: ULI
• Specific to the commercial/office sectors driving downtowns and many suburban or exurban settings
– Lower property values in some nonresidential segments, averaging losses of about 16% for all such uses
– Some office properties down more than 30%
– No longer any reasonable expectation of a full office market recovery back to pre-pandemic levels
– Expect owners to tighten control of expenses
• Certain nonresidential properties have increased likelihood of becoming obsolete
– Many office conversions not economically feasible because structures are wrongly located, limited physically for adaptability and costly to convert
– Often less expensive to clear land and build new
Trends or speculation, the real estate industry: ULI
Trends or speculation, Plans, planners, and the real estate industry, U.S and Florida
• Not immediately clear how any of these observed phenomena will impact Florida
• Claims that the economy was heading to a tipping point before COVID has been challenging to the built environment, the real estate industry creating it, and the planning industry influencing it
• Ongoing debates about the advantages and needs to return to the office. It is a widely explored topic with no universal sentiments about team building, efficiency, productivity, and the industries or businesses impacted
• Major issues from a local government standpoint are that loss of use [increasingly higher vacancies] will result in less vibrant business or residential districts, ad valorem loss, sales tax declines, and budgetary constraints.
• Most “stories” are anecdotal and follow perception or confirmation bias
Shared ideas: Limited intersection of collective thought
APA
• Artificial intelligence
• Housing
• Sustainability
• Obsolescence
• Opportunities for conversions
ULI
• Obsolescence
• Opportunities opuntias for conversions
• Vibrancy of downtowns
CRE
• Housing
• Artificial intelligence
• Opportunities opuntias for conversions
• Vibrancy of downtowns
Competing ideas: Priorities are often a point of view
APA
• Manufacturing
• Transportation
ULI
• Competition for capital
• Lower-than-average household savings
• Student loan payments
• Interest in “third places” for people to come together to experience civic life
CRE
• Geopolitics
• Cost of financing
• Insurance loan maturities
• Commercial pricing of assets
Movements in the office market, 2024
Illustrative market concentrations
Nashville
Orlando
Tallahassee
Miami
Movements in the office market, 2024
Other Areas
Movements in the office market, YTD 2024
• From 2015 to 2024, the combined office markets in Florida added about 55,000,000 SF of occupied office space.
• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2015 approximately 82.0% of the workforce repotted full-time employment at a place of work other than home.
• In 2023, 73.0% of the workforce repotted full-time employment at a place of work other than home.
• In 2015, approximately 2,188,000 office workers would have been associated with the occupied office inventory (1 worker/250 SF)
• In 2023, approximately 3,100,000 office workers would have been associated with the occupied office inventory (1 worker/250 SF)
• Certain pockets or markets where this relationship has not been sufficient to support all related space.
Higher rents but lower rate of increases, 2024
Source(s): GAI, Co-Star
Retail indicators despite online sales, 2024
Building amenities and lease negotiations
Source(s): CBRE Research
More on amenities, parking, 2025
Source(s): GAI, Co-Star, Chicago, Federal Reserve
More on amenities: Day care, 2025
Source(s): GAI, Co-Star, Chicago, Federal Reserve
More on amenities: Open space, 2025
Source(s): GAI, Co-Star, Chicago, Federal Reserve
Employee to desk ratio
Source(s): CBRE Research
Office utilization and worker attendance, 2025
Source(s): CBRE Research
Weekly average and peak attendance, 2025
Source(s): CBRE Research
Trends or speculation: Florida
These may be on the way to becoming structural conditions
• Housing
• Insurance
• Live Local Act
• Transportation
• Pickle ball [or golf courses]
• Property tax reforms
Trends or speculation: Florida
These may be on the way to becoming structural conditions
• Housing
– Not simply an issue centered on affordable housing
– Need is substantial in both absolute and relative terms
– Will lead to deep supply imbalances
– Extensive debate about the best solutions and whether can sustain a long term strategy
– Most communities wage at least a silent war against inclusionary practices through zoning, procedure, and general activism.
