4 minute read
Raw material price trend
from 101 China Grinding
In August, the price of silicon carbide fell slightly, and manufacturers were looking forward to a rise. According to Baichuan Yingfu's understanding, the price of black silicon carbide fell slightly this month. Affected by the downturn in the market of downstream steel mills, the trading atmosphere of silicon carbide market was general, and the downstream bought more on demand. Enterprises mainly carried out previous orders, and the trend of first-class products was relatively better. Affected by the proportion of raw materials, some enterprises have experienced the phenomenon of accumulation of secondary and tertiary products, and the quotation is chaotic. A few manufacturers have allowed profits to sell and cleared the stock back. There was no significant fluctuation in the price of green silicon this month. At the end of August, the epidemic situation in the main producing areas fluctuated and transportation was limited. However, under the support of cost, the price mentality of manufacturers was obvious, and the price did not fluctuate for the time being.
2. Supply: Affected by the progress of Tianzhu's renovation, some sub-manufacturers stopped production for maintenance in August, with a slight decrease in output and a certain contraction in high-end first-class product resources. Recently, the market for secondary and tertiary products has a general trading atmosphere, the demand has not been significantly released, the supply is relatively sufficient, and some enterprises mainly eliminate warehouses. Affected by the epidemic in Xinjiang, the transportation of green silicon raw materials was restricted at the end of August, and the output in September may decline slightly.
3. Demand aspect: According to the data of China Steel Association, in mid-August 2022, key statistics steel enterprises produced 19.9627 million tons of crude steel, 18.587 million tons of pig iron and 19.4595 million tons of steel. Among them, crude steel produced 1.9963 million tons per day, up 2.72% from the previous month. The daily output of pig iron was 1.8587 million tons, up 3.84% from the previous month. Steel produced 1.9459 million tons per day, up 0.17% from the previous month. In mid-August 2022, the key statistics of steel stocks in iron and steel enterprises were 17.3292 million tons, an increase of 278,900 tons and an increase of 1.64% over the previous ten days; an increase of 732,600 tons and an increase of 4.41% over the end of last month; a decrease of 1.7021 million tons and a decrease of 8.94% compared with the same ten days last month; an increase of 6.0323 million tons and an increase of 53.40% over the beginning of the year; an increase of 2.395 million tons and an increase of 16.04% over the same period last year. According to the data, the steel market has picked up slightly recently, and the prices of some products have a rising trend, which is good for the downstream trend of silicon carbide. However, the downstream demand has not been significantly released, and it still needs some time or can be transmitted to the silicon carbide market.
4. Cost: Affected by the epidemic, the difficulty of transportation increased, Karamay coke price fell 300 CNY/ton, from the previous 7050 CNY/ton fell to 6750 CNY/ton, some green silicon carbide manufacturers currently have a certain stock of raw materials in the field, although the epidemic has a greater impact on transportation, but the current production has not been affected, on the whole, there is no obvious fluctuation in the cost of green silicon. In terms of black silicon carbide raw materials, due to the tight supply of Taixi coal, the price remained high, and the price of Taixi coal to the factory remained above 3000 CNY/ ton. The mainstream raw materials in the market are mostly Shanxi coal and petroleum coke. At present, the factory price of Shanxi coal is about 1900 CNY/ton. Affected by the freight level in various regions, the actual factory price fluctuates slightly. Petroleum coke prices are stable and small. In addition, some black silicon manufacturers choose to mix materials to reduce costs. Overall, the cost side of silicon carbide is divergent, but the overall volatility is not significant.
5. Profit: Under the dual influence of the recent Tianzhu transformation and the low enthusiasm of downstream steel mills, some enterprises mainly export inventory, and the price center of black silicon carbide moved down in August. At the same time by the enterprise cost classification influence, some manufacturers quote confusion, and the second and third grade products have price reduction to sell the situation. In terms of green silicon, prices supported by costs did not fluctuate, but fluctuations in the epidemic in the main producing areas at the end of August led to an increase in transportation costs, and overall silicon carbide profits were compressed to a certain extent.
6. Market: The original price of first-class products in the black silicon carbide market is around 8200-8600 CNY/ton, while that of second-class products is around 6700-7500 CNY/ton, with occasional low-cost resources flowing out.
Green silicon, the market mainstream quotation in 15000-15800 CNY/ton, cost support, the price did not appear obvious fluctuations, with the outbreak ups and downs, 8 months after the shipment situation there is a certain fluctuation.
7. Inventory: Affected by the enthusiasm of downstream steel mills, the demand for black silicon carbide two-three pole products is difficult to be significantly released, and the supply is relatively sufficient. As some enterprises have entered the Tianzhu transformation stage, the total output of silicon carbide has a slight downward trend. Some enterprises are currently mainly consuming inventory. Overall, the inventory level has not fluctuated much compared with last month.
8. Future Forecast: On the whole, silicon carbide trend is weak and stable, it is recommended to pay attention to the trend of downstream steel mills, terminal demand fluctuations and Tianzhu transformation progress. Considering the impact of the fluctuation of the pandemic in the main production area of green silicon carbide on transportation, as well as the price change of Karamay coke, the price trend of green silicon in the later period may fluctuate depending on the development of the epidemic, and the black silicon is affected by the transformation of Tianzhu, and the supply of high-quality first-class products is tightened, which does not rule out the possibility of a small increase, and is expected to be within 200 CNY/ton.
