This report will sketch out mercantilism’s origins and logic, how free trade’s own contradictions then led back to neomercantilism and what we dub Merkelcantilism. Find out more.
The
economic
consequences of major tax cuts for the rich
By: David Hope, Julian Limberg
The last 50 years has seen a dramatic decline in taxes on the rich across the advanced democracies. Discover More
are
The fact that the GSM mobile communications standard was successfully established as a global standard in the 1980s was due to joint European action and a single important decision.
Digitalization “made in Europe” is the last chance
By: Daniel Stelter
In the 1980s, Europe succeeded in establishing a global standard. The GSM mobile communications standard began its triumphant advance. At the beginning of the process, it was by no means certain that it would be able to compete with the technologically and financially strong US competition. The fact that GSM was nevertheless successfully established as a global standard was due to a joint European approach and, above all, to the focus on defining standards. These enabled various market
participants to use the system and facilitated its international distribution.
For Alexander Markowetz, professor of computer science at the University of Marburg, the GSM example shows what would be possible in Europe today. The digitalization of business, society, and public administration is only just beginning, and although we –especially in Germany – are obviously not among the pioneers, Markowetz is convinced that the race is not over yet.
Together with Kristian Kersting, Professor of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, and Dominik Michels, Professor of Intelligent Algorithms in Modeling and Simulation – both of whom teach at TU Darmstadt –Markowetz has presented an analysis that shows how important the establishment of a Ministry of Digitalization in Germany is to finally advance the process of digital transformation. Continue Reading.
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Why and How the IMF Should Address Weaknesses in the Global Financial Safety Net
The authors find that IMF quotas of LICs and MICs would need to, at the very least, double to address the current structural gaps in the GFSN and at least triple to meet their GEFN in case of a systemic shock. Find out more.
IMF QUOTAS
By: IMF
Quotas are the building blocks of the IMF’s financial and governance structure. An individual member country’s quota broadly reflects its relative position in the world economy.
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Turning Treasury Securities into Century Bonds Is a Dead End
By Pete Earle
In times of rising debt and fiscal strain, unconventional ideas occasionally surface as ways to manage the US government’s borrowing obligations. Few have forgotten the trillion-dollar platinum coin scheme a few years back. A recent suggestion, associated with Stephen Miran’s A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System (aka The Mar-a-Lago Accord) involves forcing or pressuring holders of US Treasury securities to exchange their current bonds many with short- or medium-term maturities for 100-year bonds carrying lower interest rates.
On the surface, the plan seems attractive: it could reduce short-term debt servicing costs and push out repayment far into the future. However, viewed through legal, financial, and market lenses, the plan is a nonstarter at best unrealistic, and if pursued, potentially disastrous.
Below are seven key reasons why such a strategy would be unworkable and harmful to the credibility of the US government and the functioning of global financial markets.
1. It represents a violation of the contractual terms
Treasury securities are formal contracts between the US government and investors. They specify the amount borrowed, the coupon rate, and the repayment date. Investors buy these securities with the legally binding expectation that the terms will be honored. A forced conversion into 100-year bonds particularly those with lower yields would represent a breach of contract. This would likely result in a wave of legal challenges in US courts and could be interpreted as a selective default by credit rating agencies.
Continue Reading.
By Laurissa Mühlich, Marina ZuckerMarques
While the idea of reducing interest costs by converting existing debt into ultra-long,
might sound like a creative solution to America’s debt challenges, it
The Weekly Financial Digest
Failure to communicate is an economic policy risk
By: Udaibir Das
First, macroeconomic conditions matter: reforms are more likely to succeed during stable growth and low inflation periods. Second, communication quality is decisive: policies land better when governments clearly explain why changes are needed and how they will unfold. Find out more.
European State of the Climate 2024
By:
Europe is the fastest-warming continent, and the impacts of climate change here are clear. 2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, with record temperatures in central, eastern and southeastern regions. Discover More
70 organizations join ECB’s digital euro innovation platform
By: Ledger Insights
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced the launch of its innovation platform for the digital euro central bank digital currency (CBDC). Seventy organizations have signed up to participate, including startups, merchants, fintechs, banks and other payment service providers. One of the workstreams is for “Pioneers” and will focus on conditional payments, where a payment is only triggered if a condition is met, such as the arrival of a parcel. The other group
involves “Visionaries”, who will explore other potential use cases with societal impact, such as financial inclusion. During the call for participants last October, the central bank also mentioned tokenization amongst the Visionary applications. Only four of the participants are banks, one each from Austria, Cyprus, Germany and Spain, with Spain’s CaixaBank by far the largest. Two other entities, Italy’s ABI Lab and Spain’s CaixaBank by far the largest.
Two other entities, Italy’s ABI Lab and Spain’s Iberpay, have historically worked on DLT and digital euro projects in collaboration with many of their nation’s banks. One of the workstreams is for “Pioneers” and will focus on conditional payments, where a payment is only triggered if a condition is met, such as the arrival of a parcel. The other group involves “Visionaries”, who will explore other potential use cases with societal impact, such as financial inclusion. Continue Reading.
The ECB has long seen the digital euro as needed to protect monetary sovereignty.
World Meteorological Organization
Scaling DLT Capital Markets - Enabling Central Bank Money Settlement and Collateral Eligibility for DLT-based Securities
By: AFME
AFME has today published proposals in areas key to further scaling of DLT-based capital markets. Find out more.
Trump announces large purchase of Boeing jets by Qatar Airways
By: WaPo
Trump said the order was for 160 airplanes and claimed it was the largest order in Boeing’s history. Discover More
Synopsis
With Europe and others granted 90 days to negotiate a new “deal” with Donald Trump that avoids the threatened reciprocal tariffs, everyone is rethinking their playbook for managing the mercurial U.S. President.
How Should Europe Respond to King Donald
By: Brad Setser, Groupe d’études géopolitiques
The standard diplomatic playbook for “managing” Donald Trump was heavily inspired by the example set by Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He had the advantage of a good golf game, but knew enough not to try to beat the President. He understood that the flattery should flow copiously when the TV cameras are on. More controversially, Abe was willing to absorb a few punches without punching back. Abe didn’t file a WTO challenge, let alone retaliate against U.S. steel tariffs.
