Issuu

0 0_1 6 2_ 4- 5 F H R r e p ort s

M o d elli n g w a t e r a v ail a bili t y a n d w a t e r all o c a ti o n s t r a t e gi es i n t h e S c h el d t b asi n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g W E TS P A

w w w. ﬂ a n d ers h y dr a uli c sr e s e ar c h. b e

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – WETS P A

L a m, Q. D.; M ar o y, E.; P er eir a, F., N oss e nt, J.; M ost a ert, F.

C o v er fi g ur e © T h e G o v er n m e nt of Fl a n d er s, D e p art m e nt of M o bilit y a n d P u bli c W or ks, Fl a n d ers H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h L e g al n oti c e Fl a n d ers H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h i s of t h e o pi ni o n t h at t h e i nf or m ati o n a n d p ositi o ns i n t his r e p ort ar e s u bst a nti at e d b y t h e a v ail a bl e d at a a n d k n o wl e d g e at t h e ti m e of writi n g. T h e p ositi o ns t a k e n i n t hi s r e p ort ar e t h os e of Fl a n d er s H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h a n d d o n ot r efl e ct n e c ess aril y t h e o pi ni o n of t h e G o v er n m e nt of Fl a n d er s or a n y of its i nstit uti o ns. Fl a n d ers H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h n or a n y p ers o n or c o m p a n y a cti n g o n b e h alf of Fl a n d ers H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h is r es p o nsi bl e f or a n y l oss or d a m a g e arisi n g fr o m t h e us e of t h e i nf or m ati o n i n t his r e p ort. C o p yri g ht a n d cit ati o n © T h e G o v er n m e nt of Fl a n d er s, D e p art m e nt of M o bilit y a n d P u bli c W or ks, Fl a n d ers H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h 2 0 2 1 D/ 2 0 2 1/ 3 2 4 1/ 1 3 6 T his p u bli c ati o n s h o ul d b e cit e d a s f oll o ws: L a m, Q. D.; M ar o y, E.; P er eir a, F., N os s e nt, J.; M ost a ert, F. ( 2 0 2 1). M o d elli n g w at er a v ail abilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n: S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A. V ersi o n 2. 0. F H R R e p orts, 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5. Fl a n d e rs H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h: A nt w er p, B el gi u m. R e pr o d u cti o n of a n d r ef er e n c e t o t his p u bli c ati o n is a ut h oris e d pr o vi d e d t h e s o ur c e is a c k n o wl e d g e d c orr e ctl y. D o c u m e nt i d e ntifi c ati o n C ust o m er: K e y w or ds ( 3- 5): K n o wl e d g e d o m ai ns: T e xt ( p.): C o nfi d e nti alit y:

Fl a n d ers H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h H y dr ol o g y, S c h el dt, c ali br ati o n, W E T S P A W at er m a n a g e m e nt > H y dr ol o g y > C o n c e pt u al 93 No A v ail a bl e

A ut h or(s):

L a m, Q. D.; M ar o y, E.

R ef.:

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

M o d els > N u m eri c al m o d elli n g A p p e n di c es ( p.): 714 o nli n e

C o ntr ol Na me R e vis er(s):

Pr oj e ct l e a d er:

Si g n at ur e N oss e nt, J.;

P er eir a, F.

G et e k e n d d o or: Jiri N o s s e nt ( Si g n at ur e) G et e k e n d o p: 2 0 2 1- 0 7- 0 8 1 0: 2 7: 2 7 + 0 2: 0 R e d e n:I k k e ur dit d o c u m e nt g o e d

G et e k e n d d o or: F er n a n d o P er eir a ( Si g n at G et e k e n d o p: 2 0 2 1- 0 7- 0 2 1 5: 4 2: 5 0 + 0 2: 0 R e d e n:I k k e ur dit d o c u m e nt g o e d

A p pr o v al H e a d of Di visi o n:

F- W L- P P 1 0- 2 V ersi o n 7 V ali d as fr o m 3/ 0 1/ 2 0 1 7

M ost a ert, F.

G et e k e n d d o or: Fr a n k M o st a ert ( Si g n at ur G et e k e n d o p: 2 0 2 1- 0 7- 0 7 1 6: 1 4: 5 4 + 0 2: 0 R e d e n:I k k e ur dit d o c u m e nt g o e d

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A bstr a ct T h e w at er b al a n c e m o d el of t h e S c h el dt b asi n will b e us e d i n or d er t o p erf or m l o w fl o w f or e c asts a n d c al c ul at e cli m at e c h a n g e s c e n ari os. Wit hi n t h e c urr e nt s u bt as k is i n v esti g at e d w hi c h is t h e m ost a p pr o pri at e h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el f or t h e s u b c at c h m e nts of t h e w at er b al a n c e m o d el of t h e S c h el dt b asi n i n or d er t o m e et t his pr er e q uisit e. T his s u b r e p ort d es cri b es t h e e v al u ati o n of W E T S P A m o d els ( W at er a n d e n er g y tr a nsf er b et w e e n S oil pl a nt a n d at m os p h er e, S al v a d or e, E. et al., 2 0 1 2, 2 0 2 1 ). H y dr ol o gi c al m o d els w it h W E T S P A ar e d e v el o p e d f or t h e s u b c at c h m e nts i n cl ud e d i n t h e w at er b al a n c e m o d el (i n cl u di n g t h e M e us e b asi n). T o ass ess t h e w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d t h e fl o w b e h a vi or, e a c h c at c h m e nt w as c ali br at e d m a n u all y t o fi n d a n o pti m al p ar a m et er s et. T h e o pti miz ati o n d uri n g c ali br ati o n is p erf or m e d b as e d o n a n a ut o m a ti c pr o c e d ur e f oll o w e d b y a vis u al c o ntr ol. D uri n g t h e o pti miz ati o n r o uti n e t h e p ar a m et ers s et is s el e ct e d b as e d o n 2 crit eri a: ( 1) a bs ol ut e err or o n c u m ul at e d t ot al fl o w at e a c h ti m e st e p, a n d ( 2) l o g ar it h mi c N as h-S ut cliff effi ci e n c y. T h e first crit eri o n ai ms t o m o d el t h e gl o b al fl o w p att er n, t h e l att er f o c us es m ai nl y o n t h e l o w fl o ws. I n g e n er al t h e si m ul ati o n of t h e h y dr ol o g y of t h e S c h el dt a n d t h e M e us e b asi n gi v es fr o m r e as o n a bl e t o f airl y g o o d r es ults a n d b y c o ns e q u e n c e t h e d e v el o p e d h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els c o ul d b e us e d t o pr e di ct t h e f ut ur e w at er a v ail a bilit y u n d er cli m at e c h a n g e.

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

III

F- W L -P P 1 0 -2 V ersi o n 7 V ali d as fr o m 3/ 0 1/ 2 0 1 7

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C o nt e nts A bstr a ct ............................................................................................................................................................ III C o nt e nts ............................................................................................................................................................ V List of t a bl es .................................................................................................................................................... VIII List of fi g ur es ..................................................................................................................................................... X 1

I ntr o d u cti o n............................................................................................................................................... 1 1. 1

O bj e cti v es ............................................................................................................................................ 1

1. 2

D es cri pti o n of t h e st u d y ar e a .............................................................................................................. 1

1. 3

Str u ct ur e of t h e r e p ort ........................................................................................................................ 2

C at c h m e nt d eli n e ati o n .............................................................................................................................. 3 2. 1

G e n er al ................................................................................................................................................ 3

2. 2

G a u g e d c at c h m e nts i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n ............................................................................................ 5

2. 3

G a u g e d c at c h m e nts i n t h e M e us e b asi n ............................................................................................. 7

I n p ut d at a pre pr o c essi n g ........................................................................................................................... 9 3. 1

T hi ess e n p ol y g o n m et h o d ................................................................................................................... 9

3. 2

Pr e ci pit ati o n ........................................................................................................................................ 9

3. 3

E v a p otr a ns pir ati o n ............................................................................................................................ 1 0

3. 4

S p ati al distri b uti o n m a ps .................................................................................................................. 1 0

3. 4. 1

D E M ( Di git al El e v ati o n m a p) ...................................................................................................... 1 0

3. 4. 2

L a n d Us e .................................................................................................................................... 1 1

3. 4. 3

S oil m a p ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2

R ai nf all -r u n off m o d elli n g m et h o d ol o g y .................................................................................................. 1 4 4. 1

T h e ori gi n a l W E T S P A m o d el.............................................................................................................. 1 4

4. 2

T h e W E T S P A -P C R ast er -P yt h o n M o d el .............................................................................................. 1 5

4. 2 . 1

G e n er al ...................................................................................................................................... 1 5

4. 2. 2

Gl o b al p ar a m et ers ..................................................................................................................... 1 5

4. 2. 3

S oil b as e d p ar a m et ers ............................................................................................................... 1 6

4. 2. 4

L a n d us e b as e d p ar a m et ers: ...................................................................................................... 1 6

C ali br ati o n str at e g y ................................................................................................................................. 1 8 5. 1

M a n u al C ali br ati o n ............................................................................................................................ 1 8

5. 2

A ut o -C ali br ati o n ................................................................................................................................ 1 9

5. 3

O bj e cti v e f u n cti o n ............................................................................................................................. 2 1

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C ali br ati o n of t h e W E T S P A m o d el ........................................................................................................... 2 4 6. 1

IJz er b asi n .......................................................................................................................................... 2 4

6. 1. 1

C o nt e xt ....................................................................................................................................... 2 4

6. 1. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ................................................................................................................... 2 5

6. 2

Br u gs e P ol d ers .................................................................................................................................. 3 1

6. 2. 1

C o nt e xt ....................................................................................................................................... 3 1

6. 2. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ................................................................................................................... 3 1

6. 3

G e nts e K a n al e n ................................................................................................................................. 3 7

6. 3. 1

C o nt e xt ....................................................................................................................................... 3 7

6. 3. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ................................................................................................................... 3 7

6. 4

B e n e d e ns c h el d e ................................................................................................................................ 4 1

6. 4. 1

C o nt e xt ....................................................................................................................................... 4 1

6. 4. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ................................................................................................................... 4 1

6. 5

L ei e .................................................................................................................................................... 4 7

6. 5. 1

C o nt e xt ....................................................................................................................................... 4 7

6. 5. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c es ................................................................................................................. 4 7

6. 6

B o v e ns c h el d e .................................................................................................................................... 5 4

6. 6. 1

C o nt e xt ....................................................................................................................................... 5 4

6. 6. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ................................................................................................................... 5 4

6. 7

D e n d er b e k k e n ................................................................................................................................... 6 1

6. 7. 1

C o nt e xt ....................................................................................................................................... 6 1

6. 7. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ................................................................................................................... 6 1

6. 8

Dijl e a n d Z e n n e ................................................................................................................................. 6 7

6. 8. 1

C o nt e xt ....................................................................................................................................... 6 7

6. 8. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ................................................................................................................... 6 7

6. 9

D e m er b e k k e n .................................................................................................................................... 7 3

6. 9 . 1

C o nt e xt ....................................................................................................................................... 7 3

6. 9. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ................................................................................................................... 7 3

6. 1 0

N et e b e k k e n ................................................................................................................................... 7 9

6. 1 0. 1

C o nt e xt ................................................................................................................................... 7 9

6. 1 0. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ............................................................................................................... 7 9

6. 1 1

M e us e ............................................................................................................................................ 8 5

6. 1 1. 1

C o nt e xt ................................................................................................................................... 8 5

6. 1 1. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e ............................................................................................................... 8 5

C o n cl usi o ns a n d r e c o m m e n d ati o ns ........................................................................................................ 9 1

R ef er e n c es ............................................................................................................................................... 9 2

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1

List of o pti miz e d p ar a m et ers f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts ........................................................... A 1

A p p e n di x 2

IJz er C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n ............................................................................................. A 3

A p p e n di x 3

IJz er A ut o c ali br ati o n ............................................................................................................ A4 1

A p p e n di x 4

Br u gs e P ol d ers C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n ........................................................................... A8 9

A p p e n di x 5

Br u gs e P ol d ers - A ut o c ali br ati o n ....................................................................................... A1 1 4

A p p e n di x 6

G e nts e K a n al e n C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n ....................................................................... A1 4 7

A p p e n di x 7

G e nts e K a n al e n A ut o c ali br ati o n. ....................................................................................... A1 5 3

A p p e n di x 8

B e n e n d e ns c h el d e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n. ................................................................... A1 6 1

A p p e n di x 9

B e n e n d e ns c h el d e A ut o c ali br ati o n. .................................................................................... A1 7 4

A p p e n di x 1 0

L ei e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n. ......................................................................................... A1 9 1

A p p e n di x 1 1

L ei e A ut o c ali br ati o n. .......................................................................................................... A2 0 6

A p p e n di x 1 2

B o v e ns c h el d e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n. ......................................................................... A2 3 0

A p p e n di x 1 3

B o v e ns c h el d e A ut o c ali br ati o n. .......................................................................................... A2 5 3

A p p e n di x 1 4

D e n d er b e k k e n C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n. ........................................................................ A2 8 6

A p p e n di x 1 5

D e n d er b e k k e n A ut o c ali br ati o n. ......................................................................................... A3 1 2

A p p e n di x 1 6

Dijl e a n d Z e n n e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n. ....................................................................... A3 4 5

A p p e n di x 1 7

Dijl e a n d Z e n n e A ut o c ali br ati o n. ........................................................................................ A3 7 5

A p p e n di x 1 8

D e m er b e k k e n C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n. ......................................................................... A4 2 3

A p p e n di x 1 9

D e m er b e k k e n A ut o c ali br ati o n. .......................................................................................... A4 6 9

A p p e n di x 2 0

N et e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n. ........................................................................................ A5 4 3

A p p e n di x 2 1

N et e A ut o c ali br ati o n. ......................................................................................................... A5 7 1

A p p e n di x 2 2

M e us e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n. ..................................................................................... A6 0 5

A p p e n di x 2 3

M e us e A ut o c ali br ati o n. ...................................................................................................... A6 4 9

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

VII

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

List of t a bl es T a bl e 1 – List of g a u gi n g st ati o ns o n t h e S c h el dt a n d its tri b ut ari es f or c ali br ati o n of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els .... 5 T a bl e 2 – C at c h m e nts c ali br at e d j oi ntl y b as e d o n o n e g a u gi n g st ati o n ............................................................ 6 T a bl e 3 – List of g a u gi n g st ati o ns o n t h e M e us e a n d its tri b ut ari es f or t h e c ali br ati o n of t h e h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els ........................................................................................................................................................................... 7 T a bl e 4 – Fi n al list of fl o w m e as uri n g st ati o ns f or t h e c ali br ati o n of r ai n -r u n off m o d el p ar a m et ers i n t h e M e us e b asi n .................................................................................................................................................................. 8 T a bl e 5 – N u m b er of r ai n g a u g es p er h y dr o gr a p hi c b asi n ................................................................................. 9 T a bl e 6 – Cl assifi c ati o n of l a n d us e a c c or di n g t o t h e W E T S P A m o d el. ............................................................. 1 1 T a bl e 7 – T e xt ur e cl ass es of t h e s oils us e d f or t h e W E T S P A m o d el ................................................................. 1 2 T a bl e 8 – D ef a ult p ar a m et ers c h ar a ct erizi n g s oil t e xt ur al cl ass es i n t h e W E T S P A m o d el ............................... 1 6 T a bl e 9 – D ef a ult p ar a m et ers c h ar a ct erizi n g l a n d us e cl ass es of t h e W E T S P A m o d el .................................... 1 7 T a bl e 1 0 – C h os e n gl o b al p ar a m et ers s et of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0. ................................................ 1 8 T a bl e 1 1 – W E T S P A p ar a m et ers a n d o pti miz ati o n b o u n d ari es of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0. ............... 1 9 T a bl e 1 2 – List of c at c h m e nts wit h a 5 0 0 x 5 0 0 m r es ol uti o n of S p ati al distri b uti o n m a ps. .............................. 2 1 T a bl e 1 3 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e IJz er b asi n .................................... 2 5 T a bl e 1 4 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e IJz er b asi n ..................................... 2 6 T a bl e 1 5 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e Br u gs e P ol d ers ........................... 3 2 T a bl e 1 6 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e Br u gs e P ol d ers .............................. 3 2 T a bl e 1 7 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e G e nts e K a n al e n .......................... 3 8 T a bl e 1 8 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e G e nts e K a n al e n ........................... 3 8 T a bl e 1 9 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e B e n e d e ns c h el d e b asi n ............... 4 2 T a bl e 2 0 - O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e B e n e d e ns c h el d e b asi n .................. 4 2 T a bl e 2 1 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e L ei e b asi n ................................... 4 8 T a bl e 2 2 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e L ei e b asi n ..................................... 4 8 T a bl e 2 3 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e B o v e ns c h el d e b asi n .................... 5 5 T a bl e 2 4 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e B o v e ns c h el d e b asi n ..................... 5 5 T a bl e 2 5 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e D e n d er b asi n .............................. 6 2 T a bl e 2 6 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e D e n d er b asi n ............................... 6 2 T a bl e 2 7 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e Dijl e a n d Z e n n e b asi ns ............... 6 8 T a b l e 2 8 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e Dijl e a n d Z e n n e b asi ns ................. 6 8 T a bl e 2 9 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e D e m er b asi n ............................... 7 4 T a bl e 3 0 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e D e m er b asi n ................................ 7 4 T a bl e 3 1 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e N et e b asi n .................................. 8 0

VIII

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T a bl e 3 2 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e N et e b asi n ................................... 8 0 T a bl e 3 3 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e M e us e b asi n ............................... 8 6 T a bl e 3 4 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e M e us e b asi n ................................ 8 6

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

L ist of fi g ur es Fi g ur e 1 – T h e l o c ati o n of t h e S c h el dt a n d t h e M e us e b asi n. ........................................................................... 2 Fi g ur e 2 – M a p of g a u g e d a n d u n g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e S c h el dt b asi n, t h e Br u gs e p ol d ers a n d t h e IJz er. 4 Fi g ur e 3 – M a p of g a u g e d a n d u n g a u g e d s u b c at c h m e nts of t h e M e us e b asi n i n B el gi u m ............................... 8 Fi g ur e 4 – Di git al El e v ati o n M o d el of t h e st u d y ar e a. ..................................................................................... 1 0 Fi g ur e 5 – L a n d us e m a p us e d f or t h e W E T S P A m o d el .................................................................................... 1 2 Fi g ur e 6 – S oil m a p us e d f or t h e W E T S P A m o d el ............................................................................................ 1 3 Fi g ur e 7 – Diff er e nt p h ysi c al pr o c ess es si m ul at e d i n t h e W E T S P A m o d el. ..................................................... 1 4 Fi g ur e 8 – C o m p aris o n of diff er e nt distri b uti o n m a p r es ol uti o n o n d ail y dis c h ar g e at t h e o utl et of c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9. ................................................................................................................................................. 2 0 Fi g ur e 9 – All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u als) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt). ............... 2 2 Fi g ur e 1 0 – R es c al e d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt) .................................................................. 2 3 Fi g ur e 1 1 – C at c h m e nts a n d g a u gi n g st ati o ns o n t h e IJz er b asi n. ................................................................... 2 4 Fi g ur e 1 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 2 6 Fi g ur e 1 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) .......................................................................................................................................... 2 7 Fi g ur e 1 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 2 7 Fi g ur e 1 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 2 8 Fi g ur e 1 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0. ............................................................................................................................ 2 8 Fi g ur e 1 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 2 9 Fi g ur e 1 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 2 9 Fi g ur e 1 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 3 0 Fi g ur e 2 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 3 0 Fi g ur e 2 1 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e Br u gs e P ol d ers. .................................................... 3 2 Fi g ur e 2 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 c ali br ati o n p eri o d) ........................................................................................................................................... 3 3 Fi g ur e 2 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 3 3

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 2 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d) ........................................................................................................................................... 3 4 Fi g ur e 2 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 3 4 Fi g ur e 2 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 3 5 Fi g ur e 2 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 3 5 Fi g ur e 2 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e ) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 3 6 Fi g ur e 2 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 3 6 Fi g ur e 3 0 – S u b c at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e G e nts e K a n al e n c at c h m e nt ............................ 3 7 Fi g ur e 3 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0, ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 3 8 Fi g ur e 3 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) .......................................................................................................................................... 3 9 Fi g ur e 3 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 3 9 Fi g ur e 3 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d) ........................................................................................................................................... 4 0 Fi g ur e 3 5 – S u b c at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e B e n e d e ns c h el d e c at c h m e nt .......................... 4 1 Fi g ur e 3 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e n t V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 4 2 Fi g ur e 3 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 (C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 4 3 Fi g ur e 3 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 4 3 Fi g ur e 3 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 (V ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 4 4 Fi g ur e 4 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 4 5 Fi g ur e 4 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 (C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 4 5 Fi g ur e 4 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 4 6 Fi g ur e 4 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 ( V ali dati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 4 6 Fi g ur e 4 4 – S u b c at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e L ei e c at c h m e nt ............................................... 4 7 Fi g ur e 4 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 4 9

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 (C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 4 9 Fi g ur e 4 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 5 0 Fi g ur e 4 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 (V ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 5 0 Fi g ur e 4 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0. ............................................................................................................................ 5 1 Fi g ur e 5 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 5 2 Fi g ur e 5 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 5 2 Fi g ur e 5 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 5 3 Fi g ur e 5 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d s i m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 5 3 Fi g ur e 5 4 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e B o v e ns c h el d e b asi n. ............................................ 5 4 Fi g ur e 5 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 5 6 Fi g ur e 5 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( C ali brati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 5 6 Fi g ur e 5 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d)........................................................................................................................................... 5 7 Fi g ur e 5 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( V ali dati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 5 7 Fi g ur e 5 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0. ............................................................................................................................ 5 8 Fi g ur e 6 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( b l u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 5 9 Fi g ur e 6 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul a ti v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 5 9 Fi g ur e 6 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d)........................................................................................................................................... 6 0 Fi g ur e 6 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 6 0 Fi g ur e 6 4 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e D e n d er b asi n. ...................................................... 6 1 Fi g ur e 6 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 6 3 Fi g ur e 6 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) .......................................................................................................................................... 6 3 Fi g ur e 6 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( V ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 6 4

XII

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) .......................................................................................................................................... 6 4 Fi g ur e 6 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 6 5 Fi g ur e 7 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 6 5 Fi g ur e 7 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 ( V ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 6 6 Fi g ur e 7 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 ( V ali br ati o n p eri o d). ........................................................................................................................................ 6 6 Fi g ur e 7 3 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e Dijl e a n d Z e n n e b asi ns. ........................................ 6 7 Fi g ur e 7 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 6 9 Fi g ur e 7 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 6 9 Fi g ur e 7 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 0 Fi g ur e 7 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 0 Fi g ur e 7 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 7 1 Fi g ur e 7 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 7 1 Fi g ur e 8 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 2 Fi g ur e 8 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 2 Fi g ur e 8 2 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e D e m er b asi n. ....................................................... 7 3 Fi g ur e 8 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 7 5 Fi g ur e 8 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 7 5 Fi g ur e 8 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( V alid ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 6 Fi g ur e 8 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 6 Fi g ur e 8 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 7 7 Fi g ur e 8 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 7 7 Fi g ur e 8 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 8

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

XIII

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 8 Fi g ur e 9 1 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e p oi nts f or t h e N et e b asi n .................................................................... 7 9 Fi g ur e 9 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 8 1 Fi g ur e 9 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 8 1 Fi g ur e 9 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 2 Fi g ur e 9 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 2 Fi g ur e 9 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 8 3 Fi g ur e 9 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 8 3 Fi g ur e 9 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 4 Fi g ur e 9 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 4 Fi g ur e 1 0 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 8 7 Fi g ur e 1 0 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 8 7 Fi g ur e 1 0 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 8 Fi g ur e 1 0 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d). .......................................................................................................................................... 8 8 Fi g ur e 1 0 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( C ali br ati o n). .................................................................................................................................................... 8 9 Fi g ur e 1 0 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d). ......................................................................................................................................... 8 9 Fi g ur e 1 0 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( V ali d ati o n). ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 0 Fi g ur e 1 0 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d) ........................................................................................................................................... 9 0

XI V

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

I ntr o d u cti o n

1. 1

O bj e cti v es

1. 2

D es cri pti o n of t h e st u d y ar e a

T h e st u d y ar e a c o v ers t h e w h ol e ar e a of Fl a n d ers a n d W all o ni a i n B el gi u m a n d s o m e r e gi o ns of Fr a n c e (Fi g ur e 1 ). Fl a n d ers s h ar es its b or d ers wit h W all o ni a i n t h e s o ut h. T h e r est of t h e b or d er is s h ar e d wit h t h e N et h erl a n ds i n t h e n ort h a n d e ast, a n d wit h Fr a n c e a n d t h e N ort h S e a i n t h e w est. T w o m ai n g e o gr a p hi c al r e gi o ns c o v er Fl a n d ers : t h e c o ast al b asi n pl ai n i n t h e n ort h-w est a n d a c e ntr al pl ai n i n t h e r e m ai ni n g ar e as. A gri c ult ur e d o mi n at es t h e l a n d us e i n Fl a n d ers wit h 6 1 % of t ot al ar e a, m ai nl y li v est o c k a n d ar a bl e f ar mi n g. Fl a n d ers c o v ers p art of t h e i nt er n ati o n al S c h el dt a n d M e us e ri v er b asi n. T h e t ot al h y dr ol o gi c al s yst e m of t h e Fl a n d ers ar e a is distri b ut e d o v er diff er e nt ri v er b asi ns of diff er e nt siz es. T h e m ai n ri v er b asi ns wit hi n t h e ar e a of t h e Fl a n d ers i n cl u d e Z e es c h el d e, D e n d er, D e m er, N et e, L ei e, a n d B o v e ns c h el d e (I S C, 2 0 0 5). T h e M e us e ar e a c o v er s a n ar e a of a p pr o xi m at el y 3 6 0 0 k m ², wit h its 9 5 0 km l o n g ri v er ( Br a u n w e ns, A., et al., 2 0 1 1). T h e M e us e ori gi n at es i n C h a m p a g n e -Ar d e n e i n Fr a n c e a n d fl o ws t hr o u g h Fr a n c e, B el gi u m a n d t h e N et h erl a n ds t o r e a c h t h e H ari n g vli et s e a s tr et c h. T h e b asi n c o v ers fi v e c o u ntri es i n cl u di n g Fr a n c e, B el gi u m, L u x e m b o ur g, G er m a n y, a n d t h e N et h erl a n ds. T h e M e us e is c h ar a ct eriz e d b y a r ai nf all e v a p or ati o n r e gi m e wit h hi g h r u n off i n wi nt er a n d l o w i n s u m m er. Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T h e cli m at e of t h e S c h el dt a n d t h e M e us e b asi n is m ariti m e t e m p er at e, wit h si g nifi c a nt pr e ci pit ati o n i n all s e as o ns. T h e a v er a g e t e m p er at ur e is 3° C i n J a n u ar y a n d 2 1 ° C i n J ul y. T h e a v er a g e pr e ci pit ati o n is 6 5 milli m etr es i n J a n u ar y, a n d 7 8 milli m etr es i n J ul y.

Fi g ur e 1 – T h e l o c ati o n of t h e S c h el dt a n d t h e M e us e b a si n.

1. 3

Str u ct ur e of t h e r e p ort

I n a first s e cti o n, t h e a d dr ess e d c at c h m e nts ar e d efi n e d a n d r eli a bl e g a u gi n g st ati o ns s el e ct e d ( S e cti o n 2 ). S e c o n dl y, r ai nf all a n d e v a p otr a ns pir ati on ar e i nt er p ol at e d f or t h e s el e ct e d c at c h m e nts, a c c or di n g t o t h e T hi ess e n p ol y g o n m et h o d ( S e cti o n 3 ). A d diti o n all y, i n t his st a g e t h e r e q uir e d s p ati all y distri b ut e d m a ps ar e pr e p ar e d as i n p ut f or t h e W E T S P A m o d el. T h e g e n er al s tr u ct ur e a n d p ar a m et ers of t h e W E T S P A m o d el ar e o utli n e d i n S e cti o n 4 w hil e t h e c ali br ati o n str at e g y a n d b asi c l o gi c b e hi n d t h e a ut o m at e d c ali br ati o n al g orit h m ar e e x pl ai n e d i n S e cti o n 5 . O n c e all W E T S P A m o d els f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts ar e c ali br at e d, fl o w is si m ul at e d f or 4 7 y e ars ( 1 9 6 7-2 0 1 3). U n g a u g e d c at c h m e nts ar e si m ul at e d usi n g p ar a m et ers of a n e ar b y c at c h m e nt wit h si mil ar c h ar a ct eristi cs. R es ults ar e s y nt h etiz e d i n S e cti o n 6 a n d d et ail e d i n t h e a p p e n di c es. S e cti o n 7 pr e s e nts c o n cl usi o ns of t h e c ali br ati o n a n d s o m e r e c o m m e n d ati o ns t o c o nsi d er w h e n usi n g t h e c ali br at e d W E T S P A m o d els i n t h e n e xt st e ps of t h e pr oj e ct. 2

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt d eli n e ati o n

2. 1

G e n er al

T h e i n p uts of t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el ar e dis c h ar g e ti m e s eri es at t h e u p p er b o u n d ari es a n d e ntri es of tri b ut ari es i n t h e m o d ell e d w at er n et w or k. T his r ai nf all r u n off dis c h ar g e is si m ul at e d b y m e a ns of o n e of t h e a b o v e m e nti o n e d h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els ( N A M, P D M, V H M, W E T S P A). A p art fr o m t h e S c h el dt c at c h m e nt as s u c h, t h e IJz er b asi n a n d t h e c at c h m e nt of t h e Br u gs e P ol d ers ar e als o i n cl u d e d i n t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el a n d t h er ef or e als o i n cl u d e d t o t his st u d y. T h e m a p o n Fi g ur e 1 s h o ws t h e m ai n ri v er b asi ns i n cl u d e d i n t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el. I n t his r e p ort, r es ults will b e str u ct ur e d g e o gr a p hi c all y p er b asi n. D eli n e at e d h y dr ol o gi c al s u b c at c h m e nts f or t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el w er e c oll e ct e d i n 2 0 1 0 b as e d o n p ast m o d e lli n g st u di es ( D e B o e c k et al. 2 0 1 1) a n d u p d at e d wit hi n t h e fr a m e w or k of t h e pr es e nt st u d y. Fi g ur e 2 s h o ws a n o v er vi e w of t h e d eli n e at e d c at c h m e nts i n t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el. F or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts, w h er e a ti m e s eri es of m e as ur e d dis c h ar g e is a v ail a bl e, t h e W E T S P A m o d els ar e c ali br at e d. S o m e of t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts i n t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el ar e s u b di vi d e d i n diff er e nt s u b c at c h m e nts t o distri b ut e t h e i nfl o w o v er t h e m o d ell e d ri v er str et c h es. E a c h of t h es e s u b c at c h m e nts i n h erits t h e p ar a m et ers of t h e m ai n g a u g e d c at c h m e nt. A n e x a m pl e of t his is t h e L ei e c at c h m e nt u pstr e a m of t h e m e as uri n g st ati o n t h e M e n e n, w hi c h is s u b di vi d e d i nt o 2 7 s u b c at c h m e nts. T h e c at c h m e nt its elf is c ali br at e d o n t h e dis c h ar g e ti m es eri es of t h e g a u gi n g st ati o n t h e M e n e n. Wit hi n t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el t h e r ai nf all r u n off of e a c h of t h es e 2 7 s u b c at c h m e nts is c al c ul at e d b as e d o n its p arti c ul ar i nt er p ol at e d r ai nf all - a n d e v a p or ati o n s eri es a n d li n k e d i n di vi d u all y t o t h e a p pr o pri at e m o d ell e d w at er c o urs e. F or m or e d et ail a b o ut t h e c h oi c es a n d m et h o d ol o g y of c at c h m e nt d eli n e ati o n, pl e as e s e e D e B o e c k et al. ( 2 0 1 1) 1 . U n g a u g e d m o d els i n h erit W E T S P A p ar a m et ers fr o m si mil ar n ei g h b ori n g c at c h m e nts. All c at c h m e nts of t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el r e c ei v e d a u n i q u e i nf or m ati v e c o d e, as d efi n e d i n t h e pr e vi o us p h as e of t h e pr oj e ct ( D e B o e c k et al., 2 0 1 1). E a c h c o d e c o nsists of 1 2 c h ar a ct ers, r el ati v e t o t h e c at c h m e nt l o c ati o n, m ai n w at er c o urs e a n d g a u gi n g st ati o n: • • • • •

C h ar a ct er 1 : r e gi o n w h er e t h e c at c h m e nt is l o c at e d ( V: Fl a n d ers; W: W all o ni a; N: N et h erl a n ds; F: Fr a n c e) C h ar a ct ers 2 a n d 3 : n u m b er of t h e Fl e mis h h y dr o gr a p hi c b asi n t o w hi c h t h e c at c h m e nt b el o n gs. C h ar a ct ers 4, 5 a n d 6 : i niti als of t h e m ai n w at er c o urs e C h ar a ct ers 7, 8 a n d 9 : first t hr e e di gits of t h e g a u gi n g st ati o n c o d e ( or 3 l ett er i niti als) f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts , a n d “ 0 0 0 ” f or u n g a u g e d c at c h m e nts. C h ar a ct ers 1 0, 1 1 a n d 1 2 : t hr e e di git-s uffi x t h at e ns ur e c at c h m e nt c o d e diff er e nti ati o n.

W L 2 0 1 1 R 7 2 4 _ 0 4 c _r e v 2 _ 1 _ D O 3. d o c Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 2 – M a p of g a u g e d a n d u n g a u g e d c at c h m e nt s of t h e S c h el dt b asi n, t h e Br u gs e p ol d er s a n d t h e IJz er.

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

2. 2

G a u g e d c at c h m e nts i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n

T a bl e 1 b el o w gi v es t h e list of g a u g e d st ati o n us e d f or c ali br ati o n of t h e r ai nf all -r u n off m o d els. C at c h m e nts t h at w ere c ali br at e d j oi ntl y ar e list e d i n T a bl e 2 . T a bl e 1 – List of g a u gi n g st ati o ns o n t h e S c h el dt a n d it s tri b ut ari es f or c ali br ati o n of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els

G a u gi n g st ati o n ( c o d e - w at er c o ur s e; l o c ati o n)

DS G

A r e a ( k m²)

G a u g e d y e ar s

4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k

V01 H A N488180

78.6

1 9 9 4 -2 0 1 6

4 6 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Ijz er; R o es br u g g e H ari n g e

V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9

3 9 3 .0

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 6

4 9 5 1 0 1 0 2 - I e p erl e e; Z ui ds c h ot e

V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0

6 3 .4

1 9 8 3 -2 0 1 4

4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 - K e m m el b e e k; B o e zi n g e

V01KE M4920 60

7 3 .9

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 5

4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m

V01 M AR496120

76.1

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 6

4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2 - P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n

V01P OP491030

8 4 .9

1 9 8 4 -2 0 1 6

4 9 9 1 0 1 0 2 - St e e n b e e k; M er k e m

V 0 1SS V 4 9 9 1 4 0

1 6 .1

1 9 9 0 -2 0 0 9

4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 – E d e, M al d e g e m

V02E DE442120

45.5

1 9 8 3 - 20 1 6

4 2 6 1 0 1 0 2 - H erts b er g e b e e k; O ost k a m p

V02 HE R426010

77.3

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 6

4 2 2 0 1 0 2 - K er k e b e e k, Si nt -Mi c hi els

V02KE R422030

6 2 .7

1 9 8 3 -2 0 0 8

4 2 5 1 0 1 0 2 - Ri vi er b e e k; O ost k a m p

V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0

64.0

1 9 8 3 -2 0 1 6

4 4 6 5 6 1 2 2 - P o e k e b e e k; N e v el e

V03P OE446000

106.8

1 9 8 3 -2 0 1 0

3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e

V 0 4 M OL 0 3 6 1 1 0

3 2 .6

1 9 6 6 -2 0 1 6

3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n

V04 M O M037100

6 7 .3

1 9 6 6 -2 0 1 6

3 8 6 8 0 1 2 2 - L ei e t e M e n e n

F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9

2981.8

1 9 9 8 -2 0 1 6

4 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H e ul e b e e k; H e ul e

V05 HE U403210

9 1 .9

1 9 7 2 -2 0 1 6

4 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n d el; O ostr oz e b e k e

V05 M A N401230

2 5 8 .4

1 9 6 7 -2 0 1 3

3 2 5 8 0 1 2 2 - B o v e ns c h el d e; B o ss uit

F06 B OS325999

5 2 1 7 .6

2 0 0 1 -2 0 1 4

3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e

V06 M A A347160

4 8 .7

1 9 7 2 -2 0 1 6

3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m

V06Z W A3 4219 0

1 1 2 .1

1 9 7 2 -2 0 1 6

L 5 4 1 2 - A m o u gi es - R h os n e s

W 0 6 R H OL 5 4 1 0 0

1 6 1 .9

2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 6

2 8 5 1 0 1 0 2 - B ell e b e e k, Ess e n e

V 0 7 B EL 2 8 5 0 7 0

88.7

2 8 9 7 0 1 0 2 - M ar k e, Vi a n e

V07 M AR289015

1 7 3 .9

1 9 7 6 -2 0 1 6

2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e

V07 M OE282100

4 6 .4

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 6

2 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, G er a ar ds b er g e n

V07 M O G288020

23.1

1 9 8 5 -2 0 1 4

2 7 0 8 -1 0 5 0 D e n dr e; L essi n es

W 0 7 D E NL E S 9 9 9

511.8

1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 -B ar e b e e k , El e wijt

V08B AR111370

6 9 .9

1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 4

9 3 1 0 1 0 2 - Dijl e, Wils el e

V 0 8 DIJ 0 9 3 4 0 0

8 8 6 .9

1 9 7 4 -2 0 1 4

2 3 3 1 0 1 0 2 - Z u u n b e e k, St Pi et ersl e e u w

V08Z U U233 100

64.8

1 9 8 5 -2 0 1 6

2 3 7 1 -1 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es

W 0 8S A M R O N 0 0 0

1 3 3 .6

1 9 8 9 -2 0 1 6

L 5 6 7 0 -S e n ett e, R o n q ui er es

W 0 8S E NL 5 6 0 1 0

7 0 .4

1 9 7 7 -2 0 1 6

1 9 5 1 -1 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e

W 0 8SE NT U B0 3 0

215.9

1 9 7 5 -2 0 1 6

1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - D e m er; H ass elt

V09 DE M136000

2 5 5 .1

1 9 9 7 -2 0 1 6

1 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - G et e; H al e n

V09 GET152080

8 0 0 .4

1 9 6 9 -2 0 1 3

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

G a u gi n g st ati o n ( c o d e - w at er c o ur s e; l o c ati o n)

DS G

A r e a ( k m²)

G a u g e d y e ar s

1 6 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H er k, K er mt

V09 HE R163010

2 7 4 .6

1 9 7 7 -2 0 1 6

1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e

V 0 9 H UL 1 4 7 1 5 0

8 0 .1

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 6

1 4 3 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e L osti n g; W e z e m a al

V 0 9L O S 1 4 3 3 0 0

1 5 .2

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 6

1 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n g el b e e k; L u m m e n

V09 M A N161040

102.9

1 9 8 3 -2 0 1 1

1 4 4 1 0 1 0 2 - M ott e; R ill a ar

V09 M OT144270

3 3 .6

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 0

1 4 5 1 0 1 0 2 - V el p; R a ns b er g

V 0 9 V EL 1 4 5 1 0 0

9 6 .8

1 9 6 9 -2 0 1 6

1 4 1 1 0 1 0 2 - R ots el a ar ; Wi n g e

V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0

64.7

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 6

1 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w art e B e e k; L u m m e n

V09Z W A1 4812 0

9 6 .2

1 9 8 3 -2 0 1 6

7 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e N et e/ G e el Z a m m el

V10 G NE076999

2 4 3 .5

1 9 8 5 -2 0 1 3

5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k

V10K NE052000

584.7

1 9 8 3 -2 0 1 6

6 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, P ull e

V10 M OP062140

7 7 .3

1 9 8 6 -2 0 1 4

8 2 1 0 1 0 2 – Wi m p, Wi e k e v orst

V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0

6 5 .4

1 9 8 9 -2 0 0 7

T a bl e 2 – C at c h m e nts c ali br at e d j oi ntl y b as e d o n o n e g a u gi n g st ati o n

G a u gi n g st ati o n ( c o d e - w at er c o ur s e; l o c ati o n)

J oi nt c o d e

C at c h m e nts

4 6 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Ijz er; R o es br u g g e H ari n g e

F 0 1IJ Z 4 6 8 0 0 0

V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 0 1 0 F01YSE4680 00

3 8 6 8 0 1 2 2 - L ei e t e M e n e n

F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 0 0 1

3 2 5 8 0 1 2 2 - B o v e ns c h el d e; B oss uit

F06 B OS325001:

F05 BEC386023

F05 DE U386090

V 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 1 8 0

F05 BEC386025

F05 DE U386110

F 0 5 L OI 3 8 6 0 3 5

F05B O U386005

F05 DE U386120

F 0 5L Y S 3 8 6 0 0 0

F 0 5 CL A 3 8 6 0 1 7

F05 DE U386130

F 0 5L Y S 3 8 6 0 1 0

F 0 5 CL A 3 8 6 0 2 0

F05 DE U386140

F 0 5L Y S 3 8 6 0 1 5

F05 DE U386040

F05 DE U386150

F 0 5L Y S 3 8 6 1 1 5

F05 DE U386050

F05 DE U386160

F05 M AR386070

F05 DE U386060

F 0 5L A W 3 8 6 0 1 8

F05 M AR386100

F05 DE U386080

F 0 5L A W 3 8 6 0 3 0

W 0 5L Y S 3 8 6 1 7 0

F06 B OS325000

F06E RC325030

W 06 B OS 3250 95

F06 B OS325015

F06 H O G325070

W 06 B OS 3251 05

F06 B OS325016

F06R H O325060

W 06 B OS 3251 15

F06 B OS325017

F 0 6S C A 3 2 5 0 2 0

W 0 6 H AI 3 2 5 0 8 0

F06 B OS325018

F 0 6S C A 3 2 5 0 2 5

W 0 6 H AI 3 2 5 0 8 5

F06 B OS325019

F 0 6S EL 3 2 5 0 4 0

W 0 6 H AI 3 2 5 0 9 0

F06EC A325050

F 0 6SE N 3 2 5 0 1 0

1 4 4 1 0 1 0 2 - M ott e; Rill a ar

V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0

V 0 9L O S 1 4 3 3 0 0

7 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e N et e; G e el -Z a m m el

V10 G NE076999

V 1 0 GL A 0 8 6 0 2 0

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

2. 3

G a u g e d c at c h m e nts i n t h e M e us e b a si n

I n a d diti o n t o t h e a b o v e m e nti o n e d c at c h m e nts, w hi c h ar e m ai nl y c orr es p o n di n g t o t h e c at c h m e nts d eli n e at e d i n t h e first pr oj e ct c o n c er ni n g t h e w at er b al a n c e m o d el ( W L-0 9 -4 6), t h e M e us e ri v er is r efi n e d i n t h e c urr e nt w at er b al a n c e m o del. I n or d er t o pr o d u ce dis c h ar g e ti m e s eri es as i n p uts f or t h e M e us e s yst e m b et w e e n M o nsi n a n d M a astri c ht, t h e h y dr ol o g y of t h e c o ntri b uti n g c at c h m e nts i n Fr a n c e a n d W all o ni a n e e ds t o b e i n cl u d e d. T h e M e us e b asi n is t h e s e c o n d bi g g est h y dr o gr a p hi c district of B el gi u m ( a b o ut 2 0 . 4 5 0 k m² i n Vis é) a n d t h e ri v er h as its s o ur c e i n Fr a n c e i n P o uill y-e n B assi g n y a n d e nt ers B el gi u m i n A gi m o nt. T h e g a u gi n g st ati o n of C h o oz, l o c at e d i n Fr a n c e, is t h e cl os est t o t h e W all o o n b or d er. T h e m ai n tri b ut ari es of t h e W all o o n M e us e ar e t h e S a m br e (a b o ut 2. 7 0 0 k m²), m e eti n g t h e M e us e i n N a m ur, a n d t h e O urt h e ( a b o ut 3. 6 0 0 k m²) i n Li è g e. Fi g ur e 3 s h o ws a m a p of t h e M e us e b asi n i n W all o ni a. T h e d el i n e ati o n of t h e c at c h m e nts a n d t h e distin cti o n b et w e e n u n g a u g e d a n d g a u g e d c at c h m e nts is d o n e b y M ar o y et al. ( 2 0 2 1 ). O n Fi g ur e 3 , fl o w m e as uri n g st ati o ns ( y ell o w d ots) a n d t h eir c orr es p o n di n g c at c h m e nts ar e dis pl a y e d . 1 7 us a bl e g a u gi n g st ati o ns ar e s el e ct e d ( T a bl e 3 ). C h o oz st ati o n (l o c at e d i n Fr a n c e) is c o nsi d er e d t o m e as ur e t h e e nt eri n g fl o w of t h e M e us e at t h e Fr e n c h b or d er, w hil e S olr e st ati o n is r e c or di n g t h e e nt eri n g fl o w f or t h e S a m br e.

T a bl e 3 – List of g a u gi n g st ati o ns o n t h e M e us e a n d it s tri b ut ari es f or t h e c ali br ati o n of t h e h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els

C at c h m e nt

St ati o n / Ri v er

H oy o ux

M ar c hi n / H o y o u x

M e h ai g n e

W a n z e / M e h ai g n e

H a ut e M e us e

H er o c k/ L ess e

H a ut e M e us e

S u b c at c h m e nt I D

A v ail a bl e d at a

O w n er

242

W11 H OY5990

1 / 0 1 / 2 0 0 1 -3 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 1 3

D G O2

356

W11 ME H5820

1 / 0 1 / 2 0 0 1 -3 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 1 3 ( e x c e pt 2 0 0 3)

D G O3

1156

W 1 1L E S 6 6 1 0

1/ 0 1/ 2 0 0 1 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 1 3

D G O3

Y v oir/ B o c q

230

W11B OC8134

1/ 0 1/ 1 9 7 9 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 1 4

D G O2

H a ut e M e us e

W ar n a nt/ M oli g n é e

125

W 1 1 M OL 8 1 6 3

1/ 0 1/ 1 9 6 9 -3 1 /1 2/ 2 0 1 4

D G O2

H a ut e M e us e

H asti èr es/ H er m et o n

166

W11 HER8622

1/ 0 1/ 1 9 6 9 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 1 4

D G O2

H a ut e M e u s e

C h o oz/ M e us e

10120

F11 M A A8702

1 / 0 1 / 1 9 9 0 -3 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 1 4

D G O2

O urt h e

A n gl e ur 2 bis / O urt h e

3612

W11 O UR5805

1 / 0 1 / 1 9 7 4 -3 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 1 4

D G O2

S a m br e

Ais e a u/ Bi es m e

W 1 1 B IE 5 4 4 2

1/ 0 1/ 2 0 0 1 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 1 3

D G O3

S a m br e

T h ui n/ Bi es m e l' e a u

W 1 1 BL E 6 6 3 0

1/ 0 1/ 2 0 0 1 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 1 3

D G O3

S a m br e

J e m e p p es-s-O/ Or n e a u

211

W11 OR N7241

1/ 0 1/ 2 0 0 7 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 1 3

D G O3

S a m br e

J a mi o ul x/ E a u d' H e ur e

322

W11E D H7711

1/ 0 1/ 1 9 9 5 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 1 4

D G O2

S a m br e

Wi h eri es /H a nt es

142

W11 H A N7944

1/ 0 1/ 1 9 8 5 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 1 4

D G O2

S a m br e

S olr e/ S a m br e

1188

F 1 1S A M 7 4 8 7

1/ 0 1/ 1 9 9 8 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 1 5

D G O2

S a m br e

S alzi n n e R o n et

2669

W11S A M7319

1 / 0 7 / 2 0 0 6 -3 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 1 4

D G O2

B er wij n

M o eli n g e n / B er wij n

128

W11 BE R551010

1 / 0 1 / 1 9 9 1 -3 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 1 4

V M M

J e k er

K a n n e /J e k er

465.5

W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0

1 / 0 1 / 1 9 9 3 -3 1 / 1 2 / 2 0 1 4

V M M

Fi n al v ersi o n

Ar e a ( k m²)

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3 – M a p of g a u g e d a n d u n g a u g e d s u b c at c h m e nt s of t h e M e us e b a si n i n B el gi u m

B e c a us e of t h e l ar g e w or ki n g s c al e, a n d b e c a us e of li mit e d a c c ess t o d at a a b o ut W all o o n w at er m a n a g e m e nt, q uit e l ar g e s u b c at c h m e nts w er e fi n all y s el e ct e d t o m o d el t h e M e us e b asi n ( T a bl e 4 ). D e p e n di n g o n a v ail a bilit y of r eli a bl e d at a, c ali br ati o n p eri o ds of a b o ut 5 y e ars w er e s el e ct e d i n t h e m ost r e c e nt y e ars. S u c h l o n g c a li br ati o n p eri o ds w er e p ossi bl e t h a n ks t o t h e m o d el f ast c o m p ut ati o n ti m e. V ali d ati o n w as als o p erf o r m e d o n t h e p eri o d of a b o ut 5 y e ars wit h dis c h ar g e m e as ur e m e nts. T a bl e 4 – Fi n al li st of fl o w m e as uri n g st ati o ns f or t h e c ali br ati o n of r ai n -r u n off m o d el p ar a m et er s i n t h e M e us e b asi n

B asi n

St ati o n / Ri v er

H oy o ux M e h ai g n e “ H a ut e M e us e ” ( M e us e u pstr. fr o m Pr of o n d e vill e) “ Fr e n c h M e us e ” ( M e us e u pstr. C h o oz) O urt h e

M ar c hi n/ H o y o u x W a nz e/ M e h ai g n e Pr of o n d e vill e/ M e us e

S a m br e B er wij n J e k er

C h o oz/ M e us e A n gl e ur 2 bis/ O urt h e ( c al c ul at e d) S alzi n n e R o n et/ S a m br e M o eli n g e n Kan ne

St ati o n n u m b er 5990 5820 c al c ul at e d

Ar e a ( k m²) d el i n e ati o n 242 356 12586

S u b c at c h m e nt I D W11 H OY5990 W11 ME H5820 W 11 M A A P R OF

C ali br ati o n p eri o d 2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3 2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3 2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3

8702 5805

10120 3612

F11 M A A8702 W11 O UR5805

2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3 2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 2

7319

2669 2

W 1 1S A M 7 3 1 9

2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 3

551 553

128 4 6 5. 5

W11 BE R551010 W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0

2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 4 2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3

S urf a c e ar e a dr ai ni n g t o t h e c a n al Br uss els -C h arl er oi is e x cl u d e d fr o m t h e S a m br e a n d A m a y c at c h m e nt. 8

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

I n p ut d at a pr e pr o c essi n g

3. 1 T hi ess e n p ol y g o n m et h o d I nt er p ol at e d pr e ci pit ati o n w as pr o d u c e d f or e a c h c at c h m e nt a c c or di n g t o t h e T hi ess e n p ol y g o n m et h o d, usi n g H y dr @ (I M D C, 2 0 1 0). R ai nf all a n d e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n ar e i nt er p ol at e d usi n g w ei g hts i n v ers el y pr o p orti o n al t o t h e dist a n c e t o t h e w e at h er st ati o n, usi n g m e as ur e m e nts a v ail a bl e f or e a c h ti m e st e p . B e c a us e of t h e l ar g e s c al e a n d t h e l o n g t er m n at ur e of ti m es eri es us e d i n t his st u d y, a d ail y ti m e st e p is us e d. F or c o nsist e n c y r e as o ns, c ali br ati o n is als o b as e d o n d ail y ti m e s eri es. B ot h m et e or ol o gi c al a n d dis c h ar g e ti m e s eri es ar e t h us s a m pl e d at a d ail y ti m e st e p.

3. 2 Pr e ci pit ati o n T hi ess e n pr e ci pit ati o n n e e d e d t o b e c al c ul at e d f or all d eli n e at e d s u b c at c h m e nts ( S e cti o n 2 ). S o ur c e d at a c o nsists h er e b y of r ai nf all m e as ur e m e nts fr o m 1 9 6 7 t o 2 0 1 3, s pr e a d o v er t h e e ntir e m o d el ar e a a n d ar o u n d. T h e S c h el dt c at c h m e nt e xt e n ds o v er Fr a n c e, Fl a n d ers, W all o ni a a n d t h e N et h erl a n ds. Pr e ci pit ati o n d at a w as t h us g at h er e d fr o m i nst a n c es i n B el gi u m, N et h erl a n ds a n d Fr a n c e. F or B el gi u m, pr e ci pit ati o n d at a w as g at h er e d fr o m K MI ( T h e R o y al M et e o r ol o gi c al i nstit ut e) a n d S P W ( P u bli c S er vi c es of W all o ni a). F or Fr a n c e, d at a w as g at h er e d fr o m M ét é o Fr a n c e. Si n c e t h e pr e vi o us N A M c ali br ati o n st u d y i n Fl a n d ers ( D e B o e c k et al. 2 0 1 1), r eli a bilit y of t h e r ai nf all i nt er p ol ati o n w as gr e atl y i n cr e as e d f or th e Fr e n c h L ei e a n d B o v e ns c h el d e ( dis c uss e d i n Mi c hi els e n et al., 2 0 2 1 ). D u e t o a d diti o n al d at a fr o m t h e Fr e n c h w e at h er st ati o ns, t h e a m o u nt of r ai n g au g es f or t h e t h e B o v e ns c h el d e a n d L ei e (i n cl u di n g t h e Fr e n c h p art) i n cr e as es t o 4 6 r ai n g a u g es a n d 3 0 r e s pe cti v el y ( T a bl e 5 ). T a bl e 5 – N u m b er of r ai n g a u g es p er h y dr o gr a p hi c b asi n

A r e a ( k m²) 3

N u m b er of s u b c at c h m e nts ( g a u g e d a n d u n g a u g e d)

N u m b er of r ai n g a u g e s

B e n e d e ns c h el d e

1 704

B o v e ns c h el d e

5 380

Br u gs e P ol d ers

1 046

D e m er

2 334

D e n d er

1 384

Dijl e e n Z e n n e

2 450

917

Ijz er

1 046

L ei e

3 886

N et e

1 673

H y dr o gr a p hi c b asi n

G e nts e K a n al e n

ANON Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

3. 3

E v a p otr a ns pir ati o n

W h er e as t h er e is a l ot of pr e ci pit ati o n i n p ut d at a, it d o es n’t a p pl y f or e v a p or ati o n d at a. T hi ess e n e v a p or ati o n d at a is v er y s c ar c e. As a n e x a m pl e, f or t h e e ntir e p eri o d (fr o m 1 9 6 7 -2 0 1 3), t h er e w as o nl y o n e a cti v e P E st ati o n i n Fr a n c e, l o c at e d i n L a n gr es, 1 0 k m o utsi d e t h e s o ut h er n m ost p art of t h e S c h el dt b asi n. T h e e v a p or ati o n p er c at c h m e nt w as c al c ul at e d b as e d o n i nt er p ol ati o n of P E d at a w hi c h w as alr e a d y a v ail a bl e fr o m t h e S c h el dt a n d t h e Me us e b asi n ( a c o m bi n ati o n of U c cl e a n d H er e nt als d at a). All i nt er p ol at e d e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n ti m es eri es a r e pr a cti c all y i d e nti c al b e c a us e of t h eir g e o gr a p hi c al pr o xi mit y.

3. 4

S p ati al distri b uti o n m a ps

3. 4. 1

D E M ( Di git al El e v ati o n m a p)

T h e Di git al El e v ati o n M o d el o bt ai n e d fr o m t w o diff er e nt ar e a is o bt ai n e d fr o m t h e G 5 0 x 5 0 r es ol uti o n t o b e us e d

us e d t o m o d el t h e M e us e a n d S c h el dt b asi ns wit hi n B el gi u m a n d Fr a n c e w as s o ur c e s. A 5 x 5 m r es ol uti o n D E M is a v ail a bl e f or B el gi u m, w hil e t h e r e m ai ni n g M E S R D A pr oj e ct wit h a r es ol uti o n of 2 5 x 2 5 m. B ot h D E M’s ar e r es a m pl e d t o a as i n p ut la y er i n t h e W E T S P A m o d el (Fi g ur e 4 ).

Fi g ur e 4 – Di git al El e v ati o n M o d el of t h e st u d y ar e a.

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

3. 4. 2

L a n d Us e

L a n d C o v er G e o gr a p hi c I nf or m ati o n S yst e m m a ps ar e a v ail a bl e fr o m t h e C O RI N E ( C o or di n ati o n of I nf or m ati o n o n t h e E n vir o n m e nt). I n or d er t o b e a bl e t o us e t his r ast er d at a i n a W E T S P A m o d el, attri b ut es ar e r e cl assifi e d t o m at c h t o t h e W E T S P A l a n d us e cl ass es as pr es e nt e d i n T a bl e 6 . R es ol uti o n is r es a m pl e d t o 5 0 x 5 0 m ( Fi g ur e 5 ). T a bl e 6 – Cl assifi c ati o n of l a n d us e a c c or di n g t o t h e W E T S P A m o d el.

C ori n e Code 111 112 121 122 123 124 131 132 133 141 142 211 222 231 242 243 311 312 313 321 322 324 331 411 412 421 423 511 512 522 523

Fi n al v ersi o n

D e s cri pti o n ( D ut c h) A a n e e n g esl ot e n b e b o u wi n g Dis c o nti n u e b e b o u wi n g I n d ustri e- of h a n d elsz o n e s W e g e n e n s p o or w e g e n m et bij h or e n d e o p p er vl a k k e n H a v e n g e bi e d e n L u c ht h a v e ns O nt gi n ni n gs pl a ats e n St ort pl a ats e n C o nstr u cti ez o n es Gr o e n e st e d elij k e g e bi e d e n S p ort - e n r e cr e ati e g e bi e d e n Ni et g eïrri g e er d a k k erl a n d B o o m g a ar d e n W eil a n d L a n d b o u w ar e a al m et c o m pl e x e p er c el e n L a n d b o u w ar e a al m et a a n w ezi g h ei d v a n n at u urlij k e v e g et ati e L o of b oss e n N a al d b oss e n G e m e n g d e b oss e n N at u urlij k gr asl a n d H ei d e e n str ui k g e w as O v er g a n gs b os Str a n d, d ui n e n, z a n d o p p er vl a k k e n M o er as V e e n m o er as Z o ut m o er as e n s c h orr e n Sli k k e n W at erl o p e n W at er o p p er vl a k k e n Est u ari a Zee

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

WETS P A ID 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14

WETS P A Lege n d

13 12 12 12 12 12

Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Cr o pl a n d/ N at ur al v e g et ati o n m os ai c Ur b a n a n d b uil d -u p Cr o pl a n d Cr o pl a n d Cr o pl a n d Cr o pl a n d Cr o pl a n d

4 1 5 10 7 6 16 11 11 11 11 17 17 17 17

D e ci d u o us br o a dl e af f or est E v er gr e e n n e e dl el e af f or est Mi x e d f or est Gr assl a n d O p e n S cr u bl a n d Cl os e d S cr u bl a n d B arr e n or s p ars el y v e g et at e d P er m a n e nt w etl a n d P er m a n e nt w etl a n d P er m a n e nt w etl a n d P er m a n e nt w etl a n d W at er b o d y W at er b o d y W at er b o d y W at er b o d y

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5 – L a n d us e m a p us e d f or t h e W E T S P A m o d el

3. 4. 3

S oil m a p

T h e s oil m a p is d eri v e d fr o m E ur o p e a n S oil D at a C e ntr e ( E S D A C) of t h e J oi nt R es e ar c h C e ntr e fr o m t h e E ur o p e a n C o m missi o n . T h e soil m a p is als o r es a m pl e d t o a 5 0 m x 5 0 m r es ol uti o n t o m at c h t o t h e l an d us e m a p a n d el e v ati o n m o d el (Fi g ur e 6 ). W E T S P A is c urr e ntl y s et u p wit h U S D A t e xt ur e cl ass es (T a bl e 7 ). T a bl e 7 – T e xt ur e cl ass es of t h e s oils us e d f or t h e W E T S P A m o d el

ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12

T e xt u re Cl ass e s Sand L oa my sa n d Sa n dyl oa m Silt l o a m Silt Loa m S a n d y cl a y l o a m Silt cl a y l o a m Cl a y l o a m S a n d y cl a y Silt Cl a y Cl a y W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6 – S oil m a p us e d f or t h e W E T S P A m o d el

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

R ai nf all -r u n off m o d elli n g m et h o d ol o g y

T h e distri b ut e d h y dr ol o gi c al W E T S P A m o d el is s et u p t o si m ul at e l o n g dis c h ar g e h y dr o gr a p hs f or e a c h c at c h m e nt wit hi n t h e w at er b al a n c e m o d el. T his s e cti o n i ntr o d u c es t h e m ai n c h ar a ct eristi cs a n d m o d elli n g c o n c e pts of t h e W E T S P A m o d el. S e cti o n 4. 1 gi v es a s h ort i ntr o d u cti o n of t h e ori gi n a l W E T S P A m o d el, w h er e as S e cti o n 4. 2 d es cri b es t h e n e w P yt h o n v ersi o n of t h e W E T S P A m o d el w hi c h is a p pli e d i n t his st u d y. T h e n e xt S e cti o n 5 d es cri b es t h e c ali br ati o n str at e gi es a p pli e d f or all c at c h m e nts.

4. 1

T h e ori gi n al W E T S P A m o d el

T h e W E T S P A m o d el is a GI S -b as e d, s p ati all y -distri b ut e d h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el f or pr e di cti n g t h e w a t er a n d E n er g y Tr a nsf er b et w e e n S oil, Pl a nts a n d At m os p h er e o n r e gi o n al or b asi n s c al e. T h e m o d el w as d e v el o p e d i n t h e Vrij e U ni v ersit ei t of Br uss els, B el gi u m ( W a n g et al., 1 9 9 7 a n d B at el a a n et al., 1 9 9 6) a n d it h as b e e n us e d a n d m o difi e d e v er si n c e f or a wi d e r a n g e of a p pli c ati o ns ( Li u et al., 2 0 0 6; V er b eir e n et al., 2 0 1 3). T h e m o d ell e d b asi n is di vi d e d i nt o a n u m b er of gri d c ells i n or d er t o d e al wit h t h e h et er o g e n eit y. E a c h c ell is f urt h er di vi d e d i nt o a b ar e s oil a n d v e g et at e d p art, f or w hi c h t h e w at er a n d e n er g y b al a n c e ar e m ai nt ai n e d. T h e m o d el c al c ul at es t h e w at er b al a n c e at t h e r ast er c ell l e v el a n d si m ul at es s e v er al p h ysi c al pr o c ess es wit h a c as c a d e a p pr o a c h ( Fi g ur e 7 ). W at er m o v e m e nt i n t h e s oil is si m plifi e d as o n e-di m e ns io n al v erti c al fl o w, i n cl u di n g s urf a c e i nfiltr ati o n, p er c ol ati o n a n d c a pill ar y ris e i n t h e u ns at ur at e d z o n e a n d r e c h ar g e t o gr o u n d w at er. S urf a c e r u n off is pr o d u c e d usi n g a m o difi e d r u n off c o effi ci e nt m et h o d. B as e d o n t h e g e o m or p h ol o gi c al c h ar a ct eristi c of e a c h r ast er c ell, t h e r u n off is t h e n r o ut e d as o v erl a n d a n d c h a n n el fl o w wit h t h e li n e ar diff usi v e w a v e a p pr o xi m ati o n a n d t h e g e o m or p h ol o gi c al i nst a nt a n e o u s u nit h y dr o gr a p h c o n c e pt ( G -I U H). B as e d o n D ar c y’s l a w a n d t h e ki n e m ati c a p pr o xi m ati o n, t h e m o d el c alc ul at es i nt erfl o w as a f u n cti o n of t h e eff e cti v e h y dr a uli c c o n d u cti vit y a n d t h e h y dr a uli c gr a di e nt, w hil e gr o u n d w at er fl o w is esti m at e d wit h t h e li n e ar r e s er v oir m et h o d o n s m all s u b -c at c h m e nt s c al e as a f u n cti o n of gr o u n d w at er st or a g e a n d a r e c essi o n c o ef fi ci e nt. Ti m e st e p r es ol uti o n of i n p uts a n d o ut p uts r a n g es fr o m o n e h o ur t o d a ys, m o nt hs a n d y e ars.

R ai nf all E v a p otr a ns pir ati o n

I nt er c e pti o n

Ri v er Fl o w

N et R ai nf all D e pr essi o n U ns at ur at e d s oil S at ur at e d s oil

R u n off

I nfiltr ati o n D e e p p er c ol ati o n

I nt erfl o w

Gr o u n d w at er fl o w a n d disc h ar g e

Fi g ur e 7 – Diff er e nt p h ysi c a l pr o c ess es si m ul at e d i n t h e W E T S P A m o d el.

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T h e W E T S P A m o d el is c o m p os e d of t hr e e c o m p o n e nts: t w o pr e - pr o c essi n g c o m p o n e nts a n d t h e m ai n si m ul ati o n c o d e. T h e t w o pr e -pr o c essi n g c o m p o n e nts ar e: ( a) t h e GI S -b as e d p ar a m et er m a ps esti m at or a n d ( b) t h e G-I U H r o uti n e. T h e i n p uts of t h e m o d el ar e: ( a) pr e ci pit ati o n, p ot e nti al e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n a n d t e m p er at ur e ti me s eri es, w hi c h ar e distri b ut e d o v er t h e c at c h m e nt wit h t h e T hi ess e n p ol y g o ns m et h o d; a n d ( b) s p ati all y distri b ut e d p ar a m et ers, w hi c h ar e d eri v e d o n b asis of t hr e e m a ps: t o p o gr a p h y, s oil t e xt ur e a n d l a n d us e. T y pi c al o ut p uts of t h e m o d el ar e: fl o w h y dr o g r ap hs at c at c h m e nt a n d s u b -c at c h m e nt o utl ets, a n d m a ps of m aj or w at er fl u x es f or e a c h ti m e st e p. C ali br ati o n c a n b e m a n u all y or a ut o m ati c al l y p erf or m e d b y m o dif yi n g t h e 1 1 gl o b al c ali br ati o n p ar a m et ers

4. 2

T h e W E T S P A -P C R a st er -P yt h o n M o d el

4. 2. 1

G e n er al

T h e W E T S P A – P C R ast er –P yt h o n M o d el h as b e e n d e v el o p e d b y S al v a d or e, E ( 2 0 1 3). T his m o d el is a r ei m pl e m e nt ati o n of t h e ori gi n al W E T S P A m o d el. T h e str u ct u r e a n d t h e pr o gr a m mi n g l a n g u a g e of t h e ori gi n al W E T S P A m o d el w as m o difi e d. T h e n e w str u ct ur e of t h e m o d el is m o d ul ar a n d writt e n i n P yt h o n l a n g u a g e. E v er y p h ysi c al b as e d pr o c ess s u c h as i nt er c e pti o n, r u n off, i nfiltr ati o n, et c. is c o d e d i n a s e p ar at e m o d el a n d t h e m o d ul es e x c h a n g e d at a d uri n g r u n ni n g ti m e t hr o u g h a m o d elli n g fr a m e w or k pr ot ot y p e . T h e i n p ut r e q uir e m e nts f or this m o d el i n cl u d e • •

4. 2. 2

ti m e s eri es of pr e ci pit ati o n a n d p ot e nti al e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n, s p ati al distri b uti o n m a ps c o nsisti n g of th e D E M, l a n d us e a n d s oil t y p e m a ps ar e t h e b as e m a ps f or d eri vi n g all m o d el p ar a m et ers. T h es e m a ps n e e d t o b e i n r ast er f or m at wit h th e s a m e c ell siz e a n d t h e s a m e s p e ci al e xt e nt. T h e m a ps n e e d t o b e c o n v ert e d t o P C R ast er f or m at b ef or e b ei n g i n p utt e d i nt o t h e m o d el. Gl o b al p ar a m et ers

I n t h e W E T S P A – P C R ast er – P yt h o n M o d el, s e v er al gl o b al m o d el p ar a m et ers m ust b e pr e p ar e d w hi c h ar e a p pli e d t o e a c h gri d c ell or e a c h s u b c at c h m e nt. T h e i nf or m ati o n o n t h e p h ysi c al m e a ni n g of t h es e p ar a m et ers is d es cri b e d b el o w: • • • • • • • •

K _ss is a s oil m oist ur e r ati o r el ati v e t o t h e fi el d c a p a cit y f or s etti n g u p t h e i niti al s oil m oist ur e c o nt e nt. T his gi v es a u nif or m di stri b uti o n of i niti al r el ati v e m oist ur e c o n diti o n a n d c a n b e us e d f or m o d el si m ul ati o n wit h a l o n g ti m e s eri es. K _ e p is a c orr e cti o n f a ct or f or p ot e nti al e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n. K _r u n is a n e x p o n e nt r efl e cti n g t h e eff e ct of r ai nf all i nt e nsit y o n t h e a ct u al s urf ac e r u n off c o effi ci e nt w h e n t h e r ai nf all i nt e nsit y is v er y s m all. Ki is a n i nt erfl o w s c ali n g f a ct or r efl e cti n g t h e eff e ct of or g a ni c m at eri al a n d r o ot s yst e ms i n t h e t o ps oil l a y er o n h oriz o nt al h y dr a uli c c o n d u cti vit y. K g is a gr o u n d w at er fl o w r e c essi o n c o effi ci e nt r efl e cti n g t h e gr o u n d w at er r e c essi o n r e gi m e f or t h e e ntir e c at c h m e nt. P _ m a x is a t hr es h ol d of r ai nf all i nt e nsit y i n m m/ d a y or m m/ h o ur d e p e n di n g o n t h e m o d elli n g ti m e st e p, o v er w hi c h t h e v al u e of K _r u n is s et t o 1. G 0 is t h e i niti al gr o u n d w at er st or a g e i n d e pt h ( m m). G _ m a x is t h e m a xi m u m gr o u n d w at er st or a g e i n d e pt h ( m m).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

4. 2. 3

S oil b as e d p ar a m et ers

S oil t e xt ur al cl ass es ar e us e d t o pr o vi d e i nf or m ati o n c o n c er ni n g s oil p h ysi c al pr o p erti es, s u c h as p or osit y, h y dr a uli c c o n d u cti vit y, p or e siz e distri b uti o n i n d e x, et c. I n W E T S P A E xt e nsi o n, s oil t e xt ur es ar e cl assifi e d i nt o 1 2 U S D A ( U. S. D e p art m e nt of A gri c ult ur e) cl ass es r a n gi n g fr o m 1 t o 1 2 b as e d o n t h e p er c e nt a g e of s a n d, silt a n d cl a y i n t h e s oil s a m pl e. Fi n e t e xt ur e d s oils h a v e a hi g h p er c e nt a g e of cl a y a n d ar e v er y sti c k y w h e n w et a n d h ar d w h e n dr y, w hil e c o ars e t e xt ur e d s oils h a v e a hi g h p er c e nt a g e of s a n d a n d ar e l o os e a n d fri a bl e. A l o o k u p t a bl e is est a blis h e d as pr es e nt e d i n T a bl e 8 t o esti m at e h y dr a uli c pr o p erti es as a f un c ti o n of s oil t ext ur e cl ass es usi n g m e a n v al u es o bt ai n e d fr o m t h e lit er at ur e. T a bl e 8 – D ef a ult p ar a m et ers c h ar a ct erizi n g s oil t e xt ur al cl ass es i n t h e W E T S P A m o d el

T e xt ur e Cl ass e s

H y dr a uli c c o n d u cti vit y [ m m / h]

P or o sit y [m³ / m³ ]

Fi el d c a p a cit y [m³ / m³ ]

Wilti n g p oi nt [m³ / m³ ]

R e si d u al m oist ur e [m³ / m³ ]

P or e siz e distri b uti o n i n d e x [-]

Sand

2 0 8. 8

0. 4 3 7

0. 0 6 2

0. 0 2 4

0. 0 2 0

3. 3 9

L oa my sa n d

6 1. 2 0

0. 4 3 7

0. 1 0 5

0. 0 4 7

0. 0 3 5

3. 8 6

Sa n dyl oa m

2 5. 9 2

0. 4 5 3

0. 1 9 0

0. 0 8 5

0. 0 4 1

4. 5 0

Silt l o a m

1 3. 3 2

0. 5 0 1

0. 2 8 4

0. 1 3 5

0. 0 1 5

4. 9 8

Silt

6. 8 4

0. 4 8 2

0. 2 5 8

0. 1 2 6

0. 0 1 5

3. 7 1

Loa m

5. 5 8

0. 4 6 3

0. 2 3 2

0. 1 1 6

0. 0 2 7

5. 7 7

S a n d y cl a y l o a m

4. 3 2

0. 3 9 8

0. 2 4 4

0. 1 3 6

0. 0 6 8

7. 2 0

Silt cl a y l o a m

2. 3 0

0. 4 7 1

0. 3 4 2

0. 2 1 0

0. 0 4 0

8. 3 2

Cl a y l o a m

1. 5 1

0. 4 6 4

0. 3 1 0

0. 1 8 7

0. 0 7 5

8. 3 2

S a n d y cl a y

1. 1 9

0. 4 3 0

0. 3 2 1

0. 2 2 1

0. 1 0 9

9. 5 9

Silt Cl a y

0. 9 0

0. 4 7 9

0. 3 7 1

0. 2 5 1

0. 0 5 6

1 0. 3 8

Cl a y

0. 6 0

0. 4 7 5

0. 3 7 8

0. 2 5 1

0. 0 9 0

1 2. 1 3

4. 2. 4

L a n d us e b as e d p ar a m et ers:

L a n d us e or l a n d c o v er is a n i m p ort a nt b o u n d ar y c o n diti o n, w hi c h dir e ctl y or i n dir e ctl y i nfl u e n c e s m a n y h y dr ol o gi c al pr o c ess es ( T a bl e 9 ). T h e m ost o b vi o us i nfl u e n c e of l a n d us e o n t h e w at er b al a n c e of a c at c h m e nt is o n t h e e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n pr o c ess. Diff er e nt l a n d us e t y p es h a v e diff er e nt e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n r at es, d u e t o t h eir diff er e nt v e g et ati o n c o v er, l e af ar e a i n di c es, r o ot d e pt hs a n d al b e d o. D uri n g st or ms, i nt er c epti o n a n d d e pr essi o n r at es ar e diff er e nt f or diff er e nt l a n d us e t y p es. L a n d us e als o i nfl u e n c es t h e i nfiltr ati o n a n d s oil w at er r e distri b uti o n pr o c ess, b e c a us e esp e ci all y t h e s at ur at e d h y dr a uli c c o n d u cti vit y is i nfl u e n c e d b y pl a nt r o ots a n d p or es r es ulti n g fr o m s oil f a u n a ( R a g a b & C o o p er, 1 9 9 3). T hr e e f a ct ors t a k e n i nt o a c c o u nt i n t h e m o d el a n d c a n b e s u m m ariz e d as f oll o ws: • • •

R o ot d e pt h: t his f u n cti o n will cr e at e a r o o t d e pt h gri d b as e d o n t h e l o o k u p t a bl e i n t h e m o d el. I nt er c e pti o n c a p a cit y: t his f un cti o n will cr e at e a y e arl y m a xi m u m a n d mi ni m u m i nt er c e pti o n c a p a cit y gri ds r es p e cti v el y b as e d o n t h e l o o k u p t a bl e. M a n ni n g c o effi ci e nt: t his f u n cti o n will cr e at e a M a n ni n g’ s c o effi ci e nt gri d f or b ot h l a n d s urf a c e a n d ri v er c h a n n el b as e d o n t h e g e o gr a p hi c al i nf or m ati o n of l a n d us e a n d str e a m or d er.

