"Improving the returns to labor for low-paid workers is a key policy challenge, especially in low-income countries (LICs) where earnings increases are the single most important source of poverty reduction and an important engine of shared prosperity. Yet, the understanding of individual earnings dynamics remains limited. The small—but growing—body of empirical literature on the factors leading to larger and faster pay increases points to strong persistence in earnings over time. However, it remains unclear to what extent this is due to differences in individual endowments rather than to the fact that being in low-paying jobs itself undermines future earnings prospects, and to what extent determinants of earnings vary across types of activities and sectors. The knowledge gap is particularly large for LICs due to the limited availability of reliable panel data.
This study uses unusually rich longitudinal data from Ghana and Tanzania to identify engines of, and barriers to, earnings and e