Trump also no doubt appreciated Abe’s willingness to strike a trade “mini deal” that gave U.S. farmers many if not most of the concessions that were negotiated in the TransPacific Partnership without requiring the U.S. to open its market to Japanese auto imports. Diplomats in Washington took note; the playbook for managing Trump has been to a keep a direct line to the President, be unsparing in flattery for his genius, and offer cosmetic concessions for Donald Trump to sell. But there are clear limits to just how
much President Trump can be managed. No one has not former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, not former Goldman Sachs executive Gary Cohn, not former Senate leader Mitch McConnell has been able to shake Trump of his core belief that America’s allies have long exploited their economic relationship with the United States and that high and broad tariffs on America’s friends are a necessary corrective. Japan was never really rewarded for Abe’s skill at building a personal relationship with Trump. Continue Reading.
EU ‘has no interest’ in reviving stalled investment deal with China, says trade official
By: SCMP
Head of bloc’s trade delegation in Beijing tells forum the two sides should focus on Brussels’ long-standing concerns such as overcapacity Find out more.
UNU-WIDER releases
major update of the World Income Inequality Database
By: WIID
Explore the WIID Explorer for charts, tables, and inequality factsheets. Discover More
The Brief
To answer whether MIC25 was successful, we measure outcomes across four of the plan's main categories: China’s import dependency, dependency on foreign companies, global competitiveness, and technological leadership.
Was Made in China 2025 Successful?
By: Camille Boullenois, Malcolm Black and Daniel H. Rosen
Made in China 2025 (MIC25) was unveiled in 2015 as a sweeping industrial policy to transform China into a global leader in advanced manufacturing by 2025. The policy aimed to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign technology, enhance domestic innovation, and build global competitiveness and competitors in strategic industries such as robotics, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles. Following international criticism particularly from the Trump
administration and other governments concerned about its market-distorting effects the policy officially disappeared from public discourse in 2018. However, the core objectives of MIC25 have continued under alternative frameworks and initiatives to incentivize localization and provide state support to priority industries.
This report builds on the US Chamber of Commerce’s 2017 analysis of MIC25 to evaluate its performance and long-term impact.
In the years following the policy’s launch, financial state support intensified, though often through indirect channels. Tax benefits aimed at innovation surged by an average annual rate of 28.8% between 2018 and 2022, and the proportion of companies enjoying additional deductions and tax reductions more than quadrupled between 2015 and 2023. State investment through government guidance funds increased more than five-fold between 2015 and 2020. Continue Reading.
Trade War: Eastern Europe Hit Hard by US Customs Tariffs
By: Richard Hiault
Growth in Eastern European countries will suffer from the US-led trade war. For the second time in a row, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has revised its forecasts downward. The region will lose between half and one percentage point of growth. Find out more.
Mini Options on French and Dutch stocks
By: Euronext
Euronext launches Mini Single Stock Options on French and Dutch underlyings building on its strong existing options trading offering, reinforcing its position as the leading European hub.
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The Brief
The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that reports on recent developments in electric mobility around the world. It is developed with the support of members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI).
Global EV Outlook 2025 Expanding sales in diverse markets
By: IEA
The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that reports on recent developments in electric mobility around the world. It is developed with the support of members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI).
The report draws on the latest data to assess trends in electric vehicle deployment, demand for their batteries and charging infrastructure. It considers recent policy developments and industry strategies shaping the outlook for electric vehicles in different markets.
EU, Europe
This edition features analysis of electric vehicle affordability, manufacturing and trade of electric cars and their batteries, and the total cost of ownership of electric heavy-duty trucks across various markets, and makes projections to 2030.
The report is complemented by updated versions of two online tools: the Global EV Data Explorer and the Global EV Policy Explorer, which allow users to further explore EV statistics and projections, and policy measures worldwide.
The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) is a multi-governmental policy forum established in 2010 under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM). Recognising the opportunities offered by EVs, the EVI is dedicated to accelerating the adoption of EVs worldwide. To do so, it strives to better understand the policy challenges related to electric mobility, to help governments address them and to serve as a platform for knowledge-sharing among government policy makers.
Continue Reading.
Europe’s military buildup: A breakneck race that’s not fast enough
By: Lee Hockstader
Europe’s race to rearm is accelerating at warp speed and not nearly fast enough.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has lowered its regional economic forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points relative to its February 2025 rojections Discover More
The power of one: How standout firms grow national productivity
By: Jan Mischke, Chris Bradley, Olivia White, Guillaume Dagorret, Sven Smit, Dymfke Kuijpers, Charles Atkins, and Ishaa Sandhu
When firms become more productive, so do economies. Increasing the value each worker creates also promotes rising wages for workers and profits for firms. These facts are well known to economists. Our other findings are not. A small number of firms contribute the lion’s share of productivity growth. Fewer than 100 productivity “Standouts” account for twothirds of growth in our sample of 8,300 large firms in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Many others also play a role: the majority of firms contribute positively.Productivity grows in powerful bursts as firms find new ways to create and scale new value. Think Apple expanding into services, easyJet shaping the discount airline trend, and Zalando pioneering apparel e-commerce. This is not the efficiency transformation nor the gradual diffusion described by conventional wisdom. In the United States, the most productive firms expanded and unproductive firms restructured or exited.
This contributed half of US sample productivity growth while sticky underperformers dragged down growth in Germany and the United Kingdom.
This fresh view of productivity growth calls for a new playbook. It suggests focus on the power of the few more than the broad swath, on value creation more than efficiency, and on reallocation of resources to leading businesses.
Continue Reading.
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Bessent Blasts China's Economic Model, Calls For Global Reset, IMF Refocus
By: Fidelity
"We must make the IMF the IMF again," Bessent said Wednesday in a panel hosted by the Institute of International Finance during the the Fund’s Spring Meetings in Washington. Find out More
The Number of Europeans Visiting the US Is Down Over 20 Percent
By: Mike Shedlock
Trump does not seem concerned about services. He should be. Discover More
Tariffs, Trade, and Their Impact on Banking, Credit, and Profitability
By Danny Trudo
In today’s global economy, tariffs aren’t just a trade policy concern they have direct financial consequences for middle-market businesses, commercial and industrial (C&I) sectors, real estate, and private equity firms. As global trade tensions evolve, so do the challenges and opportunities within banking, lending, and capital markets. With recent discussions on tariffs affecting key U.S. trading partners including the EU, Mexico, Canada, and China it’s critical for businesses and financial institutions
to understand how these changes will impact financing, risk management, and profitability.
How Tariffs Impact Banking, Credit, and Loan Markets
1. Rising Costs and Increased Credit Demand • Businesses affected by tariffs especially in manufacturing, distribution, and commercial real estate may require larger credit lines or term loans to cover rising costs for raw materials, imported goods, and working capital.
• Short-term liquidity needs will increase as businesses navigate
supply chain volatility and cash flow disruptions.