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A T a bl e 9 – D ef a ult p ar a m et ers c h ar a ct erizi n g l a n d us e cl ass es of t h e W E T S P A m o d el

L a n d us e Cl ass e s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Fi n al v ersi o n

I nt erc e pti o n c a p a cit y [ m m] Max

Mi n

R o ot d e pt h [ m]

2 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 0 2 0 1 0

0. 5 0. 5 0. 5 0. 5 0. 5 0. 5 0. 5 0. 5 0. 5 0. 5 0. 2 0. 5 0. 0 0. 5 0. 0 0. 2 0. 0

1. 0 1. 0 1. 0 1. 0 1. 0 0. 8 0. 8 1. 0 0. 8 0. 8 0. 5 0. 8 0. 5 0. 8 0. 1 0. 5 0. 1

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M a n ni n g c o effi ci e nt 0. 4 0 0. 6 0 0. 4 0 0. 8 0 0. 5 5 0. 4 0 0. 4 0 0. 5 0 0. 4 0 0. 3 0 0. 5 0 0. 3 5 0. 0 5 0. 3 5 0. 0 5 0. 1 0 0. 0 5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C ali br ati o n str at e g y

T h e p ur p os e of c ali br ati o n is t o d eri v e c h ar a ct eristi cs, e q u ati o n c o nst a nts, w ei g hti n g f a ct ors, a n d ot h e r p ar a m et ers t h at s er v e t o d efi n e t h e m o d el f or a p arti c ul ar w at ers h e d. I n a distri b ut e d a n d c o nti n u o us si m ul ati o n as i n t h e W E T S P A m o d el , t h e c ali br atio n pr o c ess is gr e atl y ri g or o us a n d m or e c o m pl e x t h a n i n m o d el c ali br ati o n f or l u m p e d m o d el s. R e g ar di n g t h e W E T S P A m o d el, t h e i niti al i n p ut d at a of t o p o gr a p h y, l a n d us e a n d s oils t y p e m a p ar e i n r ast er f or m at wit h r es ol uti o n of 5 0 x 5 0 m a n d t h e s a m e s p ati al e xt e nt. T h e w at er b al a n c e is c al c ul at e d at c ell s c al e f or t h e c o nsi d er e d c at c h m e nt. T his r es ults i n v er y hi g h c o m p ut ati o n al ti m e f or e a c h si m ul ati o n, es p e ci all y f or l ar g e c at c h m e nts. T o r e d u c e t h e c o m p ut ati o n ti m e, t h e f oll o wi n g c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d s ar e i niti all y a p pli e d: • • • •

W ar mi n g u p M o d el: 0 1 y e ar M a n u al C ali br ati o n: 0 2 y e ars A ut o -C ali br ati o n: 0 5 y e ars V ali d ati o n: 0 5 y e ars

T h es e si m ul ati o n p eri o ds c o ul d h o w e v er b e r e d u c e d if t h e ti m e s eri es f or m e as ur e d dis c h ar g e, pr e ci pit ati o n a n d e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n f or a p arti c ul ar c at c h m e nt d o n ot c o v er t his ti m e s p a n . As list e d b ef or e t h e c ali br ati o n is spli t u p i n a m a n u al a n d a n a ut o m ati c c ali br ati o n. C h o osi n g t h e p eri o d of 2 y e ars f or t h e m a n u al c ali br ati o n ass ur es t h at w et a n d dr y s e as o n as w ell as t h e tr a nsiti o n b et w e e n w et a n d dr y s e as o n ar e g e n er all y c o v er e d . C o ns e q u e ntl y t his first m a n u al c ali br atio n of t h e p ar a m et ers will si g nifi c a ntl y r e d u c e t h e ris ks i n v ol v e d w h e n r u n ni n g t h e a ut o-c ali br ati o n f or t h e m o d el. B el o w t h e m a n u al a n d a ut o -c ali br ati o n pr o c e d ur e ar e d es cri b e d i n m or e d et ail.

5. 1

M a n u al C ali br ati o n

T h e m a n u al c ali br ati o n h el ps t o a p pr o a c h t h e o pti m u m p ar a m et ers s et b ef or e r u n ni n g t h e a ut o m ati c c ali br ati o n. F or t h e W E T S P A m o d el, t h e gl o b al p ar a m et ers s et d es cri b e d i n s e cti o n 4. 2. 2 is a dj ust e d d uri n g t h e m a n u al c ali br ati o n. B as e d o n e v al u ati o n of t h e r es ults a n d t h e vis u al c o m p aris o n b et w e e n o bs er v e d a n d c al c ul at e d h y dr o gr a p hs f or t h e a d dr ess e d si m ul ati o n p eri o d, t h e gl o b al p ar a m et ers ar e r e a dj ust e d . T a bl e 1 0 is a n e x a m pl e of a n a p pr o pri at e p ar a m et er s et c h os e n b y p erf or mi n g t h e m a n u al c ali br ati o n f or t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 . T a bl e 1 0 – C h os e n gl o b al p ar a m et ers s et of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0.

Kep

Ks s

g _ max

K _r u n

P_ max

1. 0

100

0. 0 0 9 6

1. 0

1 2 1. 3 9

2 5 0. 0 1

2. 2 3

1 5 0. 7 2

It is n ot e d t h at t h e c ali brati o n of t h e W E T S P A m o d el is i niti all y n ot c arri e d o ut f or all m o d el p ar a m et ers. O nl y t h e m ost i m p ort a nt p ar a m et er s u c h as t h e a b o v e m e nti o n e d gl o b al p ar a m et ers ar e a d dr ess e d at first . Ot h er p ar a m et ers i n cl u di n g h y dr a uli c c o n d u cti vit y, p or osit y, r o ot d e p t h, i nt er c e pti o n a n d d e pr essi o n st or a g e c a p a cit y a n d s o o n, ar e s et t o d ef a ult v al u es i nt er p ol at e d fr o m t h e lit er at ur e. If n e e d e d, t h es e p ar a m et ers c o ul d h o w e v er b e a dj ust e d t o i m pr o v e t h e m o d el r es ults f or c at c h m e nts w hi c h h a v e s p e cifi c c o n diti o ns.

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

5. 2

A ut o- C ali br ati o n

O n c e t h e m a n u al c ali br ati o n is s u c c e e d e d, t h e s uit a bl e gl o b al p ar a m et er s et will b e us e d as st arti n g p oi nt f or t h e a ut o-c ali br ati o n st e p. T his is d o n e b y m e a ns of t h e N S G A II al g orit h m , i m pl e m e nt e d i n P yt h o n. T h e P yt h o n v ersi o n of t h e N S G A II al g or it h m w as a d a pt e d f or h y dr ol o gi c al o pti miz ati o n p ur p os es usi n g a g e n er al fr a m e w or k s u p p orti n g f o ur r ai nf all -r u n off m o d els: N A M, P D M, V H M, a n d W E T S P A . D es cri pti o n of h o w t h es e m o d els ar e i m pl e m e nt e d i nt o t h e s a m e P yt h o n fr a m e w or k c a n b e f o u n d i n V a nst e e n k iste et al. ( 2 0 1 2) a n d Tr a n et al. ( 2 02 1 a a n d b). T h e P yt h o n a ut o m ati c c ali br ati o n s h ell c urr e ntl y s u p p orts t h e f oll o wi n g o p er ati o ns: • • • •

O pti miz ati o n of ( o n e, s e v er al or all) m o d el p ar a m et ers f or a gi v e n c ali br ati o n p eri o d ; E v al u ati o n of m o d el p ar a m et ers f or a gi v e n v ali d ati o n p eri o d ; Pl otti n g r es ults of v ari o us alt er n ati v e p ar a m et er s ets o n t h e s a m e pl ot or s e p ar at el y (f or e x a m pl e, t h e fi n al p o p ul ati o n g e n er at e d b y t h e al g orit h m); G e n er ati n g a ut o m ati c r e p orts of c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n.

R e g ar di n g t h e a ut o -c a li br ati o n of t h e W E T S P A m o d el, all ei g ht p ar a m et ers w er e o pti miz e d a n d t h e l o w er a n d u p p er b o u n d ari es of e a c h p ar a m et er w er e d efi n e d as list e d i n T a bl e 1 1 . I n c as e t h at t h e o pti m u m is n ot w ell d efi n e d or t h e al g orit h m c a n n ot c o n v e r g e i n r e as o n a bl e r a n g e, t h es e b o u n d ari es ar e a dj ust e d. If t h e a ut o c ali br ati o n r es ults ar e n ot s atisf a ct or y, t h e m an u al c ali br ati o n is c o nsi d er e d a g ai n t o c h o os e a b ett er p ar a m et er s et t o b e us e d as a st arti n g p oi nt f or t h e a ut o-c ali br ati o n. T a bl e 1 1 – W E T S P A p ar a m et er s a n d o pti miz ati o n b o u n d ari es of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0.

P ar a m et ers

Kep

K _r u n

P_ max

Kss

g_ max

L o w er b o u n d ar y

0. 5

1. 6

120

0. 5

200

0. 0 0 2

Hi g h er b o u n d ar y

3. 0

9. 0

450

100

300

200

500

0. 0 5

O pti miz ati o n al g orit h m

T h e al g orit h m us e d f or o pti miz ati o n of W E T S P A p ar a m et ers is t h e N o n -d o mi n at e d S orti n g G e n eti c Al g orit h m II or N S G A II4 . T his al g orit h m is s uit a bl e f or o pti miz ati o n pr o bl e ms wit h m ulti pl e o bj e cti v e f u n cti o ns. V ari a bl e v al u es ar e g e n er at e d i n t h e first it er ati o n. E a c h s ol uti o n, t h at is t o s a y a n arr a y of v ari a bl e v al u es, is c all e d a n i n di vi d u al. A p o p ul ati o n is a gr o u p of N s ol uti o ns i n e a c h it er ati o n. I n t h e f oll o wi n g it er ati o ns t h e cr e at e d i n di vi d u als ar e g oi n g t o b e “ c hil dr e n ” of t h e pr e vi o u s po p ul ati o n, t h at is t o s a y t h e y ar e g oi n g t o i n h erit “f eat ur es ” fr o m c o u pl es of i n di vi d u als c h os e n i n t h e pr e vi o us p o p ul ati o n a c c or di n g t o s p e cifi e d s el e cti o n a n d cr oss o v er t e c h ni q u es. T h e us er c a n c h o os e t o r a n d o ml y m ut at e t h e c hil dr e n f e at ur es w h e n a n off s pri n g is cr e at e d. T h e al g orit h m will t h e n p erf or m t h e e v al u ati o n of t h e s ol uti o ns t hr o u g h t h e P ar et o c o m p aris o n, t h at is t o s a y a s ol uti o n d o mi n at es, or is b ett er t h a n, a n ot h er s ol uti o n if it is b ett er t h a n or e q u al t o t h e ot h er s ol uti o n i n all o bj e cti v es a n d stri ctl y b ett er i n at l e ast o n e o bj e cti v e. A c o m bi n e d p o p ul ati o n R of p ar e nt a n d c hil dr e n

K al y a n m o y D e b, A mrit Pr at a p, S a m e er A g ar w al, a n d T. M e y ari v a n . A F ast Elitist M ulti-o bj e cti v e G e n eti c Al g orit h m: N S G A -II. I E E E Tr a ns a cti o ns o n E v ol uti on ar y C o m p ut ati o n, 6( 2): 1 8 2 - 1 9 7, A pril 2 0 0 2. Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

p o p ul ati o n is f or m e d; t h e i n di vi d u als i n it ar e s ort e d a c c or di n g t o n o n -d o mi n ati o n. Si n c e all pr e vi o us a n d c urr e nt p o p ul ati o n m e m b ers ar e i n cl u d e d i n R, t h e e litis m is e ns ur e d. T h e b est N s ol uti o ns will b e t h e p o p ul a ti o n of t h e n e xt it er ati o n. O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

Wit hi n t h e o pti miz ati o n, it is p ossi bl e t o s et t h e f oll o wi n g p ar a m et ers: • • • •

T h e p o p ul ati o n siz e or t h e n u m b er of i n di vi d u als i n t h e p o p ul ati o n us e d b y t he al g orit h m T h e n u m b er of it er ati o n ( m a xi m u m g e n er ati o n s) T h e n u m b er of p ar a m et ers t o o pti miz e E v e nt u al s e e d i n di vi d u als t o i n cl u d e

T h e p o p ul ati o n siz e a n d t h e m a xi m u m g e n er ati o n ar e t o b e s et t o t h e s a m e v al u es f or all si m ul ati o n r u n s. T h e i n cr e as e i n t h e n u m b er of p o p ul ati o n siz e a n d t h e m a xi m u m g e n er ati o n w ill h el p t o a c hi e v e b ett er a ut oc ali br ati o n r es ults b ut it als o r es ults i n l o n g c o m p ut ati o n ti m e f or e a c h si m ul ati o n. I n s u m m ar y, t h e effi ci e nt c ali br ati o n str at e g y f or t h e W E T S P A m o d el is s u g g est e d t hr o u g h t h e f oll o wi n g st e ps: 1. 2. 3.

I m pl e m e nt t h e m a n u al c ali br a ti o n f or t h e p eri o d of 2 y e ars a n d tr y t o o bt ai n t h e b est gl o b al p ar a m et ers s et. R e d u c e t h e r a n g e b et w e e n l o w er a n d hi g h er b o u n d ar y of t h e gl o b al p ar a m et ers s et S et t h e p o p ul ati o n siz e a n d m a x _ g e n e r ati o ns t o t h e l o w est p ossi bl e v al u es.

S e n siti vit y a n al ysis of diff er e nt s p ati al distri b uti o n m a p r es ol uti o n

I n t his st u d y, m ost of t h e i n p ut d at a s et i n cl u di n g t o p o gr a p h y, l a n d us e m a p, a n d s oil m a p wit h t h e r es ol uti o n of 5 0 x 5 0 m w er e us e d i n t h e m o d el s e t u p. I n or d er t o r e d u c e t h e si m ul ati o n ti m e, a c o urs er r es ol uti o n of t h e s p ati al distri b uti o n m a ps c o ul d b e us e d t o i n p ut i nt o t h e m o d el f or s o m e bi g c at c h m e nts. T h e c at c h m e nt wit h c o d e F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9 h as b e e n c h os e n t o t est t h e i nfl u e n c e of diff er e nt r es ol u ti on s c e n ari os ( 5 0 x 5 0 m, 2 0 0 x 2 0 0 m, 3 0 0 x 3 0 0 m, 4 0 0 x 4 0 0 m, a n d 5 0 0 x 5 0 0 m) of t h e s p ati al distri b uti o n m a ps o n fl o w b e h a vi o ur at t h e w at ers h e d o utl et. T h e si m ul at e d dis c h ar g e r es ults f or t h e y e ar 2 0 1 3 at t h e o utl et of t h e c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9 is s h o w n i n Fi g ur e 8 . 15 0

Di s c h ar g e ( m 3 / d)

13 0 11 0 90 70 50 30 10 -1 0

5 0x50

2 0 0x2 00

3 00x30 0

4 0 0x4 0 0

5 00x50 0

Fi g ur e 8 – C o m p ari s o n of diff er e nt distri b uti o n m a p r es ol uti o n o n d ail y di s c h ar g e at t h e o utl et of c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9.

As c a n b e s e e n fr o m t h e Fi g ur e 8 , t h e tr e n d a n d ti mi n g of si m ul at e d fl o w c orr es p o n di n g t o diff er e nt r es ol uti o n s c e n ari os s e e m t o b e t h e s a m e f or t h e w h ol e y e ar 2 0 1 3. T h e diff er e n c e i n hi g h fl o w a n d l o w fl o w a m o n g t h e s c e n ari os of 2 00 x 2 0 0, 3 0 0 x 3 0 0, 4 0 0 x 4 0 0, a n d 5 0 0 x 5 0 0 m r es ol uti o n is n ot si g nifi c a nt. A s m al l ch a n g e i n b as e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

fl o w o c c urs d uri n g a s h ort p eri o d of ti m e fr o m M ar c h – J u n e b et w e e n t h e s c e n ari o of 5 0 x 5 0 m r es ol uti o n a n d t h e ot h ers. H o w e v er, t h e b as e fl o w is n ot i nfl u e n c e d b y t he r es ol uti o n d uri n g t h e ot h er m o nt hs. B as e d o n t h es e r es ults, it is d e ci d e d t o us e a c o urs er r es ol uti o n of 5 0 0 x 5 0 0 m f or t h e bi g g est c at h m e nts as i n p ut d at a s et of t h e m o d el. T h e bi g c at c h m e nts wit h 5 0 0 x 5 0 0 m r es ol uti o n of t h e s p ati al distri b uti o n m a ps ar e pr es e nt e d i n T a bl e 1 2 . T a bl e 1 2 – List of c at c h m e nts wit h a 5 0 0 x 5 0 0 m r es ol uti o n of S p ati al distri b uti o n m a ps.

G a u gi n g st ati o n

DS G

Ar e a ( k m²)

( c o d e - w at er c o ur s e; l o c ati o n)

S p ati al

distri b uti o n

r e s ol uti o n ( m)

3 8 6 8 0 1 2 2 – L ei e; M e n e n

F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9

2 1 9 8. 8

5 0 0x 5 0 0

3 2 5 8 0 1 2 2 – B o v e n s c hel d e; B o ss uit

F06 B OS325999

5 2 1 7. 6

5 0 0x 5 0 0

9 3 1 0 1 0 2 – Dijl e; Wils el e

V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0

8 8 6. 9

5 0 0x 5 0 0

1 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 – G et e; H al e n

V09 GET152080

8 0 0. 4

5 0 0x 5 0 0

S alzi n n e R o n et/ S a m br e

W 1 1S A M 7 3 1 9

2669

5 0 0x 5 0 0

A n gl e ur 2 bis/ O urt h e ( c al c ul at e d)

W11 O UR5805

5805

5 0 0x 5 0 0

C h o oz/ M e us e

F11 M A A8702

10120

5 0 0x 5 0 0

Pr of o n d e vill e/ M e us e

W 11 M A A P R OF

12586

5 0 0x 5 0 0

5. 3

map

O bj e cti v e f u n cti o n

A ut o m ati c c ali br ati o n c o nsists of o pti mizi n g ( 1) a gr e e m e nt b et w e e n t h e a v er a g e si m ul at e d a n d o bs er v e d c at c h m e nt r u n off ( o v er all v ol u m e err or) a n d ( 2) o v e r all a gr e e m e nt of t h e s h a p e of t h e h y dr o gr a p h. T o ass ess t h es e t w o as p e cts, e v al u ati o n is b as e d o n t h e f oll o wi n g g o o d n ess-of -fit i n d e x es: 1. 2.

A bs ol ut e err or o n c u m ul at e d t ot al fl o w at e a c h ti m e st e p (t o mi ni miz e), a n d L o g arit h mi c N as h -S ut cliff effi ci e n c y (t o m a x i miz e).

T h es e t w o o bj e cti v es ar e s uit e d f or N S G A -II o pti miz ati o n b e c a us e t h e y ar e c o ntr a di ct or y f or a n u m b er of m o d el p ar a m et ers. A r e d u c e d n u m b er of o bj e cti v es (t w o) f a cilit at es a n d f ast e ns t h e al g orit h m c o n v er g e n c e w hil e e ns uri n g g o o d o v er all p erf or m a n c e of t h e m o d el. It is als o i m p ort a nt t h at t h es e o bj e cti v es b e c o ntr a di ct or y i n or d e r f or t h e o pti m u m t o b e w ell d efi n e d. T h er e ar e g e n er all y tr a d e -offs b et w e e n p erf or m a n c e f or hi g h a n d l o w fl o ws. T h er ef or e, fi n al m a n u al a n d vis u al c h e c ks will c o m pl et e p erf or m a n c e e v al u ati o n wit h p ossi bl e f o c us o n l o w or hi g h fl o w. T h e effi ci e n c y E pr o p os e d b y N as h a n d S ut cliff e ( 1 9 7 0) is d efi n e d as o n e mi n us t h e s u m of t h e a bs ol ut e s q u ar e d diff er e n c es b et w e e n t h e pr e di ct e d a n d o bs er v e d v al u es n or m aliz e d b y t h e v ari a n c e o f th e o bs er v e d v al u es d uri n g t h e p eri o d u n d er i n v esti g ati o n. It is c al c ul at e d as f oll o ws: 𝐸𝐸 = 1 −

∑ 𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖 = 1 ( 𝑂𝑂 𝑖𝑖 − 𝑃𝑃 𝑖𝑖 ) 2 ∑ 𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖 = 1 ( 𝑂𝑂 𝑖𝑖 − 𝑂𝑂� ) 2

E q. 1

wit h O o bs er v e d a n d P pr e di ct e d v al u es. T o r e d u c e t h e s e nsiti vit y t o e xtr e m e v al u es, t h e v al u es of O a n d P. T hr o u g h l o g arit h mi c tr a nsf or fl o ws ar e k e pt m or e or l ess at t h e s a m e l e vel. c o m p aris o n t o t h e fl o o d p e a ks, r es ulti n g i n a u n d er pr e di cti o n ( Kr a us e et al. 2 0 0 5).

Fi n al v ersi o n

N as h -S ut cliff e effi ci e n c y E is als o c al c ul at e d wit h l o g arit h mi c m ati o n of r u n off v al u es, t h e p e a ks ar e fl att e n e d a n d t h e l o w As a r es ult, t h e i nfl u e n c e of l o w fl o w v al u es is i n cr e as e d i n hi g h e r s e nsiti vit y of l o g N S E t o s yst e m ati c m o d el o v er- or

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T h e s e c o n d o bj e cti v e of t h e al g orit h m is mi ni mi zi ng t h e a bs ol ut e err or o n c u m ul at e d v al u es at e a c h ti m e st e p ( d a y). T his e ns ur es t h at t h e w at er b al a n c e r e m ai ns s atisf a ct or y t hr o u g h o ut t h e si m ul ati o n ( all y e ars si m ul at e d). T h e t w o g o o d n ess -of -fit st atisti cs c a n b e r e pr es e nt e d i n 2 di m e nsi o ns t o r e pr es ent t h e s et of s ol uti o ns e v al u at e d b y t h e al g orit h m. T h e b est p airs c o nstit ut e t h e P ar et o fr o nt. I n or d er t o s el e ct on e si n gl e b est s ol uti o n, t h e t w o p erf or m a n c e i n d e x es w er e n or m aliz e d ( or r es c al e d) a cr oss t h e e x pl or e d r a n g e ( E q. 2) wit h x mi n s et t o z er o f or t h e a bs ol ut e err or, a n d x m a x s et t o 1 f or t h e l o g arit h mi c N S E. 𝐸𝐸 ′

𝑂𝑂 − 𝑖𝑖 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖 𝑛𝑛

E q. 2

𝑖𝑖 𝑂𝑂 𝑖𝑖 𝑂𝑂 − 𝑛𝑛 𝑖𝑖𝑥𝑥 𝑥𝑥

T his n or m aliz ati o n r es ult e d i n v al u es b et w e e n 0 a n d 1 f or t h e a bs ol ut e err or a n d b et w e e n -1 a n d 1 f or t h e N S E. T h e fi n al s ol uti o n w as t h e n s el e ct e d a m o n g t h e fi n al P ar et o fr o nt, l o o ki n g at t h e mi ni m u m E u cli di a n dist a n c e t o t h e or eti c al o pti m u m: l o g N S E = 1 a n d A bs ol ut e Err or = 0 ( E q. 3). 𝑑𝑑 = � ( 𝑥𝑥 𝐵𝐵 − 𝑥𝑥 𝐴𝐴 ) 2 + ( 𝑦𝑦 𝐵𝐵 − 𝑦𝑦 𝐴𝐴 ) 2

E q. 3

A n e x a m pl e of P ar et o fr o nt a n d fi n al s el e cti o n is gi v e n i n Fi g ur e 9 a n d Fi g ur e 1 0 .

Fi g ur e 9 – All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u als) a n d fi n al p o p ul a ti o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 0 – R es c al e d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C ali br ati o n of t h e W E T S P A m o d el

T h e fi n al s ets of p ar a m et ers f or e a c h c ali br at e d W E T S P A m o d el ar e s u m m ariz e d A p p e n di x 1. T his s ecti o n pr es e nts t h e m ai n r es ults of si m ul ati o n f or all c ali br at e d c at c h m e nt str u ct ur e d p er h y dr o gr a p hi c b asi n. M o d el p erf or m a n c e w as ass ess e d b as e d o n g o o d n ess -of -fit i n d e x es as w ell as b y vis u al e v al u ati o n. I n t his st u d y, l o g N S E a n d a bs ol ut e err or alre a d y t a k e n i nt o c o nsi d er ati o n as o bj e cti v e f u n cti o ns wit hi n t h e o pti miz ati o n al g orit h m . L o g N S E v al u es a b o v e 0. 7 c a n b e c o nsi d er e d v er y w ell. V al u es b el o w z er o m e a n t h at t h e pr e di cti v e p o w er of t h e m o d el is w ors e t h a n t h e m e as ur e d a v er a g e. I n m ost c as es, a cali br ati o n ti m e p eri o d of 5 y e ars w as o bs er v e d. H o w e v er, s h ort er ti m e s eri es w er e us e d w h e n a v ail a bl e d at a w er e i ns uffi ci e nt. T h e f oll o wi n g s e cti o n s y nt h etiz es t h e m ai n r es ults a n d c o n cl usi o ns of t h e W E T S P A c ali br ati o n i n e a c h ri v er b asi n. D et ail e d gr a p hs a n d c al c ul at e d st atisti cs, f or c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o ds, ar e gi v e n f or e a c h g a u g e d c at c h m e nts i n A p p e n di x 1 t o A p p e n di x 2 3.

6. 1

IJz er b asi n

6. 1. 1

C o nt e xt

T h e IJz er c at c h m e nt c o v ers a n ar e a of 1 1 0 1 k m² fr o m w hi c h a b o ut o n e t hir d is l o c at e d i n Fr a n c e ( W L , 2 0 0 6). T his r e pr es e nts 1. 6 % of t h e t ot al st u d y ar e a ( S c h el dt b asi n + IJz er, e x cl u di n g t h e M e us e). O n t h e Fr e n c h si d e, t h e m ai n tri b ut ari es ar e t h e P e e n e B e c q u e, t h e S al e B e c q u e a n d t h e H erz e el e. I n Fl a n d ers, t h e P o p eri n g e v a art, t h e K e m m el b e e k, t h e I e p er -IJz er C a n al wit h t h e I e p erl e e a n d M artj e ns v a art, St e n e nsl uis v a art, H o ut e nsl uis v a art a n d H a n dz a m e v a art ar e t h e m ai n tri b ut ari es of t h e IJz er. N ot e t h at t h es e tri b ut ari es ar e all dis c h ar gi n g fr o m t h e ri g ht b a n k of t h e IJz er Ri v er.

Fi g ur e 1 1 – C at c h m e nts a n d g a u gi n g st ati o ns o n t h e IJz er b asi n.

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T h er e ar e 8 g a u g e d c at c h m e nts i n t h e IJz er c at c h m e nt, c o v eri n g 7 8 6 k m² ( 7 0 % of t h e IJz er c at c h m e nt ar e a). S u b c at c h m e nts V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 0 1 0 a n d F 0 1 Y S E 4 6 8 0 0 0 ar e l o c at e d u pstr e a m of t h e g a u gi n g st at i o n i n R o es br u g g e. T h e c at c h m e nts a n d c o rr es p o n di n g m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts ar e s h o w n i n Fi g ur e 1 1 . 6. 1. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e

T a bl e 1 3 a n d T a bl e 1 4 pr es e nt t h e p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e IJz er b asi n f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. Gr a p hs of si m ul ati o n f or t h e c a t c h m e nts wit h c o d e V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( b est m o d el p erf or m a n c e) a n d V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e) ar e pr es e nt e d b el o w (Fi g ur e 1 2 t o Fi g ur e 2 0 ). F or m or e d et ail e d r es ults of t h e c ali br ati o n, v ali d ati o n, a n d a ut o c ali br ati o n o n t h e c at c h m e nts, is r eff er e d t o A p p e n di x 2 a n d A p p e n di x 3. V al u es i n T a bl e 1 3 an d T a bl e 1 4 i n di c at e p o or t o f air a gr e e m e nt b et w e e n t h e si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d dis c h ar g e f or t h e m aj orit y of t h e c at c h m e nts, wit h L o g N S E a n d R el Err v al u es r a n g e fr o m 0. 2 9 t o 0. 6 7 a n d fr o m-5. 3 % t o 6. 4 %, r es p e cti v el y. R e g ar di n g c at ch m e nt wit h c o d e V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 , t h e m o d el p erf or m a n c e w as s atisf a ct or y i n si m ul ati n g t h e dis c h ar g e f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o ds wit h a d ail y ti m e st e p (Fi g ur e 1 2 t o Fi g ur e 1 6 ). T his is c onf ir m e d b y t h e r es p e cti v e v al u es of L o g N S E hi g h er t h a n 0. 6 a n d R el Err l o w er t h a n 2. 5 %. A n ot h er a d e q u at e m o d el p erf or m a n c e is als o f o u n d i n t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0. N e v ert h el ess , t h e r es ults of t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d of t h e c at c h m e nts wit h co d e V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 , V 0 1 S S V 4 9 9 1 4 0, a n d V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9 ar e p o or ( T a bl e 1 3 a n d T a bl e 1 4 ). As c a n b e s e e n i n Fi g ur e 1 7 a n d Fi g ur e 1 9 , t h e m o d el u n d er esti m at e d lo w fl o w d uri n g t h e si m ul ati o n p eri o d of t h e y e ar 2 0 0 8 a n d t h e n o v er esti m at e d dis c h ar g e f or t h e al m ost t h e e ntir e v ali d ati o n p eri o d at t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0, r e s ulti n g i n a n i n cr e as e of R el Err v al u es ( a b o v e 5. 3 %) ( T a bl e 1 3 an d T a bl e 1 4 ). Wit h r e g ar ds t o t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9, t h e m o d el o v er esti m at e d l o w fl o w o v er t h e v ali d ati o n p eri o d, alt h o u g h t h er e is a r el ati v e g o o d m at c h b et w e e n si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d v al u es d uri n g t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d (A p p e n di x 2 ). T his is pr es u m a bl y d u e t o t he i n p ut d at a of t h e Fr e n c h si d e i n cl u di n g t o p o gr a p h y, l a n d us e a n d s oil m a p, w hi c h w er e us e d as i n p ut d at a f or t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9 a n d d o n ot r efl e ct pr o p erl y t h e r e alit y of t h e c at c h m e nt. T h e c at c h m e nt wit h c o d e V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0 pr es e nts a n o v er esti m ati o n of l o w fl o w i n t h e wi nt er s e as o n 2 0 0 3 a n d 2 0 0 6 (A p p e n di x 2 ), alt h o u g h t h e g e n er al m o d el p erf or m a n c e f or t h e e ntir e v ali d ati o n p eri o d is a d e q u at e ( T a bl e 1 4 ). D at a r e m ar k: T h e m e as ur e d dis c h ar g e fr o m 2 0 0 5 is n ot r eli a bl e i n t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0, t h er ef or e t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati on p eri o d is s el e ct e d fr o m 1 9 9 4 -2 0 0 4. T a bl e 1 3 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e IJz er b asi n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

Ar e a ( k m²)

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k

V01 H A N488180

78.6

0. 6 7

0. 6

2 0 0 8 -2 01 3

V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9 ( V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 0 1 0 e n F 0 1 Y S E 4 6 8 0 0 0)

393.0

0. 4

-4. 0

1 9 9 0-1 9 9 6

V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0

63.4

0. 5 4

-2. 4

1 9 9 4-2 0 0 4

4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 -K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e

V01KE M492060

73.9

0. 3 6

-6. 6

2 0 0 9 -2 01 3

4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m

V01 M AR496120

76.1

0. 4 0

0. 7

2 0 0 2 -2 0 0 8

4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2 -P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n

V01P OP491030

84.9

0. 3 3

-5. 3

2 0 0 8 -2 01 3

4 9 9 1 0 1 0 2 - St e e n b e e k; M er k e m

V 0 1SS V 4 9 9 1 4 0

16.1

0. 2 9

-3. 1

1 9 9 9-2 0 0 4

4 6 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Ijz er; R o es br u g g e H ari n g e 4 9 5 1 0 1 0 2 - I e p erl e e; Z ui ds c h ot e

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A T a bl e 1 4 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e IJz er b asi n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

V ali d ati o n p eri o d

4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k

V01 H A N488180

78.6

0. 6 4

2. 5

2 0 0 4 -2 0 0 9

4 6 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Ijz er; R o es br u g g e H ari n g e

V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9 ( V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 0 1 0 e n F 0 1 Y S E 4 6 8 0 0 0)

393.0

0. 0 1

-4. 8

2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 0

4 9 5 1 0 1 0 2 - I e p erl e e; Z ui ds c h ot e

V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0

63.4

0. 5 9

0. 4

1 9 9 0 -1 9 9 4

4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 -K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e

V01KE M492060

73.9

0. 4 7

-2. 6

1 9 8 6 -2 0 0 8

4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m

V01 M AR496120

76.1

0. 5 9

-1. 0

1 9 8 6 -1 9 9 0

4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2 -P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n

V01P OP491030

84.9

0. 3 1

6. 4

2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 7

4 9 9 1 0 1 0 2 - St e e n b e e k; M er k e m

V 0 1SS V 4 9 9 1 4 0

1 6, 1

0. 3 2

2. 2

1 9 9 3 -1 9 9 8

C at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0

Fi g ur e 1 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 HA N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 1 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d ).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 1 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] d urin g s p e cifi c l o w fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0.

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0

Fi g ur e 1 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 1 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 2 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 2

Br u gs e P ol d ers

6. 2. 1

C o nt e xt

T h e c at c h m e nt of t h e Br u gs e P ol d ers h as a n ar e a of 1 0 4 6 k m², w hi c h is 4 % of t h e t ot al ar e a of s u b c at c h m e nts wit hi n t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el. T h e c at c h m e nt is li mit e d b y t h e N ort h S e a i n t h e N ort h a n d b y t h e D ut c h b or d er i n t h e N ort h e ast. T h e m ai n ri v ers of t h e b asi n ar e t h e c a n al c o n n e cti n g G e nt a n d O ost e n d e ( K a n a al G e nt -O os t en d e), t h e d e vi ati o n c a n al ( Afl ei di n gs k a n a al) of t h e L ei e a n d t h e L e o p ol d c a n al. T h es e artifi ci al c a n als tr a ns p ort w at er fr o m t h e L ei e c at c h m e nt t o w ar ds t h e s e a. A d diti o n all y, s e v er al l o c al p ol d er w at er c o urs e s fl o w i nt o t h es e c a n als ( D e B o e c k et al. 2 0 1 1 ). I n t h e Br u gs e P ol d ers, f o ur g a u g e d c at c h m e nts a c c o u nt f or 2 9 % of t h e t ot al s urf a c e ar e a. T h e ar e a of t h e c at c h m e nts r a n g es fr o m 4 5 t o 7 7 k m² (Fi g ur e 2 1 ). 6. 2. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e

T a bl e 1 5 a n d T a bl e 1 6 pr es e nt t h e g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e Br u gs e P ol d ers f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. Gr a p hs of si m ul ati o ns of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 ( b est p erf or m a n c e) a n d V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( w orst p erf orm a n c e) ar e pr es e nt e d fr o m Fi g ur e 2 2 t o Fi g ur e 2 9 . F or m or e d et ail e d r es ults of t h e c ali br ati o n, v ali d ati o n, a n d a ut o c ali br ati o n o n c at c h m e nts, s e e A p p e n di x 4 a n d A p p e n di x 5 . Fi g u r e 2 2 a n d Fi g ur e 2 4 s h o w r el ati v el y g o o d a gr e e m e nt b et w e e n si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d d ail y dis c h ar g e wit h L o g N S E at 0. 6 0 a n d 0. 6 0 f or t h e c a li br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n at t h e o utl et of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0, r es p e cti v el y. I n a d diti on, t h e h y dr o gr a p hs i n di c at e t h at t h e si m ul at e d c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e fits t h e m e as ur e d c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e w ell ( Fi g ur e 2 3 a n d Fi g ur e 2 5 ). T his is als o c o nfir m e d b y t h e R el Err v al u es r a n g es fr o m -5. 1 % t o 2. 4 %. C o nsi d eri n g t h e c at c h m e nt wit h c o d e V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0, t h e m o d el u n d er esti m at e d fl o w o v er t h e wi nt er p eri o d of 2 0 1 2 a n d 2 0 1 3 i n t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d a n d 2 0 0 6, 2 0 0 7, a n d 2 0 0 8 i n t h e v ali d ati o n p eri o d i n g e n er al (Fi g ur e 2 6 a n d Fi g ur e 2 8 ). T his r es ults i n hi g h st atisti c al R el Err v al u e, a c hi e v e d -5. 1 % f or t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d a n d t h e n i n cr e as e d t o -1 0. 1 % f or t h e v ali d ati o n p eri o d (T a bl e 1 5 a n d T a bl e 1 6 ). F or t h e c at c h m e nt s V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0 a n d V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0 , t h e m o d el si m ul at e d l o w fl o w f air el y w ell f or t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d, b ut it o v er esti m at e d l o w fll o w d uri n g t h e y e ars 1 9 8 8 -1 9 8 9 (i n t h e c as e of V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0) a n d 1 9 8 6 1 9 9 0 (i n t h e c as e of V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0). H o w e v er, t h es e c at c h m e nts s h o w a s uffi ci e nt m o d el p erf o m a n c e i n pr e di cti n g t ot al fl o w ( A p p e n di x 4 ). D at a r e m ar k: V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0 d o es n ot h a v e d at a aft er 2 0 0 7, b y c o ns e q u e n c e t h e p eri o d 1 9 8 9-2 0 0 7 w as s el e ct e d f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n.

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 2 1 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e a s ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e Br u gs e P ol d ers.

T a bl e 1 5 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e Br u gs e P ol d er s

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M al d e g e m

V02E DE442120

45.5

0. 4 9

-5. 1

2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3

4 2 6 1 0 1 0 2 - H erts b er g e b e e k; O ost k a m p

V02 HE R426010

77.3

0. 6

-5. 1

2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 3

4 2 2 0 1 0 2 - K er k e b e e k, Si nt Mi c hi els

V02KE R422030

62.7

0. 5 4

-6. 1

2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 7

4 2 5 1 0 1 0 2 - Ri vi er b e e k; O os t k a m p

V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0

64.0

0. 6 5

-2. 2

2 0 0 3 -2 0 1 3

l og NSE

R el E rr ( %)

T a bl e 1 6 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e Br u gs e P ol d er s

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

V ali d ati o n p eri o d

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ald e g e m

V02E DE442120

45.5

0. 5 4

-1 0. 1

2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 8

4 2 6 1 0 1 0 2 - H erts b er g e b e e k; O ost k a m p

V02 HE R426010

77.3

0. 6

2. 4

1 9 8 6 -1 9 9 4

4 2 2 0 1 0 2 - K er k e b e e k, Si nt Mi c hi els

V02KE R422030

62.7

0. 4

3. 3

1 9 9 8 -1 9 9 3

4 2 5 1 0 1 0 2 - Ri vi er b e e k; O ost k a m p

V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0

64.0

0. 3 6

0. 6

1 9 8 5 -1 9 9 2

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0

Fi g ur e 2 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 2 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e d is c h ar g e [m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 2 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 2 5 – M e as ur e d (re d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0

Fi g ur e 2 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 2 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 2 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 2 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 3

G e nts e K a n al e n

6. 3. 1

C o nt e xt

T h e G e nts e K a n al e n c at c h m e nt, c o v ers a cl ust er of c a n als a n d t h eir r es p e cti v e c at c h m e nts a n d h as a s urf a c e ar e a of 9 1 7 k m² ( D e B o e c k, 2 0 1 1). T h e c at c h m e nt r e pr es e nts 4 % of t h e t ot al m o d el ar e a of t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el. T h e G e nts e K a n al e n b asi n is li mit e d W est b y t h e B r u gs e P ol d ers, E ast b y t h e B e n e d e ns c h el d e a n d S o ut h b y t h e L ei e c at c h m e nt. T h e D ut c h b or d er st a n ds i n t h e N ort h of t h e b asi n. B ot h t h e L e o p ol d c a n al a n d t h e G e nt-T er n e uz e n c a n al dis c h ar g e i nt o t h e W est ers c h el d e ( W est er n S c h el dt) i n t h e N et h erl a n ds. I n t his ar e a, t h er e is o nl y o n e g a u g e d c at c h m e nt n a m e d V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 . T h e g a u gi n g st ati o n of t his c at c h m e nt is 4 4 6 5 6 1 2 2 o n t h e P o e k e b e e k i n N e v el e (Fi g ur e 3 0 ).

Fi g ur e 3 0 – S u b c at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e G e nt s e K a n al e n c at c h m e nt

6. 3. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e

T a bl e 1 7 a n d T a bl e 1 8 pr es e nt g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e G e nts e K a n al e n b asi n f or t h e v ali d ati o n a n d c ali br ati o n p eri o d. Gr a p hs of t h e si m ul ati o n of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 is pr es e nt e d b el o w ( Fi g ur e 3 1 t o Fi g ur e 3 4 ). F or m or e d et ail e d r es ults o n t h e ot h er c at c h m e nts, s e e A p p e n di x 6 a n d A p p e n di x 7. As c a n b e s e e n fr o m Fi g ur e 3 1 a n d Fi g ur e 3 3 , t h e tr e n d a n d m a g nit u d e of t h e dis c h ar g e ar e g e n er all y i n g o o d a grr e e m e nt wit h t h e m e as ur e d d at a. T his is als o c o nfir m e d b y t h e Lo g N S E v al u es i n t h e r a n g e of 0. 7 7 -0. 7 8 f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. T h e v al u es of R ell Err ar e hi g h er t h a n -1. 7 % f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( T a bl e 1 7 a n d T a bl e 1 8 ). D a t a r e m ar k: t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 d o es n ot h a v e d at a fr o m 1 8/ 0 1/ 2 0 0 1 t o 2 9/ 1 1/ 2 0 0 4 a n d aft er 2 0 0 9. T h er e f or e t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d w er e s el e ct e d fr o m 2 0 0 5 -2 0 0 9 a n d 1 9 9 5 -2 0 0 0, r es p e cti v el y. Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A T a bl e 1 7 – O v er vi e w of cali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e G e nts e K a n al e n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

4 4 6 5 6 1 2 2 - P o e k e b e e k; N e v el e

V03P OE446000

1 0 6. 8

0. 7 7

-1. 2

1 9 9 5 -2 0 0 0

T a bl e 1 8 – O v e r vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e G e nt s e K a n al e n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

4 4 6 5 6 1 2 2 - P o e k e b e e k; N e v el e

V03P OE446000

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²) 106.8

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

G a u g e d y e ar s

0. 7 8

-1. 7

1 9 8 9 -1 9 9 3

C at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0

Fi g ur e 3 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0, ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 PO E 4 4 6 0 0 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 3 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m ³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul at i v e dis c h ar g e [m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 4

B e n e d e ns c h el d e

6. 4. 1

C o nt e xt

T h e c at c h m e nt of t h e B e n e d e ns c h el d e is 1 7 0 4 k m² a n d b el o n gs t o t h e m ai n S c h el dt c at c h m e nt. It c o v ers t h e Fl e mis h p art of t h e ti d al ri v ers i n t h e S c h el dt est u ar y, e x c e pt t h e c at c h m e nts c orr es p o n di n g t o t h e m ai n tri b ut ari es i n t his r e a c h ( N et e, D e m er, Dijl e, Z e n n e a n d D e n d er). T h e B e n e d e ns c hel d e c at c h m e nt a c c o u nts f or 8 % of t h e t ot al c at c h m e nt of t h e st u d y ar e a. T h er e ar e t w o g a u gi n g st ati o ns i n t his ar e a, n a m e d 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e a n d 3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n ( Fi g ur e 3 5 ).

Fi g ur e 3 5 – S u b c at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e B e n e d e ns c h el d e c at c h m e nt

6. 4. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e

T a bl e 1 9 a n d T a bl e 2 0 pr es e nt g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e B e n e d e ns c h el d e b asi n f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v a li d ati o n p eri o d. Gr a p hs of si m ul ati o n of t h e c at c h m e nts V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 ( b est m o d el p erf or m a n c e) a n d V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 ( w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e) ar e pr es e nt e d b el o w ( Fi g ur e 3 6 t o Fi g ur e 4 3 ). F or m or e d et ail e d r es ults of t h e c ali br ati o n, v ali d ati o n, a n d a ut o c ali br ati o n o n t h e c at c h m e nts, s e e A p p e n di x 8 a n d A p p e n di x 9. T h e r es ults of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 s h o w e d v er y g o o d a gr e e m e nt b et w e e n si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d d ail y dis c h ar g e wit h L o g N S E i n t h e r a n g e fr o m 0. 7 1 -0. 8 2 f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d, ( T a bl e 1 9 a n d T a bl e 2 0 ). I n a d diti o n, l o w v al u es of R el Err, fr o m 0. 8 % t o 3. 0 %, i n di c at e t h at t h e m o d el a d e q u at el y pr e di ct e d p e a k dis c h ar g es a n d r u n off v ol u m es f or t h e w h ol e ti m e p e ri od. F or t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0, a sli g ht diff er e n c e b et w e e n si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d l o w fl o w w as o c c ur e d d uri n g t h e v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( Fi g ur e 4 2 ). T his r es ult e d i n a si g nifi c a nt d e cr e as e i n L o g N S E ( 0. 0 6 %) (T a bl e 2 0 ). H o w e v er, t h e m o d el p erf o m e d s atisf a ct or y i n si m ul ati n g t ot al fl o w f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d, a c hi e v e d t h e R el Err v al u es i n t h e r a n g e fr o m 1. 3 % t o 5. 5 % ( T a bl e 1 9 a n d T a bl e 2 0 ).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A T a bl e 1 9 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e B e n e d e ns c h el d e b asi n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e

V 0 4 M OL 0 3 6 1 1 0

32.6

0. 3 4

1. 3

2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 3

3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n

V04 M O M037100

67.3

0. 7 1

0. 8

2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3

l og NSE

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

R el Err( %)

T a bl e 2 0- O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e B e n e d e ns c h el d e b asi n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C a t c hm e nt c o d e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e

V 0 4 M OL 0 3 6 1 1 0

3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n

V04 M O M037100

V ali d ati o n p eri o d

l og NSE

R el Err( %)

3 2. 6

0. 0 6

5. 5

2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 7

6 7. 3

0. 8 2

-3. 0

2 0 0 2 -2 0 0 6

C at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0

Fi g ur e 3 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 ( Ca li br ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 (C ali br a ti o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 3 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e di s c h ar g e [m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 (V ali d ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0

Fi g ur e 4 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 ( Ca li br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 4 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 (C ali br a ti o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 ( Vali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 4 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 ( V ali da ti o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 5

L ei e

6. 5. 1

C o nt e xt

T h e L ei e c at c h m e nt, b ei n g p art of t h e i nt er n ati o n al “ L ei e a n d D e ûl e ” b a si n, h as a n ar e a of 3 8 8 6 k m² of w hi c h 9 8 2 k m² is sit u at e d i n Fl a n d ers. I n G h e nt, t h e L ei e c o nfl u e n c es wit h t h e S c h el dt. T h e s u b c at c h m e nts of t h e L ei e c o u nt f or 1 8 % of t h e t ot al st u d y ar e a. I n Fr a n c e, t h e L ei e ( or L ys i n Fr e n c h) is c o n n e ct e d t o t h e C a n al d e N e uf oss é a n d t h e C a n al d’ Air e à l a B ass é e, b ot h p art of t h e c a n al s yst e m b et w e e n D ui n k er k e a n d D e n ai n. T his c a n al c o nstit ut es t h e E ast -W est li n k b et w e e n t h e S c h el dt, t h e D e ûl e, t h e L ei e a n d t h e N ort h S e a. T h e D u n k er q u e -D e n ai n c a n al is s u p pli e d wit h w at e r of t h e S c h el d e a n d its tri b ut ar y, t h e S c ar p e. T h e L ei e b asi n c o nsists of 0 3 g a u g e d c at c h m e nts, of w hi c h c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9 c o v er s all ar e as of t h e Fr a n c e si d e w hil e t h e ot h er t w o g a u g e d c at c h m e nt s, V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 a n d V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0, ar e l o c at e d i n Fl a n d er s. T h e l o c ati o n of t h e g a u g e d st ati o ns us e d f or c ali br ati o n of t h e W E T S P A m o d el o n t h e L ei e b asi n is s h o w n i n Fi g ur e 4 4 .

Fi g ur e 4 4 – S u b c at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e L ei e c at c h m e nt

6. 5. 2

M o d e l p erf or m a n c es

T a bl e 2 1 a n d T a bl e 2 2 pr es e nt g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e L ei e b asi n f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. Gr a p hs of si mul ati o ns f or t h e c at c h m e nts V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 ( b est m o d el p erf or m a n c e) a n d V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e) ar e pr es e nt e d b el o w ( Fi g ur e 4 5 t oFi g ur e 5 3 ). F or m or e d et ai l e d r es ults of t h e c ali br ati o n, v ali d ati o n, a n d a ut o c ali br ati o n o n t h e c at c h m e nts is r eff er e d t o A p p e n di x 1 0 a n d A p p e n di x 1 1 . T h e h y dr o gr a p hs d e m o nstr at e a g o o d a gr e e m e nt b et w e e n si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d v al u es f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d at t h e o utl et of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 ( Fi g ur e 4 5 a n d Fi g ur e 4 7 ). C o nsi d eri n g t h e v ali d ati o n p eri o d fr o m 1 9 7 5 -2 0 0 1, t h e si m ul at e d c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e fits t h e m e as ur e d o n es v er y w ell. T his w as c o nfir m e d b y v er y l o w v al u e of R el Err ( 0. 1 %). Si mil ar g o o d r es ults c o ul d b e f o u n d f or Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

t h e c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI3 8 6 9 9 9. R e g ar di n g t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0, t h e m o d el r e pr es e nt e d t h e dis c h ar g e f airl y w ell d uri n g t h e w h ol e p eri o d of t h e c a li br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n (Fi g ur e 5 0 a n d Fi g ur e 5 2 ). H o w e v er, t h e m o d el u n d er esti m at e d dis c h ar g e d uri n g t h e wi nt er s e as o n of 1 9 8 8, 1 9 9 0, a n d 1 9 91 , r es ulti n g i n a mi n or diff ere n c e b et w e e n t h e si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d c u m u l ati v e dis c h ar g e (Fi g ur e 5 0 a n d Fi g ur e 5 2 ). I n g e n er al, all t h e c at c h m e nts s h o w a g o o d m o d el p erf or m a n c e f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. T h e v al u e of L o g N S E r a n g es fr o m 0. 5 1 -0. 6 3 f or t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d a n d fr o m 0. 5 5 -0. 6 5 f or t h e v ali d ati o n p eri o d (T a bl e 2 1 a n d T a bl e 2 2 ). T a bl e 2 1 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e L ei e b a si n

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

R el Err ( %)

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

3 8 6 8 0 1 2 2, L ei e t e M e n e n

F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9

2 9 8 1. 8

0. 6 1

-1. 8

2 0 0 3 -2 0 1 3

4 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 - He ul e b e e k; H e ul e

V05 HE U403210

9 1. 9

0. 6 3

-5. 8

2 0 0 2 -2 0 0 7

4 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n d el; O ostr oz e b e k e

V05 M A N401230

2 5 8. 4

0. 5 1

-5. 0

1 9 8 8 -1 9 9 2

l og NSE

T a bl e 2 2 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e L ei e b asi n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

3 8 6 8 0 1 2 2, L ei e t e M e n e n

F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9

4 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H e ul e b e e k; H e ul e 4 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n d el; O ostr oz e b e k e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

V ali d ati o n p eri o d

2 9 8 1. 8

0. 7 3

-1. 5

1 9 9 8 -2 0 0 2

V05 HE U403210

9 1. 9

0. 6 5

0. 1

1 9 7 5 -2 0 0 1

V05 M A N401230

2 5 8. 4

0. 5 5

4. 3

1 9 7 0- 1 9 7 5

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0

Fi g ur e 4 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 4 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u mul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 (C ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 4 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 (V ali d a ti o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0.

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0

Fi g ur e 5 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 5 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 5 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 6

B o v e ns c h el d e

6. 6. 1

C o nt e xt

T h e B o v e ns c h el d e b asi n e xt e n ds t o Fr a n c e, W all o ni a a n d Fl a n d ers. T his b asi n c o v ers a s urf a c e ar e a of 5 7 6 k m² . B ef ore it e nt ers Fl a n d ers i n S pi er e -H el kij n, t h e S c h el d e h as c o v er e d 1 2 4 k m, wit h a n u pstr e a m c at c h m e nt of 5 3 8 0 k m² i n Fr a n c e a n d W all o ni a. T h e B o v e ns c h el d e b asi n a c c o u nts f or 3 0 % of t h e t ot al c at c h m e nt of t h e st u d y ar e a. T h e B oss uit -K ortrij k c a n al c o n n e cts t h e B o v e ns c h el d e t o t h e L ei e, w h er e as t h e S pi er e k a n a al li n ks t h e B o v e ns c h el d e t o t h e D e ûl e (Fi g ur e 5 4 ).

Fi g ur e 5 4 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e a s ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e B o v e ns c h el d e b asi n.

6. 6. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e

T a bl e 2 3 a n d T a bl e 2 4 pr es e nt g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e B o v e ns c h el d e b asi n f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. Gr a p hs of si m ul ati o ns of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 (t h e b est m o d el p erf o m a n c e) a n d F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 (t h e w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e) ar e pr es e nt e d b el o w ( Fi g ur e 5 5 a n d Fi g ur e 6 3 ). F or m or e d et ail e d r es ults o n t h e c at c h m e nts is r eff er e d t o A p p e n di x 1 2 a n d A p p e n di x 1 3 . Fi g ur e 5 5 a n d F i g ur e 5 7 s h o w v er y g o o d a gr e e m e nt b et w e e n si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d d ail y dis c h ar g e wit h L o g N S E a n d R el Err at 0. 6 5 a n d -2. 8 % f or t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d a n d 0. 6 9 a n d -0. 5 % f or t h e v ali d ati o n p eri o d at t h e o utl et of t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 , r es p e cti v el y. T h e L o g N S E v al u es hi g h er t h a n 0. 6 5 i n di c at e t h at l o w fl o w e v e nts w er e r e pr o d u c e d w ell f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. A n ot h er a d e q u at e m o d el p erf or m a n c e w as f o u n d f or t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0 ( A p p e n di x 1 2 ). R e g ar di n g t o t h e c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9, t h e r es p e cti v e v al u es of L o g N S E a n d R el Err ar e 0. 6 a n d -2. 6 % f or t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( T a bl e 2 3 ). H o w e v er, as s h o w n i n Fi g ur e 6 2 , t h e diff er e n c e i n l o w fl o w is hi g h er wit hin t h e y e ar 2 0 1 3. T his is pr o b a bl y d u e t o u nr e ali b e m e as ur e d l o w fl o w d at a i n t his p eri o d. F or t h e c at c h m e nt W 0 6 R H O L 5 4 1 0 0, t h e si m ul ati o n pr o bl e ms i n t h e v ali d ati o n p eri o d ar e d u e t o t h e s h ort c ali br ati o n p eri o d of 0 1 y e ar, alt h o u g h

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

t h e dis c h ar g e w as r es pr es e nt e d w ell f or t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( Fi g ur e 6 0 ). T his r es ults ar e als o si mil ar wit h t h e N A M m o d el r es ults f or t his c at c h m e nt. D at a r e m ar k: T h e st ati o n 3 2 5 8 0 1 2 2 – B o v e ns c h el d e i n B oss uit ( F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9) o nl y h as m e as ur e d dis c h ar g e fr o m 1 3/ 0 9/ 2 0 0 1. T h e c at c h m e nt W 0 6 R H O L 5 4 1 0 0 o nl y h as o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e d at a fr o m F e br u ar y 2 0 1 2 s o t h at t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o ds o nl y c o v er l ess t h a n t w o y e ars. T a bl e 2 3 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e B o v e ns c h el d e b asi n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

3 2 5 8 0 1 2 2 - B o v e ns c h el d e; B oss uit

F06 B OS325999

5217.6

0. 6

-2. 6

2 0 0 5 -2 0 1 3

3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e

V06 M A A347160

48.7

0. 5 1

-1. 9

1 9 9 4 -2 0 0 8

3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m

V06Z W A3 4219 0

112.1

0. 6 5

-2. 8

2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 2

L 5 4 1 2 A m o u gi es - R h os n es

W 0 6 R H OL 5 4 1 0 0

161.9

0. 7 3

1. 2

0 1 -1 2. 2 0 1 3

T a bl e 2 4 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e B o v e ns c h el d e b asi n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

V ali d ati o n p eri o d

3 2 5 8 0 1 2 2 - B o v e ns c h el d e; B o ss uit

F06 B OS325999

5217.6

0. 6

-2. 6

2 0 0 3 -2 0 1 3

3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e

V06 M A A34716 0

48.7

0. 5

-4. 8

2 0 0 2 -2 0 0 5

3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m

V06Z W A3 4219 0

112.1

0. 6 9

-0. 5

2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 8

L 5 4 1 2 A m o u gi es - R h os n es

W 0 6 R H OL 5 4 1 0 0

161.9

0. 4

2 1. 3

0 1 -1 2. 2 0 1 2

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0

Fi g ur e 5 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ai l y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 5 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( C ali bra ti o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 5 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( V ali da ti o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w fl o w e v e nt s o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0.

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9

Fi g ur e 6 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( b l u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d) .

Fi g ur e 6 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d) .

Fi g ur e 6 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 7

D e n d er b e k k e n

6. 7. 1

C o nt e xt

T h e D e n d er b asi n h as a n ar e a of 1 3 8 4 k m² a n d e xt e n ds o v er W all o ni a a n d Fl a n d ers. T h e u pstr e a m p art ( 6 7 5 k m²) is l o c at e d i n W all o ni a a n d t h e l o w er p art ( 7 0 9 k m²) i n Fl a n d ers. T h e D e n d er b asi n a c c o u nts f or 6 % of t h e t ot al c at c h m e nt of t h e st u d y ar e a. Wit h 5 g a u gi n g st ati o ns us e d f or m o d el c ali br ati o n, t h e p orti o n of g a u g e d c at c h m e nts i n t his b asi n a c c o u nts f or 6 1 % of t ot al c at c h m e nt ar e a. T h e g a u gi n g st ati o n i n L essi n es is us e d t o c ali br at e a h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el f or t h e c at c h m e nt u pstr e a m of t his g a u gi n g st ati o n. I n t h e w at er all o c ati o n m o d el, t his c at c h m e nt is di vi d e d i nt o 3 s u b c at c h m e nts.

Fi g ur e 6 4 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e a s ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e D e n d er b asi n.

6. 7. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e

T a bl e 2 5 a n d T a bl e 2 6 pr es e nt g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e D e n d er b asi n f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. Gr a p hs of si m ul ati o ns f or t h e c at c h m e nts V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 (t h e b est m o d el p er f orm a n c e) a n d V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 (t h e w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e) ar e pr es e nt e d b el o w (Fi g ur e 6 5 t o Fi g ur e 7 2 ). F or m or e d et ail e d r es ults o n t h e ot h er c at c h m e nts is r eff er e d t o A p p e n di x 1 4 a n d A p p e n d i x 1 5. T h e si m ul a t e d fl ow r at es f or m ost of t h e c at c h m e nts ar e i n a gr e e m e nt wit h t h e o bs er v e d fl o w r at es, wit h v al u es of L o g N S E hi g h er t h a n 0. 5 2 f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d, e x c e pt c at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 . As c a n b e s e e n i n Fi g ur e 6 5 a n d Fi g ur e 6 7 , t h e m o d el p erf or m e d w ell f or pr e di cti n g str e a m fl o w i n t h e c at c h m ent V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 . T h e L o g N S E v al u es a b o v e 0. 6 9 a n d t h e R el Err v al u es b el o w -1. 1 % s h o w e d cl os e a gr e e m e nt b et w e e n t h e m e as ur e d a n d si m ul at e d dis c h a r g e d uri n g t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( T a bl e 2 5 a n d T a bl e 2 6 ). A si mil ar r es ults c o ul d b e f o u n d f or t h e c at c h m e nts V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0, V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5, a n d V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0 ( A p p e n di x 1 4 ).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

D at a r e m ar k: t h e ga u gi n g st ati o n 2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e ( V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0) d o es n ot h a v e dis c h ar g e d at a d uri n g t h e y e ars 2 0 1 0 a n d 2 0 1 1, s o t h at t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d is li mit e d u ntil 2 0 0 9. I n t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0, t h e y e ars aft er 2 0 0 9 h a v e b e e n d el et e d d u e t o t h e e xist e n c e of u nr eli a bl e m e as ur e d dis c h ar g e d at a a n d t h er ef or e t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d is u ntil 2 0 0 9. T h e c at c h m e nt W 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 d o es n ot h a v e dis c h ar g e d at a b ef or e t h e y e ar 2 0 0 8 a n d t h er ef or e t h e si m ul ati o n p eri o d is s el e ct e d fr o m 2 0 0 8 o n w ar ds . T a bl e 2 5 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e D e n d er b asi n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

2 8 5 1 0 1 0 2 - B ell e b e e k, Ess e n e

V 0 7 B EL 2 8 5 0 7 0

88.7

0. 7 6

0. 4

2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 4

2 8 9 7 0 1 0 2 - M ar k e, Vi a n e

V07 M AR289015

173.9

0. 5 7

-1. 7

2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 2

2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e

V07 M OE282100

46.4

0. 6 9

-1. 1

2 0 0 5 -2 0 0 9

2 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, G er a ar ds b er g e n

V07 M O G288020

23.1

0. 3 7

1. 2

2 0 0 5 -2 0 0 9

L essi n es

W 0 7 D E NL E S 9 9 9

511.8

0. 5 2

-5. 8

2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 3

T a bl e 2 6 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e D e n d er b asi n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

V ali d ati o n p eri o d

2 8 5 1 0 1 0 2 - B ell e b e e k, Ess e n e

V 0 7 B EL 2 8 5 0 7 0

88.7

0. 7 1

-0. 2

2 0 0 5 - 20 0 6

2 8 9 7 0 1 0 2 - M ar k e, Vi a n e

V07 M AR289015

173.9

-1. 7

0. 6

1 9 9 6 -2 0 0 0

2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e

V07 M OE282100

46.4

0. 7

-0. 5

1 9 8 6 -1 9 9 8

2 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, G er a ar ds b er g e n

V07 M O G288020

23.1

0. 7

-7. 9

1 9 9 8 -2 0 0 2

L essi n es

W 0 7 D E NL E S 9 9 9

511.8

0. 3 5

5. 9

2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 0

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0

Fi g ur e 6 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 6 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m u l ati v e dis c h ar g e [m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( V ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 6 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9

Fi g ur e 6 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 ( C ali brati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 7 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 ( C ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y d is c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 ( V ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi g ur e 7 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 ( V ali br ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 8

Dijl e a n d Z e n n e

6. 8. 1

C o nt e xt

T h e Dijl e b asi n s tr et c h es o v er Fl a n d ers ( 5 5 %) a n d W all o ni a ( 4 5 %) a n d h as a n ar e a of a b o ut 1 2 9 0 k m². T h e Z e n n e b asi n ( c a. 1 1 6 0 k m²) s pr e a ds a cr oss W all o ni a ( 5 0 %), Br uss els ( 1 4 %) a n d Fl a n d ers ( 3 6 %). I n t ot al, t h e Dijl e a n d Z e n n e b asi n a c c o u nts f or 1 1 % of t h e t ot al are a of t h e S c h el dt b asi n. C at c h m e nts a n d g a u gi n g st ati o ns ar e r e pr es e nt e d i n Fi g ur e 7 3 . Fi g ur e 7 3 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e as ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e Dijl e a n d Z e n n e b asi ns. Fi v e st ati o ns ar e l o c at e d o n t h e Z e n n e o n its tri but ari es b ef or e t h e c o nfl u e n c e wit h t h e Dijl e, m e as uri n g dis c h ar g e f or 4 3 % of t h e Z e n n e c at c h m e nt. T h e dis c h ar g e of t h e Dijl e is m e as ur e d b y o n e st ati o n i n Wils el e ( 6 7 % of t h e c at c h m e nt s urf a c e ar e a is g a u g e d).

Fi g ur e 7 3 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e a s ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e Dijl e a n d Z e n n e b asi ns.

