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00_162_4-3 FHR reports

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Maroy, E.; Velez, C.; Pereira, F.; Nossent, J.; Mostaert, F.

Cover figure © The Government of Flanders, Department of Mobility and Public Works, Flanders Hydraulics Research Legal notice Flanders Hydraulics Research is of the opinion that the information and positions in this report are substantiated by the available data and knowledge at the time of writing. The positions taken in this report are those of Flanders Hydraulics Research and do not reflect necessarily the opinion of the Government of Flanders or any of its institutions. Flanders Hydraulics Research nor any person or company acting on behalf of Flanders Hydraulics Research is responsible for any loss or damage arising from the use of the information in this report. Copyright and citation © The Government of Flanders, Department of Mobility and Public Works, Flanders Hydraulics Research 2021 D/2021/3241/134 This publication should be cited as follows: Maroy, E.; Velez, C.; Pereira, F.; Nossent, J.; Mostaert, F. (2021. Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin: Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling. Version 2.0. FHR Reports, 00_162_4-3. Flanders Hydraulics Research: Antwerp, Belgium. Reproduction of and reference to this publication is authorised provided the source is acknowledged correctly. Document identification Customer: Keywords (3-5): Knowledge domains:

Flanders Hydraulics Research Ref.: WL2021R00_162_4-3 Hydrology, Scheldt, calibration, NAM Water management > Hydrology > Conceptual Models > Numerical modelling

Text (p.): Confidentiality:

86 ‫ ܈‬No

Author(s):

Maroy, E.; Velez, C.;

Appendices (p.): ‫ ܈‬Available online

293

Control Name Reviser(s):

Project leader:

Nossent, J.

Pereira, F.

Signature

Getekend door:Jiri Nossent (Signature) Getekend op:2021-07-08 10:18:43 +02:0 Reden:Ik keur dit document goed

Getekend door:Fernando Pereira (Signat Getekend op:2021-07-02 11:15:19 +02:0 Reden:Ik keur dit document goed

Approval Head of Division:

F-WL-PP10-2 Version 7 Valid as from 3/01/2017

Mostaert, F.

Getekend door:Frank Mostaert (Signatur Getekend op:2021-07-07 16:25:31 +02:0 Reden:Ik keur dit document goed

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Abstract The water balance model of the Scheldt and Meuse basins will be used in order to perform low flow forecasts and calculate climate change scenarios. Within the current subtask is investigated which is the most appropriate hydrological model for the sub catchments of the water balance model of the Scheldt basin in order to meet this prerequisite. This sub report describes the calibration and evaluation of the PDM model, a lumped conceptual model for continuous rainfall-runoff simulation (Moore, 2007) developed by the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. The optimization during calibration is performed based on an automatic procedure, followed by a visual control. During the optimization routine the parameter sets are selected based on 2 criteria: (1) absolute error on cumulated total flow at each time step, and (2) logarithmic Nash-Sutcliff efficiency. The first criterion aims to model the global flow pattern, the latter focuses mainly on the low flows. Overall, the performance of the calibrated PDM models, is as good if not better compared to the other lumped rainfall-runoff models already calibrated: NAM. The summarized results for each of the gauged sub catchments within the study area, allow the user to get insight in the performance of the PDM model for each of the involved sub catchments. Based on this information and the evaluation of the NAM, VHM and WETSPA models, the user can make a well-grounded decision on which model to use for the considered objective.

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F-WL-PP10-2 Version 7 Valid as from 3/01/2017

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................................ III Contents ............................................................................................................................................................ V List of tables.................................................................................................................................................... XIV List of figures ................................................................................................................................................... XV 1

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1

Objectives .......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.2

Structure of the report ...................................................................................................................... 1

Catchment delineation .............................................................................................................................. 2 2.1

General .............................................................................................................................................. 2

2.2

Gauged catchments ........................................................................................................................... 4

2.3

Ungauged catchments ....................................................................................................................... 5

Input data preprocessing........................................................................................................................... 6 3.1

Thiessen polygon method ................................................................................................................. 6

3.2

Precipitation ...................................................................................................................................... 6

3.3

Evapotranspiration ............................................................................................................................ 7

Rainfall-runoff modelling methodology .................................................................................................... 8 4.1

Structure of the PDM hydrological model......................................................................................... 8

4.2

PDM parameters description ............................................................................................................ 9

Calibration strategy ................................................................................................................................. 10 5.1

Optimization algorithm ................................................................................................................... 10

5.2

Objective function ........................................................................................................................... 10

5.3

Implementation in Python............................................................................................................... 12

PDM model calibration ............................................................................................................................ 14 6.1

Model configuration ........................................................................................................................ 14

6.2

Model evaluation............................................................................................................................. 14

6.3

IJzer basin ........................................................................................................................................ 15

6.3.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 15

6.3.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 16

6.4

Brugse Polders ................................................................................................................................. 23

6.4.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 23

6.4.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 24

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

6.5

6.5.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 29

6.5.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 30

6.6

Benedenschelde .............................................................................................................................. 32

6.6.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 32

6.6.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 33

6.7

Leie .................................................................................................................................................. 38

6.7.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 38

6.7.2

Model performances ............................................................................................................... 39

6.8

Bovenschelde................................................................................................................................... 44

6.8.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 44

6.8.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 44

6.9

Denderbekken ................................................................................................................................. 50

6.9.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 50

6.9.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 50

6.10

Dijle and Zenne ................................................................................................................................ 56

6.10.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 56

6.10.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 57

6.11

Demerbekken .................................................................................................................................. 64

6.11.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 64

6.11.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 64

6.12

Netebekken ..................................................................................................................................... 71

6.12.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 71

6.12.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 72

6.13

Gentse Kanalen................................................................................................................................ 29

Maasbekken .................................................................................................................................... 78

6.13.1

Context .................................................................................................................................... 78

6.13.2

Model performance................................................................................................................. 79

Summary.................................................................................................................................................. 84 7.1

Graphical overview of the model performance .............................................................................. 84

Conclusions and recommendations ........................................................................................................ 85

References ............................................................................................................................................... 86

Annexe 1

List of optimized parameters for gauged catchments................................................................ A1

Annexe 2

List of transferred parameters for ungauged catchments ......................................................... A4

Annexe 3

Ijzer .............................................................................................................................................. A7

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "F01IJZ468000" (IJZER).......... A7

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Input data ................................................................................................................................................ A7 Model summary....................................................................................................................................... A8 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................... A9 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01HAN488180" (IJZER) .... A13 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A13 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A14 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A15 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01IEP495080" (IJZER) ...... A18 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A18 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A19 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A20 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01KEM492060" (IJZER) .... A24 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A24 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A25 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A26 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01MAR496120" (IJZER) ... A29 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A29 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A30 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A31 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01POP491030" (IJZER) .... A34 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A34 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A35 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A36 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01SSV499140 " (IJZER) .... A40 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A40 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A41 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A42 Annexe 4

Brugse Polders ........................................................................................................................... A45

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V02EDE442120" (BRUGSE POLDERS) .................................................................................................................................... A45 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A45 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A46 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A47 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V02HER426010" (BRUGSE POLDERS) .................................................................................................................................... A50 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A50

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A51 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A52 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V02KER422030" (BRUGSE POLDERS) .................................................................................................................................... A55 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A55 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A56 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A57 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V02RIV425020" (BRUGSE POLDERS) .................................................................................................................................... A61 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A61 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A62 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A63 Annexe 5

Gentse Kanalen .......................................................................................................................... A66

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V03POE446000" (GENTSE KANALEN) ................................................................................................................................... A66 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A66 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A67 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A68 Annexe 6

Benedenschelde ........................................................................................................................ A72

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V04MOL036110" (BENEDENSCHELDE)................................................................................................................................... A72 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A72 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A73 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A74 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT " V04MOM037100" (BENEDENSCHELDE)................................................................................................................................... A77 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A77 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A78 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A79 Annexe 7

Leie............................................................................................................................................. A82

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT " F05LEI386999" (LEIEBEKKEN) ................................................................................................................................................................... A82 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A82 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A83 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A84 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V05HEU403210" (LEIEBEKKEN) ................................................................................................................................................................... A87 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A87 VIII

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A88 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A89 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V05MAN401230" (LEIEBEKKEN) ................................................................................................................................................................... A92 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A92 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A93 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A94 Annexe 8

Bovenschelde............................................................................................................................. A97

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "F06BOS325001" (BOVENSCHELDE)....................................................................................................................................... A97 Input data .............................................................................................................................................. A97 Model summary..................................................................................................................................... A98 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ............................................................. A99 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V06MAA347160 " (BOVENSCHELDE)..................................................................................................................................... A102 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A102 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A103 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A104 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V06ZWA342190" (BOVENSCHELDE)..................................................................................................................................... A107 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A107 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A108 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A109 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W06RHOL54100" (BOVENSCHELDE)..................................................................................................................................... A112 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A112 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A113 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A114 Annexe 9

Dender ..................................................................................................................................... A117

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V07BEL285070" (DENDERBEKKEN) .................................................................................................................................... A117 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A117 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A118 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A119 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V07MAR289015" (DENDERBEKKEN) .................................................................................................................................... A122 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A122 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A123 Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A124 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V07MOE282100" (DENDERBEKKEN) .................................................................................................................................... A127 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A127 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A128 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A129 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V07MOG288020" (DENDERBEKKEN) .................................................................................................................................... A133 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A133 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A134 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A135 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W07DENLES004" (DENDERBEKKEN) .................................................................................................................................... A139 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A139 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A140 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A141 Annexe 10 Dijle an Zenne .......................................................................................................................... A145 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V08BAR111370" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) ............................................................................................................................. A145 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A145 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A146 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A147 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V08DIJ093400" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) ............................................................................................................................. A150 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A150 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A151 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A152 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V08ZUU233100" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) ............................................................................................................................. A155 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A155 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A156 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A157 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W08SAMRON000" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) ............................................................................................................................. A160 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A160 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A161 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A162

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W08SENRON010" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) ............................................................................................................................. A166 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A166 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A167 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A168 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W08SENTUB030" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) ............................................................................................................................. A171 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A171 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A172 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A173 Annexe 11 Demer ...................................................................................................................................... A176 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09DEM136000" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A176 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A176 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A177 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A178 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT " V09GET152080" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A182 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A182 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A183 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A184 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT " V09HER163010" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A187 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A187 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A188 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A189 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09HUL147150" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A192 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A192 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A193 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A194 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09LOS143300" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A197 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A197 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A198 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A199 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09MAN161040" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A203

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A203 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A204 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A205 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09MOT144270" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A209 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A209 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A210 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A211 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09VEL145100" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A215 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A215 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A216 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A217 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09WIN141310" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A220 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A220 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A221 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A222 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09ZWA148120" (DEMERBEKKEN) ...................................................................................................................................... A225 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A225 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A226 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A227 Annexe 12 Nete ......................................................................................................................................... A231 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10GLA086020" (NETE)... A231 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A231 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A232 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A233 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10GNE076999" (NETE) .. A237 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A237 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A238 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A239 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10KNE052000" (NETE)... A242 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A242 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A243 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A244 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10MOP062140" (NETE) . A247

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A247 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A248 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A249 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10WIM082050" (NETE) . A252 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A252 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A253 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A254 Annexe 13 Meuse ...................................................................................................................................... A258 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "F11MAA8702" (MEUSE) .. A258 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A258 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A259 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A260 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11BER551010" (MEUSE) ................................................................................................................................................................. A263 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A263 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A264 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A265 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11HOY5990" (MEUSE).. A269 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A269 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A270 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A271 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11MEH5820" (MEUSE) . A274 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A274 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A275 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A276 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11OUR5805" (MEUSE) . A279 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A279 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A280 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A281 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11SAM7319" (MEUSE) . A284 Input data ............................................................................................................................................ A284 Model summary................................................................................................................................... A285 Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters ........................................................... A286 Annexe 14 Geographical overview calibration .......................................................................................... A290 Annexe 15 Geographical overview validation ........................................................................................... A292

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

List of tables Table 1 – List of gauging stations on the Scheldt and its tributaries for calibration of hydrological models ... 4 Table 2 – Catchments calibrated jointly based on one gauging station............................................................ 5 Table 3 – Number of rain gauges per hydrographic basin ................................................................................ 6 Table 4 – Initial states and flow ....................................................................................................................... 13 Table 5 – PDM parameters and optimization boundaries .............................................................................. 13 Table 6 – Overview of calibration results for gauged subcatchments in the IJzer basin ................................ 17 Table 7 – Overview of validation results for gauged subcatchments in the IJzer basin.................................. 17 Table 8 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Brugse Polders ............................. 24 Table 9 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Brugse Polders ............................... 24 Table 10 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Gentse Kanalen .......................... 30 Table 11 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Gentse Kanalen ........................... 30 Table 12 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Benedenschelde basin ............... 33 Table 13 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Benedenschelde basin................. 33 Table 14 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Leie basin ................................... 39 Table 15 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Leie basin ..................................... 39 Table 16 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Bovenschelde basin.................... 45 Table 17 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Bovenschelde basin ..................... 45 Table 18 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Dender basin .............................. 51 Table 19 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Dender basin ............................... 51 Table 20 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Dijle and Zenne basins ............... 58 Table 21 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Dijle and Zenne basins................. 58 Table 22 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Demer basin ............................... 66 Table 23 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Demer basin ................................ 66 Table 24 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Nete basin ................................. 73 Table 25 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Nete basin ................................... 73 Table 26 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Meuse basin ............................... 79 Table 27 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Meuse basin ................................ 79

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

List of figures Figure 1 – Map of gauged and ungauged catchments of the Scheldt basin, Meuse, the Brugse polders and the IJzer .................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2 – The structure of the PDM rainfall-runoff model .............................................................................. 8 Figure 3 – All evaluated candidates (individuals) and final population of solutions (Pareto front) ................ 11 Figure 4 – Rescaled final population of solutions (Pareto front) .................................................................... 12 Figure 5 – Catchments and flow metering station on the IJzer basin ............................................................. 15 Figure 6 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Handzamevaart; Kortemark (2001-2013) .................................................................................... 18 Figure 7 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Handzamevaart; Kortemark (2001-2013) ........................................................................ 18 Figure 8 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Handzamevaart; Kortemark .......................................... 19 Figure 9 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote(1996-2008) ................................................................................................. 20 Figure 10 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote (calibration period)......................................................................... 20 Figure 11 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote ............................................ 21 Figure 12 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote ............................................ 21 Figure 13 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote ............................................ 22 Figure 14 – Subcatchments and measurement points in the catchment of the Brugse Polders ................... 23 Figure 15 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 - Maldegem(2001-2013)................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 16 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 - Maldegem (2001-2013).................................................................................................... 25 Figure 17 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 – Maldegem .......................................................... 26 Figure 18 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp(calibration period) .......................................................................... 27 Figure 19 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp (calibration period) ............................................................. 27 Figure 20 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp ............................... 28 Figure 21 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Gentse Kanalen catchment ............................ 29

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Figure 22 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele(calibration period)........................................................................................ 31 Figure 23 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele (calibration period)........................................................................... 31 Figure 24 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Benedenschelde catchment .......................... 32 Figure 25 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen(2001-2013).......................................................................... 34 Figure 26 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen (2001-2013) ......................................................................... 34 Figure 27 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen............................. 35 Figure 28 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele(calibration period)............................................................................... 36 Figure 29 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele (calibration period) ................................................................. 36 Figure 30 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele................................... 37 Figure 31 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Leie catchment............................................... 38 Figure 32 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment F05LEI386001, station 38680122 – Leie, Menen(2001-2013) ............................................................................................................. 40 Figure 33 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment F05LEI386001, station 38680122 – Leie, Menen(2001-2013) ................................................................................................. 40 Figure 34 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F05LEI386001, station 38680122 – Leie, Menen(2001-2013)...................................... 41 Figure 35 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule(calibration period) .......................................................................................... 42 Figure 36 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule (calibration period) ............................................................................. 42 Figure 37 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule............................................... 43 Figure 38 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Bovenschelde catchment ............................... 44 Figure 39 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (2000-2012) ................................................................................................ 46 Figure 40 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (2000-2012) .................................................................................... 46 Figure 41 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (calibration period) ........................................................................ 47 Figure 42 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V06MAA347160, station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove (2001-2013) ................................................................................. 48 Figure 43 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V06MAA347160, station station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove (2001-2013)..................................................................... 48

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Figure 44 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V06MAA347160, station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove ...................................... 49 Figure 45 – Subcatchments and measurement points in the Dender catchment .......................................... 50 Figure 46 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V07MAR289015, station 28970102 - Mark, Viane (2001-2013) ................................................................................................. 52 Figure 47 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V07MAR289015, station 28970102 - Mark, Viane (2001-2013) ................................................................................................. 52 Figure 48 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MAR289015, station 28970102 - Mark, Viane ....................................................... 53 Figure 49 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen(1997-2009) ....................................................................... 54 Figure 50 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen (1997-2009)....................................................................... 54 Figure 51 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen ........................... 55 Figure 52 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Dijle and Zenne catchment ............................ 56 Figure 53 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize(2001-2013) .............................................................................................. 59 Figure 54 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize (2001-2013) ............................................................................................. 59 Figure 55 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize .................................................. 60 Figure 56 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W08SENRON010, station L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres(calibration period) ................................................................................. 61 Figure 57 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W08SENRON010, station L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres (calibration period) ................................................................................ 61 Figure 58 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele (2002-2013) .............................................................................................................. 62 Figure 59 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele (2002-2013) ................................................................................................. 62 Figure 60 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele, calibration based on 2013 and 2014 only. .............................................................. 63 Figure 61 – Subcatchments and measurement points in the Demer catchment ........................................... 64 Figure 62 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt (2001-2013).............................................................................................................. 67 Figure 63 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt (2001-2013) ................................................................................................. 67 Figure 64 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt ........................................................ 68 Figure 65 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen (2001-2007) ............................................................................................. 69

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Figure 66 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen (2001-2007)................................................................................. 69 Figure 67 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen ...................................... 70 Figure 68 – Subcatchments and measure points for the Nete basin .............................................................. 71 Figure 69 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V10KNE052000, station 5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk (2001-2013) ........................................................................................ 74 Figure 70 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V10KNE052000, station 5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk (2001-2013) ............................................................................ 74 Figure 71 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events .............................................................................................................................................................. 75 Figure 72 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 – Wiekevorst (1995-2007) .................................................................................................... 76 Figure 73 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 – Wiekevorst (1995-2007) .................................................................................................... 76 Figure 74 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 – Wiekevorst ......................................................... 77 Figure 75 – Subcatchments and measure points for the Meuse basin ........................................................... 78 Figure 76 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis(calibration period) ....................................................................................................... 80 Figure 77 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis (calibration period) .......................................................................................... 80 Figure 78 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis .............................................................. 81 Figure 79 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin(calibration period) .............................................................................................................. 82 Figure 80 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin (calibration period) ................................................................................................. 82 Figure 81 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin...................................................................... 83

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

1 Introduction 1.1 Objectives The water balance model of the Scheldt basin will be used in order to perform low flow forecasts and calculate climate change scenarios. The goal of this subtask of the project ‘Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin’, is to define the most appropriate hydrological models for the water balance model of the Scheldt basin in order to meet this prerequisite. Therefore, different hydrological models for each of the sub catchments in the study area are set up and evaluated on their appropriateness for low flow forecasting and climate change scenarios. The regarded models are NAM (DHI, 2009), PDM (Moore, 2007), VHM (Willems, P.) and Wetspa. Overall descriptions of these models can be found in Vansteenkiste et al. (2011). After evaluation of each of these hydrological models, the most appropriate model for each catchment can be used for the particular application. This sub report covers the recalibration and evaluation of the NAM models, which are part of the MIKE 11 software package (DHI, 2009). In the previous project “Modelling of water availability and water allocation strategies for the Scheldt basin (project WL-09-46) the hydrological input of the water balance model was already generated by means of NAM models (De Boeck, K. et al, 2011). These NAM models were hitherto developed at Flanders Hydraulics within the scope of different projects, whereby the focus was mainly on flood forecasting and consequently on a good representation of high flows. In the current project, hydrological PDM models for the gauged catchments (i.e. catchments upstream of a gauging station) are calibrated whereby the focus is mainly on low flows. For each of the hydrological catchments, the PDM parameters will be determined. The calibration is performed based on an automatic optimization procedure followed by a visual control. During the optimization routine the best parameters set is selected for each catchment based on 2 criteria: (1) absolute error on cumulated total flow at each time step, and (2) logarithmic Nash-Sutcliff efficiency. The first criterion aims to model the global flow pattern, the latter focuses mainly on the low flows. Ungauged catchments will inherit model parameters from similar neighbouring catchments. After validation and robustness checks, the newly calibrated PDM models will, if suitable, ready to be used for low flow forecasting and climate change scenario simulations.