• Banks may see increased demand for structured financing solutions such as supply chain finance, trade credit, and asset-backed lending. 2. Higher Risk Exposure for Lenders • Loan portfolios with exposure to tariff-sensitive industries (e.g., manufacturing, import-heavy sectors) may see increased default risks as profit margins tighten.
• More conservative underwriting standards could emerge as banks assess tariffrelated risks, leading to: Continue Reading.
The Weekly Financial
Germany is in shock
and has a new ‘absolute priority’
By: Lee Hockstader
The sturdiest pillars of Germany’s domestic and international identity have been pulverized with such dizzying speed over the past few weeks that millions of Germans must wake up these days wondering: Wait, what just happened? Find out more.
UK concludes trade deal with India
By: Department for Business
The UK and India have today agreed a landmark trade deal which delivers on this government’s core mission of growing the economy, raising living standards, and putting money in people’s pockets Discover More
The old global economic order is dead
The column by Martin Wolf
True, Donald Trump’s approach is far worse than intellectually incoherent: it is lethal for any co-operative global order. Some people think a collapse of such “globalism” is even desirable.
In my view, it is foolish to imagine that a world run by predatory “great powers” would be superior to the one we have. Yet, while Trump’s protectionism has to lose, Chinese mercantilism must not win, since it, too, creates substantial global difficulties.
European Union
To understand the problems the world economy faces it helps to start from the topic of “global imbalances”, which was much discussed in the run-up to the global and Eurozone financial crises of 2007-2015. In the years since, these imbalances have grown smaller but the overall picture has not changed. As the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook notes: China and European creditor nations (notably Germany) have run persistent surpluses, while the US has run offsetting deficits.
As a result, the US net international investment position was minus 24 per cent of global output in 2024. Since the US runs trade and current account deficits and has a comparative advantage in services, it also runs large deficits in manufactures. So what, a passionate freemarketeer would ask? Indeed, even a not-quite-so-passionate free marketeer might note, with good reason, that the US has been fortunate to live beyond its means for decades. Continue Reading.
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A
‘golden
age’
of global free trade is over. Smaller alliances can meet the moment
By Armin Steinbach
The global trade landscape is shifting, and not in the way free traders had hoped. For decades, the belief that economic openness could foster peace and stability reigned supreme. Find out more.
The Embargo Act of 1807
By: Thomas Jefferson Foundation
"the affair of the Chesapeak put war into my hand. I had only to open it, and let havoc loose"
–Thomas Jefferson, April 25, 1812
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Someone’s actually winning the trade war. It’s Elon Musk and Starlink.
By Matt Bai
The past several weeks might have been tumultuous or even existential for a lot of U.S. businesses caught up in trade wars, but they’ve been pretty darn good for Starlink, the satellite company owned by Elon Musk. After years of regulatory holdups, Starlink reached distribution deals in March with two giant internet providers in India, the world’s most populous country, and won approval in neighboring Pakistan as well. Another of America’s major trade partners, Vietnam, waived a rule that required Starlink to partner with a domestic company and said it would
launch a five-year pilot program with Starlink. Bangladesh, the second-largest exporter of garments to the U.S., just announced its own deal with Starlink after months of stalled negotiations. And in Lesotho, officials brushed aside long-standing objections to Starlink’s foreign ownership and granted the company a license.
I can find no publicly available data that lets us reliably compare the pace of Starlink’s dealmaking in the first part of this year to previous years. But all of these countries represent long-sought partnerships for Musk, and all of them but Lesotho will rank among
Starlink’s top markets in terms of population. This flurry of expansion, of course, comes as most of the world views Musk as the second-most powerful man in D.C. So it raises some obvious questions. Are America’s trade partners, desperate to duck Trump’s threats of devastating tariffs against pretty much every country on the planet, rushing to give Musk access to their markets because they think it’s good politics? Or is Musk pressuring these countries into clearing away the hurdles that have blocked Starlink from their markets? Continue Reading.
The Upper Atmosphere Is Cooling, Prompting New Climate Concerns
Are countries being pressured to help the world’s richest man? Or are they just making smart deals?
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"Throughout life, continue to invest in yourself."
Gregory Abel was born in 1962 in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Before his birth, his mother worked as a legal assistant and then became a stay-athome mom. His father was in sales. Find out more.
Budget, debt, taxes: François Bayrou wants a referendum
By:
The head of government is considering submitting a plan to reform the state and its spending to a referendum, convinced that the political parties represented in the National Assembly have discredited themselves. Regarding the end of life, the Prime Minister chooses "life" rather than "the end.“ Discover More
Shell's Potential BP Takeover: A Calculated Gamble or Strategic Masterstroke?
By Oliver Blake
The energy sector is bracing for seismic shifts as shell plc (SHEL) quietly enters feasibility discussions for a potential acquisition of BP (BP), a move that could reshape the global oil landscape. With BP’s stock price down nearly 30% over the past year and oil prices hovering below $70 per barrel a critical threshold for BP’s financial targets the stage is set for a high-stakes drama. But is this a bold bid to capitalize on weakness, or a risky maneuver that could backfire? Let’s dissect the data and dynamics at play.
BP’s decline is no accident. Under former CEO Bernard Looney, the firm embraced a net-zero pivot, divesting fossil fuel assets and pouring resources into renewables. The result? A prolonged underperformance that alienated investors. Current CEO Murray Auchincloss has reversed course, prioritizing oil and gas production, slashing share buybacks, and aiming to sell $20 billion in non-core assets by 2027. Yet these steps have failed to quiet critics. Activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which holds a 5% stake in BP,
has been relentless in demanding “transformative changes,” arguing BP’s strategy lacks urgency. The pressure has pushed BP’s market cap down to £56 billion half of Shell’s £149 billion valuation.
Shareholders are clearly signaling dissatisfaction, creating an opening for a suitor like Shell. Shell CEO Wael Sawan has long preached prudence, emphasizing “value hunting” through buybacks over megadeals. Indeed, Shell’s current $3.5 billion buyback program and strong Q1 results Continue Reading.
Le Journal du Dimanche
By The Horatio Alger Association
BP’s Struggles: A Stock in Freefall, Strategy in Question
Landmark economic deal with United States saves thousands of jobs for British car makers and steel industry
By: GDS
It is the second major trade announcement this week – following the India Free Trade Agreement on Tuesday Find out more.