6. 8. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e

T a bl e 2 7 a n d T a bl e 2 8 pr es e nt g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d Z e n n e b asi ns f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. Gr a p hs of si W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 (t h e b est m o d el p erf or m a n c e) a n d V 0 8 DIJ 0 9 3 4 0 0 (t h e pr es e nt e d b el o w ( Fi g ur e 7 4 t o Fi g ur e 8 1 ). F or m or e d et ail e d r es ults o n t h e A p p e n di x 1 6 a n d A p p e n di x 1 7 .

c at c h m e nt s of t h e D ijl e a n d t h e m ul ati o ns f or t h e c at c h m e nts w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e) ar e ot h er c at c h m e nts is r ef err e d t o

T h e c at c h m e nts W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0, V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0, V 0 8 Z U U 2 3 3 1 0 0, W 0 8 S E N L 5 6 0 1 0, a n d W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0 h a v e a d e q u at e m o d el p erf or m a n c e wit h L o g N S E v al u es a b o v e 0. 5 8 ( E x e pt f or W 0 8 S E N L 5 6 0 1 0 a n d W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0, alt h o u g h t h es e c a n b e c o nsi d er e d as a d e q u at e as l o w fl o ws ar e c orr e ctl y r e pr es e nt e d). O v er all, th e m o d el a c c ur at el y pr e di ct e d fl o w m a gtit u d e f or t h es e c at c h m e n ts. T his is gi v e n b y t h e v al u es of R el Err r a n gi n g fr o m -0. 5 % t o -5. 5 % a n d fr o m -1. 0 % t o 6. 1 % f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d, r es p e cti v el y (T a bl e 2 7 a n d T a bl e 2 8 ). T h e w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e w as f o u n d i n t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 8 DIJ 0 9 3 4 0 0. Alt h o u g h t h e m o d el w as p erf or m e d f airl y w ell i n si m ul ati n g t h e dis c h ar g e f or t h e c ali br ati o n Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

p eri o d ( 1 9 7 4 -1 9 8 9), o v er esti m e d ati o n a n d u n d er esti m ati o n of l o w fl o w w er e o c c urr e d i n t h e v a li d ati o n p eri o d ( Fi g ur e 8 0 ). S o m e e x pl a n ati o ns w er e c o nsi d er e d i n a pr e vi o us r e p ort t o e x pl ai n t h e mis m at c h b et w e e n t h e o bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d dis c h ar g e d at a ( D e B o e c k et al., 2 0 1 1). Firstl y, t h e p o or r es ults w er e attri b ut e d t o t h e eff e ct of v e g et ati o n i n t h e g a u gi n g st ati o n, w hi c h m a y i nfl u e n c e t h e m e as ur e m e nts. A n ot h er e x pl a n ati o ns ar e t h e f a ct of a d a m c o ns tr u cti o n i n 1 9 9 4, w hi c h w o ul d m a k e t h e r el ati o ns hi p n o l o n g er v ali d a n d t h e i nfl u e n c e of a l ar g e s e w a g e pl a nt w h os e effl u e nt e nt e rs th e li m ni gr a af t h e Dijl e t o Wi ls el e. D at a r e m ar k: T h e c at c h m e nt V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0 o nl y h as m e as ur e d dis c h ar g e d at a fr o m 0 2/ 0 1/ 1 9 97 t o 0 4/ 1 1/ 2 0 0 4, s o t h at t his e ntir e p eri o d fr o m 1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 3 w as s el e ct e d f or t h e si m ul ati o n. T h e c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 d o es n ot h a v e d at a aft er 2 0 1 0, t h er ef or e t h e si m ul ati o n p eri o d w as c h os e n u ntil 2 0 1 0. T a bl e 2 7 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e Dijl e a n d Z e n n e b asi ns

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

R el Err ( %)

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 -B ar e b e e k, H ofst a d e

V08B AR111370

7 0. 0

0. 7 3

2. 5

1 9 9 8 -2 0 0 3

9 3 1 0 1 0 2 - Dijl e, Wils el e

V 0 8 DIJ 0 9 3 4 0 0

861.4

0. 3 9

-1. 1

1 9 7 4 -1 9 8 9

2 3 3 1 0 1 0 2 - Z u u n b e e k, St Pi et ersl e e u w

V08Z U U233 100

64.8

0. 5 9

-5. 5

1 9 9 6 -2 0 1 2

2 3 7 1 -1 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es

W 0 8S A M R O N 0 0 0

134.0

0. 6 2

-0. 5

2 0 0 5 -2 0 1 0

L 5 6 7 0 -S e n ett e, R o n q ui er es

W 0 8S E NL 5 6 0 1 0

70.4

0. 4 5

1. 2

1 9 9 1 -1 9 9 7

1 9 5 1 -1 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e

W 0 8SE NT U B0 3 0

215.9

0. 5 8

-1. 5

2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 1

l og NSE

T a bl e 2 8 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e Dijl e a n d Z e n n e b asi ns

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

R el Err ( %)

V ali d ati o n p eri o d

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 -B ar e b e e k, H ofst a d e

V08B AR111370

7 0. 0

0. 7 4

6. 1

1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 3

9 3 1 0 1 0 2 - Dijl e, Wils el e

V 0 8 DIJ 0 9 3 4 0 0

861.4

0. 2

-7. 0

1 9 9 8 - 20 0 2

2 3 3 1 0 1 0 2 - Z u u n b e e k, St Pi et ersl e e u w

V08Z U U233 100

64.8

0. 6 6

1. 5

1 9 8 6 -1 9 9 0

2 3 7 1 -1 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es

W 0 8S A M R O N 0 0 0

134.0

0. 7 4

-1. 6

1 9 9 9 -2 0 0 3

L 5 6 7 0 -S e n ett e, R o n q ui er es

W 0 8S E NL 5 6 0 1 0

70.4

0. 5 7

-1. 0

1 9 7 9 -1 9 8 3

1 9 5 1 -1 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e

W 0 8SE NT U B0 3 0

215.9

0. 4 6

-2. 8

2 0 0 1 -2 0 0 6

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

l og NSE

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0

Fi g ur e 7 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n).

Fi g ur e 7 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u mul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n).

Fi g ur e 7 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0

Fi g ur e 7 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( C ali br atio n) .

Fi g ur e 7 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n) .

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m ent V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 8 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 9

D e m er b e k k e n

6. 9. 1

C o nt e xt

T h e D e m er b asi n h as a n ar e a of 2 3 3 4 k m². Fr o m t h at, 1 9 1 9 k m² is l o c at e d i n Fl a n d ers, t h e r est b ei n g i n W all o ni a. It c o ntri b ut es f or 1 0 % of t h e t ot al s urf a c e ar e a of t h e S c h el dt b asi n. T h e n a vi g a bl e ri v ers i n t his c at c h m e nt ar e t h e D e m er a n d t h e Al b ert c a n al. Wi t h 1 0 g a u gi n g st ati o ns, 8 0.3 % of t h e c at c h m e nts i n t h e D e m er ar e g a u g e d. T h es e st ati o ns ar e d e pi ct e d o n Fi g ur e 8 2 .

Fi g ur e 8 2 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e a s ur e m e nt p oi nts o n t h e D e m er b asi n.

6. 9. 2

M o d el p erf or m a n c e

T a bl e 2 9 a n d T a bl e 3 0 pr es e nt g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e D e m er b asi n f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d. Gr a p hs of t h e c at c h m e nts wit h c o d e V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( b est m o d el p erf or m a n c e) a n d V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 (w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e) ar e pr e s e nt e d b el o w ( Fi g ur e 8 3 t o Fi g ur e 9 0 ). F or m or e d et ail e d r es u lts o n t h e ot h er c at c h m e nts is r ef err e d t o A p p e n di x 1 8 a n d A p p e n di x 1 9 . T h e c at c h m e nts wit h c o d e V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 a n d V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0 s h o w a g o o d m o d e l p erf or m a n c e, wit h v al u es of L o g N S E s u p eri or t o 0. 6 f or t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( T a bl e 2 9 a n d T a bl e 3 0 ). A si mil ar b e h a vi or of t h e fl o w p att er ns c a n b e f o u n d i n t h e c as e of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0. T h e g e n er al b e h a vi o ur of t h e m o d el d uri n g t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d f or t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 c a n b e c o nsi d er e d as a d e q u at e (Fi g ur e 8 7 ). H o w e v er, l o w fl o ws ar e n ot c orr e ctl y r e pr es e nt e d as i n s o m e p eri o ds t h e y ar e o v er est i m at e d (i. e. 2 0 0 4, 2 0 0 5, 2 0 1 0), w hil e i n ot h ers t h e y ar e u n d er esti m at e d (i. e. 2 0 0 6 -2 0 0 9). T h e si m ul at e d l o w fl o w r es ults of t h e v ali d ati o n ar e p o or er t h a n t h e c ali br ati o n a n d it c a n b e s u g g est e d a pr o bl e m wit h m e as ur e d d at a (t o o l o w dis c h ar g e i n t h e wi nt er p eri o d of 1 9 9 4 a n d 1 9 9 5). T his r es ult e d i n a n i n cr e as e of t h e R el Err v al u e ( 1 4. 9 %), (s e e T a bl e 3 0 ). R e g ar di n g t h e c at c h m e nts wit h c o d e V O 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0, V 0 9 G E T 1 5 2 0 8 0, V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0, V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0, V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0, l o w fl o ws w er e l ess a c c urat el y esti m at e d f or t h e e ntir e si m ul ati o n p eri o ds. T his is gi v e n b y Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

t h e v al u es of L o g N S E r a n gi n g fr o m 0. 1 t o 0. 6 7 f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d (T a bl e 2 9 a n d T a bl e 3 0 ). N e v ert h l ess, t h e hy dr o gr a p hs s h o w r el ati v e fit b et w e e n t h e si m ul at e d a n d e as ur e d t ot al fl o w i n g e n er al ( A p p e n di x 1 8 ). D at a r e m ar ks: Y e ars 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 3 h a v e b e e n d el et e d fr o m t h e si m ul ati o n f or t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0 d u e t o a n u nr eli a bilit y wit hi n t h e m e as ur e d fl o w (t o o hi g h). T h e c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0 d o es n ot h a v e d at a a v ail a bl e fr o m t h e b e gi n ni n g of 2 0 1 1 a n d b et w e e n 1 1/ 0 5/ 2 0 0 3 -3 1/ 1 2/ 2 0 0 4, s o t h at t h e r es p e cti v e p eri o ds 2 0 0 5 -2 0 0 9 a n d 1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 2 h a v e b e e n us e d f or t h e c ali b arti o n a n d v ali d ati o n. I n r ef er e n c e t o t h e c at c h m e nt V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0, t h er e is n o d at a b et w e e n b e gi n ni n g 2 0 0 8 t o 2 0 1 0 a n d aft er 2 0 1 0 t h e o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e d at a is n ot e n o u g h r eli a bl e. T h er ef or e t h e p eri o d of 2 0 0 2 -2 0 0 7 w as s el e ct e d f or t h e c ali br ati o n. T a bl e 2 9 – O v er vi e w of c ali br at i o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e D e m er b asi n

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

R el Err ( %)

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - D e m er; H ass elt

V09 DE M136000

255.8

0. 4 5

7. 8

2 0 0 5 -2 0 1 0

1 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - G et e; H al e n

V09 GET152080

800.4

0. 2 8

-6. 6

2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 3

1 6 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H er k, K er mt

V09 HE R163010

274.6

0. 7

-3. 5

2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 3

1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e

V 0 9 H UL 1 4 7 1 5 0 (i n c. V 0 9 L O S 1 4 3 3 0 0)

9 5. 3

0. 4 7

1. 1

2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 0

1 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n g el b e e k; Lu m men

V09 M A N161040

103.1

0. 3 4

-1. 0

2 0 0 5 -2 0 0 9

1 4 4 1 0 1 0 2 - M ott e; Rill a ar

V09 M OT144270

33.6

0. 4 3

6. 0

2 0 0 3 -2 0 1 3

1 4 5 1 0 1 0 2 - V el p; R a ns b er g

V 0 9 V EL 1 4 5 1 0 0

96.8

0. 6

-3. 5

2 0 0 5- 2 0 0 9

1 4 1 - R ots el a ar ; Wi n g e

V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0

8 0. 0 1

0. 4

3. 6

2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 3

1 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w art e B e e k; Lu m men

V09Z W A1 4812 0

96.5

0. 5 6

-0. 5

2 0 0 2 -2 0 0 7

l og NSE

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

T a bl e 3 0 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e D e m er b a si n

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

V ali d ati o n p eri o d

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - D e m er; H ass elt

V09 DE M136000

255.8

0. 1

1. 1

1 9 9 9 -2 0 0 3

1 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - G et e; H al e n

V09 GET152080

800.4

0. 3 2

-0. 8

1 9 6 9 -1 9 9 9

1 6 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H er k, K er mt

V09 HE R163010

274.6

0. 7 3

-5. 7

1 9 9 6 -2 0 0 0

1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e

V 0 9 H UL 1 4 7 1 5 0 (i n c. V 0 9 L O S 1 4 3 3 0 0)

9 5. 3

0. 3

-2. 7

1 9 9 1 -1 9 9 4

1 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n g el b e e k; Lu m men

V09 M A N161040

103.1

0. 6 7

1. 9

1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 2

1 4 4 1 0 1 0 2 - M ott e; Rill a ar

V09 M OT144270

33.6

0. 1 7

1 4. 9

1 9 9 3 -1 9 9 7

1 4 5 1 0 1 0 2 - V el p; R a ns b er g

V 0 9 V EL 1 4 5 1 0 0

96.8

0. 6 1

-0. 0 1

1 9 8 3 -1 9 8 7

1 4 1 - R ots el a ar ; Wi n g e

V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0

64.7

0. 5 3

-5. 3

1 9 9 2 -1 9 9 6

1 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w art e B e e k; Lu m men

V09Z W A1 4812 0

96.5

0. 4 9

-1. 9

1 9 8 7 -1 9 9 2

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

l og NSE

R el Err ( %)

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0

Fi g ur e 8 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( C ali br ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 8 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( C ali br ati o n) .

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 8 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0

Fi g ur e 8 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( C ali br ati o n).

Fi g ur e 8 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( C ali br ati o n).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] o n c at c h m e nt V 09 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 9 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 1 0 N et e b e k k e n 6. 1 0. 1 C o nt e xt T h e N et e c at c h m e nt r e a c h es o v er 1 6 7 3 k m² a n d is l o c at e d i n N ort h -E as t of Fl a n d ers. It c a n b e di vi d e d i nt o t w o c at c h m e nts c orr es p o n di n g t o t h e m ai n ri v ers: Kl ei n e N et e a n d Gr ot e N et e. T h es e t w o ri v ers fl o w t o g et h er i n Li er, w h er e t h e y c oi n ci d e i n t h e B e n e de n -N et e. T his fl o ws t o g et h er wit h t h e Dijl e t o b e c o m e t h e R u p el. T h e N et e b asi n a c c o u nts f or 8 % of t h e t ot al s urf a c e ar e a of t h e S c h el dt b asi n. T h er e ar e 5 g a u gi n g st ati o ns us e d f or c ali br ati o n of t h e r ai nf all -r u n off m o d els, c o v eri n g 6 3 % of t h e N et e c at c h m e nt s urf a c e ar e a ( Fi g ur e 9 1 ).

Fi g ur e 9 1 – C at c h m e nts a n d m e a s ur e p oi nts f or t h e N et e b asi n

6. 1 0. 2 M o d el p erf or m a n c e T a bl e 3 1 a n d T a bl e 3 2 pr es e nt g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e N et e b asi n. Gr a p h s of si m ul ati o ns of t h e c at c h m e nts wit h c o d e V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( b est m o d el p erf or m a n c e) a n d V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e) ar e pr es e nt e d b el o w ( Fi g ur e 9 2 t o Fi g ur e 9 9 ). F or m or e d et a il e d r es ults o n t h e ot h er c at c h m e nts is r ef err e d t o A p p e n di x 2 0 a n d A p p e n di x 2 1 . T h e m o d el p erf or m a n c e is s atisf a ct or y f or t h e c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0, wit h L o g N S E v al u es a b o v e 0. 7 0 a n d R el Err v al u es l o w er t h a n -5. 7 % f or t h e w h ol e si m u ati o n p eri o ds (T a bl e 3 1 a n d T a bl e 3 2 ). T h e w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e w as f o u n d i n t h e c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 . As c a n b e s e e n fr om Fi g ur e 9 8 , o v er esti m ati o n of l o w fl o w w as o c c ur e d d uri n g t h e y e ar 2 0 0 8, r es ulti n g i n a si g nifi c a nt diff er e n c e b et w e e n t h e si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d t ot al fl o w i n t h e v a li br ati o n p eri o d. T h e st atisti c al v al u e of R el Err is -3. 3 % f or t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d a n d t h e n i n cr e as es t o 1 1. 2 % f or t h e v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( T a bl e 3 1 a n d T a bl e 3 2 ). A si mil ar t e n d e n c y of fl o w r at es w as t a k e n pl a c e i n t h e c as es of t h e c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9 a n d V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0 ( A p p e n di x 2 0 ).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

D at a r e m ar ks: A c c or di n g t o t h e g a u gi n g st ati o n 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 – Wi e k e v orst ( V 1 0 WI M 0 82 0 5 0), t h e c ali br ati o n p eri o d o nl y l asts u ntil t h e y e ar 2 0 0 6 d u e t o u n a v ail a bilit y of dis c h ar g e d at a. T a bl e 3 1 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e N et e b a si n

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

S urf. Ar e a ( k m² )

l og NSE

R el Err

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

7 6 1 0 1 0 2 Gr ot e N et e/ G e el Z a m m el

V10 G NE076999

243.5

0. 4 5

-0. 6

2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 3

5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k

V10K NE052000

5 8 4. 7

0. 7 2

-0. 3

2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 3

6 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, P ull e

V10 M OP062140

77.3

0. 4 5

-3. 3

2 0 0 5 -2 0 1 3

8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Wi e k e v orst

V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0

65.7

0.46

1. 5

1 9 9 8 -2 0 0 6

T a bl e 3 2 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e N et e b asi n

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

V ali d ati o n p eri o d

G a u gi n g st ati o n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

7 6 1 0 1 0 2 Gr ot e N et e/ G e el Z a m m el

V10 G NE076999

243.5

0. 5 4

-8. 0

1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 2

5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k

V10K NE052000

584.7

0. 7 2

-5. 7

2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 7

6 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, P ull e

V10 M OP062140

77.3

0. 5 8

1 1. 2

1 9 9 8 -2 0 0 2

8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Wi e k e v orst

V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0

65.7

0. 3 4

6. 3

1 9 9 5- 1 9 9 9

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

l og NSE

R el Err

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0

Fi g ur e 9 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 9 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( C ali br ati o n) .

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 9 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( b l u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0

Fi g ur e 9 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( C ali br ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 9 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( C ali br ati o n) .

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9 8 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 9 9 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

6. 1 1 M e us e 6. 1 1. 1 C o nt e xt T h er e ar e 8 g a u g e d st ati o ns us e d f or t h e c ali br ati o n of t h e r ai nf all -r u n off m o d els. T h e fi v e c a li br at e d s u b c at c h m e nts u pstr e a m Vis é w er e: t h e S a m br e, t h e H a ut e M e us e, t h e O urt h e, t h e H o y o u x a n d t h e M e h ai g n e. T hr e e a d diti o n al s m all c at c h m e nts d o w nstr e a m Vis é i n cl u di n g t h e M e h ai g n e, T h e B er wij n ( B er wi n n e), t h e J e k er ( G e er) w er e n e e d e d f or t h e si m ul atio n of t h e sit u ati o n o n t h e Al b ert c a n al a n d t h e C a m pi n e c a n al. T h e l o c ati o ns of t h e g a u g e d st ati o ns a n d s u b c at c h m e nts ar e s h o w n i n Fi g ur e 3 . 6. 1 1. 2 M o d el p erf or m a n c e T a bl e 3 3 a n d T a bl e 3 4 pr es e nt g e n er al p erf or m a n c e st atisti cs f or t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts of t h e M e us e b asi n. Gr a p hs of si m ul ati o ns of t h e c at c h m e nts wit h c o d e F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( b est m o d el p erf or m a n c e) a n d W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( w orst m o d el p erf or m a n c e) ar e pr es e nt e d b el o w ( Fi g ur e 1 0 4 t o Fi g ur e 1 0 7 ). F or m or e d et ail e d res ults o n t h e ot h er c at c h m e nts is r eff er e d t o A p p e n di x 2 2 a n d A p p e n di x 2 3 . Fi g ur e 1 0 0 a n d Fi g ur e 1 0 2 s h o w a v er y g o o d m at c h b e t w e e n t h e si m ul at e d a n d m e as ur e d v al u es of dis c h ar g e f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d at t h e o utl et of t h e c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2. T his is gi v e n b y t h e st atisti c al v al u es of L o g N S E a b o v e 0. 7 5 a n d R el Err b el o w 0. 2 % (T a bl e 3 3 a n d T a bl e 3 4 ). Si mil ar fl o w b e h a vi o ur c o ul d b e f o u n d at t h e c at c h m e nts wit h c o d e W 1 1 M A A P R O F , W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5 , a n d W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0 ( A p p e n di x 2 2). Alt h o u g h dis c h ar g e f or c at c h m e nt W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9 w as o v er esti m at e d d uri n g t h e r e c essi o n e v e n ts of t h e y e ars 2 0 1 0 a n d 2 0 1 1, t h e m o d el i n g e n er al r e pr es e nt e d w ell b ot h t h e ti mi n g a n d m a g nit u d e of fl o w f or t h e e ntir e si m ul ati o n p eri o ds (A p p e n di x 2 2). I n a d e q u at e m o d el p erf or m a n c e w as f o u n d at t h e c at c h m e nts W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0 a n d W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 . T h e h y dr o gr a p hs fr o m Fi g ur e 1 0 4 t o Fi g ur e 1 0 7 s h o w t h at t h e m o d el r e pr es e nt e d w ell t h e t ot al fl o w of t h e c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0. H o w e v e r, l o w fl o w w as u n d er esti m at e d d uri n g t h e p eri o ds fr o m 2 0 0 1-2 0 0 6 a n d 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 3. T h e m o d el p erf or m a n c e of t h e c at c h m e nt W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0 c o ul d b e a c c e pt e d, alt h o u g h t ot al fl o w w as o v er esti m at e d fr o m 2 0 0 5 -2 0 1 1 ( A p p e n di x 2 2). T h e v al u es of R el Err ar o u n d 0. 4 4 i n di c at e t h at l o w fl o w w as pr e di ct e d w ell f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d at i o n p eri o d. A c c or di n g t o t h e c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0 , t h e m o d el p erf or m e d n ot w ell i n si m ul ati n g hi g h fl o w a n d l o w fl o w f or b ot h t h e c ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n p eri o d (A p p e n di x 2 2 ). T his is pr es u m a bl y d u e t o err o n e o us m e as ur e d d at a d uri n g t h e si m ul ati o n p er i o ds. Si mil ar r es ults w er e h a p p e n e d w h e n a p pl yi n g N A M m o d el t o pr e di ct fl o w of t his c at c h m e nt. D at a r e m ar ks: T h e c at c h m e nt W 1 1 W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5 d o es n ot h a v e a v ail a bl e m e as ur e d d at a b ef or e t h e y e ar 2 0 0 0. T h er ef or e, t h e si m ul ati o n p eri o d w as st art e d fr o m 2 0 0 1. T h e c at c h m e nts F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 a n d W 1 1 M A A P R O F d o n ot h a v e a v ail a bl e m e as ur e d d at a b ef or e 2 0 0 7. T h er ef or e, t h e si m ul ati o n p eri o d w as s el e ct e d fr o m 2 0 0 7.

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T a bl e 3 3 – O v er vi e w of c ali br ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e M e us e b asi n

St ati o n / Ri v er

C at c h m e nt code

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

L og NSE

R el Err

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

M ar c hi n/ H o y o u x

W11 H OY5990

242

-0. 2

4. 9

2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3

W a nz e/ M e h ai g n e

W11 ME H5820

356

0. 4 6

9. 8

2 0 0 1 -2 0 0 8

Pr of o n d e vill e/ M e us e

W 11 M A AP R OF

12586

0. 6 2

-1. 6

2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 2

C h o oz/ M e us e

F1 1 M AA87 02

10120

0. 7 5

0. 1

2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 3

A n gl e ur 2 bis/ O urt h e ( c al c ul at e d)

W11 O UR5805

3612

0. 6

-0. 4

2 0 0 3 -2 0 1 2

S alzi n n e R o n et/ S a m br e

W11S A M7319

2669

0. 6 1

-0. 7

2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 2

M o eli n g e n

W11 BE R551010

128

0. 5 8

-0. 5

2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 4

Kanne

W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0

465.5

-6. 9

2 3. 9

2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3

T a bl e 3 4 – O v er vi e w of v ali d ati o n r es ults f or g a u g e d c at c h m e nts o n t h e M e us e b asi n

C at c h m e nt c o d e

M ar c hi n/ H o y o u x

W11 H OY5990

242

-0. 1 8

1. 4

2 0 0 1 -2 0 1 3

W a nz e/ M e h ai g n e

W 11 ME H5820

356

0. 4 4

1 2. 7

2 0 0 1 -2 0 1 1

Pr of o n d e vill e/ M e us e

W 11 M A AP R OF

12586

0. 5 9

5. 2

2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 7

C h o oz/ M e us e

F11 M A A8702

10120

0. 7 6

0. 2

2 0 0 3 -2 0 1 3

A n gl e ur 2 bis/ O urt h e ( c al c ul at e d)

W11 O UR5805

3612

0. 6 4

0. 9

2 0 0 1 -2 0 0 6

S alzi n n e R o n et/ S a m br e

W11S A M7319

2669

0. 5 5

6.8

2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 3

M o el i n g e n

W11 BE R551010

128

0. 5 7

2. 9

1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 4

Kanne

W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0

465.5

-6. 1

1 9. 6

1 9 9 3 -2 0 1 3

S urf. Ar e a ( k m²)

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

L og NSE

R el Err

C ali br ati o n p eri o d

St ati o n / Ri v er

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2

Fi g ur e 1 0 0 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( C ali br ati o n) .

Fi g u r e 1 0 1 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e di s c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 0 2 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( V ali d ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 1 0 3 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e di s c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( V ali d ati o n p eri o d).

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0

Fi g ur e 1 0 4 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( C ali br ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 1 0 5 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e di s c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d).

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 0 6 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³ /s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( V ali d ati o n) .

Fi g ur e 1 0 7 – M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e di s c h ar g e [ m³ ] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( vali d ati o n p eri o d)

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C o n c l usi o ns a n d r e c o m m e n d ati o ns

T h e i m p a cts of h u m a n a cti viti es o n w at er r es o ur c es o c c ur p artl y t hr o u g h aff e ct r e gi o n al h y dr ol o gi c al b al a n c e b y alt er r u n off, s oil m oist ur e st or a g e, et al., 2 0 0 2). T h es e alt er ati o ns i n t ur n c a n r es ults i n fl o o d, dr a u g ht, c o ns e q u e n c e, t h er e is a n e e d t o a d dr ess t h es e iss u es i n or d er t o r e d u c e r es o ur c es at c at c h m e nt s c al e.

cli m at e c h a n g es. T h os e c h a n g es str e a m fl o w, a q uif er l e v el s ( Y or k a n d w at er s u p pl y str ess es. B y p ossi bl e t hr e ats p os e d o n w at er

T h e w at er b al a n c e m o d el of t h e S c h el dt b asi n will b e us e d i n or d er t o p erf or m l o w fl o w f or e c asts a n d c al c ul at e cli m at e c h a n g e s c e n ari os. T h e g o al of t his s u bt as k of t h e pr oj e ct ‘ M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n’, is t o d efi n e t h e m ost a p pr o pri at e h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or t h e w at er b al a n c e m o d el of t h e S c h el dt b asi n i n or d er t o m e et t his pr er e q uisit e. T h er ef or e, diff er e nt h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or e a c h of t h e s u b c at c h m e nts i n t h e st u d y ar e a ar e s et u p a n d e v al u at e d o n t h ei r a p pr o pri at e n ess f or l o w fl o w f or e c asti n g a n d cli m at e c h a n g e s c e n ari os. T h e r e g ar d e d m o d els ar e N A M ( © D HI), P D M ( ©I n n o v yz e), V H M ( © Will e ms, P.) a n d W E T S P A ( © V U B). Aft er e v al u ati o n of e a c h of t h es e h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els, t h e m ost a p pr o pri at e m o d el f or e a c h c at c h m e nt c a n b e us e d f or t h e p arti c ul ar a p pli c ati o n. T his s u b r e p ort c o v ers t h e c ali br ati o n a n d e v al u at i o n of W E T S P A. T his s p ati all y distri b ut e d m o d el c al c ul at es a dis c h ar g e ti m e s eri es b as e d o n t h e hist ori c al r ai nf all, e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n ti m e s eri es, t o p o gr a p h y m a p, l a n d us e m a p, a n d s oil m a p. As s u c h, t h e s i m ul at e d dis c h ar g e f or t h e s u b c at c h m e nts i n t h e w at er b al a n c e m o d el c a n t h e n b e us e d t o ass ess t h e w at er b al a n c e i n t h e S c h el dt a n d t h e M e us e b asi n f or a l o n g t er m p eri o d. T h e W E T S P A m o d el w as s et u p f or 4 5 s u b c at c h m e nts o f t h e S c h el d e b asi n a n d 1 1 s u b c at c h m e nts of t h e M e us e b asi n i n or d er t o ass ess t h e h y dr ol o g y i n t h es e ar e as. A ut o m ati c c ali br ati o n w as p erf or m e d b y o pti miz ati o n, usi n g a g e n eti c al g orit h m, o n 5 6 g a u g e d s u b c at c h m e nts. D uri n g t h e o pti miz a ti o n r o uti n e t h e b est p ar a m et er s et is s el e ct e d f or e a c h c at c h m e nt b as e d o n 2 crit eri a: ( 1) a bs ol ut e err or o n c u m ul at e d t ot al fl o w at e a c h ti m e st e p, a n d ( 2) l o g arit h mi c N as h-S ut cliff effi ci e n c y. T h e first crit eri o n ai ms t o m o d el t h e gl o b al fl o w p att er n, t h e l att er f o c us es m ai nl y o n t h e l o w fl o ws . T h e c urr e nt d at a i. e. cli m at e d at a, t o p o gr a p h y, l a n d us e a n d s oil m a p w er e us e d as i n p ut d at a f or t h e m o d el s et u p. T h e m o d el h as b e e n c ali br at e d a n d v ali d at e d o n a d ail y ti m e st e p usi n g m e as ur e d ri v er fl o w d at a at t h e o utl et of t h e g a u g e d c at c h m e nts. I n g e n er al, t h e W E T S P A m o d el p erf or m e d s atisf a ct oril y i n si m ul ati n g d ail y l o w fl o w i n c at c h m e nts of t h e S c h el dt a n d M e us e b asi n. T h es e a c hi e v e d r es ults c o ul d s er v e as r eli a bl e b asis f or pr e di cti n g w at er a v ail a bilit y i n t h e c o nt e xt of f u t ur e cli m at e c h a n g e. I n t his st u d y, t h e d ef a ult s oil p ar a m et ers a p pli e d i nt o t h e m o d el ar e i nt er p ol at e d fr o m t h e lit er at ur e a n d us e d o v er t h e e ntir e c at c h m e nt. D u e t o t h e v ast v ari ati o n r a n g e, p ar a m et ers s u c h as h y dr a uli c c o n d u cti vit y , s oil p or osit y, r o u g h n ess c o effi ci e nt, et c. m a y c h a n g e gr e atl y w h e n a p pl yi n g t h e m o d el t o a n ot h er pl a c e wit h a diff er e nt e n vir o n m e nt. T his bri n gs diffi c ulti es i n m o d el p ar a m et eriz ati o n i n c ali br ati o n of c at c h m e nts a n d i nfl u e n c e t h e a c c ur a c y of t h e m o d el res ults i n g e n er al. F or c at c h m e nts w hi c h h a v e n o si mil ar c o n diti o ns of t o p o gr a p h y, l a n d us e, a n d s oil pr o p erti es, it is r e c o m m e n d e d t o a n al yz e s oil pr o p erti es i n d et ail b ef or e i m pl e m e nti n g t h e p ar a m et ers i nt o t h e m o d el t o g et b ett er r es ults of t h e m o d el si mul ati o n.

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

R ef er e n c es

Br a u w e ns, A., S o hi er, C., D e gr, A. , 2 0 1 1. H y dr ol o gi c al r es p o ns e t o cli m at e c h a n g e i n t h e L ess e a n d t h e V es dr e c at c h m e nts: c o ntri b uti o n of a p h ysi c all y b as e d m o d el ( W all o ni a, B el gi u m). H y dr ol o g y a n d E art h s yst e m s ci e n c es. C O RI N E ( C o or di n ati o n of I nf or m ati o n o n t h e E n vir o n m e nt). m a ps/ d at a/ c ori n e -l a n d-c o v er -2 0 0 6 -r ast er- 2

htt p:// w w w. e e a. e ur o p a. e u/ d at a -a n d -

D e B o e c k K., P er eir a F., V a n E er d e n br u g h K., M ost a ert F. , 2 0 1 1. Mo d ell eri n g v a n w at er b es c hi k b a ar h ei d e n all o c ati estr at e gi e ë n: D e elr a p p ort 3 - A n al ys e v a n h et h ui di g e w at er a a n b o d. V ersi e 2 _ 1. W L R a p p ort e n, 7 2 4 _ 0 4. W at er b o u w k u n di g L a b or at ori u m: A nt w er p e n, B el gi ë. E S D A C ( E ur o p e a n S oil D at a C e ntr e). htt p:// e u s oil s.jr c. e c. e ur o p a. e u/ c o nt e nt/t o p s oil -p h y si c al -pr o p erti e s e ur o p e -b a s e d -l u c a s-t o p s oil-d at a G M E S R D A ( E ur o p e a n E n vir o n m e nt A g e n c y). htt p:// w w w. e e a. e ur o p a. e u/ d at a -a n d -m a ps/ d at a/ e u -d e m #t a b a d diti o n al -i nf or m ati o n I S C (I nt er n ati o n al e S c h el d e c o m misi e), 2 0 0 5. S c h el dt i nt er n ati o n al ri v er b asin di stri ct, r o of r e p ort, w w w.s c al dit. or g . Kr a us e P., B o yl e D. P., B äs e F. , 2 0 0 5. C o m p aris o n of diff er e nt effi ci e n c y crit eri a f or h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el ass ess m e nt, A d v a n c es i n G e os ci e n c es. M ar o y, E.; Mi c hi el s e n, S.; V el ez, C.; P er eir a, F.; N oss e nt, J.; M ost a ert, F. ( 2 0 2 1). M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n: S u b r e p ort 4 -2 – D e v el o pi n g a r ai nf all -r u n off m o d el of t h e M e us e – N A M M e us e. V ersi o n 1. 1. F H R R e p orts, 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -2. Fl a n d ers H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h: A nt w er p , B el gi u m. N as h, J. E. a n d S ut cliff e, J. V. , 1 9 7 0. Ri v er fl o w f or e c asti n g t hr o u g h c o n c e pt u al m o d els, P art I - A dis c ussi o n of pri n ci pl es, J. H y dr ol., 1 0, 2 8 2 – 2 9 0. S al v a d or e, E., Br o n d er s, J., B at el a a n, O. , 2 0 1 2. E n h a n c e d m od el fl e xi bilit y a n d c ou pli n g o p p ort u niti es: t h e W et S p a m o d el c as e. i E M Ss 2 0 1 2, L ei pzi g, G er m a n y, 0 1 -0 5/ 0 7/ 2 0 1 2. S al v a d or e, E., N os s e nt, J., P er eir a, F., M ost a ert, T. ( 2 0 2 1). Eff e ct of cli m at e c h a n g e o n t h e h y dr ol o gi c al r e gi m e of n a vi g a bl e w at er c o urs es i n B el gi u m: S u b r e p ort 8 – T h e W et S p a m o d el f or t h e i Fr a m e w or k. V ersi o n 0. 1. F H R R e p orts, 0 0 _ 1 3 0 _ 9. Fl a n d ers H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h: A nt w er p, B el gi u m. Tr a n, Q. Will e ms, P.; P er eir a, F.; N oss e nt J; M ost a ert, F. ( 2 0 2 1). Eff e ct of cli m at e c h a n g e o n t h e h y dr ol o gi c al r egi m e of n a vi g a bl e w at er c o urs es i n B el gi u m: S u b r e p ort 7 – D e v el o p m e nt of a fr a m e w or k f or fl e xi bl e h y dr ol o gi c al m o d elli n g. V ersi o n 1. 1. F H R R e p orts, 0 0 _ 1 3 0 _ 7. Fl a n d ers H y dr a uli cs R es e ar c h: A nt w er p, B el gi u m. Tr a n, Q. Will e ms, P.; P er eir a, F.; N oss e nt J; M ost a ert, F. ( 2 0 2 1). Eff e ct of cli m at e c h a n g e o n t h e h y dr ol o gi c al r e gi m e of n a vi g a bl e w at er c o urs es i n B el gi u m: S u b r e p ort 8 – I m pl e m e nt ati o n a n d t esti n g of a fr a m e w or k f or fl e xi bl e h y dr ol o gi c al m o d elli n g. V ersi o n 1. 1. F H R R e p orts, 0 0 _ 1 3 0 _ 8. Fl a n d ers H y dra uli cs R es e ar c h: A nt w e r p, B el gi u m.

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

V a nst e e n ki st e, T., P er eir a, F., Will e m s, P., M ost a ert, F. , 2 0 1 1. Eff e ct of cli m at e c h a n g e o n t h e h y dr ol o gi c al r e gi m e of n a vi g a bl e w at er c o urs es i n B el gi u m: S u br e p ort 2 – Cli m at e c h a n g e i m p a ct a n al ysis b y c o n c e pt u al m o d el s. W L R a p p ort e n, pr oj e ct 7 0 6 _ 1 8, W at er b o u w k u n di g L a b or at ori u m & K U L e u v e n, D e c e m b er 2 0 1 1, 5 7 p. V N S C C o m m u ni c ati e , 2 0 1 4: Vr a a g b a a k v o or all es o p, r o n d e n i n d e S c h el d e. Y or k J. P., P er s o n, M., G ut o w s ki, W.J., Wi nt er T. C. , 2 0 0 2. P utti n g a q uif ers i nt o at m os ph eri c si m ul ati o n m o d el s: a n e x a m pl e fr o m fr o m t h e Mill Cr e e k W at ers h e d, n ort h -e ast er n K a ns as. A d v a n c es i n W at er R es o ur c es, 2 5, 2 2 1 -2 3 8.

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1

C at c h m e nt

List of o pti miz e d p ar a m et ers f or g a u g e d c at ch m e nts

Ar e a ( m ²)

Kep

Kss

G_ max

Kru m

P _ max

V01 H A N488180

78558940

1. 8 2

1 9 8. 6 8

0. 0 1 0

0. 5

1 1 8. 7 3

2 8 6. 4 1

3. 0 7

1 8 6. 2 5

V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9

393007000

1. 1 5

1 5 6. 6 7

0. 0 0 4 5

3. 7 6

1 0 9. 2 8

2 8 5. 3 9

3. 9 5

1 9 6. 4 9

V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0

63423128

1. 0 4

2 5. 2 9

0. 0 0 1

0. 7 6

3. 6 0

2 7 8. 3 8

1 3. 9 2

1 7 0. 1 1

V01KE M492060

73892930

1. 4 4

1 4 6. 2

0. 0 3 0

1. 5 1

9 2. 0 3

8 1. 1 4

4. 3 0

1 5 6. 2 0

V01 M AR496120

76136621

3. 1 5

2 9. 9 6

0. 0 6 0

1. 2 0

6 8. 5 1

5 8 0. 9

8. 4 0

4 8 0. 6 0

V01P OP491030

84868207

2. 8 4

1 0 3. 2 6

0. 0 8 0

2. 1 5

1 5 7. 9

4 4 9 9. 0 0

0. 1 0

2 4 4. 7

V 0 1SS V 4 9 9 1 4 0

16095000

1. 7 6

1 4 2. 3 2

0. 0 0 1

0. 7 4

4 1 8. 7

5 9 4. 3

1 1. 5 4

3 9 6. 8

V02E DE442120

45489177

1. 8 0

2 2 3. 4 9

0 . 0 03

2. 5 5

1 7 5. 1 2

2 0 1. 9 7

3. 1 3

3 2 4. 2 0

V02 HER426010

77272201

1. 3 8

2 1 0. 9 9

0. 0 0 1

0. 9 6

8 8. 4 3

2 4 6. 1

3. 7 1

2 4 4. 7 0

V02KER422030

62718738

1. 7 7

4 7. 4 7

0. 0 0 1

1. 6 8

1 8 2. 8 2

2 8 1. 4 9

0. 9 6

5 9 0. 1 0

V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0

63980423

1. 5 0

2 4 5. 2 8

0. 0 0 1

1. 1 2

1 9 1. 2

8 1 2. 1

4. 8 6

4 6 8. 7 0

V03P OE44600 0

106836849

2. 4 0

2 9 3. 9 2

0. 0 1 0

7. 3 2

1 5 4. 8 5

3 9 0. 9

2. 6 0

7 9. 6 2

V 0 4 M OL 0 3 6 1 1 0

32561957

1. 5 6

9 5. 4 6

0. 0 0 2

0. 1 0

6 3. 4 8

2 8 1. 5 4

3. 9 2

4 3 8. 6 1

V04 M O M037100

67301328

1. 7 6

2 7. 6

0. 0 0 3

0. 7 2

4 3. 2 6

3 7 7. 4 3

3. 9 2

4 3 8. 6 1

2981779554

1. 5 5

8 0. 2 5

0. 0 1 0

2. 1 9

157

4 4 2. 1 0

3. 4 0

1 9 6. 5 0

V05 HE U403210

91912331

2. 2 0

1 0 1. 9 6

0. 0 1 0

4. 8 1

7 6 2. 6 4

6 9 0. 8 5

1. 1 4

1 2 6 2. 0 0

V05 M A N401230

258441818

1. 2 5

1 0 4. 8 1

0. 0 1 0

2. 6 1

1 9 3. 6 2

3 0 6. 5 4

3. 0 0

1 2 2. 8 6

F0 6 B OS 32 599 9

5217586196

1. 6 0

6 9. 8 7

0. 0 1 0

0. 7 9

1 0 7. 9

3 8 5. 4 6

3. 5 7

5 3 8. 3 0

V06 M A A347160

48678191

1. 5 5

6 1. 9 5

0. 0 0 3

3. 2 1

8 3. 0 8

2 3 1. 8 0

9. 6 6

1 5 6. 9 2

V06Z W A342190

112117540

1. 6 0

5 6. 2 3

0. 0 1 0

1. 7 2

8 7. 9 4

6 4 0. 4 1

6. 9 6

2 0 1. 2 0

W 0 6 R H OL 5 4 1 0 0

161928446

2. 9 5

9 7. 4

0. 0 1 0

2. 0 0

1 6 3. 6

3 9 9. 5 3

6. 1 7

8 7. 1 3

V 0 7 B EL 2 8 5 0 7 0

88641710

1. 3 9

2 0. 7 6

0. 0 0 1

0. 7 9

7 1. 0 8

3 0 6. 1 4

1 3. 0 1

4 7 0. 4 9

V07 M AR289015

173908791

1 . 60

6 6. 9 9

0. 0 0 1

1. 1 9

1 0 2. 7 8

5 3 6. 8 8

4. 8 5

6 0 4. 5 0

V07 M OE282100

46367171

1. 8 3

6 7. 9 4

0. 0 1 0

1. 2 2

1 3 4. 1 1

3 3 5. 9 5

2 2. 5 7

2 6 3. 3 1

V07 M O G288020

23093628

1. 7 7

4 9. 2 7

0. 0 0 1

1. 2 3

1 8 5. 2 3

3 0 0. 0 4

2 5. 9 4

6 4 4. 0 1

W 0 7 D E NL E S 9 9 9

511840662

1. 3 0

100.00

0. 0 0 3

1. 1 3

50.00

300.00

7. 2 0

350.00

V08B AR111370

70079800

1. 1 4

5 0. 5 9

0. 0 0 3

5. 0 0

7 0. 5 2

2 3 7. 6 2

4. 0 0

7 1. 6 1

F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C at c h m e nt

Ar e a ( m ²)

Kep

Kss

G_ max

Kru m

P _ max

V 0 8 DIJ 0 9 3 4 0 0

861413000

1. 2 9

8. 9 1

0. 0 0 1

0. 9 0

1 6 3. 4 7

4 4 4. 7 9

6. 8 2

2 0 6. 1 5

V08Z U U233100

64771005

1. 8 1

2 0. 3 3

0. 0 0 2

0. 7 0

1 7 7. 1 8

3 1 8. 5 9

2 0. 7 3

1 5 6. 2 7

W08S A M R O N000

134097000

1. 7 3

1. 2 0

0. 0 0 1

1. 7 0

2 4 9. 6 6

6 4 6. 5 0

5. 1 5

2 0 9. 3 7

W 0 8 S E NL 5 6 0 1 0

70364773

1. 2 6

1 8 3. 8

0. 0 0 2

2. 6 0

1 2 4. 4

2 8 4. 2 9

8. 7 9

2 6 8. 3 0

W08SE NT U B030

215911078

2. 1 2

5 2. 5 2

0. 0 1 0

0. 7 0

1 1 6. 5 5

4 2 6. 1 4

6. 1 3

1 6 3. 9 1

V09 DE M136000

255882000

1. 8 6

8 1. 9 5

0. 0 1 0

1. 7 9

1 4 0. 9 0

3 0 0. 9 0

5. 2 3

1 6 3. 8 2

V09 GET152080

800395376

0. 1 5

4 2. 5 0

0. 0 1 0

0. 9 7

1 8 4. 8 2

6 2 5. 1 9

9. 0 9

5 2 1. 8 1

V09 HER163010

274602221

1. 5 0

2 4. 9 9

0. 0 0 2

0. 9 9

1 6 6. 3 3

4 8 3. 1 3

5. 4 3

2 2 6. 8 6

V 0 9 H UL 1 4 7 1 5 0

80130245

0. 8 2

8 0. 5 1

0. 0 0 2

0. 9 9

1 6 6. 3 3

4 8 3. 1 3

5. 4 3

2 2 6. 8 6

V09 M A N161040

103081000

1. 9 2

1 3. 0 0

0. 0 1 0

0. 9 6

8 5. 1 4

5 6 0. 4 3

0. 4 8

3 9. 1 9

V0 9 M OT144270

33590217

1. 5 6

2. 2 8

0. 0 1 0

2. 8 4

2 9. 8 7

2 6 9. 2 7

2. 7 8

4 5. 3 1

V 0 9 V EL 1 4 5 1 0 0

96801128

1. 5 8

1 8. 5 6

0. 0 0 3

2. 0 5

1 3 3. 9 0

2 2 8. 7 4

7. 9 0

3 0 4. 1 1

V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0

64739169

1. 9 5

1 7. 5 5

0. 0 0 2

0. 8 0

1 6 3. 6 5

2 5 2. 3 4

3. 4 4

1 2 6. 4 8

V09Z W A1 48120

96514800

1. 8 5

3 0. 9 3

0. 0 1 0

0. 6 3

1 5 2. 7 7

4 8 9. 9 5

1. 0 9

6 8. 6 5

V10 G NE076999

359885327

1. 3 0

1 9. 2 8

0. 0 0 3

2. 3 2

1 5 9. 7 5

4 7 0. 2

1. 3 5

1 2 8. 7 0

V10K NE052000

584669408

1. 4 5

1 1 3. 7 1

0. 0 1 0

2. 8 6

8 7. 2 2

3 0 4. 7 7

2. 0 0

4 0. 5 7

V10 M OP062140

77300000

2. 3 2

1 2 7. 9 8

0. 0 0 4

2. 8 7

6 0. 3 7

4 3 4. 1 8

3. 9 6

1 7 1. 1 8

V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0

65400000

2. 8 1

1 4 0. 6 6

0. 0 2 0

9. 9 4

1 6 9. 1 8

5 6 5. 8 4

0. 9 8

3 1 1. 2 3

W11 H OY5990

242000000

1. 8 0 9

1 1. 8 4 7

0. 0 0 2

1. 8 8 4

2 0 4. 8 9

5 0 2. 0 3

8. 9 5

4 1 3. 3 7

W11 ME H5820

356000000

2. 4 0

5 2. 6 2

0. 0 1 0

2. 0 4 5

2 7 0. 8 8

8 3 3. 2 3

3. 0 0

6 0 7. 3 3

W 1 1 M A A P OF

12586000000

0. 6 9

4 6. 6 7

0. 0 7 0

0. 6 8

2 8 3. 1 1

3 4 4. 6 9

2. 7 7

5 3. 7 7

F11 M A A8702

10120000000

1. 4 0

1 1 3. 7 0

0. 0 1 0

2. 8 0

1 5 0. 4 8

2 6 3. 2 7

2. 7 8

7 4. 7 1

W11 O UR5805

3612000000

1. 8 9

8 3. 4 0

0. 0 1 0

3. 0 0

7 3. 0 5

2 9 5. 6 0

4. 1 9

2 2 6. 7 0

W11S A M7319

26996000000

2. 1 8

6 4. 1 5

0. 0 1 0

2. 3 0

1 2 2. 2 0

5 0 9. 4 0

2. 5 3

116.00

W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0

465500000

1. 3 6

4 2. 1 9

0. 0 0 4

2. 0 0

1 1 9. 7 0

2 7 4. 5

3. 0 0

1 0 2 7. 1 0

W11BER551010

128000000

1. 9 2

2 8. 3 8

0. 0 1 0

2. 4 7

9 2. 6 6

4 5 2. 2 7

7. 3 8

2 3 6. 4 1

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 2

Fi n al v ersi o n

IJz er C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 " (IJz er)

9. 2. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 (IJz er)

Fi g ur e 2: A n n u al c u m ul at e d dis c h ar g e (r e d) a n d s c al e d pr e ci pit ati o n ( bl u e) a c c or di n g t o r u n off r ati o (t ot al Q/t ot al P) a n d c u m ul ati v e p ot e nti al e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n ( gr e e n) o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 (IJz er)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V01 H A N488180

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

78600000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 4

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 9

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 8 2), (' Ki', 1 9 8. 6 8), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 5), (' g 0', 1 1 8. 7 3), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 6. 4 1), (' K _r u n', 3. 0 7), (' P _ m a x', 1 8 6. 2 5)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 6 %

- 5. 9 %

3. 8 %

0. 6 6 9

0. 2 3 5

0. 6 6 1

N S _l o g

0. 6 7

0. 6 3

0. 3 1

N S _r el

0. 5 6 9

0. 9 2 3

- 0. 1 3 8

K GE

0. 7 7 8

0. 6 1 4

0. 6

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 4 - 2 0 0 9)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

2. 5 %

- 1 0. 0 %

5. 1 %

0. 6 3 1

0. 2 1 4

0. 6 2 3

N S _l o g

0. 6 4 1

0. 6 0 5

0. 3 5

N S _r el

0. 5 6 5

0. 8 4 7

0. 1 7 2

K GE

0. 7 4 4

0. 6 1 1

0. 6 1 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0, st ati o n 4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0, st ati o n 4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0, st ati o n 4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0, st ati o n 4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0, st ati o n 4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0, st ati o n 4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0, st ati o n 4 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Kr e k el b e e k; K ort e m ar k

9. 2. 2

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9 " (IJz er)

9. 2. 2. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9 (IJz er) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

393000000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 7

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 1 0

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 1 5), (' Ki', 1 5 6. 6 7), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 3. 7 6), (' g 0', 1 0 9. 2 8), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 5. 3 9), (' K _r u n', 3. 9 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 9 6. 4 9)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 6)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 4. 0 %

2 4. 9 %

- 2 6. 1 %

0. 3 2 8

- 1. 9 1 7

0. 5 1

N S _l o g

0. 3 9 8

0. 1 3 8

0. 3 8 6

N S _r el

- 0. 2 3

- 0. 1 5 6

- 0. 2 2

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A10

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

K GE

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

0. 6 4 8

- 0. 1 3 3

0. 5 3 8

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 4. 8 %

5 8. 3 %

- 3 7. 6 %

0. 2 3 2

- 0. 9 9 2

0. 0 9 4

N S _l o g

0. 0 1 1

- 1. 5 6 6

0. 1

N S _r el

- 1. 2 2 5

- 0. 1 2 9

- 1. 6 4 6

K GE

0. 5 5 9

- 0. 2 9 7

0. 0 2 6

9. 2. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9, st ati o n 4 6 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Ijz er; H ari n g e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A11

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9, st ati o n 4 6 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Ijz er; H ari n g e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9, st ati o n 4 6 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Ijz er; H ari n g e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A12

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9, st ati o n 4 6 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Ijz er; H ari n g e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9, st ati o n 4 6 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Ijz er; H ari n g e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A13

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 3

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0 " (IJz er)

9. 2. 3. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0 (IJz er)

9. 2. 3. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e Fi n al r e p ort

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1 W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A14

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

63400000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 0

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 4

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 0 4), (' Ki', 2 5. 2 9), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 7 6), (' g 0', 3. 6), (' g _ m a x', 2 7 8. 3 8), (' K _r u n', 1 3. 9 2), (' P _ m a x', 1 7 0. 1 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 9 - 2 0 0 4)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 2. 4 %

2 9. 7 %

- 1 7. 5 %

0. 4 8 4

- 1. 3 1 5

0. 6 1 1

N S _l o g

0. 5 3 7

0. 1 2 9

0. 5 7 3

N S _r el

- 0. 8 3 7

- 4. 5 5 6

0. 6 0 1

K GE

0. 7 1 2

0. 0 2 1

0. 7 6

T a bl e 2: G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 4)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 4 %

- 2. 7 %

- 1 6. 7 %

0. 4 4 1

0. 5 1 9

0. 3 9 8

N S _l o g

0. 5 9 2

0. 5 2 5

0. 4 0 8

N S _r el

0. 0 2 2

- 1. 0 6 3

0. 1 6 3

K GE

0. 7 1 6

0. 7 4 1

0. 6 7 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A15

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 3. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0, st ati o n 4 9 5 1 0 1 0 2 - I e p erl e e; Z ui ds c h ot e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0, st ati o n 4 9 5 1 0 1 0 2 - I e p erl e e; Z ui ds c h ot e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A16

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0, st ati o n 4 9 5 1 0 1 0 2 - I e p erl e e; Z ui ds c h ot e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0, st ati o n 4 9 5 1 0 1 0 2 - I e p erl e e; Z ui ds c h ot e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A17

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0, st ati o n 4 9 5 1 0 1 0 2 - I e p erl e e; Z ui ds c h ot e

9. 2. 4

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0 " (IJz er)

9. 2. 4. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0 (IJz er) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A18

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 4. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V01KE M492060

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

73900000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 6

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 8

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 4 4), (' Ki', 1 4 6. 2), (' K g', 0. 0 3), (' Kss', 1. 5 1), (' g 0', 9 2. 0 3), (' g _ m a x', 8 1. 1 4), (' K _r u n', 4. 3), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 6. 2)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 6. 6 %

- 4 2. 3 %

3. 1 %

0. 2 3 8

- 0. 1 5 3

0. 1 7 6

N S _l o g

0. 3 5 6

0. 0 3 9

- 0. 1 0 7

N S _r el

- 3 4. 1 8 9

- 5. 8 5 9

- 8. 0 1 2

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A19

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

K GE

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

0. 3 5 2

- 0. 3 8 3

0. 2 1 4

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 6 - 2 0 0 8)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 2. 6 %

- 3 6. 9 %

8. 8 %

0. 4 1 9

0. 1 3 1

0. 3 6 9

N S _l o g

0. 4 7

0. 2 3 9

0. 1 0 9

N S _r el

- 0. 7 4 7

- 0. 1 6 9

- 1. 3 3 1

K GE

0. 4 3 6

0. 2 9 4

0. 2 9

9. 2. 4. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0, st ati o n 4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A20

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0, st ati o n 4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0, st ati o n 4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A21

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0, st ati o n 4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0, st ati o n 4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 - K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A22

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0, st ati o n 4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 - K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0, st ati o n 4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 - K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A23

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 0: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0, st ati o n 4 9 2 7 0 1 0 2 - K e m m el b e e k; B o ezi n g e

9. 2. 5

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0 " (IJz er)

9. 2. 5. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0 (IJz er) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A24

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 5. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V01 M AR496120

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

76100000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 6

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 0

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 3. 1 5), (' Ki', 2 9. 9 6), (' K g', 0. 0 6), (' Kss', 1. 2), (' g 0', 6 8. 5 1), (' g _ m a x', 5 8 0. 9), (' K _r u n', 8. 4), (' P _ m a x', 4 8 0. 6)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 8)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 7 %

4. 8 %

1 3. 3 %

- 0. 0 5 2

- 1. 9 8 4

0. 1 4 7

N S _l o g

0. 4 0 1

- 0. 0 6 5

- 0. 0 8 2

N S _r el

- 2 7. 8 9 2

- 4 8. 9 4

- 1. 1 9 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A25

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

K GE

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

0. 4 3 7

- 0. 0 2 3

0. 3 7 3

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 6 - 1 9 9 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 0 %

- 3 3. 9 %

1. 0 %

0. 3 5 8

0. 5 8 6

0. 3

N S _l o g

0. 5 8 5

0. 6 7 9

0. 0 5 4

N S _r el

- 2. 2 7 8

0. 7 8 1

- 4. 1 2

K GE

0. 5 2 8

0. 3 6 7

0. 3 9 2

9. 2. 5. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A26

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A27

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A28

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 M A R 4 9 6 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 9 6 1 0 1 0 2 - St. J a ns b e e k; M er k e m

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A29

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 6

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 " (IJz er)

9. 2. 6. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 (IJz er)

9. 2. 6. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e Fi n al r e p ort

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1 W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A30

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V01P OP491030

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

84868207

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 7

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 2. 8 4), (' Ki', 1 0 3. 2 6), (' K g', 0. 0 8), (' Kss', 2. 1 5), (' g 0', 1 5 7. 9), (' g _ m a x', 4 4 9 9. 9 3), (' K _r u n', 0. 1), (' P _ m a x', 2 4 4. 7 2)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 3 %

1 5 2. 8 %

- 7. 4 %

0. 0 7 7

- 5. 1 1 6

0. 0 5 2

N S _l o g

0. 3 2 6

- 1. 2 0 2

- 0. 1 2 8

N S _r el

- 7. 4 0 9

- 2 7. 8 7

- 1. 3 5 8

K GE

0. 3 0 6

- 0. 9 7 4

0. 1 7 8

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

6. 4 %

6 4. 4 %

- 1 1. 0 %

0. 0 0 7

- 0. 5 7 4

0. 0 9 5

N S _l o g

0. 3 1 4

- 0. 0 5

0. 1 5 7

N S _r el

- 2 2. 7 5 6

- 2 9. 2 9 4

- 0. 5 3 2

K GE

0. 2 3 8

0. 1 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A31

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 6. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A32

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A33

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2- P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2- P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A34

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2- P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n

Fi g ur e 1 0: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 9 1 1 0 1 0 2- P o p eri n g e v a art; O ost vl et er e n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A35

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 7

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 1 S S V 4 9 9 1 4 0 " (IJz er)

9. 2. 7. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 S S V 4 9 9 1 4 0 (IJz er)

9. 2. 7. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e Fi n al r e p ort

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1 W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A36

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 1SS V 49 91 40

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

16100000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 8

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 7 6), (' Ki', 1 4 2. 3 2), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 7 4), (' g 0', 4 1 8. 7), (' g _ m a x', 5 9 4. 3 6), (' K _r u n', 1 1. 5 4), (' P _ m a x', 3 9 6. 8)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 9 - 2 0 0 4)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 3. 1 %

1 1 7. 0 %

- 2 7. 5 %

0. 4 5 3

- 0. 4 2

0. 4 9 2

N S _l o g

0. 2 8 8

- 0. 5 9

0. 4 2 6

N S _r el

- 2 6 5. 5 0 5

- 1 9 0. 5 8 8

- 0. 3 1 1

K GE

0. 7 3 4

- 0. 4 0 6

0. 6 8 2

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 3 - 1 9 9 8)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

2. 2 %

1 4 3. 3 %

- 3 4. 5 %

- 0. 3 3 4

- 7. 2 0 4

0. 5 6 2

N S _l o g

0. 3 2 4

- 0. 3 9 2

0. 5 7 3

N S _r el

- 2 5. 0 3 6

- 1 9. 9 0 6

0. 0 7 6

K GE

0. 3 9 5

- 1. 8 9 7

0. 6 0 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A37

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 2. 7. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 S S V 4 9 9 1 4 0, st ati o n 4 9 9 1 0 1 0 2 - St e e n b e e k; M er k e m( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 S S V 4 9 9 1 4 0, st ati o n 4 9 9 1 0 1 0 2 St e e n b e e k; M er k e m ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A38

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 S S V 4 9 9 1 4 0, st ati o n 4 9 9 1 0 1 0 2 - St e e n b e e k; M er k e m ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 S S V 4 9 9 1 4 0, st ati o n 4 9 9 1 0 1 0 2 St e e n b e e k; M er k e m ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A39

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 1 S S V 4 9 9 1 4 0, st ati o n 4 9 9 1 0 1 0 2 - St e e n b e e k; M er k e m

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A40

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 3

Fi n al v ersi o n

IJz er A ut o c ali brati o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 41

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H A N 4 8 8 1 8 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 1 9- 1 3)

9. 3. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi g ur e 2: A n n u al c u m ul at e d dis c h ar g e a n d s c al e d pr e ci p ati o n usi n g a v er a g e r u n off c o effi ci e nt R C is c al c ul at e d b as e d o n t h e w h ol e a v ail a bl e ti m es eri es

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A42

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V01 H A N488180

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

78600000

st art _ d at e

200801010000

e n d _ d at e

201301010000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 3. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 0 0 9 6, 1. 0, 1 2 1. 3 9 3, 2 5 0. 0 1 7, 2. 2 3 4, 1 5 0. 7 2 7]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 5, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 5, 9 0. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 1. 6, 1 2 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 3. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 0. 0 5, 1 0 0. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 5 0 0. 0, 9. 0, 4 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 1 0 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 9 6), (' Kss', 1. 0), (' g 0', 1 2 1. 3 9 3), (' g _ m a x', 2 5 0. 0 1 7), (' K _r u n', 2. 2 3 4), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 0. 7 2 7)] I niti al fit n es s:     

R el Err: 0. 5 1 8 A bs Err: 3 5 2 7 8 7 7 1. 9 6 7 K G E: 0. 4 4 6 N S _r el: - 1. 9 4 1 N S: 0. 5 9 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A43

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

 

R M S E: 4 0 3 6 2 4 3 8. 9 6 3 N S _l o g: 0. 0 7 5

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 3: 3 5: 4 5. 8 9 3 0 0 0 9. 3. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 8 2 4), (' Ki', 1 9 8. 6 7 7), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 5), (' g 0', 1 1 8. 7 3 1), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 6. 4 0 8), (' K _r u n', 3. 0 7 1), (' P _ m a x', 1 8 6. 2 5 5)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 0 6 A bs Err: 1 2 4 8 7 9 5. 8 6 2 K G E: 0. 7 7 8 N S _r el: 0. 5 6 9 N S: 0. 6 6 9 R M S E: 1 5 7 6 8 8 4. 8 1 5 N S _l o g: 0. 6 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A44

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A45

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A46

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A47

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A48

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 1. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 5 4 1, 1 : [ 1. 7 7 1, 2 : [ 1. 8 5 5, 3 : [ 1. 9 0 9, 4 : [ 1. 8 2 4,

Fi n al r e p ort

1 9 6. 5 4 1, 2 0 2. 4 7 4, 1 7 2. 0 9 6, 1 7 0. 1 6 6, 1 9 8. 6 7 7,

0. 0 0 5, 3. 5 7 1, 0. 0 0 8, 0. 5, 0. 0 0 8, 1. 5 6 6, 0. 0 1, 4. 6 9 6, 0. 0 1, 0. 5,

1 1 6. 0 5 5, 1 1 9. 4 8 4, 1 1 8. 6 8 3, 1 1 7. 5 4 5, 1 1 8. 7 3 1,

2 4 9. 5 8 8, 2 9 1. 4 9 3, 2 6 5. 4 4 9, 2 5 1. 5 0 8, 2 8 6. 4 0 8,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

2. 7 7 6, 2. 8 0 7, 1. 9 6 5, 3. 5 7 4, 3. 0 7 1,

1 9 0. 6 3 5] 1 8 7. 9 2 4] 1 8 4. 4 8 4] 1 8 3. 8 1 4] 1 8 6. 2 5 5]

: [ 1 0 2 8 8 1 3 9. 9 7 7, : [ 3 7 2 2 4 1 1. 9 1 5, : [ 4 3 7 0 0 6 7. 5 0 5, : [ 2 1 3 5 1 3 6. 4 4 4, : [ 1 2 4 8 7 9 5. 8 6 2,

0. 6 8 7] 0. 6 7 8] 0. 6 8 5] 0. 6 7 4] 0. 6 7]

A49

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 2

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 2 0 1- 0 8)

9. 3. 2. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A50

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 2. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 1 H EI 4 6 8 9 9 9

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

393000000

st art _ d at e

199001010000

e n d _ d at e

199612310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 3. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 0 0 9, 1. 5, 9 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 2. 0, 1 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 2, 3 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 3, 0. 5, 2 0. 0, 4 0. 0, 0. 4, 1 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 4. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 4 5 0. 0, 6. 0, 3 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 1 0 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 9), (' Kss', 1. 5), (' g 0', 9 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 1 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 2. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 2 6 8 A bs Err: 8 3 3 6 2 5 5 4. 6 2 2 K G E: 0. 6 1 5 N S _r el: - 1. 6 5 1 N S: 0. 3 2 7 R M S E: 9 3 3 9 1 6 8 0. 7 5 9 N S _l o g: 0. 2 2 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A51

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 2 d a ys, 1 5: 2 9: 5 5. 2 1 0 0 0 0 9. 3. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 1 5 3), (' Ki', 1 5 6. 6 7 2), (' K g', 0. 0 0 5), (' Kss', 3. 7 6 8), (' g 0', 1 0 9. 2 8 2), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 5. 3 9 8), (' K _r u n', 3. 9 5 7), (' P _ m a x', 1 9 6. 4 9 8)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 4 A bs Err: 1 6 5 1 6 9 7 9. 1 1 9 K G E: 0. 6 4 8 N S _r el: - 0. 2 3 N S: 0. 3 2 8 R M S E: 2 4 4 0 7 0 0 9. 1 5 5 N S _l o g: 0. 3 9 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A52

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A53

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A54

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A55

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 2. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: : : : : : : : : :

[ 1. 1 5 1, 1 1 5. 4 1 1, 0. 0 0 5, 4. 0, 9 0. 9 8 5, 3 0 3. 4 7 8, 4. 1 7 7, 2 5 9. 2 9] : [ 1 3 1 0 8 3 2 5. 6 0 3, [ 1. 1 8 9, 9 2. 6 3 1, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 2 1 7, 4 8. 9 8 7, 2 9 8. 7 9 2, 3. 7 1 2, 1 8 0. 6 8 6] : [ 6 3 3 6 3 7 1 1. 6 5 7, [ 1. 0 7 6, 1 2 8. 7 2 6, 0. 0 0 4, 4. 0, 1 2 1. 1 9 6, 2 7 2. 7 3 9, 1. 9 1, 2 9 1. 3 3 5] : [ 1 1 8 9 8 3 8 0. 2 0 5, [ 1. 2 9 6, 1 9 9. 5 2 8, 0. 0 0 5, 4. 0, 1 1 3. 3 2 4, 3 0 6. 5 0 1, 4. 1 0 2, 2 8 1. 3 1] : [ 3 1 9 8 3 3 8 4. 6 7 2, [ 1. 1 9 1, 1 0 3. 1 4 2, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 4 7, 7 9. 6 2 7, 2 9 9. 2 8 8, 3. 9 9 1, 2 1 9. 0 8 1] : [ 5 0 5 2 3 4 5 1. 7 8 6, [ 1. 2 7 8, 2 0 2. 3 8 3, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 8 7 6, 8 8. 3 8 8, 3 0 0. 3 5 7, 3. 7 2 6, 2 0 6. 5 9 5] : [ 3 5 5 5 3 7 9 1. 5 3 5, [ 1. 1 5 3, 1 5 6. 6 7 2, 0. 0 0 5, 3. 7 6 8, 1 0 9. 2 8 2, 2 8 5. 3 9 8, 3. 9 5 7, 1 9 6. 4 9 8] : [ 1 6 5 1 6 9 7 9. 1 1 9, [ 1. 1 7, 1 9 1. 1 1 3, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 8 5 1, 1 1 6. 1 3 6, 2 5 7. 9 8 5, 4. 3 6 4, 2 7 9. 3 9 3] : [ 2 7 7 6 3 0 5 8. 5 2 1, [ 1. 2, 1 0 9. 8 8 5, 0. 0 0 5, 2. 9 5 9, 1 1 1. 5 4 6, 3 0 8. 9 1, 3. 4 0 4, 2 7 1. 3 7 8] : [ 1 5 8 4 4 4 5 7. 0 3 2, [ 1. 2 5 8, 1 5 6. 3 2 1, 0. 0 0 3, 3. 0 5 6, 1 1 3. 1 0 3, 3 3 8. 9 3 3, 3. 5 4 1, 2 8 9. 0 1 7] : [ 5 6 6 4 9 6 1 3. 3 0 5, : [ 1. 0 4 3, 1 6 0. 3 5 3, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 8 6 3, 7 1. 1 9 5, 2 9 9. 6, 3. 7 2 3, 1 8 4. 9 3] : [ 1 3 1 5 3 5 2 7. 2 6 8, : [ 1. 3 0 8, 1 9 8. 9 9 4, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 9 6 1, 1 1 5. 8 0 8, 2 9 7. 4 8 8, 4. 1 2 8, 2 8 1. 0 8 2] : [ 4 3 9 1 2 4 2 7. 3 1 8, : [ 1. 0 5 2, 1 7 7. 7 8, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 8 9 2, 1 0 2. 2 3 2, 2 7 4. 7 0 2, 3. 2 2 4, 2 7 2. 7 3 9] : [ 1 3 4 2 3 5 1 0. 0 2 4, : [ 1. 2 9 6, 1 6 3. 5 6 4, 0. 0 0 5, 4. 0, 9 2. 5 4 8, 3 0 2. 9 5 9, 3. 8 4 4, 2 8 0. 5] : [ 3 1 1 8 5 6 1 0. 3 4 3, : [ 1. 2 9 1, 1 8 2. 5 3 2, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 3 8 2, 1 1 4. 4 6 6, 3 1 6. 1 9 6, 3. 6 0 1, 2 8 2. 4 1 8] : [ 3 2 5 7 4 3 9 9. 2 9 9, : [ 1. 2 4, 1 9 3. 1 6 1, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 9 3, 1 0 7. 6 2 7, 3 0 7. 2 7 5, 3. 9 5 1, 2 7 9. 7 8 8] : [ 2 8 4 0 4 2 7 4. 5 5 2, : [ 1. 2 9 6, 1 9 9. 8 7 9, 0. 0 0 5, 4. 0, 1 1 3. 3 2 4, 3 0 6. 5 9 7, 4. 1 0 2, 2 8 1. 3 1] : [ 3 1 9 3 0 9 6 7. 4 5 3, : [ 1. 2 5 3, 1 6 3. 6 6 3, 0. 0 0 5, 3. 9 8 6, 1 0 0. 8 5 7, 3 0 4. 0 3 6, 3. 3 3 2, 2 8 0. 3 0 8] : [ 2 1 8 5 7 8 2 8. 3 6 7, : [ 1. 1 8 9, 9 3. 4 3 4, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 8 1 6, 4 8. 9 8 7, 2 9 8. 7 9 2, 3. 7 1 2, 1 8 0. 6 8 6] : [ 6 3 0 2 2 6 2 1. 0 0 8, : [ 1. 2 4, 1 9 1. 4 1 7, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 3 3 2, 1 0 7. 9 5 7, 3 0 7. 2 7 5, 3. 9 5 1, 2 7 9. 7 8 8] : [ 2 8 5 0 8 3 3 3. 1 6 8,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 3 6 1] 0. 4 4 7] 0. 3 3 7] 0. 4 2 8] 0. 4 3 8] 0. 4 3 3] 0. 3 9 8] 0. 4 2 2] 0. 3 8 9] 0. 4 4 3] 0. 3 7 1] 0. 4 3 6] 0. 3 8 8] 0. 4 2 7] 0. 4 3] 0. 4 2 4] 0. 4 2 8] 0. 4 1 6] 0. 4 4 6] 0. 4 2 4]

