If not addressed in time, climate change is expected to exacerbate Nigeria’s current
vulnerability to weather swings and limit its ability to achieve and sustain the objectives
of Vision 20:2020 [as defined in http://www.npc.gov.ng /home/doc.aspx?mCatID=68253].
The likely impacts include:
• A long-term reduction in crop yields of 20–30 percent
• Declining productivity of livestock, with adverse consequences on livelihoods
• Increase in food imports (up to 40 percent for rice long term)
• Worsening prospects for food security, particularly in the north and the southwest
• A long-term decline in GDP of up to 4.5 percent
The impacts may be worse if the economy diversifies away from agriculture more slowly
than Vision 20:2020 anticipates, or if there is too little irrigation to counter the effects of
rising temperatures on rain-fed yields. Equally important, investment decisions made on the basis of historical climate may be
wrong: projects ignoring climate change might be e