Trump's economy is 'ready, willing and able'
By: Judy Shelton
Independent Institute senior fellow and 'Good as Gold' author Judy Shelton speaks with Fox News Digital about a 'dependable' U.S. dollar, gold futures and President Donald Trump's economic plan. Discover More
A Shaky U.S. Dollar Boosts Gold’s Role as an Alternative Reserve Asset
By: Paul Wong
Market turbulence in response to the Trump administration’s tariff actions is delivering a clear verdict: global investors are losing faith in the U.S. financial architecture, which no longer looks reliable. Gold is a major beneficiary of these events. While U.S. equities, bonds and the U.S. dollar were falling simultaneously in April, a phenomenon not seen since the 1970s, gold hit an all-time high, reaching $3,500, and its monetary appeal continues to grow. We believe the decline
of the U.S. dollar is driving the emergence of a multi-asset reserve system, which will likely need a widely accepted, neutral reserve asset as its key reference point. Gold is uniquely suited to this role. Spot gold soared by $165.14 per ounce (or 5.29%) in April to close the month at $3,288.71. Gold has risen each month in 2025, and by the end of April, it had increased 25.31% year-to-date. Gold had a wide trading range in April after briefly selling off along with most other assets
EU, Europe
How Europe should respond to the erosion of the dollar’s status.
Greater internationalisation of the euro requires a more resilient financial system for the region.
in a systemwide financial degrossing and deleveraging selling event. Gold reached a closing low of $2,983 in April before rallying to touch $3,500 in overnight Asian trading on April 22 as U.S. financial assets came under enormous stress. The volatile month of April began with President Trump's announcement of “Liberation Day” tariff rates, which shocked the markets with their extremely draconian levels and nonsensical calculation methods. Continue Reading.
The Last Pope Leo Had Some Great Takes on Socialism
By: Dominic Pino
The new pope is taking the regnal name Leo XIV. The last Pope Leo was in office from 1878 to 1903. Perhaps his most famous written work is Rerum novarum, an 1891 encyclical "on capital and labor" Find out more.
Migrants
will have to spend decade in UK before applying to stay
By: GOV.UK
The Immigration White Paper comes after net migration reached nearly one million in the year ending June 2023four times the levels seen in 2019. Discover More
Trump sees tariffs as an across-theboard global price reset, wherein the market, not the government, selects the firms that succeed behind America’s tariff wall.
Squaring the Trump Circle: Free Markets and Tariffs
By: Robert D. Atkinson
How does one account for the seeming contradiction that the Trump administration is the most free-market, smallgovernment administration since the Coolidge administration, yet tariffs are the core of its economic policy? How can key Trump economic advisors, like Kevin Hassett, a traditional Republican freemarket advocate, be such strong tariff advocates? Traditionally, free marketeers have advocated for market forces to determine the terms of trade both between
national economies (e.g., totally free trade with all nations) and within economies (e.g., limited regulations, no government programs to help industry, and a tax code that is neutral between industries and activities). Both are uniquely bizarre concepts, especially when taken to the extreme, as so many on the right are prone to do. In his own way, President Trump embraces this framework. Certainly, for trade within the United States, Trump wants to slash regulations, have
EU, Europe
How to solve the universities’ financial crisis
The current financial challenges facing UK universities are largely due to funding reforms implemented in 2012 and the decreasing government support since then.
a tax code that raises less money and is neutral between activities and industries, and get rid of “industrial policies.” For trade between countries, Trump rightly sees that market forces are not the dominant force: Other nations’ mercantilist protectionism is a major factor, too. So, Trump sees tariffs as an across-theboard global price reset, wherein the market, not the government, selects the firms that succeed behind America’s tariff wall. Continue Reading.
The Great Trump Tariff Rollback
The President started a trade war with Adam Smith. He lost.
By: The Editorial Board, WSJ
Rarely has an economic policy been repudiated as soundly, and as quickly, as President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs and by Mr. Trump’s own hand. Find out more.
How the Debt Ceiling Is Now Pouring Liquidity into Financial Markets, only to Suck it Back Out Very Fast Later this Year
By: Wolf Richter
That’s what is different this time, compared to the last two times. This time, financial markets are going to notice that $800 billion in liquidity getting sucked out in a short time. Discover More
The Brief
As the Trump administration changes existing tariffs and pursues new ones, there is significant interest in how much revenue tariffs are raising. The following charts are updated most weekdays to reflect the most up-to-date information available, sourced from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Statements.
How Much Are U.S. Tariffs Raising in Revenue?
By: Rachel Snyderman, Andrew Lautz, Caleb Quakenbush
Tariffs bring in revenue to the U.S. government. In the short term, the scale and timing of tariff revenue could affect the debt limit X Date, the day on which the U.S. government is unable to meet all its obligations in full and on time. Tariff revenue may also factor into Congress’ plans for 2025 reconciliation legislation to extend and expand on expiring tax cuts. (Tariffs imposed by the executive branch will not factor into Congressional Budget
Office scoring for a reconciliation bill unless tariff expansions are codified by Congress.)
To the extent new tariffs bring in significant revenue, they could reduce federal deficits and debt. Tariff policies will also influence short- and long-run business decisions about investment and hiring, which may impact other tax collections and spending. Tariff revenue has represented a small portion total of revenues collected
by the federal government in recent decades, as the chart below demonstrates. While overall federal revenues represent 17.1% of GDP, tariffs represent merely 0.3% of GDP. The Trump administration’s new tariffs may change that trend. CBO currently projects tariff revenue will equal $942 billion from FY2026-2035, though that projection does not incorporate any of the Trump administration’s recent tariff actions.
Continue Reading.
Herakles: Timeless Hero & Fashion Trendsetter
By: Lawrence Sekulich
Herakles (or Hercules) is the mythological archetype for a hero. His exploits, known as the Twelve Labors, set a benchmark for heroic behavior that is marked by courage, fearlessness, gallantry, and boldness. Find out more.
Which countries have the critical minerals needed for the energy transition?
By: Hannah Ritchie, Pablo Rosado Our World in Data
An overview of the distribution of critical minerals for clean energy. Discover More
Money museums provide a fascinating look at the past of currency, banking, and monetary systems.
Top 10 Money Museums to Explore Currency, History & Finance
By: Andrea Hooper
Exhibits display rare coins, old banknotes, and objects that inform us about how money shaped civilizations. Individuals can gain knowledge about the ancient ways of trade, techniques of counterfeiting, and the impact of monetary policy on economies. From gold coins of powerful empires to modern-day banknotes with sophisticated security features, these museums breathe life into the rich financial history. As a collector, history enthusiast, or simply someone who is interested, these museums offer
EU, Europe
an interesting journey through time showcasing the everchanging role of money in society. Here is the select list of 10 must-visit money museums worldwide for a fascinating journey through the history of currency, banking, and finance.