A56

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 3

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 3 1 4- 5 4)

9. 3. 3. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A57

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 3. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 1I E P 4 9 5 0 8 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

63400000

st art _ d at e

199901010000

e n d _ d at e

200412310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 3. 3. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A58

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0 4, 2 5. 3, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 1 3, 4. 5 4, 2 5 0. 4, 1 3. 3 4, 2 0 0. 0 2]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 8, 2 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 7, 0. 5, 3. 6, 2 0 0. 0, 1 0. 0, 1 6 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 5, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 9, 0. 8 5, 5. 4, 3 0 0. 0, 1 6. 0, 2 4 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0 4), (' Ki', 2 5. 3), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 7 1 3), (' g 0', 4. 5 4), (' g _ m a x', 2 5 0. 4), (' K _r u n', 1 3. 3 4), (' P _ m a x', 2 0 0. 0 2)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 1 4 2 A bs Err: 7 0 0 5 8 8 9. 1 8 7 K G E: 0. 6 8 4 N S _r el: - 1. 3 9 6 N S: 0. 4 5 4 R M S E: 8 4 4 8 4 3 9. 9 6 6 N S _l o g: 0. 4 0 5

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 4: 3 5: 2 5. 5 8 0 0 0 0 9. 3. 3. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 0 4 4), (' Ki', 2 5. 2 8 7), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 7 6 2), (' g 0', 3. 6), (' g _ m a x', 2 7 8. 3 8 3), (' K _r u n', 1 3. 9 1 9), (' P _ m a x', 1 7 0. 1 0 7)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 2 4 A bs Err: 1 2 7 7 6 5 7. 1 2 4 K G E: 0. 7 1 2 N S _r el: - 0. 8 3 7 N S: 0. 4 8 4 R M S E: 1 8 5 0 2 6 0. 9 2 1 N S _l o g: 0. 5 3 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A59

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A60

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 3. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A61

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 3. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A62

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 3. 3. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 0 4 4, 2 5. 2 8 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 6 2, 3. 6, [ 1. 0 8 4, 2 5. 1 7 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 5, 4. 9 6 1, [ 1. 2 5 5, 2 3. 7 9 9, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5, 5. 3 2 7, [ 1. 0 7 8, 2 5. 2 5 1, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 5, 4. 0 0 3, [ 1. 0 8 5, 2 5. 2 3 2, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 5, 4. 0 4 9, [ 1. 1 8 9, 2 4. 4 7 6, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 6 1 8, 3. 6, [ 1. 0 8 2, 2 6. 0 6 6, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 5, 5. 1 3 3, [ 1. 0 8, 2 5. 7 4 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 5, 4. 9 2 6, [ 1. 0 4 8, 2 5. 0 8 9, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5 9 5, 4. 5 9 5, [ 1. 0 4 4, 2 5. 3, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5 5 2, 4. 1 8 1, : [ 1. 1 8 6, 2 4. 2 8 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5, 3. 7 5 4, : [ 1. 0 8 2, 2 5. 6 6 9, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5, 3. 7 6, : [ 1. 0 7 8, 2 5. 2 9 6, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 6 4 7, 3. 6,

Fi n al r e p ort

2 7 8. 3 8 3, 2 8 4. 4 2, 2 6 1. 2 6 3, 2 8 0. 9 7, 2 8 3. 0 0 7, 2 8 1. 4 7 6, 2 8 4. 4 4 9, 2 8 2. 8 4 3, 2 8 4. 9 9 1, 2 7 4. 9 7 8, 2 8 0. 6 8 9, 2 8 5. 2 9, 2 8 3. 2 8 5,

1 3. 9 1 9, 1 4. 1 3 9, 1 4. 1 2 7, 1 3. 9 3 6, 1 4. 1 0 2, 1 4. 1 3 6, 1 3. 5 9 9, 1 3. 6 1 3, 1 4. 9 2 6, 1 4. 2 3 8, 1 2. 4 8 6, 1 3. 5 9 6, 1 4. 8 5 3,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

1 7 0. 1 0 7] 1 7 9. 0 9 4] 1 9 2. 7 8 9] 1 7 8. 3 0 1] 1 7 8. 2 3 3] 1 9 2. 1 9] 1 7 8. 4 8 3] 1 7 9. 4 8 2] 1 7 7. 5 4 1] 1 7 1. 7 2 6] 1 8 6. 2 8 3] 1 7 9. 1 1 3] 1 7 8. 6 7 5]

: [ 1 2 7 7 6 5 7. 1 2 4, : [ 3 1 7 4 7 3 8. 8 6 1, : [ 9 8 1 6 8 0. 9 6 4, : [ 2 9 8 4 6 5 9. 4 1 6, : [ 3 2 5 2 9 9 5. 7 0 6, : [ 1 0 6 4 1 1 1. 9 8 7, : [ 1 9 7 6 3 6 4. 3 8 2, : [ 2 3 8 1 4 6 9. 8 3 9, : [ 1 1 6 3 5 1 5. 7 0 2, : [ 1 5 1 3 1 6 5. 8 3 5, : [ 1 0 3 9 5 5 5. 7 9 5, : [ 2 6 0 7 0 6 7. 9 5 2, : [ 2 9 8 9 0 7 0. 2 0 6,

0. 5 3 7] 0. 5 5 1] 0. 4 7 5] 0. 5 5] 0. 5 5 1] 0. 5 1] 0. 5 4 6] 0. 5 4 8] 0. 5 2 7] 0. 5 4] 0. 5 0 9] 0. 5 5] 0. 5 5 1]

A63

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A64

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 4

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 1 K E M 4 9 2 0 6 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 0 1 7- 3 6)

9. 3. 4. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 3. 4. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A65

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V01KE M492060

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

73900000

st art _ d at e

200901010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 3. 4. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 9, 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 1 0 0. 0, 2. 0, 1 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 2, 1 0. 0, 0. 0 0 1 8, 0. 2, 1 0. 0, 2 0. 0, 0. 4, 2 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 0. 0 2 7, 3. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 4 0 0. 0, 6. 0, 4 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 5 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 9), (' Kss', 1. 0), (' g 0', 5 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 1 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 2. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 9 9 A bs Err: 5 9 4 6 0 1 9. 9 6 2 K G E: 0. 1 9 N S _r el: - 1 1 3. 4 0 5 N S: 0. 1 8 2 R M S E: 7 5 9 8 2 9 3. 9 9 8 N S _l o g: 0. 1 8 9

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 4: 4 6: 0 8. 2 7 5 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A66

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 4. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 4 4 4), (' Ki', 1 4 6. 2 0 8), (' K g', 0. 0 2 7), (' Kss', 1. 5 1 5), (' g 0', 9 2. 0 3 9), (' g _ m a x', 8 1. 1 4 5), (' K _r u n', 4. 3 0 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 6. 2 6)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 6 6 A bs Err: 4 1 3 9 4 3 1. 4 4 6 K G E: 0. 3 5 2 N S _r el: - 3 4. 1 8 9 N S: 0. 2 3 8 R M S E: 5 6 3 3 7 7 3. 7 3 6 N S _l o g: 0. 3 5 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A67

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A68

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 4. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A69

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 4. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A70

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A71

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 4. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: : : : : : : : : :

[ 1. 3 5 4, 1 3 5. 0 5 1, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 5 8, 8 4. 0 1 2, 7 7. 8 0 4, 2. 3 4 5, 1 4 6. 6 5 9] : [ 4 1 3 7 3 4 0. 7 8, [ 1. 3 9 6, 1 4 5. 5 4, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 0 1 8, 7 8. 0 0 3, 1 0 8. 5 8 8, 4. 3 0 3, 1 4 6. 0 2 7] : [ 2 6 6 3 3 4 4. 6 3 2, [ 1. 5 8 3, 1 4 3. 2 9 8, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 3 4 1, 8 4. 4 1 8, 8 5. 9 5 2, 2. 8 8 7, 1 4 1. 4 7] : [ 7 3 9 2 6 0 2. 7 3 8, [ 2. 0, 1 4 5. 8 4 2, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 5 5 8, 8 4. 6 1 8, 1 1 9. 8 2 4, 2. 8 6, 1 2 8. 8] : [ 1 2 4 1 8 9 7 9. 0 9 2, [ 1. 4 4 4, 1 4 6. 2 0 8, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 5 1 5, 9 2. 0 3 9, 8 1. 1 4 5, 4. 3 0 5, 1 5 6. 2 6] : [ 4 1 3 9 4 3 1. 4 4 6, [ 1. 8 5 5, 1 3 4. 9 2, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 0 1 6, 8 5. 6 3 1, 1 1 7. 4 9 1, 4. 5 2 4, 1 3 5. 6 7 8] : [ 8 9 4 7 2 4 3. 5 6 2, [ 1. 3 9 2, 1 5 4. 8 5 6, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 7 2 4, 7 7. 8 6 7, 9 4. 3 5, 4. 1 0 1, 1 4 8. 2 4 2] : [ 3 1 0 1 0 7 0. 1 8 4, [ 1. 6 0 6, 1 6 1. 2 0 1, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 8 6 5, 7 7. 3 9 4, 8 0. 8 9 3, 3. 0 6 1, 1 4 7. 6 7 9] : [ 8 3 9 9 8 5 6. 2 9 8, [ 1. 4 4 9, 1 4 4. 7 2 1, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 2 3 1, 9 2. 3 4 5, 8 3. 0 6 1, 3. 2 1 2, 1 4 8. 6 8 8] : [ 4 7 0 1 0 5 7. 1 6 2, [ 1. 7 6 4, 1 4 6. 8 1 5, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 5 5 4, 7 8. 5 4 8, 1 0 8. 5 4 6, 4. 7 8 2, 1 3 2. 2 3 9] : [ 8 0 3 9 7 3 6. 4 8 7, : [ 1. 5 8 2, 1 6 0. 0 7 3, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 8 4 9, 7 7. 6 9 1, 8 6. 3 1 7, 3. 2 6, 1 4 7. 7 4] : [ 7 3 9 0 5 8 1. 9 2 3, : [ 1. 5 1 5, 1 5 6. 3 4, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 9 9 7, 7 7. 7 0 4, 8 6. 1 6 3, 4. 0 1 7, 1 4 8. 1 4 6] : [ 5 3 6 7 2 0 5. 1 6 7, : [ 1. 4 0 6, 1 5 9. 1 8 1, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 5 2, 8 0. 8 5 9, 8 9. 6 3 1, 4. 2 4 7, 1 5 2. 7 1 1] : [ 3 4 4 7 3 5 5. 9 9 9, : [ 1. 8 2 4, 1 4 3. 8 5 4, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 6 3 2, 8 8. 7 1 5, 1 1 2. 0 2 8, 3. 5 3 1, 1 4 0. 6 6 3] : [ 9 5 1 4 8 9 2. 7 8 8, : [ 1. 5 2, 1 5 9. 4 4 5, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 8 8 3, 7 7. 6 9 4, 8 6. 1 6 4, 3. 4 9 6, 1 4 6. 4 2 9] : [ 5 9 3 5 4 9 5. 7 6 6, : [ 1. 9 1 9, 1 3 6. 0 0 5, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 4 7 3, 8 2. 9 8 5, 1 0 5. 5 1 4, 4. 5 2 3, 1 3 7. 8 5] : [ 1 0 6 2 9 5 0 4. 5 7 9, : [ 1. 6 3 4, 1 5 3. 1 1 2, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 2 4 4, 7 9. 7 3 2, 1 0 7. 4 6 7, 3. 1 1, 1 4 5. 3 3 5] : [ 7 0 3 8 8 1 0. 2 1 6, : [ 1. 6 9 8, 1 4 6. 6 3 1, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 3 0 3, 9 2. 3 3 2, 7 9. 8 3, 3. 0 7 4, 1 5 5. 3 6 5] : [ 9 7 6 5 6 2 9. 3 6 4, : [ 1. 9 8 9, 1 3 6. 9 4 5, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 9 3 3, 8 6. 1 7 1, 1 1 7. 6 6 7, 5. 9 9 9, 1 4 7. 2 2 5] : [ 1 0 5 7 3 7 8 7. 4 8 1, : [ 1. 9 8 8, 1 4 7. 2 6 7, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 2, 8 2. 1 9 3, 1 1 0. 6 8, 4. 1 6 9, 1 3 0. 1 7 8] : [ 1 1 8 2 1 1 3 6. 1 5 2, : [ 1. 4 5 9, 1 5 9. 9 1 6, 0. 0 2 7, 0. 4 4 6, 8 4. 0 2 8, 7 7. 0 5 9, 2. 3 4 5, 1 4 6. 6 4 8] : [ 6 6 0 7 9 7 8. 3 6 3, : [ 1. 3 4 8, 1 4 3. 8 5 4, 0. 0 2 7, 1. 6 2 6, 7 9. 4 3 9, 8 2. 4 4 5, 3. 2 5 1, 1 4 6. 8 6 1] : [ 3 2 5 5 3 5 5. 2 2 5,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 3 4 6] 0. 3 1 1] 0. 3 7 6] 0. 3 8 7] 0. 3 5 6] 0. 3 8 2] 0. 3 2 9] 0. 3 8] 0. 3 5 9] 0. 3 7 9] 0. 3 7 6] 0. 3 6 5] 0. 3 3 8] 0. 3 8 3] 0. 3 6 8] 0. 3 8 6] 0. 3 6 9] 0. 3 8 5] 0. 3 8 5] 0. 3 8 7] 0. 3 6 8] 0. 3 3 5]

A72

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 5

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 1 P O P 4 9 1 0 3 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 2 3- 1 3)

9. 3. 5. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A73

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 5. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V01P OP491030

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

84868207

st art _ d at e

200801010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 3. 5. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A74

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 2. 4 7, 9 1. 8 1, 0. 1 2 3, 1. 8 2, 1 6 1. 5 4, 4 2 6 1. 4 2, 0. 0 8, 2 6 7. 9 7]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 7 8. 0, 0. 0 8, 1. 4 4, 1 2 8. 8, 3 4 0 8. 0, 0. 0 6 4, 2 0 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 3. 2, 1 1 7. 0, 0. 1 2, 2. 1 6, 1 9 3. 0, 5 1 2 0. 0, 0. 1, 3 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 2. 4 7), (' Ki', 9 1. 8 1), (' K g', 0. 1 2 3), (' Kss', 1. 8 2), (' g 0', 1 6 1. 5 4), (' g _ m a x', 4 2 6 1. 4 2), (' K _r u n', 0. 0 8), (' P _ m a x', 2 6 7. 9 7)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 1 2 A bs Err: 5 9 7 8 4 2 3. 4 2 8 K G E: 0. 3 3 5 N S _r el: - 7. 9 3 6 N S: 0. 0 7 4 R M S E: 6 5 7 1 6 7 8. 2 3 9 N S _l o g: 0. 3 1 3

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 0: 0 9: 3 1. 3 9 8 0 0 0 9. 3. 5. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 2. 8 4 4), (' Ki', 1 0 3. 2 5 9), (' K g', 0. 0 8), (' Kss', 2. 1 4 6), (' g 0', 1 5 7. 8 9 5), (' g _ m a x', 4 4 9 9. 9 2 9), (' K _r u n', 0. 1), (' P _ m a x', 2 4 4. 7 1 7)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 5 3 A bs Err: 3 9 8 1 3 6 4. 7 6 3 K G E: 0. 3 0 6 N S _r el: - 7. 4 0 9 N S: 0. 0 7 7 R M S E: 5 6 1 1 1 7 3. 2 4 7 N S _l o g: 0. 3 2 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A75

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A76

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 5. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A77

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 5. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A78

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A79

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 5. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: : : : : : : : : :

[ 2. 8 4 2, 9 9. 5 7 3, 0. 1 0 4, 1. 6 8 8, 1 7 4. 3 4 5, 5 0 9 4. 1 6 7, 0. 0 7 2, 2 1 7. 6 5 3] : [ 3 9 7 3 1 4 9. 6 2 9, [ 2. 8 2 5, 1 0 7. 4 2 4, 0. 0 8, 1. 8 9 3, 1 6 2. 6 2 4, 4 4 5 2. 1 9 6, 0. 0 9 9, 2 5 2. 9 8 4] : [ 3 9 8 7 6 0 8. 9 3 5, [ 2. 7 6 6, 9 7. 0 9 3, 0. 0 8, 2. 1 6, 1 6 9. 0 6 8, 4 5 1 2. 2 5 9, 0. 1, 2 4 9. 9 3 5] : [ 4 2 1 7 3 4 6. 6 7 5, [ 2. 7 0 4, 1 0 1. 2 5 9, 0. 0 8, 1. 8 7 4, 1 5 6. 5 9 4, 4 4 6 6. 7 9 6, 0. 1, 2 5 0. 4 6 8] : [ 4 5 5 2 3 7 3. 5 4 3, [ 2. 7 4 4, 9 9. 6 7, 0. 0 8, 1. 4 4, 1 6 2. 5 3 5, 4 4 8 5. 7 2 2, 0. 1, 2 4 9. 9 0 2] : [ 4 3 3 4 6 3 2. 2 3 1, [ 2. 7 5 6, 1 0 4. 3 5 9, 0. 0 8, 2. 1 6, 1 6 8. 4 3 4, 4 5 0 2. 8 6 7, 0. 0 9 9, 2 5 0. 0 4 9] : [ 4 2 5 8 1 4 0. 2 3 7, [ 2. 8 3 7, 1 0 3. 8 1 9, 0. 0 9 6, 1. 7 3 8, 1 3 1. 8 7 5, 4 7 7 0. 8 1 8, 0. 1, 2 1 5. 5 2 1] : [ 3 9 7 9 1 9 0. 7 0 7, [ 2. 7 9, 1 0 8. 1 5 6, 0. 0 8, 1. 9 1 1, 1 6 2. 0 4 3, 4 4 7 4. 3 2 7, 0. 0 9 9, 2 4 8. 2 9 5] : [ 4 0 8 3 1 6 2. 6 6, [ 2. 7 4 4, 1 0 4. 2 5 4, 0. 0 8, 1. 8 5 1, 1 5 6. 9 9, 4 4 7 0. 0 8 2, 0. 0 9 9, 2 5 0. 4 5] : [ 4 3 1 9 7 8 1. 7 3, [ 2. 5 8 5, 9 8. 9 2 9, 0. 0 8, 1. 8 4, 1 6 5. 3 5 5, 4 4 9 4. 0 6 3, 0. 1, 2 4 1. 8 4 4] : [ 5 3 2 1 2 6 6. 6 8 2, : [ 2. 5 4, 9 9. 2 2 3, 0. 0 8, 2. 1 6, 1 6 2. 6, 4 5 1 3. 1 6 5, 0. 1, 2 4 2. 5 9 9] : [ 5 6 3 5 3 4 6. 6 9 2, : [ 2. 6 3 1, 1 0 3. 4 1 6, 0. 0 8, 1. 6 1 8, 1 4 8. 1 1 6, 4 4 7 4. 3 1 6, 0. 1, 2 4 8. 6 9 3] : [ 5 0 0 1 6 7 5. 6 5 3, : [ 2. 6 3 1, 1 0 3. 4 1 6, 0. 0 8, 1. 4 4, 1 4 8. 1 1 6, 4 4 7 4. 3 1 6, 0. 1, 2 4 8. 2 6 4] : [ 5 0 0 2 1 1 6. 3 1 8, : [ 2. 7 9, 1 0 5. 4 4 1, 0. 0 8, 1. 9 1 4, 1 6 1. 8 7 8, 4 5 1 1. 1 3, 0. 1, 2 4 9. 4 1] : [ 4 0 8 8 2 0 7. 0 9 6, : [ 2. 6 3 4, 1 0 1. 5 9, 0. 0 8, 1. 6 9 5, 1 3 3. 8 6 9, 4 5 4 3. 0 1, 0. 1, 2 4 9. 8 6 5] : [ 4 9 9 1 0 7 8. 9 5 5, : [ 2. 6 2 5, 1 0 0. 1 5 7, 0. 0 8, 2. 1 6, 1 5 9. 2 7 8, 4 5 1 3. 7 5 1, 0. 1, 2 4 4. 5 1 2] : [ 5 0 5 7 0 8 9. 8 5 6, : [ 2. 7 3 9, 1 0 1. 7 0 6, 0. 0 8, 1. 8 9 5, 1 6 9. 9 3 7, 4 6 6 6. 3 0 7, 0. 0 9 7, 2 1 9. 2 1 3] : [ 4 3 7 8 2 2 0. 6 2 5, : [ 2. 6 8 8, 9 8. 6 3 6, 0. 0 8, 2. 1 6, 1 5 7. 8 1 4, 4 5 1 3. 3 4, 0. 1, 2 4 4. 7 1 5] : [ 4 6 6 2 0 6 5. 9 7 6, : [ 2. 7 7 8, 1 0 6. 6 4, 0. 0 8, 2. 0 9, 1 6 2. 8 2 6, 4 5 1 1. 1 9 6, 0. 1, 2 5 0. 0 5 7] : [ 4 1 4 8 7 1 9. 2 2, : [ 2. 5 5 8, 9 9. 1 6 9, 0. 0 8, 1. 4 4, 1 6 3. 6 3 9, 4 5 1 3. 5 7 3, 0. 1, 2 4 2. 9 4 4] : [ 5 5 1 5 0 2 8. 2 2 9, : [ 2. 6 1, 1 0 4. 9 6 4, 0. 0 8, 2. 1 0 6, 1 6 0. 8 5 9, 4 5 1 1. 6 4 6, 0. 1, 2 4 6. 6 1] : [ 5 1 4 6 0 7 7. 8 9 1, : [ 2. 6 4 7, 1 0 0. 1 2 7, 0. 0 8, 1. 9 8 5, 1 5 8. 5 4 1, 4 5 1 3. 0 7 5, 0. 1, 2 4 4. 6 3] : [ 4 9 1 0 4 4 5. 7 2 6, : [ 2. 6 6 4, 1 0 5. 4 2 9, 0. 0 8, 2. 1 4 9, 1 6 1. 2 0 4, 4 5 1 1. 3 4 9, 0. 1, 2 4 7. 2 9 6] : [ 4 7 9 5 0 9 5. 1 2 2, : [ 2. 8 4 4, 1 0 3. 2 5 9, 0. 0 8, 2. 1 4 6, 1 5 7. 8 9 5, 4 4 9 9. 9 2 9, 0. 1, 2 4 4. 7 1 7] : [ 3 9 8 1 3 6 4. 7 6 3, : [ 2. 6 6 1, 1 0 0. 2 8 6, 0. 0 8, 2. 1, 1 6 7. 9 6 5, 4 5 3 5. 8 0 5, 0. 0 9 7, 2 2 3. 0 7 3] : [ 4 8 4 0 3 6 5. 1 5 6,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 3 1] 0. 3 2 6] 0. 3 2 8] 0. 3 2 9] 0. 3 2 8] 0. 3 2 8] 0. 3 2] 0. 3 2 7] 0. 3 2 8] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 2 7] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 2 9] 0. 3 2 9] 0. 3 2 8] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 2 6] 0. 3 3]

A80

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 6

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 1 S S V 4 9 9 1 4 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 1 6- 4 0)

9. 3. 6. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A81

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 6. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 1SS V 49 91 40

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

16100000

st art _ d at e

199901010000

e n d _ d at e

200412310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 3. 6. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A82

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5 0 7, 1 2 3. 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9, 3 9 9. 1 3, 6 5 1. 8 8, 1 1. 7, 3 8 3. 7 8]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 2, 9 8. 0, 0. 0 0 0 8 3, 0. 7, 3 1 0. 0, 5 3 0. 0, 9. 7, 3 0 6. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 8, 1 4 7. 0, 0. 0 0 1 2, 1. 0 8, 4 7 8. 0, 7 8 0. 0, 1 4. 3, 4 6 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5 0 7), (' Ki', 1 2 3. 8), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 9), (' g 0', 3 9 9. 1 3), (' g _ m a x', 6 5 1. 8 8), (' K _r u n', 1 1. 7), (' P _ m a x', 3 8 3. 7 8)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 6 9 A bs Err: 1 1 5 4 4 0 4. 9 7 K G E: 0. 7 0 8 N S _r el: - 2 8 2. 1 5 8 N S: 0. 4 7 5 R M S E: 1 4 5 0 8 1 5. 5 3 7 N S _l o g: 0. 1 4 2

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 3: 4 4: 5 7. 7 5 8 0 0 0 9. 3. 6. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 7 5 9), (' Ki', 1 4 2. 3 2 5), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 7 4 3), (' g 0', 4 1 8. 6 9 6), (' g _ m a x', 5 9 4. 3 6 1), (' K _r u n', 1 1. 5 3 8), (' P _ m a x', 3 9 6. 8 0 1)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 3 1 A bs Err: 7 5 0 0 7 9. 0 K G E: 0. 7 3 4 N S _r el: - 2 6 5. 5 0 5 N S: 0. 4 5 3 R M S E: 9 5 7 6 6 1. 6 1 4 N S _l o g: 0. 2 8 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A83

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A84

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 6. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A85

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 3. 6. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A86

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 3. 6. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: [ 1. 7 4 8, 1 3 9. 0 4 6, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 5 4, 3 7 1. 2 2 7, 5 8 8. 9 3 6, 1 0. 2 5 4, 4 0 2. 3 4 5] : [ 6 2 1 1 0 2. 7 5 5, : [ 1. 8, 1 3 5. 3 5 9, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 3 7, 4 2 5. 6 2 7, 5 8 1. 0 9 8, 1 2. 2 2 9, 3 6 9. 2 9] : [ 2 3 7 1 2 3 2. 8 3 6, : [ 1. 7 6 2, 1 3 6. 4 5 1, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7, 4 1 8. 2 2 3, 5 8 7. 0 7, 1 3. 0 2 9, 3 9 6. 2 7] : [ 6 7 4 7 1 6. 6 1 9, : [ 1. 7 4 7, 1 4 4. 1 2 4, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 8, 4 2 3. 5 3 1, 6 1 4. 3 6 2, 1 1. 0 7 3, 4 0 2. 2 5 9] : [ 8 1 6 7 3 2. 3 2, : [ 1. 7 9 9, 1 3 9. 5 3 1, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 9 5, 3 9 5. 0 8 7, 6 0 4. 1 0 1, 1 0. 3 8 3, 3 9 8. 0 1 7] : [ 1 1 7 2 6 3 2. 6 2 1, : [ 1. 7 6 3, 1 4 3. 6 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 4 9, 4 2 3. 5 6 6, 5 9 0. 4 8 1, 1 2. 4 9 5, 3 9 8. 5 0 5] : [ 1 9 2 7 2 4 6. 2 9 4, : [ 1. 7 5 9, 1 4 2. 3 2 5, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 4 3, 4 1 8. 6 9 6, 5 9 4. 3 6 1, 1 1. 5 3 8, 3 9 6. 8 0 1] : [ 7 5 0 0 7 9. 0, : [ 1. 7 9 7, 1 3 6. 8 0 7, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 8, 4 2 6. 6 8 6, 5 8 6. 7 1 8, 1 3. 2 2 3, 3 9 7. 6 8 5] : [ 1 3 7 1 8 6 6. 9 0 3, : [ 1. 8, 1 4 0. 8 1 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 8 2, 3 5 4. 5 7 2, 5 8 6. 3 3 6, 1 1. 0 1 6, 3 8 4. 0 7 2] : [ 8 3 2 8 1 7. 8 7 7, : [ 1. 8, 1 3 4. 8 4 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7, 4 1 6. 9 2 4, 5 8 1. 3 1 2, 1 2. 4 7 3, 3 7 4. 6 9 7] : [ 1 8 5 3 3 2 4. 6 5 9, : [ 1. 7 8 2, 1 4 0. 8 7 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 6 2, 4 2 3. 1 8 5, 5 8 3. 7 7 4, 1 2. 4 5 1, 3 7 1. 4 1 5] : [ 2 1 4 1 4 5 0. 3 3 7, : [ 1. 5 9 3, 1 3 7. 0 4 9, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 8, 4 1 0. 1 0 8, 5 8 6. 7 7 9, 1 0. 8 4, 3 9 7. 7 9 1] : [ 5 5 5 7 5 0. 8 1 4, : [ 1. 7 8 5, 1 4 1. 6 9 2, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 7 3, 3 9 5. 0 9 2, 5 8 9. 2 4 6, 1 1. 6 1 8, 3 9 6. 2 4 4] : [ 1 4 6 5 0 4 9. 6 3 5, : [ 1. 7 9 3, 1 3 7. 7 3 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 9 2, 4 2 3. 4 1 8, 5 8 5. 6 2, 1 2. 5 1 2, 3 9 9. 2 9] : [ 7 9 0 2 0 1. 8 6 3, : [ 1. 7 8 7, 1 4 3. 3 4 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 0 2, 4 1 3. 5 1 1, 5 9 1. 4 3, 1 2. 3 1, 3 9 6. 9 8 4] : [ 1 5 7 2 3 8 8. 7 7 4, : [ 1. 8, 1 3 9. 3 2 7, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0, 3 8 2. 6 1 3, 5 8 5. 7 7 7, 1 2. 9 0 3, 3 9 0. 8 6] : [ 9 5 9 0 9 7. 8 1 5, : [ 1. 7 7 9, 1 4 3. 2 0 1, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 1 5, 4 0 9. 2 0 5, 5 8 9. 9 5 4, 1 1. 6 2, 3 9 7. 6 6 1] : [ 2 0 5 5 9 3 1. 2 0 4, : [ 1. 6 7 1, 1 3 8. 6 0 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 8, 4 1 2. 7 3 1, 5 8 7. 8 8 7, 1 0. 5 9 7, 3 9 6. 1 4 1] : [ 1 4 4 9 2 4 0. 4 7 3, : [ 1. 7 8 7, 1 3 9. 4 6 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 7 9, 4 2 6. 6 1 3, 5 8 8. 0 7 8, 1 3. 0 5 8, 3 9 7. 0 4 4] : [ 1 2 3 1 5 2 0. 2 8 2, : [ 1. 8, 1 4 2. 9 9 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 6 3, 3 9 0. 1 0 7, 5 8 5. 0 3 8, 1 1. 9 8 5, 3 9 5. 9 6 7] : [ 1 6 0 1 0 9 4. 3 1 6, : [ 1. 7 9 7, 1 4 0. 7 8 2, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 5 9, 4 2 4. 6 9 9, 5 8 6. 4 9, 1 1. 3 8 8, 3 8 9. 0 0 4] : [ 1 8 9 8 6 8 8. 4 9 3, : [ 1. 8, 1 4 3. 5 7 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 6, 3 8 4. 4 6 5, 5 8 6. 4 6 5, 1 3. 2 5, 3 9 2. 7 9 6] : [ 2 2 0 7 7 0 0. 1 1 3, : [ 1. 7 7 1, 1 4 1. 5 5 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 9 7, 4 2 3. 6 6 7, 5 9 0. 7 8 5, 1 2. 0 3 2, 3 8 3. 7 0 4] : [ 2 0 1 6 8 0 2. 7 9 9, : [ 1. 7 9 6, 1 4 0. 2 8 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 5 4, 4 1 7. 6 5 6, 5 8 8. 0 0 6, 1 1. 6 7 5, 3 9 6. 7 7 2] : [ 1 5 4 4 9 1 6. 1 4 9,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 2 7] 0. 3 8] 0. 2 7 5] 0. 2 9 1] 0. 3 1 2] 0. 3 6 3] 0. 2 8 8] 0. 3 2 6] 0. 2 9 6] 0. 3 5 2] 0. 3 7 3] 0. 2 4 7] 0. 3 3 5] 0. 2 9] 0. 3 4 3] 0. 3 0 4] 0. 3 6 9] 0. 3 3] 0. 3 2] 0. 3 4 6] 0. 3 6] 0. 3 7 8] 0. 3 6 5] 0. 3 3 9]

A87

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A88

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 4

Fi n al v ersi o n

Br u gs e P ol d ers C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 89

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 4. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 " ( Br u gs e P ol d ers)

9. 4. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( Br u gs e P ol d ers)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A90

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 4. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V02E DE442120

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

91900000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 3- 2 0 0 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 0- 0 9- 2 0 0 8

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 8), (' Ki', 2 2 3. 4 9), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 2. 5 5), (' g 0', 1 7 5. 1 2), (' g _ m a x', 2 0 1. 9 7), (' K _r u n', 3. 1 3), (' P _ m a x', 3 2 4. 2)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 1 %

- 2. 8 %

- 1 7. 2 %

0. 6 2 2

- 0. 2 8 9

0. 6 8 8

N S _l o g

0. 4 9

0. 4 3 2

0. 5 0 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A91

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

N S _r el

- 2 0 6. 0 9 9

- 1 0. 5 8 5

0. 0 2 3

K GE

0. 7 0 3

0. 3 9 3

0. 5 6 7

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 8)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1 0. 1 %

6. 4 %

- 2 4. 9 %

0. 6 2 6

0. 4 8 4

0. 5 9 2

N S _l o g

0. 5 4 6

0. 5 3 1

0. 4 6 8

N S _r el

- 3. 2 7 9

- 0. 6 5 6

- 0. 2 9 3

K GE

0. 7 3 7

0. 6 1 5

0. 5 1 6

9. 4. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 M al d e g e m( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A92

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 M al d e g e m ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A93

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M al d e g e m ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 M al d e g e m ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A94

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M al d e g e m

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A95

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M al d e g e m

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0, st ati o n 4 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M al d e g e m

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A96

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 4. 2

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0" ( Br u gs e P ol d ers)

9. 4. 2. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 ( Br u gs e P ol d ers)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A97

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 4. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V02 HE R426010

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

77300000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 6

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 0 5- 1 9 9 4

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 3 8), (' Ki', 2 1 0. 9 9), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 9 6), (' g 0', 8 8. 4 3), (' g _ m a x', 2 4 6. 0 7), (' K _r u n', 3. 7 1), (' P _ m a x', 3 2 4. 8 9)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 1 %

9 7. 8 %

- 2 7. 6 %

0. 2 1 7

- 3. 9 7 4

0. 6 4 1

N S _l o g

0. 5 9 9

0. 1 3 3

0. 5 6 3

N S _r el

- 0. 3 0 6

- 0. 3 3 7

0. 4 0 4

K GE

0. 6 2 8

- 0. 9 7 4

0. 6 8 4

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 6 - 1 9 9 4)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

2. 4 %

7 5. 7 %

- 2 7. 5 %

0. 3 5 5

- 3. 6 4

0. 5 1 7

N S _l o g

0. 6 0 2

0. 1 9 6

0. 4 7 4

N S _r el

- 7. 2 9 3

- 2 1. 6 0 1

0. 7 8 8

K GE

0. 6 7 9

- 0. 7 1 7

0. 5 7 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A98

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 4. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0, st ati o n 4 2 6 1 0 1 0 2 H erts b er g e b e e k; O ost k a m p( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A99

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0, st ati o n 4 2 6 1 0 1 0 2 H erts b er g e b e e k; O ost k a m p ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0, st ati o n 4 2 6 1 0 1 0 2 H erts b er g e b e e k; O ost k a m p ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A100

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0, st ati o n 4 2 6 1 0 1 0 2 H erts b er g e b e e k; O ost k a m p ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A101

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0, st ati o n 4 2 6 1 0 1 0 2 - H erts b er g e b e e k; O ost k a m p

9. 4. 3

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0 " ( Br u gs e P ol d ers)

9. 4. 3. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0 ( Br u gs e P ol d ers)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A102

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 4. 3. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V02KE R422030

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

62700000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 9

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 7 7), (' Ki', 4 7. 4 7), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 1. 6 8), (' g 0', 1 8 2. 8 2), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 1. 4 9), (' K _r u n', 0. 9 6), (' P _ m a x', 5 9 0. 1 2)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 6. 1 %

6 5. 0 %

- 3 4. 1 %

0. 5 9 4

0. 2 7 2

0. 5 7 5

N S _l o g

0. 5 4

0. 4 2 9

0. 4 2 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A103

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

N S _r el

- 2. 6 6 5

0. 5 8 7

- 2 3. 8 9 2

K GE

0. 7 6 2

0. 0 8

0. 4 4 2

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 9 - 1 9 9 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

3. 3 %

4 1. 7 %

- 1 2. 6 %

0. 3 1 1

- 0. 3 5 7

0. 2 7 1

N S _l o g

0. 3 9 9

- 0. 3 2 9

0. 2 6 4

N S _r el

- 2. 1 8 1

- 4. 5 9 5

- 0. 3 7 6

K GE

0. 3 9 1

0. 1 6 9

0. 2 8 8

9. 4. 3. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 2 2 0 1 0 2 - K er k e b e e k, Si nt- Mi c hi el s( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A104

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 2 2 0 1 0 2 K er k e b e e k, Si nt- Mi c hi els ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A105

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 2 2 0 1 0 2 - K er k e b e e k, Si nt- Mi c hi el s ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 2 2 0 1 0 2 K er k e b e e k, Si nt- Mi c hi els ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A106

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 2 2 0 1 0 2 - K er k e b e e k, Si nt- Mi c hi els

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A107

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0, st ati o n 4 2 2 0 1 0 2 - K er k e b e e k, Si nt- Mi c hi els

9. 4. 4

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0 " ( Br u gs e P ol d ers)

9. 4. 4. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0 ( Br u gs e P ol d ers)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A108

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 4. 4. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

64000000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 5

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 2 4 5. 2 8), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 1. 1 2), (' g 0', 1 9 1. 2 7), (' g _ m a x', 8 1 2. 0 6), (' K _r u n', 4. 8 6), (' P _ m a x', 4 6 8. 7)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 2. 2 %

6 7. 8 %

- 3 1. 6 %

- 0. 0 5 8

- 3. 9 9

0. 6 3 9

N S _l o g

0. 6 4 8

0. 0 9 8

0. 6 0 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A109

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

N S _r el

- 2. 5 9 2

0. 4 3 6

0. 8 7 3

K GE

0. 5 1 8

- 0. 7 3 9

0. 5 9 6

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 6 %

9 7. 0 %

- 2 6. 6 %

0. 1 4 6

- 0. 5 0 2

0. 3 0 1

N S _l o g

0. 3 6 2

- 0. 2 9 8

0. 2 8 7

N S _r el

- 6. 1 5 9

- 1 8. 2 6 6

0. 6 0 2

K GE

0. 5 9 7

0. 1 7 2

0. 5 3 6

9. 4. 4. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0, st ati o n 4 2 5 1 0 1 0 2- Ri vi er b e e k; O ost k a m p( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A110

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0, st ati o n 4 2 5 1 0 1 0 2Ri vi er b e e k; O ost k a m p ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A111

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0, st ati o n 4 2 5 1 0 1 0 2- Ri vi er b e e k; O ost k a m p ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0, st ati o n 4 2 5 1 0 1 0 2Ri vi er b e e k; O ost k a m p ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A112

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0, st ati o n 4 2 5 1 0 1 0 2- Ri vi er b e e k; O ost k a m p

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A113

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 5

A 114

Br u gs e P ol d ers - A ut o c ali br ati o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 2 E D E 4 4 2 1 2 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 2 2- 5 7)

9. 5. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A115

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V02E DE442120

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

91900000

st art _ d at e

200905010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 1 3 0. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0, 1 7 0. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 2. 5, 3 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 2, 1 0 4. 0, 0. 0 0 0 8, 0. 8, 1 3 6. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 2. 0, 2 4 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 8, 2 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 3 6 0. 0, 5. 0, 3 7 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 1 3 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 0), (' g 0', 1 7 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 2. 5), (' P _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:     

R el Err: - 0. 2 3 1 A bs Err: 9 0 7 5 6 1 9. 4 9 9 K G E: 0. 4 9 5 N S _r el: - 1 6 7. 3 0 6 N S: 0. 5 8 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A116

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

 

R M S E: 1 1 6 5 8 1 4 1. 7 4 4 N S _l o g: 0. 4 5 3

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 6: 3 6: 4 7. 2 3 1 0 0 0 9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 8), (' Ki', 2 2 3. 4 8 9), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 2. 5 5 4), (' g 0', 1 7 5. 1 1 9), (' g _ m a x', 2 0 1. 9 6 6), (' K _r u n', 3. 1 2 5), (' P _ m a x', 3 2 4. 2 0 3)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 5 1 A bs Err: 4 2 0 4 3 3 8. 9 0 1 K G E: 0. 7 0 3 N S _r el: - 2 0 6. 0 9 9 N S: 0. 6 2 2 R M S E: 5 2 7 3 5 9 9. 8 3 N S _l o g: 0. 4 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A117

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A118

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A119

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A120

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A121

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: [ 1. 6 0 3, 2 2 5. 9 0 1, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 4 7 8, 1 7 6. 9 1 6, 2 0 3. 2 6 3, 4. 0 3 6, 2 6 7. 4 1 2] : [ 3 2 2 4 9 5 7. 4 7, : [ 1. 7 9 8, 2 0 8. 5 3 4, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 6 5 6, 1 7 3. 8 2 9, 2 6 2. 8 8 9, 2. 4 0 4, 3 2 5. 1 1 8] : [ 4 0 0 0 0 1 4. 7 7 3, : [ 1. 7 9 5, 2 2 6. 1 6 7, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 5 0 8, 1 7 3. 6 5 7, 2 1 3. 1, 3. 2 7 9, 3 0 9. 6 0 9] : [ 4 1 2 9 7 0 0. 0 5 7, : [ 1. 8, 2 2 3. 4 8 9, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 5 5 4, 1 7 5. 1 1 9, 2 0 1. 9 6 6, 3. 1 2 5, 3 2 4. 2 0 3] : [ 4 2 0 4 3 3 8. 9 0 1, : [ 1. 2, 2 2 5. 7 6 4, 0. 0 0 1, 2. 4 9 5, 1 7 8. 0 2 2, 2 3 3. 8 6 8, 4. 0 9 8, 2 6 6. 8 8 1] : [ 2 9 6 8 9 1 3. 4 3 9, : [ 1. 7, 2 1 9. 3 4 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 7 3 3, 1 7 7. 1 5 6, 2 1 8. 8 8 8, 2. 1 6 2, 2 8 9. 3 1 2] : [ 9 0 6 2 6 3 3. 7 1 8, : [ 1. 5 8 7, 2 1 6. 9 4 1, 0. 0 0 3, 3. 0, 1 7 6. 2 5, 2 1 9. 3 7 9, 2. 0, 3 0 9. 5 6 6] : [ 3 4 5 6 7 5 8. 7 2 7, : [ 1. 8, 1 8 9. 0 3 1, 0. 0 0 2, 3. 0, 1 7 7. 3, 2 1 2. 8 3, 2. 8 8, 3 1 0. 8 3 6] : [ 8 4 2 9 1 6 4. 2 4 6, : [ 1. 6 8 6, 2 1 8. 7 6 6, 0. 0 0 2, 3. 0, 1 7 7. 6 7 4, 2 2 4. 1 4 5, 2. 1 9 7, 3 0 0. 2 9 2] : [ 6 7 1 3 8 2 1. 9 4 8, : [ 1. 8, 2 2 5. 0 6 2, 0. 0 0 1, 3. 0, 1 7 6. 2 6 6, 2 4 7. 4 6 4, 2. 0, 3 0 6. 4 9 1] : [ 9 0 5 3 3 3 1. 1 1 4, : [ 1. 5 5, 2 1 9. 6 7 5, 0. 0 0 1, 2. 4 8 9, 1 7 7. 7 5 8, 2 2 2. 9 3 4, 2. 4 4 3, 2 8 2. 9 6 2] : [ 7 1 2 9 0 6 4. 7 8 6, : [ 1. 5 0 3, 2 1 7. 4 9 3, 0. 0 0 1, 3. 0, 1 7 5. 6 9 3, 2 2 1. 4 9 2, 2. 0, 3 0 1. 3 3 6] : [ 9 7 6 0 3 3 8. 3 6 7, : [ 1. 8, 2 2 5. 3 7 1, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 8, 1 7 6. 4 9 3, 2 1 6. 7 6 4, 2. 2 8 2, 2 7 3. 0 6 7] : [ 4 6 4 1 8 5 4. 2 9, : [ 1. 5 7 4, 2 0 6. 2 2 3, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 3 2, 1 7 7. 9 2 8, 2 0 9. 5 2, 2. 8 7 4, 3 0 8. 7 5 7] : [ 1 1 0 0 1 3 2 0. 6 7 5, : [ 1. 8, 2 2 5. 0 8, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 5 4 7, 1 7 5. 0 2 9, 2 1 8. 1 3 9, 3. 1 7 3, 3 0 7. 7 5] : [ 5 5 8 1 0 2 6. 0 4 5, : [ 1. 8, 2 0 5. 1 9 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 9 7 3, 1 7 7. 0 9 1, 2 1 0. 7 0 4, 2. 4 6, 3 0 6. 0 8 6] : [ 1 0 5 9 9 3 1 9. 0 2 3, : [ 1. 8, 2 2 3. 2 5 1, 0. 0 0 2, 3. 0, 1 7 7. 9 2 9, 2 3 1. 0 8 2, 3. 2 5 7, 2 7 2. 8 5 2] : [ 8 2 9 5 1 6 7. 9 9 4, : [ 1. 8, 2 2 2. 9 8 9, 0. 0 0 2, 3. 0, 1 7 5. 9 9 1, 2 1 7. 8 5, 2. 9 8 9, 3 0 8. 0 0 7] : [ 7 4 0 4 3 5 2. 8 3 2,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 4 0 5] 0. 4 2] 0. 4 7 7] 0. 4 9] 0. 3 3] 0. 5 5 1] 0. 4 1 6] 0. 5 3 7] 0. 5 1 6] 0. 5 4] 0. 5 1 6] 0. 5 5 6] 0. 4 9 3] 0. 5 5 8] 0. 5 0 7] 0. 5 5 8] 0. 5 3 5] 0. 5 3 3]

A122

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 2 H E R 4 2 6 0 1 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 5 1 7- 5 9)

9. 5. 2. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A123

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V02 HE R426010

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

77300000

st art _ d at e

200001010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A124

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 2 0 0. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8, 8 8. 0, 3 1 0. 0, 3. 6, 3 8 3. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 9, 1 2 4. 0, 0. 0 0 0 6, 0. 4 8, 5 2. 8, 1 8 6. 0, 1. 5, 2 3 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 8, 2 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 0. 9 6, 1 5 0. 0, 4 0 0. 0, 5. 4, 4 6 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 2 0 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 8), (' g 0', 8 8. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 1 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 3. 6), (' P _ m a x', 3 8 3. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 1 5 6 A bs Err: 2 1 8 3 2 0 9 9. 2 9 K G E: 0. 6 3 8 N S _r el: - 0. 0 0 8 N S: 0. 2 6 3 R M S E: 2 2 8 8 9 2 5 6. 7 9 5 N S _l o g: 0. 6 2

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 d a y, 0: 4 6: 5 4. 4 4 7 0 0 0 9. 5. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 3 8 3), (' Ki', 2 1 0. 9 9 4), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 9 6), (' g 0', 8 6. 4 3 6), (' g _ m a x', 2 4 6. 0 7 4), (' K _r u n', 3. 7 1 5), (' P _ m a x', 3 2 4. 8 9 4)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 5 1 A bs Err: 7 9 5 6 2 9 1. 3 5 2 K G E: 0. 6 2 8 N S _r el: - 0. 3 0 6 N S: 0. 2 1 7 R M S E: 9 1 8 5 9 0 2. 8 8 8 N S _l o g: 0. 5 9 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A125

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A126

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A127

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A128

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 2. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: : : : : : : : : :

[ 1. 3 5, 2 1 1. 0 7 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 6 8, 1 1 1. 1 6 2, 2 6 7. 6 7 8, 2. 8 4 3, 3 3 6. 2 3 4] : [ 7 3 5 3 5 0 4. 3 6 6, [ 1. 2 9 5, 1 5 2. 4 8 3, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 8 2, 9 4. 3 3, 2 9 0. 7 4, 3. 0 9 4, 3 7 4. 2 2 1] : [ 2 7 8 4 9 2 1 4. 2 5, [ 1. 4 1 7, 1 8 6. 3 0 6, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 9 5, 9 4. 6 4 1, 2 5 8. 3 0 9, 2. 8 9 9, 3 5 1. 1 3 2] : [ 1 6 5 6 0 2 7 9. 9 5 5, [ 1. 4 7 5, 1 8 6. 1 3 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 6, 1 0 0. 6 5 8, 2 7 4. 4 1 3, 1. 8 1 8, 3 0 4. 3 8] : [ 1 4 9 0 9 1 2 1. 0 9 1, [ 1. 4 2 7, 1 8 0. 9 1 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 9 4, 9 5. 6 4 6, 2 5 7. 0 2 3, 3. 7 3 1, 3 7 2. 3 5] : [ 2 3 0 6 7 9 0 8. 6 6 5, [ 1. 4 2 9, 1 7 4. 6 0 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 9 4, 1 0 0. 2 8 1, 2 6 6. 1 4 4, 3. 0 9, 3 7 1. 4 8 7] : [ 1 8 4 0 4 5 2 0. 7 3 6, [ 1. 4 4, 1 8 3. 3 6 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 0 2, 9 5. 6 4 2, 2 6 1. 4 9 6, 2. 4 2 1, 3 2 4. 6 6] : [ 1 4 9 6 9 9 8 4. 5 2 1, [ 1. 3 3 5, 2 0 0. 9 8 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 0 8, 8 8. 8 0 8, 2 4 6. 1 4 6, 2. 9 1, 2 9 6. 2 1 6] : [ 1 0 9 2 5 2 0 2. 7 2 1, [ 1. 3 6 2, 2 0 2. 5 2 9, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 6, 8 7. 2 8 5, 2 7 0. 7 3 6, 2. 1 7 5, 3 3 7. 1 6 1] : [ 7 4 2 6 7 0 0. 7 2 4, [ 1. 3 8 3, 2 1 0. 9 9 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 6, 8 6. 4 3 6, 2 4 6. 0 7 4, 3. 7 1 5, 3 2 4. 8 9 4] : [ 7 9 5 6 2 9 1. 3 5 2, : [ 1. 4 1 9, 1 7 8. 1 0 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5 1, 9 8. 4 9, 2 5 8. 1 8, 3. 0 4 1, 3 5 7. 0 7 6] : [ 1 7 4 7 9 3 0 7. 4 2 2, : [ 1. 4 2 9, 1 8 3. 1 4 6, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 0 4, 9 4. 8 2 6, 2 5 9. 3 4 3, 3. 3 6 5, 3 2 7. 8 9 1] : [ 1 7 5 2 2 6 4 9. 4 8 7, : [ 1. 3 4 8, 1 7 4. 6 8 3, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 9, 9 6. 7 9 9, 2 5 6. 9 6 2, 3. 0 2 3, 3 6 2. 3 1 2] : [ 1 8 4 0 6 8 2 6. 5 7 7, : [ 1. 4 3 4, 1 7 8. 1 8 9, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 6, 9 8. 8 4, 2 7 2. 6 0 2, 1. 7 4 8, 3 4 4. 2 1 3] : [ 1 9 7 9 1 7 3 4. 1 4 6, : [ 1. 4 2 7, 1 8 2. 3 0 5, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 4 8, 9 7. 0 5 4, 2 5 7. 0 2 3, 3. 6 4 5, 3 7 2. 3 5] : [ 2 2 8 7 9 9 5 7. 7 9 9, : [ 1. 4 3, 1 8 1. 8 6 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 9 2, 1 0 0. 2 6, 2 5 7. 8 5 9, 1. 5, 3 6 4. 9 1 7] : [ 1 6 1 0 9 8 6 0. 2 4 9, : [ 1. 4 4, 1 8 2. 5 0 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 4 8, 9 7. 8 5, 2 6 0. 9 8 2, 1. 5, 3 3 1. 5 7 6] : [ 1 3 7 4 6 6 9 2. 3 6 4, : [ 1. 4 3 4, 1 8 4. 4 6 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 9 7, 9 6. 9 2 5, 2 6 7. 5 2 9, 2. 9 0 4, 3 5 3. 7 3 6] : [ 2 1 5 4 0 3 5 5. 8 7 8, : [ 1. 3 6 6, 2 0 9. 6 6 2, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5 9 6, 9 6. 5 6, 2 5 8. 3 1 4, 3. 0 4 8, 3 7 4. 7 0 8] : [ 1 1 5 8 8 1 8 5. 7 2 7, : [ 1. 4 3 8, 1 8 1. 9 6 2, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 5 3, 9 7. 1 6 4, 2 6 1. 6 7 5, 1. 8 1 3, 3 3 5. 8 7 3] : [ 1 5 4 9 5 5 0 0. 5 8 9,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 5 6 9] 0. 6 3] 0. 6 2 1] 0. 6 1 6] 0. 6 2 9] 0. 6 2 2] 0. 6 1 7] 0. 6 1 2] 0. 5 7 2] 0. 5 9 9] 0. 6 2 2] 0. 6 2 2] 0. 6 2 4] 0. 6 2 6] 0. 6 2 9] 0. 6 2 1] 0. 6 1 5] 0. 6 2 8] 0. 6 1 3] 0. 6 1 9]

A129

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A130

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 2 K E R 4 2 2 0 3 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 0 3- 1 0)

9. 5. 3. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 3. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A131

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V02KE R422030

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

62700000

st art _ d at e

200301010000

e n d _ d at e

200712310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 3. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 4 0. 0, 0. 0 0 1 3, 1. 4, 1 9 0. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 1. 2, 6 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 2, 3 2. 0, 0. 0 0 0 1, 1. 1 2, 1 5 2. 0, 2 4 0. 0, 0. 9 6, 4 8 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 8, 4 8. 0, 0. 0 0 1 6, 1. 6 8, 2 2 8. 0, 3 6 0. 0, 1. 4 4, 7 2 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 4 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1 3), (' Kss', 1. 4), (' g 0', 1 9 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 1. 2), (' P _ m a x', 6 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 0 2 A bs Err: 1 8 5 3 6 8 9. 8 5 5 K G E: 0. 6 9 7 N S _r el: - 3. 9 6 4 N S: 0. 6 0 1 R M S E: 2 3 7 7 2 7 3. 3 7 8 N S _l o g: 0. 4 1 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A132

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 9: 5 2: 4 5. 0 7 0 0 0 0 9. 5. 3. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 7 6 8), (' Ki', 4 7. 4 7 3), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 6 8), (' g 0', 1 8 2. 8 1 8), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 1. 4 8 8), (' K _r u n', 0. 9 6), (' P _ m a x', 5 9 0. 1 1 5)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 6 1 A bs Err: 2 5 0 8 0 1 8. 6 4 1 K G E: 0. 7 6 2 N S _r el: - 2. 6 6 5 N S: 0. 5 9 4 R M S E: 2 7 3 6 0 2 8. 5 3 2 N S _l o g: 0. 5 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A133

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A134

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A135

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A136

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A137

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 5 7 3, 4 5. 4 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 6 3, 1 8 3. 6 2 5, 2 5 4. 4 9 5, 1. 3 7 9, 5 6 1. 4 6 5] : [ 8 6 5 5 1 5 7. 5 2 5, [ 1. 8, 4 6. 1 8 7, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 8, 1 7 9. 4 3 5, 2 8 0. 8 1 2, 1. 1 5 7, 5 8 9. 1 2 4] : [ 7 4 5 5 5 3 6. 4 1 7, [ 1. 5 9 2, 4 4. 9 1 7, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 6 5, 1 8 4. 2 1 7, 2 7 5. 2 6, 0. 9 6, 5 8 4. 4 0 8] : [ 3 2 3 2 9 2 4. 9 3 8, [ 1. 7 8 6, 4 4. 1 1 9, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 2 6 3, 1 9 2. 5 0 3, 2 9 0. 4 4 9, 0. 9 6, 6 1 7. 3 0 5] : [ 1 6 5 1 0 1 6. 1 6, [ 1. 6 3 3, 4 4. 8 2 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 2, 1 8 4. 0 4 3, 2 8 0. 9 8 6, 0. 9 6, 5 8 4. 1 6] : [ 3 5 7 2 6 8 1. 4 3 3, [ 1. 6 1 8, 4 5. 8 9 7, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 3 7, 1 8 6. 1 6 7, 2 6 1. 3 0 7, 0. 9 6, 6 8 6. 5 1 3] : [ 5 6 7 2 5 8 0. 4 1 3, [ 1. 8, 4 4. 7 6 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 4 3, 1 8 4. 0 0 4, 3 0 0. 6 2 6, 0. 9 6, 6 1 2. 0 1 8] : [ 6 0 1 1 2 7 3. 2 4, [ 1. 8, 4 1. 4 5 3, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 3 3 1, 2 0 1. 4 3 7, 3 3 4. 8 9 7, 1. 2 1 4, 5 9 1. 8 0 3] : [ 1 5 3 7 4 0 0. 8 5 2, [ 1. 7 1 6, 4 3. 8 8 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 2 4, 2 0 3. 8 0 9, 2 9 2. 0 1 5, 0. 9 6, 6 1 2. 4 5 3] : [ 5 5 4 7 0 5 5. 5 7 6, [ 1. 8, 4 4. 9 9 7, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 2 7 3, 1 9 0. 0 2 7, 2 7 6. 9 3 7, 1. 0 2 3, 5 8 4. 2 9 1] : [ 1 7 8 4 1 7 6. 6 6 1, : [ 1. 7 8, 4 7. 4 0 4, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 6, 1 7 8. 7 8 9, 2 7 4. 6 1 5, 0. 9 9 5, 6 0 8. 0 6] : [ 6 0 8 8 5 4 7. 0 3 3, : [ 1. 6 9 7, 4 6. 3 2 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 9 5, 1 8 0. 4 0 8, 2 7 8. 4 8 7, 0. 9 6, 6 3 8. 4 5 2] : [ 4 9 5 8 4 4 0. 5 4 5, : [ 1. 8, 4 8. 0, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 1 2, 1 7 9. 0 5 1, 2 8 2. 0 3 6, 1. 1 3 1, 5 9 7. 6 3 4] : [ 1 9 2 8 3 2 8. 6 7 3, : [ 1. 7 1 4, 4 3. 1 7 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 8, 1 9 8. 6 5 9, 2 8 5. 2 7 9, 0. 9 6, 5 9 3. 3 1 3] : [ 4 3 1 7 0 0 5. 8 5 9, : [ 1. 7 4 3, 4 7. 3 4 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 4 7 1, 1 8 4. 4 8 1, 2 8 2. 2 4 8, 1. 0 0 4, 5 9 2. 6 3 5] : [ 2 2 9 2 1 0 0. 9 3 6, : [ 1. 8, 4 6. 9 8 9, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 2, 1 7 8. 9 1 5, 2 8 2. 0 2, 1. 1 3 5, 5 9 1. 4 9 5] : [ 6 2 0 7 8 3 8. 7 2 4, : [ 1. 7 8 6, 4 5. 7 5 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 4 3, 1 9 9. 5 0 8, 2 8 4. 5 4 8, 0. 9 6, 6 2 5. 1 6 5] : [ 4 3 2 1 2 3 7. 5 1 4, : [ 1. 7 2 1, 4 4. 6 7, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 8, 2 0 1. 4 2 7, 2 8 6. 4 9 1, 0. 9 6 1, 6 0 8. 6 6] : [ 5 6 6 8 8 4 8. 5 5 5, : [ 1. 7 9 3, 4 5. 7 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 2, 1 7 9. 5 0 1, 2 8 3. 1 4, 1. 0 2, 5 9 1. 2 2 9] : [ 6 3 5 3 0 6 8. 5 6, : [ 1. 8, 4 5. 5 0 7, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 3 3, 2 0 0. 5 3 8, 3 0 7. 0 7 4, 0. 9 6, 5 9 2. 8 5 6] : [ 3 7 4 3 8 0 6. 3 1 1, : [ 1. 7 0 2, 4 6. 2 1 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 4 2 4, 1 8 0. 1 6 4, 2 7 9. 1 3, 1. 0 8, 6 3 5. 8 5 2] : [ 5 8 0 6 1 9 1. 3 2 3, : [ 1. 7 2 5, 4 6. 5 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3, 1 9 6. 9 8 8, 2 8 2. 6 0 7, 1. 4 4, 5 9 2. 8 8 1] : [ 9 7 4 9 6 4 1. 7 6 4, : [ 1. 7 1 7, 4 5. 5 8 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 4 4, 1 8 3. 8 4 9, 2 7 6. 5 0 5, 0. 9 6, 5 9 1. 1 2 9] : [ 4 8 2 1 0 1 6. 4 3 5, : [ 1. 7 0 4, 4 4. 3 6 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 8, 1 9 3. 4 9 4, 2 8 7. 9 4 6, 0. 9 6, 6 2 8. 9 8] : [ 5 2 8 1 8 0 0. 1 5, : [ 1. 7 5 2, 4 6. 3 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 7 8, 2 1 4. 4 6 5, 2 8 2. 4 7 9, 1. 1 0 2, 6 0 0. 7 4 1] : [ 6 7 4 3 6 5 7. 3 3, : [ 1. 7 6 8, 4 7. 4 7 3, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 8, 1 8 2. 8 1 8, 2 8 1. 4 8 8, 0. 9 6, 5 9 0. 1 1 5] : [ 2 5 0 8 0 1 8. 6 4 1, : [ 1. 7 1 8, 4 4. 7 6 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 0 2, 1 9 6. 7 5 9, 2 8 3. 8 1 3, 1. 2 9 5, 6 0 7. 5 2 5] : [ 8 2 6 7 8 0 2. 6 1, : [ 1. 7 5 2, 4 6. 3 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 7 8, 2 1 4. 4 6 5, 2 8 2. 4 7 9, 1. 2 2 9, 6 0 0. 7 4 1] : [ 7 6 1 5 4 9 4. 5 6 1, : [ 1. 7 1 7, 4 7. 8 3 3, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 7 2, 1 9 5. 7 9 8, 2 8 6. 2 0 2, 1. 1 3, 5 9 0. 1 7 4] : [ 6 9 8 5 0 5 9. 3 1 9,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 5 9 4] 0. 5 9] 0. 5 4 3] 0. 4 9 6] 0. 5 4 9] 0. 5 7 6] 0. 5 7 8] 0. 4 4 7] 0. 5 7 3] 0. 5 1 3] 0. 5 8 1] 0. 5 7 1] 0. 5 1 6] 0. 5 5 9] 0. 5 3] 0. 5 8 2] 0. 5 6 4] 0. 5 7 6] 0. 5 8 3] 0. 5 5 4] 0. 5 7 8] 0. 5 9 5] 0. 5 6 9] 0. 5 7 1] 0. 5 8 7] 0. 5 4] 0. 5 9 2] 0. 5 9 1] 0. 5 8 9]

A138

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 4 1 3- 4 0)

9. 5. 4. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A139

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 2 RI V 4 2 5 0 2 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

64000000

st art _ d at e

200301010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 4. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A140

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 2 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 5, 1. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 9 5 0. 0, 4. 5, 4 5 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 2, 2 0 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 4, 0. 8, 1 6 0. 0, 7 6 0. 0, 3. 6, 3 6 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 8, 3 0 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 6, 1. 3 5, 2 4 0. 0, 1 1 4 0. 0, 5. 4, 5 4 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 2 5 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 0 5), (' Kss', 1. 0), (' g 0', 2 0 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 9 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 4. 5), (' P _ m a x', 4 5 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 3 3 A bs Err: 2 9 3 2 6 1 8. 8 7 2 K G E: 0. 5 0 8 N S _r el: - 2. 8 7 1 N S: - 0. 0 8 3 R M S E: 3 6 6 3 3 8 2. 4 7 8 N S _l o g: 0. 6 4 2

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 2 2: 0 3: 3 0. 9 8 4 0 0 0 9. 5. 4. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 2 4 5. 2 8 1), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 1 2 4), (' g 0', 1 9 1. 2 7 3), (' g _ m a x', 8 1 2. 0 6 1), (' K _r u n', 4. 8 6 5), (' P _ m a x', 4 6 8. 7 0 9)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 2 2 A bs Err: 2 4 9 0 8 0 3. 1 9 K G E: 0. 5 1 8 N S _r el: - 2. 5 9 2 N S: - 0. 0 5 8 R M S E: 3 1 1 7 1 2 2. 9 1 9 N S _l o g: 0. 6 4 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A141

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A142

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A143

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A144

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 4. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 5 4 3, 2 4 5. 6 2 3, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8, 1 9 0. 7 5 6, 8 1 1. 5 8 9, 3. 7 1 5, 4 6 5. 8 2 7] : [ 5 1 4 1 1 0 7. 1 8, [ 1. 5 3 9, 2 4 9. 2 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 9, 1 9 1. 8 3 8, 8 0 7. 6 7 8, 3. 7 6 8, 4 7 2. 2 4 5] : [ 3 6 0 6 4 2 3. 3 1 5, [ 1. 5 3 9, 2 4 8. 7 8 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 9, 1 9 1. 4 9 4, 8 0 7. 6 7 8, 3. 7 6 8, 4 7 2. 2 4 5] : [ 3 6 3 1 8 0 2. 6 6 3, [ 1. 5 0 4, 2 4 5. 4 6 3, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 0 6, 1 9 1. 8 0 1, 8 3 5. 0 5 5, 4. 2 0 1, 4 6 6. 8 9 5] : [ 2 4 0 2 8 8 2. 3 2 8, [ 1. 5 3 9, 2 4 8. 3 8 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 9, 1 9 2. 7 9 1, 8 0 7. 6 7 8, 3. 7 6 8, 4 7 2. 2 4 5] : [ 3 6 3 8 7 8 9. 3 6 2, [ 1. 4 9 9, 2 4 7. 0 3 3, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 8 1, 1 9 4. 7 2 4, 8 2 2. 0 7 7, 3. 8 3 9, 4 6 7. 3 5 9] : [ 2 4 4 8 1 3 5. 5 3 5, [ 1. 5 8 3, 2 4 5. 3 8 2, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 8 7, 1 9 5. 1 7 6, 8 3 4. 2 1 4, 3. 6 8 3, 4 6 2. 3 8 9] : [ 5 6 8 6 8 0 9. 5 9 9, [ 1. 5, 2 4 5. 2 8 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 2 4, 1 9 1. 2 7 3, 8 1 2. 0 6 1, 4. 8 6 5, 4 6 8. 7 0 9] : [ 2 4 9 0 8 0 3. 1 9, [ 1. 5 2 4, 2 4 5. 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 6 6, 2 0 2. 6 4 2, 8 0 6. 9 4 7, 3. 6, 4 7 5. 8 1 7] : [ 3 1 3 6 7 6 5. 6 2 2, [ 1. 5 4 2, 2 4 6. 0 8 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 5, 1 9 1. 1 1 3, 8 1 0. 5 5, 3. 7 4, 4 7 0. 1 9 6] : [ 3 8 3 0 4 0 6. 0 2 7, : [ 1. 5 3 8, 2 4 6. 7 6, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 1 7, 1 9 1. 8 0 9, 8 1 3. 1 2 1, 4. 2 2 4, 4 6 6. 4 8 1] : [ 3 5 5 6 7 9 0. 9 7 2, : [ 1. 5 1 5, 2 4 5. 9 1 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 5, 1 9 1. 6 3 8, 8 0 9. 4 2 7, 4. 7 1 3, 4 7 1. 7 4] : [ 2 7 9 7 8 6 1. 9 0 1, : [ 1. 5 5 9, 2 4 9. 2 1, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 9, 1 9 1. 5 0 5, 8 1 3. 5 5 6, 3. 9 4 3, 4 6 5. 9 2 8] : [ 4 8 7 4 8 6 2. 9 4 8, : [ 1. 5 3 9, 2 4 9. 2 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 9, 1 9 3. 2 3 1, 8 0 8. 5 2 7, 4. 5 7 2, 4 7 1. 9 1 3] : [ 3 5 3 3 5 7 9. 9 0 2, : [ 1. 5 0 9, 2 4 8. 5 8 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8, 1 9 1. 5 1 7, 8 1 0. 4 3 6, 3. 7 6 2, 4 6 9. 9 7 9] : [ 2 6 9 1 6 7 2. 3 0 1, : [ 1. 5 3 8, 2 4 7. 2 1 3, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 1 5, 1 9 0. 7 8 3, 8 0 8. 8 5 8, 4. 2 3 9, 4 7 0. 9 9] : [ 3 6 5 4 1 8 9. 5 3 9, : [ 1. 5 3 7, 2 4 9. 4 0 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 5, 1 9 2. 2 2, 8 0 6. 7 6 9, 4. 1 7 9, 4 7 6. 6 7 9] : [ 4 4 7 6 9 4 1. 1 4 9, : [ 1. 5 3 5, 2 4 7. 7 2 6, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8, 1 9 2. 1 7 9, 8 0 5. 2 5 4, 4. 4 0 9, 4 8 1. 1 4 7] : [ 4 1 1 5 1 3 2. 6 8, : [ 1. 5 0 7, 2 4 4. 9 9 2, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 4 4, 1 9 1. 4 7 7, 8 1 1. 9 8, 4. 0 9 7, 4 7 0. 2 5 4] : [ 2 6 1 3 0 9 5. 4,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 5 8] 0. 6 5 5] 0. 6 5 5] 0. 6 4 3] 0. 6 5 5] 0. 6 4 6] 0. 6 5 9] 0. 6 4 8] 0. 6 5 3] 0. 6 5 6] 0. 6 5 5] 0. 6 5 1] 0. 6 5 7] 0. 6 5 4] 0. 6 5] 0. 6 5 5] 0. 6 5 7] 0. 6 5 6] 0. 6 4 9]

A145

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A146

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 6

Fi n al v ersi o n

G e nts e K a n al e n C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 147

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 " ( G e nts e K a n al e n)

9. 5. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 ( G e nt s e K a n al e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A148

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V03P OE446000

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

106800000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 9

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 2. 4), (' Ki', 2 9 3. 9 2), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 7. 3 2), (' g 0', 1 5 4. 8 5), (' g _ m a x', 3 9 0. 9), (' K _r u n', 2. 6), (' P _ m a x', 7 9. 6 2)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 5 - 2 0 0 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 2 %

6 3. 3 %

- 1 3. 7 %

0. 5 0 3

- 7. 0 7 5

0. 7 4 5

N S _l o g

0. 7 7 4

0. 5 9 8

0. 5 4 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A149

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

N S _r el

- 1. 3 2 6

0. 2 0 8

- 3. 4 3 7

K GE

0. 7 4 3

- 1. 4 3 7

0. 6 2 5

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 9 - 1 9 9 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 7 %

