Creating Opportunity in Winston-Salem New Insights from Big Data Raj Chetty Harvard University Winston-Salem Foundation | May 2025
The Geography of Upward Mobility in the United States Average Household Income at Age 35 for Children Born in 1978 whose Parents Earned $27K (25th percentile) Dubuque $45.5K
Portland $33K
Columbus $28K
Pittsburgh $36K
Bridgeport $33K Philadelphia $31K
Las Vegas $30K
Baltimore $28K Winston-Salem $27K Charlotte $26K Baton Rouge $30K Austin $31K Source: Chetty, Hendren, Kline, Saez (QJE 2014)
<$20k
$33k
>$55k
Blue = More Upward Mobility Red = Less Upward Mobility
Changes in Opportunity for White Americans White Children with Low-Income Parents Born in 1978
Born in 1992
Household Income Percentile at Age 27 for Children with Parents at 25th Percentile $30.8k $33.7k $40.9k
Changes in Opportunity for Black Americans Black Children with Low-Income Parents Born in 1978
Born in 1992
Household Income Percentile at Age 27 for Children with Parents at 25th Percentile $18.8k $21.2k $25.6k
The Geography of Upward Mobility in the United States Average Household Income at Age 27 for Children born in 1992 whose Parents Earned $27K Black Children Born in 1992
$18.8k
White Children Born in 1992
Household Income Percentile at Age 27 for Children with Parents at 25th Percentile $30.8k $21.2k $25.6k $33.7k
$40.9k
Change in Avg. Household Income for Black Children from Low-Income Families
Changes in Mobility for Black vs. White Children with Low-Income Parents $6k
$4k
Forsyth County
$2k
0
-$2k
-$6k
-$4k
-$2k
Change in Avg. Household Income for White Children from Low-Income Families
0
Trends in Economic Mobility by Group in Forsyth County Change in Children’s Income in Adulthood born to Low-Income Parents, 1978 vs. 1992 Birth Cohorts Born in 1978
Born in 1992 $29.8K
White $24.7K
Hispanic $18.9K
Black
$31.0K
$22.1K
$31.3K
Asian
American Indian
All
$31.4K
$12.1K
$25.1K
$25.7K
$26.3K
Source: Opportunity Atlas, Opportunity Insights and the US Census Bureau
$35.0K
Determinants of Economic Mobility
The Geography of Upward Mobility in Winston-Salem Average Income at Age 35 for Children Born in 1978 whose Parents Earned $27,000 (25th percentile)
See estimates for other cities at The Opportunity Atlas www.opportunityatlas.org <$10k
$34k
>$60k
Blue = More Upward Mobility Red = Less Upward Mobility Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter (NBER wp 2018)
Characteristics of High-Mobility Neighborhoods
Lower Poverty Rates
More Stable Family Structure
Better School Quality
Greater Social Capital
Economic Opportunity and Social Capital Upward Mobility Based on Tax Records
Average Household Income at Age 35 for Children whose Parents Earned $27k
Economic Connectedness Based on Facebook Data
>$44k
> 52.5%
$33k
38% - 40%
<$27k
< 29%
Share of Above-Median-Income Friends among Below-Median-Income People
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter (2018); Chetty, Jackson, Kuchler, Stroebel et al. (Nature 2022)
Economic Opportunity and Social Capital Winston-Salem Upward Mobility Based on Tax Records
Economic Connectedness Based on Facebook Data
Average Household Income at Age 35 for Children whose Parents Earned $27k
Share of Above-Median-Income Friends among Below-Median-Income People
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter (2018); Chetty, Jackson, Kuchler, Stroebel et al. (Nature 2022)
Policy Interventions to Increase Economic Mobility
Three Policy Approaches to Increasing Upward Mobility
Reducing Segregation
Place-Based Investments
Higher Education & Workforce Training
Help Low-Income Families Move to High-Opportunity Areas
Increase Upward Mobility in LowOpportunity Areas
Amplify Impacts of Colleges and Training Programs on Mobility
Three Policy Approaches to Increasing Upward Mobility
Reducing Segregation
Place-Based Investments
Higher Education & Workforce Training
Help Low-Income Families Move to High-Opportunity Areas
Increase Upward Mobility in LowOpportunity Areas
Amplify Impacts of Colleges and Training Programs on Mobility
Where Housing Voucher Holders Live in Winston-Salem
25 most common tracts where voucher holders lived in 2015-19 <$10k
$34k
>$60k
Blue = More Upward Mobility Red = Less Upward Mobility
Where Housing Choice Voucher Holders Live in Seattle 25 most common tracts where voucher holders lived in 2015-17 Percentile Rank in Adulthood > 60 ($55k)