1. Smithsonian National Museum Of American History – The Value Of Money Exhibit, USA
2. Bank Of England Museum, UK
3. Money Museum At The Federal Reserve Bank Of Chicago, USA
5EU Q1 2024 versus 2025: Pricing shifts, HTA outcomes, and innovative drug trends
This analysis focuses on three key indicators, which include HTA outcomes in the 5EU.
4. Museum Of The National Bank Of Belgium, Belgium
5. Deutsche Bundesbank Money Museum, Germany
6. Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) Information Centre, Hong Kong
7. Oesterreichische Nationalbank Money Museum, Austria
8. Numismatic Museum Of Athens, GREECE
9. Museum Of American Finance, USA
10. The Royal Canadian Mint Museum, Canada Continue Reading.
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The Healthcare Agenda of Germany’s New CDU/SPD Coalition Government – A Point-by-Point Analysis of Key Policies and Their Potential Implications for Pharma and Med-Tech Companies
By: Dr. Frank Pflueger, Johannes Blaensdorf
"Key measures include reinforcing general practitioners as gatekeepers, expanding Hybrid-DRG hospital reimbursement Find out more.
Boston Scientific says sales could grow up to 17% this year
By: Sean Whooley
To offset the tariff impact, the company said it expects increased revenue performance. It also projects some targeted discretionary spend reductions to deliver more savings. Discover More
The hidden risks of tariffs in medical device supply chains
By Everstream Analytics
The medical device industry is a key element of modern healthcare, ranging from surgical instruments and diagnostic equipment to lifesaving implants and wearable health monitors. Supply chains generally today are incredibly global and interconnected, relying on a vast network of raw material suppliers, component manufacturers, and logistics providers across multiple countries. Medical device supply chains are no exception. Essential materials such as specialized plastics, metals, semiconductors, and
electronic components are often sourced from different regions, making the industry highly dependent on international trade.
As a result, this global reliance exposes the medical device sector to geopolitical and economic shifts, such as tariffs. While tariffs are a standard tool regulating global trade, they can have unintended consequences, especially for industries reliant on complex international supply chains.
In the medical device sector, tariffs can significantly disrupt
production, increase costs, and limit access to critical healthcare products. Additionally, tariffs can lead to regulatory delays and supply chain bottlenecks, further complicating an industry where efficiency and reliability are paramount. Therefore, businesses must develop strategic responses to mitigate these challenges, ensuring that essential medical devices and technologies remain accessible and affordable for the patients and healthcare providers who rely on them.
Continue Reading.
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European Energy Import Dependency
By Julianna Sterling
Using comprehensive data from Eurostat, this note documents a steady increase in energy import dependency of European Union nations over the past 30 years.
This trend arises even though energy usage itself has followed a hump shape over this period – an initial increase was followed by a subsequent reversal. Indeed, the energy efficiency of the European economy has risen notably over the period. Find out more.
Data Centers: A Field Guide
By: Robert A. James, Matt Olhausen and Samuel Bucher
By one count, worldwide there were some 11,800 data centers in early 2024. Within that census are facilities so small that they fit in office building closets, while others are among the largest manmade structures on the planet. Discover More
Xi Is Ratcheting Up China’s Pain Threshold for a Long Fight With Trump
By Josh Chin
As President Trump tries to play hardball in his trade war with Xi Jinping, he faces an adversary who has armed China to play a long and potentially painful game in its contest with the U.S. In the weeks since the U.S. president first slapped sky-high tariffs on China, Beijing has responded with defiance. A spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry posted on X footage from 1953 of Mao Zedong promising to fight to the end against U.S.led forces in the Korean War. “We are Chinese,” she wrote. “We don’t back down.” The Mao post and other
messages from Beijing highlight what China sees as one of its core advantages against the U.S.: While Trump and his Republican backers are vulnerable to the whims of American voters, the party that Mao built is deeply entrenched, having maintained power through more than seven decades despite war, famine, political upheaval and financial crises. Xi isn’t resting on those laurels. Since an earlier trade war during the first Trump administration, he has intensified his grip on the country’s leadership and spent lavishly reinforcing
the authoritarian tools that underpin the party’s longevity, including enhancements of the world’s most sophisticated systems for censorship and surveillance. The Chinese leader wants to harden his country specifically for a confrontation with the U.S., urging officials to engage in what he calls “extreme scenario thinking.” Trump has already struck a more conciliatory tone this week, saying he wants to enter into negotiations with Beijing and is willing to lower the 145% tariffs he has imposed on China in his second term Continue Reading.
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Bretton Woods Why the dollar?
The Bretton Woods conference produced a unique arrangement with the establishment of the International Monetary Fund, creating a framework for cooperation whereby countries abandoned their ability to adjust the value of their national currencies unilaterally. All currencies were fixed to the dollar. Find out more.
China launches major push to help Shanghai Gold Exchange compete with LME for pricing power
By:
The People's Bank of China and three other government departments will invest in the internationalization of the Shanghai Gold Exchange . Discover More
Milestones: 1969–1976
Nixon and the End of the Bretton Woods System, 1971–1973
By The Office of the Historian
On August 15, 1971, President Richard M. Nixon announced his New Economic Policy, a program “to create a new prosperity without war.” Known colloquially as the “Nixon shock,” the initiative marked the beginning of the end for the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates established at the end of World War II.
Secretary of the Treasury John Connally on the day that President Richard Nixon announced his New Economic Policy, August 15, 1971. (Nixon Presidential Library)
Under the Bretton Woods system, the external values of foreign currencies were fixed in relation to the U.S. dollar, whose value was in turn expressed in gold at the congressionally-set price of $35 per ounce. By the 1960s, a surplus of U.S. dollars caused by foreign aid, military spending, and foreign investment threatened this system, as the United States did not have enough gold to cover the volume of dollars in worldwide circulation at the rate of $35 per ounce; as a result, the dollar was overvalued.
Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson adopted a series of measures to support the dollar and sustain Bretton Woods: foreign investment disincentives; restrictions on foreign lending; efforts to stem the official outflow of dollars; international monetary reform; and cooperation with other countries. Nothing worked. Meanwhile, traders in foreign exchange markets, believing that the dollar’s overvaluation would one day compel the U.S. government to devalue it, Continue Reading.