- 2 5. 6 %

- 8. 4 %

0. 6 8 5

0. 5 6 9

0. 6 6 8

N S _l o g

0. 7 8 1

0. 6 1 3

0. 6 1

N S _r el

0. 7 6 4

0. 8 8 2

0. 6 1

K GE

0. 6 9

0. 6 1 8

0. 5 8

9. 5. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 4 4 6 5 6 1 2 2 - P o e k e b e e k; N e v el e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A150

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 4 4 6 5 6 1 2 2 P o e k e b e e k; N e v el e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 4 4 6 5 6 1 2 2 - P o e k e b e e k; N e v el e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A151

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 4 4 6 5 6 1 2 2 P o e k e b e e k; N e v el e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A152

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 7

Fi n al v ersi o n

G e nts e K a n al e n A ut o c ali br ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 153

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 3 P O E 4 4 6 0 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 0 2 2- 0 8)

9. 5. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A154

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V03P OE446000

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

106800000

st art _ d at e

199501010000

e n d _ d at e

200012310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 2. 1 0 9, 3 4 0. 0 9, 0. 0 1 8, 6. 2 2 9, 1 4 4. 0 7 4, 3 2 6. 6 9, 2. 2 1 1, 8 6. 1 4 5]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 6, 2 7 2. 1, 0. 0 1 4 4, 4. 9 8, 1 1 5. 2 5, 2 6 1. 3, 1. 7 6, 6 8. 9]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 4, 4 0 8. 0, 0. 0 2, 7. 4 7, 1 7 2. 8, 3 9 2. 0, 2. 6, 1 0 3. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 2. 1 0 9), (' Ki', 3 4 0. 0 9), (' K g', 0. 0 1 8), (' Kss', 6. 2 2 9), (' g 0', 1 4 4. 0 7 4), (' g _ m a x', 3 2 6. 6 9), (' K _r u n', 2. 2 1 1), (' P _ m a x', 8 6. 1 4 5)] I niti al fit n es s:     

R el Err: 0. 1 1 3 A bs Err: 1 0 2 4 4 3 7 8. 2 5 5 K G E: 0. 7 2 7 N S _r el: - 2. 1 2 6 N S: 0. 4 5 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A155

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

 

R M S E: 1 1 7 2 4 8 8 1. 7 3 9 N S _l o g: 0. 7 4 5

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 5: 5 5: 1 1. 9 2 4 0 0 0 9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 2. 3 9 8), (' Ki', 2 9 3. 9 2 1), (' K g', 0. 0 1 4), (' Kss', 7. 3 2 6), (' g 0', 1 5 4. 8 5), (' g _ m a x', 3 9 0. 9 0 6), (' K _r u n', 2. 6), (' P _ m a x', 7 9. 6 2 3)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 2 A bs Err: 3 1 4 2 8 9 1. 5 1 3 K G E: 0. 7 4 3 N S _r el: - 1. 3 2 6 N S: 0. 5 0 3 R M S E: 3 9 6 0 6 1 7. 4 8 6 N S _l o g: 0. 7 7 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A156

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A157

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A158

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A159

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

: : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 2. 4, 2 9 3. 6 4 8, 0. 0 1 4, 6. 1 3 3, 1 5 7. 0, 3 9 0. 9 2, 2. 6, 7 9. 4 5 4] : [ 2. 4, 2 9 9. 1 1 8, 0. 0 1 4, 6. 9 5, 1 3 9. 9 8 4, 3 9 1. 4 3 3, 2. 5 7 6, 7 9. 3 7 5] : [ 2. 4, 2 9 7. 4 4 2, 0. 0 1 4, 7. 1 5, 1 4 0. 3 1 4, 3 9 1. 6 0 4, 2. 6, 7 7. 9 5 4] : [ 2. 4, 2 9 6. 8 4 8, 0. 0 1 4, 6. 7 0 8, 1 5 7. 7 7 7, 3 9 1. 3 8 2, 2. 6, 7 9. 0 8] : [ 2. 4, 2 9 4. 5 4 3, 0. 0 1 4, 6. 2 0 9, 1 5 7. 1, 3 9 2. 0, 2. 6, 7 9. 1 7 6] : [ 2. 3 9 8, 2 9 3. 9 2 1, 0. 0 1 4, 7. 3 2 6, 1 5 4. 8 5, 3 9 0. 9 0 6, 2. 6, 7 9. 6 2 3] : [ 2. 4, 2 9 7. 0 2 9, 0. 0 1 4, 6. 8 6 8, 1 3 9. 7 3 2, 3 9 1. 1 2 2, 2. 6, 7 9. 1 7 8] : [ 2. 4, 2 9 5. 6 1 8, 0. 0 1 4, 6. 8 0 4, 1 5 5. 9 4 7, 3 9 2. 0, 2. 6, 7 7. 6 0 1] : [ 2. 4, 2 9 9. 4 6 2, 0. 0 1 4, 5. 4 8 4, 1 4 5. 0 4 3, 3 9 1. 6 7 8, 2. 5 8 3, 7 8. 8 2 3] :

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

[ 3 1 4 3 9 1 8. 4 7 8, [ 3 1 4 9 2 2 6. 7 5, [ 3 1 4 7 8 9 3. 0 6 4, [ 3 1 4 6 8 0 0. 3 8 9, [ 3 1 4 4 8 9 0. 6 7 2, [ 3 1 4 2 8 9 1. 5 1 3, [ 3 1 4 6 9 8 5. 1 3 2, [ 3 1 4 6 3 1 5. 7 9 8, [ 3 1 4 9 4 6 5. 9 5 4,

0. 7 7 4] 0. 7 7 4] 0. 7 7 4] 0. 7 7 4] 0. 7 7 4] 0. 7 7 4] 0. 7 7 4] 0. 7 7 4] 0. 7 7 4]

A160

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 8

Fi n al v ersi o n

B e n e n d e ns c h el d e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 161

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0" ( B e n e d e ns c h el d e)

9. 5. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 ( B e n e d e ns c h el d e)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A162

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 4 M OL 0 3 6 1 1 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

32600000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 7

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 5 6), (' Ki', 9 5. 4 6), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 1), (' g 0', 6 3. 4 8), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 1. 5 4), (' K _r u n', 6. 6), (' P _ m a x', 9. 9)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 3 %

5 9. 2 %

- 2 3. 5 %

- 0. 0 3

- 6. 3 5 7

0. 1 7 2

N S _l o g

0. 3 4 4

- 0. 4 4 1

0. 1 0 1

N S _r el

- 0. 7 0 3

- 7. 4 8 5

0. 4 9 6

K GE

0. 4 9 6

- 1. 2 3 2

0. 3 9 4

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

5. 5 %

5 4. 8 %

- 1 5. 5 %

- 0. 3 5 3

- 6. 5 7

0. 2 5

N S _l o g

0. 0 6 3

- 1. 1 8

0. 2 3

N S _r el

- 1. 3 7

- 7. 2 3 4

0. 3 9 8

K GE

0. 4 1 6

- 1. 2

0. 6 1 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A163

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0, st ati o n 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0, st ati o n 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A164

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0, st ati o n 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0, st ati o n 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A165

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0, st ati o n 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0, st ati o n 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A166

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0, st ati o n 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e

Fi g ur e 1 0: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0, st ati o n 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e M ol e n b e e k, Li ez el e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A167

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0" ( B e n e d e ns c h el d e)

9. 5. 2. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 ( B e n e d e ns c h el d e)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A168

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V04 M O M037100

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

67300000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 2

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 6

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 7 6), (' Ki', 2 7. 6), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 7 2), (' g 0', 4 3. 2 6), (' g _ m a x', 3 7 7. 4 3), (' K _r u n', 3. 9 2), (' P _ m a x', 4 3 8. 6 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 8 %

2 7. 3 %

- 1 8. 8 %

0. 5 9

0. 3 0 8

0. 4 9 3

N S _l o g

0. 7 0 5

0. 4 8 6

0. 5 3 2

N S _r el

0. 7 0 8

0. 5 6 8

0. 7 3 2

K GE

0. 7 6 5

0. 5 6 7

0. 5 7 4

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 6)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 3. 0 %

3. 5 %

- 7. 7 %

0. 7 7 6

0. 7 0 7

0. 7 0 3

N S _l o g

0. 8 1 6

0. 7 6 1

0. 8 0 1

N S _r el

0. 8

0. 7 7 2

0. 8 6 3

K GE

0. 8 7 6

0. 8 2

0. 8 4 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A169

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0, st ati o n 3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0, st ati o n 3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A170

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0, st ati o n 3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0, st ati o n 3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A171

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0, st ati o n 3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0, st ati o n 3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A172

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0, st ati o n 3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n

Fi g ur e 1 0: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0, st ati o n 3 7 1 0 1 0 2 - Gr ot e M ol e n b e e k, M al d er e n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A173

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 9

A 174

B e n e n d e ns c h el d e A ut o c ali br ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O L 0 3 6 1 1 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 0 1 9- 5 5)

9. 5. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A175

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 4 M OL 0 3 6 1 1 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

32600000

st art _ d at e

200801010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 4 9 9, 1 1 7. 4 5, 0. 0 0 1 4, 2 9 9. 4 4 8, 6. 8, 2 0 4. 1 2]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 0 1, 1. 0, 1 e- 0 5, 0. 1, 1. 0, 3. 0, 0. 1, 1. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 9 5, 1 5 2. 0, 0. 0 0 2 6, 1. 6, 9 1. 0, 4 2 0. 0, 9. 0, 1 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

1. 2 5 3,

7 0. 3 9 3,

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 4 9 9), (' Ki', 1 1 7. 4 5), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1 4), (' Kss', 1. 2 5 3), (' g 0', 7 0. 3 9 3), (' g _ m a x', 2 9 9. 4 4 8), (' K _r u n', 6. 8), (' P _ m a x', 2 0 4. 1 2)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 1 2 8 A bs Err: 3 2 6 7 5 6 4. 5 6 8 K G E: 0. 5 6 9 N S _r el: 0. 6 8 1 N S: 0. 3 6 4 R M S E: 3 7 2 6 7 0 4. 3 2 4 N S _l o g: 0. 6 2 2

CFi on almr pe ut ati o n ti m e: 3: 4 1: 2 6. 3 3 3 0 0 0 p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A176

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 5 6 4), (' Ki', 9 5. 4 6 7), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 0. 1), (' g 0', 6 3. 4 8 1), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 1. 5 4 5), (' K _r u n', 6. 6 5 3), (' P _ m a x', 9. 9 9 6)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 1 3 A bs Err: 1 2 9 1 4 1 9. 9 5 6 K G E: 0. 4 9 6 N S _r el: - 0. 7 0 3 N S: - 0. 0 3 R M S E: 1 5 2 7 2 9 3. 6 7 4 N S _l o g: 0. 3 4 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A177

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A178

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A179

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A180

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 1. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 4 9 9, 1 1 7. 4 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 5 3, 7 0. 3 9 3, 2 9 9. 4 4 8, 6. 8, 2 0 4. 1 2] : [ 3 2 6 7 5 6 4. 5 6 8, 1 : [ 1. 6 6 2, 8 9. 7 2 3, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 6, 6 4. 0 0 2, 2 6 2. 6 0 5, 5. 5 9 8, 1 0. 0] : [ 2 4 7 1 0 0 7. 1 8 1, 2Fi n al r: e p ort[ 1. 9 4, 7 1. 3 7 6, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 6, 5 5. 6W L9 27,0 2 1 R 20 60 _7.1 67 23_3,4- 5 4. 9 1 6, 9. 9 9 4] : [ 1 1 4 6 5 0 9. 6 2 4,

0. 6 2 2] 0. 3 7 9] 0. A2 158 3]1

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

: : : : : : : : :

[ 1. 6 1 2, [ 1. 5 1 7, [ 1. 6 1 9, [ 1. 7 8 1, [ 1. 9 5, [ 1. 6 7 7, [ 1. 6 1 4, [ 1. 7 8, [ 1. 5 6 4,

Fi n al r e p ort

8 1. 8, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 4 3 9, 5 4. 6 3 7, 2 7 3. 2 9 6, 8 7. 1 9 4, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 1, 5 6. 3 4 8, 2 6 2. 2 2 7, 7 9. 7 0 7, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 6 4 5, 5 9. 8 2 7, 2 8 7. 0 9, 7 8. 5 2 9, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 6, 5 3. 2 5, 2 7 2. 3 9, 7 1. 3 7 6, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 6, 5 5. 6 9 7, 2 6 7. 7 3 3, 8 7. 2 6 8, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 1, 5 2. 5 0 4, 2 7 3. 2 8 4, 7 5. 3 9 6, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 3 6 6, 6 2. 5 4 5, 2 7 8. 8 1 7, 7 5. 8 3 8, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 8 8 6, 5 6. 2 0 9, 2 7 9. 8 8 5, 9 5. 4 6 7, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 1, 6 3. 4 8 1, 2 8 1. 5 4 5,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

5. 4 3 4, 5. 9 6 7, 4. 2 2 5, 5. 0 5 3, 4. 9 1 6, 5. 4 7 6, 5. 8 6 7, 5. 9 2 8, 6. 6 5 3,

9. 9 9] 9. 9 9 6] 9. 9 9 6] 1 0. 0] 9. 6 1 1] 1 0. 0] 1 0. 0] 1 0. 0] 9. 9 9 6]

: [ 3 0 4 1 8 6 4. 0 7 8, : [ 2 7 0 2 8 3 4. 5 0 9, : [ 1 1 4 8 0 6 6. 3 2 9, : [ 2 3 2 2 8 4 3. 5 3, : [ 1 1 3 9 5 9 7. 9 2 8, : [ 1 8 6 4 2 8 7. 1 2 9, : [ 3 1 5 9 7 2 2. 1 2 4, : [ 1 6 3 9 1 7 4. 6 7 9, : [ 1 2 9 1 4 1 9. 9 5 6,

0. 4 0 7] 0. 4 0 1] 0. 3 1 7] 0. 3 7] 0. 2 3 7] 0. 3 6 4] 0. 4 1 6] 0. 3 6 1] 0. 3 4 4]

A182

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 4 M O M 0 3 7 1 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 0 2 0- 5 7)

9. 5. 2. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 2. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V04 M O M037100

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A183

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

67300000

st art _ d at e

200901010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 8, 2 9. 0, 0. 0 0 3 5, 0. 9, 4 0. 0, 3 5 0. 0, 4. 5, 4 5 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 4 4, 2 3. 2, 0. 0 0 2 8, 0. 7 2, 3 2. 0, 2 8 0. 0, 3. 6, 3 6 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 2, 3 4. 8, 0. 0 0 4 2, 1. 0 8, 4 8. 0, 4 2 0. 0, 5. 4, 5 4 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 8), (' Ki', 2 9. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3 5), (' Kss', 0. 9), (' g 0', 4 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 4. 5), (' P _ m a x', 4 5 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 5 5 A bs Err: 3 1 4 2 8 7 5. 8 8 K G E: 0. 7 8 7 N S _r el: 0. 6 9 2 N S: 0. 6 2 3 R M S E: 3 8 8 1 1 0 1. 8 9 6 N S _l o g: 0. 6 9 7

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 4: 4 2: 5 4. 3 1 3 0 0 0 9. 5. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 7 6 5), (' Ki', 2 7. 6 1 1), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 0. 7 2), (' g 0', 4 3. 2 6 6), (' g _ m a x', 3 7 7. 4 3 5), (' K _r u n', 3. 9 2 4), (' x', 4 3 8. 6 A1 11)] Fi nPal_ r em paort W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5 84

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 0 8 A bs Err: 2 4 9 4 8 0 1. 0 2 1 K G E: 0. 7 6 5 N S _r el: 0. 7 0 8 N S: 0. 5 9 R M S E: 3 0 9 6 2 4 1. 8 9 5 N S _l o g: 0. 7 0 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A185

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A186

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A187

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A188

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 2. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 7 5 7, 2 9. 6 8 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 7 2, 4 1. 3 8 9, 3 7 7. 2 1 5, 4. 0 1 8, 5 3 2. 0 9 9] : [ 2 5 1 6 3 3 6. 6 9 7, 0. 7 0 6] 1 : [ 1. 7 6 5, 2 7. 6 1 1, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 7 2, 4 3. 2 6 6, 3 7 7. 4 3 5, 3. 9 2 4, 4 3 8. 6 1 1] : [ 2 4 9 4 8 0 1. 0 2 1, 0. 7 0 5] 2Fi n al :r e p ort [ 1. 7 8 6, 2 8. 7 5 7, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 7 4, 4 0.W L9 2809,2 1 R 0 30 7_ 15.6 29 _44-9,5 3. 6 5 3, 4 2 9. 3 1 6] : [ 2 4 7 1 5 6 4. 3 9 5, A 0.1 8 7]9

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

: : : : : : :

[ 1. 7 8, [ 1. 7 5 8, [ 1. 7 7 7, [ 1. 7 4 5, [ 1. 7 4 4, [ 1. 7 8 5, [ 1. 7 3 6, : [ 1. 7 5 8, : [ 1. 7 1 2,

Fi n al r e p ort

2 7. 5 9 3, 2 7. 4 3, 2 7. 7 1 7, 2 9. 2 4 8, 3 0. 0 3 8, 2 7. 6 1 7, 2 8. 8 4 9, 2 7. 0 7 7, 2 8. 9 2 1,

0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3,

0. 7 2 7, 4 1. 9 5 4, 3 7 7. 2, 3. 9 2 9, 0. 7 2, 4 0. 8 2 8, 3 7 8. 1 5 3, 3. 9 7 8, 0. 7 4 1, 4 1. 3 7 2, 3 7 5. 3 9 7, 3. 9 5, 0. 7 3 7, 4 1. 5 4 8, 3 7 6. 5 6 9, 3. 8 0 2, 0. 7 3 6, 4 1. 6 3 4, 3 7 6. 3 1 6, 3. 8 3 1, 0. 7 2 3, 4 2. 7 5 2, 3 7 8. 5 3 9, 3. 7 7 3, 0. 7 2 8, 4 1. 7 6 5, 3 7 8. 9 6, 3. 9 6 4, 0. 7 2 6, 3 9. 8 2 2, 3 7 7. 5 4, 3. 9 6 6, 0. 7 7 2, 4 2. 5 3 2, 3 7 7. 2 1 2, 3. 8 0 6,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

4 4 5. 0 7 4] 4 6 3. 8 7 6] 4 2 8. 8 1 7] 4 5 2. 8 6 1] 4 9 4. 1 8] 4 5 0. 8 4 2] 4 5 1. 0 9 3] 4 5 4. 1 3 9] 4 7 2. 9 7 1]

: : : : : : : : :

[ 2 4 8 8 9 5 4. 5 0 8, [ 2 5 0 9 0 5 9. 5 7 7, [ 2 4 9 0 8 7 9. 9 5 1, [ 2 6 0 8 7 3 1. 1 1 8, [ 2 6 1 3 3 4 9. 3 6 5, [ 2 4 7 5 1 6 4. 8 1 4, [ 2 6 3 0 2 3 8. 1 5 3, [ 2 5 0 5 3 8 2. 9 9 5, [ 2 8 4 0 4 9 9. 2 1 9,

0. 7 0 3] 0. 7 0 6] 0. 7 0 3] 0. 7 0 7] 0. 7 0 7] 0. 7 0 2] 0. 7 0 8] 0. 7 0 6] 0. 7 0 8]

A190

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 0

Fi n al v ersi o n

L ei e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 191

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 " ( L ei e b e k k e n)

9. 5. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 ( L ei e b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A192

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V05 HE U403210

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

91900000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 7 5

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 1

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 2. 2), (' Ki', 1 0 1. 9 6), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 4. 8 1), (' g 0', 7 6 2. 6 4), (' g _ m a x', 6 9 0. 8 5), (' K _r u n', 1. 1 4), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 6 2. 8)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 8 %

3 8. 9 %

- 2 2. 7 %

0. 1 9 3

- 1. 2 9 5

0. 3 8 9

N S _l o g

0. 6 2 9

0. 4 4 7

0. 4 6 9

N S _r el

- 3. 0 9 2

- 4. 8 5 1

0. 7 4 2

K GE

0. 6 2 1

0. 0 1 1

0. 6 0 9

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 7 5 - 2 0 0 1)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 1 %

4 7. 4 %

- 1 6. 2 %

0. 3 1 4

- 1. 8 5 4

0. 5 1 2

N S _l o g

0. 6 5 1

0. 3 5 8

0. 5 2 4

N S _r el

- 0. 1 7 7

- 0. 5 4 8

0. 4 1 6

K GE

0. 6 6 4

- 0. 2 2

0. 6 1 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A193

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0, st ati o n 4 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H e ul e b e e k; H e ul e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0, st ati o n 4 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 H e ul e b e e k; H e ul e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A194

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0, st ati o n 4 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H e ul e b e e k; H e ul e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0, st ati o n 4 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 H e ul e b e e k; H e ul e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A195

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0, st ati o n 4 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H e ul e b e e k; H e ul e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0, st ati o n 4 0 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H e ul e b e e k; H e ul e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A196

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0" ( L ei e b e k k e n)

9. 5. 2. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( L ei e b e k k e n)

9. 5. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e Fi n al r e p ort

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1 W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A197

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V05 M A N401230

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

258400000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 7 0

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 7 5

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 2 5), (' Ki', 1 0 4. 8 1), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 6 1), (' g 0', 1 9 3. 6 2), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 6. 5 4), (' K _r u n', 3. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 2. 8 6)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 8 - 1 9 9 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 0 %

2 3. 4 %

- 2 7. 5 %

0. 3 2 9

- 0. 2 1 8

0. 2 5 6

N S _l o g

0. 5 0 8

0. 3

0. 3 7 9

N S _r el

0. 1 0 6

0. 3 2

0. 4 5 5

K GE

0. 4 3

0. 4 0 2

0. 2 4 2

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 5)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

4. 3 %

5 5. 2 %

- 1 7. 4 %

0. 4 0 5

- 3. 0 7 8

0. 3 4 7

N S _l o g

0. 5 4 9

- 0. 4 2 2

0. 4 3 3

N S _r el

- 0. 1 9 5

- 5. 6 3 7

0. 3 5 5

K GE

0. 4 9 6

- 0. 3 3 1

0. 3 3 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A198

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0, st ati o n 4 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n d el; O ostr oz e b e k e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0, st ati o n 4 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 M a n d el; O ostr oz e b e k e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A199

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0, st ati o n 4 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n d el; O ostr oz e b e k e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0, st ati o n 4 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 M a n d el; O ostr oz e b e k e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A200

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9" ( L ei e b e k k e n)

9. 5. 3. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9 ( L ei e b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A201

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

2981800000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 8

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 5 5), (' Ki', 8 0. 2 5), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 1 9), (' g 0', 1 5 7. 0), (' g _ m a x', 4 4 2. 1), (' K _r u n', 3. 4), (' P _ m a x', 1 9 6. 5)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 8 %

- 3. 0 %

- 7. 8 %

0. 4 5 7

- 0. 1 6

0. 5 7 3

N S _l o g

0. 6 0 7

0. 2 7

0. 5 5 9

N S _r el

0. 6 6 3

0. 5 4 4

0. 6 8 3

K GE

0. 7 3 2

0. 4 2 5

0. 7 6 7

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 5 %

4. 4 %

- 7. 0 %

0. 4 2 6

- 1. 5 3

0. 3 4 9

N S _l o g

0. 7 2 8

0. 3 2 8

0. 4 6 4

N S _r el

0. 7 3 8

0. 5 8 9

0. 6 3 7

K GE

0. 7 1 6

- 0. 2 0 2

0. 6 8 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A202

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9, st ati o n u n k o w n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9, st ati o n u n k o w n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A203

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A204

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9, st ati o n u n k o w n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A205

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 1

A 206

L ei e A ut o c ali br ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 5 H E U 4 0 3 2 1 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 3 2 0- 1 8)

9. 5. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A207

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V05 HE U403210

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

91900000

st art _ d at e

200201010000

e n d _ d at e

200712310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 8 0. 0, 0. 0 0 2 3, 1. 0, 1 7 0. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 4. 7, 6 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 0 1, 1. 0, 1 e- 0 5, 0. 1, 1. 0, 3. 0, 0. 1, 1. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 5. 0, 1 2 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 6. 0, 1 0 0 0. 0, 1 0 0 0. 0, 5. 0, 2 0 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 8 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2 3), (' Kss', 1. 0), (' g 0', 1 7 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 4. 7), (' P _ m a x', 6 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 3 9 4 A bs Err: 3 4 2 8 7 8 1 1. 3 3 1 K G E: 0. 4 8 2 N S _r el: - 1. 8 9 2 N S: 0. 3 6 9 R M S E: 3 7 7 5 7 3 4 4. 7 2 4 N S _l o g: 0. 6 1 4

CFi on almr pe ut ati o n ti m e: 9: 1 7: 5 0. 7 3 2 0 0 0 p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A208

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 2. 2), (' Ki', 1 0 1. 9 6 4), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 4. 8 1 4), (' g 0', 7 6 2. 6 3 8), (' g _ m a x', 6 9 0. 8 5), (' K _r u n', 1. 1 4), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 6 2. 8 9 9)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 5 8 A bs Err: 5 0 9 0 5 3 0. 4 1 8 K G E: 0. 6 2 1 N S _r el: - 3. 0 9 2 N S: 0. 1 9 3 R M S E: 5 4 1 1 2 4 3. 6 9 9 N S _l o g: 0. 6 2 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A209

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A210

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A211

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A212

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 1. 4. 3 0 1 2

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: [ 2. 5 3 1, 8 4. 8 4 2, 0. 0 1, 4. 6 7 3, 3 5 7. 0 6 7, 6 8 8. 0 1 1, 1. 2 9 9, 9 5 0. 0 3 3] : [ 1 4 5 1 9 7 0 2. 0 8 3, : [ 2. 3 4 4, 6 5. 6 7 1, 0. 0 1, 5. 2 6, 7 5 7. 4 5 4, 6 9 1. 9 3 4, 1. 1 1 6, 1 0 9 4. 8 2 1] : [ 9 4 5 8 6 4 1. 4 3 3, : [ 2. 3 4 6, 6 5. 3 6 3, 0. 0 1, 6. 0, 7 5 5. 0 4 5, 7 3 0. 4 5 6, 0. 9 4 8, 1 6 2 8. 9 8 9] : [ 7 3 1 7 4 9 7. 4 4 9,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 7 2] 0. 6 4 9] 0. 6 3 5] A213

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

: : : : : : :

[ 2. 6 1 1, 8 4. 0 5 8, 0. 0 1, 3. 5 8 5, 4 4 2. 4 6, 7 1 2. 9 5 7, 1. 5 4 9, 8 5 0. 9 9 6] : [ 1 7 2 4 1 6 7 2. 2 4 6, [ 2. 6 1 4, 8 4. 1 7 8, 0. 0 1, 3. 9 3 8, 4 5 5. 3 1, 6 8 1. 5 2, 1. 3 3 7, 9 2 6. 3 0 3] : [ 1 6 5 4 3 3 2 1. 8 6, [ 2. 1 4 3, 7 1. 9 4 3, 0. 0 0 9, 5. 8 7 1, 8 1 6. 1 1 3, 7 3 7. 2 2 8, 0. 9 5 1, 7 9 5. 7 1 7] : [ 3 0 5 2 0 8 5. 4 6 3, [ 2. 1 1 8, 9 7. 2 5 2, 0. 0 1, 4. 8 4 5, 4 1 4. 4 6 2, 7 7 7. 5 2 2, 1. 1 6, 1 4 8 5. 8 6 1] : [ 2 5 6 4 5 3 4. 6 3 3, [ 2. 1 1 7, 8 5. 6 7 6, 0. 0 1, 3. 7 1 1, 7 2 7. 4 1 1, 7 7 1. 6 1 8, 1. 1 1 6, 1 1 1 9. 3 5 7] : [ 2 4 2 7 5 1 2. 4 0 3, [ 2. 4 6 6, 8 1. 4 9 7, 0. 0 1, 5. 1 9 9, 4 2 4. 7 4 9, 6 9 2. 2 3 9, 1. 2 6 2, 1 0 6 8. 2 7 9] : [ 1 2 8 9 5 2 1 5. 0 2 7, [ 2. 1 8 9, 6 8. 4 1 8, 0. 0 1, 4. 8 4 7, 7 5 4. 1 6 5, 7 1 8. 8 3 4, 1. 0 9, 1 6 2 7. 9 5 6] : [ 4 7 3 2 9 3 0. 1 0 3, : [ 2. 2 5, 7 1. 8 4, 0. 0 1, 4. 7 5 9, 6 5 8. 6 1 1, 6 9 8. 2 8 3, 1. 2 5 1, 1 3 7 6. 7 2 7] : [ 7 7 3 2 1 4 8. 7 5 4, : [ 2. 5 1 4, 7 7. 4 1, 0. 0 1, 5. 1 9 6, 5 0 5. 1 3 4, 6 9 0. 5 7 9, 1. 7 0 4, 9 3 8. 1 8 4] : [ 1 6 5 1 5 7 7 9. 9 6 6, : [ 2. 4 0 2, 7 6. 3 8 3, 0. 0 1, 4. 7 0 9, 3 3 1. 3 3 4, 6 8 8. 5 7, 1. 1 5 8, 1 0 2 2. 3 1 4] : [ 1 1 0 6 5 2 7 3. 2 6 6, : [ 2. 4 2 9, 7 8. 5 3 2, 0. 0 1, 5. 3 4 3, 7 0 7. 7 3 4, 7 0 4. 3 5 2, 1. 1 9 6, 1 0 3 0. 3 1 5] : [ 1 1 3 4 0 9 0 3. 0 3 7, : [ 2. 1 6 5, 9 8. 5 1 7, 0. 0 1, 3. 6 2, 6 8 6. 0 0 7, 7 2 6. 8 9 8, 1. 1 3 9, 1 4 3 7. 7 0 8] : [ 4 0 1 6 0 1 2. 2 3 5, : [ 2. 6 9 5, 8 0. 0 2 6, 0. 0 1, 5. 1 7 3, 7 4 4. 6 5 9, 7 0 4. 0 7 4, 1. 8 1 1, 1 0 3 3. 8 8 1] : [ 2 0 2 8 2 8 9 3. 9 5 9, : [ 2. 2, 1 0 1. 9 6 4, 0. 0 1, 4. 8 1 4, 7 6 2. 6 3 8, 6 9 0. 8 5, 1. 1 4, 1 2 6 2. 8 9 9] : [ 5 0 9 0 5 3 0. 4 1 8, : [ 2. 2 7 8, 8 2. 3 6 1, 0. 0 1, 4. 6 1 7, 6 2 2. 6 1, 7 0 2. 3 0 2, 1. 2 3, 9 5 0. 5 4 2] : [ 7 9 8 8 0 3 5. 4 0 6, : [ 2. 2 1 8, 8 6. 9 0 2, 0. 0 1, 4. 8 7, 6 1 9. 7 8 2, 6 9 2. 2 3 4, 1. 1 4 8, 1 3 3 5. 6 8 5] : [ 6 0 2 0 8 5 3. 9 1, : [ 2. 4 3 3, 7 4. 8 9, 0. 0 1, 5. 5 1 2, 7 1 8. 4 4 9, 7 3 1. 0 5 2, 1. 0 5 4, 1 1 3 9. 2 7 8] : [ 1 0 0 0 2 8 5 6. 7 7 4, : [ 2. 4 7 1, 7 6. 7 0 1, 0. 0 1, 5. 3 4 1, 6 0 2. 0 5 4, 6 9 2. 9 1 7, 1. 4 6 7, 9 5 2. 1 4 7] : [ 1 4 2 7 7 2 0 2. 2 4, : [ 2. 4 4, 8 5. 5 2 7, 0. 0 1, 4. 7 1 3, 4 7 1. 5 3 6, 6 9 7. 4 1 4, 1. 2 4 9, 9 5 2. 5 3 6] : [ 1 2 0 1 7 4 3 4. 3 3, : [ 2. 7 0 1, 7 7. 2 5 5, 0. 0 1, 5. 3 1 5, 6 3 3. 7 1 6, 6 9 9. 9 5 8, 1. 7 9 4, 9 4 7. 0 1 3] : [ 2 0 5 5 4 5 3 5. 8 4 7, : [ 2. 6 0 3, 8 7. 1 2 7, 0. 0 1, 4. 7 8 3, 7 0 9. 9 0 2, 6 8 7. 2 2 6, 1. 2 9 6, 1 0 4 3. 5 0 4] : [ 1 5 7 7 0 6 6 2. 5 3 7, : [ 2. 4 9 4, 7 6. 6 1 1, 0. 0 1, 5. 1 5 7, 6 5 1. 7 1 1, 6 9 3. 2 5 6, 1. 5 7 9, 9 5 2. 9 4 7] : [ 1 5 3 2 3 2 2 5. 4 2 5, : [ 2. 6 1, 8 2. 4 7, 0. 0 1, 4. 2 7 1, 4 8 1. 9 1 8, 7 0 8. 7 9 7, 1. 5 4, 9 2 4. 7 6] : [ 1 7 2 6 8 8 7 0. 9 7 4, : [ 2. 3 0 1, 7 8. 8 7 3, 0. 0 1, 5. 2 4 8, 6 6 2. 1 9 7, 7 0 4. 4 9 6, 1. 1 8 8, 1 3 4 2. 1 6] : [ 8 2 9 9 4 9 8. 0 5 2, : [ 2. 5 2 2, 7 9. 0 6 1, 0. 0 1, 4. 8 4 4, 6 7 3. 6 3 4, 6 9 7. 4 1 4, 1. 1 8 4, 1 0 5 3. 4 4 7] : [ 1 3 3 9 1 8 5 8. 2 4,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 7 8] 0. 6 7 8] 0. 5 9 7] 0. 5 9 2] 0. 5 8 9] 0. 6 6 7] 0. 6 1 4] 0. 6 3 6] 0. 6 7 6] 0. 6 5 8] 0. 6 6] 0. 6 1 4] 0. 6 8 3] 0. 6 2 9] 0. 6 4 1] 0. 6 3 1] 0. 6 5 1] 0. 6 7 1] 0. 6 6 3] 0. 6 8 4] 0. 6 7 6] 0. 6 7 4] 0. 6 7 9] 0. 6 4 3] 0. 6 6 9]

A214

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 5 M A N 4 0 1 2 3 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 7 2 3- 1 5)

9. 5. 2. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A215

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V05 M A N401230

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

258400000

st art _ d at e

198801010000

e n d _ d at e

199212310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0 5, 1 5 4. 2 4, 0. 0 0 9, 3. 7 9, 1 9 0. 4 0 9, 3 5 0. 4 8 8, 1. 5, 1 0 9. 5 4 9]

l o w _ b o u n ds

Fi n al r e p ort

[ 0. 5, 7 8. 7, 0. 0 0 0 1, 1. 5, 9 6. 7, 1 7 8. 6, 0. 5, 4 6. 0]

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A216

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 2 3 6. 0, 0. 0 1, 4. 5 4, 2 9 0. 0, 7 0 0. 0, 3. 0, 1 4 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0 5), (' Ki', 1 5 4. 2 4), (' K g', 0. 0 0 9), (' Kss', 3. 7 9), (' g 0', 1 9 0. 4 0 9), (' g _ m a x', 3 5 0. 4 8 8), (' K _r u n', 1. 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 0 9. 5 4 9)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 1 A bs Err: 7 4 4 3 3 1 9. 5 0 9 K G E: 0. 4 1 9 N S _r el: - 0. 3 7 8 N S: 0. 1 6 5 R M S E: 8 8 1 5 8 7 2. 7 N S _l o g: 0. 3 9 6

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 7: 4 9: 0 8. 7 6 6 0 0 0 9. 5. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 2 5 5), (' Ki', 1 0 4. 8 0 7), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 6 0 8), (' g 0', 1 9 3. 6 2 2), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 6. 5 4 2), (' K _r u n', 3. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 2. 8 5 9)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 5 A bs Err: 9 8 6 9 5 0 1. 4 3 2 K G E: 0. 4 3 N S _r el: 0. 1 0 6 N S: 0. 3 2 9 R M S E: 1 0 4 0 2 1 7 0. 6 2 7 N S _l o g: 0. 5 0 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A217

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A218

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A219

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

9. 5. 2. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 6 2 1, 8 3. 7 2 6, 0. 0 1, 2. 7 9 5, 1 6 8. 3 7, 2 9 0. 4 8 1, 2. 7 1 4, 1 2 2. 6 9 9] : [ 4 0 4 7 4 6 5 9. 9 8 3, 1Fi n al:r e p[ort1. 1 1 9, 1 4 1. 4 7 8, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 5 9, 1 9 7.W L4 2105,2 1 R 0304_ 2.1 652 0_ 4-3, 5 1. 5 8 5, 1 1 9. 8 4 6] : [ 5 0 0 1 1 8 5. 8 0 4,

0. 5 9 5] 0. A4 232 7]0

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

: : : : : : : :

[ 1. 1 6 5, 1 1 6. 0 0 2, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 1 1 1, 1 9 7. 8 0 6, 3 0 4. 4 4 8, 2. 2 4, 1 2 1. 9 1 4] : [ 7 5 0 4 9 6 7. 7 8 1, [ 1. 3 6 6, 1 0 5. 5 3 1, 0. 0 1, 1. 5, 1 9 4. 1 1 8, 3 0 6. 5 3 7, 2. 9 4 5, 1 1 5. 1 7] : [ 2 0 5 9 1 9 8 8. 3 3, [ 1. 2 3 2, 1 1 7. 2 4 4, 0. 0 1, 2. 7 4 8, 1 9 1. 4 9 2, 3 0 4. 5 1 3, 3. 0, 1 2 3. 0 8 3] : [ 9 6 9 6 1 3 7. 2 2 9, [ 1. 2 5 7, 1 0 7. 8 0 6, 0. 0 0 9, 3. 1 7 3, 1 9 2. 8 9 6, 3 0 6. 0 6 8, 3. 0, 1 2 2. 4 1] : [ 1 4 8 1 6 1 2 4. 9 1 8, [ 1. 1 6 7, 1 0 4. 4 9 6, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 5 8, 1 9 6. 6 7 2, 3 1 0. 5 3 2, 3. 0, 1 2 2. 3 5 9] : [ 5 1 1 9 7 1 2. 0 2 5, [ 1. 2 3 2, 1 5 0. 7 7, 0. 0 1, 1. 9 8 5, 1 8 5. 9 3 1, 2 9 8. 7 6 2, 2. 9 9 1, 1 2 4. 1 0 4] : [ 1 4 3 7 0 1 0 8. 5 9, [ 1. 5 4 6, 9 3. 0 1 4, 0. 0 1, 1. 8 3 9, 1 8 9. 3 3 4, 3 0 6. 0 9 8, 2. 5 5 1, 1 2 2. 3 7 8] : [ 3 4 4 8 8 3 7 0. 4 0 6, [ 1. 3 6, 9 4. 3 0 9, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 0 4 4, 1 8 8. 0 3, 3 0 1. 7 2 4, 3. 0, 1 2 2. 4 7 6] : [ 2 6 1 4 6 6 4 7. 1 2 1, : [ 1. 3 6 6, 1 0 5. 5 3 1, 0. 0 1, 1. 5, 1 9 3. 1 9 3, 3 0 4. 9 8 2, 3. 0, 1 1 4. 6 0 4] : [ 2 0 6 9 6 2 3 8. 2 8 3, : [ 1. 2 5 5, 1 0 4. 8 0 7, 0. 0 1, 2. 6 0 8, 1 9 3. 6 2 2, 3 0 6. 5 4 2, 3. 0, 1 2 2. 8 5 9] : [ 9 8 6 9 5 0 1. 4 3 2, : [ 1. 3 6 6, 1 0 3. 9 5 2, 0. 0 1, 2. 8 6, 1 9 4. 7 3 5, 3 0 6. 5 3 7, 3. 0, 1 1 4. 1 2 9] : [ 2 0 3 2 6 6 1 3. 5 7 7, : [ 1. 3 0 8, 1 0 7. 4 7 3, 0. 0 1, 2. 5 9 1, 1 9 4. 0 7 5, 3 0 4. 7 7 7, 2. 2 2 9, 1 2 2. 5 9 2] : [ 1 6 6 5 4 1 4 8. 9 9 2, : [ 1. 4 5 8, 9 2. 9 4 7, 0. 0 1, 1. 5, 1 8 8. 0 0 8, 3 0 3. 9 2 6, 3. 0, 1 2 2. 4 3 3] : [ 2 6 9 9 3 0 3 1. 5 8 5, : [ 1. 3 6 6, 1 0 5. 7 9, 0. 0 1, 1. 7 0 2, 1 9 3. 1 5 2, 3 0 4. 7 7 1, 2. 6 3 7, 1 1 7. 9 1] : [ 2 1 1 1 3 6 2 8. 8 4 8, : [ 1. 2 6, 1 0 3. 9 8 2, 0. 0 1, 2. 4 6 5, 1 9 5. 2 2 4, 3 0 7. 0 9 3, 3. 0, 1 2 0. 9 9 3] : [ 1 1 4 4 2 5 7 4. 0 1 5, : [ 1. 3 5 1, 9 7. 9 3 8, 0. 0 1, 2. 3 6 1, 1 8 2. 5 8 9, 3 0 6. 4 3 9, 3. 0, 1 2 2. 3 4 4] : [ 1 8 0 1 7 8 7 4. 4 2 9, : [ 1. 2 3 2, 1 5 0. 7 7, 0. 0 1, 1. 9 8 5, 1 8 7. 6 0 7, 2 9 8. 7 6 2, 2. 9 9 1, 1 2 4. 1 0 4] : [ 1 4 3 6 7 6 1 9. 0 3 2, : [ 1. 3 1, 1 0 7. 4 4 7, 0. 0 1, 1. 5 3, 1 9 2. 4 7 7, 3 0 4. 7 7 2, 3. 0, 1 1 6. 9 7 8] : [ 1 5 7 7 7 2 4 3. 6 4 6,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 4 7 8] 0. 5 5] 0. 5 0 3] 0. 5 1 7] 0. 4 6 6] 0. 5 1 2] 0. 5 8 7] 0. 5 5 8] 0. 5 5 1] 0. 5 0 8] 0. 5 5] 0. 5 3 3] 0. 5 7 4] 0. 5 5 2] 0. 5 1 2] 0. 5 4 4] 0. 5 1 2] 0. 5 3 3]

A221

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 7 0 1- 5 7)

9. 5. 3. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A222

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

F 0 5 L EI 3 8 6 9 9 9

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

2981800000

st art _ d at e

200301010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 3. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 2 5. 0, 0. 0 0 4 7, 1. 0 1, 1 1 0. 0, 3 2 0. 0, 4. 0, 1 5 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

Fi n al r e p ort

[ 0. 9, 1 7. 0, 0. 0 0 0 9, 0. 7, 7 7. 0, 2 2 4. 0, 2. 8, 1 0 5. 0]

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A223

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 5 0 0. 0, 8. 0, 3 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 2 5. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 4 7), (' Kss', 1. 0 1), (' g 0', 1 1 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 2 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 4. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 1 5 8 A bs Err: 6 1 6 6 0 6 0 2 1. 8 0 6 K G E: 0. 7 1 8 N S _r el: 0. 7 6 2 N S: 0. 5 8 3 R M S E: 7 1 1 6 2 6 2 8 8. 4 2 7 N S _l o g: 0. 5 3 8

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 8: 2 8: 4 6. 7 4 3 0 0 0 9. 5. 3. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 5 5 3), (' Ki', 8 0. 2 5 2), (' K g', 0. 0 0 6), (' Kss', 2. 1 9 4), (' g 0', 1 5 7. 0 7 3), (' g _ m a x', 4 4 2. 0 8), (' K _r u n', 3. 4 0 7), (' P _ m a x', 1 9 6. 5 1 5)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 8 A bs Err: 2 0 4 5 3 8 4 5 8. 1 6 6 K G E: 0. 7 3 2 N S _r el: 0. 6 6 3 N S: 0. 4 5 7 R M S E: 2 6 4 7 1 0 5 1 1. 1 1 6 N S _l o g: 0. 6 0 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A224

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A225

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A226

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A227

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 3. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 1 3 7, 1 : [ 1. 5 5 3, 2 : [ 1. 1 3 7, 3 : [ 1. 5 2 7, 4 : [ 1. 5 1 3,

Fi n al r e p ort

3 2. 5 0 4, 8 0. 2 5 2, 3 4. 1 5 1, 9 3. 7 1 4, 9 8. 9 0 4,

0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 6, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 6, 0. 0 0 6,

1. 2 6 5, 2. 1 9 4, 1. 2 6 5, 2. 2 2 4, 1. 2 9 8,

1 6 1. 3 6 1, 1 5 7. 0 7 3, 1 6 1. 3 6 1, 1 5 8. 2 9 7, 1 4 1. 6 4,

4 0 6. 9 7 3, 4 4 2. 0 8, 4 0 7. 4 8 2, 3 9 6. 5 5 6, 3 9 6. 2 2 7,

5. 5 8 4, 3. 4 0 7, 5. 4 9 9, 3. 3 9 1, 3. 4 7,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

2 0 5. 6 6 7] 1 9 6. 5 1 5] 2 0 5. 6 6 7] 1 8 8. 7 2 7] 1 8 7. 8 4 7]

: : : : :

[ 2 0 0 8 8 4 3 4 8. 1 5 4, [ 2 0 4 5 3 8 4 5 8. 1 6 6, [ 2 0 1 7 1 0 7 5 2. 8 2 7, [ 2 0 3 4 2 5 0 5 8. 7 3 7, [ 2 0 4 2 4 5 7 3 2. 4 7 7,

0. 5 0 2] 0. 6 0 7] 0. 5 0 5] 0. 6 0 2] 0. 6 0 3]

A228

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C u m ul a ti v e T o t al Fl o w F 0 S L El 3 8 6 9 9 9 Ga u g @d Sl m ul at @ d _l niti al 0: A b s E 𝑖𝑖 = 2 0 0 8 8 4 3 4 8. 1 5 4 l: A bs E 𝑃𝑃 = 2 0 4 𝑖𝑖 3 8 4 5 8. 1 6 6 2: A b s E 𝑛𝑛 2 0 1 7 1 0 7 5 2 .8 2 7 3: A 𝑖𝑖 E 𝑂𝑂 = 2 0 3 4 1 5 0 5 𝑖𝑖. 7 3 7 4: A b s E 𝑂𝑂 : 2 0 4 2 4 5 7 3 2. 4 7 7

𝐸𝐸 E U

𝑂𝑂

0 𝑛𝑛 _ 2003

Fi n al r e p ort

_ 𝑖𝑖 _ 2004

_ 𝑥𝑥 _ 2005

𝑥𝑥 _ 2006

_ 𝑑𝑑

_ _ 2007

_ 𝑥𝑥 _ 2008

_ 𝐵𝐵 _ 2009

_ _ 𝑥𝑥 _ 2010

_ 𝐴𝐴

2 0 11

_ 𝑦𝑦

_ 2012

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

𝐵𝐵

𝑦𝑦 2013

𝐴𝐴

A229

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 2

A 230

B o v e ns c h el d e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0" ( B o v e ns c h el d e)

9. 5. 1. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0 ( B o v e ns c h el d e)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A231

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V06 M A A347160

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

48678191

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 0

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 8

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 5 5), (' Ki', 6 1. 9 5), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 3. 2 1), (' g 0', 8 3. 0 8), (' g _ m a x', 2 3 1. 8), (' K _r u n', 9. 6 6), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 6. 9 2)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 4 - 2 0 0 8)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 9 %

2 1. 1 %

- 0. 1 %

- 0. 4 5 3

- 5. 1 3 7

0. 2 1 5

N S _l o g

0. 5 0 9

0. 0 8 9

0. 4 6 4

N S _r el

- 0. 3 0 9

- 0. 7 0 6

- 0. 1 1 2

K GE

0. 3 6 6

- 0. 8 3 6

0. 6 2 4

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 8)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 4. 8 %

- 9. 0 %

- 2. 9 %

- 0. 3 4 5

- 4. 2 2 9

0. 2 3 1

N S _l o g

0. 5 0 3

0. 1 7 6

0. 4 7 3

N S _r el

- 0. 2 9 1

- 0. 9 6 7

- 0. 0 1 3

K GE

0. 4 0 1

- 0. 6 2 1

0. 6 2 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A232

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0, st ati o n 3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0, st ati o n 3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A233

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0, st ati o n 3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0, st ati o n 3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A234

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0, st ati o n 3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0, st ati o n 3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A235

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0, st ati o n 3 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - M a ar k e b e e k; Eti k h o v e

9. 5. 2

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0" ( B o v e ns c h el d e)

9. 5. 2. 1

Fi n al r e p ort

I n p ut d at a

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A236

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( B o v e ns c h el d e)

9. 5. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V06Z W A342190

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

112100000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 7

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 6), (' Ki', 5 6. 2 3), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 7 2), (' g 0', 8 7. 9 4), (' g _ m a x', 6 4 0. 4 1), (' K _r u n', 6. 9 6), (' P _ m a x', 2 0 1. 1 9)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 2. 8 %

2 6. 0 %

- 2 1. 1 %

0. 4 6 9

- 1. 6 6 6

0. 4 4 4

N S _l o g

0. 6 4 7

0. 2 3

0. 5 1 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A237

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

N S _r el

0. 3 3 5

- 1. 4 6 9

0. 8 5 9

K GE

0. 7 4 2

- 0. 2 5

0. 5 1 1

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 5 %

1 6. 5 %

- 6. 1 %

0. 7 0 9

0. 4 6 4

0. 7 6 3

N S _l o g

0. 6 9 2

0. 4 4 1

0. 7 1 4

N S _r el

0. 6 9 7

0. 6 7

0. 8 1 7

K GE

0. 8 0 8

0. 6 2 8

0. 8 4 8

9. 5. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0, st ati o n 3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A238

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0, st ati o n 3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0, st ati o n 3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A239

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0, st ati o n 3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0, st ati o n 3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A240

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0, st ati o n 3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0, st ati o n 3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A241

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9 M e as ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y dis c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0, st ati o n 3 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w al m; N e d erz w al m

9. 5. 3

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " W 0 6 R H O L 5 4 1 0 0 " ( B o v e ns c h el d e)

9. 5. 3. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 0 6 R H O L 5 4 1 0 0 ( B o v e ns c h el d e) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A242

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W 0 6 R H OL 5 4 1 0 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

161900000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 1 2

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 0- 2 0 1 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 2. 9 5), (' Ki', 9 7. 4), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 0), (' g 0', 1 6 3. 6), (' g _ m a x', 3 9 9. 5 3), (' K _r u n', 6. 1 7), (' P _ m a x', 8 7. 1 3)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 2 %

8. 5 %

- 2. 4 %

0. 7 0 8

- 2. 3 1 1

0. 8 2 1

N S _l o g

0. 7 3

0. 3 0 9

0. 6 2 9

N S _r el

0. 4 8 4

- 0. 0 8 4

0. 5 3 1

K GE

0. 8 3 9

- 0. 5 6 1

0. 8 8 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A243

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 1 2 - 2 0 1 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

2 1. 6 %

2 9. 6 %

2 2. 8 %

- 0. 3 7 2

- 0. 6 9 9

0. 7 9 2

N S _l o g

0. 3 9 6

0. 4 2 6

0. 4 7 9

N S _r el

- 1. 2 8 3

0. 5 0 7

0. 3 9 9

K GE

0. 2 6 6

- 0. 0 1 6

0. 8 1

9. 5. 3. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 6 R H O L 5 4 1 0 0, st ati o n L 5 4 1 2 A m o u gi es R h os n es( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A244

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 6 R H O L 5 4 1 0 0, st ati o n L 5 4 1 2 A m o u gi es R h os n es ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 6 R H O L 5 4 1 0 0, st ati o n L 5 4 1 2 A m o u gi es R h os n es ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A245

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 6 R H O L 5 4 1 0 0, st ati o n L 5 4 1 2 A m o u gi es R h os n es ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

9. 5. 4

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 " ( B o v e ns c h el d e)

9. 5. 4. 1

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( B o v e ns c h el d e) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A246

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

F0 6 B OS3 25 99 9

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

5217600000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 1 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 6), (' Ki', 6 9. 8 7), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 7 9), (' g 0', 1 0 7. 9 4), (' g _ m a x', 3 8 5. 4 6), (' K _r u n', 3. 5 7), (' P _ m a x', 5 3 8. 2 9)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 2. 6 %

- 8. 2 %

- 2. 8 %

0. 4 6 7

0. 3 3 8

0. 5 7 7

N S _l o g

0. 6 0 1

0. 2 0 4

0. 5 5 6

N S _r el

0. 7 1 7

0. 6 7 4

0. 5 3 7

K GE

0. 7 0 1

0. 5 4 9

0. 7 1 2

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A247

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 9. 1 %

- 2 2. 0 %

- 4. 7 %

0. 5 0 9

0. 1 9

0. 5 8 1

N S _l o g

0. 4 1 8

- 0. 4 4 7

0. 6 0 5

N S _r el

0. 7 2 2

0. 5 3 5

0. 6 5 3

K GE

0. 7 1

0. 5 3 1

0. 7 9 3

9. 5. 4. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9, B o v e ns c h el d e B oss uit ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A248

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9, B o v e ns c h el d e B oss uit ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9, B o v e ns c h el d e B oss uit ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A249

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9, B o v e ns c h el d e B oss uit ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9, B o v e ns c h el d e B oss uit

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A250

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9, B o v e ns c h el d e B oss uit

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9, B o v e ns c h el d e B oss uit

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A251

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 0: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9, B o v e ns c h el d e B oss uit

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A252

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 3

Fi n al v ersi o n

B o v e ns c h el d e A ut o c ali br ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 253

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1 9. 5. 1. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 6 M A A 3 4 7 1 6 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 5 0 6- 1 1) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A254

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V06 M A A347160

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

48678191

st art _ d at e

199401010000

e n d _ d at e

200812310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 3 7, 7 3. 0, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 0 5, 8 6. 0, 1 8 7. 0, 5. 0, 1 5 3. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 9 5, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 4, 0. 7 5, 4 5. 0, 9 0. 0, 2. 0, 1 0 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 9, 1 3 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 5. 0, 1 3 5. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 1 0. 0, 2 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 3 7), (' Ki', 7 3. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 1. 0 5), (' g 0', 8 6. 0), (' g _ m a x', 1 8 7. 0), (' K _r u n', 5. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 3. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:     

R el Err: - 0. 0 7 9 A bs Err: 1 0 1 8 4 4 3 3. 4 3 K G E: 0. 1 8 7 N S _r el: - 1. 3 9 5 N S: - 0. 9 9 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A255

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

 

R M S E: 1 1 1 0 5 0 2 2. 3 0 2 N S _l o g: 0. 2 8 1

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 3: 5 5: 0 0. 7 2 7 0 0 0 9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 5 5 1), (' Ki', 6 1. 9 4 6), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 3. 2 1 7), (' g 0', 8 3. 0 8 4), (' g _ m a x', 2 3 1. 8 0 8), (' K _r u n', 9. 6 6 7), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 6. 9 2 1)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 9 A bs Err: 7 1 7 2 9 9 1. 1 8 7 K G E: 0. 3 6 6 N S _r el: - 0. 3 0 9 N S: - 0. 4 5 3 R M S E: 8 1 3 5 5 1 5. 2 4 3 N S _l o g: 0. 5 0 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A256

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A257

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A258

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A259

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A260

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 1: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 1. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 5 6 3, 1 : [ 1. 4 8 2, 2 : [ 1. 5 5 1, 3 : [ 1. 4 8 4,

Fi n al r e p ort

6 2. 4 0 4, 5 7. 3 1 3, 6 1. 9 4 6, 5 9. 1 0 9,

0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 0 0 3,

1. 4 3 5, 1. 7 9 8, 3. 2 1 7, 2. 8,

9 4. 6 6 5, 7 5. 6 2 9, 8 3. 0 8 4, 8 2. 4 9 5,

2 2 9. 3 1 8, 2 3 9. 6 6 2, 2 3 1. 8 0 8, 2 2 9. 9 9 3,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

7. 4 8 7, 7. 9 4 9, 9. 6 6 7, 7. 8 2 4,

1 5 9. 2 0 5] 1 7 7. 7 8 6] 1 5 6. 9 2 1] 1 5 7. 5 3 8]

: : : :

[ 7 1 2 7 8 5 5. 6 4 9, [ 7 4 1 5 3 8 5. 9 2 8, [ 7 1 7 2 9 9 1. 1 8 7, [ 7 2 7 7 4 0 9. 4 7 6,

0. 4 8 6] 0. 5 2 1] 0. 5 0 9] 0. 5 1]

A261

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2 9. 5. 2. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 6 Z W A 3 4 2 1 9 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 2 1- 5 8) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A262

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V06Z W A342190

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

112100000

st art _ d at e

200801010000

e n d _ d at e

201212310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A263

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 4, 1 9. 0, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 0, 4 5. 0, 7 5 0. 0, 6. 5, 2 1 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 1, 1 5. 2, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 8, 3 6. 0, 5 5 0. 0, 5. 0, 1 6 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 7 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 8 8 8. 0, 9. 0, 3 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 4), (' Ki', 1 9. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 1. 0), (' g 0', 4 5. 0), (' g _ m a x', 7 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 6. 5), (' P _ m a x', 2 1 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 1 A bs Err: 5 1 4 0 7 8 4. 3 8 7 K G E: 0. 6 1 9 N S _r el: 0. 6 4 6 N S: 0. 5 5 1 R M S E: 5 7 8 2 1 0 3. 0 6 N S _l o g: 0. 6 2 8

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 4: 0 7: 1 1. 4 0 9 0 0 0 9. 5. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 6 0 2), (' Ki', 5 6. 2 3 3), (' K g', 0. 0 0 5), (' Kss', 1. 7 2 3), (' g 0', 8 7. 9 3 6), (' g _ m a x', 6 4 0. 4 1 1), (' K _r u n', 6. 9 5 7), (' P _ m a x', 2 0 1. 1 8 7)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 2 8 A bs Err: 4 4 9 2 4 8 8. 4 6 8 K G E: 0. 7 4 2 N S _r el: 0. 3 3 5 N S: 0. 4 6 9 R M S E: 5 6 4 4 8 1 0. 8 8 4 N S _l o g: 0. 6 4 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A264

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A265

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A266

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A267

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A268

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 3 0 1 2 3

: : : :

Fi n al r e p ort

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 6 0 4, [ 1. 6 0 2, [ 1. 6 0 2, [ 1. 6 0 4,

4 2. 3 6 7, 5 6. 2 3 3, 5 6. 1 7 5, 4 5. 3 2 2,

0. 0 0 5, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 0 0 5,

1. 5 4 4, 1. 7 2 3, 1. 7 4 4, 1. 7 1 4,

8 7. 4 5 2, 8 7. 9 3 6, 8 7. 8 9, 8 7. 6 4 4,

6 5 0. 4 3, 6 4 0. 4 1 1, 6 4 0. 6 0 9, 6 4 2. 3 6 5,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

6. 3 9 5, 6. 9 5 7, 8. 3 1 9, 6. 6 1 8,

2 1 8. 8 8 5] : [ 5 0 1 7 6 2 3. 5 9 8, 2 0 1. 1 8 7] : [ 4 4 9 2 4 8 8. 4 6 8, 2 1 0. 3 1 8] : [ 4 7 1 9 4 1 7. 5 1 8, 2 0 3. 9 8 3] : [ 4 7 7 8 8 8 5. 5 9,

0. 6 6 5] 0. 6 4 7] 0. 6 4 7] 0. 6 6 1]

A269

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3 9. 5. 3. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 0 6 R H O L 5 4 1 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 1 1 7- 0 1) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 3. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A270

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W 0 6 R H OL 5 4 1 0 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

161900000

st art _ d at e

201301010000

e n d _ d at e

201309300000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 3. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 2. 9 7, 9 5. 9 2, 0. 0 0 7, 0. 7 2, 1 6 1. 6, 3 8 7. 0, 4. 5, 1 0 2. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 5, 9 0. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 2. 0, 5 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 3. 5, 1 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 2. 0, 2 6 0. 0, 6 0 0. 0, 7. 0, 1 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 2. 9 7), (' Ki', 9 5. 9 2), (' K g', 0. 0 0 7), (' Kss', 0. 7 2), (' g 0', 1 6 1. 6), (' g _ m a x', 3 8 7. 0), (' K _r u n', 4. 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 0 2. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 0 2 A bs Err: 5 5 3 3 2 1. 3 9 4 K G E: 0. 7 9 8 N S _r el: 0. 3 8 7 N S: 0. 6 4 3 R M S E: 7 2 4 3 5 4. 0 6 7 N S _l o g: 0. 7 1 5

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 2: 1 9: 5 4. 1 1 1 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A271

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 2. 9 5 3), (' Ki', 9 7. 4 6 1), (' K g', 0. 0 0 7), (' Kss', 2. 0), (' g 0', 1 6 3. 6 0 8), (' g _ m a x', 3 9 9. 5 3 3), (' K _r u n', 6. 1 7 3), (' P _ m a x', 8 7. 1 3 3)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 1 2 A bs Err: 4 8 2 5 3 2. 6 4 9 K G E: 0. 8 3 9 N S _r el: 0. 4 8 4 N S: 0. 7 0 8 R M S E: 6 4 6 4 9 5. 0 6 3 N S _l o g: 0. 7 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A272

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A273

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A274

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A275

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 2. 4 5, 9 8. 4 2 9, 0. 0 0 4, 0. 7 8 1, 1 : [ 3. 0 1 5, 9 4. 7 7 5, 0. 0 0 7, 0. 6 2, 2 : [ 3. 1 9 8, 9 5. 5 2 7, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 0, 3 : [ 2. 9 5 3, 9 7. 4 6 1, 0. 0 0 7, 2. 0, 4 : [ 3. 0 7 7, 9 5. 4 0 2, 0. 0 0 8, 0. 5, 5 : [ 3. 1 5 6, 9 4. 9 7 9, 0. 0 0 9, 1. 7 6 9,

Fi n al r e p ort

1 7 3. 2 1 7, 1 6 5. 9 1 7, 1 6 6. 1 4 7, 1 6 3. 6 0 8, 1 6 6. 1 2 2, 1 6 5. 8 9 7,

4 0 9. 1 9 3, 3 9 2. 7 0 7, 3 9 1. 8 9 7, 3 9 9. 5 3 3, 3 9 2. 4 6 8, 3 9 2. 3 9 8,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

4. 9 9 9, 5. 6 0 8, 6. 2 3 6, 6. 1 7 3, 6. 2 8 1, 6. 1 0 1,

9 3. 6 4 2] 8 6. 8 0 3] 9 4. 7 9 4] 8 7. 1 3 3] 8 8. 2 1] 9 2. 7 1 7]

: [ 8 1 9 3 0 3. 2 2 2, : [ 4 4 6 9 0 2. 6 1 7, : [ 3 5 1 7 0 7. 7 8 6, : [ 4 8 2 5 3 2. 6 4 9, : [ 3 9 8 8 5 6. 4 4 9, : [ 3 6 3 0 3 9. 4 1 4,

0. 7 7 5] 0. 7 1 1] 0. 6 6 5] 0. 7 3] 0. 6 9 6] 0. 6 7 7]

A276

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4 9. 5. 4. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt F 0 6 B O S 3 2 5 9 9 9 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 7 0 2- 0 7) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 4. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A277

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

F0 6 B OS3 25 99 9

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

5217600000

st art _ d at e

200501010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 4. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 1, 4 5. 0, 0. 0 0 9 8, 1. 0 2, 7 5. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 3. 0, 5 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 5 5, 2 2. 0, 0. 0 0 4, 0. 5, 3 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 1. 5, 2 5 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 2, 9 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 2. 0 4, 1 2 0. 0, 4 5 0. 0, 6. 0, 7 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 1), (' Ki', 4 5. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 9 8), (' Kss', 1. 0 2), (' g 0', 7 5. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 3. 0), (' P _ m a x', 5 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 6 9 1 A bs Err: 2 7 3 5 8 7 6 4 4 8. 5 6 K G E: 0. 0 3 6 N S _r el: - 1. 1 5 8 N S: - 1. 2 0 5 R M S E: 3 2 6 1 7 7 8 3 0 0. 0 1 N S _l o g: - 0. 3 2 5

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 8: 3 8: 0 0. 7 2 4 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A278

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 6 0 2), (' Ki', 6 9. 8 7 7), (' K g', 0. 0 0 5), (' Kss', 0. 7 9 2), (' g 0', 1 0 7. 9 3 5), (' g _ m a x', 3 8 5. 4 6), (' K _r u n', 3. 5 6 6), (' P _ m a x', 5 3 8. 2 9 4)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 2 6 A bs Err: 1 7 9 0 3 0 8 5 7. 4 7 K G E: 0. 7 0 1 N S _r el: 0. 7 1 7 N S: 0. 4 6 7 R M S E: 2 1 1 8 4 6 5 0 0. 2 0 6 N S _l o g: 0. 6 0 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A279

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A280

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A281

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A282

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A283

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 1: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 4. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4

: : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 4 8 8, [ 1. 6 0 2, [ 1. 6 0 3, [ 1. 6 0 1, [ 1. 5 9 8,

Fi n al r e p ort

6 9. 3 9 8, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 5, 7 1. 4 7 9, 3 8 5. 5 4 8, 3. 0 4 8, 5 3 1. 0 6 4] : [ 4 6 2 0 2 8 9 8 6. 7 2 1, 6 9. 8 7 7, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 7 9 2, 1 0 7. 9 3 5, 3 8 5. 4 6, 3. 5 6 6, 5 3 8. 2 9 4] : [ 1 7 9 0 3 0 8 5 7. 4 7, 6 9. 8 7 9, 0. 0 0 5, 1. 2 9 9, 1 1 1. 6 1 8, 3 8 5. 0 6 9, 3. 4 6 3, 5 3 8. 4 3 1] : [ 1 7 5 6 2 7 5 8 3. 7 5 8, 7 0. 5 9 5, 0. 0 0 5, 2. 0 4, 8 3. 1, 3 8 3. 0 2 5, 3. 5 3, 5 3 8. 4 7 1] : [ 2 0 0 2 4 8 6 5 7. 6 7 9, 6 9. 6 4 1, 0. 0 0 5, 1. 1 9 7, 1 1 1. 7 6 6, 3 8 5. 4 2 4, 3. 3 6, 5 2 8. 8 6 6] : [ 2 0 9 4 3 2 5 5 5. 9 6 9,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 1 9] 0. 6 0 1] 0. 5 9 9] 0. 6 0 3] 0. 6 0 7]

A284

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A285

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 4

A 286

D e n d er b e k k e n C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1 9. 5. 1. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0 " ( D e n d er b e k k e n) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0 ( D e n d er b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A287

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 7 B EL 2 8 5 0 7 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

88700000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 5

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 6

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 3 9), (' Ki', 2 0. 7 6), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 7 9), (' g 0', 7 1. 0 8), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 6. 1 4), (' K _r u n', 1 3. 0 1), (' P _ m a x', 4 7 0. 4 9)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 0 4)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 4 %

1 5. 4 %

- 7. 4 %

0. 6 1 8

- 0. 0 1 6

0. 5 8 5

N S _l o g

0. 7 5 8

0. 5 7 7

0. 6 6 8

N S _r el

0. 6 9 8

0. 6 9 5

0. 6 3 1

K GE

0. 7 8 2

0. 4 8 1

0. 7 0 6

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 0 6)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 2 %

1 3. 6 %

- 5. 8 %

0. 4 8 7

0. 1 2 3

0. 7 1 4

N S _l o g

0. 7 0 8

0. 5 3

0. 5 4

N S _r el

0. 4 8 5

0. 4 0 1

0. 6 9 5

K GE

0. 7 5

0. 5 6 1

0. 8 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A288

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0, st ati o n 2 8 5 1 0 1 0 2 B ell e b e e k, Ess e n e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0, st ati o n 2 8 5 1 0 1 0 2 B ell e b e e k, Ess e n e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A289

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0, st ati o n 2 8 5 1 0 1 0 2 B ell e b e e k, Ess e n e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0, st ati o n 2 8 5 1 0 1 0 2 B ell e b e e k, Ess e n e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A290

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0, st ati o n 2 8 5 1 0 1 0 2 - B ell e b e e k, Ess e n e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0, st ati o n 2 8 5 1 0 1 0 2 - B ell e b e e k, Ess e n e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A291

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2

9. 5. 2. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d ( D e n d er b e k k e n)

v ali d ati o n

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5 ( D e n d er b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A292

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V07 M AR289015

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

173900000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 6

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 0

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 6), (' Ki', 6 6. 9 9), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 1. 1 9), (' g 0', 1 0 2. 7 8), (' g _ m a x', 5 3 6. 8 8), (' K _r u n', 4. 8 5), (' P _ m a x', 6 0 4. 5)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 7 %

7 6. 4 %

- 3 7. 9 %

0. 4 3 8

- 2. 6 2 4

0. 6 4 2

N S _l o g

0. 5 6 5

0. 0 0 9

0. 1 5 7

N S _r el

0. 3 0 6

- 0. 2 8 5

0. 7 2

K GE

0. 7 2 6

- 0. 4 8 1

0. 5 7 8

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 6 - 2 0 0 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 3. 9 %

7 3. 7 %

- 2 8. 1 %

0. 4 3 2

- 3. 3 1 6

0. 5 6 8

N S _l o g

0. 6 0 3

0. 2 3 2

0. 4 9 5

N S _r el

0. 1 0 4

- 0. 0 6 2

0. 5 8 6

K GE

0. 7 1

- 0. 6 4 9

0. 6 3 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A293

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5, st ati o n 2 8 9 7 0 1 0 2 M ar k e, Vi a n e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5, st ati o n 2 8 9 7 0 1 0 2 M ar k e, Vi a n e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A294

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5, st ati o n 2 8 9 7 0 1 0 2 M ar k e, Vi a n e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5, st ati o n 2 8 9 7 0 1 0 2 M ar k e, Vi a n e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A295

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5, st ati o n 2 8 9 7 0 1 0 2 - M ar k e, Vi a n e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5, st ati o n 2 8 9 7 0 1 0 2 - M ar k e, Vi a n e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A296

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3

9. 5. 3. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d ( D e n d er b e k k e n)

v ali d ati o n

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( D e n d er b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A297

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V07 M OE282100

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

46400000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 6

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 8

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 8 3), (' Ki', 6 7. 9 4), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 2 2), (' g 0', 1 3 4. 1 1), (' g _ m a x', 3 3 5. 9 5), (' K _r u n', 2 2. 5 7), (' P _ m a x', 2 6 3. 3 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 0 9)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 1 %