1.2 Structure of the report In a first section, the addressed catchments are defined and reliable gauging stations selected (Section 2). Second, rainfall and evapotranspiration are then interpolated for the selected catchments, according to the Thiessen polygon method (Section 3). The general structure and parameters of the PDM model are outlined in Section 4 while the calibration strategy and basic logic behind the automated calibration algorithm are explained in Section 5. Once all PDM models for the gauged catchments are calibrated, flow is simulated for 47 years (1967-2013). Ungauged catchments are simulated using parameters of a nearby catchment with similar characteristics. Results are synthetized in Section 6 and detailed in the appendices. Section 7 presents conclusions of the calibration and some recommendations to consider when using the calibrated PDM models in the next steps of the project.

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

2 Catchment delineation 2.1 General The inputs of the water allocation model are discharge time series at the upper boundaries and entries of tributaries in the modelled water network. This rainfall runoff discharge is simulated by means of one of the abovementioned hydrological models (NAM, PDM, VHM, Wetspa). Apart from the Scheldt catchment as such, the IJzer basin and the catchment of the Brugse Polders are also included in the water allocation model and therefore also included to this study. The map on Figure 1 shows the main river basins included in the water allocation model. In this report, results will be structured geographically per basin. Delineated hydrological sub catchments for the water allocation model were collected in 2010 based on past modelling studies (De Boeck et al. 2011) and updated within the framework of the present study. The sub catchments of the Meuse basin were delineated in the framework of the NAM model update (Maroy et al., 2021). Figure 1 shows an overview of the delineated catchments in the water allocation model. PDM models are calibrated for a selection of gauged catchments, where a time series of measured discharge is available. Some of the gauged catchments in the water allocation model are subdivided in different sub catchments to distribute the inflow over the modelled river stretches. Each of these sub catchments inherits the parameters of the main gauged catchment. An example of this is the Leie catchment upstream of the measuring station the Menen, which is subdivided into 27 sub catchments. The catchment itself is calibrated on the discharge timeseries of the gauging station the Menen. Within the water allocation model the rainfall runoff of each of these 27 sub catchments is calculated based on its particular interpolated rainfall- and evaporation series and linked individually to the appropriate modelled water course. For more detail about the choices and methodology of catchment delineation, please see De Boeck et al. (2011) 1 . All catchments of the water allocation model received a unique informative code, as defined in the previous phase of the project (De Boeck et al., 2011). Each code consists of 12 characters, relative to the catchment location, main water course and gauging station: • • • • •

Character 1: region where the catchment is located (V: Flanders; W: Wallonia; N: Netherlands; F: France) Characters 2 and 3: number of the Flemish hydrographic basin to which the catchment belongs. Characters 4,5 and 6: initials of the main water course Characters 7, 8 and 9: first three digits of the gauging station code (or 3 letter initials) for gauged catchments, and “000” for ungauged catchments. Characters 10, 11 and 12: three digit-suffix that ensure catchment code differentiation.

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 1 – Map of gauged and ungauged catchments of the Scheldt basin, Meuse, the Brugse polders and the IJzer

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2.2 Gauged catchments Table 1 lists the gauged stations used for calibration of the rainfall-runoff models. Catchments that were calibrated jointly are listed in Table 2. Table 1 – List of gauging stations on the Scheldt and its tributaries for calibration of hydrological models Gauging station (code - water course; location)

Catchment ID

Area (km²)

Gauged years

48810102 - Handzamevaart; Kortemark

V01HAN488180

78,6

1994-2016

46810102 - Ijzer; Roesbrugge Haringe

F01IJZ468000

393,0

1986-2016

49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote

V01IEP495080

63,4

1983-2014

49270102 - Kemmelbeek; Boezinge

V01KEM492060

73,9

1986-2015

49610102 - St. Jansbeek; Merkem

V01MAR496120

76,1

1986-2016

49110102 - Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren

V01POP491030

84,9

1984-2016

49910102 - Steenbeek; Merkem

V01SSV499140

16,1

1990-2009

44210102 – Ede; Maldegem

V02EDE442120

45,5

1983-2016

42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp

V02HER426010

77,3

1986-2016

4220102 – Kerkebeek; Sint-Michiels

V02KER422030

62,7

1983-2008

42510102 - Rivierbeek; Oostkamp

V02RIV425020

64,0

1983-2016

44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele

V03POE446000

106,8

1983-2010

3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek; Liezele

V04MOL036110

32,6

1966-2016

3710102 - Grote Molenbeek; Malderen

V04MOM037100

67,3

1966-2016

38680122 – Leie; Menen

F05LEI386001

2981,8

1998-2016

40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule

V05HEU403210

91,9

1972-2016

40110102 - Mandel; Oostrozebeke

V05MAN401230

258,4

1967-2013

32580122 - Bovenschelde; Bossuit

F06BOS325001

5217,6

2001-2014

34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove

V06MAA347160

48,7

1972-2016

34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm

V06ZWA342190

112,1

1972-2016

L5412 – Rhosnes; Amougies

W06RHOL54100

161,9

2012-2016

28510102 – Bellebeek; Essene

V07BEL285070

88,7

28970102 – Mark; Viane

V07MAR289015

173,9

1976-2016

28210102 – Molenbeek; Erpe Mere

V07MOE282100

46,4

1986-2016

28810102 – Molenbeek; Geraardsbergen

V07MOG288020

23,1

1985-2014

2708-1050 Dendre; Lessines

W07DENLES004

511,8

11110102-Barebeek; Elewijt

V08BAR111370

69,9

1997-2004

9310102 – Dijle; Wilsele

V08DIJ093400

886,9

1974-2014

23310102 – Zuunbeek; St Pietersleeuw

V08ZUU233100

64,8

1985-2016

2371-10050 Samme; Ronquieres

W08SAMRON000

133,6

1989-2016

L5670 –Senette; Ronquieres

W08SENRON010

70,4

1977-2016

1951-10050 Zenne; Tubize

W08SENTUB030

215,9

1975-2016

13610102 – Demer; Hasselt

V09DEM136000

255,1

1997-2016

15210102 - Gete; Halen

V09GET152080

800,4

1969-2013

16310102 – Herk; Kermt

V09HER163010

274,6

1977-2016

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Gauging station (code - water course; location)

Catchment ID

Area (km²)

Gauged years

14710102 - De Hulpe; Molenstede

V09HUL147150

80,1

1986-2016

14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal

V09LOS143300

15,2

1986-2016

16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen

V09MAN161040

102,9

1983-2011

14410102 - Motte; Rillaar

V09MOT144270

33,6

1986-2010

14510102 - Velp; Ransberg

V09VEL145100

96,8

1969-2016

14110102 - Rotselaar; Winge

V09WIN141310

64,7

1986-2016

14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen

V09ZWA148120

96,2

1983-2016

8610102 - Grote Laak; Vorst

V10GLA086020

62,6

1986-2014

7610102 - Grote Nete; Geel-Zammel

V10GNE076999

243,5

1985-2013

5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk

V10KNE052000

584,7

1983-2016

6210102 – Molenbeek; Pulle

V10MOP062140

77,3

1986-2014

8210102 – Wimp; Wiekevorst

V10WIM082050

65,4

1989-2007

Table 2 – Catchments calibrated jointly based on one gauging station

Station (code - water course; location) 46810102 - IJzer; Roesbrugge Haringe

Joint code

Catchments

F01IJZ468000

V01HEI468010 F01YSE468000 F05BEC386023 F05DEU386090 V05LEI386180 F05BEC386025 F05DEU386110 F05LOI386035 F05BOU386005 F05DEU386120 F05LYS386000

38680122 – Leie, Menen

F05LEI386001

F05CLA386017

F05DEU386130 F05LYS386010

F05CLA386020

F05DEU386140 F05LYS386015

F05DEU386040 F05DEU386150 F05LYS386115 F05DEU386050 F05DEU386160 F05MAR386070 F05DEU386060 F05LAW386018 F05MAR386100 F05DEU386080 F05LAW386030 W05LYS386170 F06BOS325000 F06ERC325030

W06BOS325095

F06BOS325015 F06HOG325070 W06BOS325105 32580122 Bovenschelde; Bossuit

F06BOS325016 F06RHO325060 W06BOS325115 F06BOS325001

F06BOS325017 F06SCA325020

W06HAI325080

F06BOS325018 F06SCA325025

W06HAI325085

F06BOS325019 F06SEL325040

W06HAI325090

F06ECA325050 F06SEN325010

2.3 Ungauged catchments The PDM parameters for the ungauged catchments in the modelled area, are inherited from neighbouring gauged catchments. The link between the ungauged and the corresponding gauged catchment will be made based on the catchment characteristics (soil, slope, concentration time, land use). This will be studied in the next step of the study. Final version

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3 Input data preprocessing 3.1 Thiessen polygon method Interpolated precipitation was produced for each catchment according to the Thiessen polygon method, using Hydr@ (IMDC, 2010). Rainfall and evapotranspiration are interpolated using weights inversely proportional to the distance to the weather station, using measurements available for each time step. Because of the large scale and the long term nature of time series used in this study, a daily time step is used. For consistency reasons, calibration is also based on daily time series. Both meteorological and discharge time series are thus sampled at a daily time step.

3.2 Precipitation Thiessen precipitation needed to be calculated for all delineated subcatchments (Section 2). Source data consists hereby of rainfall measurements from 1967 to 2013, spread over the entire model area and around. The Scheldt catchment extends over France, Flanders, Wallonia and the Netherlands. Precipitation data was thus gathered from instances in Belgium, Netherlands and France. For Belgium, precipitation data was gathered from KMI (The Royal Meteorological institute) and SPW (Public Services of Wallonia). For France, data was gathered from Météo France. Crosses on Figure 1 show used rainfall metering stations on and around the Scheldt basin (Météo France and KMI). Since the rainfall-runoff modelling study of De Boeck et al. (2011), reliability of the rainfall interpolation was greatly increased for the French Leie and Bovenschelde (discussed in Michielsen et al., 2021). Due to additional data from the French weather stations, the amount of rain gauges for the the Bovenschelde and Leie (including the French part) increases to 46 rain gauges and 30 respectively (Table 3). Table 3 – Number of rain gauges per hydrographic basin

Hydrographic basin

Surface area (km²) 2

Number of subcatchments (gauged and ungauged)

Number of rain gauges

Benedenschelde

1 704

Bovenschelde

5 947

Brugse Polders

1 046

Demer

2 334

Dender

1 384

Dijle en Zenne

2 450

Gentse Kanalen

917

Ijzer

1 046

Leie

3 886

Nete

1 673

Bekkenbeheerplannen Vlaanderen(ANON., 2009) 6

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3.3 Evapotranspiration Whereas there is a lot of precipitation input data, it doesn’t apply for evaporation data. Thiessen evaporation data is very scarce. As an example, for the entire period (from 1967-2013), there was only one active PE station in France, located in Langres, 10 km outside the southernmost part of the Scheldt basin. The evaporation per catchment was calculated based on interpolation of PE data which was already available from the Scheldt basin (a combination of Uccle and Herentals data). All interpolated evapotranspiration time series are practically identical because of their geographical proximity.

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4 Rainfall-runoff modelling methodology The hydrological model used which is investigated in this subreport is the conceptual rainfall-runoff Probability Distributed Model, or PDM model. PDM is a rainfall-runoff lumped model structure proposed by Moore 2007 and is part of the InfoWorks software package (Innovyze). For each catchment, discharge is simulated based on a unique set of parameters using interpolated rainfall and potential evapotranspiration timeseries as input. A description of PDM is outlined below.

4.1 Structure of the PDM hydrological model The PDM model is a lumped, conceptual rainfall-runoff model, simulating the overland- and base-flow components as a function of the moisture contents in three storages. Figure 2 below shows the general structure of the PDM model. The main components (reservoirs), state and flow variables, and parameters are represented. PDM includes a probability distributed soil moisture storage, a surface storage for quick flow and groundwater storage for slow flow. Runoff production to the quick flow is represented as a saturation excess controlled by the absorption capacity at the surface. The variability of this absorption capacity within the catchment is characterised by a probability density function, typically a Pareto distribution. The groundwater recharge depends on the soil storage by a power relation on the excess to a threshold storage below which there is no drainage, water being held under soil tension. Being a lumped model, PDM treats each catchment as a single unit. The parameters and variables represent, therefore, average values for the entire catchment. For that reason, some of the parameters are related to physical processes but final values must be calibrated against hydrological time series. For more detail on the PDM model, please refer to Moore 2007 and the user manual (Halcrow/HR Wallingford , 2000). Figure 2 – The structure of the PDM rainfall-runoff model (Moore et al. 2007)

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4.2 PDM parameters description Rainfall and evaporation 1. Rainfall factor fc (“rainfraction”) [-] 2. Exponent in actual evaporation function be (“bevaporation”) [-] This parameter affects variation between seasons and years. Either a linear (bevaporation = 1) or a quadratic form (= 2) are usually assumed (Moore 2007) but ISIS PDM User manual suggests the value of 2.5. Moisture storage distribution These parameters affect time of onset of runoff and rate of wetting up, but also feeds back to evaporation and recharge rates. 3. Minimum and maximum store capacity cmin (“cmin”) [mm] 4. Maximum store capacity cmax (“cmax”) [mm] 5. Exponent of Pareto distribution b (“bpareto”) [-] This b parameter controls the spatial variability of the store capacity Recharge and runoff 6. Groundwater recharge time constant kg (“kdrainage”) [h mmbg-1] This parameter controls the rate of aquifer recharge 7. Soil tension storage capacity St (“PDM.TG”) [mm] This parameter is the threshold below which no groundwater can occur. Increasing it prevents complete drainage of the soil moisture store. 8. Exponent of recharge capacity bg (“bdrainage) [-] Increasing this parameter magnifies the sensitivity of the recharge rate to soil dryness. Surface flow 9. Time constants of cascade of two linear reservoirs k1, k2 (“CK1”, “CK2”) [h] These parameters control the sharpness of the peaks in the hydrograph. Typically, values range from 4 to 20, or even up to 50 depending on the size of the catchment. Base flow 10. Baseflow time constant kb ( “CKBF”) [h mmm-1] This parameter controls the length of the recession. The original PDM structure allows for quadratic or cubic storage but in this version, only the cubic relationship is considered. Values vary from 0 to 500.

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5 Calibration strategy 5.1 Optimization algorithm The algorithm used for optimization of PDM parameters is the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II or NSGA II (Kalyanmoy et al. 2002). This algorithm is suitable for optimization problems with multiple objective functions. Variable values are generated in the first iteration. Each solution, that is to say an array of variable values, is called an individual. A population is a group of N solutions in each iteration. In the following iterations the created individuals are going to be “children” of the previous population, that is to say they are going to inherit “features” from couples of individuals chosen in the previous population according to specified selection and crossover techniques. The user can choose to randomly mutate the children features when an offspring is created. The algorithm will then perform the evaluation of the solutions through the Pareto comparison, that is to say a solution dominates, or is better than, another solution if it is better than or equal to the other solution in all objectives and strictly better in at least one objective. A combined population R of parent and children population is formed; the individuals in it are sorted according to non-domination. Since all previous and current population members are included in R, the elitism is ensured. The best N solutions will be the population of the next iteration.

5.2 Objective function Automatic calibration consists of optimizing (1) agreement between the average simulated and observed catchment runoff (overall volume error) and (2) overall agreement of the shape of the hydrograph. To assess these two aspects, evaluation is based on the following goodness-of-fit indexes: 1. 2.

Absolute error on cumulated total flow at each time step (to minimize), and Logarithmic Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (to maximize).

These two objectives are suited for NSGA-II optimization because they are contradictory for a number of model parameters. A reduced number of objectives (two) facilitates and fastens the algorithm convergence while ensuring good overall performance of the model. It is also important that these objectives be contradictory in order for the optimum to be well defined. There are generally trade-offs between performance for high and low flows. Therefore, final manual and visual checks will complete performance evaluation with possible focus on low or high flow. The efficiency E proposed by Nash and Sutcliffe (1970) is defined as one minus the sum of the absolute squared differences between the predicted and observed values normalized by the variance of the observed values during the period under investigation. It is calculated as follows: 𝐸𝐸 = 1 −

with O observed and P predicted values.

∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1(𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖 − 𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖 )2 2 ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1�𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖 − 𝑂𝑂��

Eq. 1

To reduce the sensitivity to extreme values, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency E is also calculated with logarithmic values of O and P. Through logarithmic transformation of runoff values, the peaks are flattened and the low flows are kept more or less at the same level. As a result, the influence of low flow values is increased in

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comparison to the flood peaks, resulting in a higher sensitivity of log NSE to systematic model over- or underprediction (Krause et al. 2005). The second objective of the algorithm is minimizing the absolute error on cumulated values at each time step (day). This ensures that the water balance remains satisfactory throughout the simulation (all years simulated). The two goodness-of-fit statistics can be represented in 2 dimensions to represent the set of solutions evaluated by the algorithm. The best pairs constitute the Pareto front. In order to select one single best solution, the two performance indexes were normalized (or rescaled) across the explored range (Eq. 2): with xmin set to zero for the absolute error, and xmax set to 1 for the logarithmic NSE. ′ 𝑥𝑥−𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥

𝑥𝑥

𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥−𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥

Eq. 2

This normalization resulted in values between 0 and 1 for the absolute error and between -1 and 1 for the NSE. The final solution was then selected among the final Pareto front, looking at the minimum Euclidian distance to theoretical optimum: log NSE = 1 and Absolute Error =0 (Eq. 3). 𝑑𝑑 = �(𝑥𝑥𝐵𝐵 − 𝑥𝑥𝐴𝐴 )2 + (𝑦𝑦𝐵𝐵 − 𝑦𝑦𝐴𝐴 )2

Eq. 3

An example of Pareto front and final selection is shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4. Figure 3 – All evaluated candidates (individuals) and final population of solutions (Pareto front)

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5.3 Implementation in Python The Python version of the NSGA II algorithm was adapted for hydrological optimization purposes using a general framework supporting three rainfall-runoff models: NAM, PDM, VHM and Wetspa. Description of how the PDM model and the other lumped models are being implemented in Python can be found in Vansteenkiste et al. (2011) and Tran et al. (2014 a, b). The calibration Python shell currently supports the following: -

Optimization of (one or all) model parameters for a given calibration period, Evaluation of model parameters for a given validation period, Plotting results of various alternative parameter sets on the same plot or separately (for example, the final population generated by the algorithm), Generating automatic reports of calibration and validation as Word document, Manual calibration for a given calibration period.

The rainfall-runoff conceptual model used in this subtask is PDM. As a general rule, ten parameters were optimized: ['bpareto', 'bevaporation', 'cmin','cmax', 'CKBF', 'CK1', 'CK2', 'bdrainage', 'kdrainage', 'PDM.TG'] The meteorological inputs and the surface area of the catchments were controlled and assumed correct. Therefore, the parameter “rainfraction” available in the PDM model was not optimised and given a value of 1. Given the scale of the catchments and the length of the simulated series, the level of detail did not require adjustments of the time delay “tdly”. Flow returns and abstractions were not investigated for the gauged subcatchments . Rainfall-runoff models are expected to reproduce hydrological behaviour without constant flow addition or abstraction “qconst”. More generally, those three artificial parameters “rainfraction”, “tdly” and “qconst” are very context-dependant and little transferable to other catchments. Therefore, it is preferable to avoid them in order to transfer parameters in a meaningful manner to the models of ungauged

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catchments. Moreover, these parameters do not have any equivalent in the other lumped models (NAM and VHM) and calibrating them would make PDM little comparable with the rest. Catchment surface area was considered reliable and was not optimized. Initial states were the same in all cases (Table 4), with a warmup period of one year. Table 4 – Initial states and flow

Parameters

relSM

value

0.4

0.001

The explored parameter space was defined by boundaries in Table 5. These boundaries were assumed according to literature recommendations and past experience with PDM (Moore 2000). In some particular cases, the optimum was not well defined or the algorithm could not converge in reasonable range and these boundaries were adjusted. Whenever optimization was not delivering good results, boundaries were narrowed down using manual calibration. Table 5 – PDM parameters and optimization boundaries

Parameters

bpareto

bevaporation

cmin

cmax

CKBF

CK1

CK2

bdrainage

kdrainage

Lower boundary

0,1

100

0,5

1000

500

45000

Upper boundary

The model seems almost insensitive to the base flow time constant (CKBF parameter) especially given the large number of years of simulation in this study. It is given the value of 300 for all catchments.