Ernest Hoffman
By Ousmène Jacques Mandeng
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The Crisis of Culture
by Olivier Roy
By Dr Théo Blanc
The Crisis of Culture represents an ambitious attempt to provide an allencompassing theory of social and political trends in the global era. It also stands out in its ability to analyse controversial issues such as identity politics with neither nostalgia nor a reactionary attitude, nor unreflexive progressivism.
Find out more.
A User’s Guide to Wrecking the Global Financial System power
By: Niall Ferguson
Keynes predicted correctly that the government’s decision to return the pound to the gold standard would lead to “unemployment and industrial disputes,” “great depression in the export industries,” and “credit restriction.”
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The Pluralist Alternative To Neoliberalism
By Michael Lind
Thanks to rising inequality, sub-replacement fertility, and growing anti-system populism, technological civilization in the United States and worldwide is experiencing the latest of several historic crises that have occurred since the transition from agrarian to industrial economies that began in Britain, Western Europe, and the Northern United States two centuries ago. The central issue from the 1800s until the 2000s has been how to provide decent lives for the majority of people in machine-based societies who are proletarians
in the Roman sense wage workers who own little or no income-generating property and cannot survive without selling their labor to employers. Four solutions to the challenges of proletarianization have been offered since around 1800: producerism (sometimes called distributism), liberalism, collectivism (of which socialism is one version), and pluralism, which takes the form of corporatism in the economic realm.
The producerist ideal is a society with a majority of small, self-employed, selfsufficient producers.
The liberal ideal is a borderless world of autonomous individuals free to engage in contracts with one another to satisfy their economic and other desires. The collectivist ideal, in both its socialist and nonsocialist versions, is a centrally planned society ruled by an elite of wise, altruistic technocrats. Moral individualism is shared by producerism, liberalism, and collectivism alike. All three view the individual and the state a minimal state, in the case of liberalism as the basis of society.
Continue Reading.
This article is an American Affairs online exclusive, published December 20, 2021. Opinion
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Flows into Bunds and European sovereigns will remain consistent
By Geoffrey Yu
For now, we see stable to slightly negative currency flows in the euro. European equities will continue to benefit from longer-term domestic and cross-border interest. European sovereign fixed income for now is mostly attracting flows into Germany, and we reserve judgement on the notion that the euro area will benefit from mass rotation due to stronger safe-haven status. Find out more.
Green Trade in the Age of Protectionism: Thriving or Faltering?
By: Moonhee Cho
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced last year that the average global temperature has risen by more than 1.5°C compared to the late 1800s, the pre-industrial era. This exceeds the 1.5°C target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. Discover More
Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2025 update
By McKinsey Global Institute
Trade relationships are continuing to reconfigure, and changing geopolitics is a major reason. The United States has continued to shift trade away from China and toward other economies such as Mexico and Vietnam. In some cases, this is due to these economies forming an intermediate step in trade flows between China and the United States. European economies have moved away from trade with Russia and increased trade with other partners, notably the United States. Developing economies, rather than advanced ones, now account
for the majority of China’s imports and exports.
Economies such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Brazil, and India continue to strengthen trade ties across the geopolitical spectrum.
In view of widespread talk about friendshoring, nearshoring, decoupling, and derisking, the McKinsey Global Institute has been monitoring shifting trade patterns closely.
In a previous report, we found evidence of trade reconfiguring toward geopolitically closer partners.1 This is an update, examining 2024 data for the economies represented by
ASEAN, Brazil, China, Germany, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States.2 The pattern of reconfiguration has continued, but its character and pace differ among major economies. Trade binds economies around the world. Every major region relies on imports for more than 25 percent of its consumption of at least one type of critical resource, manufactured good, or service And even in sectors for which a region is a net exporter, it may still be dependent on imports for many crucial products. Continue Reading.
Trade reconfiguration continues along geopolitical lines, this update with 2024 data shows.
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EU-OSHA highlights impact of digitalisation on World Day for Safety and Health at Work
By EU-OSHA
AI and digital tools are revolutionizing occupational safety and health. Today, robots are operating in hazardous environments, doing the heavy lifting, managing toxic materials and working in extreme temperatures. Find out more.
Global Payments Announces Agreements to Acquire Worldpay and Divest Issuer Solutions
By Cameron Bready
Today marks a defining moment for Global Payments Inc. as we announce definitive agreements to acquire Worldpay from GTCR and FIS, while simultaneously divesting our Issuer Solutions business to FIS. Discover More
How data centers and the energy sector can sate AI’s hunger for power
By McKinsey Global Institute
How data centers and the energy sector can sate AI’s hunger for power
Surging adoption of digitalization and AI technologies has amplified the demand for data centers across the United States. To keep pace with the current rate of adoption, the power needs of data centers are expected to grow to about three times higher than current capacity by the end of the decade, going from between 3 and 4 percent of total US power demand today to between 11 and 12 percent in 2030.
Skyrocketing compute and data demands are being further accelerated by gains in computing capabilities alongside reductions in chip efficiency relative to power consumption. For instance, the amount of time central processing units need to double their performance efficiency has increased from every two years to nearly every three years. And providing the more than 50 gigawatts (GW) of additional data center capacity needed in the United States by the end of the decade would require an investment of more than $500 billion in data
center infrastructure alone. The power sector is rapidly becoming a protagonist in the AI story. Access to power has become a critical factor in driving new data center builds. As the power ecosystem grapples with meeting data centers’ voracious need for power, it faces substantial constraints, including limitations on reliable power sources, sustainability of power, upstream infrastructure for power access, power equipment within data centers, and electrical trade workers Continue Reading.
The growth of data centers and the adoption of AI rely on the availability of electric power. Opportunities for investors in power infrastructure and adjacent sectors are quickly emerging.
Capital Controls in Times of Crisis – Do They Work?
By IMFBOOKSTORE
This paper provides an analysis of the use and effects of capital controls in 27 AEs and EMDEs which experienced at least one financial crisis between 1995 and 2017. Find out more.
It's Too Late: The Changes Are Coming
By: Ray Dalio
Said more simply, enormous trade and capital imbalances are creating unsustainable conditions and major risks of being cut off, so they must come down. Discover
‘Preparedness, not prediction, is the watchword’
Preventing trade shocks from igniting the next financial crisis
By Udaibir Das
History has a habit of repeating itself, particularly with recent shifts in global trade and financial instability in developing economies. When the Latin American debt crisis hit in the 1980s, it was sparked by oil price shocks and deteriorating trade terms, and then made worse by an over-reliance on foreign, dollar-denominated debt. Decades later, the 1997 Asian financial crisis followed a similar script, with unsustainable current account deficits and risky currency exposures linked to trade flows and volatile capital.