2. 1 %

- 3. 2 %

0. 4 4

0. 5 8 1

0. 3 3 7

N S _l o g

0. 6 8 8

0. 5 7 1

0. 5 0 9

N S _r el

0. 8 7 2

0. 8 3 9

0. 8 5 6

K GE

0. 5 3 5

0. 6 5 6

0. 3 4 1

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 6 - 1 9 9 8)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 5 %

- 1 3. 2 %

- 2. 3 %

0. 6 9 6

0. 5 0 9

0. 6 8 2

N S _l o g

0. 7 0 3

0. 3 6 2

0. 7 0 5

N S _r el

0. 7 9 1

0. 9 0 4

0. 7 9 8

K GE

0. 7 9 7

0. 6 7 5

0. 7 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A298

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A299

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A300

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, Er p e M er e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A301

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4

9. 5. 4. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d ( D e n d er b e k k e n)

v ali d ati o n

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0 ( D e n d er b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A302

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V07 M O G288020

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

23100000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 8

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 7 7), (' Ki', 4 9. 2 7), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 1. 2 3), (' g 0', 1 8 5. 2 3), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0 4), (' K _r u n', 2 5. 9 4), (' P _ m a x', 6 4 4. 0 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 0 9)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 8 %

2 4. 4 %

- 1 6. 4 %

0. 4 8 5

- 0. 4 5 8

0. 5 3 7

N S _l o g

0. 5 1 5

- 0. 1

0. 4 4 1

N S _r el

- 2. 9 5 8

- 4. 0 5 4

0. 5 8 3

K GE

0. 7 0 2

0. 2 4 5

0. 6 4 4

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 7. 9 %

2 9. 5 %

- 2 4. 1 %

0. 5 0 8

- 0. 0 3 6

0. 4 6 5

N S _l o g

0. 6 9 8

0. 4 6 7

0. 1 5 3

N S _r el

0. 3 7 5

- 0. 0 1

0. 5 8 4

K GE

0. 6 9 8

0. 4 8

0. 6 0 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A303

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0, st ati o n 2 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, G er a ar ds b er g e n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0, st ati o n 2 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, G er a ar ds b er g e n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A304

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0, st ati o n 2 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, G er a ar ds b er g e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0, st ati o n 2 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, G er a ar ds b er g e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A305

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0, st ati o n 2 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, G er a ar ds b er g e n

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0, st ati o n 2 8 8 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, G er a ar ds b er g e n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A306

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5

9. 5. 5. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d ( D e n d er b e k k e n)

v ali d ati o n

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" W 0 7 D E NL E S 9 9 9"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9 ( D e n d er b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A307

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W 0 7 D E NL E S 9 9 9

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

77319091

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

1 5- 0 1- 2 0 0 8

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 1 0

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 3), (' Ki', 1 0 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 1. 1 3), (' g 0', 5 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 7. 2), (' P _ m a x', 3 5 0. 0)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 2 %

5 5. 2 %

- 1 4. 9 %

- 0. 2 2 7

- 1 0. 7 0 7

0. 6 6

N S _l o g

0. 3 6 6

- 1. 0 4 1

0. 1 5

N S _r el

0. 4 6 6

- 1. 1 0 2

0. 6 3 6

K GE

0. 2 9 4

- 1. 8 8 6

0. 6 8 5

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

5. 9 %

3. 1 %

- 1 8. 7 %

- 1. 3 2 6

- 3 2. 8 3 6

0. 3 0 4

N S _l o g

0. 3 5 1

- 1. 2 0 7

- 0. 0 1 9

N S _r el

- 0. 1 1

- 3. 1 7 6

0. 5 4 5

K GE

- 0. 1 2 4

- 4. 1 5 8

0. 4 8 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A308

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9, st ati o n L essi n es( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9, st ati o n L essi n es ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A309

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9, st ati o n L essi n es ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9, st ati o n L essi n es ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A310

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 0 7 D E N L E S 9 9 9, st ati o n L essi n es

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A311

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 5

A 312

D e n d er b e k k e n A ut o c ali br ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

Fi n al v ersi o n

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1 9. 5. 1. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 7 B E L 2 8 5 0 7 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 2 3- 3 5) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A313

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 7 B EL 2 8 5 0 7 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

88700000

st art _ d at e

20001010000

e n d _ d at e

200412310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5 0 2 6, 2 0. 0 3 4 7, 0. 0 0 1 5 8 3, 0. 9 9 8, 4 9. 4 0 3 5 6, 2 9 9. 3 8 2 9, 1 4. 0 9 2 5, 4 7 0. 4 1 5 1 6]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 2, 1 6. 0, 0. 0 0 1 2, 0. 7 9, 3 9. 0, 2 3 9. 0, 1 1. 0, 3 7 6. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 8, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 3 5 9. 0, 1 6. 0, 5 7 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5 0 2 6), (' Ki', 2 0. 0 3 4 7), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1 5 8 3), (' Kss', 0. 9 9 8), (' g 0', 4 9. 4 0 3 5 6), (' g _ m a x', 2 9 9. 3 8 2 9), (' K _r u n', 1 4. 0 9 2 5), (' P _ m a x', 4 7 0. 4 1 5 1 6)] I niti al fit n es s:     

R el Err: - 0. 0 2 1 A bs Err: 1 6 0 0 6 6 0. 5 9 2 K G E: 0. 7 7 5 N S _r el: 0. 7 3 1 N S: 0. 6 3 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A314

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

 

R M S E: 1 9 9 6 5 8 6. 8 7 9 N S _l o g: 0. 7 5 5

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 5: 4 6: 0 2. 8 7 4 0 0 0 9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 3 8 6), (' Ki', 2 0. 7 5 6), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 7 9), (' g 0', 7 1. 0 7 6), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 6. 1 3 6), (' K _r u n', 1 3. 0 0 9), (' P _ m a x', 4 7 0. 4 9)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 0 4 A bs Err: 7 4 3 7 1 5. 9 4 5 K G E: 0. 7 8 2 N S _r el: 0. 6 9 8 N S: 0. 6 1 8 R M S E: 9 1 3 9 5 8. 2 3 5 N S _l o g: 0. 7 5 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A315

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A316

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A317

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A318

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 1. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 3 8 6, 2 0. 7 5 6, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 9, 7 1. 0 7 6, 3 0 6. 1 3 6, 1 3. 0 0 9, 4 7 0. 4 9] : [ 7 4 3 7 1 5. 9 4 5, 0. 7 5 8] 1 : [ 1. 3 7 8, 2 0. 0 3 1, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 4 6, 7 0. 9 5 3, 3 0 8. 8 1 7, 1 3. 0 9 6, 4 6 9. 5 4 2] : [ 1 5 3 0 6 2 1. 2 9 2, 0. 7 6] 2 : [ 1. 3 9 6, 1 9. 5 8 3, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 8 3, 7 2. 7 8 3, 3 0 5. 8 8 4, 1 3. 1 5 8, 4 7 1. 0 1 4] : [ 8 0 7 4 9 9. 1 2 6, 0. 7 6]

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A319

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2 9. 5. 2. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M A R 2 8 9 0 1 5 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 0 2 0- 0 3) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A320

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V07 M AR289015

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

173900000

st art _ d at e

200901010000

e n d _ d at e

201212310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A321

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 7 5. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 1, 1 1 0. 0, 5 5 0. 0, 5. 5, 6 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 2, 6 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 8, 0. 8, 8 8. 0, 4 4 0. 0, 4. 4, 4 8 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 8, 9 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 1. 2 1 2, 1 3 2. 0, 6 6 0. 0, 6. 6, 7 2 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 7 5. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 0 1), (' g 0', 1 1 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 5 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 5. 5), (' P _ m a x', 6 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 0 1 A bs Err: 3 1 0 5 8 0 1. 9 7 8 K G E: 0. 6 9 2 N S _r el: 0. 2 1 9 N S: 0. 3 6 9 R M S E: 3 9 3 3 6 4 5. 7 7 8 N S _l o g: 0. 5 4 3

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 6: 1 8: 0 8. 5 9 6 0 0 0 9. 5. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 6 0 1), (' Ki', 6 6. 9 9 3), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 1 8 7), (' g 0', 1 0 2. 7 8 7), (' g _ m a x', 5 3 6. 8 8 1), (' K _r u n', 4. 8 5 2), (' P _ m a x', 6 0 4. 5 0 7)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 7 A bs Err: 3 1 5 1 2 5 1. 4 1 4 K G E: 0. 7 2 6 N S _r el: 0. 3 0 6 N S: 0. 4 3 8 R M S E: 3 6 3 3 1 3 1. 1 2 4 N S _l o g: 0. 5 6 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A322

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A323

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A324

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A325

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A326

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 6 0 2, 6 3. 0 2 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 1 2, 1 0 3. 9 0 7, 5 4 1. 6 6 7, 4. 5 8 1, 6 0 4. 9 2 6] : [ 3 3 4 5 6 2 9. 7 5 1, [ 1. 8, 6 3. 9 7 9, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 3 8, 1 0 3. 6 9 9, 5 4 7. 8 9 7, 4. 5 6 1, 5 9 9. 9 4 5] : [ 6 7 7 7 5 7 7. 0 8 3, [ 1. 5 9 3, 6 6. 9 0 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 1 2, 1 0 3. 7 6 8, 5 3 4. 2 9 5, 5. 1 2, 5 9 4. 9 5 4] : [ 3 6 7 9 9 8 8. 8 9 4, [ 1. 6 0 1, 6 3. 0 5 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 1 2, 1 0 3. 4 1 7, 5 3 7. 8 0 8, 4. 5 8 2, 6 0 5. 0 9 5] : [ 2 9 5 0 8 4 7. 5 4 5, [ 1. 6 0 1, 6 6. 9 9 3, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 8 7, 1 0 2. 7 8 7, 5 3 6. 8 8 1, 4. 8 5 2, 6 0 4. 5 0 7] : [ 3 1 5 1 2 5 1. 4 1 4, [ 1. 6 7, 6 3. 8 5 7, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 1 2, 1 0 3. 9 0 2, 5 4 2. 6 5 3, 4. 5 5 7, 6 0 4. 5 9 2] : [ 4 2 9 6 0 8 1. 3, [ 1. 8, 6 6. 4 7 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8, 1 0 3. 5 9 9, 5 3 5. 4 3 1, 5. 0 7 8, 5 9 5. 0 1 5] : [ 9 2 2 4 6 6 3. 3 5, [ 1. 6 6 7, 6 6. 1 0 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 1 2, 1 0 2. 9 7, 5 4 0. 1 9 3, 4. 6 9 3, 6 0 4. 5 4 4] : [ 4 3 4 0 3 1 1. 6 4 3, [ 1. 8, 6 5. 2 7 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 1 2, 1 0 2. 8 8, 5 3 6. 9 9 3, 5. 1 8 7, 6 0 5. 0 6 7] : [ 9 3 8 9 2 1 5. 3 5 9, [ 1. 5 9 8, 6 1. 5 8 6, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 8, 1 0 9. 2 8 4, 5 4 8. 1 0 4, 4. 9 7 6, 5 8 7. 7 8 7] : [ 4 0 6 5 1 3 4. 5 7 8,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 5 6 7] 0. 5 9 4] 0. 5 7 2] 0. 5 6] 0. 5 6 5] 0. 5 8] 0. 5 9 7] 0. 5 8] 0. 5 9 8] 0. 5 7 2]

A327

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3 9. 5. 3. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O E 2 8 2 1 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 2 3- 1 7) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A328

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V07 M OE282100

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

46400000

st art _ d at e

200501010000

e n d _ d at e

200912310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 3. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 5 5. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0, 9 5. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 2 2. 0, 1 9 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 8, 4 4. 0, 0. 0 0 0 8, 0. 1, 7 6. 0, 2 4 0. 0, 1 5. 0, 1 5 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 1. 5, 2 0 0. 0, 5 0 0. 0, 4 0. 0, 6 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 5 5. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 0), (' g 0', 9 5. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 2 2. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 9 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:     

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 A bs Err: 9 7 0 5 2 5. 7 8 7 K G E: 0. 5 3 2 N S _r el: 0. 6 6 7 N S: 0. 3 6 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A329

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

 

R M S E: 1 1 9 0 1 4 2. 3 5 5 N S _l o g: 0. 5 2

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 5: 2 5: 0 6. 0 2 5 0 0 0 9. 5. 3. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 8 3 1), (' Ki', 6 7. 9 3 5), (' K g', 0. 0 0 6), (' Kss', 1. 2 1 5), (' g 0', 1 3 4. 1 0 8), (' g _ m a x', 3 3 5. 9 5 2), (' K _r u n', 2 2. 5 6 8), (' P _ m a x', 2 6 3. 3 1 5)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 1 A bs Err: 6 8 1 8 7 7. 3 0 2 K G E: 0. 5 3 5 N S _r el: 0. 8 7 2 N S: 0. 4 4 R M S E: 8 5 2 6 9 3. 6 8 8 N S _l o g: 0. 6 8 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A330

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A331

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A332

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A333

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A334

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 9 5 9, 6 6. 5 9 9, 0. 0 0 8, 1. 0 1 3, 1 4 2. 0 2 2, 3 3 1. 6 6 7, 1 9. 4 3 3, 2 7 6. 1 5 8] : [ 6 5 4 6 4 2. 0 7, [ 1. 8 9 1, 6 8. 1 4 2, 0. 0 0 7, 1. 5, 1 0 2. 7 6 9, 3 2 4. 2 2 4, 2 2. 9 3 5, 2 3 9. 0 4 2] : [ 6 6 5 8 1 9. 8 4 4, [ 1. 8 0 4, 6 8. 2 2 7, 0. 0 0 6, 0. 6 5 4, 1 2 9. 3 2 6, 3 5 0. 7 7 1, 1 9. 6 6 6, 2 7 6. 5 0 9] : [ 6 9 6 2 0 7. 8 6 6, [ 1. 8 8 1, 6 8. 5 7 4, 0. 0 0 7, 1. 0, 1 0 2. 4 3 2, 3 1 5. 2 4 4, 2 2. 7 5 6, 2 3 9. 0 3 4] : [ 6 6 1 7 8 4. 0 4 9, [ 1. 8 1 7, 6 7. 8 3 5, 0. 0 0 6, 0. 3 3 4, 1 3 9. 7 4, 3 5 5. 7 0 8, 1 8. 6 0 4, 2 7 4. 0 2 7] : [ 7 0 5 0 6 4. 2 7 1, [ 1. 8 8 1, 6 9. 3 0 7, 0. 0 0 7, 1. 0, 1 0 2. 4 3 2, 3 1 5. 5 4 4, 2 2. 7 5 6, 2 3 9. 0 3 4] : [ 6 6 0 4 2 1. 7 6 9, [ 1. 8 9 2, 6 6. 8 5 4, 0. 0 0 7, 0. 1, 1 0 2. 9 0 2, 3 2 3. 5 4 3, 2 1. 0 4 6, 2 7 0. 7 0 9] : [ 6 6 7 3 1 1. 8 8, [ 1. 8 3 1, 6 7. 9 3 5, 0. 0 0 6, 1. 2 1 5, 1 3 4. 1 0 8, 3 3 5. 9 5 2, 2 2. 5 6 8, 2 6 3. 3 1 5] : [ 6 8 1 8 7 7. 3 0 2, [ 1. 8 8 8, 6 9. 3 1 7, 0. 0 0 7, 1. 0 8 5, 1 0 2. 7 4 6, 3 1 5. 2 0 5, 2 2. 7 8 8, 2 3 9. 0 2 9] : [ 6 5 5 1 7 0. 6 7 7, [ 1. 8 8, 6 8. 7 1 4, 0. 0 0 7, 0. 1, 1 0 1. 5 4 6, 3 1 5. 7 2 8, 2 3. 2 4, 2 4 0. 2 3 6] : [ 6 6 5 4 0 6. 5 2 5, : [ 1. 9 5 9, 6 7. 5 9, 0. 0 0 8, 1. 0 1 3, 1 4 4. 2 2 4, 3 3 2. 9 2 2, 1 9. 4 3 3, 2 7 7. 3 4 7] : [ 6 5 4 5 0 4. 7 6, : [ 1. 8 8 8, 6 9. 1 2 9, 0. 0 0 7, 0. 1, 1 2 2. 3 2, 3 1 5. 1 7 8, 2 2. 7 4 9, 2 4 9. 4 7 2] : [ 6 5 8 6 9 1. 3 4 8, : [ 1. 8 6 9, 6 8. 3 9, 0. 0 0 7, 0. 9 4 2, 1 1 0. 4 8 8, 3 2 3. 4 3, 1 9. 1 1 8, 2 4 6. 3 3 1] : [ 6 7 2 3 6 1. 4 1 3,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 6 5] 0. 6 7 6] 0. 6 9 1] 0. 6 7 3] 0. 6 9 2] 0. 6 7 3] 0. 6 7 7] 0. 6 8 8] 0. 6 7 1] 0. 6 7 4] 0. 6 6 5] 0. 6 7 1] 0. 6 7 9]

A335

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4 9. 5. 4. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 2 2- 0 0) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A336

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V07 M O G288020

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

23100000

st art _ d at e

200501010000

e n d _ d at e

200910300000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 4. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A337

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5 9, 4 2. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2, 1 8 7. 0, 3 4 0. 0, 2 6. 6 1 2, 6 9 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 2, 3 2. 0, 0. 0 0 0 8, 0. 9 6, 1 5 0. 0, 2 7 0. 0, 2 0. 0, 5 3 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 4 5 0. 0, 3 0. 0, 7 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5 9), (' Ki', 4 2. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 2), (' g 0', 1 8 7. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 4 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 2 6. 6 1 2), (' P _ m a x', 6 9 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 6 4 A bs Err: 5 3 7 5 8 9. 5 7 8 K G E: 0. 6 9 5 N S _r el: - 3. 5 7 6 N S: 0. 5 0 5 R M S E: 6 1 2 1 4 3. 7 3 5 N S _l o g: 0. 4 8 5

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 4: 0 7: 0 0. 6 5 3 0 0 0 9. 5. 4. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 7 7 4), (' Ki', 4 9. 2 7 2), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 1. 2 3 4), (' g 0', 1 8 5. 2 3 3), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0 3 9), (' K _r u n', 2 5. 9 3 9), (' P _ m a x', 6 4 4. 0 1 5)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 5 8 A bs Err: 4 8 8 7 6 4. 0 3 K G E: 0. 7 0 2 N S _r el: - 2. 9 5 8 N S: 0. 4 8 5 R M S E: 5 6 0 4 4 0. 8 8 4 N S _l o g: 0. 5 1 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A338

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A339

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A340

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A341

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A342

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 5 8 4, 6 2. 5 7 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 4 0 4, 1 8 7. 3 6 3, 2 8 1. 4 7 4, 2 4. 5 2 2, 6 8 0. 4 8 7] : [ 1 4 7 2 6 7. 8 2 9, [ 1. 7 7 4, 4 9. 2 7 2, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 2 3 4, 1 8 5. 2 3 3, 3 0 0. 0 3 9, 2 5. 9 3 9, 6 4 4. 0 1 5] : [ 4 8 8 7 6 4. 0 3, [ 1. 6 3 5, 5 3. 7 1 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 6, 2 0 4. 1 0 8, 2 8 2. 1, 2 5. 8 2, 6 8 2. 9 3 9] : [ 4 5 6 5 5 0. 1 5 9, [ 1. 9 9 2, 4 7. 6 1 9, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 1, 1 8 6. 9 7 3, 2 9 1. 1 8 8, 2 5. 5 8 7, 6 4 2. 2 7 9] : [ 1 7 5 5 9 9 8. 2 1 9, [ 1. 7 7 2, 4 9. 2 2 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 7 8, 1 8 6. 3 8 3, 2 9 4. 6 1 2, 2 5. 1 9 1, 6 8 8. 4 3] : [ 7 4 9 7 8 6. 5 7, [ 1. 7 7 3, 5 7. 1 7 3, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 8 8 5, 1 8 6. 0 9 8, 3 0 1. 4 3 3, 2 6. 2 3 2, 6 5 2. 6 2] : [ 1 8 7 1 0 2. 6 2 6, [ 2. 0, 5 0. 7 9 9, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 9 6, 1 8 6. 0 9 9, 2 9 8. 6 1 2, 2 6. 1 9 3, 6 4 8. 1 2 4] : [ 1 3 4 7 1 2 7. 0 8 3, [ 1. 6 0 4, 5 2. 8 8 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 9 1, 1 8 9. 1 3 9, 2 8 2. 9 2 9, 2 5. 7 8 6, 6 8 3. 4 1] : [ 3 7 1 9 6 5. 1 0 2, [ 1. 6 2 7, 6 2. 2 4, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 3 4, 1 9 7. 7 4 7, 2 8 2. 7 6 4, 2 4. 4 1 5, 6 8 3. 3 8 9] : [ 3 1 1 1 7 0. 2 1 7, [ 1. 8 3, 5 1. 3 3 5, 0. 0 0 1, 2. 4 5 5, 1 8 7. 8 2 4, 2 8 3. 1 7 7, 2 4. 6 9 9, 6 6 9. 7 9 6] : [ 1 0 2 5 9 7 9. 4 9 8, : [ 2. 0, 4 4. 8 2 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 5 8, 1 8 7. 2 8 2, 2 8 8. 7 2 8, 2 5. 9 8 5, 6 4 8. 7 3 5] : [ 1 8 4 4 1 1 3. 5 1, : [ 1. 8 8 4, 4 5. 9 5 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 8 6 4, 1 8 7. 2 1, 2 9 6. 8 0 7, 2 6. 6 7 5, 6 4 6. 6 5 6] : [ 1 2 2 7 3 8 4. 8 5 9, : [ 1. 8 2, 4 9. 4 6 9, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 3 6 2, 2 0 1. 7 8 3, 2 8 6. 5 8 5, 2 6. 6 2 2, 6 7 5. 5 8 2] : [ 8 3 4 5 6 3. 0 4 2,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 4 8 6] 0. 5 1 5] 0. 5 1 2] 0. 5 6 5] 0. 5 3] 0. 4 9 4] 0. 5 6 5] 0. 5 0 6] 0. 4 9 5] 0. 5 4 7] 0. 5 7 3] 0. 5 5 7] 0. 5 4 4]

A343

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T o t al Fl o w V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0 Sl m ul at e d _i nlti al 𝑖𝑖 u g e d 0: N S E • 0. 3

2. 5

1: N S E = 0. 4 8 5 2: N S E • 0. 4 1 2

3: N S E = 0. 5 0 4 4: N S E • 0. 4 8 3

5: N S E = 0. 4 1 9

2. 0

6: N S E • 0, 4 9 6

7: N 5 E = 0. 4 1 7 8: N S E = 0. 3 1 6 9: N S E = 0. 4 7 3 1 0: N S E • 0. 5 1 6 1 1: N S E

𝑥𝑥 0. 5 1 1

1 2: N S E • 0. 4 8 7

C u m ul a ti v e T o t al Fl o w V 0 7 M O G 2 8 8 0 2 0

1. 8 l e 7 G 𝑖𝑖 u g e d

Si m ul at è d _i nitl ál O: A 𝑃𝑃 𝑖𝑖r r = 1 4 7 2 6 7. 8 𝑛𝑛 9 l: A 𝑖𝑖 Err = 𝑂𝑂 8 8 7 6 4. 0 3

2: Ab s Err = 4 5 6 5 5 0. 1 5 9 3: Ab s Err = 1 7 5 5 9 9 8. 2 1 9 4: A 𝑖𝑖 Er r 𝑂𝑂 1 4 9 7 8 6. 5 7 5: A 𝑛𝑛 Er r = 1 8 7 1 0 2. 6 2 6

1, 2

7: Ab s Er r = 3 7 1 9 6 5. 1 0 2 8: Ab s Err = 3 1 1 1 7 0. 2 1 7 9: Ab s Err = 1 0 2 5 9 7 9. 4 9 8 𝐸𝐸

1 0; A b s Err • 1 8 4 4 1 1 3. 5 1

0. 8

I l: Ab s Er r • 1 2 2 7 3 S 4 . 8 5 9

𝑂𝑂 U

1 2: A b S Er r " 8 3 4 5 6 3. 0 4 2 0. 6

0 .4

0. 2 0. 0 𝑥𝑥

𝑑𝑑

M ar '2 0 0 5

𝑥𝑥 - - -

Sep 2005

𝐵𝐵 -

M ar 2 0 0 6

𝑥𝑥 - - 𝐴𝐴

Sep 2006

- -

M ar 2 0 0 7

𝑦𝑦 - -

Sep 2007

-' - -

M ar 2 0 0 8

𝐵𝐵

Sep 2008

𝑦𝑦

- -

M ar 2 0 0 9

𝐴𝐴'

Sep 2009

Ti m e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A344

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 6 Dijl e a n d Z e n n e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n .

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 345

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

9. 5. 1. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

WET

p ar a m et ers

f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0 ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A346

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V08B AR111370

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

69900000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 7

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 1 4), (' Ki', 5 0. 5 9), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 5. 0), (' g 0', 7 0. 5 2), (' g _ m a x', 2 3 7. 6 2), (' K _r u n', 4. 0), (' P _ m a x', 7 1. 6 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

2. 5 %

2 8. 7 %

- 4. 1 %

0. 5 6 2

- 0. 5 3 5

0. 6 3 2

N S _l o g

0. 7 2 5

0. 5 7

0. 6 9 8

N S _r el

0. 6 0 1

0. 5 1 3

0. 7 4 5

K GE

0. 7 8 2

0. 1 4 8

0. 7 0 5

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 7 - 2 0 0 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

6. 1 %

2 7. 4 %

- 0. 3 %

0. 5 7 3

- 0. 4 8 3

0. 6 5 9

N S _l o g

0. 7 4

0. 5 8 5

0. 7 2

N S _r el

0. 6 3 1

0. 5 4 3

0. 7 4 7

K GE

0. 7 8 7

0. 1 6 8

0. 7 1 2

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A347

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0, st ati o n 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2B ar e b e e k( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0, st ati o n 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2B ar e b e e k ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A348

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0, st ati o n 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2B ar e b e e k ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0, st ati o n 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2B ar e b e e k ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A349

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0, st ati o n 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 2- B ar e b e e k

9. 5. 2

9. 5. 2. 1

Fi n al r e p ort

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

WET

p ar a m et ers

f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0"

I n p ut d at a

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A350

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

9. 5. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

886900000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 8

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 2 9), (' Ki', 8. 9 1), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 9), (' g 0', 1 6 3. 4 7), (' g _ m a x', 4 4 4. 7 9), (' K _r u n', 6. 8 2), (' P _ m a x', 2 0 6. 1 5)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 7 4 - 1 9 8 9)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 1 %

- 1. 6 %

0. 2 %

0. 3 2 9

0. 1 5 5

0. 3 5 5

N S _l o g

0. 3 9 4

0. 2 2 6

0. 4 9 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A351

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

N S _r el

0. 5 6 9

0. 5 4 8

0. 5 9 9

K GE

0. 6 7 9

0. 6 0 8

0. 6 4 6

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 7. 0 %

- 2 0. 1 %

- 2. 7 %

0. 1 8 7

- 0. 0 2 9

0. 2 8

N S _l o g

0. 2 0 3

- 0. 1 3 3

0. 4 3 9

N S _r el

0. 3 9 8

0. 5 1 5

0. 5 6 6

K GE

0. 6

0. 5 2 5

0. 6 1 9

9. 5. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0, st ati o n u n k o w n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A352

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0, st ati o n u n k o w n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A353

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

9. 5. 3

9. 5. 3. 1

Fi n al r e p ort

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 8 Z U U 2 3 3 1 0 0"

I n p ut d at a

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A354

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Z U U 2 3 3 1 0 0 ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

9. 5. 3. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V08Z U U233100

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

64800000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 6

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 0

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 8 1), (' Ki', 2 0. 3 3), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 7), (' g 0', 1 7 7. 1 8), (' g _ m a x', 3 1 8. 5 9), (' K _r u n', 2 0. 7 3), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 6. 2 7)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 6 - 2 0 1 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 5 %

- 4. 6 %

- 8. 0 %

0. 5 4 8

- 0. 0 3 7

0. 5 6 8

N S _l o g

0. 5 9 2

0. 1 7 8

0. 6 1 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A355

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

N S _r el

0. 3 4 3

0. 6 1 3

0. 6 7 8

K GE

0. 6 2 8

0. 3 4 2

0. 5 7

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 6 - 1 9 9 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 5 %

1. 4 %

- 3. 3 %

0. 6 3

0. 4 7

0. 6 1 3

N S _l o g

0. 6 6 4

0. 5 2

0. 6 7 3

N S _r el

0. 5 0 4

0. 6 5

0. 4 3 9

K GE

0. 5 9 6

0. 4 2 2

0. 5 5

9. 5. 3. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Z U U 2 3 3 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 3 1 0 1 0 2 Z u u n b e e k, St Pi et ersl e e u w( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A356

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Z U U 2 3 3 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 3 1 0 1 0 2 Z u u n b e e k, St Pi et ersl e e u w ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Z U U 2 3 3 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 3 1 0 1 0 2 Z u u n b e e k, St Pi et ersl e e u w ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A357

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Z U U 2 3 3 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 3 1 0 1 0 2 Z u u n b e e k, St Pi et ersl e e u w ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Z U U 2 3 3 1 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 3 1 0 1 0 2 - Z u u n b e e k, St Pi et er sl e e u w

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A358

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4

9. 5. 4. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt " W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 "

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A359

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W08S A M R O N000

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

133600000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 9

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 7 3), (' Ki', 1. 2), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 1. 7), (' g 0', 2 4 9. 6 6), (' g _ m a x', 6 4 6. 5), (' K _r u n', 5. 1 5), (' P _ m a x', 2 0 9. 3 7)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 1 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 5 %

8. 8 %

- 1 1. 0 %

0. 7 3 9

0. 3 4 4

0. 6 8 5

N S _l o g

0. 6 1 6

0. 4 6 8

0. 5 4 9

N S _r el

0. 7 6 5

0. 7 4 6

0. 7 0 3

K GE

0. 8 4 6

0. 6 2 5

0. 7 5 8

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 9 - 2 0 0 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 6 %

1 1. 6 %

- 9. 0 %

0. 7 5 3

0. 6 1 9

0. 7 2 2

N S _l o g

0. 7 4 4

0. 6 6 8

0. 6 1 4

N S _r el

0. 8 4 7

0. 8 5

0. 7 9 4

K GE

0. 8 0 8

0. 7 9 5

0. 7 7 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A360

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 7 1- 1 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 7 11 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A361

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 7 1- 1 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 7 11 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A362

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 7 1- 1 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 7 1- 1 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A363

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0, st ati o n 2 3 7 1- 1 0 0 5 0 S a m m e, R o n q ui er es

9. 5. 5

9. 5. 5. 1

Fi n al r e p ort

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" W 0 8 S E N L 5 6 0 1 0"

I n p ut d at a

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A364

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N L 5 6 0 1 0 ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

9. 5. 5. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W 0 8 S E NL 5 6 0 1 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

70400000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 7 9

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 8 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 2 6), (' Ki', 1 8 3. 8), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 2. 6), (' g 0', 1 2 4. 4), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 4. 2 9), (' K _r u n', 8. 7 9), (' P _ m a x', 2 6 8. 3 5)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 1 - 1 9 9 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 2 %

- 1 8. 3 %

- 0. 8 %

0. 5 4

0. 0 4 8

0. 6 0 4

N S _l o g

0. 4 5 4

- 0. 0 5 3

0. 6 9 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A365

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

N S _r el

0. 7 1 9

0. 8 4 8

0. 7 2

K GE

0. 6 5 5

0. 4 5 2

0. 5 8 3

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 7 9 - 1 9 8 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 0 %

- 1 6. 5 %

- 9. 8 %

0. 5 0 4

0. 4 4 4

0. 4 2 9

N S _l o g

0. 5 7 5

0. 2 4 9

0. 5 8 6

N S _r el

0. 6 7

0. 7 8 1

0. 7 4 7

K GE

0. 5 7 7

0. 4 8 1

0. 4 3 7

9. 5. 5. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N L 5 6 0 1 0, st ati o n L 5 6 7 0 - S e n ett e, R o n q ui er es( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A366

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N L 5 6 0 1 0, st ati o n L 5 6 7 0 S e n ett e, R o n q ui er es ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N L 5 6 0 1 0, st ati o n L 5 6 7 0 - S e n ett e, R o n q ui er es ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A367

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N L 5 6 0 1 0, st ati o n L 5 6 7 0 S e n ett e, R o n q ui er es ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

9. 5. 6

9. 5. 6. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n)

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0 ( Dijl e/ Z e n n e b e k k e n) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A368

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W08SE NT U B030

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

215900000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 1

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 6

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 2. 1 2), (' Ki', 5 2. 5 2), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 7), (' g 0', 1 1 6. 5 5), (' g _ m a x', 4 2 6. 1 4), (' K _r u n', 6. 1 3), (' P _ m a x', 1 6 3. 9 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 1)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 5 %

- 1 6. 1 %

- 1 0. 3 %

0. 7 1 1

0. 0 0 5

0. 6 3 2

N S _l o g

0. 5 8 1

- 0. 1 0 2

0. 4 6 8

N S _r el

0. 8 2 8

0. 6 7

0. 5 8 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A369

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

K GE

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

0. 7 7 4

0. 4 5 1

0. 6 0 3

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 6)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 2. 8 %

- 1 5. 7 %

0. 5 %

0. 7 5 3

0. 2 8 3

0. 7 3 6

N S _l o g

0. 4 5 6

- 1. 5 5 6

0. 6 9 3

N S _r el

0. 8 5 1

0. 7 2 8

0. 6 8 2

K GE

0. 8 2

0. 5 8

0. 7 3 4

9. 5. 6. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0, st ati o n 1 9 5 1- 1 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A370

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0, st ati o n 1 9 5 11 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0, st ati o n 1 9 5 1- 1 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A371

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0, st ati o n 1 9 5 11 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0, st ati o n 1 9 5 1- 1 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A372

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0, st ati o n 1 9 5 1- 1 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0, st ati o n 1 9 5 1- 1 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A373

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 0: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0, st ati o n 1 9 5 1- 1 0 0 5 0 Z e n n e, T u biz e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A374

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 7

Fi n al v ersi o n

Dijl e a n d Z e n n e A ut o c ali br ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 375

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1 9. 5. 1. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 8 B A R 1 1 1 3 7 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 0 1 6- 0 8) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A376

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V08B AR111370

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

69900000

st art _ d at e

199801010000

e n d _ d at e

200312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 3, 3. 5, 5 0. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 2. 2, 6 5. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 8, 3 0. 0, 0. 0 0 2 4, 2. 8, 4 0. 0, 1 5 8. 0, 1. 8, 4 5. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 5, 1 2 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 5. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 4. 0, 2 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 5 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 3. 5), (' g 0', 5 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 2 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 2. 2), (' P _ m a x', 6 5. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 3 3 A bs Err: 2 4 7 8 3 9 8. 0 8 8 K G E: 0. 7 1 9 N S _r el: 0. 5 1 8 N S: 0. 4 1 9 R M S E: 2 9 0 7 7 0 7. 6 3 9 N S _l o g: 0. 6 8 8

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A377

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 2: 1 0: 4 9. 3 3 0 0 0 0 9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 1 3 6), (' Ki', 5 0. 5 9 6), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 5. 0), (' g 0', 7 0. 5 2), (' g _ m a x', 2 3 7. 6 2 9), (' K _r u n', 4. 0), (' P _ m a x', 7 1. 6 1 2)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 2 5 A bs Err: 2 2 2 6 1 7 6. 6 4 8 K G E: 0. 7 8 2 N S _r el: 0. 6 0 1 N S: 0. 5 6 2 R M S E: 2 7 4 7 2 9 9. 8 7 4 N S _l o g: 0. 7 2 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A378

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A379

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A380

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A381

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 1. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 0 4 1, 1 : [ 1. 2 0 9, 2 : [ 1. 0 4 6, 3 : [ 1. 1 3 6, 4 : [ 1. 1 6 7, 5 : [ 1. 1 5 1,

Fi n al r e p ort

5 0. 0 1 2, 0. 0 0 3, 4. 0 1 2, 5 8. 8 7 4, 2 0 6. 9 4 3, 2. 5 8 6, 7 6. 0 0 9] : [ 2 0 2 1 9 8 6. 7 1 6, 4 8. 8 8 5, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 5 3 3, 7 2. 1 2 3, 2 2 2. 7 5, 3. 8 6 1, 7 5. 2 7 8] : [ 2 7 4 4 9 0 7. 7 8 2, 8 2. 5 0 9, 0. 0 0 3, 3. 5 6 3, 6 4. 9 5 5, 2 2 1. 1 2 2, 3. 7 6 7, 6 9. 9 3] : [ 1 9 9 6 8 5 2. 1 7 5, 5 0. 5 9 6, 0. 0 0 3, 5. 0, 7 0. 5 2, 2 3 7. 6 2 9, 4. 0, 7 1. 6 1 2] : [ 2 2 2 6 1 7 6. 6 4 8, 5 1. 8 9 3, 0. 0 0 4, 4. 7 2 9, 7 3. 3 8, 2 3 5. 1 3 1, 3. 5 1 6, 8 2. 5 5 7] : [ 2 2 6 3 3 7 1. 8 7 1, 5 0. 7, 0. 0 0 3, 4. 2 5 6, 7 1. 3 9 2, 2 3 2. 7 0 6, 3. 9 8 7, 7 4. 6 4 6] : [ 2 2 9 0 1 3 8. 7 4 3,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 7 0 5] 0. 7 3] 0. 6 9 1] 0. 7 2 5] 0. 7 2 7] 0. 7 2 7]

A382

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A383

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2 9. 5. 2. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 7 2 1- 5 3) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 2. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A384

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 8 Dij 0 9 3 4 0 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

886900000

st art _ d at e

197401010000

e n d _ d at e

198912310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 2 5, 8. 0, 0. 0 0 1 1, 1. 1 5, 1 6 0. 0, 4 2 0. 0, 5. 0, 2 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 5, 4. 0, 0. 0 0 0 6, 0. 5, 8 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 2. 5, 1 0 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 5, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 4. 0, 2 7 0. 0, 7 0 0. 0, 8. 0, 4 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 2 5), (' Ki', 8. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1 1), (' Kss', 1. 1 5), (' g 0', 1 6 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 4 2 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 5. 0), (' P _ m a x', 2 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 2 2 9 A bs Err: 3 1 4 7 0 8 5 9 6. 5 4 9 K G E: 0. 4 9 7 N S _r el: 0. 0 2 N S: - 0. 1 6 2 R M S E: 3 6 1 0 4 0 9 1 1. 4 6 N S _l o g: 0. 2 0 9

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 4: 4 4: 5 6. 5 6 9 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A385

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 2 8 7), (' Ki', 8. 9 1 9), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 9), (' g 0', 1 6 3. 4 7 4), (' g _ m a x', 4 4 4. 7 9 1), (' K _r u n', 6. 8 2), (' P _ m a x', 2 0 6. 1 5 7)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 1 A bs Err: 2 8 5 7 1 6 5 5. 2 8 2 K G E: 0. 6 7 9 N S _r el: 0. 5 6 9 N S: 0. 3 2 9 R M S E: 3 9 4 0 2 1 6 1. 8 1 N S _l o g: 0. 3 9 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A386

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A387

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A388

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A389

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4

: : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 2 3 9, [ 1. 2 6 6, [ 1. 2 8 7, [ 1. 2 5 2, [ 1. 2 7 4,

Fi n al r e p ort

9. 5 0 6, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 7 7 5, 7. 1 4 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 5 4 5, 8. 9 1 9, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9, 8. 6 6, 0. 0 0 1, 3. 1 1 7, 8. 7 9 6, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 1 4,

1 6 3. 5 9 9, 1 6 9. 8 2 4, 1 6 3. 4 7 4, 1 6 5. 0 1 9, 1 6 3. 6 1 2,

4 2 2. 1 1, 4 3 4. 6 2 3, 4 4 4. 7 9 1, 4 3 8. 0 0 4, 4 3 9. 3 5 7,

6. 6 3 8, 6. 2 8 7, 6. 8 2, 5. 6 5 2, 5. 9 5 3,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

2 0 5. 9 9 8] : [ 1 0 4 3 8 6 0 4 1. 7 6 3, 2 2 2. 8 7 1] : [ 2 6 5 9 7 3 9 8. 8 3 9, 2 0 6. 1 5 7] : [ 2 8 5 7 1 6 5 5. 2 8 2, 2 0 5. 6 1 6] : [ 2 3 9 9 2 3 0 4. 8 8 9, 2 0 5. 0 0 2] : [ 2 5 7 7 5 9 2 1. 8 4 3,

0. 4 2 5] 0. 3 8 2] 0. 3 9 4] 0. 3 5 5] 0. 3 6 6]

A390

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3 9. 5. 3. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 8 Z U U 2 3 3 1 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 5 1 4- 0 6) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 3. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A391

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V08Z U U233100

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

64800000

st art _ d at e

199601010000

e n d _ d at e

201212310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 3. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 1 5. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 9, 6 5. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 2 0. 0, 1 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 7 5, 7. 5, 0. 0 0 0 1, 0. 3, 3 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 5. 0, 5 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 2, 1 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 5. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 5 0 0. 0, 3 0. 0, 3 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 1 5. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 0 9), (' g 0', 6 5. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 2 0. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 2 2 1 A bs Err: 2 7 3 8 2 6 5 6. 7 5 1 K G E: 0. 5 0 4 N S _r el: 0. 5 1 1 N S: 0. 4 9 9 R M S E: 3 2 4 3 3 9 7 3. 1 3 6 N S _l o g: 0. 6 2 1

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 2 0: 3 8: 0 6. 0 9 7 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A392

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 8 1 5), (' Ki', 2 0. 3 3 2), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 0. 7), (' g 0', 1 7 7. 1 8 3), (' g _ m a x', 3 1 8. 5 9 8), (' K _r u n', 2 0. 7 3 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 6. 2 7 6)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 5 5 A bs Err: 7 7 7 2 1 0 0. 4 1 1 K G E: 0. 6 2 8 N S _r el: 0. 3 4 3 N S: 0. 5 4 8 R M S E: 9 8 4 3 0 6 4. 9 9 6 N S _l o g: 0. 5 9 2

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A393

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A394

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A395

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A396

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 3. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 5, 1 5. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 9, 6 5. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 2 0. 0, 1 0 0. 0] : [ 2 7 3 8 2 6 5 6. 7 5 1, 1 : [ 1. 5, 1 4. 7 3 6, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 9 9, 6 5. 0, 3 0 0. 0 2 8, 2 0. 0, 1 0 0. 0] : [ 2 7 7 0 4 6 3 9. 2 6 5, 2 : [ 1. 3 9 9, 2 2. 8 1 4, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 9 2, 7 0. 6 4 1, 3 0 7. 3 6 5, 1 9. 9 2 8, 2 1 1. 4 7 9] : [ 4 3 0 5 2 8 8. 2 1 2, 3 : [ 1. 8 2 1, 1 9. 7 0 3, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 1 2 2, 1 7 7. 7 1 3, 3 1 8. 2 8 6, 2 0. 0 5 1, 1 4 1. 4 7 7] : [ 1 4 5 6 4 9 8 3. 9 0 1, 4 : [ 1. 8 1 5, 2 0. 3 3 2, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 7, 1 7 7. 1 8 3, 3 1 8. 5 9 8, 2 0. 7 3 5, 1 5 6. 2 7 6] : [ 7 7 7 2 1 0 0. 4 1 1, 5 : [ 1. 7 7 3, 6 0. 9 5 4, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 7 6 5, 1 0 5. 6 5 7, 3 0 5. 6 0 3, 2 1. 1 4 2, 1 7 2. 9 9 5] : [ 3 7 3 3 4 0 0. 9 0 6, 6 : [ 1. 8 7 5, 5 7. 3 0 5, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 1 9 1, 1 0 8. 1 9, 3 1 3. 7 0 6, 2 0. 9 5 6, 1 9 6. 3 5 2] : [ 4 0 1 1 5 3 2. 1 6 3, 7 : [ 1. 7 0 8, 1 5. 6 0 3, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 6 2 3, 7 1. 3 5 4, 3 0 2. 2 9 8, 2 0. 7 8 4, 1 1 9. 6 6 9] : [ 1 9 6 9 0 4 7 2. 6 4 1, 8 : [ 1. 7 5 9, 4 1. 4 3 4, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 3, 8 4. 1 2, 3 0 5. 4 4 8, 2 1. 1 3 4, 1 5 8. 1 4 8] : [ 6 7 7 7 4 2 1. 7 0 8, 9 : [ 1. 5 0 4, 1 5. 2 0 9, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 3 7, 7 0. 7 2 2, 2 9 9. 8 8 9, 2 0. 0 0 3, 1 1 1. 0 5 3] : [ 1 4 4 4 3 5 1 6. 0 4 4, 1 0 : [ 1. 4 7 3, 1 5. 9 6 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 6 8, 6 8. 0 4 4, 3 0 1. 8 9 1, 2 1. 8 6 5, 1 1 6. 6 0 9] : [ 1 5 6 1 4 5 1 4. 2 4 2, 1 1 : [ 1. 6 6 3, 1 5. 2 0 5, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 3, 7 0. 8 5 2, 3 0 0. 8 2 6, 2 0. 0 4 6, 1 1 3. 9 6 1] : [ 1 7 4 5 5 3 0 7. 3 7 3,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 2 1] 0. 6 2 1] 0. 5 5 7] 0. 6 0 5] 0. 5 9 2] 0. 5 0 2] 0. 5 1 7] 0. 6 1] 0. 5 6 1] 0. 5 9 9] 0. 6 0 7] 0. 6 0 7]

A397

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A398

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4 9. 5. 4. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S A M R O N 0 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 9 0 6- 3 2) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 4. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A399

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W08S A M R O N000

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

133600000

st art _ d at e

200501010000

e n d _ d at e

201012310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 4. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 7 1 2 1 8, 1. 0, 0. 0 0 0 7, 1. 6 2 1 3, 2 5 0. 0, 6 0 1. 0 0 5, 5. 0, 1 9 9. 7 6 5]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 3 6, 0. 8, 0. 0 0 0 5 6, 1. 2 9, 2 0 0. 0, 4 8 0. 0, 4. 0, 1 5 9. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 1. 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 9, 3 0 0. 0, 7 2 1. 0, 6. 0, 2 4 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 7 1 2 1 8), (' Ki', 1. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 0 7), (' Kss', 1. 6 2 1 3), (' g 0', 2 5 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 6 0 1. 0 0 5), (' K _r u n', 5. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 9 9. 7 6 5)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 8 3 A bs Err: 7 7 5 6 4 7 1. 8 3 2 K G E: 0. 8 5 3 N S _r el: 0. 7 9 9 N S: 0. 7 2 6 R M S E: 9 2 2 1 5 2 9. 4 5 4 N S _l o g: 0. 5 9 6

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 2: 3 7: 3 2. 6 6 9 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A400

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 7 3 2), (' Ki', 1. 2), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 7 0 1), (' g 0', 2 4 9. 6 6 1), (' g _ m a x', 6 4 6. 4 9 5), (' K _r u n', 5. 1 4 8), (' P _ m a x', 2 0 9. 3 7 2)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 0 5 A bs Err: 2 5 6 1 4 8 8. 4 0 6 K G E: 0. 8 4 6 N S _r el: 0. 7 6 5 N S: 0. 7 3 9 R M S E: 3 2 9 1 2 1 2. 1 9 1 N S _l o g: 0. 6 1 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A401

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A402

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A403

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A404

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A405

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: : : : : : : : : :

[ 1. 7 1, 0. 9 4 9, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 1 6, 2 5 5. 1 0 8, 6 5 6. 1 0 3, 5. 0 4, 2 1 5. 3 9 4] : [ 2 5 1 4 9 4 7. 9 2 9, [ 1. 6 9 6, 0. 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 8 9 5, 2 5 0. 8 6, 6 4 7. 3 6 9, 4. 1 0 6, 2 2 4. 6 4 1] : [ 2 0 6 2 6 6 5. 4 1 6, [ 1. 7 3 2, 1. 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 7 0 1, 2 4 9. 6 6 1, 6 4 6. 4 9 5, 5. 1 4 8, 2 0 9. 3 7 2] : [ 2 5 6 1 4 8 8. 4 0 6, [ 1. 6 7 7, 1. 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 7 6 7, 2 5 4. 2 7 6, 6 3 8. 7 7 2, 5. 1 4 3, 2 1 9. 3 5 7] : [ 3 5 5 7 8 3 7. 9 6 5, [ 1. 7 3 5, 1. 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 9, 2 5 1. 8 3 1, 6 2 0. 0 3 2, 5. 5 0 9, 2 1 5. 5 6 2] : [ 6 3 8 3 0 8 4. 6 3, [ 1. 7 1, 0. 9 4 9, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 9, 2 5 5. 3 3 8, 6 5 8. 0 4 8, 5. 0 5 5, 2 1 6. 4 3 4] : [ 2 5 0 0 6 4 0. 6 3 5, [ 1. 7 1 8, 1. 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 7 8, 2 5 3. 8 0 2, 6 3 6. 6 9 6, 5. 5 4 4, 2 1 6. 6 6 3] : [ 7 7 2 1 7 4 0. 3 5 5, [ 1. 7 4, 0. 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 2 9, 2 4 9. 9 7 7, 6 5 6. 9 4 3, 4. 3 9 1, 2 1 5. 1 9 6] : [ 2 3 1 8 8 4 3. 7 2 3, [ 1. 7 2 7, 1. 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 8 1, 2 5 4. 7 8 8, 6 3 7. 5 9 4, 6. 0, 2 2 4. 1 7 8] : [ 1 0 4 0 9 3 4 7. 6 4, [ 1. 7 3 6, 1. 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 9, 2 5 8. 1 4 1, 6 2 1. 3, 5. 4 6 1, 2 2 6. 9 9 7] : [ 6 8 3 1 8 4 3. 3 4 4, : [ 1. 7 1 1, 1. 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 8 0 8, 2 5 4. 2 8, 6 4 7. 3 3, 5. 2 1 7, 2 1 6. 5 3] : [ 3 8 9 8 5 2 8. 7 7 4, : [ 1. 6 9 9, 0. 9 5 6, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 8 6 8, 2 5 0. 9 8 1, 6 4 4. 6 2 8, 4. 6 9 5, 2 1 8. 7 6 2] : [ 2 4 6 0 6 0 2. 9 7, : [ 1. 6 7 7, 1. 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 7 6 7, 2 5 3. 8 8 7, 6 3 8. 7 7 2, 5. 1 4 3, 2 1 7. 5 3 4] : [ 3 5 4 9 0 5 4. 1 6 2,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 0 5] 0. 4 9] 0. 6 1 6] 0. 6 2 7] 0. 6 3 5] 0. 6 0 4] 0. 6 4] 0. 5 4 8] 0. 6 4 2] 0. 6 3 6] 0. 6 2 9] 0. 5 9] 0. 6 2 7]

A406

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5 9. 5. 5. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N L 5 6 0 1 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 1 4- 4 1) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A407

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W 0 8 S E NL 5 6 0 1 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

70400000

st art _ d at e

199101010000

e n d _ d at e

199712310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 5. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A408

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 3 6, 1 6. 7 7, 0. 0 0 1 1, 1. 4 0 7, 8 1. 5 9, 2 7 8. 0, 7. 5, 1 6 7. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 0 8 8, 1 3. 4 1 6, 0. 0 0 0 7, 1. 1 2, 6 5. 2, 2 2 2. 4, 6. 0 1, 1 3 3. 6]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 6 3, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 5. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 4 0 0. 0, 9. 0, 4 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 3 6), (' Ki', 1 6. 7 7), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1 1), (' Kss', 1. 4 0 7), (' g 0', 8 1. 5 9), (' g _ m a x', 2 7 8. 0), (' K _r u n', 7. 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 6 7. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 2 5 2 A bs Err: 1 3 9 9 4 3 3 3. 1 9 5 K G E: 0. 5 3 2 N S _r el: 0. 8 1 3 N S: 0. 4 7 1 R M S E: 1 7 4 0 0 1 8 2. 1 4 1 N S _l o g: 0. 0 5 9

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 4: 0 6: 1 2. 4 1 4 0 0 0 9. 5. 5. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 2 5 8), (' Ki', 1 8. 8 4 7), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 2. 6 0 8), (' g 0', 1 2 4. 4 5 2), (' g _ m a x', 2 8 4. 2 9 3), (' K _r u n', 8. 7 9 4), (' P _ m a x', 2 6 8. 3 4 6)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 1 2 A bs Err: 2 4 2 0 6 1 5. 4 2 K G E: 0. 6 5 5 N S _r el: 0. 7 1 9 N S: 0. 5 4 R M S E: 2 6 5 9 2 4 0. 4 1 5 N S _l o g: 0. 4 5 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A409

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A410

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A411

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A412

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

: : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 3 1 9, [ 1. 2 1 5, [ 1. 2 8 8, [ 1. 2 7 9, [ 1. 2 1 9, [ 1. 2 5 8, [ 1. 2 5 8,

Fi n al r e p ort

5 8. 4 9 1, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 0 8 9, 1 2 4. 4 7 7, 3 2 3. 7 8 2, 9. 0, 2 8 4. 1 5 8] : [ 2 2 9 7 1 9 8. 4 1 2, 1 5. 3 4 1, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 4 5 8, 1 2 2. 5 0 7, 2 6 0. 7 8 5, 8. 4 8 7, 2 8 0. 9 7 5] : [ 2 3 8 7 5 0 4. 0 4, 5 8. 5 6 4, 0. 0 0 2, 3. 1 5 2, 1 2 7. 2 4 3, 3 1 3. 9 7 7, 7. 7 4 1, 2 7 9. 6 1 5] : [ 2 2 7 4 6 0 2. 1 8 5, 3 3. 5 0 4, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 4 6 6, 1 2 4. 6 1 5, 3 1 8. 4 8 4, 8. 1 5, 2 7 9. 2 8 2] : [ 2 3 9 3 8 4 7. 1 3 8, 2 4. 9 8 6, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 3 9 8, 1 1 2. 1 2 3, 2 9 7. 6 7 6, 8. 4 0 7, 2 8 3. 9 7 8] : [ 3 8 2 3 2 0 0. 0 3, 3 5. 0 1, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 7 5 2, 1 2 3. 9 6 5, 2 9 5. 0 5 9, 8. 2 2 8, 2 8 2. 7 5 3] : [ 2 3 4 6 6 4 5. 8 5 1, 1 8. 8 4 7, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 6 0 8, 1 2 4. 4 5 2, 2 8 4. 2 9 3, 8. 7 9 4, 2 6 8. 3 4 6] : [ 2 4 2 0 6 1 5. 4 2,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 3 2 8] 0. 4 3 9] 0. 3 1 2] 0. 4 4 4] 0. 4 6 2] 0. 4 1 7] 0. 4 5 4]

A413

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6 9. 5. 6. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 0 8 S E N T U B 0 3 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 0 4- 3 5) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 6. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A414

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W08SE NT U B030

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

215900000

st art _ d at e

200701010000

e n d _ d at e

201112310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 6. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 2 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 1. 2, 9 0. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 5. 5, 7 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 2, 1 6. 0, 0. 0 0 0 3, 0. 7, 7 0. 0, 2 4 0. 0, 4. 1, 5 6. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 5, 3 0 0. 0, 0. 0 1 5, 1. 8, 1 3 5. 0, 5 0 0. 0, 8. 2 5, 2 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 2 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 2), (' g 0', 9 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 5. 5), (' P _ m a x', 7 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 2 8 4 A bs Err: 4 1 6 1 7 3 9 0. 0 2 9 K G E: 0. 5 6 7 N S _r el: 0. 5 9 1 N S: 0. 6 2 5 R M S E: 5 3 2 0 7 0 6 0. 0 6 6 N S _l o g: 0. 4 4 2

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 1: 0 8: 0 8. 7 7 4 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A415

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 2. 1 2 1), (' Ki', 5 2. 5 1 7), (' K g', 0. 0 1 1), (' Kss', 0. 7), (' g 0', 1 1 6. 5 5 5), (' g _ m a x', 4 2 6. 1 4 4), (' K _r u n', 6. 1 2 6), (' P _ m a x', 1 6 3. 9 0 5)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 5 A bs Err: 1 0 5 7 9 0 5 7. 4 8 1 K G E: 0. 7 7 4 N S _r el: 0. 8 2 8 N S: 0. 7 1 1 R M S E: 1 2 2 9 7 0 8 7. 3 7 2 N S _l o g: 0. 5 8 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A416

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A417

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A418

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A419

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A420

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 2. 1 1 8, 5 3. 8 1 9, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 3 8 6, 1 1 8. 3 0 3, 4 3 2. 6 3 4, 5. 4 3, 1 5 6. 5 9 1] : [ 1 0 7 8 3 1 2 0. 9 7 9, 0. 5 8 5] 1 : [ 1. 9 9, 6 5. 2, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 8, 1 1 8. 3 7 5, 4 3 4. 9 4 5, 8. 2 5, 1 5 7. 5 0 2] : [ 1 2 6 4 8 3 4 9. 2 8 6, 0. 6 0 1] 2 : [ 1. 9 3 7, 6 1. 0 6 3, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 2 6 3, 1 2 2. 1 8 4, 4 3 3. 1 2 3, 6. 5 3 3, 1 6 0. 8 6 8] : [ 1 3 9 8 4 1 7 2. 0 3 5, 0. 6 0 9] 3 : [ 2. 0 8, 3 9. 4 9 1, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 0 4, 1 1 7. 3 9 7, 4 2 2. 7 4 2, 6. 3 3 7, 1 6 7. 2 1] : [ 1 0 9 8 9 9 3 6. 7 0 1, 0. 5 9] 4 : [ 1. 9 5 8, 6 0. 9 1 8, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 3 1, 1 2 4. 3 2 6, 4 3 5. 5 1 7, 7. 3 5 7, 1 6 0. 2 4 3] : [ 1 3 4 0 3 0 7 5. 7 0 6, 0. 6 0 7] 5 : [ 2. 0 9 3, 6 2. 6 4 9, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 2 4 8, 1 2 0. 6 9 6, 4 3 0. 7 5 8, 6. 1 7 9, 1 6 0. 0 4 5] : [ 1 0 9 1 2 4 0 5. 5 3 7, 0. 5 8 7] 6 : [ 1. 9 9 7, 5 9. 7 8 4, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 5 5, 1 1 6. 5 1 4, 4 3 4. 0 5 1, 5. 9 2 1, 1 6 1. 4 8 2] : [ 1 2 8 4 6 6 4 5. 1 3 4, 0. 6 0 5] 7 : [ 2. 1 2 1, 5 2. 5 1 7, 0. 0 1 1, 0. 7, 1 1 6. 5 5 5, 4 2 6. 1 4 4, 6. 1 2 6, 1 6 3. 9 0 5] : [ 1 0 5 7 9 0 5 7. 4 8 1, 0. 5 8 1] 8 : [ 2. 0 5 6, 7 2. 5 8, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 4 9 6, 1 2 0. 1 0 8, 4 3 4. 4 6 5, 6. 1 4 1, 1 6 1. 9 6 5] : [ 1 1 6 4 4 9 2 2. 9 9 8, 0. 5 9 2] 9 : [ 2. 0 9 3, 6 2. 6 4 9, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 7 3 5, 1 2 0. 6 9 6, 4 3 1. 6 0 4, 6. 1 7 9, 1 6 2. 1 3 7] : [ 1 0 9 2 8 4 8 7. 4 6 8, 0. 5 8 8] 1 0 : [ 2. 0 9 3, 6 2. 6 4, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 1 6 6, 1 2 0. 8 5 4, 4 3 1. 0 4, 6. 1 7 9, 1 6 1. 7 4 2] : [ 1 0 9 1 3 8 2 8. 1 8 8, 0. 5 8 7] 1 1 : [ 2. 1 6 5, 6 0. 9 4 4, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 2 2 9, 1 2 0. 7 0 1, 4 2 6. 6 0 8, 5. 0 6 8, 1 6 0. 1 2 2] : [ 1 0 4 6 0 1 4 9. 5 6 7, 0. 5 6] 1 2 : [ 2. 1 3 2, 6 1. 1 4 1, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 2 4 5, 1 1 9. 0 7 7, 4 2 6. 2 2 5, 7. 0 4 2, 1 6 0. 1 8 3] : [ 1 0 4 9 7 6 5 2. 1 9 5, 0. 5 6 8] 1 3 : [ 2. 0 8, 3 8. 4 9 7, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 0 4, 1 1 7. 3 9 7, 4 2 1. 4 5 1, 6. 3 3 7, 1 6 6. 8 4] : [ 1 0 9 7 7 2 9 5. 2 3 2, 0. 5 8 9] 1 4 : [ 2. 1 1 9, 5 3. 8 3 8, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 5 3 1, 1 1 7. 0 7, 4 3 0. 3 3 2, 5. 5 3 2, 1 6 1. 8 0 8] : [ 1 0 7 1 7 8 3 6. 2 1 1, 0. 5 8 4] 1 5 : [ 2. 1 3 5, 6 1. 1 2, 0. 0 1 1, 1. 4 6, 1 1 8. 4 6 9, 4 3 1. 7 1 7, 6. 1 4 6, 1 6 0. 0 3 8] : [ 1 0 5 0 8 8 3 4. 0 1 2, 0. 5 7 7]

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A421

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A422

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 8

Fi n al v ersi o n

D e m er b e k k e n C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 423

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1

9. 5. 1. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d ( D e m er b e k k e n)

v ali d ati o n

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n)

Fi g ur e 2: A n n u al c u m ul at e d dis c h ar g e (r e d) a n d s c al e d pr e ci pit ati o n ( bl u e) a c c or di n g t o r u n off r ati o (t ot al Q/t ot al P) a n d W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5 A424 c u m ul ati v e p ot e nti al e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n ( gr e e n) o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 DE M136000

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

255100000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 9

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 8 6), (' Ki', 8 1. 9 5), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 7 9), (' g 0', 1 4 0. 9), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 9), (' K _r u n', 5. 2 3), (' P _ m a x', 1 6 3. 8 2)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 1 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

7. 8 %

7. 1 %

1 5. 6 %

- 0. 4 7 7

- 0. 9 8 8

- 0. 0 1 5

N S _l o g

0. 4 5 4

- 0. 0 1 8

0. 5 8 2

N S _r el

0. 7 1 8

0. 5 2 8

0. 4 8 8

K GE

0. 0 2 1

- 0. 1 8 6

0. 3 7 2

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 9 - 2 0 0 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 1 %

- 1 9. 8 %

1 5. 6 %

0. 3 8 8

0. 0 2 4

0. 2 8

N S _l o g

0. 0 4 5

- 1. 7 4 8

0. 7 0 8

N S _r el

0. 6 0 9

0. 3 2

0. 7 3

K GE

0. 4 6 4

0. 2 9 6

0. 3 9 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A425

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 D e m er; H ass elt( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 D e m er; H ass elt ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A426

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 D e m er; H ass elt ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 D e m er; H ass elt ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A427

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - D e m er; H ass elt

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - D e m er; H ass elt

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A428

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0, st ati o n 1 3 6 1 0 1 0 2 - D e m er; H ass elt

9. 5. 2 9. 5. 2. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 9 G E T 1 5 2 0 8 0 " ( D e m er b e k k e n) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 G E T 1 5 2 0 8 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A429

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 GET152080

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

800400000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 6 9

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 9

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 0. 1 5), (' Ki', 4 2. 5), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 9 7), (' g 0', 1 8 4. 8 2), (' g _ m a x', 6 2 5. 1 9), (' K _r u n', 9. 0 9), (' P _ m a x', 5 2 1. 8 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 6. 6 %

1 4. 1 %

- 2 6. 6 %

0. 2 7 4

- 0. 0 0 6

0. 0 8 8

N S _l o g

0. 2 7 6

- 0. 3 4

0. 2 5 5

N S _r el

0. 4 1 1

- 0. 3 5

0. 7 2

K GE

0. 2 1 6

0. 2 6 2

0. 1 2 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A430

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 9 9)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 8 %

4 4. 2 %

- 2 4. 8 %

0. 3 2 4

- 0. 1 7 9

0. 1 3 7

N S _l o g

0. 3 1 8

- 0. 8 8 6

0. 3 1 3

N S _r el

0. 3 8 1

- 0. 5 4 7

0. 6 7 5

K GE

0. 2 6 3

0. 2 2 4

0. 1 8 5

9. 5. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 G E T 1 5 2 0 8 0, st ati o n 1 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 G et e; H al e n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A431

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 G E T 1 5 2 0 8 0, st ati o n 1 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 G et e; H al e n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 G E T 1 5 2 0 8 0, st ati o n 1 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 G et e; H al e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A432

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 G E T 1 5 2 0 8 0, st ati o n 1 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 G et e; H al e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 G E T 1 5 2 0 8 0, st ati o n 1 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - G et e; H al e n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A433

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3 9. 5. 3. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0 " ( D e m er b e k k e n) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A434

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 HE R163010

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

274600000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 6

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 0

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 2 4. 9 9), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 9 9), (' g 0', 1 6 6. 3 3), (' g _ m a x', 4 8 3. 1 3), (' K _r u n', 5. 4 3), (' P _ m a x', 2 2 6. 8 6)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 3. 5 %

1 6. 6 %

- 1 6. 6 %

0. 4 5 9

0. 1 3 2

0. 6 3 3

N S _l o g

0. 6 9 5

0. 5 2 3

0. 5 2 8

N S _r el

0. 8 2 5

0. 7 4 1

0. 7 4 7

K GE

0. 7 0 7

0. 4 2 2

0. 7 8 9

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 6 - 2 0 0 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 7 %

1 5. 8 %

- 1 6. 1 %

0. 1 4 3

- 0. 9 5 2

0. 7 0 1

N S _l o g

0. 7 2 9

0. 6 6

0. 7 0 5

N S _r el

0. 8 1 4

0. 8 2 3

0. 8 1 6

K GE

0. 4 8 9

- 0. 0 7 3

0. 7 7 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A435

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0, st ati o n 1 6 3 1 0 1 0 2 H er k, K er mt( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0, st ati o n 1 6 3 1 0 1 0 2 H er k, K er mt ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A436

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0, st ati o n 1 6 3 1 0 1 0 2 H er k, K er mt ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0, st ati o n 1 6 3 1 0 1 0 2 H er k, K er mt ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A437

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0, st ati o n 1 6 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H er k, K er mt

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0, st ati o n 1 6 3 1 0 1 0 2 - H er k, K er mt

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A438

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4 9. 5. 4. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0 " ( D e m er b e k k e n) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n)

9. 5. 4. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e Fi n al r e p ort

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1 W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A439

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 9 H UL 1 4 7 1 5 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

95300000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 1

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 4

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 0. 8 2), (' Ki', 8 0. 5 1), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 1. 8 6), (' g 0', 6 5. 0 9), (' g _ m a x', 3 2 9. 8 5), (' K _r u n', 1. 4 6), (' P _ m a x', 7 3. 5 5)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 0)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 1 %

9. 6 %

- 7. 8 %

- 0. 5 1 1

- 1. 8 7

0. 3 9 4

N S _l o g

0. 4 7

0. 3 4 6

0. 5 8 8

N S _r el

0. 4 5 7

0. 2 1 1

0. 7 1 7

K GE

0. 3 3 1

- 0. 1 4 3

0. 7 0 3

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 1 - 1 9 9 4)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 2. 7 %

8. 9 %

- 1 3. 6 %

- 0. 8 3 9

- 5. 7 3 9

0. 0 9 2

N S _l o g

0. 2 9 8

- 0. 3 1 3

0. 2 7

N S _r el

0. 0 0 1

- 1. 5 5 4

0. 5 7 4

K GE

0. 1 6 4

- 1. 0 5 7

0. 5 2 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A440

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0, st ati o n 1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0, st ati o n 1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A441

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0, st ati o n 1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0, st ati o n 1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A442

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0, st ati o n 1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0, st ati o n 1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A443

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0, st ati o n 1 4 7 1 0 1 0 2 - D e H ul p e; M ol e nst e d e

9. 5. 5

9. 5. 5. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d ( D e m er b e k k e n)

v ali d ati o n

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A444

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 M A N161040

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

102900000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 7

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 9 2), (' Ki', 1 3. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 9 6), (' g 0', 8 5. 1 4), (' g _ m a x', 5 6 0. 4 3), (' K _r u n', 0. 4 8), (' P _ m a x', 3 9. 1 9)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 0 9)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 0 %

- 1 4. 3 %

5. 9 %

0. 5 7 7

0. 5 9 4

0. 6 7 9

N S _l o g

0. 3 5 9

0. 2 8 7

0. 5 1 4

N S _r el

0. 4 6 5

0. 6 3

0. 4 8 7

K GE

0. 7 8 8

0. 7 9 3

0. 7 5 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A445

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 7 - 2 0 0 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 9 %

- 2. 7 %

8. 2 %

0. 7 2 4

0. 5 9 8

0. 7 8 8

N S _l o g

0. 6 7 2

0. 6 1 5

0. 7 0 3

N S _r el

0. 6 4 2

0. 6 8 4

0. 5 9 5

K GE

0. 8 6

0. 7 8 4

0. 8 6 2

9. 5. 5. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0, st ati o n 1 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 M a n g el b e e k; L u m m e n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A446

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0, st ati o n 1 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 M a n g el b e e k; L u m m e n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0, st ati o n 1 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 M a n g el b e e k; L u m m e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A447

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0, st ati o n 1 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 M a n g el b e e k; L u m m e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0, st ati o n 1 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n g el b e e k; L u m m e n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A448

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0, st ati o n 1 6 1 1 0 1 0 2 - M a n g el b e e k; L u m m e n

9. 5. 6

9. 5. 6. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d ( D e m er b e k k e n)

v ali d ati o n

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A449

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 M OT144270

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

33600000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 7

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 5 6), (' Ki', 2 0. 2 8), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 8 4), (' g 0', 2 9. 8 7), (' g _ m a x', 2 6 9. 2 7), (' K _r u n', 2. 7 8), (' P _ m a x', 4 5. 3 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

6. 0 %

- 1 0. 5 %

1 6. 5 %

0. 4 5

0. 0 5 1

0. 4 6 9

N S _l o g

0. 4 2 6

0. 1 9 4

0. 2 5 4

N S _r el

0. 5 5 1

0. 3 3 3

0. 3 0 3

K GE

0. 7 3 3

0. 5 0 3

0. 5 8 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A450

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 3 - 1 9 9 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1 4. 9 %

- 8. 8 %

2 9. 8 %

- 0. 4 1 3

- 9. 6 5 9

0. 1 4 2

N S _l o g

0. 1 6 5

- 0. 5 9 3

0. 0 8 2

N S _r el

- 0. 3 1 9

- 2. 5 8 8

- 0. 3 1 4

K GE

0. 3 0 9

- 1. 9 0 2

0. 5 8 1

9. 5. 6. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0, st ati o n 1 4 4 1 0 1 0 2 M ott e; Rill a ar( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A451

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0, st ati o n 1 4 4 1 0 1 0 2 M ott e; Rill a ar ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0, st ati o n 1 4 4 1 0 1 0 2 M ott e; Rill a ar ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A452