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6 PDM model calibration 6.1 Model configuration In most cases and when data were available, a calibration period of 13 years was used, preferably from January 2001 to December 2013. Nevertheless, different time series were selected when available data were insufficient or unreliable, choosing 13 years of calibration if possible. Four windows of typical events were selected for visual evaluation: • • • •

11/2002-04/2003 (high flow) – 6 months 06/2008-11/2008 (transition) – 6 months 02/2005-11/2005 (low flow) – 10 months 11/2010-04/2011 (recession) – 6 months

The calibrated parameters were validated for the entire time series of available data (also outside of the calibration period). Normally this period ranges from 1967 to 2013. Adjustments for a certain catchment are reported in the catchment-specific paragraphs below.

6.2 Model evaluation While the optimization is limited to two objectives, logarithmic NSE and absolute error, it can be interesting to look at the other indexes listed when evaluating the final results. For example: -

Nash-Sutcliff efficiency Relative error (negative or positive) or bias Kling-Gupta efficiency (Gupta et al. 2009 and Kling et al. 2012) Relative Nash-Sutcliff efficiency -

𝐸𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 = 1 −

𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖 −𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖 ∑𝑛𝑛 � 𝑖𝑖=1� 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖

� 2 𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖 −𝑂𝑂 ∑𝑛𝑛 𝑖𝑖=1� 𝑂𝑂 � 𝑖𝑖

Eq. 4

Since this work focuses on low flows, more importance is given to logarithmic NSE. However, high NSE values should also be sought in order to ensure good enough performance for higher flows as well, as much as possible. An exact agreement between simulation and observations must not be expected because of different error sources (errors in meteorological input data, errors in measured discharge, errors inherent to the model structure). Calibration can only minimize those errors due to non-optimal parameter values. NSE and logNSE values above 0.7 can be considered good. Values below zero mean that the predictive power of the model is worse than the measured average. Considering deviation of the measured discharge time series and errors in the meteorological inputs, NSE values are not expected to be above 0.8 (Willems, 2007). Visual evaluation of the fit between simulated and observed total discharge is also taken into consideration to select the final solution, with a focus on good agreement of simulations for low flows. When useful, NashSutcliffe efficiency (non-logarithmic) was also taken into account for evaluating the final set of candidates (when other fitness indexes were equivalent for example).

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Apart from the calibration period, these goodness-of-fit statistics were calculated on the entire time series of available data (also outside of the calibration period) in order to validate calibrated parameters whenever more than 13 years of data was available. The following section synthetizes the main results and conclusions of the PDM calibration in each river basin. Detailed graphs and calculated statistics, for calibration and validation periods, are given for each gauged catchments in Annex 3 to Annex 12. The final sets of parameters for each calibrated PDM model and for each transposed PDM model are summarized in Annex 12.

6.3 IJzer basin 6.3.1

Context

Although there is no interaction between the Scheldt catchment and the IJzer catchment, the latter is included in the regional water allocation model for the sake of completeness. The total surface area of the IJzer catchment is of 1 101 km² from which about one third is located in France (WL, 2006). On the French side, the main tributaries are the Peene Becque, the Sale Becque and the Herzeele. In Flanders, the Poperingevaart, the Kemmelbeek, the Ieper-IJzer Canal with the Ieperlee and Martjensvaart, Stenensluisvaart, Houtensluisvaart and Handzamevaart are the main tributaries of the IJzer. Note that these tributaries are all discharging from the right bank of the IJzer River. There are 8 gauged catchments in the IJzer catchment, covering 786 km² (70 % of the IJzer catchment area). Subcatchments V01HEI468010 and F01YSE468000 are located upstream of the gauging station in Roesbrugge. Figure 5 shows the catchments and corresponding measurement points. Figure 5 – Catchments and flow metering station on the IJzer basin

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6.3.2

Model performance

Table 6 and Table 7 present general performance statistics for the gauged subcatchments of the IJzer basin for the calibration and validation period. Graphs of simulations for the subcatchments V01HAN488180 (best model performance in this catchment) and V01IEP495080 (worst model performance in this catchment) are presented below (Figure 6 to Figure 13). All detailed results and graphs of the remaining subcatchments can be found in Annex 3. Values in Table 6 indicate a good agreement between the simulated and measured flow rates for the majority of the catchments, with overall NSE and LogNSE values higher than 0.6 and RelErr lower than 5 %. Nevertheless, the results of the calibration and validation of subcatchment V01IEP495080 are not acceptable (Table 6 and Table 7). The low values of NSE and LogNSE are attributed to the complex hydrological situation of the catchment, which is influenced by the presence of structures and diversions. However visual inspection (Figure 9 to Figure 13) shows that the results are acceptable for most years, except for the last years. Note that V01IEP495080 is one of the few catchments to have a groundwater recharge exponent parameter different from 1 (bdrainage = 1.1). The catchment with code V01POP491030 presents an overestimation of discharge from 2009, similar to what was concluded from NAM calibration as well. This suggests that the data after 2009 is somewhat unreliable or disturbed. The water balance and the general model performance is nevertheless satisfactory over the entire validation period except for those 4 last years (Table 7). Remarks on the discharge measurements: For the catchment F01IJZ468000, the period from 1996 to 2005 was discarded (for both calibration and validation) due to unreliable high observed discharge values. The measured base flow is indeed unnaturally high during this period and most likely due to a loss of measurement quality or change of gauging parameters of the station, that were not corrected. This exclusion results in a reduction of the calibration period to 9 years. The calibration period selected for the catchment with code V01IEP495080 is 1996-2008 since the discharge data after 2008 is not trustworthy. Very low discharge (< 0.1 m3/s) often leads to less reliable values in this series. In the catchment V01SSV499140 there is not observed discharge from the beginning of the year 2009. Moreover, the gauging device for this catchment in Merkem was replaced in 2005 resulting in a shift in the discharge time series. Therefore, data before mid-2005 was discarded from calibration as well as it is not consistent with the time series before. Because years of data are relatively scarce for this catchment , years 2005-2008 are used for validation however, despite their lower quality.

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Table 6 – Overview of calibration results for gauged subcatchments in the IJzer basin Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km)

46810102 - Ijzer; Roesbrugge Haringe

F01IJZ468000 (V01HEI468010 and F01YSE468000)

393.0

0.681

0.673

-2.2%

-5.1%

2005-2013

48810102 Handzamevaart; Kortemark

V01HAN488180

78.6

0.619

0.784

0.6%

0.3%

2001-2013

< 2004 : 11

49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote

V01IEP495080

63.4

0.213

0.562

9.8%

12.1%

1996-2008

49270102 Kemmelbeek; Boezinge

V01KEM492060

73.9

0.58

0.521

-0.3%

-2.6%

2001-2013

49610102 - St. Jansbeek; Merkem

V01MAR496120

76.1

0.684

0.683

-4.0%

6.4%

2001-2013

49110102Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren

V01POP491030

84.9

0.38

0.62

-7.5%

18.9%

2001-2008 (-2013)

3.6

49910102 - Steenbeek; Merkem

V01SSV499140

16.1

0.645

0.675

-3.6%

-4.6%

1996-2005

< mid-2008: 10

>= 2004: 2.5

>= mid-2008 : 2

Table 7 – Overview of validation results for gauged subcatchments in the IJzer basin Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Validation period

46810102 - Ijzer; Roesbrugge Haringe

F01IJZ468000 (V01HEI468010 and F01YSE468000)

393.0

0.695

0.62

9.4%

4.2%

1987-2013

48810102 Handzamevaart; Kortemark

V01HAN488180

78.6

0.626

0.782

2.4%

1.7%

1994-2013

49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote

V01IEP495080

63.4

0.172

0.589

-11.2%

-2.2%

1983-2013

49270102 -Kemmelbeek; Boezinge

V01KEM492060

73.9

0.624

0.565

9.9%

4.0%

1986-2013

49610102 - St. Jansbeek; Merkem

V01MAR496120

76.1

0.651

0.644

7.3%

8.6%

1986-2013

49110102Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren

V01POP491030

84.9

0.361

0.677

-4.3%

4.8%

1984-2013

49910102 - Steenbeek; Merkem

V01SSV499140

16.1

0.638

0.672

-4.2%

-4.8%

1991-2008

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48810102 - Handzamevaart; Kortemark (V01HAN488180) Figure 6 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Handzamevaart; Kortemark (2001-2013)

Figure 7 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Handzamevaart; Kortemark (2001-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 8 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Handzamevaart; Kortemark

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49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote (V01IEP495080) Figure 9 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote(1996-2008)

Figure 10 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 11 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote

Figure 12 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 13 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote

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6.4 Brugse Polders 6.4.1

Context

The catchment of the Brugse Polders has an area of 1046 km², which is 4 % of the total area of subcatchments within the water allocation model. The Brugse Polders catchment is limited by the North Sea in the North and by the Dutch border in the Northeast. The main rivers of the basin are the canal connecting Gent and Oostende (Kanaal Gent-Oostende), the deviation canal (Afleidingskanaal) of the Leie and the Leopold canal. These artificial canals conduct water from the Leie catchment towards the sea. Additionally, several local polder water courses flow into these canals (De Boeck et al. 2011). In the Brugse Polders, four gauged catchments account for 29 % of the total surface area (Figure 14). Figure 14 – Subcatchments and measurement points in the catchment of the Brugse Polders

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6.4.2

Model performance

Table 8 and Table 9 present general performance statistics for the gauged catchments of the Brugse Polders for the calibration and validation period. Graphs of simulations of the subcatchment V02EDE442120 (best performance) and V02HER426010 (worst performance) are presented below (Figure 15 to Figure 20). For more detailed results on the other catchments, see Annex 4. All the catchments show good performance. Regarding water balance, the total flow is slightly underestimated for V02KER422030 and V02RIV425020, while it is overestimated in the catchment V02HER426010, more specially during the high flow events at the end of 2009 and 2010. Remarks on the data: V02KER422030 does not have data after 2007, consequently the period 1995-2007 was selected for the calibration. Table 8 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Brugse Polders

Gauging station

Catchment code

44210102 - Maldegem

V02EDE442120

45.5

0.727

0.719

0.0%

0.7%

2001-2013

<2013 : 7 2013 : 10

42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp

V02HER426010

77.3

0.579

0.761

5.5%

9.9%

2001-2013

2011 & 2013: 13 Other years: 5

4220102 - Kerkebeek, SintMichiels

V02KER422030

62.7

0.606

0.705

-1.5%

4.8%

1995-2007

< 2000 : 3 >=2000 : 11

42510102- Rivierbeek; Oostkamp

V02RIV425020

64.0

0.704

0.812

-2.3%

2.4%

2001-2013

2001-2003 : 13 Other years: 7.5

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km)

Area (km²)

Table 9 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Brugse Polders

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Validation period

44210102 - Maldegem

V02EDE442120

45.5

0.67

0.679

-0.8%

0.4%

1984-2013

42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp

V02HER426010

77.3

0.609

0.754

3.7%

5.6%

1987-2013

4220102 - Kerkebeek, Sint-Michiels

V02KER422030

62.7

0.587

0.672

-5.9%

-0.6%

1984-2007

42510102- Rivierbeek; Oostkamp

V02RIV425020

64.0

0.696

0.745

-5.7%

-4.3%

1984-2013

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44210102 - Maldegem (V02EDE442120) Figure 15 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 - Maldegem(2001-2013)

Figure 16 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 - Maldegem (2001-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 17 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 – Maldegem

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42510102- Rivierbeek; Oostkamp (V02RIV425020) Figure 18 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp(calibration period)

Figure 19 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 20 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp

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6.5 Gentse Kanalen 6.5.1

Context

The Gentse Kanalen catchment, covers a cluster of canals and their respective catchments and has a surface area of 917 km² (De Boeck 2011). The catchment represents 4 % of the total model area of the water allocation model. The Gentse Kanalen basin is limited West by the Brugse Polders, East by the Benedenschelde and South by the Leie catchment. The Dutch border stands in the North of the basin. Both the Leopold canal and the Gent-Terneuzen canal discharge into the Westerschelde (Western Scheldt) in the Netherlands. There is only one gauged catchment within the basin of the Gentse Kanalen: 44656122 on the Poekebeek in Nevele. During the previous study the discharge at the Molenbeek in Puivelde was checked, based on project specific discharge data of the Sigmaplan update project (De Boeck et al., 2011). This station is not a permanent discharge station and consequently no new calibration is possible for this subcatchment. Catchments and measurement points are shown on the map in Figure 21. The gauged and recalibrated area of the basin amounts for 12 % of the total surface area of the basin. Figure 21 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Gentse Kanalen catchment

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6.5.2

Model performance

Table 10 and Table 11 present general performance statistics for the only gauged subcatchment of the Gentse Kanalen basin for the validation and calibration periods. The V03POE446000 subcatchment shows a correct performance for both periods with values of NSE and LogNSE around 0.7. Graphs of discharge series are presented at Figure 22 and Figure 23. There are slight underestimations of the discharge in 1994 and 1995 as well as in 2009. The same periods (recession) are also underestimated by the NAM model which suggests uncharacteristic behaviour of the catchment after those high flow events. For more detailed results on the validation, see Annex 5. Remarks on the data: the Poekebeek (V03POE44600) discharge was not measured from 18/01/2001 to 29/11/2004 and after 2009. Hence, the calibration period starts as soon as 1993 in order to include 13 years of data. Table 10 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Gentse Kanalen

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele

V03POE446000

106.8

NSE

0.71

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

0.706

-0.3%

6.0%

1993-2010

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km) < 1995 :9 >= 1995 : 6

Table 11 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Gentse Kanalen

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Gauged years

44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele

V03POE446000

106.8

0.671

0.737

9.5%

9.3%

1983-2010

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44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele (V03POE446000) Figure 22 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele(calibration period)

Figure 23 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele (calibration period)

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6.6 Benedenschelde 6.6.1

Context

The catchment of the Benedenschelde is 1 704 km² and belongs to the main Scheldt catchment. It covers the Flemish part of the tidal rivers in the Scheldt estuary, except the catchments corresponding to the main tributaries in this reach (Nete, Demer, Dijle, Zenne and Dender). The Benedenschelde catchment accounts for 8 % of the total catchment of the study area. About 6 % of the surface area of the basin is gauged. During the previous study the discharge at the Ledebeek in Bormt was checked, based on project specific discharge data of the Sigmaplan update project (De Boeck et al., 2011). This station is not a permanent discharge station and consequently no new calibration is possible for this subcatchment. Figure 24 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Benedenschelde catchment

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6.6.2

Model performance

Table 12 and Table 13 present general performance statistics for the gauged catchments of the Benedenschelde basin for the calibration and validation period. Graphs of simulation of the catchments V04MOM037100 (best model performance) and V04MOL036110 (worst model performance) are presented below (Figure 25 to Figure 30). For more detailed results on the validation, see Annex 6. The two models show good simulation of low flows with a satisfactory error on volume in the calibration years (below 4 %). Log NSE remains high (around 0.7) for the validation period but there is a model quality loss more important of water balance he relative error on volume increase to 11.5 and 8.4% respectively for the validation in Liezele and Malderen, showing a loss of goodness-of-fit for the validation periods. Low NSE values indicate a poor simulation of flow peaks that are overestimated in both calibration and validation years. In particular, a very high peak is simulated at the end of 2010 that was not measured for V04MOM037100 (Figure 25). Table 12 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Benedenschelde basin

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km)

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele

V04MOL036110

32.6

0.629

0.781

0.4%

-3.1%

2001-2013

< 2007 : 10 >=2007 : 6

3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen

V04MOM037100

67.3

0.406

0.76

0.3%

-3.9%

2001-2013

Table 13 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Benedenschelde basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Validation period

3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele

V04MOL036110

32.6

0.579

0.69

15.6%

11.5%

1967-2013

3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen

V04MOM037100

67.3

0.51

0.711

13.8%

8.4%

1967-2013

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3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen (V04MOM037100) Figure 25 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen(2001-2013)

Figure 26 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen (2001-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 27 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen

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3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele (V04MOL036110) Figure 28 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele(calibration period)

Figure 29 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 30 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele

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6.7 Leie 6.7.1

Context

The Leie catchment, being part of the international “Leie and Deûle” basin, has an area of 3 886 km² of which 982 km² is situated in Flanders. In Ghent, the Leie confluences with the Scheldt. The subcatchments of the Leie count for 18 % of the total study area. In France, the Leie (or Lys in French) is connected to the Canal de Neufossé and the Canal d’Aire à la Bassée, both part of the canal system between Duinkerke and Denain. This canal constitutes the East-West link between the Scheldt, the Deûle, the Leie and the North Sea. The Dunkerque-Denain canal is supplied with water of the Schelde and its tributary, the Scarpe. Some of the water flowing from the Scheldt in the canal system, flows back to the Leie through the canalised Deûle. This interaction of rivers and canals leads to an enlarged complexity regarding the calibration of a hydrological model for this catchment. Figure 31 shows the location of the flow gauges used for calibration of the NAM models on the Leie basin. Figure 31 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Leie catchment

The recalibration of the catchment upstream of the gauging station in Menen on the Leie (station 38680122), is done for this 1 big gauged subcatchment. However, the final runoff for the water allocation model is simulated separately for the 22 subcatchments separately, to be able to distribute the flow over the complex canal system described above. With three gauging stations in Menen, Heule and Oostrozebeke, 85,6 % of the Leie basin is covered by discharge measurements.

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6.7.2

Model performances

Table 14 and Table 15 present general performance statistics for the gauged catchments of the Leie basin for the calibration and validation period . Graphs of simulations for the catchments F05LEI386001 (best model performance) and V05MAN401230 (worst model performance) are presented below (Figure 32 to Figure 37). For more detailed results on the other catchments, see Annex 7. In paragraph 3.2 it was already mentioned that refinement of the precipitation data in the Leie catchment significantly improves the performance of the hydrological model for the catchment upstream Menen, compared to the first version of the water allocation model (see Michielsen et. al, 2021). Very good model performance was achieved for the catchments F05LEI386001 and V05MAN401230 for the calibration and validation periods. The simulation of the catchment V05HEU403210 has a good fit for both calibration and validation years but with a slightly higher error on cumulative volumes. Goodness-of-fit statistics appear as especially high but this can be related to the fact that F05LEI386001 is a very large catchment with high discharge. V05MAN401230 also, to a smaller extent. Remarks on the data: The catchment V05MAN401230 has unreliable observed data for some periods. There is a gap in the data from 1978 to August 1982, and then from 1996 to 2004. In 2005 and the second part of 2006, discharge values were estimated based on the activity of the weir 1km upstream. From the end of 2007 (09/11/2007) on, data also get the “U” data quality flag. Data is therefore less reliable during this period and was excluded from both calibration and validation. Calibration was performed on the continuous period of 1983-1995, preferred to a more recent but discontinued period. Table 14 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Leie basin

Calibration period

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km)

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

38680122, Leie te Menen

F05LEI386001

2981.8

0.801

0.781

-2.0%

0.0%

2001-2013

Irrelevant given the size of the basin

40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule

V05HEU403210

91.9

0.758

0.713

-4.6%

0.9%

2001-2013

<2004 : 6

40110102 - Mandel; Oostrozebeke (L05_409)

V05MAN401230

>=2004 : 10 258.4

0.812

0.828

0.1%

-1.1%

1983-1995

Table 15 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Leie basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

38680122, Leie te Menen

F05LEI386001

2981.8

0.808

0.795

-1.6%

-0.1%

1999-2013

40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule

V05HEU403210

91.9

0.777

0.736

-5.0%

-3.8%

1975-2013

40110102 - Mandel; Oostrozebeke

V05MAN401230

258.4

0.759

0.734

-4.2%

0.9%

1967-2013

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38680122, Leie te Menen (F05LEI386001) Figure 32 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment F05LEI386001, station 38680122 – Leie, Menen(2001-2013)

Figure 33 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment F05LEI386001, station 38680122 – Leie, Menen(2001-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 34 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F05LEI386001, station 38680122 – Leie, Menen(2001-2013)

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40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule (V05HEU403210) Figure 35 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule(calibration period)

Figure 36 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 37 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule

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6.8 Bovenschelde 6.8.1

Context

The Bovenschelde basin extends over France, Wallonia and Flanders. This basin has an area of approximately 576 km². Before it enters Flanders in Spiere-Helkijn, the Scheldt has a length of 124 km and a corresponding upstream catchment of 5 380 km² in France and Wallonia. The Bovenschelde basin accounts for 30 % of the total catchment of the study area. The Bossuit-Kortrijk canal connects the Bovenschelde to the Leie, whereas the Spierekanaal links the Bovenschelde to the Deûle. Figure 38 shows the location of the catchments and measuring points on the Bovenschelde basin. Actually, the subcatchments upstream from the station in Bossuit (32580122) can be seen as one gauged subcatchment. However, as stated before, the discharge is simulated separately for each subcatchment to generate input for the water allocation model. The total surface area considered gauged is thus 97 % (Figure 38). Figure 38 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Bovenschelde catchment