– Planners have introduced many options without udnertsnfing themaret aplce
• Insurance
– Not obvious underwriters showing addressing localized climate conditions
– Modest price movement thus far
– Citizens capped at valuations of 700,000
– All could change in an instant
– FEMA implication
Trends or speculation: Florida
• Golf courses
– Thousands closed nationally since Great Recession
– Difficult land use/redevelopment issue
– Several examples throughout Florida redeveloped, acquired, publicly, or conserved
– With interest in playing golf improving since the pandemic, prices of successful golf courses up 20.6% in 2023
– Will golf be replead by pickle ball
• Transportation
– Eyes on Brightline
• Property tax reforms and assessments for public safety
• SB 180
Trends or speculation: Florida
• SB 180, the known unknown
• Orange County comprehensive plan invalidated [suit filed]
• A developer threatening to sue in Suminoe County [suit announced]
• Osceola County impact fees [rumors]
• Polk County suspending certain comprehensive plan adjustments [action chilled]
Trends or speculation: Florida
• Live Local Act: Projects with workforce/affordable housing meeting certain parameters are subject to or enjoy :
• Receive administrative approval with no public hearings or outreach
• Updated in legislative session just ended [2024]-
• Expands ad valorem tax exemptions available from units to land/common areas
• Provides some tax exemptions to existing multi-family
• Clarifies density/FAR/height rights and adds rights to development “bonuses”
• Changes calculation next to some single-family development
• Changes required parking - and eliminates parking requirements in some cases in designated Transit Oriented Development (TOD) areas
Housing: Clear goals but dynamic tensions
• Mix of land uses : may encourage multifamily and conflict with zoning practices
• Good design: often perceived as more costly
• Density: it is often more costly
• Ownership: does this remain the desired norm
• Provide housing choice:
• Reinvest in existing communities
• Make development decisions fair and predictable
• Encourage citizen participation
Housing: Clear goals but dynamic tensions
• Mix of land uses : may encourage multifamily and conflict with zoning practices
• Good design: often perceived as costly
• Density: it is often more costly
• Ownership: does this remain the desired norm
• Provide housing choice: at odds with exclusionary zoning practices
• Reinvest in existing communities: costly relative to greenfield
• Make development decisions fair and predictable: loss of control
• Encourage citizen participation: resistance to change
Reasonable for the planning agency and staff to speculate
• Disruptions and external influences
• Future rates of growth
• Future form and land uses
• SB 180
• Control, intervene, or respond
Policy Response : Insight
• Regardless of personal sentiments, state government can do little to alter the trajectory of major economic conditions, but they can send strong “messages” that affirm confidence and expectations
• Certainly appropriate to think about the role of local governments in building the economy
• May also be appropriate to ”unpack” the meaning of economic development and the planning function
• All real estate development is a tool for economic development but economic development is not a tool exclusively for real estate development
Policy Response : Intelligence and observation
• All space needs are driven by local markets and users.
• Periodic reconnaissance and testing warranted
• May or may not be advantageous to provide incentives
• For retail in particular, how do we make our community thrive?
Policy Response: Objective reflection
• Increased complexity of environmental regulation
– Heavy cost of mitigation
– Subject to federal controls
• Reevaluation of planning principles that restrict patterns of development
– Minimum lot sizes
– Off site requirements
– Amenities
– Resistance to density
– Resistance to non-conventional housing product that serves the missing middle
Policy Response: Action
• Application of impact fees often counter to objectives
– Failing to recognize burdens and differences
• Urban barriers to infill strategies
– Difficulties in achieving clear title
– Codes and forfeitures
– Demolition
– Infrastructure
– Antiquated tax deed methods
Policy Response: More reflection and action
• Financing programs
– Complex at best
– Simply not enough financial resources
– Tough to move the needle
– Competing demands on resources
– ADU conundrum
– Center on conventional solutions
Policy Response: And finally
• Architects are claiming Lasting effect on the design and transformation of space, its utilization, and the pace of transformation.
• Flexibility as we reach for new solutions that can [1] assert confidence and expectations or [2] result in decisions of both short and long term benefit.
• Many advantages to mixed use but many disadvantages to address
• Requires a broad understanding of how communities are affected by systemic failures of planning and markets.
• Demand can be satisfied in alternative locations but those are a source of sprawl
• All holdings or buildings are not suited to conversion
• If we react incorrectly, are we accelerating the age of our building stock?
Resources and guidance
• Know your Census geography. All areas are not created or defined equally https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/income/data/datasets.html
• FRA
• Federal Reserve https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
• CoStar
• Colliers
• CBRE
• BEBR, University of Florida
• Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/cps/earnings.htm