Even the euro area debt crisis was rooted, in part, in persistent regional trade imbalances that pushed sovereigns and banks to the brink. These were no accidents or stand-alone events. They reveal a persistent threat that trade and, crucially, trade finance, can amplify underlying financial sector weaknesses. Currency mismatches, precarious dependence on the dollar and concentrated credit risks often lie dormant – until a trade shock wakes them up. Familiar tremors in today’s landscape
Vulnerabilities from trade shocks or a new global trade regime ripple outward, potentially crippling financial systems and inflicting serious harm on the broader economy. The echoes of the Covid-19 pandemic are still felt in fractured supply chains, brutally exposing the risks of narrow export bases. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent food and energy prices soaring, hammering the terms of trade for import-dependent nations. The financial sector fallout is increasingly visible, not least in the growing risk aversion surrounding trade finance. Continue Reading.
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“Looking to the future”: WHO symposium on modelling and optimizing the health and care workforce
By WHO
Health systems across the WHO European Region and globally continue to face critical challenges in attracting and retaining a resilient workforce to meet the growing demand for health and care services. Find out more.
European Immunisation Week 2025: EU4Health and Horizon Europe projects protecting the health of people of all ages
By: HaDEA
HaDEA manages many EU-funded projects and initiatives related to immunisation and vaccines.
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Seeking the next DeepSeek: What China’s generative AI registration data can tell us about China’s AI competitiveness
By Kendra Schaefer
In the early months of 2025, Chinese AI startup DeepSeek caught global observers off guard by releasing a highly advanced large language model (LLM) that matched top-tier Western offerings in both performance and scale. DeepSeek’s sudden and unexpected rise has highlighted a lack of clear understanding of China’s generative AI innovation landscape among investors, policymakers, and technology analysts outside of the country. But there is data set that can shed
considerable light on the generative AI models and AIpowered tools being developed in China. According to Chinese regulations, any company or organization launching AI tools that could have a significant impact on the general public must register each algorithm with China’s cyberspace regulator (CAC). That registration data is a matter of public record. Put more simply, the Chinese government maintains a comprehensive open list of generative AI tools released in China.
The list includes LLMs and other generative algorithms developed by all of China’s major AI players, as well as many you’ve probably never heard of, including: DeepSeek and other new-school AI startups like Baichuan and Moonshot AI Chinese internet platform giants like Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, Baidu, ByteDance, and NetEase Chinese hardware tech firms such as Huawei, iFlyTek, SenseTime, and others State laboratories, state-owned enterprises, Continue Reading.
Trivium China
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Chinese AI Will Match America's
By Lennart Heim
While Chinese models close the gap on benchmarks, the U.S. maintains an advantage in total compute capacity owning far more, and more advanced, AI chips. This compute advantage, if leveraged strategically, will play an extraordinary role in driving economic transformation, securing technological leadership, and shaping the global AI ecosystem. Find out more.
What Liberal Mark Carney’s election win in Canada means for Europe
This election may not only shape Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. Discover More
Trump to Soften Blow of Automotive Tariffs
By Gavin Bade
President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs he has imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the U.S., the White House said Tuesday.
The decision will mean that automakers paying Trump’s automotive tariffs won’t also be charged for other duties, such as those on steel and aluminum, according to people familiar with the policy.
The move would be retroactive, the people said, meaning that automakers could be reimbursed for such tariffs already paid. The 25% tariff on finished foreign-made cars went into effect early this month.
The administration will also modify its tariffs on foreign auto parts slated to be 25% and effective May 3 allowing automakers to be reimbursed for those tariffs up to an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made car for one year. The reimbursement
would fall to 2.5% of the car’s Tvalue in a second year, and then be phased out altogether.
The administration calculated the offset by applying 25% auto parts tariff to 15% of the value of a U.S.-assembled automobile in the first year, equaling 3.75% of the car’s value. In the second year, the offset is calculated by applying the 25% tariffs to 10% of the value of a U.S. assembled automobile, yielding 2.5% of the car’s value. Continue Reading.
By: Lucía Caballero
Illustration: Annie Zhao
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«The Fed’s stock of gold is a risk for the market»
The Market Strategist of the World Gold Council considers the recent correction of the precious metal to be short-lived. Rather, concerns about the world order increased the attractiveness of gold. Find out more.
Lessons from Early America’s Tariff Wars
By: John C. Pinheiro
There are three important lessons we can learn from this early American tariff debate. The first and most important lesson is that each system proposed in the 1790s, like all centralized systems of industrial policy and tariffs, allowed government to choose winners and losers.
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Are the dollar’s days really numbered?
By Mark Sobel
Questions about whether President Donald Trump’s tariffs spell the end of dollar dominance and the safe-haven status of US Treasuries elicited tremendous hand-wringing by market participants and officials at the International Monetary Fund-World bank spring meetings. And rightly so. But while critical and legitimate concerns have been raised about Trump’s chaotic actions and policies, and recent developments may indeed be setting in motion a gradual decline in dollar dominance, the hand-wringing is overdone. Fundamental
components of dollar dominance are under attack Since Trump’s disastrous tariff rollout, financial markets have understandably been on edge. A risk-off environment generally is seen as benefitting the dollar and bond prices. But in the latest period, stocks and bond prices fell sharply. Moreover, while most analysts had expected the dollar to rise alongside the announcement of tariffs, in fact the dollar fell, reflecting concerns that tariff policy would cause a recession and a ‘sell America’ loss of confidence in the administration’s chaotic
policy-making. Market participants are fully justified in worrying that dollar dominance may wane, and sharply, given that the administration appears uncommitted to protecting the properties that give rise to that dominance. The dollar’s global role is predicated not only on the huge size of the US economy, but also broadly sound macroeconomic policies, the depth, liquidity and openness of US capital markets, good rule of law, sound institutions and America acting as a trustworthy ally and partner. Continue Reading.
By Sylvia Walter Interview with John Reade, Expert for the Gold Market
‘Sell America’ and the news of dollar demise are overdone
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Paper Money as a Weapon of War
By Lawrence W. Reed
Ships of Britain’s massive Royal Navy, the largest in the world, inflicted great damage on American ports, property, and vessels during the years of the Revolution (1775–1783). Perhaps none of those ships wreaked more havoc than HMS Phoenix, and it accomplished its devious work not with a cannon but with a printing press. Find out more.
China's Global Energy Finance Database
By: Global Development Policy Center
Which countries + energy sectors have received finance from China's development finance institutions?