6.8.2

Model performance

Table 16 and Table 17 present general performance statistics for the gauged catchments of the Bovenschelde basin for the calibration and validation period. Graphs of simulations of the catchments V06ZWA342190 (best performance) and V06MAA347160 (worst performance) are presented below (Figure 39 to Figure 44). For more detailed results on the other catchments, see Annex 8. Adequate modelling was achieved for the catchments F06BOS325001 and V06ZWA342190, although no validation was done in F06BOS325001 due to the absence of additional data besides the calibration period. Worse results were found for V06MAA347160 and W06RHOL54100. There is a an important error on the 44

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water volume during validation of the catchment V06MAA347160. A large portion of this difference of balance happens in 1993 and 1994 and might be accentuated due to wrong observations at that time. As shown in Figure 42 and Figure 44, discharge during recession is correctly modelled for most of the other years of data. Note that no better could be achieved with a NAM structure, which suggest that the catchment has somewhat unexpected behaviour. The contribution of this subcatchment to discharge of the Scheldt during low flows is low however. In W06RHOL54100, with a gauge located in Amougies (Wallonia), there is a general underestimation of the total flow due to poor flow peak modelling in the years of 2004 to 2008. Remarks on the data: The station 32580122 on the Bovenschelde in Bossuit (F06BOS325001) only has records from 13/09/2001 onwards. The catchment W06RHOL54100 only has observed discharge data from January 2000 onwards. Using the usual 2001-2013 period for calibration, there is therefore only one year of extra data for validation. Discharge of the Maarkebeek in Etikhove (V06MAA347160) was estimated in 2005 and discharges above 12 m3/s are mostly estimated. In Nederzwalm (V06ZWA342190), suspicious data was removed in 1982; moreover, data records start to be more unstable and regularly interpolated from August 2012 onwards. Therefore, the year 2013, where the most records were missing or interpolated, is excluded from both calibration and validation periods. Table 16 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Bovenschelde basin

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km)

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

32580122 - Bovenschelde; Bossuit

F06BOS325001

5217.6

0.59

0.67

-4.8%

0.3%

2002-2013

Irrelevant given the size of the basin

34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove

V06MAA347160

48.7

0.41

0.61

0.7%

1.1%

2001-2013

34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm

V06ZWA342190

112.1

0.69

0.71

-3.3%

-2.9%

2000-2012

L5412 Amougies - Rhosnes

W06RHOL54100

161.9

0.45

0.60

-0.9%

12.8%

2000-2013

< 1999 : 3 1999 - 2000 : 6 2000 - 2009 :13 >=2009 : 5.5

Table 17 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Bovenschelde basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

32580122 - Bovenschelde; Bossuit

F06BOS325001

5217.6

No validation in Bossuit

34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove

V06MAA347160

48.7

0.43

0.58

34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm

V06ZWA342190

112.1

0.65

L5412 Amougies - Rhosnes

W06RHOL54100

161.9

0.44

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logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Validation period

-19.6%

-17.5%

1972-2013

0.56

12.2%

6.0%

1973-2013

0.61

-2.7%

12.9%

2000-2013

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34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (V06ZWA342190) Figure 39 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (2000-2012)

Figure 40 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (2000-2012)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 41 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (calibration period)

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34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove (V06MAA347160) Figure 42 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V06MAA347160, station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove (2001-2013)

Figure 43 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V06MAA347160, station station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove (2001-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 44 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V06MAA347160, station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove

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6.9 Denderbekken 6.9.1

Context

The Dender basin has an area of 1 384 km² and extends over Wallonia and Flanders. The upstream part (675 km²) is located in Wallonia and the lower part (709 km²) in Flanders. The Dender basin accounts for 6 % of the total catchment of the study area. With 5 gauging stations used for model calibration, the portion of gauged catchments in this basin accounts for 61 % of total catchment area. The gauging station in Lessines is used to calibrate a hydrological model for the catchment upstream of this gauging station. In the water allocation model, this catchment is divided into 3 subcatchments. Figure 45 – Subcatchments and measurement points in the Dender catchment

6.9.2

Model performance

Table 18 and Table 19 present the general performance statistics for the gauged catchments of the Dender basin for the calibration and validation periods. Graphs of simulations for the catchments V07MAR289015 (best model performance) and V07MOG288020 (worst model performance) are presented below (Figure 46 to Figure 50). More detailed results on the other catchments is in Annex 9. PDM model calibration was not easy for the subcatchments of the Dender basin. Model performance is overall satisfactory for low flows (high log NSE) but high and intermediate flows are sometimes poorly simulated. Loss of goodness-of-fit from calibration to validation remains limited showing that the models, however limited for reproducing peaks, are robust across the full period with discharge data.

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Remarks on the data: For the gauging station 28210102 on the Molenbeek in Erpe Mere (V07MOE282100), high discharge values are unreliable above 5m3/s from 1999 to 2003 and in 2005. Discharge data was discarded from 27/10/2009 until 15/06/2011 in the WISKI series. Consequently, the calibration period was limited to 2009. Years 2012 and 2013 have a lot of missing data and interpolated values and show an unusual high-base flow behaviour. They were therefore excluded from both validation and calibration. For discharge measurements in Geraardsbergen (V07MOG288020), the years after 2009 have been deleted due to the existence of unreliable measured discharge data and therefore the calibration series starts in 2007. In 1999, high discharge values were estimated (above 2.7 m3/s). In 2000 and 2001, high values were estimated with lower accuracy. From 2000 to 2002, low flows measurements had to be corrected because the gauge did not measure low levels adequately. The discharge data in Lessines start in 15/01/2008 for catchment W07DENLES004. Calibration therefore limited to 2008-2013. Validation will happen in Overboelare for both W07DENLES004 and V07MAR289015. Table 18 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Dender basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km)

28510102 - Bellebeek, Essene

V07BEL285070

88,7

0.523

0.728

0.4%

-0.7%

2001-2013

28970102 - Mark, Viane

V07MAR289015

173,9

0.585

0.702

-2.6%

1.2%

2001-2013

< 2003 : 12 2003 - 2011: 10 >=2011 :2

28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere

V07MOE282100

46.4

0.606

0.663

-6.4%

-0.6%

1997-2009

< 2004 :10 >= 2004 : 5

28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen

V07MOG288020

23.1

0.331

0.703

3.0%

6.6%

1997-2009

< 2009 :3 >= 2009 : 15

27081002 – Dender, Lessines

W07DENLES004

511.8

0.47

0.66

4.9%

-1.4%

2008-2013

Irrelevant given the size of the basin (max 16 km)

Table 19 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Dender basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Validation period

28510102 - Bellebeek, Essene

V07BEL285070

88.7

0.454

0.644

-7.7%

-3.9%

1973-2013

28970102 - Mark, Viane

V07MAR289015

173.9

0.635

0.636

2.4%

3.0%

1977-2013

28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere

V07MOE282100

46.4

0.596

0.689

1.4%

1.3%

1986-2009

28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen

V07MOG288020

23.1

0.093

0.597

-3.2%

3.1%

1986-2013

26880122 – Dender, Overboelare

W07DENLES004

799.2

0.467

0.667

5.2%

-1.3%

2001-2013

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28970102 - Mark, Viane (V07MAR289015) Figure 46 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V07MAR289015, station 28970102 - Mark, Viane (2001-2013)

Figure 47 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V07MAR289015, station 28970102 - Mark, Viane (2001-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 48 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MAR289015, station 28970102 - Mark, Viane

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28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen (V07MOG288020) Figure 49 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen(1997-2009)

Figure 50 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen (1997-2009)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 51 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen

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6.10 Dijle and Zenne 6.10.1 Context The Dijle basin stretches over Flanders (55 %) and Wallonia (45 %) and has an area of about 1 290 km². The Zenne basin (ca. 1 160 km²) spreads across Wallonia (50 %), Brussels (14 %) and Flanders (36 %). In total, the Dijle and Zenne basin accounts for 11 % of the total area of the Scheldt basin. Catchments and gauging stations are represented at Figure 52. Five stations are located on the Zenne on its tributaries before the confluence with the Dijle, measuring discharge for 43 % of the Zenne catchment. The discharge of the Dijle is measured by one station in Wilsele (67 % of the catchment surface area is gauged). Figure 52 – Subcatchments and measurement points on the Dijle and Zenne catchment

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6.10.2 Model performance Table 20 and Table 21 present general performance statistics for the gauged catchments of the Dijle and the Zenne basins for the calibration and validation period. Graphs of simulations for the catchments W08SENTUB030 (best model performance) and W08SENRON010 (worst model performance) are presented below (Figure 53 to Figure 57). For more detailed results on the other catchments, see Annex 10. The catchments V08BAR111370, V08ZUU233100 and W08SENTUB030 have adequate model performance with NSE and LogNSE values above 0.6. This with the exception of V08ZUU233100, but for the project purpose this hydrological model can even though be considered as adequate as low flows are correctly represented. Overall, all the catchments follow the same pattern as there is a general flow underestimation during the period comprised between 2004 and 2010 and flow overestimation afterwards (i.e. V08ZUU233100 and W08SENTUB030). W08SAMRON000 shows low NSE and unsatisfactory water balance for calibration. The balance improves for the validation period however, proving the robustness of the model despite frequent overestimation of winter flow peaks. Automatic calibration lead to poor fit of the model for the catchment with code W08SENRON010, especially for low flows (Figure 56 and Figure 57). For instance, discharge is underestimated from 2003 and overestimated from 2010. The same trend was observed for NAM calibration as well, which suggests that the cause of the errors might be related to data quality. The catchment of the Dijle in Wilsele is also known to be difficult to model (V08DIJ093400). Calibration based on the period between 2002 and 2014 lead to poor results (Figure 58 and Figure 59). Some explanations were already considered in a previous report to explain the mismatch between the observed and simulated discharge data (de Boeck et al., 2010). Firstly, the poor results were attributed to the effect of vegetation in the gauging station, which may influence the measurements and result in a bad q(h)-relationship. Another possible explanation is the fact of a dam construction in Rotselaar in 1994, which would make the relationship no longer valid and the influence of a large sewage plant whose effluent enters upstream the measurement station in the Dijle in Wilsele. Therefore, we prefer to calibrate this catchment based on the most recent years of 2013 until mid-2015 considered more reliable (Figure 60). Remarks on the data: The Barebeek catchment (V08BAR111370) has measured discharge data from 02/01/1997 to 04/11/2004 only. This entire period was used for calibration. The catchment W08SAMRON000 does not have data after 2010. A 13-year calibration period was therefore selected from 1998 to 2010. For V08ZUU233100, most of discharge records were estimated or suspect from August 2005 to May 2006. It is suspect in the summer of 1994 and 2008 as well as 2009 (June to November). Measured flow is also suspiciously constant in the spring of 2003 with a lot of repeated records from April to December 2003. This period seems therefore less trustworthy. Discharge of the Dijle (V08DIJ093400) is measured by a VMM station in Wilsele, where measurements are known to be disturbed by plant growth. Corrections were made by the VMM to account for this effect but with limited accuracy. Data quality is poor or suspect on most years until 2013. Therefore, the rainfall and potential evapotranspiration time series were exceptionally extended in order to have two years and a half of reliable data (2013-mid 2015).

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logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km)

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

11110102-Barebeek, Hofstade (Elewijt)

V08BAR111370

70.0

0.72

0.81

1.4%

-4.3%

1997-2004

9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele

V08DIJ093400

861,4

0.62

0.63

2.5%

-1.6%

2013-2015

Irrelevant given the size of the basin (max 12)

23310102 - Zuunbeek, St Pietersleeuw

V08ZUU233100

64,8

0.49

0.64

0.9%

7.5%

2001-2013

< 2007 : 12 2007 - 2009 : 10 > 2009 : 10

2371-10050 Samme, Ronquieres

W08SAMRON000

134,0

0.44

0.70

5.6%

9.4%

1998-2010

< 2008 : 4 2008 - 2010 : 8 > 2010 : 5

L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres

W08SENRON010

70,4

0.57

0.40

-1.7%

4.9%

2001-2013

< 2002 : 2 2002-2006 : 8 > 2006 : 11

1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize

W08SENTUB030

215,9

0.75

0.76

-2.1%

-1.2%

2001-2013

NSE

Table 21 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Dijle and Zenne basins

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Validation period

11110102-Barebeek, Hofstade

V08BAR111370

70.0

0.72

0.81

1.5%

-4.3%

1997-2004

9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele

V08DIJ093400

861,4

0.62

0.56

-1.3%

-0.9%

1974-2013

23310102 - Zuunbeek, St Pietersleeuw

V08ZUU233100

64,8

0.24

0.64

27.2%

20.7%

1985-2013

2371-10050 Samme, Ronquieres

W08SAMRON000

134,0

0.45

0.72

-3.2%

3.1%

1999-2010

L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres

W08SENRON010

70,4

0.45

-10.4%

-6.5%

1977-2013

1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize

W08SENTUB030

215,9

0.71

0.74

-9.0%

-6.9%

1975-2013

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6.10.2.1 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize (W08SENTUB030) Figure 53 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize(2001-2013)

Figure 54 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize (2001-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 55 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize

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6.10.2.2 L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres Figure 56 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W08SENRON010, station L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres(calibration period)

Figure 57 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W08SENRON010, station L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres (calibration period)

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9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele Figure 58 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele (2002-2013)

Figure 59 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele (2002-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 60 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele, calibration based on 2013 and 2014 only.

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6.11 Demerbekken 6.11.1 Context The Demer basin has an area of 2 334 km². From that, 1 919 km² is located in Flanders, the rest being in Wallonia. It contributes for 10 % of the total surface area of the Scheldt basin. The navigable rivers in this catchment are the Demer and the Albert canal. With 10 gauging stations, 80,3 % of the catchments in the Demer is gauged. These stations are listed in Table 22 and depicted on Figure 61. Figure 61 – Subcatchments and measurement points in the Demer catchment

6.11.2 Model performance Table 22 and Table 23 present general performance statistics for the gauged catchments of the Demer basin for the calibration and validation period. Graphs of the catchments with code V09HER163010 (best model performance) and V09ZWA148120 (worst model performance) are presented below (Figure 62 to Figure 67). For more detailed results on the other catchments, see Annex 11. The catchments with code V09DEM136000, V09HER163010, V09VEL145100 and V09MOT144270 show a good model performance, with values of NSE and LogNSE close or superior to 0.6 for the calibration period (Table 22). However, all of them present a tendency to overestimate the flow during the period 2001-2003 and 2009-2011. Although the statistical results are promising for the calibration and validation of the catchment V09GET152080, the graphical results show a underestimation of flow during the period 2003-2006 and an overestimation between 2010 and 2012. The catchment with code V09HUL147150 presents a general 64

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underestimation of discharge, especially after the year 2010. The results of the statistical parameters do not reach satisfactory values for the calibration period (2001-2013). Nevertheless, the water balance obtained for the validation period improves considerably, suggesting a deviation in more recent discharge measurements. The calibration of the total flow for the catchment V09LOS143300 proved very problematic, possibly due to data quality issues (see remarks below). The behaviour of this catchment was more easily matched by a NAM structure than PDM, which was particularly difficult to calibrate. All indicators are bad for both calibration and validation. This is however a very small catchment. In the case of the catchment with code V09MAN161040, the general behaviour is adequate (NSE=0.60). However, the low flows are not accurately estimated, the LogNSE value is only 0.51 and there is an underestimation of low flows during the years 2005 and 2006, and a overestimation of flows in the most recent years, especially 2009 and 2010. The general behaviour of the model during the calibration period for the catchment V09MOT144270 can be considered as adequate. However, low flows are underestimated in some periods of the validation (from 1990 to 1996), resulting in overall underestimation of cumulated volume over the simulation period (RelErr = - 12.4 %). The model of catchment V09WIN141310 shows overestimation of the flow during high and moderate flow events, resulting in unsatisfactory NSE coefficient values. Low flows are correctly modelled however in both calibration and validation periods. The increased error in the validation period is caused by a large overestimation of extreme peak flow in 1998. The NSE and relative error show poor model performance for V09ZWA148120 for both the calibration and validation periods. Despite high log NSE, this model does not reach the acceptable threshold and the low flows are not very well represented. This catchment caused similar problem for NAM calibration. Because of this, and the presence of several holes in the observed discharge time series make believe that unsatisfactory statistics are due to the data poor quality. Remarks on the data: Some catchments are calibrated for a different period than usual (2001-2013). Years 2011-2013 have been deleted from the simulation of the catchment V09DEM136000 due unreliable (suspiciously high) measured base flow. The catchment V09LOS143300 has portions of discharge measurements with moderate to poor quality, or missing values from August 2010, resulting in the years 1997-2010 being used for calibration. Note that data in 2001 and before is unchecked and therefore more uncertain. The catchment V09MAN161040 does not have data available from the beginning of 2011 and between 11/05/2003-31/12/2004, so the calibration period 1998-2010 has been used. In the case of the Herk in Kermt/Spalbeek (V09HER163010), data is checked from 2002 until 2016, with the exception of 2010. The calibration period is therefore chosen from 2003 to 2013 in order to ensure maximum reliability during the calibration. The years before are used for validation nevertheless. There is no observed discharge data for V09MOT144270 after 2010. High discharge values are estimations above 3 m3/s from 2000 to 2001 included. Measurements start to be unstable in 2008 and it is unchecked before 1997, so the period chosen for calibration is 1997-2007. Validation can be performed using the station located in Tielt, slightly upstream (station L09_14A with a surface area of approximatively 26.6 km2). In reference to the catchment V09ZWA148120, there is no discharge data in Lummen (Zwartebeek) between 1997 and 2001. Moreover values are missing or suspect from 2008 on. Therefore, calibration period is selected between 2001 and 2008 to ensure continuous reliable observations. Note that there is uncertainty associated with a correction for the effect of plant growth on observed discharge (discharge was corrected to be lower than actual measurements in the summer of 2002 and 2003).