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0, st ati o n 1 4 4 1 0 1 0 2 M ott e; Rill a ar ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0, st ati o n 1 4 4 1 0 1 0 2 - M ott e; Rill a ar

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A453

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7 9. 5. 7. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0 " ( D e m er b e k k e n) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A454

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 9 V EL 1 4 5 1 0 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

96800000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 8 7

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 5 8), (' Ki', 1 8. 5 6), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 2. 0 5), (' g 0', 1 3 3. 9), (' g _ m a x', 2 2 8. 7 4), (' K _r u n', 7. 9), (' P _ m a x', 3 0 4. 1 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 0 9)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 5 %

- 4. 1 %

- 6. 9 %

0. 4 9 3

- 0. 2 3 8

0. 4 4 5

N S _l o g

0. 5 6 2

- 0. 1 1 4

0. 4 7 7

N S _r el

0. 6 2 6

0. 4 2 3

0. 6 4 1

K GE

0. 6 0 1

0. 3 6 2

0. 4 3 9

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 3 - 1 9 8 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 9 %

2 9. 2 %

- 4. 1 %

0. 5 4

- 0. 2 3 8

0. 5 4 5

N S _l o g

0. 4 9 1

0. 0 9 2

0. 3 9 5

N S _r el

0. 4 4 7

- 0. 0 7 3

0. 6 3 8

K GE

0. 6 6 8

0. 3 9 2

0. 6 5 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A455

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0, st ati o n 1 4 5 1 0 1 0 2 - V el p; R a ns b er g( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0, st ati o n 1 4 5 1 0 1 0 2 V el p; R a ns b er g ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A456

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0, st ati o n 1 4 5 1 0 1 0 2 - V el p; R a ns b er g ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0, st ati o n 1 4 5 1 0 1 0 2 V el p; R a ns b er g ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A457

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0, st ati o n 1 4 5 1 0 1 0 2 - V el p; R a ns b er g

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0, st ati o n 1 4 5 1 0 1 0 2 - V el p; R a ns b er g

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A458

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8 9. 5. 8. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0" ( D e m er b e k k e n) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A459

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

80015463

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 2

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 6

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 9 5), (' Ki', 1 7. 5 5), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 0. 8), (' g 0', 1 6 3. 6 5), (' g _ m a x', 2 5 2. 3 4), (' K _r u n', 3. 4 4), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 6. 4 8)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 3. 5 %

5. 9 %

- 1 2. 3 %

0. 2 5

- 0. 8 5 5

0. 4 6 5

N S _l o g

0. 6 0 3

0. 4 1 6

0. 4 7 5

N S _r el

- 2 4. 2 1 5

- 7. 8 6 4

0. 5 6 5

K GE

0. 6 1 2

0. 0 4 5

0. 7 3 2

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 2 - 1 9 9 6)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 0 1 %

- 1 5. 8 %

8. 5 %

- 0. 1 3 2

- 5. 3 8 3

0. 5 5 3

N S _l o g

0. 6 1 1

0. 4 4

0. 7 3 4

N S _r el

0. 5 3 9

0. 3 2 4

0. 8 1 7

K GE

0. 2 8 1

- 1. 2 4 1

0. 5 5 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A460

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0, st ati o n 1 4 1 - R ots el a ar ; Wi n g e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0, st ati o n 1 4 1 R ots el a ar ; Wi n g e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A461

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0, st ati o n 1 4 1 - R ots el a ar ; Wi n g e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0, st ati o n 1 4 1 R ots el a ar ; Wi n g e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A462

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0, st ati o n 1 4 1 - R ots el a ar ; Wi n g e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0, st ati o n 1 4 1 - R ots el a ar ; Wi n g e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A463

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 9

9. 5. 9. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d ( D e m er b e k k e n)

v ali d ati o n

WET

p ar a m et ers f or

c at c h m e nt

" V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0"

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0 ( D e m er b e k k e n)

9. 5. 9. 2 Fi n al rme op ort d el _str

M o d el s u m m ar y u ct ur e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ W1 E6 2T _S4-P 5A cl assi c.

p ar a ms et 1

A464

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09Z W A148120

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

96200000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 8 7

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 8 5), (' Ki', 3 0. 9 3), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 6 3), (' g 0', 1 5 2. 7 7), (' g _ m a x', 4 8 9. 9 5), (' K _r u n', 1. 0 9), (' P _ m a x', 6 8. 6 5)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 2 - 2 0 0 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

3. 6 %

- 1 8. 4 %

1 2. 7 %

0. 5 5 6

0. 1 7

0. 6 1 3

N S _l o g

0. 3 9 6

0. 0 2 3

0. 5 5

N S _r el

0. 5 5 4

0. 4 3 7

0. 5 1 4

K GE

0. 7 6 8

0. 6 0 7

0. 7 5 3

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 8 7 - 1 9 9 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 3 %

- 2 1. 8 %

3. 5 %

0. 3 9 7

0. 0 3 5

0. 1 9 7

N S _l o g

0. 5 3 2

0. 4 3 3

0. 3 9 7

N S _r el

- 1. 2 5 8

- 5. 0 6 4

0. 4 8 2

K GE

0. 7 1 2

0. 5 5 3

0. 6 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A465

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 9. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0, st ati o n 1 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 Z w art e B e e k; L u m m e n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0, st ati o n 1 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 Z w art e B e e k; L u m m e n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A466

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0, st ati o n 1 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 Z w art e B e e k; L u m m e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0, st ati o n 1 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 Z w art e B e e k; L u m m e n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A467

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0, st ati o n 1 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w art e B e e k; L u m m e n

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0, st ati o n 1 4 8 1 0 1 0 2 - Z w art e B e e k; L u m m e n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A468

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 1 9

Fi n al v ersi o n

D e m er b e k k e n A ut o c ali br ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 469

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1 9. 5. 1. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 D E M 1 3 6 0 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 5 0 7- 0 6) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A470

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 DE M136000

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

255100000

st art _ d at e

200501010000

e n d _ d at e

201012310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 9, 1. 0 5, 9 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 3. 0, 7 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 1, 2 5. 0, 0. 0 0 0 5, 0. 5, 4 5. 0, 7 5. 0, 1. 5, 3 5. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 3. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 2 7 0. 0, 4 5 0. 0, 6. 0, 3 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 5 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 0 9), (' Kss', 1. 0 5), (' g 0', 9 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 1 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 3. 0), (' P _ m a x', 7 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 1 9 6 A bs Err: 3 4 0 2 3 2 4 6. 2 2 1 K G E: 0. 0 2 2 N S _r el: 0. 4 7 6 N S: - 0. 5 1 5 R M S E: 3 7 5 6 8 4 2 8. 8 2 2 N S _l o g: - 0. 7 8 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A471

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 d a y, 1 3: 5 0: 2 9. 3 3 1 0 0 0 9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 8 6 6), (' Ki', 8 1. 9 5 5), (' K g', 0. 0 0 5), (' Kss', 1. 7 9 4), (' g 0', 1 4 0. 9 2 3), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 9 0 5), (' K _r u n', 5. 2 3), (' P _ m a x', 1 6 3. 8 6 9)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 7 8 A bs Err: 1 3 4 7 9 4 0 7. 9 6 5 K G E: 0. 0 2 1 N S _r el: 0. 7 1 8 N S: - 0. 4 7 7 R M S E: 1 5 4 4 0 2 8 7. 4 9 N S _l o g: 0. 4 5 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A472

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A473

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A474

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A475

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A476

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 9 9 4, [ 1. 8 6 6, [ 1. 9 7 9, [ 2. 1 8 5, [ 1. 6 2 2, [ 1. 7 2 9, [ 1. 8 6 3, [ 1. 8 8 5, [ 1. 6 6 8, [ 1. 5 4 9,

Fi n al r e p ort

8 3. 2 9 6, 8 1. 9 5 5, 8 8. 3 1 5, 8 6. 9 7 2, 8 6. 1 4 7, 9 4. 3 3 2, 8 2. 0 9 2, 8 8. 1 7 9, 8 8. 7 5 2, 8 2. 9 2 8,

0. 0 0 6, 0. 6 7, 1 0 1. 7 0 9, 2 9 9. 3 4 1, 3. 0 6 9, 1 1 6. 7 5 8] : [ 9 7 9 0 0 9 9. 2 1, 0. 0 0 5, 1. 7 9 4, 1 4 0. 9 2 3, 3 0 0. 9 0 5, 5. 2 3, 1 6 3. 8 6 9] : [ 1 3 4 7 9 4 0 7. 9 6 5, 0. 0 0 6, 1. 8 0 2, 1 3 1. 8 4, 3 0 2. 2 1 7, 3. 1 7 4, 2 4 8. 2 4 7] : [ 1 2 7 6 1 2 4 3. 5 8 6, 0. 0 0 6, 1. 3 4 7, 1 3 1. 2 2 6, 3 1 5. 2 1 1, 5. 3 6 5, 2 4 7. 0 1 4] : [ 2 6 9 6 0 0 0. 2 0 6, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 5, 1 4 0. 3 6 5, 3 1 6. 2 8 7, 3. 1 5 3, 1 8 7. 1 3 4] : [ 4 4 5 2 8 4 8 6. 8 9 4, 0. 0 0 6, 2. 4 9 4, 1 4 9. 4 1 2, 3 1 8. 8 7 6, 3. 1 7 3, 2 4 1. 2 8 7] : [ 4 2 8 1 8 2 2 0. 2 5 1, 0. 0 0 5, 1. 7 2 9, 1 3 0. 2 2, 2 9 9. 8 1 4, 3. 6 9 7, 1 6 0. 1 7 5] : [ 1 6 6 5 9 1 5 6. 2 0 5, 0. 0 0 6, 0. 8 8 8, 1 3 3. 2 6 6, 3 1 7. 2 6 3, 4. 2 9, 2 4 7. 0 8 9] : [ 2 4 9 9 9 0 9 2. 7 9 1, 0. 0 0 6, 2. 4 7 8, 1 4 0. 6 5 1, 3 1 8. 2 4, 3. 1 3 1, 1 9 8. 3 5 2] : [ 4 3 4 8 7 4 1 2. 5 9 3, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 6 4 6, 1 4 5. 6 0 9, 2 4 8. 6 7 5, 4. 9 0 1, 1 6 6. 1 6 8] : [ 3 2 7 8 7 1 7 4. 4 6 9,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 3 4 3] 0. 4 5 4] 0. 3 6 9] 0. 2 1 8] 0. 5 6 6] 0. 5 3 9] 0. 4 6 1] 0. 5 0 1] 0. 5 5 8] 0. 5 3 3]

A477

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2 9. 5. 2. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 G E T 1 5 2 0 8 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 7 2 0- 3 0) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 2. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A478

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 GET152080

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

800400000

st art _ d at e

200001010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 0. 5, 5 5. 8 6, 0. 0 1 2, 1. 9 5 1, 8 6. 5 7, 2 9 7. 2 9, 8. 8, 2 9 4. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 1, 2 7. 0, 0. 0 0 0 9, 0. 9 7, 4 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 3. 0, 1 4 7. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 3. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 0. 0 5, 6. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 7 5 0. 0, 1 5. 0, 6 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 0. 5), (' Ki', 5 5. 8 6), (' K g', 0. 0 1 2), (' Kss', 1. 9 5 1), (' g 0', 8 6. 5 7), (' g _ m a x', 2 9 7. 2 9), (' K _r u n', 8. 8), (' P _ m a x', 2 9 4. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 3 4 5 A bs Err: 3 7 2 2 7 1 5 7 1. 7 0 9 K G E: 0. 2 1 6 N S _r el: 0. 7 1 2 N S: 0. 1 0 5 R M S E: 4 0 6 2 6 2 6 0 5. 8 2 2 N S _l o g: 0. 0 8 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A479

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 8: 3 7: 1 5. 2 5 3 0 0 0 9. 5. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 0. 1 5 1), (' Ki', 4 2. 4 9 7), (' K g', 0. 0 1 3), (' Kss', 0. 9 7), (' g 0', 1 8 4. 8 2 4), (' g _ m a x', 6 2 5. 1 8 9), (' K _r u n', 9. 0 8 7), (' P _ m a x', 5 2 1. 8 1)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 6 6 A bs Err: 7 2 3 9 2 3 5 8. 4 3 6 K G E: 0. 2 1 6 N S _r el: 0. 4 1 1 N S: 0. 2 7 4 R M S E: 8 4 5 5 7 3 8 2. 2 4 5 N S _l o g: 0. 2 7 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A480

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A481

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A482

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A483

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 2. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 0. 1 5 3, 1 1 0. 0 8 2, 0. 0 1 3, 0. 9 8 1, 1 6 6. 8 3 4, 5 0 8. 0 1, 1 1. 4 1 3, 5 4 7. 4 3 8] : [ 1 9 7 2 1 8 4 9 6. 8 7, 0. 4 4 1] 1 : [ 0. 1 1 8, 6 9. 7 9 5, 0. 0 1 6, 1. 1 1 7, 1 8 5. 5 5 9, 4 9 5. 7 0 4, 9. 2 8 8, 5 2 1. 8 4 1] : [ 1 1 3 7 9 0 3 4 5. 6 5 5, 0. 3 7] 2 : [ 0. 1 5 1, 4 2. 4 9 7, 0. 0 1 3, 0. 9 7, 1 8 4. 8 2 4, 6 2 5. 1 8 9, 9. 0 8 7, 5 2 1. 8 1] : [ 7 2 3 9 2 3 5 8. 4 3 6, 0. 3 1 8] 3 : [ 0. 1 2 9, 8 9. 7 8 4, 0. 0 1 5, 0. 9 7, 1 8 7. 8 2 1, 6 2 2. 3 1 5, 1 0. 4 0 7, 5 3 0. 3 1 6] : [ 1 5 3 4 9 7 1 9 2. 5 6 1, 0. 4 1 5] 4 : [ 0. 1, 5 2. 7 5 2, 0. 0 1 4, 1. 3 3 5, 1 7 7. 0, 4 6 6. 4 5 9, 9. 7 4 4, 5 2 2. 7 9 5] : [ 6 3 1 9 1 9 6 1. 1 7 8, 0. 2 9 4] 5 : [ 0. 1, 4 7. 1 2 8, 0. 0 1 5, 1. 5 6 2, 2 0 0. 8 8 9, 4 2 6. 5 5 2, 9. 5 5 1, 4 7 4. 3 7 8] : [ 5 4 9 7 1 9 1 7. 7 2, 0. 2 6 1] 6 : [ 0. 1 3 8, 4 9. 5 6 3, 0. 0 1 5, 1. 0, 1 8 5. 8 1 6, 6 4 1. 4 5 8, 8. 6 5 5, 5 0 7. 3 8 7] : [ 8 2 8 6 9 1 2 6. 4 3 5, 0. 3 3] 7 : [ 0. 1 2 2, 4 6. 6 1 7, 0. 0 1 4, 1. 0 3 6, 1 8 6. 8 5 9, 5 8 8. 4 7 2, 8. 1 9 2, 5 1 7. 9 9 7] : [ 6 7 2 2 2 0 0 7. 3 2 9, 0. 3 0 2] 8 : [ 0. 1 1 5, 6 1. 1 4 1, 0. 0 1 5, 1. 2 0 6, 2 0 0. 7 4 8, 4 8 5. 9 5 6, 9. 0 6 4, 4 7 7. 9 1 1] : [ 9 3 9 4 4 2 8 7. 3 2 9, 0. 3 4 5] 9 : [ 0. 1 0 4, 5 8. 9 4 1, 0. 0 1 5, 1. 0, 1 8 8. 0 7 8, 4 7 6. 7 0 9, 9. 0 6 7, 5 1 2. 1 2 7] : [ 8 1 2 6 4 3 5 4. 9 7, 0. 3 2 6] 1 0 : [ 0. 1 6 6, 6 4. 0 1 5, 0. 0 1 5, 1. 1 9 2, 1 8 8. 7 6 7, 6 0 0. 4 0 4, 1 1. 7 5 3, 5 2 0. 4 2 8] : [ 1 2 9 2 6 7 8 3 6. 2 0 2, 0. 3 9 8] 1 1 : [ 0. 1 0 1, 5 4. 2 1 9, 0. 0 1, 1. 4 6 4, 1 7 7. 5 5 2, 4 5 2. 3 3 4, 9. 7 6 3, 5 2 2. 2 1 4] : [ 6 8 0 4 1 0 6 2. 7 9 4, 0. 3 0 8] 1 2 : [ 0. 1, 4 1. 8 2, 0. 0 1 6, 0. 9 7 6, 1 8 5. 0 9 4, 5 6 6. 7 4 6, 1 1. 3 7 1, 5 3 7. 7 7 5] : [ 5 1 6 1 9 2 7 8. 4 4 2, 0. 2 2 2] 1 3 : [ 0. 1 2 8, 1 0 5. 6 4 2, 0. 0 1 3, 0. 9 8 1, 2 0 1. 8 4 8, 5 8 9. 3 7 2, 1 1. 1 5 4, 5 0 0. 0 1] : [ 1 7 4 7 5 1 6 7 9. 5 4, 0. 4 3 4] 1 4 : [ 0. 1 2 8, 7 0. 8 9 7, 0. 0 1 5, 0. 9 7, 1 8 5. 4 0 1, 5 7 8. 9 4, 9. 1 9 9, 5 2 0. 6 1 7] : [ 1 2 3 2 9 6 7 9 3. 2 9 2, 0. 3 8 2] 1 5 : [ 0. 1 0 9, 6 8. 2 3 3, 0. 0 1 5, 1. 0 7 7, 1 8 6. 4 3 8, 4 9 0. 8 9 6, 9. 0 6 4, 5 1 2. 9 7 4] : [ 1 0 5 1 9 8 5 3 3. 9 3 1, 0. 3 6] 1 6 : [ 0. 1 3 8, 5 9. 5 3 7, 0. 0 1 5, 0. 9 8 9, 1 8 4. 9 6 8, 5 3 2. 3 8 7, 9. 1 8 5, 5 2 1. 8 2 5] : [ 1 0 6 0 9 6 7 7 9. 8 3 8, 0. 3 6 4] 1 7 : [ 0. 1, 4 7. 1 0 3, 0. 0 1 5, 1. 1 0 1, 1 9 7. 6 5, 4 8 6. 3 6 2, 8. 1 9 1, 5 0 4. 2 9 8] : [ 5 7 9 4 3 6 6 9. 9 8 9, 0. 2 7 6]

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A484

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A485

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3 9. 5. 3. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H E R 1 6 3 0 1 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 9 0 7- 4 2) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 3. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A486

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 HE R163010

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

274600000

st art _ d at e

200801010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 3. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 3 1, 1 9. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 1 8, 1 8 0. 0, 4 5 0. 0, 5. 0, 1 5 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 0, 1 5. 0, 0. 0 0 0 8, 0. 1, 1 2 0. 0, 3 5 0. 0, 3. 0, 1 1 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 5, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 1. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 5 5 0. 0, 7. 0, 2 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 3 1), (' Ki', 1 9. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 1 8), (' g 0', 1 8 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 4 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 5. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 5 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 9 1 A bs Err: 1 3 0 1 4 5 1 0. 6 8 6 K G E: 0. 6 7 6 N S _r el: 0. 8 1 3 N S: 0. 3 9 5 R M S E: 1 3 6 5 2 3 8 4. 6 5 7 N S _l o g: 0. 6 1 8

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 3: 3 9: 5 1. 9 7 8 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A487

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 4 9 6), (' Ki', 2 4. 9 8 8), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 0. 9 9 2), (' g 0', 1 6 6. 3 3 3), (' g _ m a x', 4 8 3. 1 3 2), (' K _r u n', 5. 4 2 7), (' P _ m a x', 2 2 6. 8 6 2)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 3 5 A bs Err: 5 6 7 6 9 6 1. 5 8 9 K G E: 0. 7 0 7 N S _r el: 0. 8 2 5 N S: 0. 4 5 9 R M S E: 7 8 8 7 2 7 8. 8 0 1 N S _l o g: 0. 6 9 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A488

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A489

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A490

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A491

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A492

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 5, 2 3. 5 4 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0, 1 6 3. 9 7 3, 4 8 6. 3 4 2, 4. 2 8 7, 2 2 6. 6 6 5] : 1 : [ 1. 5, 2 2. 5 2 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 8 5 3, 1 6 4. 4 9 3, 4 8 6. 3 4 2, 4. 2 8 7, 2 2 6. 6 6 5] : 2 : [ 1. 4 9 6, 2 4. 9 8 8, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 9 9 2, 1 6 6. 3 3 3, 4 8 3. 1 3 2, 5. 4 2 7, 2 2 6. 8 6 2] : 3 : [ 1. 4 4 8, 2 4. 9 8 8, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 4 0 3, 1 6 6. 8 3 5, 4 8 3. 1 7 3, 6. 1 5 2, 2 2 6. 6 4] :

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

[ 5 4 9 8 7 7 9. 3 7 5, [ 5 5 9 3 2 8 1. 7 2 3, [ 5 6 7 6 9 6 1. 5 8 9, [ 5 9 9 4 9 8 8. 7 8 1,

0. 6 3 4] 0. 6 3 6] 0. 6 9 5] 0. 6 9 9]

A493

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4 9. 5. 4. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 H U L 1 4 7 1 5 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 5 1 9- 1 5) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 4. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A494

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 9 H UL 1 4 7 1 5 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

95300000

st art _ d at e

200001010000

e n d _ d at e

201012310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 4. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3, 9 0. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 1. 0, 1 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 3, 1 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 7, 0. 2, 2 0. 0, 7 5. 0, 0. 5, 2 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 5. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 5. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 5 5 0. 0, 5. 0, 5 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 5 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 3), (' g 0', 9 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 2 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 1. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 4 5 8 A bs Err: 9 4 8 6 0 9 7 2. 4 0 1 K G E: 0. 3 6 4 N S _r el: - 0. 1 2 N S: - 0. 6 9 1 R M S E: 1 0 8 2 5 6 6 7 0. 8 7 1 N S _l o g: - 2. 7 4 4

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 d a y, 7: 5 9: 2 4. 3 4 6 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A495

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 0. 8 2 3), (' Ki', 8 0. 5 1 1), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 1. 8 6), (' g 0', 6 5. 0 9 5), (' g _ m a x', 3 2 9. 8 5 7), (' K _r u n', 1. 4 6), (' P _ m a x', 7 3. 5 5 3)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 1 1 A bs Err: 3 7 9 4 6 2 2. 8 1 K G E: 0. 3 3 1 N S _r el: 0. 4 5 7 N S: - 0. 5 1 1 R M S E: 4 7 0 8 7 6 6. 8 8 5 N S _l o g: 0. 4 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A496

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A497

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A498

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A499

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A500

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 1: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 4. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al r e p ort

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 0. 8 2 3, [ 0. 8 2 3, [ 0. 8 2 2, [ 0. 8 2 3, [ 0. 8 2 3, [ 0. 8 2 3, [ 0. 8 2 3, [ 0. 8 2 3, [ 0. 8 2 3, [ 0. 8 2 2,

8 2. 2 4 3, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 5 3 4, 8 0. 5 0 3, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 4 5 2, 8 2. 1 6 2, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 5 3 3, 8 1. 6 9 8, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 2 5 5, 8 2. 5 6, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 8 2 2, 8 1. 8 9 8, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 8 5 3, 8 1. 2 6 1, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 0 2 5, 8 0. 5 1 1, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 8 6, 8 1. 7 2 7, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 4 0 4, 8 2. 1 6 6, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 9 5 1,

6 5. 3 2 1, 3 6 6. 7 7 1, 1. 4 3 3, 6 0. 5 6 8, 3 0 7. 3 6 5, 1. 6 7 3, 6 1. 2 1 8, 2 9 4. 0 5 3, 0. 5 1 9, 6 0. 5 6 8, 3 0 7. 0 3 1, 1. 2 7 1, 6 0. 5 6 8, 3 0 7. 9 7 7, 1. 2 5 1, 6 1. 2 6 5, 3 0 7. 6 0 1, 2. 0 9 8, 6 1. 1 5, 3 0 7. 0 1 2, 3. 0 3 8, 6 5. 0 9 5, 3 2 9. 8 5 7, 1. 4 6, 5 9. 4 9 3, 3 0 8. 7 1 7, 1. 4 5 6, 6 0. 7, 3 0 4. 9 7 3, 1. 0 4 9,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

7 3. 7 5 2] : [ 8 6 8 5 7 8 5. 4 7 7, 7 3. 0 9 5] : [ 3 5 8 4 0 9 9. 7 6 9, 7 1. 1 0 4] : [ 2 9 8 1 8 4 4. 6 3 6, 7 3. 0 0 9] : [ 3 3 3 3 5 7 3. 9 3, 7 2. 8 1] : [ 3 2 7 9 6 3 8. 1 1 4, 7 3. 6 3 3] : [ 3 6 6 9 4 0 3. 6 4 4, 7 4. 1 9 5] : [ 3 6 7 9 2 3 1. 9 1 1, 7 3. 5 5 3] : [ 3 7 9 4 6 2 2. 8 1, 7 4. 1 8 4] : [ 3 3 3 9 4 6 8. 5 6 8, 7 2. 3 2 9] : [ 3 1 5 5 6 1 3. 2 8 1,

0. 4 8 8] 0. 4 5 3] 0. 3 5 1] 0. 4 4 2] 0. 4 4 1] 0. 4 5 3] 0. 4 5 5] 0. 4 7] 0. 4 4 9] 0. 4 3 2]

A501

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A502

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5 9. 5. 5. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M A N 1 6 1 0 4 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 8 0 3- 3 7) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 5. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A503

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 M A N161040

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

102900000

st art _ d at e

200501010000

e n d _ d at e

200912310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 5. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 1 0. 0, 0. 0 0 4, 1. 0 5, 9 0. 0, 4 5 0. 0, 0. 5, 3 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 2, 8. 0, 0. 0 0 3 2, 0. 8 4, 7 2. 0, 3 6 0. 0, 0. 4, 2 4. 3]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 9 5, 1 3. 0, 0. 0 1, 1. 3 5, 1 2 0. 0, 6 0 0. 0, 0. 7, 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 1 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 4), (' Kss', 1. 0 5), (' g 0', 9 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 4 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 0. 5), (' P _ m a x', 3 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 2 8 A bs Err: 4 9 7 8 7 2 0. 1 8 3 K G E: 0. 7 6 4 N S _r el: 0. 3 4 6 N S: 0. 5 3 8 R M S E: 6 8 5 8 0 2 0. 4 4 4 N S _l o g: 0. 3 4 9

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 0: 0 0: 2 5. 9 7 2 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A504

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 9 2 3), (' Ki', 1 3. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 5), (' Kss', 0. 9 6 5), (' g 0', 8 5. 1 3 9), (' g _ m a x', 5 6 0. 4 3 1), (' K _r u n', 0. 4 7 8), (' P _ m a x', 3 9. 1 9)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 A bs Err: 3 8 0 0 5 3 5. 8 2 4 K G E: 0. 7 8 8 N S _r el: 0. 4 6 5 N S: 0. 5 7 7 R M S E: 4 6 4 9 8 6 2. 5 9 4 N S _l o g: 0. 3 5 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A505

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A506

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A507

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A508

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A509

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 7 0 8, 1 2. 5 3 1, 0. 0 0 4, 1. 0 5 2, 8 9. 3 0 1, 5 3 0. 6 4 6, 0. 4 1 6, 3 8. 0 6 7] : [ 4 2 9 4 3 9 6. 3 9 6, [ 1. 9 5, 1 0. 8 6 9, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 8 4, 9 1. 0 9 1, 5 4 4. 7 6 4, 0. 4 6, 3 4. 3 0 6] : [ 3 7 4 7 1 8 4. 8 1 4, [ 1. 8 9 2, 1 1. 6 4 4, 0. 0 0 5, 1. 0 6 9, 8 4. 2 1 2, 4 6 0. 7 1 3, 0. 4, 3 8. 0 0 4] : [ 3 6 6 7 1 7 8. 9 9 2, [ 1. 7 4 5, 1 1. 9 5 2, 0. 0 0 4, 0. 9 6 6, 8 4. 7 1 5, 5 3 0. 2 4 2, 0. 4 7 8, 3 5. 4 6] : [ 4 1 0 7 9 3 3. 6 6 7, [ 1. 6 2 1, 1 1. 6 3 9, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 3 5, 8 1. 7 0 7, 5 4 4. 1 6 5, 0. 5 4 1, 3 7. 6 9] : [ 5 3 9 2 4 1 7. 1 1 7, [ 1. 9 2 3, 1 3. 0, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 9 6 5, 8 5. 1 3 9, 5 6 0. 4 3 1, 0. 4 7 8, 3 9. 1 9] : [ 3 8 0 0 5 3 5. 8 2 4, [ 1. 9 5, 1 3. 0, 0. 0 0 6, 1. 3 5, 7 9. 6 4 6, 4 1 0. 5 0 5, 0. 4 0 3, 3 5. 7 9 7] : [ 3 5 3 0 5 3 7. 2 7 8, [ 1. 5 9 8, 1 2. 9 6 5, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 9 2, 8 1. 1 9 8, 5 5 3. 2 7 8, 0. 6 0 1, 3 7. 5 4 9] : [ 5 1 4 8 7 4 7. 1 3, [ 1. 6 2 5, 1 0. 9 5 4, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 3 5, 8 0. 5 5 6, 5 5 1. 0 5 3, 0. 5 6 4, 3 7. 8 0 4] : [ 4 3 0 6 2 8 2. 5 4 9, [ 1. 9 4, 1 1. 6 6 7, 0. 0 0 5, 1. 3 5, 8 2. 6 0 3, 5 5 4. 0 3 7, 0. 5 1 8, 3 4. 9 9 8] : [ 3 7 6 5 3 6 3. 4 1 5, : [ 1. 8 9 2, 1 1. 6 4 4, 0. 0 0 5, 1. 3 5, 8 4. 2 1 2, 4 6 0. 5 6 4, 0. 4, 3 8. 0 0 4] : [ 3 6 5 5 7 0 7. 5 2 2, : [ 1. 6 4 6, 1 1. 8 4 4, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 9 7 6, 9 8. 9 7 8, 5 5 0. 1 0 2, 0. 5 2, 3 8. 4 8 4] : [ 4 6 6 2 9 8 8. 4 8 5,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 3 7 9] 0. 3 3 9] 0. 2 9 1] 0. 3 7 8] 0. 4 3 2] 0. 3 5 9] 0. 2 0 3] 0. 4 3] 0. 4 1 8] 0. 3 5] 0. 2 9 1] 0. 4 2 5]

A510

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6 9. 5. 6. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 M O T 1 4 4 2 7 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 3 2 3- 2 7) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A511

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09 M OT144270

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

33600000

st art _ d at e

200301010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 6. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A512

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 2. 2, 2 4. 8 2 9, 0. 0 0 5, 2. 8 0 1, 9. 0, 2 9 6. 0, 1. 5, 5 8. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 5 4, 1 7. 0, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 7, 5. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 1. 0, 3 5. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 9, 3 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 4. 0, 5 0. 0, 3 5 0. 0, 3. 0, 7 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 2. 2), (' Ki', 2 4. 8 2 9), (' K g', 0. 0 0 5), (' Kss', 2. 8 0 1), (' g 0', 9. 0), (' g _ m a x', 2 9 6. 0), (' K _r u n', 1. 5), (' P _ m a x', 5 8. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 2 3 8 A bs Err: 1 0 1 2 7 9 5 9. 1 4 1 K G E: 0. 6 4 N S _r el: 0. 4 0 8 N S: 0. 3 4 6 R M S E: 1 2 7 1 5 3 8 6. 0 5 1 N S _l o g: - 1. 0 2 2

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 8: 4 3: 0 6. 6 8 0 0 0 0 9. 5. 6. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 5 5 8), (' Ki', 2 0. 2 8 2), (' K g', 0. 0 0 6), (' Kss', 2. 8 4 4), (' g 0', 2 9. 8 7 6), (' g _ m a x', 2 6 9. 2 7 6), (' K _r u n', 2. 7 8), (' P _ m a x', 4 5. 3 1 7)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 6 A bs Err: 2 5 6 5 2 5 6. 0 9 2 K G E: 0. 7 3 3 N S _r el: 0. 5 5 1 N S: 0. 4 5 R M S E: 2 9 2 8 2 0 0. 2 4 3 N S _l o g: 0. 4 2 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A513

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A514

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A515

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A516

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 6. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 5 4, 2 0. 2 8, 0. 0 0 6, 2. 7 5 8, 3 0. 1 7 3, 2 7 0. 7 1 7, 3. 0, 4 5. 4 1 4] : 1 : [ 1. 5 4, 2 0. 2 8, 0. 0 0 6, 1. 7, 2 9. 3 3 1, 2 7 2. 3 1 2, 3. 0, 4 5. 4 1 4] : 2 : [ 1. 5 4, 2 0. 3 0 6, 0. 0 0 6, 2. 7 5 8, 3 0. 1 7 3, 2 6 9. 0 9 7, 3. 0, 4 5. 7 7] 3 : [ 1. 5 4, 2 0. 2 8 2, 0. 0 0 6, 2. 8 4 4, 2 9. 8 7 6, 2 6 9. 2 7 6, 2. 7 8, 4 5. 3 1 7] : 4 : [ 1. 5 4, 2 0. 6 9 6, 0. 0 0 6, 2. 9 2 9, 2 9. 7 6 8, 2 6 8. 5 3 6, 3. 0, 4 5. 2 8 1] : 5 : [ 1. 5 4, 2 1. 4 5 8, 0. 0 0 6, 1. 7, 2 9. 3 2 8, 3 1 7. 1 9 3, 3. 0, 4 4. 5 4 1] : 6 : [ 1. 5 5 8, 2 0. 2 8 2, 0. 0 0 6, 2. 8 4 4, 2 9. 8 7 6, 2 6 9. 2 7 6, 2. 7 8, 4 5. 3 1 7] : 7 : [ 1. 5 4, 1 9. 8 7 2, 0. 0 0 7, 2. 7 5 8, 3 0. 1 7 3, 2 9 3. 7 2 6, 2. 8 0 2, 4 5. 1 1 8] : 8 : [ 1. 6 4 4, 2 0. 4 3 5, 0. 0 0 6, 2. 8 4 5, 3 0. 1 4 2, 2 6 8. 1 6 9, 3. 0, 4 4. 9 2] : 9 : [ 1. 5 4, 2 1. 3 6 6, 0. 0 0 6, 1. 7, 2 9. 6 2 8, 3 0 7. 0 8, 3. 0, 4 4. 9 9 3] :

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

[ 3 5 2 0 7 9 0. 7 5 6, [ 3 6 1 0 3 5 4. 2 9 6, : [ 3 4 4 2 1 9 3. 9 5, [ 3 0 0 1 1 7 8. 2 6 3, [ 2 9 3 7 7 2 3. 5 0 4, [ 5 8 2 7 1 0 0. 1 3 2, [ 2 5 6 5 2 5 6. 0 9 2, [ 4 9 3 2 4 2 7. 4 5 4, [ 1 7 8 1 4 4 3. 7 9 3, [ 5 1 9 7 7 8 8. 4 7 7,

0. 4 2 2] 0. 4 4 4] 0. 4 2] 0. 4 1 7] 0. 4 1 4] 0. 4 7 3] 0. 4 0 5] 0. 4 4 5] 0. 3 2 6] 0. 4 7 2]

A517

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A518

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7 9. 5. 7. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 V E L 1 4 5 1 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 9 0 0- 0 3) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 7. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A519

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 9 V EL 1 4 5 1 0 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

96800000

st art _ d at e

200501010000

e n d _ d at e

200912310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 7. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 3 2, 1 5. 0, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 0 4 5, 8 9. 9 5 9, 2 0 0. 0, 6. 7 4 6, 2 9 9. 4 5 9]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 0 5, 1 0. 0, 0. 0 0 1 6, 0. 8 3 2, 7 1. 0, 1 2 0. 0, 5. 4, 2 3 9. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 5 8, 1 2 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 3 5 0. 0, 8. 0, 4 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 3 2), (' Ki', 1 5. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 1. 0 4 5), (' g 0', 8 9. 9 5 9), (' g _ m a x', 2 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 6. 7 4 6), (' P _ m a x', 2 9 9. 4 5 9)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 1 A bs Err: 8 4 7 8 2 8. 7 1 4 K G E: 0. 5 7 3 N S _r el: 0. 5 6 2 N S: 0. 4 7 2 R M S E: 1 1 6 2 7 1 2. 6 2 8 N S _l o g: 0. 5 4 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A520

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 7: 2 1: 2 1. 7 5 5 0 0 0 9. 5. 7. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 5 8), (' Ki', 1 8. 5 6 8), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 2. 0 5 3), (' g 0', 1 3 3. 9 0 5), (' g _ m a x', 2 2 8. 7 4 8), (' K _r u n', 7. 9), (' P _ m a x', 3 0 4. 1 0 5)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 0 5 A bs Err: 8 4 6 2 2 5. 7 6 2 K G E: 0. 6 0 1 N S _r el: 0. 6 2 6 N S: 0. 4 9 3 R M S E: 1 0 3 4 6 1 0. 2 2 8 N S _l o g: 0. 5 6 2

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A521

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A522

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A523

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A524

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A525

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: : : : : : : : : :

[ 1. 5 8, 2 0. 0 8 7, 0. 0 0 3, 0. 8 7, 1 3 3. 8 3 2, 2 2 8. 9 6 8, 6. 3 0 3, 3 0 2. 7 0 4] : [ 7 2 3 1 2 2. 2 1, [ 1. 3 2 9, 1 9. 1 8 2, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 0 3 6, 9 8. 1 2 8, 2 3 0. 9 4 3, 7. 7 3 1, 3 1 1. 6 4 2] : [ 1 8 3 4 6 6 6. 0 1 5, [ 1. 3 2 2, 1 4. 9 3 6, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 8 3 2, 9 0. 0 2 3, 2 0 2. 7 6 1, 8. 0, 2 9 9. 8 1 3] : [ 2 8 8 6 6 3 3. 1 8 7, [ 1. 5 8, 1 8. 5 6 8, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 0 5 3, 1 3 3. 9 0 5, 2 2 8. 7 4 8, 7. 9, 3 0 4. 1 0 5] : [ 8 4 6 2 2 5. 7 6 2, [ 1. 5, 5 5. 0 4 1, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 8 3 2, 9 6. 1 3, 2 0 2. 2 5 3, 7. 7 4 1, 3 0 3. 3 9] : [ 6 2 0 5 5 8. 5 4 4, [ 1. 5 8, 2 0. 0 3 1, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 5 4 9, 1 3 3. 2 6 9, 2 2 8. 9 1 3, 6. 4 2, 3 0 3. 0 6 4] : [ 7 2 5 6 8 0. 3 6 7, [ 1. 5 8, 1 8. 9 7 5, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 0 1 3, 1 3 4. 0 5 5, 2 2 8. 8 7 6, 6. 8 5 5, 3 0 4. 1 9 1] : [ 7 6 2 2 3 9. 4 9 2, [ 1. 5 5 8, 1 7. 1 5 3, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 1 7 7, 9 6. 7 2 3, 2 2 2. 1 0 5, 7. 8 2 8, 2 9 8. 1 1 3] : [ 1 2 7 8 4 3 6. 1 8 8, [ 1. 4 5, 1 8. 8 7 7, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 5 3 6, 1 3 4. 0 5 1, 2 2 9. 9 1 4, 6. 6 9 8, 3 0 5. 2 6 8] : [ 1 2 3 2 7 3 3. 1 1, [ 1. 3 2 4, 1 7. 3 4 5, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 9 7 8, 9 3. 1 7 3, 2 1 5. 8 9, 8. 0, 3 0 8. 1 5 4] : [ 3 7 9 9 5 4 7. 6 5 4, : [ 1. 5 7, 4 1. 2 6 2, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 2 1 7, 1 1 5. 3 1 7, 2 2 0. 3 0 8, 7. 0 7 3, 3 0 3. 3 7 5] : [ 6 2 1 2 7 9. 2 5 2, : [ 1. 3 2 4, 1 7. 3 2 7, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 0 7, 9 3. 1 7 3, 2 1 5. 4 8 4, 8. 0, 3 0 8. 1 5 4] : [ 3 8 5 0 8 0 3. 5 5 2, : [ 1. 5 6 7, 1 8. 3 4 4, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 8 3 2, 1 1 8. 8 2, 2 2 4. 7 9 1, 7. 4 7 5, 2 9 9. 8 9 7] : [ 8 2 1 6 4 4. 4 4 6, : [ 1. 3 2 1, 1 8. 4 4 5, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 8 3 2, 9 2. 1 4 5, 2 1 7. 1 4 5, 8. 0, 2 9 8. 4 7 6] : [ 3 1 4 6 4 0 7. 5 8 1,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 5 4 5] 0. 5 7 8] 0. 5 8 9] 0. 5 6 2] 0. 4 5 1] 0. 5 4 7] 0. 5 5 4] 0. 5 6 5] 0. 5 6 5] 0. 5 9 8] 0. 5 1] 0. 5 9 8] 0. 5 5 9] 0. 5 9 5]

A526

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8 9. 5. 8. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 1 9 0 0- 2 7) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A527

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 0 9 WI N 1 4 1 3 1 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

80015463

st art _ d at e

200801010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 8. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A528

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 2. 0, 2 0. 0, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 3. 5, 1 2 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 6, 1 6. 0, 0. 0 0 1 6, 0. 8, 1 2 0. 0, 1 8 0. 0, 2. 5, 9 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 5, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 4 0 0. 0, 5. 0, 3 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 2. 0), (' Ki', 2 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 1. 0), (' g 0', 1 5 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 2 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 3. 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 2 8 A bs Err: 1 9 4 0 6 1 0. 4 0 2 K G E: 0. 5 6 5 N S _r el: - 2 1. 6 1 5 N S: 0. 1 7 1 R M S E: 2 4 0 3 1 2 3. 4 5 2 N S _l o g: 0. 6 0 1

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 6: 3 0: 2 7. 1 0 7 0 0 0 9. 5. 8. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 9 5 3), (' Ki', 1 7. 5 4 6), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 0. 8), (' g 0', 1 6 3. 6 5), (' g _ m a x', 2 5 2. 3 4 2), (' K _r u n', 3. 4 4 3), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 6. 4 8 4)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 3 5 A bs Err: 1 8 6 7 3 2 9. 5 0 8 K G E: 0. 6 1 2 N S _r el: - 2 4. 2 1 5 N S: 0. 2 5 R M S E: 2 3 8 2 2 8 0. 2 1 9 N S _l o g: 0. 6 0 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A529

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A530

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A531

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A532

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A533

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4

: : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 9 8, [ 1. 9 9 6, [ 1. 9 8 5, [ 1. 9 5 3, [ 1. 9 7 9,

Fi n al r e p ort

1 7. 3 9 2, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 3 6 9, 1 6 7. 0 7 3, 2 5 5. 4 8 9, 2. 7 8 2, 1 2 6. 4 1 2] : [ 1 9 0 8 7 8 5. 8 7, 1 8. 2 1 7, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 0 5 8, 1 4 8. 4 6, 2 4 9. 7 6 7, 3. 1 0 8, 1 2 2. 2 0 2] : [ 1 9 6 1 3 1 6. 6 3 4, 1 6. 9, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 1 7 9, 1 5 8. 9 2 6, 2 4 9. 6 0 1, 2. 8 7 6, 1 2 7. 6 8 4] : [ 1 9 7 0 8 0 5. 7 6 1, 1 7. 5 4 6, 0. 0 0 2, 0. 8, 1 6 3. 6 5, 2 5 2. 3 4 2, 3. 4 4 3, 1 2 6. 4 8 4] : [ 1 8 6 7 3 2 9. 5 0 8, 1 7. 3 4 4, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 5 7 4, 1 6 3. 2 8 8, 2 5 2. 6 7 4, 2. 7 4 1, 1 2 4. 2 9 2] : [ 1 9 4 6 0 0 6. 9 7 2,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 0 6] 0. 6 0 6] 0. 6 0 7] 0. 6 0 3] 0. 6 0 6]

A534

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 9 9. 5. 9. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 0 9 Z W A 1 4 8 1 2 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 5 0 0- 2 3) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 9. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A535

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V09Z W A148120

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

96200000

st art _ d at e

200201010000

e n d _ d at e

200712310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 9. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 7, 2 5. 0, 0. 0 1, 1. 0 5, 1 5 0. 0, 5 0 0. 0, 0. 5, 2 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 0, 1 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 9, 0. 6 3, 5 0. 0, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 3, 1 2. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 5, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 1, 3. 0, 2 3 0. 0, 6 0 0. 0, 2. 0, 3 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 7), (' Ki', 2 5. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 0 5), (' g 0', 1 5 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 5 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 0. 5), (' P _ m a x', 2 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 1 4 A bs Err: 1 3 8 6 9 4 4 8. 7 9 7 K G E: 0. 7 1 N S _r el: 0. 4 0 6 N S: 0. 5 0 7 R M S E: 1 5 0 4 0 6 6 5. 1 6 5 N S _l o g: 0. 3 9 4

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 0: 0 8: 3 7. 6 7 8 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A536

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 9. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 8 5), (' Ki', 3 0. 9 3 1), (' K g', 0. 0 0 9), (' Kss', 0. 6 3), (' g 0', 1 5 2. 7 7 2), (' g _ m a x', 4 8 9. 9 5 5), (' K _r u n', 1. 0 9), (' P _ m a x', 6 8. 6 5 6)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 3 6 A bs Err: 3 6 5 9 9 3 1. 3 5 4 K G E: 0. 7 6 8 N S _r el: 0. 5 5 4 N S: 0. 5 5 6 R M S E: 4 4 3 8 3 6 7. 7 3 3 N S _l o g: 0. 3 9 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A537

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A538

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 9. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A539

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 9. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A540

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A541

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 9. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 9 2 4, 1 : [ 1. 8 5, 2 : [ 1. 8 2 1, 3 : [ 1. 7 9 6,

Fi n al r e p ort

3 1. 5 5 8, 3 0. 9 3 1, 3 1. 4 3 1, 2 9. 1 3,

0. 0 0 9, 0. 0 0 9, 0. 0 0 9, 0. 0 0 9,

0. 6 5 5, 0. 6 3, 1. 2 1 2, 1. 1 7 2,

1 4 6. 8 7 4, 1 5 2. 7 7 2, 1 4 6. 6 8 6, 1 5 3. 4 5 5,

4 6 9. 1 8 6, 4 8 9. 9 5 5, 4 9 3. 0 9, 5 0 0. 2 8 7,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 8 5 5, 1. 0 9, 0. 8 2 3, 0. 8 1 3,

6 9. 4 5 4] 6 8. 6 5 6] 7 4. 4 0 3] 1 3. 6 3 1]

: : : :

[ 2 6 2 6 1 7 8. 2 1 4, [ 3 6 5 9 9 3 1. 3 5 4, [ 7 1 5 9 6 5 0. 2 8 7, [ 7 8 9 1 4 4 9. 1 6 6,

0. 3 5 4] 0. 3 9 6] 0. 3 9 8] 0. 4 0 8]

A542

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 2 0

Fi n al v ersi o n

N et e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 543

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1 9. 5. 1. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9 " ( N et e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9 ( N et e)

Fi g ur e 2 A n n u al c u m ul at e d dis c h ar g e (r e d) a n d s c al e d pr e ci pit ati o n ( bl u e) a c c or di n g t o r u n off r ati o (t ot al Q/t ot al P) a n d c u m ul ati v e p ot e nti al e v a p otr a ns pir ati o n ( gr e e n) o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9 ( N et e)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A544

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V10 G NE076999

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

243500000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 7

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 3), (' Ki', 1 9. 2 8), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 2. 3 2), (' g 0', 1 5 9. 7 5), (' g _ m a x', 4 7 0. 2), (' K _r u n', 1. 3 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 8. 7)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 6 %

- 0. 8 %

- 3. 1 %

0. 2 5 5

- 0. 5 9

0. 3 6

N S _l o g

0. 4 4 9

0. 1 4 9

0. 3 2 9

N S _r el

0. 5 9 8

0. 2 1

0. 6 2

K GE

0. 6 5 4

0. 2 8 6

0. 5 7 1

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 7 - 2 0 0 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 8. 0 %

6. 3 %

- 1 3. 6 %

0. 3 2

- 0. 3 6 7

0. 3 5 4

N S _l o g

0. 5 4 1

0. 4 5

0. 4 2 2

N S _r el

0. 5 4 4

0. 5 8 7

0. 5 0 3

K GE

0. 6 2 6

0. 4 0 3

0. 6 4 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A545

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9, st ati o n 7 6 1 0 1 0 2 Gr ot e N et e/ G e el Z a m m el( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9, st ati o n 7 6 1 0 1 0 2 Gr ot e N et e/ G e el Z a m m el ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A546

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9, st ati o n 7 6 1 0 1 0 2 Gr ot e N et e/ G e el Z a m m el ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9, st ati o n 7 6 1 0 1 0 2 Gr ot e N et e/ G e el Z a m m el ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A547

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9, st ati o n 7 6 1 0 1 0 2 Gr ot e N et e/ G e el Z a m m el

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9, st ati o n 7 6 1 0 1 0 2 Gr ot e N et e/ G e el Z a m m el

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A548

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4

I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( N et e)

9. 5. 1. 5

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V10 M OP062140

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A549

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

77319091

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 8

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 2. 3 2), (' Ki', 1 2 7. 9 8), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 2. 8 7), (' g 0', 6 0. 3 7), (' g _ m a x', 4 3 4. 1 8), (' K _r u n', 3. 9 6), (' P _ m a x', 1 7 1. 1 8)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 3. 3 %

- 3 3. 0 %

4. 1 %

0. 0 3 7

- 0. 2 9 6

0. 0 6 4

N S _l o g

0. 4 5

0. 3 5 8

0. 1 4 7

N S _r el

0. 0 4 7

- 0. 1 4 4

0. 0 7 9

K GE

0. 5 6 5

0. 2 4 2

0. 5

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1 1. 2 %

9. 2 %

7. 4 %

- 0. 4 1 8

- 4. 1 3 5

0. 1 2

N S _l o g

0. 5 8 3

0. 4 0 5

0. 4 5 4

N S _r el

- 0. 3 5 8

0. 0 4 7

0. 2 9 3

K GE

0. 3 9 8

- 0. 7 2

0. 5 3 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A550

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 6

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0, st ati o n 6 2 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, P ull e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0, st ati o n 6 2 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, P ull e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A551

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0, st ati o n 6 2 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, P ull e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0, st ati o n 6 2 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, P ull e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A552

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0, st ati o n 6 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, P ull e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0, st ati o n 6 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, P ull e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A553

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0, st ati o n 6 2 1 0 1 0 2 - M ol e n b e e k, P ull e

9. 5. 2 9. 5. 2. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0" ( N et e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( N et e) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A554

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V10K NE052000

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

584669408

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 7

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 4 5), (' Ki', 1 1 3. 7 1), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 8 6), (' g 0', 8 7. 2 2), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 4. 7 7), (' K _r u n', 2. 0), (' P _ m a x', 4 0. 5 7)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 3 %

4. 5 %

- 3. 7 %

0. 5 6 8

- 0. 0 6 6

0. 4 9 6

N S _l o g

0. 7 1 5

0. 5 8

0. 3 9 4

N S _r el

0. 7 7

0. 5 0 2

0. 4 9 9

K GE

0. 7 7 1

0. 4 9 4

0. 5 5 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A555

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 5. 7 %

- 1 5. 4 %

- 5. 9 %

0. 6 9 7

0. 0 3 6

0. 6 6 8

N S _l o g

0. 7 1 5

0. 5 3 5

0. 7 0 4

N S _r el

0. 7 8

0. 6 7 7

0. 8 0 5

K GE

0. 8 1 2

0. 4 7 2

0. 6 9 2

9. 5. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0, st ati o n 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A556

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0, st ati o n 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0, st ati o n 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A557

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0, st ati o n 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0, st ati o n 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A558

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0, st ati o n 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0, st ati o n 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A559

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 0: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0, st ati o n 5 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Kl ei n e N et e; Gr o b b e n d o n k

9. 5. 3 9. 5. 3. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0" ( N et e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( N et e) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A560

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V10 M OP062140

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

77319091

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 8

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 2

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 3. 3 %

- 3 3. 0 %

4. 1 %

0. 0 3 7

- 0. 2 9 6

0. 0 6 4

N S _l o g

0. 4 5

0. 3 5 8

0. 1 4 7

N S _r el

0. 0 4 7

- 0. 1 4 4

0. 0 7 9

K GE

0. 5 6 5

0. 2 4 2

0. 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A561

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1 1. 2 %

9. 2 %

7. 4 %

- 0. 4 1 8

- 4. 1 3 5

0. 1 2

N S _l o g

0. 5 8 3

0. 4 0 5

0. 4 5 4

N S _r el

- 0. 3 5 8

0. 0 4 7

0. 2 9 3

K GE

0. 3 9 8

- 0. 7 2

0. 5 3 6

9. 5. 3. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A562

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0, st ati o n 6 2 1 0 1 0 2 M ol e n b e e k, P ull e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A563

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A564

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A565

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4 9. 5. 4. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0 " ( N et e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0 ( N et e)

9. 5. 4. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e Fi n al r e p ort

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1 W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A566

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

65400000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 5

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 1 9 9 9

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 2. 8 1), (' Ki', 1 4 0. 6 6), (' K g', 0. 0 2), (' Kss', 9. 9 4), (' g 0', 1 6 9. 1 8), (' g _ m a x', 5 6 5. 8 4), (' K _r u n', 0. 9 8), (' P _ m a x', 3 1 1. 2 3)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 8 - 2 0 0 6)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 5 %

- 2 5. 1 %

1 9. 2 %

0. 4 5 8

0. 0 4 1

0. 6 1 9

N S _l o g

0. 4 4 5

0. 0 2 5

0. 5 0 7

N S _r el

- 3. 6 8 9

- 6. 1 3

0. 0 1 5

K GE

0. 7 1 8

0. 4 1 4

0. 7 6 3

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 5 - 1 9 9 9)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

6. 3 %

- 4 2. 5 %

4 1. 3 %

0. 3 4 3

0. 1 3 4

0. 3 9 2

N S _l o g

0. 3 7 7

- 0. 1 8 8

0. 3 1 5

N S _r el

- 4. 7 1 3

- 6. 2 5 5

- 0. 6 1 5

K GE

0. 6 1 3

0. 4 6 5

0. 5 5 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A567

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0, st ati o n 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 Wi e k e v orst( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0, st ati o n 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 Wi e k e v orst ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A568

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0, st ati o n 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 Wi e k e v orst ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0, st ati o n 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 Wi e k e v orst ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A569

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0, st ati o n 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Wi e k e v orst

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0, st ati o n 8 2 1 0 1 0 2 - Wi e k e v orst

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A570

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 2 1

Fi n al v ersi o n

N et e A ut o c ali br ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 571

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1 9. 5. 1. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 1 0 G N E 0 7 6 9 9 9 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 2 1 0- 3 1) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A572

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V10 G NE076999

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

243500000

st art _ d at e

200801010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 3, 2 0. 0, 0. 0 0 2 5, 1. 0 5, 1 6 0. 0, 4 7 0. 0, 3. 9, 1 3 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 0 1, 1. 0, 1 e- 0 5, 0. 1, 1. 0, 3. 0, 0. 1, 1. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1 5. 0, 5 0 0. 0, 1 0. 0, 1 0 0. 0, 1 0 0 0. 0, 1 0 0 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 1 0 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 3), (' Ki', 2 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2 5), (' Kss', 1. 0 5), (' g 0', 1 6 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 4 7 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 3. 9), (' P _ m a x', 1 3 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:     

R el Err: - 0. 0 8 2 A bs Err: 2 9 1 5 3 5 3 6. 0 6 9 K G E: 0. 6 6 8 N S _r el: 0. 7 N S: 0. 4 6 2

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A573

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

 

R M S E: 3 4 7 0 6 5 7 5. 9 4 4 N S _l o g: 0. 4 8 5

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 d a y, 5: 2 3: 3 3. 4 6 8 0 0 0 9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 3), (' Ki', 1 9. 2 8 2), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 2. 3 2 5), (' g 0', 1 5 9. 7 5), (' g _ m a x', 4 7 0. 2 6 5), (' K _r u n', 1. 3 5 7), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 8. 7 8 2)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 0 6 A bs Err: 1 0 4 0 9 3 5 7. 9 6 4 K G E: 0. 6 5 4 N S _r el: 0. 5 9 8 N S: 0. 2 5 5 R M S E: 1 3 3 9 0 5 0 1. 5 1 1 N S _l o g: 0. 4 4 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A574

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A575

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A576

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A577

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A578

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 2 9 9, 2 0. 1 6 3, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 3 6 5, 1 5 9. 9 2 5, 4 7 0. 0 8 8, 4. 5 5 5, 1 2 8. 6 8 7] : [ 1 4 2 0 1 1 1 0. 3 2 1, 0. 5 0 7] 1 : [ 1. 2 9 6, 2 0. 1 4 6, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 5 8 6, 1 5 9. 0 4 6, 4 7 0. 7 1 9, 2. 6 8 4, 1 2 9. 5 0 7] : [ 1 3 4 3 3 3 5 6. 2 2 1, 0. 5 0 4] 2 : [ 1. 3, 1 9. 2 8 2, 0. 0 0 3, 2. 3 2 5, 1 5 9. 7 5, 4 7 0. 2 6 5, 1. 3 5 7, 1 2 8. 7 8 2] : [ 1 0 4 0 9 3 5 7. 9 6 4, 0. 4 4 9]

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A579

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2 9. 5. 2. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 1 0 K N E 0 5 2 0 0 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 3 0 0- 3 9) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 2. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A580

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V10K NE052000

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

584669408

st art _ d at e

200801010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 4 8, 9 5. 1, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 0 2, 8 1. 2 7, 3 3 4. 2 8 8, 0. 7 8, 2 0. 1]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 1 8, 7 6. 0 8, 0. 0 0 7 2, 1. 6 2, 6 4. 9, 2 6 7. 3, 0. 6, 1 6. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 7, 1 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 1 2 0. 0, 4 0 0. 0, 2. 0, 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 4 8), (' Ki', 9 5. 1), (' K g', 0. 0 0 9), (' Kss', 2. 0 2), (' g 0', 8 1. 2 7), (' g _ m a x', 3 3 4. 2 8 8), (' K _r u n', 0. 7 8), (' P _ m a x', 2 0. 1)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 0 8 A bs Err: 2 2 2 0 9 8 9 9. 3 4 8 K G E: 0. 7 7 5 N S _r el: 0. 7 3 4 N S: 0. 5 7 8 R M S E: 2 5 7 8 0 9 9 1. 9 1 1 N S _l o g: 0. 6 8 7

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 9 d a ys, 7: 2 4: 5 0. 3 5 7 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A581

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 4 4 5), (' Ki', 1 1 3. 7 1 2), (' K g', 0. 0 0 9), (' Kss', 2. 8 5 6), (' g 0', 8 7. 2 2), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 4. 7 7 1), (' K _r u n', 2. 0), (' P _ m a x', 4 0. 5 7 7)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 0 3 A bs Err: 2 0 0 1 3 9 8 7. 3 3 5 K G E: 0. 7 7 1 N S _r el: 0. 7 7 N S: 0. 5 6 8 R M S E: 2 3 5 2 5 5 4 3. 1 8 5 N S _l o g: 0. 7 1 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A582

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A583

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A584

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A585

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A586

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: : : : : : : : : :

[ 1. 4 2, 1 2 4. 9 9 4, 0. 0 0 8, 3. 0, 7 6. 1 9 9, 3 3 2. 6 1 3, 1. 5 2 9, 3 6. 2 5 5] : [ 1 9 7 7 2 3 1 9. 2 2 4, [ 1. 4 4 7, 1 1 0. 8 1 8, 0. 0 1, 2. 7 8 4, 8 6. 7 2 4, 3 0 4. 6 9 9, 1. 9 1 7, 4 3. 1 2 1] : [ 2 3 3 6 1 1 9 9. 4 6 2, [ 1. 4 3 2, 1 1 1. 6 3 1, 0. 0 1, 1. 9 9 5, 8 6. 6 5 8, 3 0 2. 6 2 4, 2. 0, 4 2. 8 1 6] : [ 2 8 1 9 8 0 9 0. 2 1 1, [ 1. 4 3, 1 0 7. 9 5 8, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 0 0 6, 8 5. 3 9 2, 3 0 2. 5 7 7, 1. 9 6 4, 4 0. 2 4 2] : [ 2 0 4 6 5 8 0 2. 9 9 5, [ 1. 4 3 7, 1 1 2. 3 8 4, 0. 0 0 8, 2. 8 6 3, 8 3. 9 0 4, 3 3 1. 3 7 1, 2. 0, 3 6. 9 7 9] : [ 1 9 8 4 6 6 1 6. 9 2 8, [ 1. 4 3 9, 1 1 2. 3 0 6, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 8 6 5, 8 5. 6 6 6, 3 0 5. 0 4 8, 2. 0, 4 2. 3 3 5] : [ 2 1 8 2 2 7 9 7. 9 4 3, [ 1. 4 6, 1 1 0. 8 6 3, 0. 0 1, 2. 8 0 3, 8 7. 1 8, 3 0 4. 9 6 7, 2. 0, 4 3. 5 6 8] : [ 2 3 8 0 5 1 2 5. 8 4 1, [ 1. 4 4 1, 1 1 2. 0 8 5, 0. 0 1, 2. 0 7 7, 8 6. 8 0 5, 3 0 4. 7 6 5, 2. 0, 4 3. 5 9 3] : [ 2 7 1 5 1 8 1 9. 3 9 9, [ 1. 4 4 6, 1 1 2. 2 9 8, 0. 0 1, 2. 9 0 7, 8 6. 2 6 9, 3 0 1. 3 3, 1. 9 7 3, 4 1. 5 4 3] : [ 2 4 0 5 9 8 1 6. 7 0 6, [ 1. 4 4 5, 1 1 2. 1 4 2, 0. 0 1, 2. 5 5 4, 8 8. 2 1 2, 3 0 3. 5 0 6, 1. 9 9 7, 4 2. 9 3 5] : [ 2 6 4 7 0 7 7 6. 5 5 9, : [ 1. 4 4 5, 1 1 0. 9 0 9, 0. 0 1, 1. 6 2, 8 6. 7 2 5, 3 0 3. 7 2 5, 1. 9 5, 4 2. 9 3 4] : [ 2 6 4 3 7 1 6 3. 6 7, : [ 1. 4 4, 1 1 0. 7 8 3, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 4 1 9, 8 6. 6 7 2, 3 0 3. 9 6 8, 1. 9 6 3, 4 2. 5 7 6] : [ 2 0 9 8 4 5 9 1. 7 8 6, : [ 1. 4 4 6, 1 1 2. 4 3, 0. 0 1, 2. 9 2 8, 8 6. 2 0 9, 3 0 4. 3 6 8, 1. 9 8 1, 4 2. 6 9 8] : [ 2 5 3 3 8 2 2 8. 9 5 5, : [ 1. 4 4 8, 1 1 1. 1 3 8, 0. 0 1, 2. 0 0 8, 8 6. 8 0 8, 3 0 4. 9 1 1, 2. 0, 4 3. 5 9 4] : [ 2 5 8 1 3 7 8 9. 5 8 7, : [ 1. 4 3 1, 1 1 2. 2 7 3, 0. 0 1, 2. 8 4 1, 8 6. 3 3 2, 3 0 3. 0 4, 2. 0, 4 2. 2 3 1] : [ 2 8 1 1 0 9 7 0. 5 8 6, : [ 1. 4 4 5, 1 1 3. 7 1 2, 0. 0 0 9, 2. 8 5 6, 8 7. 2 2, 3 0 4. 7 7 1, 2. 0, 4 0. 5 7 7] : [ 2 0 0 1 3 9 8 7. 3 3 5,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 7 0 5] 0. 7 1 8] 0. 7 1 9] 0. 7 1 6] 0. 7 1] 0. 7 1 7] 0. 7 1 8] 0. 7 1 9] 0. 7 1 8] 0. 7 1 9] 0. 7 1 9] 0. 7 1 7] 0. 7 1 9] 0. 7 1 9] 0. 7 1 9] 0. 7 1 5]

A587

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3 9. 5. 3. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 1 0 M O P 0 6 2 1 4 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 4 0 8- 0 8) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A588

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V10 M OP062140

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

77319091

st art _ d at e

200501010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 3. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A589

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 1, 4 0. 0, 0. 0 0 8, 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 1. 7, 5 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 5, 2 0. 0, 0. 0 0 4, 0. 5, 2 5. 0, 5 0. 0, 0. 8 5, 2 5. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 3. 0, 1 6 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 4 5 0. 0, 5. 0, 3 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 1), (' Ki', 4 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 8), (' Kss', 1. 0), (' g 0', 5 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 1 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 1. 7), (' P _ m a x', 5 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 7 9 9 A bs Err: 6 0 4 1 8 9 8 4. 0 3 2 K G E: - 0. 0 3 3 N S _r el: - 4. 8 5 5 N S: - 1. 7 7 6 R M S E: 7 1 2 7 9 0 5 9. 1 4 3 N S _l o g: - 0. 5 0 8

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 4: 4 6: 5 1. 1 0 2 0 0 0 9. 5. 3. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 2. 3 2 2), (' Ki', 1 2 7. 9 7 7), (' K g', 0. 0 0 4), (' Kss', 2. 8 6 6), (' g 0', 6 0. 3 6 8), (' g _ m a x', 4 3 4. 1 8 2), (' K _r u n', 3. 9 5 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 7 1. 1 7 7)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 3 3 A bs Err: 4 4 2 6 0 4 2. 1 1 9 K G E: 0. 5 6 5 N S _r el: 0. 0 4 7 N S: 0. 0 3 7 R M S E: 5 5 9 9 4 6 7. 7 0 9 N S _l o g: 0. 4 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A590

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A591

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A592

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A593

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A594

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1 1: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 3. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 2. 2 2, 1 2 7. 7 8, 0. 0 0 4, 1. 9 3 8, 6 3. 6 5 4, 4 0 5. 4 1 3, 4. 9 3 1, 1 6 5. 3 4 1] : [ 4 9 6 2 3 1 1. 5 9 6, [ 2. 2 9 2, 1 2 7. 7 9 8, 0. 0 0 4, 2. 6 6 8, 5 9. 6 6 7, 4 3 8. 2 3, 3. 0 3 3, 1 7 2. 2 6 7] : [ 4 7 4 5 6 8 1. 1 5 9, [ 2. 2 2 7, 1 2 7. 9 8 3, 0. 0 0 4, 0. 7 5 2, 6 4. 3 5 8, 4 0 8. 0 8 4, 5. 0, 1 6 5. 9 8 6] : [ 4 9 2 7 9 7 4. 7 8 4, [ 2. 2 9 3, 1 2 7. 7 9 9, 0. 0 0 4, 2. 2 2 5, 6 0. 1 4 5, 4 1 0. 4 5 7, 4. 2 0 9, 1 6 6. 5 8 1] : [ 4 4 2 0 6 8 8. 5 9 7, [ 2. 3 2 2, 1 2 7. 9 7 7, 0. 0 0 4, 2. 8 6 6, 6 0. 3 6 8, 4 3 4. 1 8 2, 3. 9 5 5, 1 7 1. 1 7 7] : [ 4 4 2 6 0 4 2. 1 1 9, [ 2. 2 8, 1 2 9. 3 2 1, 0. 0 0 4, 2. 6 3 7, 6 0. 6 3 6, 4 1 8. 1 5 6, 3. 1 2 5, 1 7 1. 8 7 8] : [ 4 4 8 4 0 8 5. 9 4 1, [ 2. 2 9 3, 1 2 9. 4 4 8, 0. 0 0 4, 0. 5, 6 3. 5 1 9, 4 1 9. 7 6 1, 1. 9 7 2, 1 7 0. 0 3 8] : [ 4 3 9 7 0 3 1. 7 7 6, [ 2. 2 9 2, 1 2 8. 1 7 8, 0. 0 0 4, 3. 0, 5 9. 8 9 7, 4 3 2. 4 8 2, 4. 4 3 1, 1 7 1. 1 4 9] : [ 4 7 0 3 3 4 8. 2 1 4, [ 2. 2 7 5, 1 2 7. 9 7 7, 0. 0 0 4, 1. 6 2 2, 6 3. 6 3 1, 4 1 5. 6 6 1, 4. 9 1 6, 1 6 6. 2 4 2] : [ 4 5 4 0 7 4 9. 3 8, [ 2. 2 5 7, 1 2 8. 1 3 9, 0. 0 0 4, 0. 9 0 7, 6 4. 1 8 7, 4 0 8. 2 9 7, 4. 4 0 5, 1 6 9. 3 0 3] : [ 4 5 6 8 2 6 9. 5 5 9,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 4 5 3] 0. 4 5 2] 0. 4 5 3] 0. 4 4 8] 0. 4 5] 0. 4 5 1] 0. 4 4 6] 0. 4 5 2] 0. 4 5 1] 0. 4 5 1]

A595

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A596

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4 9. 5. 4. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 5 0 1- 2 1) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A597

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

V 1 0 WI M 0 8 2 0 5 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

65400000

st art _ d at e

199801010000

e n d _ d at e

200612310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 4. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 2. 9, 1 0 7. 0, 0. 2 5, 1 2. 6, 2 0 5. 0, 5 7 3. 0, 0. 1, 4 2 6. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 5, 5 3. 6, 0. 0 0 0 9, 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 0. 0 5, 1 0 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 3. 5, 2 5 0. 0, 0. 3, 1 4. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 6 5 0. 0, 2. 0, 5 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 2. 9), (' Ki', 1 0 7. 0), (' K g', 0. 2 5), (' Kss', 1 2. 6), (' g 0', 2 0 5. 0), (' g _ m a x', 5 7 3. 0), (' K _r u n', 0. 1), (' P _ m a x', 4 2 6. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:     

R el Err: 0. 1 4 A bs Err: 1 2 8 1 8 4 4 3. 7 0 4 K G E: 0. 3 0 1 N S _r el: - 2 6. 9 5 N S: - 0. 0 8 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A598

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

 

R M S E: 1 3 6 0 5 0 4 8. 3 2 2 N S _l o g: - 0. 5 7 4

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 8: 0 5: 4 1. 6 8 1 0 0 0 9. 5. 4. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 2. 8 1 1), (' Ki', 1 4 0. 6 5 5), (' K g', 0. 0 1 6), (' Kss', 9. 9 4 5), (' g 0', 1 6 9. 1 8 7), (' g _ m a x', 5 6 5. 8 4 4), (' K _r u n', 0. 9 8 3), (' P _ m a x', 3 1 1. 2 3 2)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 1 5 A bs Err: 3 8 3 2 3 1 3. 8 0 9 K G E: 0. 7 1 8 N S _r el: - 3. 6 8 9 N S: 0. 4 5 8 R M S E: 4 7 3 1 2 8 5. 0 4 3 N S _l o g: 0. 4 4 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A599

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A600

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A601

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A602

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A603

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4

: : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 0. 7 9 4, [ 2. 6 5 1, [ 2. 2 3 1, [ 0. 7 9 4, [ 2. 8 1 1,

Fi n al r e p ort

1 5 1. 6 3 7, 1 1 5. 5 8 7, 1 2 2. 6 5 6, 1 5 1. 6 3 7, 1 4 0. 6 5 5,

0. 0 0 1, 0. 0 1 3, 0. 0 1 4, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 0 1 6,

8. 9 4 3, 1 1. 3 8 5, 9. 8 8 9, 9. 8 0 3, 9. 9 4 5,

1 6 9. 7 3 7, 1 6 1. 3 4 1, 1 9 0. 6 3 9, 1 6 9. 7 3 7, 1 6 9. 1 8 7,

5 2 8. 1 1 2, 4 7 8. 3 1 4, 4 7 2. 4 6, 5 2 8. 1 1 2, 5 6 5. 8 4 4,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 8 5 2, 0. 8 3 1, 0. 1 7 2, 0. 8 5 2, 0. 9 8 3,

3 6 7. 9 0 6] 3 6 1. 7 2 4] 3 5 9. 8 2 6] 3 6 7. 9 0 6] 3 1 1. 2 3 2]

: : : : :

[ 2 7 9 2 8 7 8. 6 1 1, [ 4 7 1 5 5 1 4. 3 5 6, [ 9 1 2 9 0 5 1. 8 7 1, [ 2 7 9 2 8 7 8. 6 1 1, [ 3 8 3 2 3 1 3. 8 0 9,

0. 3 6 6] 0. 4 7 2] 0. 5 7 1] 0. 3 6 6] 0. 4 4 5]

A604

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 2 2

Fi n al v ersi o n

M e us e C ali br ati o n a n d V ali d ati o n .

