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Raw material price trend
from 101 China Grinding
caused by the power shortage in the southwest, of which Sichuan Province required all domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises to stop production, so that an alumina plant in Chongqing area to match its group's electrolytic aluminum appropriate pressure reduction, has not yet recovered. With the end of the month heavy rainfall hit the local high temperature and drought weather has eased, the later limited electricity affected the production of alumina, electrolytic aluminum enterprises or will gradually resume production. In addition, the continuous rainfall weather in Shanxi and the outbreak of Sanmenxia in Henan have limited impact on the production and transportation of alumina plants, and have not led to significant price fluctuations.
On the supply side:
In August by the power rationing, epidemic and ore shortage and other issues, resulting in some alumina plants to reduce production capacity, the actual start of a significant decline, the above-related production capacity has not yet resumed production, the resumption time to be determined, the probability will resume production in September part. In addition, some alumina plants were overhauled this month, resulting in a reduction in short-term production. Overall, China oxidized in August.
Aluminum supply fell short of expectations. As of August 30, China's alumina production capacity was 96.7 million tons, the construction capacity was 84.5 million tons, and the operating rate was 87.38%.
Demand side:
At the end of this month, the downstream electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 40.443 million tons, which was significantly reduced compared with the end of July. Limited electricity factors, this month in Sichuan area electrolytic aluminum production reduction is obvious, although the same limited electricity restrictions, but the impact on production is limited. The decline in the start of downstream enterprises led to a reduction in demand for alumina, the field spot inquiry is scarce, the enterprise executive long list is mainly.
Cost:
In August, the price of aluminum oxide raw materials rose and fell, but the overall trend was downward. The supply of domestic ore by rainfall weather and environmental protection and other factors is more tight, so that local prices adjust upward. Imported ore is still the focus of attention of the industry, the relationship between supply and demand has not improved significantly, and prices have risen steadily; the price of port thermal coal first fell and then rose, and the monthly average price was lower than that in July by nearly 80 CNY/ton; the price of caustic soda continued this month The previous downward trend, and the decline is more obvious. On the whole, the cost center of gravity of the aluminum oxide industry moved down in August, and the high cost pressure eased slightly.
On the profit side:
This month, the spot price and cost of alumina have both fallen, and the price has fallen sharply, so the profit margin of alumina has further narrowed this month. At present, there are still enterprises in the existence of cost inversion phenomenon has not significantly improved, while individual enterprises profit points in the profit and loss line hovering, the overall cost pressure in the Jinyu region is still greater.
On the whole, at the beginning of August, the downstream enterprises appropriately replenished the warehouse, and the real transactions one after another led to the activity in the market. However, the alumina market showed a double drop in supply and demand in the middle and late ten days, and the inventory of alumina enterprises was limited, thus the market activity was significantly reduced, and the trading atmosphere at the end of the month was cold and cheerless. It is expected that the market price of domestic alumina in China will still operate weakly and steadily in the short term, with the average daily price fluctuating within the range of 2910-2930.
In terms of imported alumina, the overseas market was relatively calm in August, with only two orders in the middle of the month, thus maintaining price stability. As of August 30, the FOB price in Western Australia was US $328/ton, almost the same as the price at the end of July. The price of sea freight from Western Australia to northern China has been mixed this month, currently at about US $45/ton. At present, the price of alumina at home and abroad is basically the same, the original overseas high and domestic alumina opened the price difference in August was gradually flattened. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2022, China's alumina exports decreased significantly from the previous month, and the import volume was higher than the export volume. China's alumina market once again changed into a net import pattern.