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V09HUL147150 refers to the basin of the Zwart Water river, gauged in Molenstede (L09_147). Data is checked with good quality since 2002. Note that the second half of 2007 is estimated. For the Zwartebeek discharge in Lummen (V09ZWA148120), values are suspect for most of 2011 and less than good quality starting April 2012. Therefore the calibration period is limited to 2001-2008. Table 22 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Demer basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km)

13610102 - Demer; Hasselt

V09DEM136000

255,8

0.64

0.74

-0.1%

1.3%

1998-2010

15210102 - Gete; Halen

V09GET152080

800,4

0.68

0.61

0.7%

7.2

2001-2013

Irrelevant given the size of the catchment (max 10)

16310102 - Herk, Kermt (Spalbeek)

V09HER163010

274,6

0.67

0.64

-2.1%

3.5%

2003-2012

14710102 - Zwart Water (affluent of De Hulpe); Molenstede

V09HUL147150

80,1

0.48

0.51

-10.3%

-16.4%

2001-2013

14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal

V09LOS143300

15,2

-1.32

0.22

73.9%

51.8%

1997-2010

< 2000 : 8 >= 2000 : 4

16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen

V09MAN161040

103,1

0.60

0.3%

7.0%

1998-2010

14410102 - Motte; Rillaar

V09MOT144270

33,6

0.63

0.60

1.3%

-7.4%

1995-2007

14510102 - Velp; Ransberg

V09VEL145100

96,8

0.56

0.74

1.0%

-1.2%

2001-2013

141 - Rotselaar ; Winge

V09WIN141310

64,7

0.49

0.60

3.6%

3.5%

2001-2013

< 2001 : 10 >= 2001 : 2

14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen

V09ZWA148120

96,5

0.72

0.58

2.7%

0.1%

2001-2008

Table 23 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Demer basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr (%)

VolBias (%)

Validation period

13610102 - Demer; Hasselt

V09DEM136000

255,8

0.52

0.65

8.6%

9.3%

1997-2013

15210102 - Gete; Halen

V09GET152080

800,4

0.429

0.699

6.0%

6.6%

1969-2012

16310102 - Herk, Kermt

V09HER163010

274,6

0.64

0.589

8.6%

8.7%

1977-2013

14710102 - De Hulpe; Molenstede

V09HUL147150

80,1

0..57

0.59

0.7%

-6.7%

1987-2013

14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal

V09LOS143300

15,2

-1.506

0.243

63.5%

51.5%

1987-2012

16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen

V09MAN161040

103,1

0.656

0.637

2.8%

5.2%

1984-2009

14A - Motte; Tielt

V09MOT14A100

33,6

0.482

0.474

-12.4%

-14.4%

2009-2013

14510102 - Velp; Ransberg

V09VEL145100

96,8

0.47

0.72

1.2%

6.0%

1969-2013

141 - Rotselaar ; Winge

V09WIN141310

64,7

0.19

0.61

5.8%

6.8%

1987-2013

14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen

V09ZWA148120

96,5

0.559

0.467

-9.8%

-8.9%

1983-2013

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16310102 - Herk, Kermt (V09HER163010) Figure 62 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt (2001-2013)

Figure 63 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt (2001-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 64 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt

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14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen (V09ZWA148120) Figure 65 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen (2001-2007)

Figure 66 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen (2001-2007)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 67 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen

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6.12 Netebekken 6.12.1 Context The Nete catchment reaches over 1 673 km² and is located in North-East of Flanders. It can be divided into two catchments corresponding to the main rivers: Kleine Nete and Grote Nete. These two rivers flow together in Lier, where they coincide in the Beneden-Nete. This flows together with the Dijle to become the Rupel. The Nete basin accounts for 8 % of the total surface area of the Scheldt basin. There are 5 gauging stations used for calibration of the rainfall-runoff models, covering 63 % of the Nete catchment surface area. Figure 68 – Subcatchments and measure points for the Nete basin

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6.12.2 Model performance Table 24 and Table 25 present general performance statistics for the gauged catchments of the Nete basin. Graphs of simulations of the catchments with code V10KNE052000 (best model performance) and V10WIM082050 (worst model performance) are presented below (Figure 69 to Figure 74). For more detailed results on the other subcatchments is referred to Annex 12. The model performance is good for the calibration period for most of the gauged subcatchments of the Nete basin, with NSE and Log NSE values above 0.70 and relative error below ±3% (V10GLA086020, V10GNE076999, V10KNE052000). For these three catchments, performance remains satisfactory in the validation period, even if goodness-of-fit statistic are significantly worse for V10GLA086020. Even if goodness-of-fit statistics are satisfactory, some of the difficulties were faced when calibrating the water courses of the Nete basin that can be explained by the known abundant vegetation, which causes changes in the q(h) relationships at the gauging station. This leads to more uncertainties in the gauged discharges. In the case of V10GLA086020 and V10GNE076999, there is tendency to underestimate low flows. The relative error reaches -14.3% during validation years of V10GLA086020. These increased discrepancies are mostly related to unusually low discharge measured in 1990, most likely from inaccurate measurements. This problem was also faced when calibrating the NAM model, thus comforting the theory of disturbances in the measurement data. The agreement between flow simulation and observation is not as good for the catchment V10MOP062140 as for the three catchments listed above, but this is mostly related to poor modelling of moderate and high flows from 2005 to 2010. Measurements show unusual behaviour during this period. The low flows are satisfactorily modelled however (log NSE = 0.67). The water balance is moderate for the calibration period but because rather poor for the validation period (RelErr = 14.5%). Flow peaks are indeed often overestimated, resulting in an overestimation of volumes. NSE is unsatisfactory for the catchment with code V10WIM082050, but log NSE is reasonable for the calibration and especially validation period (Table 24 and Table 25). However, except for some years where the low flow is overestimated (i.e. 1999, 2000), the general model performance for low flows can be considered as acceptable. Moreover, the influence of this subcatchment on the larger Scheldt water allocation model is quite low (65.7 km2 only). Remarks on the data: Some catchments are calibrated for different periods than the one normally used (2001-2013). The gauging station 8610102 - Grote Laak in Vorst (V10GLA086020) does not have discharge data from 2008 and during the years 1997 and 1998, so that the period selected for the calibration of this catchment is shorter (1999-2007). The calibration period for the catchment V10GNE076999 is 2003-2013 since there is not data available in 2002. The catchment with code V10MOP062140 does not have data from 23/04/2010 to 11/10/2011 and from 01/01/2004 to 31/12/2006. Rainfall was recorded in Houthulst, closest to the catchment, starting in June 2008 only. Rainfall data before then is therefore less reliable. A continuous period of 13 is thus used from 1991 to 2003. According to the gauging station 8210102 – Wiekevorst (V10WIM082050), the calibration period only lasts until the year 2007 due to unavailability of discharge data.

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Table 24 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Nete basin

RelErr

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

Approx. distance to rain gauge over calibration period (km)

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

8610102 - Grote Laak, Vorst

V10GLA086020

62,6

0.772

0.774

-0.4%

-3.5%

1999-2007

7610102 Grote Nete/Geel Zammel

V10GNE076999

243,5

0.761

0.744

-3.3%

0.2%

2003-2013

5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk

V10KNE052000

584,7

0.784

0.801

-0.4%

0.0%

2001-2013

10 (large basin)

6210102 - Molenbeek, Pulle

V10MOP062140

77,3

0.453

0.672

2.6%

1997-2013

< 2001 : 8 >= 2001 : 6 2010 : 12

8210102 - Wiekevorst

V10WIM082050

65,7

0.142

0.603

1.4%

-7.9%

1995-2007

< 2008 :8 >= 2008 :2

NSE

logNSE

Table 25 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Nete basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr

VolBias (%)

Validation period

8610102 - Grote Laak, Vorst

V10GLA086020

62,6

0.614

0.452

-14.3%

-10.6%

1986-2007

7610102 Grote Nete/Geel Zammel

V10GNE076999

243,5

0.744

0.705

-6.3%

-3.4%

1985-2013

5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk

V10KNE052000

584,7

0.798

0.834

-2.2%

-0.9%

1983-2013

6210102 - Molenbeek, Pulle

V10MOP062140

77,3

0.49

0.585

17.5%

10.6%

1987-2013

8210102 - Wiekevorst

V10WIM082050

65,7

0.015

0.556

14.5%

1.2%

1990-2007

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5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk (V10KNE052000) Figure 69 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V10KNE052000, station 5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk (2001-2013)

Figure 70 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V10KNE052000, station 5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk (2001-2013)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 71 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events

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8210102 - Wiekevorst (V10WIM082050) Figure 72 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 – Wiekevorst (1995-2007)

Figure 73 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m³] on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 – Wiekevorst (1995-2007)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 74 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m³/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 – Wiekevorst

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6.13 Maasbekken 6.13.1 Context The Meuse basin is the second biggest hydrographic district of Belgium (about 20.450 km² in Visé). The Meuse river has its source in France in Pouilly-en Bassigny and enters Belgium in Agimont. The gauging station of Chooz, located in France, is the closest to the Walloon border. The main tributaries of the Walloon Meuse are the Sambre (about 2.700 km²), meeting the Meuse in Namur, and the Ourthe (about 3.600 km²) in Liège. Figure 1 (on the next page) shows a map of the Meuse basin in Wallonia, with a first selection of flow measuring stations (yellow dots) and their corresponding catchments. The catchment delineation was based on the GIS resources of the Walloon region (SPW). The surface area calculated based on these polygons matches closely the data published by SPW on the “Infocrue” website for each catchment (when available). Seven stations were used to calibrate the different tributaries (Table 1). Chooz station (located in France) is considered to measure the entering flow of the Meuse at the French border, while Solre station is recording the entering flow for the Sambre. The station in Profondeville only provides water level measurements and will be used as control. The station in Amay will also be used as downstream control. A simulated time series for Amay can be constructed, aggregating together all simulation results from the 5 catchments upstream Amay ('F11MAA8702', 'W11SAM7319', 'W11MEH5820', 'W11HOY5990') and ungauged zone upstream Amay ('W11MAA0030'). Figure 75 – Subcatchments and measure points for the Meuse basin

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6.13.2 Model performance Table 26 and Table 27 present the general performance statistics for the gauged catchments of the Nete basin. Graphs of simulations of the catchments with code W11OUR5805 (best model performance) and W11HOY5990 (worst model performance) are presented below (Figure 76 to Figure 81Figure 69). For more detailed results on the other subcatchments is referred to Annex 13. Table 26 – Overview of calibration results for gauged catchments on the Meuse basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr

VolBias (%)

Calibration period

Chooz, Meuse

F11MAA8702

10120

0,67

0,62

-3,9%

-5,9%

2002 – 2013

Moelingen, Berwijn

W11BER551010

128

0,63

0,65

-0,6%

-6,3%

1994- 2006

Marchin, Hoyoux

W11HOY5990

242

0,29

0,63

-1,8%

-1,1%

2001 – 2013

Wanze, Mehaigne

W11MEH5820

12585

0,74

0,66

-3,2%

-2,2%

2004 – 2013

Angleur, Ourthe

W11OUR5805

3607

0,84

0,85

-0,3%

-1,0%

2001 – 2013

Salzinne, Sambre

W11SAM7319

2636

0,80

0,77

0,0%

-3,4%

2007 - 2012

Table 27 – Overview of validation results for gauged catchments on the Meuse basin

Gauging station

Catchment code

Area (km²)

NSE

logNSE

RelErr

VolBias (%)

Validation period

Chooz, Meuse

F11MAA8702

10120

0,70

0,64

-7,2%

-7,8%

1990 – 2013

Moelingen, Berwijn

W11BER551010

128

0,53

0,31

5,2%

2,2%

1992 - 2013

Marchin, Hoyoux

W11HOY5990

242

0,26

0,63

-0,3%

-0,4%

2001 - 2013

Wanze, Mehaigne

W11MEH5820

12585

0,74

0,67

-9,0%

-5,5%

2001 - 2013

Angleur, Ourthe

W11OUR5805

3607

0,81

0,86

0,4%

0,1%

1974 - 2013

Salzinne, Sambre

W11SAM7319

2636

0,77

0,76

-1,3%

-7,9%

2007 - 2013

For several subcatchments, limited time series of observed discharge are available. No validation is therefore possible on distinct years of data for those stations. This is the case for W11HOY5990, W11MEH5820 and W11SAM7319. Control stations downstream (Profondeville and Amay) are thus useful to validate the models of the subcatchments more upstream.

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Angleur, Ourthe Figure 76 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis(calibration period)

Figure 77 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 78 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis

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Marchin, Hoyoux Figure 79 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin(calibration period)

Figure 80 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 81 – Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin

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7 Summary As stated before, the comprehensive results for each of the calibrated subcatchments, are attached from Annex 3 to Annex 13. In these Annexes the calibration summary, graphs and statistics are listed.

7.1 Graphical overview of the model performance To give a quick overview of the overall result for the calibrated hydrological NAM models, a geographical summary is given in Annex 14 and Annex 15. Based on the statistics for each of the NAM models, a reclassification is performed to result in a quotation for the overall model performance. This quotation is then incorporated in a general map for the study area.

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

8 Conclusions and recommendations The water balance model of the Scheldt basin will be used in order to perform low flow forecasts and calculate climate change scenarios. The goal of this subtask of the project ‘Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin’, is to define the most appropriate hydrological models for the water balance model of the Scheldt basin in order to meet this prerequisite. Therefore, different hydrological models for each of the subcatchments in the study area are set up and evaluated on their appropriateness for low flow forecasting and climate change scenarios. The regarded models are NAM (©DHI), PDM (©Innovyze), VHM (©Willems, P.) and Wetspa (©VUB). This subreport covers the calibration and evaluation of the PDM models, which are part of the InfoWorks software package (Innovyze). Hydrological PDM models for the gauged catchments (i.e. catchments upstream of a gauging station) were calibrated with the main focus on low flows. This calibration is done using an automatic optimization procedure followed by a visual control. During the optimization routine, the best parameter set is selected for each catchment based on 2 criteria: (1) absolute error on cumulated total flow at each time step, and (2) logarithmic Nash-Sutcliff efficiency. The first criterion aims to model the global flow pattern, the latter focuses mainly on the low flows. Overall, the performance of the PDM models is equivalent to the NAM models calibrated previously (Sub report 4.2). For some subcatchments, the PDM model goodness-of-fit is much worse than NAM while for others, the flexibility of the PDM model structure seem to allow better simulation of the total flow. As the final performance of the water balance model is directly dependent on its hydrological input, it is important to have insight in the performance of these hydrological input models. This is also the case when using the hydrological (e.g. PDM) models as input for simulations with the water balance model. The summarized results for each of the gauged subcatchments within the study area, allow the user to get insight in the performance of the PDM model for each of the involved subcatchments. Based on this information and the evaluation of the NAM, VHM and Wetspa models, the user will be able to make a well-grounded decision on which model to use for the considered objective. Therefore, this summarizing report should be consulted by any user applying the corresponding PDM models. In this way, the user gains insight in the uncertainties and performance of the hydrological models for each of the considered subcatchments.

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9 References DHI. 2009. MIKE 11, A Modelling System for Rivers and Channels, Reference Manual. DHI Water & Environment, Horsholm, Denmark. IMDC (Franken, T.; Smets, S.; Pereira, F.; Mostaert, F.), 2010. Bijstand modelinstrumentarium hydrologie: Opmaak toolbox hydrologische modellering: Gebruikershandleiding. Versie 2_0. WL Rapporten, 706_15b. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium en IMDC: Antwerpen, België Kalyanmoy Deb, Amrit Pratap, Sameer Agarwal, and T. Meyarivan. 2002. A Fast Elitist Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm: NSGA-II. IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation, 6(2):182 - 197, April 2002. Krause, P.; Boyle, D.P. and Bäse F. 2005. Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment, Advances in Geosciences, 5, 89–97. Liu,Y. and De Smedt, F. 2004. WetSpa Extension, A GIS-based Hydrologic Model for Flood Prediction and Watershed Management, Documentation and User Manual, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 126p. Madsen, H. 2000. Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall–runoff model using multiple objectives, DHI Water & Environment, Agern Alle ´ 11, DK-2970 Hørsholm, Denmark. Maroy, E.; Michielsen, S.; Velez, C.; Pereira, F.; Nossent, J.; Mostaert, F. (2021). Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin: Sub report 4-2 – Developing a rainfall-runoff model of the Meuse – NAM Meuse. Version 1.1. FHR Reports, 00_162_4-2. Flanders Hydraulics Research: Antwerp , Belgium. Michielsen, S.; Degrande, L.; Elyahyioui, J.; Vereycken, K.; Pereira, F.; Vanderkimpen, P.; Mostaert, F. (2021). Modellering van waterbeschikbaarheid en waterallocatiestrategieën in het Scheldestroomgebied: Deelrapport 1 – Verbeteren van het modelinstrumentarium. Versie 1.1. WL Rapporten, 00_162_1. Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Antwerpen. Moore, R.J., 2007. The PDM rainfal-runoff model, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(1), 483-499. Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V., 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models, Part I - A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290. Tran, Q. Willems, P.; Pereira, F.; Nossent J; Mostaert, F. (2021). Effect of climate change on the hydrological regime of navigable water courses in Belgium: Sub report 7 – Development of a framework for flexible hydrological modelling. Version 1.1. FHR Reports, 00_130_7. Flanders Hydraulics Research: Antwerp, Belgium. Tran, Q. Willems, P.; Pereira, F.; Nossent J; Mostaert, F. (2021). Effect of climate change on the hydrological regime of navigable water courses in Belgium: Sub report 8 – Implementation and testing of a framework for flexible hydrological modelling. Version 1.1. FHR Reports, 00_130_8. Flanders Hydraulics Research: Antwerp, Belgium. Vansteenkiste, T.; Pereira, F.; Willems, P. and Mostaert, F., 2011. Effect of climate change on the hydrological regime of navigable water courses in Belgium: Subreport 2 – Climate change impact analysis by conceptual models. WL Rapporten, project 706_18, Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium & KU Leuven, December 2011, 57p Halcrow, HR Wallingford and Centre for Ecology & Hydrology , ISIS PDM User Manual, 2000. WL (2006). Opmaak van een Mike 11 model van de IJzer. 44p.

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Annexe 1 List of optimized parameters for gauged catchments

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Catchment F01IJZ468000 V01HAN488180 V01IEP495080 V01KEM492060 V01MAR496120 V01POP491030 V01SSV499140 V02EDE442120 V02HER426010 V02KER422030 V02RIV425020 V03POE446000 V04MOL036110 V04MOM037100 F05LEI386001 V05HEU403210 V05MAN401230 F06BOS325001 V06MAA347160 V06ZWA342190 W06RHOL54100 V07BEL285070 V07MAR289015 V07MOE282100 V07MOG288020 W07DENLES004 V08BAR111370 A2

AreaSqM bpareto bevaporation cmin cmax CKBF CK1 CK2 bdrainage kdrainage PDM.TG 393007000 0.15 2 0.3 153 300 40 24 1 12571 3 78558940 0.2 2 10 236 300 15 21 1 11629 7 63423128 0.15 2 5 391 300 42 22 1 19149 2 73892930 0.365 2 8.1 192 300 27 31 1 11000 3.3 76136621 0.3 2 14 202 300 26 31 1 17197 7 84868207 0.09 1 11 281 300 32 33 1 36123 5 16095000 0.32 2 8 309 300 33 38 1 27441 7 45489177 0.11 2 8.38 199 300 36 27 1 21988 5.7 77272201 0.1 2 8.8 274 300 34 29 1 25656 6.9 62718738 0.169 1.4 10 232 300 41 27 1 18141 0.71 63980423 0.12 2 9.8 240 300 31 38 1 17086 1.9 106836849 0.11 2 15 159 300 43 29 1 11807 3 32561957 0.12 2 6.3 273 300 30 35 1 14243 2 67301328 0.12 2 10 319 300 33 28 1 12666 4.3 2981779554 0.25 2 7.3 394 300 40.7 32.5 1 11466 3.4 91912331 0.236 2 3.2 167 300 34 30 1 12742 7 258441818 0.279 2 8.6 273 300 33 35 1 16690 1.3 5217586196 0.12 2 8.5 439 300 42 29 1 17574 0.4 48678191 0.05 2 8.3 325 300 14 33 1 24980 5 112117540 0.4 2 9 365 300 34 19 1 9327 6 161928446 0.1 2 8.3 410 300 35 25 1.1 52000 5.1 88641710 0.12 2 6.6 441 300 39 15 1 22169 3.9 173908791 0.125 2 9.7 297 300 8.3 48 1 24055 3.8 46367171 0.31 2 9.8 272 300 25 39 1 11804 2.6 23093628 0.035 2 7.5 250 300 32 16 1 37694 3.7 511840662 0.1 2 9 422 300 46 32 1 31203 4.6 70079800 0.23 2 9.7 414 300 48 31 1 12738 3.7 WL2021R00_162_4-3

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V08DIJ093400 V08ZUU233100 W08SAMRON000 W08SENRON010 W08SENTUB030 V09DEM136000 V09GET152080 V09HER163010 V09HUL147150 V09LOS143300 V09MAN161040 V09MOT144270 V09VEL145100 V09VEL145100 V09WIN141310 V09ZWA148120 V10GLA086020 V10GNE076999 V10KNE052000 V10MOP062140 V10WIM082050 F11MAA8702 W11BER551010 W11HOY5990 W11MEH5820 W11OUR5805 W11SAM7319

Final version

861413000 64771005 134097000 70364773 215911078 255882000 800395376 274602221 80130245 15176294 103081000 33590217 96801128 96801128 64739169 96514800 62621236 359885327 584669408 77319091 65701200 10120000000 128000000 242000000 355800000 3607000000 2636000000

0.12 0.12 0.12 0.1 0.17 0.152 0.08 0.12 0.2 0.06 0.22 0.17 0.12 0.12 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.24 0.26 0.12 0.1 0.37 0.35 0.075 0.08 0.154 0.2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2

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10 9.9 9.6 10 3 8.6 10 9.6 2 7 6.33 8.9 9.8 9.8 8 7.9 9 5.8 5.2 6.1 6.5 0.7 3.8 5.6 6.8 1.76 4.7

886 346 471 489 356 604 542 534 538 1000 568 423 370 348 620 776 456 778 431 459 443 452 323 510 265 236 403

300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

28 33 19 32 28 20 36 35 20 43 33 23 32 26 30 31 19 42 40 45 30 43 21 30 28 47 45

26 30 27 25 39 30 35 36 36 45 23 30 35 37 25 37 45 46 35 44 38 41 43 38 35 43 36

1 1 1 1 1 1 1.02 1 0.94 0.85 1 1 1 1 1.03 1 1 1 1 1 0.95 1 1 1 1 1 1

27900 32620 17557 26851 20181 16561 21000 24477 6300 45000 10044 10577 25000 22264 37000 16935 6113 12501 10171 20400 16000 16884 9015 16202 17236 6081 18561

7 6.2 6.5 4.3 1 4.4 3.8 6 3 5 3 3.4 4.8 4.8 6 7.9 1.4 0.3 5.7 10 6.5 1 1.9 0.3 3.7 4 1.1