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 605

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1 9. 5. 1. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9 " ( M e us e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9 ( M e us e)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A606

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11S A M7319

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

2669000000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 9

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 1 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 2. 1 8), (' Ki', 6 4. 1 5), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 3), (' g 0', 1 2 2. 2), (' g _ m a x', 5 0 9. 4), (' K _r u n', 2. 5 3), (' P _ m a x', 1 1 6. 0)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 7 %

7. 9 %

- 1 0. 1 %

0. 5 9 4

- 0. 1 4 6

0. 4 1 8

N S _l o g

0. 6 1 4

0. 2 8 6

0. 3 2 2

N S _r el

0. 7 2

0. 6 0 6

0. 4 2 1

K GE

0. 6 5 6

0. 3 4

0. 3 9

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

6. 8 %

1 0. 3 %

- 4. 2 %

0. 5 7 1

- 0. 2 5 8

0. 3 9 6

N S _l o g

0. 5 5 4

0. 0 0 5

0. 2 8 5

N S _r el

0. 7 1 3

0. 5 9 5

0. 4 2 5

K GE

0. 6 5 6

0. 2 8 6

0. 3 6 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A607

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9, st ati o n S a m b er, S alzi n n e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9, st ati o n S a m b er, S alzi n n e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A608

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9, st ati o n S a m b er, S alzi n n e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9, st ati o n S a m b er, S alzi n n e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A609

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9, st ati o n S a m b er, S alzi n n e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9, st ati o n S a m b er, S alzi n n e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A610

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2 9. 5. 2. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0 " ( M e us e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0 ( M e us e)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A611

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 BER551010

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

128000000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 7

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 4

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 9 2), (' Ki', 2 8. 3 8), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 4 7), (' g 0', 9 2. 6 6), (' g _ m a x', 4 5 2. 2 7), (' K _r u n', 7. 3 8), (' P _ m a x', 2 3 6. 4 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 0 4)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 5 %

- 3. 7 %

- 8. 7 %

0. 5 5 5

0. 4 2 6

0. 5 3

N S _l o g

0. 5 8 1

0. 4 9 5

0. 4 8

N S _r el

0. 4 8 2

0. 7 1 1

0. 3 5 4

K GE

0. 6 4 8

0. 5 4 7

0. 6 5 5

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 7 - 2 0 0 4)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

2. 9 %

- 0. 7 %

2. 3 %

0. 3 4 5

- 0. 4 8 4

0. 5 3 4

N S _l o g

0. 5 5 6

0. 4 6 9

0. 4 9 8

N S _r el

0. 2 6 9

0. 2 9 9

0. 0 2 9

K GE

0. 6 4

0. 3 8 5

0. 6 5 9

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A612

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A613

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A614

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n

9. 5. 3 9. 5. 3. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 " ( M e us e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( M e us e) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A615

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 H OY5990

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

5990

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 1

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 1 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 8 1), (' Ki', 1 1. 8 4), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 1. 8 8), (' g 0', 2 0 4. 9), (' g _ m a x', 5 0 2. 0 3), (' K _r u n', 8. 9 6), (' P _ m a x', 4 1 3. 3 7)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

4. 9 %

- 2 2. 4 %

1 3. 0 %

0. 2 2 9

- 2. 9

0. 3 7 6

N S _l o g

- 0. 2

- 4. 9 8 5

0. 4 6 8

N S _r el

0. 6 2 6

- 2. 3 6 7

0. 7 7 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A616

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

K GE

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

0. 6 2 1

- 0. 0 7 6

0. 5 0 1

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1. 4 %

- 3 0. 2 %

2 6. 5 %

0. 1 4 1

- 0. 7

0. 2 6 2

N S _l o g

- 0. 1 8 3

- 3. 4 9 4

0. 2 5 8

N S _r el

0. 4 2 3

- 0. 3 3 5

0. 4 1 4

K GE

0. 5 8 2

0. 3 0 5

0. 5 9 9

9. 5. 3. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0, st ati o n H o y o u x, M ar c hi n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A617

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0, st ati o n H o y o u x, M ar c hi n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0, st ati o n H o y o u x, M ar c hi n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A618

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0, st ati o n H o y o u x, M ar c hi n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0, st ati o n H o y o u x, M ar c hi n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A619

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0, st ati o n H o y o u x, M ar c hi n

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0, st ati o n H o y o u x, M ar c hi n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A620

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4 9. 5. 4. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0 " ( M e us e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0 ( M e us e)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A621

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 ME H5820

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

356000000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 1

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

0 3- 0 1- 2 0 1 1

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 2. 4), (' Ki', 5 2. 6 1), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 0 4), (' g 0', 2 7 0. 8 8), (' g _ m a x', 8 3 3. 2 3), (' K _r u n', 3. 0), (' P _ m a x', 6 0 7. 3 3)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 8)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

9. 8 %

4. 7 %

2 0. 1 %

0. 3 0 8

- 0. 2 2

0. 1 4 6

N S _l o g

0. 4 6 3

- 0. 8 5

0. 5 5 2

N S _r el

0. 5 8 1

0. 5 9 5

0. 3 9 5

K GE

0. 5 8 1

0. 4 5 3

0. 4 8 9

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 1 1)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1 2. 7 %

1 0. 6 %

2 0. 5 %

0. 1 2

- 0. 6 2 7

0. 0 4 1

N S _l o g

0. 4 4 3

- 0. 6 9 8

0. 4 0 7

N S _r el

0. 3 8

0. 4 0 7

0. 0 7 4

K GE

0. 4 8 8

0. 2 9 1

0. 4 6 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A622

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0, st ati o n M e h ai g n e, W a nz e( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0, st ati o n M e h ai g n e, W a nz e ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A623

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0, st ati o n M e h ai g n e, W a nz e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0, st ati o n M e h ai g n e, W a nz e ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A624

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0, st ati o n M e h ai g n e, W a nz e

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0, st ati o n M e h ai g n e, W a nz e

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A625

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0, st ati o n M e h ai g n e, W a nz e

9. 5. 5 9. 5. 5. 1

Fi n al r e p ort

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5 " ( M e us e) I n p ut d at a

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A626

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5 ( M e us e)

9. 5. 5. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 O UR5805

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

3612000000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 1

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 6

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 8 9), (' Ki', 8 3. 4), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 3. 0), (' g 0', 7 3. 0 5), (' g _ m a x', 2 9 5. 6), (' K _r u n', 4. 1 9), (' P _ m a x', 2 2 6. 7)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 1 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 0. 4 %

- 2 0. 5 %

- 2. 2 %

0. 3 9 1

0. 0 7 7

0. 1 4 5

N S _l o g

0. 6

0. 0 6 1

0. 2 5 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A627

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

N S _r el

0. 6 5 8

0. 5 5 4

0. 3 3 3

K GE

0. 6 3 7

0. 3 5 4

0. 4 3 3

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 6)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 9 %

- 1 5. 1 %

- 0. 6 %

0. 3 3 8

- 0. 1 1 1

0. 0 0 1

N S _l o g

0. 6 4 3

- 0. 0 7 9

0. 3 0 3

N S _r el

0. 7 3 2

0. 6 8 8

0. 1 9 5

K GE

0. 6 6 1

0. 3 6 1

0. 4 9 9

9. 5. 5. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5, st ati o n O urt h e, A n gl e ur 2 bis( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A628

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5, st ati o n O urt h e, A n gl e ur 2 bis ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5, st ati o n O urt h e, A n gl e ur 2 bis ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A629

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5, st ati o n O urt h e, A n gl e ur 2 bis ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5, st ati o n O urt h e, A n gl e ur 2 bi s

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A630

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5, st ati o n O urt h e, A n gl e ur 2 bi s

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5, st ati o n O urt h e, A n gl e ur 2 bi s

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A631

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6 9. 5. 6. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0 " ( M e us e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0 ( M e us e)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A632

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

465500000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 1 9 9 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 1 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 3 6), (' Ki', 4 2. 1 9), (' K g', 0. 0), (' Kss', 2. 0), (' g 0', 1 1 9. 7), (' g _ m a x', 2 7 4. 5), (' K _r u n', 3. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 0 2 7. 1 5)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

2 3. 9 %

- 1 7. 8 %

4 8. 4 %

- 2 1. 6 5 9

- 1 0. 1 7 6

- 1 6. 7 8 8

N S _l o g

- 6. 9 0 5

- 1 5. 3 8 9

- 4. 1 1 3

N S _r el

- 5. 4 3 6

- 2. 8 2 9

- 8. 2 6 2

K GE

- 3. 4 5 1

- 2. 1 3 8

- 2. 6 9 4

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 1 9 9 3 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

1 9. 6 %

- 4. 4 %

6 1. 3 %

- 1 2. 4 4 1

- 1 5. 7 5 1

- 1 1. 8 9 5

N S _l o g

- 6. 0 3 7

- 9. 5 2 1

- 3. 0 1 5

N S _r el

- 3. 5 7 8

- 2. 6 5 8

- 5. 0 8

K GE

- 2. 3 4 5

- 2. 7 6 1

- 2. 1 9 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A633

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A634

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A635

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A636

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0, st ati o n u n k o w n

9. 5. 7 9. 5. 7. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2" ( M e us e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( M e us e) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A637

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

F11 M A A8702

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

10120000000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 1 3

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 1. 4), (' Ki', 1 1 3. 7), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 8), (' g 0', 1 5 0. 4 8), (' g _ m a x', 2 6 3. 2 7), (' K _r u n', 2. 7 8), (' P _ m a x', 7 4. 7 1)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 1 %

4. 2 %

- 9. 6 %

0. 4 2 7

0. 3 6 9

0. 0 3 2

N S _l o g

0. 7 4 7

0. 4 8 8

0. 3 4 4

N S _r el

0. 7 2 2

0. 7 0 2

0. 4 0 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A638

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

K GE

0. 7 1 7

0. 4 5 4

0. 5 3 9

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 1 3)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

0. 2 %

0. 9 %

- 7. 7 %

0. 4 2 8

0. 3 8 9

0. 0 1 7

N S _l o g

0. 7 5 5

0. 4 2 1

0. 4 0 8

N S _r el

0. 7 6 6

0. 7 0 6

0. 4 4

K GE

0. 7 2 2

0. 5 1 5

0. 5 5 2

9. 5. 7. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2, st ati o n M e us e, C h o oz( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A639

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2, st ati o n M e us e, C h o oz ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2, st ati o n M e us e, C h o oz ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A640

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2, st ati o n M e us e, C h o oz ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2, st ati o n M e us e, C h o oz

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A641

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2, st ati o n M e us e, C h o oz

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2, st ati o n M e us e, C h o oz

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A642

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8 9. 5. 8. 1

C ali br ati o n a n d v ali d ati o n of W E T p ar a m et ers f or c at c h m e nt " W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6 " ( M e us e) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: C u m ul ati v e pr e ci pit ati o n o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6 ( M e us e)

9. 5. 8. 2

M o d el s u m m ar y

m o d el _str u ct ur e Fi n al r e p ort

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1 W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A643

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 M A AP R OF1 25 86

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a [ m 2]

12586000000

V ali d ati o n st art _ d at e

0 1- 0 1- 2 0 0 3

V ali d ati o n e n d _ d at e

3 1- 1 2- 2 0 0 7

fr e q u e n c y

d ail y

O pti m al p ar a m et er s et: [(' K e p', 0. 6 9), (' Ki', 4 6. 6 7), (' K g', 0. 0 7), (' Kss', 0. 6 8), (' g 0', 2 8 3. 1 1), (' g _ m a x', 3 4 4. 6 9), (' K _r u n', 2. 7 7), (' P _ m a x', 5 3. 7 7)] T a bl e 1: G o o d n ess of fit f or c ali br ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 2)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

- 1. 6 %

7 1. 2 %

- 2 2. 0 %

0. 6 6 7

- 0. 5 9 5

0. 4 5 5

N S _l o g

0. 6 2 2

- 0. 8 4 4

0. 5 7 3

N S _r el

0. 2 4 3

- 1. 2 6 1

0. 7 5 6

K GE

0. 6 3 8

0. 2 5 3

0. 4 7 8

T a bl e 2 : G o o d n ess of fit f or v ali d ati o n p eri o d ( 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 7)

F ull y e ar

S u m m er

Wi nt er

R el Err

5. 2 %

5 4. 6 %

- 1 2. 3 %

0. 7 1 8

- 0. 4 2 3

0. 6 0 9

N S _l o g

0. 5 9 1

- 0. 1 9 4

0. 6 4 1

N S _r el

0. 3 9 5

- 0. 5 8 7

0. 6 5 6

K GE

0. 6 8 4

0. 2 4 9

0. 5 9 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A644

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 3

O bs er v e d a n d si m ul at e d ti m es eri es f or o pti m u m p ar a m et er s

Fi g ur e 3: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6, st ati o n u n k o w n( c ali br ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 4: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6, st ati o n u n k o w n ( c ali br ati o n p eri o d) Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A645

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 5: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi g ur e 6: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) c u m ul ati v e dis c h ar g e [ m³] o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6, st ati o n u n k o w n ( v ali d ati o n p eri o d)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A646

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 7: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6, st ati o n u n k o w n

Fi g ur e 8: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6, st ati o n u n k o w n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A647

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/ s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6, st ati o n u n k o w n

Fi g ur e 1 0: M e a s ur e d (r e d) a n d si m ul at e d ( bl u e) d ail y di s c h ar g e [ m³/s] d uri n g s p e cifi c l o w a n d hi g h fl o w e v e nts o n c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6, st ati o n u n k o w n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A648

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi es i n t h e S c h el dt b asi n S u b r e p ort 4 - 5 – A n al ys es of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d els f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

A p p e n di x 2 3 M e us e A ut o c ali br ati o n.

Fi n al v ersi o n

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4 -5

A 649

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1 9. 5. 1. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 1 1 S A M 7 3 1 9 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 7 1 5- 3 6) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A650

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11S A M7319

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

2669000000

st art _ d at e

200701010000

e n d _ d at e

201212310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 1. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 3, 1. 1 5, 5 0. 0, 9 0. 0, 1. 0, 3 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 7 5, 5. 0, 0. 0 0 0 9, 0. 5, 5 0. 0, 5 0. 0, 0. 5, 1 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 5. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 4. 0, 4 5 0. 0, 9 0 0. 0, 1 0. 0, 4 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 5 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 3), (' Kss', 1. 1 5), (' g 0', 5 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 9 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 1. 0), (' P _ m a x', 3 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:      

R el Err: 0. 0 7 6 A bs Err: 2 1 3 2 5 8 8 5 6. 4 0 6 K G E: 0. 6 6 N S _r el: 0. 3 0 1 N S: 0. 2 9 8 R M S E: 2 6 1 6 1 9 1 3 3. 9 2 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A651

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A



N S _l o g: 0. 3 5 3

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 3: 3 6: 2 5. 4 7 3 0 0 0 9. 5. 1. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 2. 1 8 9), (' Ki', 6 4. 1 5 5), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 3 0 1), (' g 0', 1 2 2. 2 2 1), (' g _ m a x', 5 0 9. 4 0 3), (' K _r u n', 2. 5 3 6), (' P _ m a x', 1 1 6. 0 5 9)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 0 7 A bs Err: 8 3 2 0 7 3 5 2. 3 0 7 K G E: 0. 6 5 6 N S _r el: 0. 7 2 N S: 0. 5 9 4 R M S E: 9 5 8 5 3 5 8 0. 2 4 2 N S _l o g: 0. 6 1 4

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A652

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A653

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A654

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A655

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A656

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 1. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

: : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 2. 5 0 1, [ 2. 6 2 6, [ 2. 5 9, [ 2. 4 4 3, [ 2. 6 1 6, [ 2. 1 8 9, [ 2. 4 9 7, [ 2. 4 9 1,

Fi n al r e p ort

5 8. 6 7 2, 0. 0 1, 1. 4 1 4, 1 8 9. 6 5 8, 8 3 5. 9 7 6, 2. 2 5 5, 2 1 1. 2 1 4] : [ 1 0 5 3 1 1 5 1 3. 4 8 9, 6 4. 6 0 2, 0. 0 1, 2. 6 1 8, 1 0 8. 2 1 9, 9 0 0. 0, 2. 3 6 7, 2 0 4. 4 4 1] : [ 1 8 8 9 3 4 4 9 4. 2 1 8, 6 7. 8 4, 0. 0 1, 2. 3 2 5, 1 4 5. 0 5 8, 8 8 0. 6 8 1, 2. 2 4 5, 2 1 8. 5 1 4] : [ 1 5 5 7 5 9 1 8 0. 4 1 6, 6 5. 1 3 6, 0. 0 1, 2. 9 6 4, 9 3. 7 2 8, 9 0 0. 0, 2. 3 2 6, 1 3 2. 3 1 5] : [ 8 2 4 7 1 1 3 5. 0 2 9, 6 6. 2 9 4, 0. 0 1, 1. 9 9 6, 1 1 7. 7 3 2, 8 8 8. 1 6 4, 2. 3 3 9, 2 0 8. 2 9 3] : [ 1 8 3 2 0 7 3 4 5. 0 4 2, 6 4. 1 5 5, 0. 0 1, 2. 3 0 1, 1 2 2. 2 2 1, 5 0 9. 4 0 3, 2. 5 3 6, 1 1 6. 0 5 9] : [ 8 3 2 0 7 3 5 2. 3 0 7, 6 5. 4 0 7, 0. 0 1, 2. 9 3 6, 1 3 0. 3 6 6, 8 9 4. 5 8 6, 1. 8 7 9, 1 6 9. 5 4 3] : [ 7 9 8 3 5 4 8 8. 3 1 9, 5 3. 2 0 7, 0. 0 1, 2. 2 9 3, 1 1 7. 8 9 1, 8 8 8. 1 3 3, 2. 2 9 6, 1 2 2. 9 5 8] : [ 9 1 7 4 8 9 8 5. 5 5 1,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 1 9] 0. 6 2 1] 0. 6 2] 0. 6 1 3] 0. 6 2 1] 0. 6 1 4] 0. 6 0 3] 0. 6 1 6]

A657

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2 9. 5. 2. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 1 1 B E R 5 5 1 0 1 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 1- 2 5 0 3- 1 2) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 2. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A658

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 BER551010

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

128000000

st art _ d at e

200001010000

e n d _ d at e

200412310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 2. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 2. 0, 2 5. 0, 0. 0 0 4, 0. 9, 8 0. 0, 5 0 0. 0, 7. 0, 1 3 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 0, 1 2. 5, 0. 0 0 0 7, 0. 4 5, 4 0. 0, 2 5 0. 0, 3. 5, 6 5. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 3. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 5. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 6 0 0. 0, 9. 0, 3 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 2. 0), (' Ki', 2 5. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 4), (' Kss', 0. 9), (' g 0', 8 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 5 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 7. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 3 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 1 4 3 A bs Err: 2 0 0 8 8 4 3 7. 2 1 4 K G E: 0. 5 6 1 N S _r el: 0. 6 3 6 N S: 0. 5 1 3 R M S E: 2 3 8 6 8 5 5 2. 8 5 5 N S _l o g: 0. 5 8 7

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 9: 5 1: 3 3. 4 0 8 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A659

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 9 2 3), (' Ki', 2 8. 3 8 1), (' K g', 0. 0 0 6), (' Kss', 2. 4 7 3), (' g 0', 9 2. 6 6 1), (' g _ m a x', 4 5 2. 2 7 2), (' K _r u n', 7. 3 8 4), (' P _ m a x', 2 3 6. 4 1 6)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 0 5 A bs Err: 3 7 1 0 8 3 7. 3 4 2 K G E: 0. 6 4 8 N S _r el: 0. 4 8 2 N S: 0. 5 5 5 R M S E: 4 5 6 5 7 3 8. 2 9 N S _l o g: 0. 5 8 1

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A660

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A661

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A662

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 2. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A663

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 2. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4

: : : : :

Fi n al r e p ort

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 8 5 5, [ 1. 9 2 3, [ 1. 8 7 2, [ 1. 8 5 6, [ 1. 8 5 2,

3 0. 1 7 9, 2 8. 3 8 1, 3 0. 0 7 9, 3 1. 1 5 8, 2 8. 4 4,

0. 0 0 5, 0. 0 0 6, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 0 0 6, 0. 0 0 6,

1. 9 7 2, 2. 4 7 3, 1. 5 9, 2. 5 3 3, 2. 5 0 8,

9 1. 7 4 1, 9 2. 6 6 1, 9 1. 6 5 6, 9 5. 7 4 3, 9 4. 2 8 5,

4 0 1. 4 9 8, 4 5 2. 2 7 2, 4 0 9. 4 2 5, 3 9 8. 9 2 6, 3 9 5. 5 7 7,

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

6. 2 8 8, 7. 3 8 4, 7. 8 2 4, 5. 6 5 5, 5. 9 6 4,

2 3 9. 1 2 1] 2 3 6. 4 1 6] 2 3 3. 0 1 1] 2 3 2. 7 2 6] 2 3 6. 6 8 5]

: : : : :

[ 6 1 6 4 1 5 9. 1 8 4, [ 3 7 1 0 8 3 7. 3 4 2, [ 8 5 1 5 6 7 3. 0 2 4, [ 3 3 9 6 8 3 7. 1 8 2, [ 3 4 9 1 1 0 2. 6 4 7,

0. 5 8 4] 0. 5 8 1] 0. 5 9 7] 0. 5 6 9] 0. 5 7 5]

A664

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A665

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3 9. 5. 3. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 1 1 H O Y 5 9 9 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 9 2 0- 5 9) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 3. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A666

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 H OY5990

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

5990

st art _ d at e

200901010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 3. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 2 0. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 6 8, 1 8 0. 9 3, 4 2 2. 3 4, 6. 4 8, 3 0 8. 1 2]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 7, 1 0. 0, 0. 0 0 0 7, 1. 3, 1 4 4. 7, 3 3 7. 0, 4. 0, 2 4 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 9, 3 0. 0, 0. 0 1 2, 2. 5, 3 1 7. 1, 5 5 0. 0, 1 2. 0, 4 7 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 2 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 1. 6 8), (' g 0', 1 8 0. 9 3), (' g _ m a x', 4 2 2. 3 4), (' K _r u n', 6. 4 8), (' P _ m a x', 3 0 8. 1 2)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 6 2 8 A bs Err: 7 6 5 0 5 7 9 1. 4 0 7 K G E: 0. 0 1 7 N S _r el: - 0. 8 7 6 N S: - 1. 3 3 5 R M S E: 8 6 6 7 8 0 8 6. 2 5 5 N S _l o g: - 0. 6 5 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A667

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 4: 5 9: 4 7. 3 0 5 0 0 0 9. 5. 3. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 8 0 9), (' Ki', 1 1. 8 4 7), (' K g', 0. 0 0 2), (' Kss', 1. 8 8 4), (' g 0', 2 0 4. 8 9 6), (' g _ m a x', 5 0 2. 0 3 4), (' K _r u n', 8. 9 5 9), (' P _ m a x', 4 1 3. 3 7 1)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 4 9 A bs Err: 6 5 0 7 3 7 7. 4 0 8 K G E: 0. 6 2 1 N S _r el: 0. 6 2 6 N S: 0. 2 2 9 R M S E: 7 7 1 2 8 8 2. 1 9 6 N S _l o g: - 0. 2

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A668

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A669

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A670

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A671

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A672

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 3. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 9, 1 5. 8 5 4, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 2 2, 1 8 9. 8 6 6, 4 9 8. 2 5 2, 8. 8 7 1, 4 3 5. 4 1 1] : [ 4 2 9 7 7 7 0. 4 2 7, - 0. 7 1 4] 1 : [ 1. 1 8 4, 1 1. 5 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 9 5 7, 2 0 9. 6 0 1, 4 8 3. 3 1 5, 9. 7 6 7, 3 8 7. 8 6 2] : [ 2 0 3 2 5 7 7 4. 2 8 8, 0. 0 8 5] 2 : [ 1. 8 0 3, 1 2. 2 4 3, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 5 0 7, 2 0 5. 7 1 3, 4 9 0. 3 6 6, 1 1. 3 7 7, 4 0 1. 3 3] : [ 1 3 6 7 3 3 4 2. 2 9, - 0. 1 1 7] 3 : [ 1. 8 0 9, 1 1. 8 4 7, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 8 8 4, 2 0 4. 8 9 6, 5 0 2. 0 3 4, 8. 9 5 9, 4 1 3. 3 7 1] : [ 6 5 0 7 3 7 7. 4 0 8, - 0. 2] 4 : [ 1. 7 8 8, 1 3. 0 8 7, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 7 7, 2 1 4. 0 3 3, 5 0 1. 2 7 4, 1 0. 2 0 5, 4 2 4. 5 4 3] : [ 1 1 7 6 3 3 8 7. 1 5 7, - 0. 1 2 6] 5 : [ 1. 7 8, 1 2. 2 7 6, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 1 6 2, 2 1 2. 6 7 2, 4 9 1. 9 5 1, 9. 0 3 9, 4 3 5. 4 1 4] : [ 8 9 1 2 7 4 8. 5 8 9, - 0. 1 5 9] 6 : [ 1. 9, 1 5. 3 6 5, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 5, 2 0 1. 6 9 6, 4 9 7. 5 6 9, 8. 9 1 7, 4 3 4. 5 4 9] : [ 4 3 3 6 6 0 4. 6 6 9, - 0. 6 8 3] 7 : [ 1. 5 3 7, 1 2. 1 4 6, 0. 0 0 2, 1. 8 7 4, 2 0 9. 6 9 3, 4 8 6. 5 5 1, 9. 8 4 4, 4 1 1. 8 1 7] : [ 2 7 6 2 4 7 4 0. 8 0 4, 0. 1 5 2] 8 : [ 1. 5 8 7, 1 3. 2, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 5, 2 1 1. 7 8 7, 4 8 9. 4 8, 1 0. 7 1 6, 4 1 9. 4 2 4] : [ 2 4 3 4 2 8 9 8. 4 4 8, 0. 1 2 1] 9 : [ 1. 9, 1 7. 0 6 7, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 3 5 9, 1 9 7. 1 0 1, 4 9 7. 9 3 5, 1 0. 6 6, 4 0 1. 5 9 4] : [ 4 2 7 4 2 7 6. 0, - 0. 7 2 1] 1 0 : [ 1. 9, 1 7. 1 9 1, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 5, 1 9 6. 4 2 1, 4 9 7. 6 8 5, 9. 1 0 8, 3 8 5. 2 1 5] : [ 4 2 5 2 6 7 5. 1 6 7, - 0. 7 7 6] 1 1 : [ 1. 3 5 6, 1 2. 2 4 4, 0. 0 0 1, 2. 1 5 7, 2 0 9. 8 5 2, 4 9 5. 1 1 5, 9. 2 3 5, 4 1 7. 6 1 6] : [ 4 3 4 4 3 8 6. 2 0 4, - 0. 2 9] 1 2 : [ 1. 8 1, 1 2. 5 2 2, 0. 0 0 2, 2. 5, 2 1 0. 9 8 2, 4 9 1. 0 8 4, 9. 2 2, 4 2 4. 7 1 4] : [ 6 4 6 9 1 2 9. 0 5 2, - 0. 2 4 9] 1 3 : [ 1. 5 4 8, 1 2. 7 8 2, 0. 0 0 1, 2. 3 0 6, 2 1 0. 5 4 2, 4 8 9. 9 6 3, 9. 5 9 5, 4 2 1. 4 2 1] : [ 1 3 8 4 4 4 6 2. 7 3 7, 0. 0 2 5]

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A673

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4 9. 5. 4. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M E H 5 8 2 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 1 4 0 5- 3 6) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A674

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 ME H5820

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

356000000

st art _ d at e

200101010000

e n d _ d at e

200801030000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 4. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A675

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 2. 0, 6 2. 0 8 7, 0. 0 0 4, 1. 6 2, 1 7 2. 2 3, 7 0 5. 1, 2. 4, 5 5 7. 6 6]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 6, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 1. 2, 1 3 7. 7, 5 6 0. 0, 1. 6, 4 5 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 4, 8 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 2. 5, 3 0 0. 0, 9 5 0. 0, 3. 0, 1 0 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 2. 0), (' Ki', 6 2. 0 8 7), (' K g', 0. 0 0 4), (' Kss', 1. 6 2), (' g 0', 1 7 2. 2 3), (' g _ m a x', 7 0 5. 1), (' K _r u n', 2. 4), (' P _ m a x', 5 5 7. 6 6)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 1 3 1 A bs Err: 3 8 9 4 9 2 3 0. 3 3 4 K G E: 0. 3 9 6 N S _r el: 0. 1 7 2 N S: - 0. 0 9 6 R M S E: 4 6 1 2 7 0 8 6. 3 8 1 N S _l o g: 0. 3 0 7

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 2 0: 3 6: 2 2. 9 5 3 0 0 0 9. 5. 4. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 2. 4), (' Ki', 5 2. 6 1 8), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 0 4 5), (' g 0', 2 7 0. 8 8 2), (' g _ m a x', 8 3 3. 2 3 6), (' K _r u n', 3. 0), (' P _ m a x', 6 0 7. 3 3 5)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 9 8 A bs Err: 2 9 2 0 1 8 9 9. 9 4 7 K G E: 0. 5 8 1 N S _r el: 0. 5 8 1 N S: 0. 3 0 8 R M S E: 3 5 4 4 5 6 4 5. 3 1 4 N S _l o g: 0. 4 6 3

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A676

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A677

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A678

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A679

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A680

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 4. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Fi n al ar c hi v e

: [ 2. 1 6, 5 2. 6 4 3, 0. 0 1, 1. 9 7 8, 2 7 0. 9 1 4, 8 3 3. 7 7 9, 3. 0, 6 1 2. 6 0 5] : [ 5 9 7 1 8 5 5 4. 9 4 4, : [ 2. 4, 5 1. 4 6 6, 0. 0 1, 2. 0 4 9, 2 4 7. 3 3 2, 7 9 9. 5 5 4, 3. 0, 5 7 8. 8 4 4] : [ 2 7 8 1 7 2 1 0. 7 6 4, : [ 2. 4, 5 4. 2 8 7, 0. 0 1, 2. 3 5, 2 3 9. 1 1, 7 4 9. 5 4 5, 3. 0, 5 9 2. 9 8 7] : [ 2 6 0 8 7 7 2 7. 4 1 6, : [ 2. 4, 5 3. 5 7 9, 0. 0 1, 2. 5, 2 6 5. 2 4 6, 8 2 9. 2, 3. 0, 6 1 4. 5 2 1] : [ 2 9 0 9 0 6 8 1. 2 4 8, : [ 2. 4, 5 1. 7 6 4, 0. 0 1, 2. 4 5 3, 2 6 6. 8 1 9, 8 0 4. 5 6 9, 3. 0, 5 8 8. 4 7 4] : [ 2 8 0 7 5 0 5 4. 2 5 8, : [ 2. 2 2 9, 5 5. 9 6, 0. 0 1, 2. 1 4 2, 2 5 4. 9 5 1, 8 3 5. 8 3 3, 3. 0, 6 0 0. 7 8 5] : [ 5 0 6 8 3 5 4 2. 4 0 9, : [ 2. 3 4 6, 5 2. 5 8 8, 0. 0 1, 2. 1 4 3, 2 6 5. 5 8, 8 3 3. 1 4 4, 3. 0, 6 0 7. 5 3 8] : [ 3 5 7 1 2 8 6 3. 1 3 1, : [ 2. 3 0 7, 5 2. 8 3 4, 0. 0 1, 2. 3 5 3, 2 7 1. 9 9, 8 3 1. 7 3 8, 3. 0, 6 0 7. 9 4 8] : [ 4 0 4 6 8 4 3 7. 0 0 1, : [ 2. 2 3 7, 5 4. 4 2 9, 0. 0 1, 2. 4 4 8, 2 5 9. 3 3, 8 2 1. 4 1 6, 3. 0, 6 1 0. 3 7 4] : [ 4 9 0 7 8 9 8 7. 2 4 2, : [ 2. 4, 5 2. 4 1 6, 0. 0 1, 2. 4 8 4, 2 6 6. 5 3 5, 8 1 1. 7 3 4, 3. 0, 5 9 4. 9 3 7] : [ 2 8 3 9 0 4 8 0. 3 4 2, : [ 2. 4, 5 1. 5 4, 0. 0 1, 2. 2 3 2, 2 4 5. 6 4 4, 7 8 2. 6 4 2, 3. 0, 5 9 0. 8 8 7] : [ 2 7 1 5 1 7 3 8. 7 7 5, : [ 2. 3 7, 5 3. 3 6 5, 0. 0 1, 2. 5, 2 6 0. 8 5 7, 8 2 5. 4 5 5, 3. 0, 6 0 9. 6 1 9] : [ 3 2 5 3 1 0 3 7. 4 7 9, : [ 2. 3 1 8, 5 3. 5 4 8, 0. 0 1, 1. 7 5 1, 2 6 1. 6 3, 8 2 5. 9 6 4, 3. 0, 5 9 8. 8 6 4] : [ 3 9 0 0 4 2 7 7. 9 4 1, : [ 2. 3 9 8, 5 3. 6 4 1, 0. 0 1, 1. 7 8 2, 2 3 5. 2 8 1, 7 5 5. 8 2 8, 3. 0, 5 9 7. 3 9 3] : [ 2 6 5 5 0 0 2 0. 8 9 7, : [ 2. 2 2 7, 5 2. 6 1 5, 0. 0 1, 2. 1 2 8, 2 6 8. 8 7, 8 3 2. 3 2 3, 3. 0, 6 0 8. 5 6 3] : [ 5 0 7 0 6 5 8 1. 8 8 7, : [ 2. 3 0 2, 5 1. 0 5 3, 0. 0 1, 2. 1 9 3, 2 6 9. 3 6 4, 8 3 6. 3 7 1, 3. 0, 6 1 3. 4 3 1] : [ 4 1 0 5 6 7 6 7. 5 3, : [ 2. 4, 5 2. 6 1 8, 0. 0 1, 2. 0 4 5, 2 7 0. 8 8 2, 8 3 3. 2 3 6, 3. 0, 6 0 7. 3 3 5] : [ 2 9 2 0 1 8 9 9. 9 4 7, : [ 2. 3 5 7, 5 1. 2 9 9, 0. 0 1, 2. 3 8 7, 2 7 0. 1 3, 8 3 0. 2 3 5, 3. 0, 5 9 7. 3 0 4] : [ 3 4 0 9 7 6 4 4. 9 2 6, : [ 2. 3 1 6, 5 1. 8 3 5, 0. 0 1, 2. 3 4 2, 2 7 2. 2 9 5, 8 3 1. 6 4 7, 3. 0, 6 1 3. 9 9] : [ 3 9 2 5 9 7 4 7. 2 4 6, : [ 2. 4, 5 5. 2 6 2, 0. 0 1, 1. 9 1 3, 2 5 4. 9 4 1, 7 3 4. 0 9 9, 3. 0, 5 9 9. 4 9] : [ 2 5 6 4 3 5 6 8. 0 1 8, : [ 2. 3 4 5, 5 2. 7 6 1, 0. 0 1, 2. 3 7 6, 2 7 1. 3 6 1, 8 2 9. 7 0 8, 3. 0, 6 0 8. 7 8 4] : [ 3 5 6 6 0 0 4 5. 7 7 1,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 5 0 8] 0. 4 5 1] 0. 4 2 1] 0. 4 6] 0. 4 5 3] 0. 4 9 7] 0. 4 7 9] 0. 4 8 7] 0. 4 9 5] 0. 4 5 5] 0. 4 4 4] 0. 4 6 8] 0. 4 8 2] 0. 4 2 7] 0. 5 0 2] 0. 4 9 3] 0. 4 6 3] 0. 4 7 8] 0. 4 8 7] 0. 4 1 1] 0. 4 7 8]

A681

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5 9. 5. 5. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 1 1 O U R 5 8 0 5 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 7 0 1- 4 9) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A682

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 O UR5805

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

3612000000

st art _ d at e

200301010000

e n d _ d at e

201212310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 5. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A683

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 5, 2 0. 0, 0. 0 2 5, 1. 0 5, 4 0. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 3. 0, 1 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 1. 0, 1 4. 0, 0. 0 0 0 9, 0. 7 3, 2 8. 0, 1 4 0. 0, 2. 1, 7 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 3. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 2 0 0. 0, 4 0 0. 0, 6. 0, 4 0 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 5), (' Ki', 2 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 2 5), (' Kss', 1. 0 5), (' g 0', 4 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 2 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 3. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 4 5 3 A bs Err: 3 6 6 5 1 8 7 2 2 6. 0 9 K G E: 0. 4 8 8 N S _r el: 0. 0 3 4 N S: 0. 3 0 7 R M S E: 4 3 0 8 4 6 9 3 1 6. 3 9 N S _l o g: 0. 4 0 1

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 8: 2 2: 5 8. 2 0 0 0 0 0 9. 5. 5. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 8 9 1), (' Ki', 8 3. 4 7 2), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 3. 0), (' g 0', 7 3. 0 5 9), (' g _ m a x', 2 9 5. 6 1 3), (' K _r u n', 4. 1 9 1), (' P _ m a x', 2 2 6. 7 0 2)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 0 4 A bs Err: 1 6 8 4 2 7 6 5 7. 0 4 6 K G E: 0. 6 3 7 N S _r el: 0. 6 5 8 N S: 0. 3 9 1 R M S E: 2 0 0 9 2 3 1 5 5. 9 6 2 N S _l o g: 0. 6

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A684

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A685

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A686

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 5. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A687

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

9. 5. 5. 4. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

: : : : : : : : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 8 9 2, 8 1. 1 9 5, 0. 0 1, 2. 0 4 7, 6 9. 0 4 2, 3 0 9. 8 5 5, 4. 5 6 5, 2 2 6. 2 1 6] : [ 1. 8 8 4, 8 1. 1 5, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 8 6. 3 4 1, 2 8 5. 5 0 3, 4. 1 7 3, 2 2 8. 5 8 1] : [ 1. 8 9 4, 7 7. 2 9 9, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 7 0. 9 3 1, 2 9 9. 0 6 3, 4. 5 3 2, 2 2 7. 8 1 5] : [ 1. 8 8 7, 8 2. 1 0 4, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 7 5. 8 8 5, 2 9 9. 2 7 9, 4. 1 8 2, 2 2 5. 9 6 8] [ 1. 8 8 6, 7 9. 4 5 8, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 7 7. 3 3 1, 3 0 2. 1 6 4, 4. 2 5 9, 2 2 6. 7 8 1] : [ 1. 8 8 3, 8 0. 1 1, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 8 3. 7 5 6, 2 9 9. 1 9 8, 4. 2 5 9, 2 2 8. 0 7 1] : [ 1. 8 9 3, 8 2. 6 8 3, 0. 0 1, 2. 4 3 9, 7 1. 7 5 7, 2 9 7. 3 4 1, 4. 3 6 2, 2 2 6. 0 4 6] : [ 1. 8 8 4, 8 0. 5 0 3, 0. 0 1, 2. 4 6 5, 8 0. 7 5 4, 2 9 8. 6 1 9, 4. 3 0 4, 2 2 7. 5 5 6] : [ 1. 8 9 2, 8 0. 4 1 2, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 6 9. 7 1 7, 2 9 0. 3 2 2, 4. 3 5 4, 2 2 6. 3 1 6] : [ 1. 8 9 1, 8 3. 4 7 2, 0. 0 1, 3. 0, 7 3. 0 5 9, 2 9 5. 6 1 3, 4. 1 9 1, 2 2 6. 7 0 2] : [ 1. 8 8 4, 7 9. 9 8 9, 0. 0 1, 2. 3, 7 5. 0 6 2, 2 9 4. 7 1 9, 3. 1 9, 2 2 5. 9 8 4] :

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

[ 2 1 2 1 6 6 9 7 5. 4 6 5, 0. 6 0 4] [ 1 6 7 4 7 2 8 2 3. 6 0 1, 0. 5 9 8] [ 1 8 5 2 6 8 1 1 4. 7 6 3, 0. 6 0 2] : [ 1 7 5 4 2 0 4 4 6. 3, 0. 6 0 2] [ 1 9 5 2 3 0 1 5 5. 5 8 5, 0. 6 0 3] [ 1 8 7 2 5 8 0 3 1. 1 3 5, 0. 6 0 3] [ 1 7 1 8 9 5 8 0 1. 7 9 1, 0. 6 0 1] [ 1 7 9 8 0 8 2 4 7. 5 3 9, 0. 6 0 2] [ 1 6 8 3 9 6 9 4 1. 1 0 5, 0. 5 9 9] : [ 1 6 8 4 2 7 6 5 7. 0 4 6, 0. 6] [ 1 6 7 1 5 5 4 6 8. 5 9 1, 0. 5 9 2]

A688

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A689

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6 9. 5. 6. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 7 2 0- 1 8) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 6. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A690

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W 1 1J E K 5 5 3 0 1 0

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

465500000

st art _ d at e

200901010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 6. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 0, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 0 4, 1. 1 5, 7 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 1. 5, 1 0 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 7, 3 5. 0, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5, 3 5. 0, 7 5. 0, 0. 7 5, 5 0. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 0, 1 0 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 2. 0, 1 4 0. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 3. 0, 2 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 0), (' Ki', 5 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 0 4), (' Kss', 1. 1 5), (' g 0', 7 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 1 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 1. 5), (' P _ m a x', 1 0 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 1. 1 7 6 A bs Err: 1 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 4. 0 8 6 K G E: - 5. 2 4 4 N S _r el: - 1 4. 6 2 5 N S: - 4 7. 1 3 7 R M S E: 2 0 9 7 0 6 2 0 1. 9 7 7 N S _l o g: - 5. 4 8 7

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 d a y, 1 0: 2 8: 1 2. 0 4 9 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A691

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 3 6 7), (' Ki', 4 2. 1 1 9), (' K g', 0. 0 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 0), (' g 0', 1 1 9. 7 9 2), (' g _ m a x', 2 7 4. 5 1 2), (' K _r u n', 3. 0), (' P _ m a x', 1 2 7. 1 5 5)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 2 3 9 A bs Err: 3 7 8 3 3 6 5 4. 9 9 1 K G E: - 3. 4 5 1 N S _r el: - 5. 4 3 6 N S: - 2 1. 6 5 9 R M S E: 4 8 6 8 5 1 3 4. 7 4 3 N S _l o g: - 6. 9 0 5

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A692

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A693

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A694

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A695

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A696

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 6. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 1. 1 2 4, 4 4. 9 8 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 7 0 2, 1 1 7. 0 1 2, 2 7 5. 9 8 3, 3. 0, 1 2 5. 0 5 5] : [ 6 9 4 8 5 0 4 4. 9 8 1, - 4. 0 8 5] 1 : [ 1. 6 0 1, 4 3. 5 7 1, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 6 6, 1 1 8. 8 9 4, 2 7 4. 5 5 5, 3. 0, 1 3 5. 8 2 2] : [ 2 2 5 6 0 9 9 5. 7 7 5, - 1 0. 6 2 3] 2 : [ 1. 8 0 6, 4 4. 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 2 8, 9 4. 3 1 7, 2 4 9. 7 4 2, 2. 9 6 9, 1 3 6. 8 7 8] : [ 1 3 1 7 2 6 8 1. 3 6 6, - 1 6. 2 9 7] 3 : [ 1. 7 0 6, 4 4. 0 1 8, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 6 4, 1 0 4. 2 7 2, 2 4 8. 7 2 8, 2. 9 0 5, 1 3 5. 5 8 7] : [ 1 7 3 8 6 1 9 8. 1 2 6, - 1 4. 3 3 2] 4 : [ 1. 8 3 5, 5 0. 4 7 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 6 5, 1 0 5. 2 9 8, 2 6 8. 2 3 4, 3. 0, 1 3 9. 8 1 5] : [ 1 4 2 2 5 9 6 2. 2 3 7, - 1 5. 9 7 1] 5 : [ 1. 6 7 4, 4 5. 1 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 5 2 4, 1 0 3. 6 0 8, 2 7 0. 3 5 8, 3. 0, 1 2 7. 4 3 5] : [ 1 9 5 0 6 6 0 4. 3 4 9, - 1 2. 3 3 7] 6 : [ 1. 6 3, 4 3. 7 0 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 9 3 4, 1 1 4. 8 2 8, 2 6 9. 8 0 2, 2. 9 7, 1 3 6. 1 1 1] : [ 2 1 1 8 2 9 9 5. 9 1 7, - 1 1. 4 5 7] 7 : [ 2. 0, 4 2. 4 7 1, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5, 1 1 8. 1 9 8, 2 6 9. 4 6 6, 2. 9, 1 2 9. 1 5 2] : [ 1 0 2 4 8 5 9 4. 2 6 7, - 1 7. 3 5 4] 8 : [ 1. 0 0 5, 4 6. 6 4 8, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 5 0 8, 1 1 6. 2 4 7, 2 5 2. 7 7 9, 3. 0, 1 2 5. 9 3 1] : [ 8 8 4 0 1 0 3 3. 2 3 4, - 3. 5 5 4] 9 : [ 1. 1 0 6, 4 4. 2 5 9, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 5 9 8, 1 1 9. 1 5 3, 2 7 6. 0 4 5, 2. 8 9 8, 1 2 7. 1 0 9] : [ 7 4 0 4 1 1 1 9. 0 3, - 3. 9 3] 1 0 : [ 1. 3 1 7, 4 1. 9 5 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 7 5, 1 1 8. 2 7 5, 2 7 4. 4 1 4, 2. 8 5 2, 1 2 8. 0 4 2] : [ 4 5 0 2 3 6 0 9. 7 7 3, - 6. 2 5 1] 1 1 : [ 1. 2 9 6, 4 3. 7 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 7 5 3, 1 1 8. 1 2 7, 2 7 3. 2 2 6, 2. 9 1 7, 1 2 6. 1 5 8] : [ 4 7 5 4 2 5 9 4. 0 9 1, - 6. 0 1 7] 1 2 : [ 1. 5 2 3, 4 4. 7 8 5, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 5 3 4, 1 1 8. 0 8 7, 2 7 5. 8 3 8, 2. 9 9 7, 1 2 6. 7 0 4] : [ 2 7 4 6 1 2 4 8. 1 3 5, - 9. 2 8 8] 1 3 : [ 2. 0, 4 3. 8 3 2, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 6 1 3, 1 1 8. 7 6 9, 2 5 4. 4 1 6, 3. 0, 1 3 1. 3 6 6] : [ 1 0 1 3 0 1 2 7. 3 1 3, - 1 8. 3 8] 1 4 : [ 1. 3 6 7, 4 2. 1 1 9, 0. 0 0 1, 2. 0, 1 1 9. 7 9 2, 2 7 4. 5 1 2, 3. 0, 1 2 7. 1 5 5] : [ 3 7 8 3 3 6 5 4. 9 9 1, - 6. 9 0 5] 1 5 : [ 1. 6 8 7, 4 3. 9 7 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 7 6, 1 1 6. 3 6 9, 2 6 6. 8 9 4, 2. 9 1 7, 1 3 2. 4 2 1] : [ 1 9 1 4 3 0 1 9. 2 7 5, - 1 2. 7 0 5] 1 6 : [ 1. 3 2 7, 4 5. 0 8 2, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 7 5, 1 1 8. 3 5 9, 2 7 6. 4 8 9, 3. 0, 1 2 8. 5 3 1] : [ 4 9 3 3 8 7 6 7. 4 9 5, - 5. 6 1 6] 1 7 : [ 1. 3 1 2, 4 4. 9 4 7, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5, 1 1 6. 9 5 9, 2 5 6. 9 7 7, 3. 0, 1 2 6. 8 6 6] : [ 4 3 0 8 2 0 0 1. 4 4 6, - 6. 8 0 9] 1 8 : [ 1. 0 1 5, 4 6. 1 1 9, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 3 5, 1 1 7. 1 3 5, 2 5 3. 8 6 4, 3. 0, 1 2 5. 6 5 2] : [ 8 6 6 4 4 5 5 7. 7 2 7, - 3. 5 8 1] 1 9 : [ 1. 4 5 9, 4 3. 0 9 9, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 0 1 4, 1 1 2. 1 8 7, 2 5 0. 4 6 7, 2. 9 0 9, 1 3 2. 3 3 1] : [ 3 0 2 0 0 9 8 2. 9 1 4, - 9. 2 2] 2 0 : [ 1. 4 7 2, 4 3. 2 4 3, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 7 1, 1 1 9. 7 2 2, 2 7 4. 5 3 6, 3. 0, 1 3 5. 1 1 5] : [ 3 0 2 6 1 4 0 7. 3 8, - 8. 3 5 5] 2 1 : [ 0. 9 7 7, 4 3. 2 4, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 1 9 3, 1 1 5. 4 7 5, 2 6 2. 0 8 4, 2. 8 7 9, 1 3 1. 7 7] : [ 9 5 5 5 1 0 3 5. 9 3 5, - 3. 2 4 6] 2 2 : [ 1. 1 7 2, 4 2. 9 5 4, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 4 9 8, 1 1 5. 7 2 9, 2 7 5. 3 2 1, 3. 0, 1 3 2. 1 9 9] : [ 6 2 8 3 4 2 7 7. 2 3 8, - 4. 3 7 1] 2 3 : [ 1. 7 3 8, 4 3. 7 1, 0. 0 0 1, 1. 3 2, 1 1 8. 5 3 2, 2 4 5. 5 8, 2. 8 8 7, 1 3 3. 8 3 4] : [ 1 6 1 3 1 2 9 9. 3 8 1, - 1 5. 0 8 6] 2 4 : [ 1. 3 8 2, 4 3. 1 8 2, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5, 1 1 9. 6 6 5, 2 6 7. 8 7, 3. 0, 1 2 7. 2 1 3] : [ 3 6 3 7 7 2 6 3. 9 3 2, - 7. 3 8 1] 2 5 : [ 0. 9 1 5, 4 3. 6 8 5, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5 7 1, 1 0 7. 8 8 6, 2 6 8. 1 3 8, 2. 9 5 6, 1 2 6. 8 5 3] : [ 1 0 4 4 6 1 4 2 7. 7 7 5, - 3. 0 6 3] 2 6 : [ 1. 2 8, 4 4. 1 8 1, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5 2 1, 1 1 9. 6 3 6, 2 7 7. 7 5 2, 3. 0, 1 3 0. 4 1 3] : [ 5 4 7 8 8 6 0 8. 7 4 3, - 4. 9 1] 2 7 : [ 1. 1 1 6, 4 3. 7 0 3, 0. 0 0 1, 0. 5, 1 1 4. 2 3 7, 2 6 4. 0 8 2, 2. 9 6 7, 1 2 7. 2 4 7] : [ 6 7 7 0 7 0 8 5. 5 4 5, - 4. 2 5 2]

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A697

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7 9. 5. 7. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt F 1 1 M A A 8 7 0 2 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 7 0 3- 1 8) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A698

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 2

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

F11 M A A8702

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

10120000000

st art _ d at e

200701010000

e n d _ d at e

201312310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 7. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A699

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

list _s e e ds

[ 1. 3, 7 0. 0, 0. 0 1, 0. 9 5, 1 0 0. 0, 3 0 0. 0, 2. 5, 5 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 6 5, 3 5. 0, 0. 0 0 5, 0. 4, 5 0. 0, 1 5 0. 0, 1. 2, 2 5. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 2. 5, 2 5 0. 0, 0. 0 3, 2. 8, 2 5 0. 0, 5 0 0. 0, 5. 0, 1 5 0. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 1. 3), (' Ki', 7 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 0. 9 5), (' g 0', 1 0 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 0 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 2. 5), (' P _ m a x', 5 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 7 A bs Err: 1 1 9 2 6 0 4 1 2 3. 4 5 K G E: 0. 7 3 5 N S _r el: 0. 5 6 4 N S: 0. 5 5 8 R M S E: 1 4 0 1 9 2 6 9 7 0. 7 3 N S _l o g: 0. 7 0 2

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 1 3: 4 1: 0 5. 8 8 4 0 0 0 9. 5. 7. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 1. 4 0 2), (' Ki', 1 1 3. 6 8 9), (' K g', 0. 0 1), (' Kss', 2. 8), (' g 0', 1 5 0. 0 4 8), (' g _ m a x', 2 6 3. 2 7 2), (' K _r u n', 2. 7 8 7), (' P _ m a x', 7 4. 7 1 3)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: 0. 0 0 1 A bs Err: 3 3 2 5 8 6 4 4 6. 1 4 4 K G E: 0. 7 1 7 N S _r el: 0. 7 2 2 N S: 0. 4 2 7 R M S E: 4 3 2 1 2 1 6 1 5. 4 4 8 N S _l o g: 0. 7 4 7

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A700

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A701

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A702

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A703

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A704

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 7. 4. 3 0 1 2 3

: : : :

Fi n al ar c hi v e

[ 1. 4 0 2, [ 1. 2 9 3, [ 1. 3 7 9, [ 1. 3 0 8,

Fi n al r e p ort

1 1 3. 6 8 9, 0. 0 1, 2. 8, 1 5 0. 0 4 8, 2 6 3. 2 7 2, 2. 7 8 7, 7 4. 7 1 3] : 1 0 1. 2 9 8, 0. 0 0 9, 1. 0 7 4, 1 2 4. 4 0 7, 2 0 7. 6 1 1, 3. 4 3 8, 7 4. 1 9 3] : 1 0 6. 9 0 2, 0. 0 1, 1. 1 0 4, 1 3 1. 4 7 9, 2 2 6. 6 2 1, 3. 5 0 4, 7 4. 0 7] : 1 0 1. 0, 0. 0 0 9, 0. 8 5 4, 1 2 6. 2 0 2, 2 1 1. 3 1 9, 4. 0 7 9, 7 5. 6 0 4] :

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

[ 3 3 2 5 8 6 4 4 6. 1 4 4, [ 3 3 5 7 7 3 7 0 3. 6 2 4, [ 3 8 5 2 0 4 6 6 6. 3 7 6, [ 3 3 6 3 2 3 1 5 8. 8 3 9,

0. 7 4 7] 0. 7 4 7] 0. 7 5 1] 0. 7 4 9]

A705

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8 9. 5. 8. 1

R e p ort o n si m ul ati o n of c at c h m e nt W 1 1 M A A P R O F 1 2 5 8 6 ( 2 0 1 7- 0 2- 0 7 0 6- 3 8) I n p ut d at a

Fi g ur e 1: H y et o gr a m of o bs er v e d dis c h ar g e a n d o bs er v e d n et r ai n

9. 5. 8. 2 S etti n g

Fi n al r e p ort

Si m ul ati o n s etti n g s V al u e

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A706

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

m o d el _str u ct ur e

W E T S P A cl assi c. p ar a ms et 1

s u b c at c h m e nt _ n a m e

W11 M A AP R OF1 25 86

s u b c at c h m e nt _ ar e a

12586000000

st art _ d at e

200801010000

e n d _ d at e

201212310000

fr e q u e n c y

86400

w ar m u p

365

9. 5. 8. 3

O pti miz ati o n s etti n g s

S etti n g

V al u e

p o p ul _siz e

m a x _ g e n er ati o ns

list _ v ar

[' K e p', ' Ki', ' K g', ' Kss', ' g 0', ' g _ m a x', ' K _r u n', ' P _ m a x']

list _s e e ds

[ 0. 7, 5 0. 0, 0. 0 8, 0. 7 5, 2 9 0. 0, 3 5 0. 0, 2. 7, 5 0. 0]

l o w _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 6 3, 4 5. 0, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 6 7 5, 2 6 1. 0, 3 1 5. 0, 2. 4 3, 4 5. 0]

hi g h _ b o u n ds

[ 0. 7 7, 5 5. 0, 0. 0 8 8, 0. 8 2 5, 3 1 9. 0, 3 8 5. 0, 2. 9 7, 5 5. 0]

OF1

A bs Err

OF2

N S _l o g

N o n- o pti miz e d v ari a bl es: [] I niti al i n di vi d u al:[(' K e p', 0. 7), (' Ki', 5 0. 0), (' K g', 0. 0 8), (' Kss', 0. 7 5), (' g 0', 2 9 0. 0), (' g _ m a x', 3 5 0. 0), (' K _r u n', 2. 7), (' P _ m a x', 5 0. 0)] I niti al fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 2 3 A bs Err: 6 9 8 1 2 3 5 4 5. 0 5 K G E: 0. 6 4 8 N S _r el: 0. 2 6 1 N S: 0. 6 6 6 R M S E: 8 2 3 4 8 5 2 0 1. 0 3 N S _l o g: 0. 6 2 4

C o m p ut ati o n ti m e: 2 0: 3 6: 1 4. 5 4 0 0 0 0

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A707

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 4

R es ults

B est i n di vi d u al ( e u cli di a n): [(' K e p', 0. 6 9), (' Ki', 4 6. 6 4 7), (' K g', 0. 0 7 2), (' Kss', 0. 6 7 5), (' g 0', 2 8 3. 1 1), (' g _ m a x', 3 4 4. 6 9 9), (' K _r u n', 2. 7 7), (' P _ m a x', 5 3. 7 7 1)] Fit n es s:       

R el Err: - 0. 0 1 6 A bs Err: 6 0 2 7 8 6 6 9 9. 0 2 8 K G E: 0. 6 3 8 N S _r el: 0. 2 4 3 N S: 0. 6 6 7 R M S E: 7 4 4 6 6 8 9 0 9. 5 0 6 N S _l o g: 0. 6 2 2

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A708

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 3: All e v al u at e d c a n di d at es (i n di vi d u al s) a n d fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi g ur e 4: Fi n al p o p ul ati o n of s ol uti o ns ( P ar et o fr o nt)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A709

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 4. 1 I niti al

Fi g ur e 5: T ot al fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 6: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h i niti al p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A710

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 4. 2

O pti m u m ( e u cli di a n)

Fi g ur e 7: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi g ur e 8: C u m ul at e d fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A711

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi g ur e 9: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi g ur e 1 0: T ot al fl o w wit h o pti m u m p ar a m et ers ( d et ail)

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A712

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

9. 5. 8. 4. 3

Fi n al ar c hi v e

0 : [ 0. 6 7 1, 4 5. 5 5 6, 0. 0 7 8, 0. 7 0 9, 2 6 9. 9 0 2, 3 3 2. 3 3 9, 2. 6 1, 5 0. 8 5 6] : [ 5 7 9 4 6 7 1 9 5. 9 0 3, 1 : [ 0. 7 7, 4 9. 8 6, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 7 6 5, 2 9 6. 7 4 5, 3 7 1. 9 9 5, 2. 5 2 6, 4 9. 3 4 2] : [ 1 5 1 5 6 0 2 9 3 0. 7 3 8, 2 : [ 0. 7 1 2, 4 7. 4 3, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 1 3, 2 9 8. 8 0 3, 3 4 7. 2 9 5, 2. 9 7, 4 7. 8 3 2] : [ 7 6 0 5 7 1 1 5 8. 4 7 3, 3 : [ 0. 7 7, 4 7. 7 2 6, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 6 7 5, 2 9 6. 7 4 5, 3 7 1. 9 9 5, 2. 4 3, 4 9. 3 4 2] : [ 1 5 2 6 5 1 5 2 3 1. 6 9 9, 4 : [ 0. 7 4 1, 4 6. 9 7 7, 0. 0 7 5, 0. 8 1 2, 2 9 4. 4 2 8, 3 5 0. 3 6 1, 2. 9 7, 4 5. 0] : [ 1 0 7 5 6 6 9 4 7 9. 6 7 2, 5 : [ 0. 7 3 1, 4 7. 5 7 7, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 6 7 5, 2 9 7. 2 0 1, 3 6 5. 6 4 2, 2. 8 7 3, 4 9. 1 0 2] : [ 9 6 3 3 9 0 2 2 0. 7 6 2, 6 : [ 0. 7 3 5, 5 1. 1 0 7, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 1 3, 3 0 0. 3 5, 3 6 4. 0 9, 2. 4 5 3, 4 7. 3 2 1] : [ 1 1 0 7 4 1 6 4 8 7. 1 1 9, 7 : [ 0. 7 6 2, 4 5. 0, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 7 7 5, 3 0 2. 1 8 9, 3 4 8. 2 8 8, 2. 4 3 6, 4 5. 6 7] : [ 1 4 3 2 5 6 9 9 3 0. 8 0 7, 8 : [ 0. 7 6 1, 4 5. 1 6 8, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 7 6 8, 3 0 3. 4 4 8, 3 4 8. 1 7 5, 2. 8 4 7, 4 6. 6 6 9] : [ 1 3 2 5 5 9 9 2 7 6. 8 3 3, 9 : [ 0. 7 5 5, 5 2. 3 7 9, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 1 2, 3 0 1. 8 3 1, 3 6 7. 5 5 5, 2. 9 7, 4 9. 9 9 3] : [ 1 2 5 7 9 3 2 3 5 6. 8 9 5, 1 0 : [ 0. 7 7, 4 7. 9 6 5, 0. 0 7 3, 0. 6 9 1, 2 8 3. 0 2 4, 3 4 8. 6 7, 2. 5 4 9, 5 4. 6 3 3] : [ 1 5 0 5 7 0 6 0 2 3. 1 2 5, 1 1 : [ 0. 7 4 4, 5 2. 9 7 6, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 2 5, 3 0 0. 8 1 2, 3 6 6. 3 8 1, 2. 5 0 2, 4 9. 8 1 8] : [ 1 2 1 9 5 6 1 8 3 6. 2 5 3, 1 2 : [ 0. 7 2 3, 4 7. 5 5 4, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 1 3, 3 0 0. 4 3 4, 3 6 3. 5 9 6, 2. 9 7, 4 7. 5 0 7] : [ 8 6 4 6 6 4 9 4 9. 7 9 3, 1 3 : [ 0. 7 6 9, 4 7. 2 7 6, 0. 0 7 4, 0. 7 0 1, 2 8 5. 5 2 8, 3 4 9. 4 5 4, 2. 8 8 5, 5 2. 7 8 6] : [ 1 4 2 1 9 9 4 9 5 5. 2 2 4, 1 4 : [ 0. 7 3 4, 4 9. 8 8 2, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 2 5, 2 9 8. 4 4 7, 3 6 4. 4 3 2, 2. 7 3, 4 9. 2 0 6] : [ 1 0 3 7 4 0 7 0 1 7. 0 4 7, 1 5 : [ 0. 6 9, 4 6. 6 4 7, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 6 7 5, 2 8 3. 1 1, 3 4 4. 6 9 9, 2. 7 7, 5 3. 7 7 1] : [ 6 0 2 7 8 6 6 9 9. 0 2 8, 1 6 : [ 0. 7 1 6, 4 8. 0 9 2, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 2 5, 2 8 6. 2 1 5, 3 5 4. 0 3 3, 2. 8 6 6, 5 3. 3 9] : [ 8 1 2 9 5 2 3 4 0. 9 8, 1 7 : [ 0. 7 2 9, 4 8. 6 4 2, 0. 0 7 3, 0. 6 7 5, 2 9 2. 2 5 8, 3 5 1. 0 9, 2. 8 4 3, 4 7. 1 7 5] : [ 9 6 2 0 5 1 7 6 1. 8 4 4, 1 8 : [ 0. 7 6 2, 4 7. 6 8 9, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 6 7 5, 2 9 7. 9 5 6, 3 7 3. 7 9 4, 2. 7 1 6, 4 9. 2 8 2] : [ 1 3 6 1 7 8 1 6 1 6. 7 2 7, 1 9 : [ 0. 7 5 5, 4 9. 3 3 6, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 1 3, 2 9 8. 4 2 3, 3 6 5. 4 8 3, 2. 6 7 4, 4 9. 2 5 2] : [ 1 2 9 2 8 4 5 3 9 5. 2 3 9, 2 0 : [ 0. 6 9 8, 4 7. 2 6, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 7 9 8, 2 8 9. 6 2 5, 3 5 0. 0 1 2, 2. 8 8 9, 5 1. 8 5 7] : [ 6 4 6 8 0 9 0 6 0. 2 3 4, 2 1 : [ 0. 7 4 1, 4 5. 1 8 3, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 7 0 3, 2 9 0. 4 3 3, 3 6 3. 8 6 8, 2. 6 3, 4 8. 4 3 7] : [ 1 1 1 6 0 3 9 4 0 4. 3 7 8, 2 2 : [ 0. 7 2 4, 4 8. 5 8 7, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 2 5, 2 8 8. 3 5 2, 3 6 9. 9 5, 2. 8 7 1, 5 2. 1 2 8] : [ 8 8 5 0 9 8 8 7 1. 2 4 2, 2 3 : [ 0. 7 0 4, 4 6. 9 5, 0. 0 7 4, 0. 8 2 5, 2 7 7. 3 1 1, 3 4 2. 2 9, 2. 6 1 1, 5 1. 3 9 2] : [ 7 3 7 0 3 5 3 1 6. 2 9 2, 2 4 : [ 0. 7 4 8, 4 8. 5 3 9, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 0 5, 2 9 7. 9 2 4, 3 7 4. 4 8 7, 2. 9 7, 4 8. 9 7 2] : [ 1 1 5 3 1 3 0 1 9 5. 6 9, 2 5 : [ 0. 7 5 4, 4 8. 2 7 9, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 2 5, 2 9 8. 7 2 1, 3 5 1. 6 3 6, 2. 9 6 8, 4 9. 2 9 4] : [ 1 2 2 8 5 2 2 2 8 5. 5 2 5, 2 6 : [ 0. 7 7, 4 8. 9 4 8, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 1 3, 2 9 8. 7 8 8, 3 6 4. 1 2 8, 2. 9 2 3, 4 8. 7 8 9] : [ 1 4 3 6 0 9 5 3 6 9. 3 8 6, 2 7 : [ 0. 7 7, 4 9. 5 8 8, 0. 0 7 3, 0. 7 3 5, 2 9 3. 1 6 9, 3 6 2. 4 6 9, 2. 7 8 4, 4 8. 4 6 1] : [ 1 4 6 6 7 9 3 0 1 5. 2 9 4, 2 8 : [ 0. 7 4 7, 4 9. 1 7 3, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 2 1, 2 9 0. 7 8 7, 3 5 3. 2 0 6, 2. 8 0 4, 5 0. 0 1 3] : [ 1 1 7 8 1 4 8 6 2 7. 9 8 2, 2 9 : [ 0. 7 2 4, 4 6. 0 9 4, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 6 7 8, 2 9 2. 7 9 4, 3 6 6. 5 0 6, 2. 6 1 4, 4 8. 5 8 5] : [ 9 2 1 6 4 4 3 5 7. 5 8, 3 0 : [ 0. 7 1 6, 4 8. 0 9 2, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 2 5, 2 8 6. 2 1 5, 3 5 3. 5 3 1, 2. 8 6 6, 5 3. 3 9] : [ 8 1 3 1 4 2 3 6 0. 9 8 2, 3 1 : [ 0. 7 7, 4 8. 7 8 4, 0. 0 7 3, 0. 6 7 5, 2 9 7. 1 1 1, 3 4 2. 8 9 7, 2. 6 2 3, 4 9. 9 5 9] : [ 1 5 0 2 4 2 8 8 2 8. 6 2, 3 2 : [ 0. 7 1 1, 4 7. 1 9 4, 0. 0 7 2, 0. 8 2 5, 2 9 1. 0 6 4, 3 5 4. 6 9 9, 2. 7 2 1, 5 1. 7 5 8] : [ 7 8 1 3 0 2 1 8 6. 2 7 3,

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

0. 6 0 7] 0. 6 6 7] 0. 6 3 5] 0. 6 6 8] 0. 6 4 9] 0. 6 4 6] 0. 6 5] 0. 6 6 5] 0. 6 6 2] 0. 6 5 7] 0. 6 6 6] 0. 6 5 5] 0. 6 4 1] 0. 6 6 3] 0. 6 4 8] 0. 6 2 2] 0. 6 3 8] 0. 6 4 4] 0. 6 6 2] 0. 6 5 9] 0. 6 2 7] 0. 6 5 3] 0. 6 4 2] 0. 6 3 1] 0. 6 5 4] 0. 6 5 7] 0. 6 6 5] 0. 6 6 5] 0. 6 5 5] 0. 6 4 4] 0. 6 3 8] 0. 6 6 6] 0. 6 3 6]

A713

M o d elli n g w at er a v ail a bilit y a n d w at er all o c ati o n str at e gi e s i n t h e S c h el dt b a si n S u b r e p ort 4- 5 – A n al y s e s of h y dr ol o gi c al m o d el s f or cli m at e c h a n g e m o d elli n g – W E T S P A

Fi n al r e p ort

W L 2 0 2 1 R 0 0 _ 1 6 2 _ 4- 5

A714

D E P A R T E M E N T M O BI LI T EI T & O P E N B A R E W E R K E N W at er b o u w k u n di g L a b or at ori u m B er c h e ml ei 11 5, 21 4 0 A nt w er p e n T + 3 2 ( 0) 3 2 2 4 6 0 3 5 F + 3 2 ( 0) 3 2 2 4 6 0 3 6 w at er b o u w k u n di gl a b o @ vl a a n d er e n. b e w w w. w a t e r b o u w k u n di gl a b o r a t o ri u m. b e