48 ($39k)
< 30 ($20k) Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter (2018)
Creating Moves to Opportunity Experiment Seattle and King County, WA
Randomized trial to test strategies to reduce barriers that voucher recipients face in moving to highopportunity areas: • Customized counseling • Connections to landlords • Short-term financial assistance
Fraction of Families Who Leased Units in High-Opportunity Areas Phase I Results
% of households moving to high opportunity neighborhoods
60%
54%
50% 40% 30% 20%
14%
10% 0% Control
Source: Bergman, Chetty, DeLuca, Hendren, Katz, Palmer (AER 2023)
Treatment
Three Policy Approaches to Increasing Upward Mobility
Reducing Segregation
Place-Based Investments
Higher Education & Workforce Training
Help Low-Income Families Move to High-Opportunity Areas
Increase Upward Mobility in LowOpportunity Areas
Amplify Impacts of Colleges and Training Programs on Mobility
HOPE VI Neighborhood Revitalization Program Housing Opportunities for People Everywhere: $16.7 bn spent to Revitalize 261 Public Housing Sites (1993-2010)
Before Revitalization Happy Hill Gardens, Winston-Salem Source: Chetty, Diamond, Foster, Katz, Porter, Staiger, Tach 2025
After Revitalization Alders Point, Winston-Salem
Three Policy Approaches to Increasing Upward Mobility
Reducing Segregation
Place-Based Investments
Higher Education & Workforce Training
Help Low-Income Families Move to High-Opportunity Areas
Increase Upward Mobility in LowOpportunity Areas
Amplify Impacts of Colleges and Training Programs on Mobility
The Contribution of Colleges to Economic Mobility in North Carolina Upward Mobility vs. Low-Income Access 80
Upward Mobility Rate % of students from bottom 20% who reach top 20%
70 60 50 40 30
MIT Stanford Harvard Duke Wake Forest
UNC Chapel Hill Queens U. of Charlotte
NC State UNC Pembroke Davidson UNC Charlotte
North Carolina A&T Winston-Salem State U.
NC Central U. Guilford College 20 UNC Greensboro Miami Dade CC Salem College CC Of Philadelphia 10 UNC Wilmington Stanly CC Bunker Hill CC Central Piedmont CC Edgecombe CC Forsyth Tech CC Rowan-Cabarrus CC 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Low-Income Access % of students from families in bottom 20%
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, Yagan (2020)
45
50
The Contribution of Colleges to Economic Mobility in North Carolina Upward Mobility vs. Low-Income Access 80
Upward Mobility Rate % of students from bottom 20% who reach top 20%
70 60 50 40 30
MIT Stanford Harvard Duke Wake Forest
UNC Chapel Hill Queens U. of Charlotte
NC State UNC Pembroke Davidson UNC Charlotte
Vaughn College Of Aeronautics And Technology North Carolina A&T Winston-Salem State U.
NC Central U. Guilford College 20 UNC Greensboro Miami Dade CC Salem College CC Of Philadelphia 10 UNC Wilmington Stanly CC Bunker Hill CC Central Piedmont CC Edgecombe CC Forsyth Tech CC Rowan-Cabarrus CC 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Low-Income Access % of students from families in bottom 20%
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, Yagan (2020)
45
50
Improving Economic Opportunity in Charlotte
Land of Opportunity? Not by a long shot. “When the headline broke about the Harvard University/UC Berkeley study that ranked CharlotteMecklenburg 50th out of 50 in upward mobility for children born into our lowest income quintile, many in our community responded with disbelief. How, on the one hand, can we be such a vital and opportunity-rich community, and on the other, be ranked dead last in the odds that our lowest income children and youth will be able to move up the economic ladder as they become adults?”
$160M corporate investment in local workforce development
Mayor’s initiative raises $250M to boost opportunity in Charlotte
A local data tool developed to monitor opportunity indicators for >100 area nonprofits
Source: The Charlotte Observer (2018); YearUp & Bank of America | The Mayor’s Initiative | Leading on Opportunity
Changes in Economic Mobility Across Areas 1978-92 Birth Cohorts, 50 Largest Metro Areas (Commuting Zones)
Top 5: Most Improved
Bottom 5: Least Improved
Explore your community’s data Opportunity Atlas: www.opportunityatlas.org
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