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 2 List of transferred parameters for ungauged catchments

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Catchment

Associated gauged catchment

Area (m²)

F01YSE468000

F01IJZ468000

F05AAA000010

rain fraction

bpareto

bevap

cmin

cmax

CKBF

361120000

1.0

0.15

153

36.3

F05LEI386999

248452728

1.0

0.25

394

300

F05AAA571000

F05LEI386999

374113103

1.0

0.25

394

F05BEC386023

F05LEI386999

80086039

1.0

0.25

F05BEC386025

F05LEI386999

68930969

1.0

0.25

F05BOU386005

F05LEI386999

255392628

1.0

0.25

F05CLA386017

F05LEI386999

36547273

1.0

F05CLA386020

F05LEI386999

226006473

1.0

F05DEU386040

F05LEI386999

448818370

F05DEU386050

F05LEI386999

F05DEU386060

bdrainage

kdrainage

PDM.TG

23.7

12571

35.4

24.6

11466

300

36.2

23.8

11466

394

300

31.7

28.3

11466

394

300

31.5

28.5

11466

394

300

34.1

25.9

11466

0.25

394

300

30.1

29.9

11466

0.25

394

300

33.7

26.3

11466

1.0

0.25

394

300

37.1

22.9

11466

74083951

1.0

0.25

394

300

32.1

27.9

11466

F05LEI386999

116669136

1.0

0.25

394

300

33.6

26.4

11466

F05DEU386080

F05LEI386999

57192180

1.0

0.25

394

300

30.9

29.1

11466

F05DEU386090

F05LEI386999

12829199

1.0

0.25

394

300

28.8

31.2

11466

F05DEU386110

F05LEI386999

16919150

1.0

0.25

394

300

29.9

30.1

11466

F05DEU386120

F05LEI386999

39450392

1.0

0.25

394

300

30.2

29.8

11466

F05DEU386130

F05LEI386999

21724484

1.0

0.25

394

300

29.6

30.4

11466

F05DEU386140

F05LEI386999

7480581

1.0

0.25

394

300

28.5

31.5

11466

F05DEU386150

F05LEI386999

39193251

1.0

0.25

394

300

29.9

30.1

11466

F05DEU386160

F05LEI386999

27005232

1.0

0.25

394

300

29.7

30.3

11466

F05HEM000020

F05LEI386999

134010959

1.0

0.25

394

300

33.6

26.4

11466

F05LAW386018

F05LEI386999

102249474

1.0

0.25

394

300

31.0

29.0

11466

F05LAW386030

F05LEI386999

188699853

1.0

0.25

394

300

33.5

26.5

11466

F05LOI386035

F05LEI386999

113093218

1.0

0.25

394

300

32.1

27.9

11466

F05LYS386000

F05LEI386999

375288119

1.0

0.25

394

300

35.8

24.2

11466

F05LYS386010

F05LEI386999

75860338

1.0

0.25

394

300

31.9

28.1

11466

F05LYS386015

F05LEI386999

28126242

1.0

0.25

394

300

30.2

29.8

11466

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

CK1

CK2

tdly

qconst

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

F05LYS386115

F05LEI386999

168458564

1.0

0.25

394

300

33.5

26.5

11466

F05MAR386070

F05LEI386999

200520118

1.0

0.25

394

300

34.4

25.6

11466

F05MAR386100

F05LEI386999

26635692

1.0

0.25

394

300

29.6

30.4

11466

F06BOS325000

F06BOS325001

775406341

1.0

0.12

439

300

42.4

17.6

17574

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 3 Ijzer CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "F01IJZ468000" (IJZER) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment F01IJZ468000 (IJzer)

Figure 2: Annual cumulated discharge (red) and scaled precipitation (blue) according to runoff ratio (total Q/total P) and cumulative potential evapotranspiration (green) on catchment F01IJZ468000 (IJzer)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

F01IJZ468000

subcatchment_area [m²]

393007000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.15), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 0.3), ('cmax', 153.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 40.0), ('CK2', 24.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 12571.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2005 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.682

0.482

0.653

NS_log

0.671

-0.062

0.708

NS_rel

0.437

0.654

0.591

RelErr

-2.3 %

11.6 %

-16.5 %

VolBias

-0.051

0.144

-0.22

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.696

0.459

0.747

NS_log

0.617

-0.081

0.719

NS_rel

0.174

0.513

0.427

RelErr

9.3 %

-5.4 %

2.5 %

VolBias

0.041

-0.006

-0.06

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe(calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe (calibration period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe (validation period)

A10

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A11

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe

Figure 10: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe

A12

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01HAN488180" (IJZER) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V01HAN488180 (IJzer)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A13

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V01HAN488180

subcatchment_area [m²]

78558940

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.2), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 10.0), ('cmax', 236.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 15.0), ('CK2', 21.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 11629.0), ('PDM.TG', 7.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.619

0.522

0.566

NS_log

0.784

0.614

0.657

NS_rel

0.743

0.757

0.786

RelErr

0.6 %

-4.3 %

3.0 %

VolBias

0.003

-0.083

0.001

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A14

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.626

0.513

0.567

NS_log

0.782

0.572

0.699

NS_rel

0.721

0.734

0.767

RelErr

2.4 %

-0.6 %

3.5 %

VolBias

0.017

-0.049

0.013

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Krekelbeek; Kortemark (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Krekelbeek; Kortemark (calibration period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A15

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Krekelbeek; Kortemark (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Krekelbeek; Kortemark (validation period)

A16

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01HAN488180, station 48810102 - Krekelbeek; Kortemark

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A17

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01IEP495080" (IJZER) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V01IEP495080 (IJzer)

A18

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V01IEP495080

subcatchment_area [m²]

63423128

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.15), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 5.0), ('cmax', 391.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 42.0), ('CK2', 22.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 19149.0), ('PDM.TG', 2.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1996 - 2007)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.213

0.566

-0.495

NS_log

0.562

0.434

0.478

NS_rel

0.399

0.491

0.363

RelErr

9.8 %

-8.0 %

19.1 %

VolBias

0.121

-0.047

0.222

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.247

0.567

-0.595

NS_log

0.564

0.307

0.358

NS_rel

-3.342

-11.984

0.189

RelErr

-17.0 %

-15.9 %

-16.4 %

VolBias

-0.059

-0.1

-0.018

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A19

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote (calibration period)

A20

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A21

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote

A22

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01IEP495080, station 49510102 - Ieperlee; Zuidschote

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A23

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01KEM492060" (IJZER) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V01KEM492060 (IJzer)

A24

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V01KEM492060

subcatchment_area [m²]

73892930

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.36), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.1), ('cmax', 192.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 27.0), ('CK2', 31.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 11000.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.3), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.58

0.267

0.594

NS_log

0.521

0.195

0.396

NS_rel

-20.39

-14.725

-0.045

RelErr

-0.3 %

17.8 %

-6.3 %

VolBias

-0.026

-0.169

-0.074

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.624

0.294

0.667

NS_log

0.566

0.256

0.59

NS_rel

-9.468

-8.476

0.405

RelErr

9.9 %

23.6 %

0.3 %

VolBias

0.04

-0.032

-0.031

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A25

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01KEM492060, station 49270102 -Kemmelbeek; Boezinge (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01KEM492060, station 49270102 -Kemmelbeek; Boezinge (calibration period)

A26

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01KEM492060, station 49270102 -Kemmelbeek; Boezinge (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01KEM492060, station 49270102 -Kemmelbeek; Boezinge (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A27

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01KEM492060, station 49270102 -Kemmelbeek; Boezinge

A28

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01MAR496120" (IJZER) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V01MAR496120 (IJzer)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A29

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V01MAR496120

subcatchment_area [m²]

76136621

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.3), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 14.0), ('cmax', 202.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 26.0), ('CK2', 31.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 17197.0), ('PDM.TG', 7.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.684

0.537

0.647

NS_log

0.683

0.386

0.687

NS_rel

-0.514

-0.33

0.333

RelErr

-4.1 %

-5.5 %

-2.2 %

VolBias

0.064

0.061

0.049

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A30

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.651

0.524

0.607

NS_log

0.644

0.446

0.665

NS_rel

-7.061

-0.786

-0.69

RelErr

7.3 %

-2.0 %

5.1 %

VolBias

0.086

0.032

0.062

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01MAR496120, station 49610102 - St. Jansbeek; Merkem (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01MAR496120, station 49610102 - St. Jansbeek; Merkem (calibration period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A31

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01MAR496120, station 49610102 - St. Jansbeek; Merkem (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01MAR496120, station 49610102 - St. Jansbeek; Merkem (validation period)

A32

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01MAR496120, station 49610102 - St. Jansbeek; Merkem

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A33

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01POP491030" (IJZER) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V01POP491030 (IJzer)

A34

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V01POP491030

subcatchment_area [m²]

84868207

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.09), ('bevaporation', 1.0), ('cmin', 11.0), ('cmax', 281.0), ('CKBF', 1.0), ('CK1', 32.0), ('CK2', 33.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 36123.0), ('PDM.TG', 5.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2008)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.587

0.612

0.667

NS_log

0.629

0.081

0.615

NS_rel

-0.307

0.107

0.712

RelErr

-2.2 %

8.1 %

-4.0 %

VolBias

0.003

0.162

-0.063

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.434

0.511

0.489

NS_log

0.66

0.063

0.596

NS_rel

-0.009

0.208

0.626

RelErr

-2.6 %

11.6 %

-7.0 %

VolBias

0.055

0.186

-0.01

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A35

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01POP491030, station 49110102-Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01POP491030, station 49110102-Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren (calibration period)

A36

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01POP491030, station 49110102-Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01POP491030, station 49110102-Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A37

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01POP491030, station 49110102-Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchmentV01POP491030, station 49110102-Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren

A38

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01POP491030, station 49110102-Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren

Figure 10: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01POP491030, station 49110102-Poperingevaart; Oostvleteren

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A39

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V01SSV499140 " (IJZER) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V01SSV499140 (IJzer)

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WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V01SSV499140

subcatchment_area [m²]

16095000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.32), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.0), ('cmax', 309.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 33.0), ('CK2', 38.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 27441.0), ('PDM.TG', 7.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1993 - 2005)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.645

0.485

0.669

NS_log

0.675

0.386

0.674

NS_rel

0.491

0.729

0.691

RelErr

-3.6 %

-5.2 %

-5.8 %

VolBias

-0.046

-0.111

-0.046

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.638

0.452

0.68

NS_log

0.672

0.455

0.653

NS_rel

0.457

0.697

0.371

RelErr

-4.2 %

-19.9 %

-2.4 %

VolBias

-0.048

-0.171

-0.03

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A41

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01SSV499140, station 49910102 - Steenbeek; Merkem (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01SSV499140, station 49910102 - Steenbeek; Merkem (calibration period)

A42

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V01SSV499140, station 49910102 - Steenbeek; Merkem (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V01SSV499140, station 49910102 - Steenbeek; Merkem (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A43

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01SSV499140, station 49910102 - Steenbeek; Merkem

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V01SSV499140, station 49910102 - Steenbeek; Merkem

A44

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 4 Brugse Polders CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V02EDE442120" (BRUGSE POLDERS) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V02EDE442120 (Brugse Polders)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A45

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V02EDE442120

subcatchment_area [m²]

45489177

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.11), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.38), ('cmax', 199.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 36.0), ('CK2', 27.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 21988.0), ('PDM.TG', 5.7), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.727

0.544

0.779

NS_log

0.72

0.541

0.686

NS_rel

-13.744

-2.196

0.798

RelErr

0.0 %

-9.1 %

-1.1 %

VolBias

0.007

-0.137

-0.025

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A46

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.67

0.556

0.639

NS_log

0.679

0.3

0.588

NS_rel

-10.067

-4.879

0.081

RelErr

-0.8 %

1.1 %

-1.5 %

VolBias

0.004

-0.067

-0.015

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 - Maldegem (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 - Maldegem (calibration period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A47

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 - Maldegem (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 - Maldegem (validation period)

A48

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02EDE442120, station 44210102 - Maldegem

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A49

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V02HER426010" (BRUGSE POLDERS) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V02HER426010 (Brugse Polders)

A50

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V02HER426010

subcatchment_area [m²]

77272201

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.1), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.8), ('cmax', 274.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 34.0), ('CK2', 29.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 25656.0), ('PDM.TG', 6.9), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.579

0.502

0.543

NS_log

0.761

0.374

0.78

NS_rel

0.604

0.743

0.536

RelErr

5.5 %

-2.6 %

9.5 %

VolBias

0.099

0.023

0.129

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.609

0.508

0.552

NS_log

0.754

0.442

0.737

NS_rel

0.153

0.074

0.581

RelErr

3.7 %

5.2 %

5.6 %

VolBias

0.056

0.032

0.076

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02HER426010, station 42610102 - Hertsbergebeek; Oostkamp

A54

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V02KER422030" (BRUGSE POLDERS) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V02KER422030 (Brugse Polders)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A55

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V02KER422030

subcatchment_area [m²]

62718738

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.17), ('bevaporation', 1.4), ('cmin', 10.0), ('cmax', 232.0), ('CKBF', 1.0), ('CK1', 41.0), ('CK2', 27.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 18141.0), ('PDM.TG', 0.71), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1995 - 2007)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.606

0.487

0.606

NS_log

0.706

0.431

0.58

NS_rel

-0.784

0.744

-9.89

RelErr

-1.5 %

0.6 %

-3.8 %

VolBias

0.048

0.113

0.014

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A56

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.588

0.472

0.558

NS_log

0.669

0.285

0.545

NS_rel

-0.571

0.01

-5.029

RelErr

-5.9 %

7.6 %

-7.3 %

VolBias

-0.006

0.12

-0.026

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02KER422030, station 4220102 - Kerkebeek, Sint-Michiels (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02KER422030, station 4220102 - Kerkebeek, Sint-Michiels (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02KER422030, station 4220102 - Kerkebeek, Sint-Michiels (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02KER422030, station 4220102 - Kerkebeek, Sint-Michiels (validation period)

A58

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02KER422030, station 4220102 - Kerkebeek, Sint-Michiels

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02KER422030, station 4220102 - Kerkebeek, Sint-Michiels

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A59

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02KER422030, station 4220102 - Kerkebeek, Sint-Michiels

A60

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V02RIV425020" (BRUGSE POLDERS) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V02RIV425020 (Brugse Polders)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A61

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V02RIV425020

subcatchment_area [m²]

63980423

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.8), ('cmax', 240.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 31.0), ('CK2', 38.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 17086.0), ('PDM.TG', 1.9), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.704

0.387

0.784

NS_log

0.812

0.501

0.782

NS_rel

-2.818

0.907

0.762

RelErr

-2.3 %

-18.2 %

1.6 %

VolBias

0.024

-0.144

0.055

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A62

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.696

0.402

0.701

NS_log

0.745

0.437

0.69

NS_rel

-1.257

0.228

0.615

RelErr

-5.7 %

-8.8 %

-2.4 %

VolBias

-0.043

-0.13

-0.011

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02RIV425020, station 42510102- Rivierbeek; Oostkamp (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02RIV425020, station 42510102- Rivierbeek; Oostkamp (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V02RIV425020, station 42510102- Rivierbeek; Oostkamp (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V02RIV425020, station 42510102- Rivierbeek; Oostkamp (validation period)

A64

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V02RIV425020, station 42510102- Rivierbeek; Oostkamp

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A65

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 5 Gentse Kanalen CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V03POE446000" (GENTSE KANALEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V03POE446000 (Gentse Kanalen)

A66

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V03POE446000

subcatchment_area [m²]

106836849

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.11), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 15.0), ('cmax', 159.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 43.0), ('CK2', 29.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 11807.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1993 - 2009)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.711

0.414

0.823

NS_log

0.706

0.241

0.762

NS_rel

-3.872

-5.124

0.622

RelErr

-0.3 %

1.4 %

-7.8 %

VolBias

0.06

0.087

-0.079

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.671

0.449

0.735

NS_log

0.737

0.352

0.711

NS_rel

-2.052

-3.145

0.574

RelErr

9.5 %

18.2 %

2.3 %

VolBias

0.093

0.147

-0.018

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele (calibration period)

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WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele

A70

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V03POE446000, station 44656122 - Poekebeek; Nevele

Figure 10: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 6 Benedenschelde CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V04MOL036110" (BENEDENSCHELDE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V04MOL036110 (Benedenschelde)

A72

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V04MOL036110

subcatchment_area [m²]

32561957

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 6.3), ('cmax', 273.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 30.0), ('CK2', 35.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 14243.0), ('PDM.TG', 2.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.629

0.551

0.581

NS_log

0.781

0.561

0.73

NS_rel

0.877

0.802

0.819

RelErr

0.4 %

-8.9 %

4.5 %

VolBias

-0.031

-0.057

-0.011

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.579

0.519

0.461

NS_log

0.69

0.265

0.676

NS_rel

-0.05

-0.567

0.688

RelErr

15.6 %

33.8 %

13.9 %

VolBias

0.115

0.203

0.109

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele (calibration period)

3 Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele (calibration period)

A74

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Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V04MOL036110, station 3610102 - Kleine Molenbeek, Liezele

A76

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT " V04MOM037100" (BENEDENSCHELDE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V04MOM037100 (Benedenschelde)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A77

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V04MOM037100

subcatchment_area [m²]

67301328

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 10.0), ('cmax', 319.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 33.0), ('CK2', 28.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 12666.0), ('PDM.TG', 4.3), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.406

0.596

0.318

NS_log

0.76

0.548

0.559

NS_rel

0.743

0.634

0.689

RelErr

0.3 %

0.5 %

5.6 %

VolBias

-0.039

0.005

-0.021

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A78

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.51

0.492

0.39

NS_log

0.711

0.307

0.688

NS_rel

0.081

-0.997

0.665

RelErr

13.8 %

27.3 %

10.7 %

VolBias

0.084

0.188

0.074

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen (calibration period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A79

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen (validation period)

A80

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V04MOM037100, station 3710102 - Grote Molenbeek, Malderen

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A81

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 7 Leie CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT " F05LEI386999" (LEIEBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment F05LEI386999 (Leiebekken)

A82

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

F05LEI386999

subcatchment_area [m²]

2981779554

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.25), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 7.3), ('cmax', 394.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 40.7), ('CK2', 32.5), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 11466.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.4), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.802

0.68

0.781

NS_log

0.781

0.566

0.826

NS_rel

0.754

0.641

0.867

RelErr

-2.0 %

2.1 %

-3.7 %

VolBias

-0.0

0.092

-0.054

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.808

0.674

0.779

NS_log

0.795

0.563

0.821

NS_rel

0.766

0.64

0.862

RelErr

-1.6 %

3.0 %

-3.9 %

VolBias

-0.001

0.088

-0.052

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A83

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment F05LEI386999, station unkown (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment F05LEI386999, station unkown (calibration period)

A84

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment F05LEI386999, station unkown (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment F05LEI386999, station unkown (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A85

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchmentF05LEI386999, station unkown

A86

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V05HEU403210" (LEIEBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V05HEU403210 (Leiebekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A87

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V05HEU403210

subcatchment_area [m²]

91912331

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.24), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 3.2), ('cmax', 167.0), ('CKBF', 1.0), ('CK1', 34.0), ('CK2', 30.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 12742.0), ('PDM.TG', 7.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.758

0.656

0.787

NS_log

0.712

0.366

0.672

NS_rel

-21.003

-35.353

0.781

RelErr

-4.5 %

-4.2 %

-7.1 %

VolBias

0.009

0.04

-0.06

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A88

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.778

0.654

0.773

NS_log

0.765

0.522

0.646

NS_rel

-6.821

-13.917

0.744

RelErr

-5.0 %

-16.4 %

-7.7 %

VolBias

-0.038

-0.115

-0.074

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule (calibration period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A89

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule (validation period)

A90

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchmentV05HEU403210, station 40310102 - Heulebeek; Heule

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A91

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V05MAN401230" (LEIEBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V05MAN401230 (Leiebekken)

A92

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V05MAN401230

subcatchment_area [m²]

258441818

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.28), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.6), ('cmax', 273.0), ('CKBF', 1.0), ('CK1', 33.0), ('CK2', 35.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 16690.0), ('PDM.TG', 1.3), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1983 – 1995)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.812

0.681

0.795

NS_log

0.831

0.705

0.768

NS_rel

0.653

0.813

0.736

RelErr

0.1 %

-0.7 %

-2.5 %

VolBias

-0.01

-0.026

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.758

0.601

0.706

NS_log

0.735

0.427

0.657

NS_rel

0.318

0.266

0.477

RelErr

-4.1 %

8.2 %

-13.6 %

VolBias

0.01

0.122

-0.053

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A93

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V05MAN401230, station 40110102 - Mandel; Oostrozebeke (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V05MAN401230, station 40110102 - Mandel; Oostrozebeke (calibration period)

A94

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V05MAN401230, station 40110102 - Mandel; Oostrozebeke (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V05MAN401230, station 40110102 - Mandel; Oostrozebeke (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A95

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V05MAN401230, station 40110102 - Mandel; Oostrozebeke

A96

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 8 Bovenschelde CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "F06BOS325001" (BOVENSCHELDE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment F06BOS325001 (Bovenschelde)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A97

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

F06BOS325001

subcatchment_area [m²]

5217586196

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.5), ('cmax', 439.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 42.0), ('CK2', 29.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 17574.0), ('PDM.TG', 0.4), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2002 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.585

0.359

0.404

NS_log

0.672

0.26

0.68

NS_rel

0.731

0.302

0.744

RelErr

-4.8 %

-4.2 %

-4.9 %

VolBias

0.003

0.056

-0.042

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A98

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.583

0.409

0.389

NS_log

0.677

0.293

0.681

NS_rel

0.731

0.371

0.739

RelErr

-6.0 %

-5.2 %

-4.5 %

VolBias

-0.005

0.048

-0.039

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment F06BOS325001, station unkown (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment F06BOS325001, station unkown (calibration period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment F06BOS325001, station unkown (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment F06BOS325001, station unkown (validation period)

A100

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F06BOS325001, station unkown

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A101

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V06MAA347160 " (BOVENSCHELDE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V06MAA347160 (Bovenschelde)

A102

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V06MAA347160

subcatchment_area [m²]

48678191

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.05), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.3), ('cmax', 325.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 14.0), ('CK2', 33.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 24980.0), ('PDM.TG', 5.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.408

0.166

0.294

NS_log

0.611

0.299

0.362

NS_rel

0.16

-0.352

0.569

RelErr

0.7 %

-20.0 %

11.5 %

VolBias

-0.011

-0.166

0.108

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.433

0.227

0.347

NS_log

0.581

0.371

0.224

NS_rel

0.531

0.225

0.54

RelErr

-19.6 %

-28.1 %

-10.1 %

VolBias

-0.175

-0.286

-0.065

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A103

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V06MAA347160, station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V06MAA347160, station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove (calibration period)

A104

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V06MAA347160, station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V06MAA347160, station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A105

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V06MAA347160, station 34710102 - Maarkebeek; Etikhove

A106

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V06ZWA342190" (BOVENSCHELDE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V06ZWA342190 (Bovenschelde)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A107

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V06ZWA342190

subcatchment_area [m²]

112117540

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.4), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.0), ('cmax', 365.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 34.0), ('CK2', 19.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 9327.0), ('PDM.TG', 6.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2000 - 2012)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.694

0.454

0.647

NS_log

0.708

0.349

0.747

NS_rel

0.696

0.569

0.887

RelErr

-3.3 %

26.4 %

-14.9 %

VolBias

-0.029

0.245

-0.157

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A108

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.654

0.337

0.659

NS_log

0.558

0.182

0.722

NS_rel

-34.446

-6.346

0.808

RelErr

12.2 %

36.9 %

-2.0 %

VolBias

0.06

0.305

-0.071

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (calibration period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A109

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm (validation period)

A110

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V06ZWA342190, station 34210102 - Zwalm; Nederzwalm

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A111

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W06RHOL54100" (BOVENSCHELDE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W06RHOL54100 (Bovenschelde)

A112

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W06RHOL54100

subcatchment_area [m²]

161928446

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.1), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.3), ('cmax', 410.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 35.0), ('CK2', 25.0), ('bdrainage', 1.1), ('kdrainage', 52000.0), ('PDM.TG', 5.1), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.445

0.4

0.453

NS_log

0.604

0.181

0.462

NS_rel

0.387

0.246

0.598

RelErr

0.9 %

-8.2 %

0.5 %

VolBias

0.128

0.104

0.063

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.439

0.408

0.448

NS_log

0.612

0.227

0.454

NS_rel

0.388

0.235

0.597

RelErr

2.7 %

-7.5 %

2.4 %

VolBias

0.129

0.091

0.07

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A113

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W06RHOL54100, station L5412 Amougies - Rhosnes (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W06RHOL54100, station L5412 Amougies - Rhosnes (calibration period)

A114

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W06RHOL54100, station L5412 Amougies - Rhosnes (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W06RHOL54100, station L5412 Amougies - Rhosnes (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W06RHOL54100, station L5412 Amougies - Rhosnes

A116

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 9 Dender CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V07BEL285070" (DENDERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V07BEL285070 (Denderbekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V07BEL285070

subcatchment_area [m²]

88641710

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 6.6), ('cmax', 441.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 39.0), ('CK2', 15.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 22169.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.9), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.523

0.486

0.406

NS_log

0.728

0.504

0.572

NS_rel

0.757

0.686

0.694

RelErr

0.4 %

-1.4 %

4.0 %

VolBias

-0.007

0.023

0.001

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A118

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.454

0.443

0.278

NS_log

0.644

0.359

0.54

NS_rel

-32.46

-10.038

0.522

RelErr

-7.7 %

2.1 %

-6.3 %

VolBias

-0.039

0.025

-0.011

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V07BEL285070, station 28510102 - Bellebeek, Essene (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V07BEL285070, station 28510102 - Bellebeek, Essene (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V07BEL285070, station 28510102 - Bellebeek, Essene (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V07BEL285070, station 28510102 - Bellebeek, Essene (validation period)

A120

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07BEL285070, station 28510102 - Bellebeek, Essene

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A121

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V07MAR289015" (DENDERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V07MAR289015 (Denderbekken)

A122

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V07MAR289015

subcatchment_area [m²]

173908791

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.13), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.7), ('cmax', 297.0), ('CKBF', 1.0), ('CK1', 8.3), ('CK2', 48.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 24055.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.8), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.585

0.257

0.563

NS_log

0.704

0.096

0.638

NS_rel

0.537

0.393

0.765

RelErr

-2.6 %

1.7 %

-2.3 %

VolBias

0.012

0.125

-0.016

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.635

0.486

0.556

NS_log

0.632

0.133

0.639

NS_rel

-8.612

-15.472

0.562

RelErr

2.4 %

11.3 %

1.4 %

VolBias

0.03

0.133

0.012

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V07MAR289015, tation 28970102 - Marke, Viane (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V07MAR289015, tation 28970102 - Marke, Viane (calibration period)

A124

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V07MAR289015, tation 28970102 - Marke, Viane (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V07MAR289015, tation 28970102 - Marke, Viane (validation period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MAR289015, station 28970102 - Marke, Viane

A126

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V07MOE282100" (DENDERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V07MOE282100 (Denderbekken)

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WL2021R00_162_4-3

A127

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V07MOE282100

subcatchment_area [m²]

46367171

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.31), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.8), ('cmax', 272.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 25.0), ('CK2', 39.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 11804.0), ('PDM.TG', 2.6), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1997 - 2009)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.606

0.239

0.559

NS_log

0.663

0.052

0.644

NS_rel

0.608

0.139

0.889

RelErr

-6.4 %

33.8 %

-15.6 %

VolBias

-0.006

0.382

-0.118

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A128

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.596

0.298

0.537

NS_log

0.689

0.217

0.629

NS_rel

0.653

0.506

0.843

RelErr

1.4 %

16.8 %

-2.0 %

VolBias

0.013

0.233

-0.051

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V07MOE282100, station 28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere (calibration period)

Fig b=140 Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V07MOE282100, station 28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere (calibration period)

Fig b=137 Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V07MOE282100, station 28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere (validation period)

Fig b=140 Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V07MOE282100, station 28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere (validation period)

Fig b=137 A130

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MOE282100, station 28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MOE282100, station 28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MOE282100, station 28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere

Figure 10: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MOE282100, station 28210102 - Molenbeek, Erpe Mere

A132

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V07MOG288020" (DENDERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V07MOG288020 (Denderbekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V07MOG288020

subcatchment_area [m²]

23093628

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.04), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 7.5), ('cmax', 250.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 32.0), ('CK2', 16.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 37694.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.7), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1997 - 2009)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.332

0.294

0.304

NS_log

0.703

0.393

0.395

NS_rel

-0.084

-0.276

0.127

RelErr

3.0 %

-25.0 %

10.5 %

VolBias

0.066

-0.197

0.138

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A134

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.093

0.25

0.024

NS_log

0.597

0.34

0.278

NS_rel

-0.34

-0.608

0.079

RelErr

-3.2 %

-36.1 %

11.5 %

VolBias

0.031

-0.301

0.161

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen (validation period)

A136

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen

Figure 10: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchmentV07MOG288020, station 28810102 - Molenbeek, Geraardsbergen

A138

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W07DENLES004" (DENDERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W07DENLES004 (Denderbekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A139

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W07DENLES004

subcatchment_area [m²]

511840662

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.1), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.0), ('cmax', 422.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 46.0), ('CK2', 32.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 31203.0), ('PDM.TG', 4.6), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2008 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.467

0.104

0.494

NS_log

0.659

0.202

0.394

NS_rel

0.811

0.657

0.695

RelErr

4.9 %

11.9 %

-7.6 %

VolBias

-0.014

0.085

-0.1

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A140

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.468

0.104

0.496

NS_log

0.66

0.202

0.398

NS_rel

0.811

0.657

0.696

RelErr

5.1 %

11.9 %

-7.1 %

VolBias

-0.013

0.085

-0.098

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W07DENLES004, station Lessines (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W07DENLES004, station Lessines (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W07DENLES004, station Lessines (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W07DENLES004, station Lessines (validation period)

A142

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W07DENLES004, station Lessines

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W07DENLES004, station Lessines

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W07DENLES004, station Lessines

A144

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 10 Dijle an Zenne CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V08BAR111370" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V08BAR111370 (Dijle/Zennebekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A145

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V08BAR111370

subcatchment_area [m²]

70079800

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.23), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.7), ('cmax', 414.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 48.0), ('CK2', 31.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 12738.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.7), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1997 - 2004)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.721

0.64

0.613

NS_log

0.811

0.733

0.717

NS_rel

0.82

0.815

0.802

RelErr

1.4 %

3.5 %

4.6 %

VolBias

-0.043

-0.056

-0.03

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A146

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.721

0.64

0.613

NS_log

0.811

0.733

0.717

NS_rel

0.819

0.814

0.801

RelErr

1.5 %

3.6 %

4.8 %

VolBias

-0.043

-0.056

-0.029

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V08BAR111370, station 11110102-Barebeek (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V08BAR111370, station 11110102-Barebeek (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V08BAR111370, station 11110102-Barebeek (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V08BAR111370, station 11110102-Barebeek (validation period)

A148

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V08BAR111370, station 11110102-Barebeek

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V08BAR111370, station 11110102-Barebeek

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V08DIJ093400" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V08DIJ093400 (Dijle/Zennebekken)

A150

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V08DIJ093400

subcatchment_area [m²]

861413000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

08-04-2015

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 10.0), ('cmax', 886.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 28.0), ('CK2', 26.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 27900.0), ('PDM.TG', 7.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2013 - 2015)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.619

0.489

0.663

NS_log

0.628

0.528

0.679

NS_rel

0.762

0.827

0.738

RelErr

2.5 %

-12.4 %

0.4 %

VolBias

-0.016

-0.189

-0.009

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2015)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.622

0.547

0.683

NS_log

0.561

0.581

0.641

NS_rel

0.669

0.797

0.666

RelErr

-1.3 %

-10.6 %

3.2 %

VolBias

-0.009

-0.143

0.026

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele (calibration period)

A152

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele (validation period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V08DIJ093400, station 9310102 - Dijle, Wilsele

A154

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V08ZUU233100" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V08ZUU233100 (Dijle/Zennebekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A155

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V08ZUU233100

subcatchment_area [m²]

64771005

Validation start_date

01-01-1978

Validation end_date

31-12-2001

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.9), ('cmax', 346.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 33.0), ('CK2', 30.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 32620.0), ('PDM.TG', 6.2), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.487

0.274

0.449

NS_log

0.637

0.184

0.426

NS_rel

0.338

0.034

0.557

RelErr

0.9 %

-5.4 %

9.2 %

VolBias

0.075

0.116

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1978 - 2001)

A156

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.235

0.369

-0.15

NS_log

0.64

0.227

0.623

NS_rel

-1.75

-2.364

0.173

RelErr

27.2 %

34.4 %

31.8 %

VolBias

0.207

0.244

0.287

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V08ZUU233100, station 23310102 - Zuunbeek, St Pietersleeuw (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V08ZUU233100, station 23310102 - Zuunbeek, St Pietersleeuw (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V08ZUU233100, station 23310102 - Zuunbeek, St Pietersleeuw (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V08ZUU233100, station 23310102 - Zuunbeek, St Pietersleeuw (validation period)

A158

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V08ZUU233100, station 23310102 - Zuunbeek, St Pietersleeuw

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W08SAMRON000" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W08SAMRON000 (Dijle/Zennebekken)

A160

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W08SAMRON000

subcatchment_area [m²]

134097000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.6), ('cmax', 471.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 19.0), ('CK2', 27.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 17557.0), ('PDM.TG', 6.5), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1998 - 2010)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.442

0.541

0.126

NS_log

0.702

0.504

0.619

NS_rel

0.785

0.766

0.654

RelErr

5.6 %

0.8 %

17.2 %

VolBias

0.094

0.061

0.174

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.447

0.551

0.112

NS_log

0.722

0.497

0.623

NS_rel

0.822

0.796

0.68

RelErr

-3.2 %

-10.2 %

5.3 %

VolBias

0.031

-0.025

0.112

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W08SAMRON000, station 2371-10050 Samme, Ronquieres (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W08SAMRON000, station 2371-10050 Samme, Ronquieres (calibration period)

A162

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W08SAMRON000, station 2371-10050 Samme, Ronquieres (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W08SAMRON000, station 2371-10050 Samme, Ronquieres (validation period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W08SAMRON000, station 2371-10050 Samme, Ronquieres

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W08SAMRON000, station 2371-10050 Samme, Ronquieres

A164

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W08SAMRON000, station 2371-10050 Samme, Ronquieres

Figure 10: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F01IJZ468000, station 46810102 - Ijzer; Haringe

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W08SENRON010" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W08SENRON010 (Dijle/Zennebekken)

A166

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W08SENRON010

subcatchment_area [m²]

70364773

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.1), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 10.0), ('cmax', 489.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 32.0), ('CK2', 25.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 26851.0), ('PDM.TG', 4.3), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2005 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.568

0.372

0.52

NS_log

0.398

-0.103

0.595

NS_rel

-0.458

-2.221

0.482

RelErr

-1.7 %

-4.6 %

1.3 %

VolBias

0.049

0.109

0.022

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.455

0.349

0.379

NS_log

0.45

0.064

0.49

NS_rel

0.091

-0.805

0.507

RelErr

-10.4 %

-30.0 %

-8.1 %

VolBias

-0.065

-0.216

-0.043

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W08SENRON010, station L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres (calibration period)

Fig b=140 Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W08SENRON010, station L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres (calibration period)

Fig b=137 A168

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W08SENRON010, station L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres (validation period)

Fig b=140 Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W08SENRON010, station L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres (validation period)

Fig b=137 Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W08SENRON010, station L5670 -Senette, Ronquieres

A170

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W08SENTUB030" (DIJLE/ZENNEBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W08SENTUB030 (Dijle/Zennebekken)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W08SENTUB030

subcatchment_area [m²]

215911078

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.17), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 3.0), ('cmax', 356.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 28.0), ('CK2', 39.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 20181.0), ('PDM.TG', 1.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.745

0.463

0.721

NS_log

0.758

0.28

0.731

NS_rel

0.887

0.709

0.855

RelErr

-2.1 %

12.5 %

-5.8 %

VolBias

-0.012

0.17

-0.077

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A172

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.711

0.555

0.683

NS_log

0.736

0.414

0.704

NS_rel

0.87

0.868

0.834

RelErr

-9.0 %

-20.0 %

-10.9 %

VolBias

-0.069

-0.115

-0.097

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize (calibration period)

Fig b=140 Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize (calibration period)

Fig b=137 Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize (validation period)

Fig b=140 Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize (validation period)

Fig b=137 A174

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W08SENTUB030, station 1951-10050 Zenne, Tubize

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 11 Demer CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09DEM136000" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09DEM136000 (Demerbekken)

A176

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Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09DEM136000

subcatchment_area [m²]

255882000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.15), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.6), ('cmax', 604.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 20.0), ('CK2', 30.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 16561.0), ('PDM.TG', 4.4), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1998 - 2010)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.642

0.641

0.446

NS_log

0.741

0.603

0.703

NS_rel

0.804

0.772

0.777

RelErr

-0.1 %

3.5 %

-0.9 %

VolBias

0.013

0.056

-0.019

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.584

0.503

0.47

NS_log

0.636

0.445

0.667

NS_rel

0.794

0.755

0.782

RelErr

-1.2 %

0.7 %

-2.3 %

VolBias

-0.048

-0.063

-0.052

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09DEM136000, station 13610102 - Demer; Hasselt (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09DEM136000, station 13610102 - Demer; Hasselt (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09DEM136000, station 13610102 - Demer; Hasselt (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09DEM136000, station 13610102 - Demer; Hasselt (validation period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09DEM136000, station 13610102 - Demer; Hasselt

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09DEM136000, station 13610102 - Demer; Hasselt

A180

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09DEM136000, station 13610102 - Demer; Hasselt

Figure 10: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09DEM136000, station 13610102 - Demer; Hasselt

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT " V09GET152080" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09GET152080 (Demerbekken)

A182

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09GET152080

subcatchment_area [m²]

800395376

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.08), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 10.0), ('cmax', 542.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 36.0), ('CK2', 35.0), ('bdrainage', 1.02), ('kdrainage', 21000.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.8), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.682

0.502

0.663

NS_log

0.614

0.332

0.671

NS_rel

0.687

0.486

0.741

RelErr

0.7 %

-0.0 %

-5.3 %

VolBias

0.072

0.086

-0.006

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.521

0.522

0.221

NS_log

0.652

0.295

0.662

NS_rel

0.678

0.493

0.636

RelErr

8.6 %

20.9 %

-0.7 %

VolBias

0.093

0.177

0.013

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09GET152080, station 15210102 - Gete; Halen (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09GET152080, station 15210102 - Gete; Halen (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09GET152080, station 15210102 - Gete; Halen (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09GET152080, station 15210102 - Gete; Halen (validation period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09GET152080, station 15210102 - Gete; Halen

A186

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT " V09HER163010" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09HER163010 (Demerbekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09HER163010

subcatchment_area [m²]

274602221

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.6), ('cmax', 534.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 35.0), ('CK2', 36.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 24477.0), ('PDM.TG', 6.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2003 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.672

0.488

0.631

NS_log

0.636

0.29

0.72

NS_rel

0.799

0.528

0.862

RelErr

-2.1 %

0.8 %

-11.8 %

VolBias

0.035

0.085

-0.086

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A188

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.64

0.507

0.563

NS_log

0.588

0.084

0.713

NS_rel

0.391

0.229

0.68

RelErr

8.6 %

46.3 %

-10.9 %

VolBias

0.087

0.319

-0.079

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt (validation period)

A190

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09HER163010, station 16310102 - Herk, Kermt

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09HUL147150" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09HUL147150 (Demerbekken)

A192

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09HUL147150

subcatchment_area [m²]

80130245

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.2), ('bevaporation', 1.0), ('cmin', 2.0), ('cmax', 538.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 20.0), ('CK2', 36.0), ('bdrainage', 0.94), ('kdrainage', 6300.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.479

0.115

0.608

NS_log

0.509

0.206

0.654

NS_rel

0.762

0.683

0.81

RelErr

-10.3 %

-10.4 %

-13.8 %

VolBias

-0.164

-0.247

-0.163

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.574

0.383

0.639

NS_log

0.587

0.374

0.707

NS_rel

0.7

0.649

0.801

RelErr

0.7 %

6.8 %

-6.4 %

VolBias

-0.067

-0.089

-0.102

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09HUL147150, station 14710102 - De Hulpe; Molenstede (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09HUL147150, station 14710102 - De Hulpe; Molenstede (calibration period)

A194

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09HUL147150, station 14710102 - De Hulpe; Molenstede (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment F V09HUL147150, station 14710102 - De Hulpe; Molenstede (validation period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09HUL147150, station 14710102 - De Hulpe; Molenstede

A196

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09LOS143300" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09LOS143300 (Demerbekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A197

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09LOS143300

subcatchment_area [m²]

15176294

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.06), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 7.0), ('cmax', 1000.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 43.0), ('CK2', 45.0), ('bdrainage', 0.85), ('kdrainage', 45000.0), ('PDM.TG', 5.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1997 - 2010)

Full year

Summer

Winter

-0.05

0.464

-0.517

NS_log

0.298

-0.242

0.11

NS_rel

-18.86

-18.733

-0.604

RelErr

11.5 %

18.3 %

13.0 %

VolBias

-0.05

0.27

-0.096

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A198

Full year

Summer

Winter

-0.15

0.376

-0.792

NS_log

0.342

-0.216

-0.008

NS_rel

-10.854

-12.344

-0.545

RelErr

6.4 %

42.4 %

0.2 %

VolBias

-0.036

0.353

-0.092

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09LOS143300, station 14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09LOS143300, station 14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09LOS143300, station 14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09LOS143300, station 14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal (validation period)

A200

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09LOS143300, station 14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09LOS143300, station 14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09LOS143300, station 14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal

Figure 10: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09LOS143300, station 14310102 - Grote Losting; Wezemaal

A202

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09MAN161040" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09MAN161040 (Demerbekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A203

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09MAN161040

subcatchment_area [m²]

103081000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.22), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 6.33), ('cmax', 568.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 33.0), ('CK2', 23.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 10044.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1998 - 2010)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.598

0.65

0.426

NS_log

0.599

0.535

0.568

NS_rel

0.518

0.596

0.411

RelErr

0.3 %

-4.7 %

6.4 %

VolBias

0.07

0.031

0.097

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A204

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.656

0.59

0.559

NS_log

0.637

0.438

0.652

NS_rel

0.522

0.342

0.611

RelErr

2.8 %

16.4 %

-0.6 %

VolBias

0.052

0.128

0.035

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09MAN161040, station 16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09MAN161040, station 16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09MAN161040, station 16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09MAN161040, station 16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen (validation period)

A206

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09MAN161040, station 16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09MAN161040, station 16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09MAN161040, station 16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen

Figure 10: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09MAN161040, station 16110102 - Mangelbeek; Lummen

A208

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09MOT144270" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09MOT144270 (Demerbekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A209

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09MOT144270

subcatchment_area [m²]

33590217

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.17), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.9), ('cmax', 423.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 23.0), ('CK2', 30.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 10577.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.4), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1997 - 2007)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.63

0.79

0.506

NS_log

0.593

0.245

0.615

NS_rel

-1.119

-1.778

0.822

RelErr

1.3 %

33.7 %

-12.2 %

VolBias

-0.074

0.16

-0.158

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A210

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.482

0.693

0.221

NS_log

0.474

0.152

0.349

NS_rel

-0.379

-1.84

0.641

RelErr

-12.4 %

-5.9 %

-12.4 %

VolBias

-0.144

-0.041

-0.165

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09MOT144270, station 14410102 - Motte; Rillaar (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09MOT144270, station 14410102 - Motte; Rillaar (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09MOT144270, station 14410102 - Motte; Rillaar (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09MOT144270, station 14410102 - Motte; Rillaar (validation period)

A212

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09MOT144270, station 14410102 - Motte; Rillaar

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09MOT144270, station 14410102 - Motte; Rillaar

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09MOT144270, station 14410102 - Motte; Rillaar

A214

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09VEL145100" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09VEL145100 (Demerbekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A215

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09VEL145100

subcatchment_area [m²]

96801128

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.8), ('cmax', 370.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 32.0), ('CK2', 35.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 25000.0), ('PDM.TG', 4.8), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.562

0.484

0.33

NS_log

0.743

0.335

0.563

NS_rel

0.752

0.396

0.547

RelErr

0.7 %

9.4 %

2.8 %

VolBias

-0.015

0.151

-0.041

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A216

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.475

0.542

0.254

NS_log

0.709

0.352

0.592

NS_rel

-1.43

-2.394

0.697

RelErr

-1.2 %

21.5 %

-9.8 %

VolBias

0.004

0.198

-0.057

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09VEL145100, station 14510102 - Velp; Ransberg (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09VEL145100, station 14510102 - Velp; Ransberg (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09VEL145100, station 14510102 - Velp; Ransberg (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09VEL145100, station 14510102 - Velp; Ransberg (validation period)

A218

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09VEL145100, station 14510102 - Velp; Ransberg

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A219

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09WIN141310" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09WIN141310 (Demerbekken)

A220

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09WIN141310

subcatchment_area [m²]

64739169

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.16), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 8.0), ('cmax', 620.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 30.0), ('CK2', 25.0), ('bdrainage', 1.03), ('kdrainage', 37000.0), ('PDM.TG', 6.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.525

0.419

0.33

NS_log

0.519

0.1

0.602

NS_rel

-50.872

-54.365

0.708

RelErr

4.2 %

18.9 %

-4.8 %

VolBias

0.048

0.327

-0.085

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.344

0.608

-0.06

NS_log

0.552

0.249

0.539

NS_rel

-27.159

-18.75

0.555

RelErr

6.8 %

12.7 %

3.3 %

VolBias

0.08

0.232

0.004

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09WIN141310, station 141 - Rotselaar ; Winge (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09WIN141310, station 141 - Rotselaar ; Winge (calibration period)

A222

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09WIN141310, station 141 - Rotselaar ; Winge (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09WIN141310, station 141 - Rotselaar ; Winge (validation period)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09WIN141310, station 141 - Rotselaar ; Winge

A224

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V09ZWA148120" (DEMERBEKKEN) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V09ZWA148120 (Demerbekken)

Final version

WL2021R00_162_4-3

A225

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V09ZWA148120

subcatchment_area [m²]

96514800

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.19), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 7.9), ('cmax', 776.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 31.0), ('CK2', 37.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 16935.0), ('PDM.TG', 7.9), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2007)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.718

0.43

0.746

NS_log

0.577

0.194

0.759

NS_rel

0.245

-1.183

0.867

RelErr

2.7 %

27.4 %

-13.4 %

VolBias

0.001

0.211

-0.145

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A226

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.559

0.306

0.627

NS_log

0.467

0.298

0.519

NS_rel

-4.909

-12.328

0.346

RelErr

-9.8 %

8.9 %

-19.4 %

VolBias

-0.089

-0.04

-0.138

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen (validation period)

Fig b=140 Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen (validation period)

Fig b=137 A228

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchmentV09ZWA148120, station 14810102 - Zwarte Beek; Lummen

A230

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 12 Nete CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10GLA086020" (NETE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V10GLA086020 (Nete)

Final version

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A231

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V10GLA086020

subcatchment_area [m²]

62621236

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.18), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 9.0), ('cmax', 456.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 19.0), ('CK2', 45.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 6113.0), ('PDM.TG', 1.4), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1999 - 2007)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.772

0.574

0.725

NS_log

0.774

0.526

0.786

NS_rel

0.859

0.8

0.864

RelErr

-0.4 %

2.1 %

-6.0 %

VolBias

-0.035

-0.056

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A232

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.614

0.234

0.63

NS_log

0.452

0.051

0.598

NS_rel

-7.416

-24.225

0.283

RelErr

-14.3 %

-19.6 %

-14.0 %

VolBias

-0.106

-0.147

-0.106

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10GLA086020, station 8610102 - Grote Laak, Vorst (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10GLA086020, station 8610102 - Grote Laak, Vorst (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10GLA086020, station 8610102 - Grote Laak, Vorst (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10GLA086020, station 8610102 - Grote Laak, Vorst (validation period)

A234

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10GLA086020, station 8610102 - Grote Laak, Vorst

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10GLA086020, station 8610102 - Grote Laak, Vorst

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10GLA086020, station 8610102 - Grote Laak, Vorst

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10GNE076999" (NETE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V10GNE076999 (Nete)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V10GNE076999

subcatchment_area [m²]

359885327

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.24), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 5.8), ('cmax', 778.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 42.0), ('CK2', 46.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 12501.0), ('PDM.TG', 0.3), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2003 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.761

0.562

0.683

NS_log

0.744

0.562

0.677

NS_rel

0.79

0.498

0.819

RelErr

-3.3 %

3.3 %

-12.2 %

VolBias

0.002

0.089

-0.093

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A238

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.744

0.617

0.672

NS_log

0.705

0.458

0.683

NS_rel

0.743

0.483

0.809

RelErr

-6.3 %

6.1 %

-15.8 %

VolBias

-0.034

0.088

-0.131

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10GNE076999, station 7610102 Grote Nete/Geel Zammel (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10GNE076999, station 7610102 Grote Nete/Geel Zammel (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10GNE076999, station 7610102 Grote Nete/Geel Zammel (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10GNE076999, station 7610102 Grote Nete/Geel Zammel (validation period)

A240

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10GNE076999, station 7610102 Grote Nete/Geel Zammel

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10KNE052000" (NETE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V10KNE052000 (Nete)

A242

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V10KNE052000

subcatchment_area [m²]

584669408

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.26), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 5.2), ('cmax', 431.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 40.0), ('CK2', 35.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 10171.0), ('PDM.TG', 5.7), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.784

0.622

0.686

NS_log

0.801

0.582

0.683

NS_rel

0.783

0.371

0.724

RelErr

-0.4 %

17.0 %

-7.5 %

VolBias

-0.0

0.204

-0.089

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.798

0.765

0.685

NS_log

0.834

0.672

0.741

NS_rel

0.833

0.693

0.794

RelErr

-2.2 %

8.9 %

-7.3 %

VolBias

-0.009

0.126

-0.069

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10KNE052000, station 5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10KNE052000, station 5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk (calibration period)

A244

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10KNE052000, station 5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10KNE052000, station 5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk (validation period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10KNE052000, station 5210102 - Kleine Nete; Grobbendonk

A246

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10MOP062140" (NETE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V10MOP062140 (Nete)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V10MOP062140

subcatchment_area [m²]

77319091

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.12), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 6.1), ('cmax', 459.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 45.0), ('CK2', 44.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 20400.0), ('PDM.TG', 10.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1997 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.453

0.496

0.291

NS_log

0.672

0.478

0.57

NS_rel

-0.45

-1.137

0.508

RelErr

2.6 %

-11.9 %

5.9 %

VolBias

0.026

-0.09

0.097

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A248

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.49

0.481

0.357

NS_log

0.585

0.242

0.688

NS_rel

-9.462

-22.25

0.597

RelErr

17.5 %

29.4 %

19.2 %

VolBias

0.106

0.115

0.159

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10MOP062140, station 6210102 - Molenbeek, Pulle (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10MOP062140, station 6210102 - Molenbeek, Pulle (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10MOP062140, station 6210102 - Molenbeek, Pulle (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10MOP062140, station 6210102 - Molenbeek, Pulle (validation period)

A250

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10MOP062140, station 6210102 - Molenbeek, Pulle

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "V10WIM082050" (NETE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment V10WIM082050 (Nete)

A252

WL2021R00_162_4-3

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

V10WIM082050

subcatchment_area [m²]

65701200

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.1), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 6.5), ('cmax', 443.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 30.0), ('CK2', 38.0), ('bdrainage', 0.95), ('kdrainage', 16000.0), ('PDM.TG', 6.5), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1995 - 2007)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.048

0.473

-0.568

NS_log

0.587

0.397

0.54

NS_rel

-8.784

-17.588

0.448

RelErr

-0.4 %

-23.1 %

18.1 %

VolBias

-0.098

-0.3

0.063

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

-0.077

0.451

-0.803

NS_log

0.551

0.381

0.537

NS_rel

-5.579

-12.389

0.141

RelErr

11.8 %

-18.1 %

38.3 %

VolBias

-0.012

-0.258

0.192

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 - Wiekevorst (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 - Wiekevorst (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 - Wiekevorst (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 - Wiekevorst (validation period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 - Wiekevorst

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 - Wiekevorst

A256

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment V10WIM082050, station 8210102 - Wiekevorst

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 13 Meuse CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "F11MAA8702" (MEUSE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment F11MAA8702 (Meuse)

A258

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

F11MAA8702

subcatchment_area [m²]

10120000000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.37), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 0.7), ('cmax', 452.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 43.0), ('CK2', 41.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 16884.0), ('PDM.TG', 1.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2002 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.673

-0.032

0.443

NS_log

0.618

-0.093

0.028

NS_rel

0.559

-0.231

0.509

RelErr

-3.9 %

40.1 %

-13.7 %

VolBias

-0.059

0.33

-0.145

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.702

-0.153

0.542

NS_log

0.642

-0.079

0.188

NS_rel

0.615

-0.313

0.583

RelErr

-7.2 %

37.5 %

-15.3 %

VolBias

-0.078

0.33

-0.152

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment F11MAA8702, station Meuse, Chooz (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment F11MAA8702, station Meuse, Chooz (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment F11MAA8702, station Meuse, Chooz (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment F11MAA8702, station Meuse, Chooz (validation period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment F11MAA8702, station Meuse, Chooz

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11BER551010" (MEUSE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W11BER551010 (Meuse)

Fig b=90x140 Figure 2: Annual cumulated discharge (red) and scaled precipitation (blue) according to runoff ratio (total Q/total P) and cumulative potential evapotranspiration (green) on catchment W11BER551010 (Meuse)

Fig b=90x135

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W11BER551010

subcatchment_area [m²]

128000000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.35), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 3.8), ('cmax', 323.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 21.0), ('CK2', 43.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 9015.0), ('PDM.TG', 1.9), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (1994 - 2006)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.634

0.587

0.581

NS_log

0.652

0.424

0.669

NS_rel

0.65

0.731

0.678

RelErr

-0.6 %

1.8 %

-5.0 %

VolBias

-0.063

-0.006

-0.121

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A264

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.526

0.385

0.489

NS_log

0.307

-0.203

0.432

NS_rel

-14.289

-18.594

-3.825

RelErr

5.2 %

21.2 %

-3.9 %

VolBias

0.022

0.174

-0.09

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11BER551010, station unkown (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11BER551010, station unkown (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11BER551010, station unkown (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11BER551010, station unkown (validation period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11BER551010, station unkown

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11BER551010, station unkown

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11BER551010, station unkown

A268

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11HOY5990" (MEUSE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W11HOY5990 (Meuse)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W11HOY5990

subcatchment_area [m²]

242000000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.07), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 5.6), ('cmax', 510.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 30.0), ('CK2', 38.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 16202.0), ('PDM.TG', 0.3), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.29

0.072

0.083

NS_log

0.626

0.153

0.565

NS_rel

0.828

0.628

0.814

RelErr

-1.8 %

-6.3 %

-1.1 %

VolBias

-0.011

-0.025

-0.056

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

A270

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.259

0.072

0.088

NS_log

0.626

0.153

0.574

NS_rel

0.826

0.628

0.815

RelErr

-0.3 %

-6.3 %

0.8 %

VolBias

-0.004

-0.025

-0.046

WL2021R00_162_4-3

Final version

Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin (calibration period)

Final version

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin (validation period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11HOY5990, station Hoyoux, Marchin

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CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11MEH5820" (MEUSE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W11MEH5820 (Meuse)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W11MEH5820

subcatchment_area [m²]

355800000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 0.8), ('bpareto', 0.08), ('bevaporation', 1.0), ('cmin', 6.8), ('cmax', 265.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 28.0), ('CK2', 35.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 17236.0), ('PDM.TG', 3.7), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2004 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.61

0.453

0.412

NS_log

0.765

0.415

0.509

NS_rel

0.836

0.641

0.643

RelErr

-1.6 %

17.9 %

-8.5 %

VolBias

-0.011

0.136

-0.043

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.593

0.347

0.452

NS_log

0.719

0.443

0.514

NS_rel

0.863

0.894

0.709

RelErr

-10.1 %

-13.8 %

-2.5 %

VolBias

-0.066

-0.051

-0.021

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Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11MEH5820, station Mehaigne, Wanze (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11MEH5820, station Mehaigne, Wanze (calibration period)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11MEH5820, station Mehaigne, Wanze (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11MEH5820, station Mehaigne, Wanze (validation period)

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Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11MEH5820, station Mehaigne, Wanze

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11OUR5805" (MEUSE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W11OUR5805 (Meuse)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W11OUR5805

subcatchment_area [m²]

3607000000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.15), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 1.76), ('cmax', 236.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 47.0), ('CK2', 43.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 6081.0), ('PDM.TG', 4.0), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2001 - 2013)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.836

0.673

0.815

NS_log

0.847

0.64

0.728

NS_rel

0.88

0.737

0.828

RelErr

-0.3 %

10.3 %

-0.6 %

VolBias

-0.01

0.098

-0.037

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

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Full year

Summer

Winter

0.813

0.77

0.767

NS_log

0.855

0.732

0.729

NS_rel

0.87

0.897

0.755

RelErr

0.4 %

5.0 %

-0.2 %

VolBias

0.001

0.064

-0.014

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis (calibration period)

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Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis (validation period)

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Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11OUR5805, station Ourthe, Angleur 2 bis

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CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION OF PDM PARAMETERS FOR CATCHMENT "W11SAM7319" (MEUSE) Input data Figure 1: Cumulative precipitation on catchment W11SAM7319 (Meuse)

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Model summary model_structure

PDMclassic.Lumped

subcatchment_name

W11SAM7319

subcatchment_area [m²]

2636000000

Validation start_date

01-01-1967

Validation end_date

31-12-2013

frequency

daily

Optimal parameter set: [('rainfraction', 1.0), ('bpareto', 0.2), ('bevaporation', 2.0), ('cmin', 4.7), ('cmax', 403.0), ('CKBF', 300.0), ('CK1', 45.0), ('CK2', 36.0), ('bdrainage', 1.0), ('kdrainage', 18561.0), ('PDM.TG', 1.1), ('tdly', 0.0), ('qconst', 0.0)] Table 1: Goodness of fit for calibration period (2007 - 2012)

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.804

0.405

0.734

NS_log

0.774

0.3

0.671

NS_rel

0.826

0.353

0.83

RelErr

0.0 %

23.8 %

-6.8 %

VolBias

-0.034

0.171

-0.113

Table 2 :Goodness of fit for validation period (1967 - 2013)

Final version

Full year

Summer

Winter

0.769

0.436

0.666

NS_log

0.755

0.337

0.592

NS_rel

0.832

0.397

0.806

RelErr

-1.3 %

21.2 %

-7.9 %

VolBias

-0.079

0.123

-0.161

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Observed and simulated timeseries for optimum parameters Figure 3: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11SAM7319, station Samber, Salzinne (calibration period)

Figure 4: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11SAM7319, station Samber, Salzinne (calibration period)

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Figure 5: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] on catchment W11SAM7319, station Samber, Salzinne (validation period)

Figure 6: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) cumulative discharge [m3] on catchment W11SAM7319, station Samber, Salzinne (validation period)

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Figure 7: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11SAM7319, station Samber, Salzinne

Figure 8: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11SAM7319, station Samber, Salzinne

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Figure 9: Measured (red) and simulated (blue) daily discharge [m3/s] during specific low and high flow events on catchment W11SAM7319, station Samber, Salzinne

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Annexe 14 Geographical overview calibration Based on the statistics for each of the PDM models, a reclassification is performed. The table below shows how NSE, LogNSE and RelErr are combined to get a unique value for each subcatchment. This evaluation results in the map which is included hereafter.

NSE

LogNSE

RelErr

Combinations 3 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 1

A290

3 3 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 1

3 2 3 1 2 3 1 3 2 1

When value Reclassify value >0,6 0,3-0,6 <0,3

3 2 1

>0,6 0,3-0,6 <0,3

3 2 1

<15 50-30 >50

3 2 1

Combination statistics 27 18 12 9 8 6 4 3 2 1

Reclassification 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1

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Judgement Good Acceptable

Bad

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Modelling water availability and water allocation strategies in the Scheldt basin Sub report 4-3 – Analyses of hydrological models for climate change modelling – PDM modelling

Annexe 15 Geographical overview validation Based on the statistics for each of the NAM models, a reclassification is performed. The table below shows how NSE, LogNSE and RelErr are combined to get a unique value for each subcatchment. This evaluation results in the map which is included hereafter.

NSE

LogNSE

RelErr

Combinations 3 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 1

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3 3 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 1

3 2 3 1 2 3 1 3 2 1

When value Reclassify value >0,6 0,3-0,6 <0,3

3 2 1

>0,6 0,3-0,6 <0,3

3 2 1

<15 50-30 >50

3 2 1

Combination statistics 27 18 12 9 8 6 4 3 2 1

Reclassification 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1

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Judgement Good Acceptable

Bad

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DEPARTMENT MOBILITY & PUBLIC WORKS Flanders hydraulics Research Berchemlei 115, 2140 Antwerp T +32 (0)3 224 60 35 F +32 (0)3 224 60 36 waterbouwkundiglabo@vlaanderen.be www.flandershydraulicsresearch.be