Our China's Global Energy Finance Database breaks down overseas lending for the years 2000-2023. Discover More
Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
By Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, Jenny Tang
Since 2018, the United States has imposed import tariffs ranging from 10 to 50 percent on goods including washing machines, solar panels, aluminum, steel, and roughly $250 billion worth of goods from China. In response, China, Canada, the European Union (EU), and Mexico have imposed retaliatory tariffs. Although the recent “phase one” deal between China and the United States has reduced tensions, most tariffs remain in place. In the past year, several academic papers have tried to estimate the incidence of these tariffs on goods prices.
In particular, Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy, and Khandelwal (2020) and Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein (2019) calculate category-level unit values and show that the extariff dollar prices of US imports that were targeted by tariffs did not fall relative to imports that were not targeted, which implies a nearly complete passthrough of the tariffs to duty-inclusive import prices. Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman, and Tang (forthcoming) use productlevel pricing data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to extend the finding of
complete passthrough of US import tariffs, demonstrate it does not reflect changes in the composition or quality of imported goods, and compare it to the rate of exchange rate passthrough. Further, we show that for US exports, unlike US imports, ex-tariff prices declined significantly for those goods facing tariffs erected by foreign countries. Finally, we use web scraped data to demonstrate that despite the large increase in tariff-inclusive prices paid by US importers, US consumers faced only mild price increases on affected goods. Continue Reading.
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US And China To Lead Growth In Nuclear Power For Data Centre Supply
By David Dalton
The contribution of nuclear power to the data centre electricity supply is likely to increase between 2030 and 2035, particularly in the US and China, driven mainly by the commissioning of small modular reactor (SMRs) Find out more.
«Note on the Greek economy»
By: Bank of Greece
Economic activity continued to expand at a satisfactory pace in 2024 (2.3%), outperforming the euro area average. HICP inflation came down fast from its 2022 peak due to falling energy prices in 2023, but it remained relatively elevated at 3.0% in 2024 due to persistent services inflation. In March 2025, HICP headline inflation rose slightly to 3.1% due to a major increase in unprocessed food inflation. Discover More
Are tariffs the new COVID-19 for manufacturers?
By Jan Burian
Just as COVID-19 sent shockwaves through global manufacturing forcing companies to accelerate digital transformation and prioritize resilience the current wave of tariffs is causing similar disruptions. Once again, manufacturers are being pushed to rethink cost structures, improve operational efficiency and safeguard long-term competitiveness. During the pandemic, companies had no choice but to fast-track digital, data-driven operations.
Even after the immediate crisis passed, many of those innovations became permanent fixtures. Now, amid rising tariffs and new trade barriers, manufacturers find themselves at another pivotal moment navigating a landscape where agility is not just an advantage, but a necessity. In an interconnected world, no manufacturer operates in isolation. While tariffs may offer short-term protection for U.S.-centric operations, few companies enjoy that luxury.
Modern products whether vehicles, electronics or industrial machinery rely on deeply interwoven global supply chains.
Restructuring or reshoring these networks is costly, timeintensive and often impractical. And with little clarity on how long current tariff regimes will last, manufacturers face a prolonged period of uncertainty.
Continue Reading.
The Trump administration’s tariff policies are forcing companies to better leverage AI tools to stay agile and quickly adapt to new challenges, writes Trask’s head of industry insights Jan Burian.
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Power and Financial Interdependence
By Brad SETSER
The link between financial self-reliance and geopolitical power has long been debated. The unbalanced Sino-American trade relationship has created asymmetric financial ties which generate potential sources of leverage for both parties and will not quickly disappear. Absent a clarifying major crisis, it will be difficult to definitively determine which party has greater leverage. Find out more.
Dollar’s global role: extraordinary privilege or burden?
By: Mark Sobel
Which is it – exorbitant privilege or burden? My view is that the debate is overdone and the dollar’s global financial status is a net plus for the US. It clearly entails burdens, a point ‘privilege’ proponents are reluctant to admit. But it also entails benefits. Discover More
Why the new growth chapter for EU manufacturing is set to be a slow burn
By Edse Dantuma
US protectionist policies have sabotaged new prospects of growth for European manufacturing. German investment plans and EU-wide increases in defence spending could provide a gradual boost, but we think significant growth is probably going to be a story for 2026
Just as a new growth phase seemed to be inching closer, European manufacturing is now facing a new era of trade turmoil. A longstanding decline in industrial production across the region emerged in the first quarter of
2023 – but just as we've started to see it bottoming out, US President Donald Trump's tariffs have taken the sector by storm.
Rising levels of trade uncertainty are now intensifying the pressure on both low confidence levels and a limited willingness toward investment, and this is bad news for goods-producing sectors like manufacturing. 20% reciprocal tariffs have been postponed for 90 days, but 25% tariffs on steel, aluminium, cars and auto parts remain in place for now.
Most other EU-manufactured goods are now subject to a 10% tariff. Still, February saw production in both the EU-27 and the eurozone rising to the highest level since August last year on the back of American frontloading. Improved purchasing power could translate into stronger consumer spending after a weak first quarter, but that more positive picture is now being clouded by tariff tensions and the weakening economic environment, both of which are seriously weighing on confidence. Continue Reading.
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The Limits of Business-as-Usual in AEO 2025
By Art Berman
The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2025 provides a solid baseline for understanding U.S. energy trends, but it’s built on a business-as-usual framework that filters out geopolitical, financial, governance, and ecological risks. It’s a conversation starter not a roadmap. In the real world, shocks and disruptions are standard fare. The future will likely be more chaotic than the AEO implies. Find out more.
Western Balkans Regular Economic Report - Spring 2025
By: World Bank Group
This edition’s spotlight focuses on green jobs and provides policy options that could help labor forces in the region cope with adverse weather events and be ready for new employment opportunities driven by the green transition. Discover More
April 2025 update to TIGER: The world economy shudders and could stall
By Eswar Prasad, Caroline Smiltneks
Τhe timing could hardly have been less propitious. Just as the world economy was showing signs of stabilizing, the odds of a policy-induced global recession sparked by escalated financial market volatility and policy uncertainty have risen significantly. The latest update of the Brookings-FT TIGER (Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery) reveals a mixed picture, with the financial index crumbling and private sector confidence plunging even as macroeconomic data, which lag the other indicators, suggest a more benign scenario.
The Trump tariffs have disrupted world trade and set off turmoil in financial markets, damaging growth prospects that had looked promising at the start of the year.
The U.S. economy performed well in the first quarter of 2025, with robust output and employment growth through March and with inflation gradually drifting down. All of that changed in April with Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs aimed at practically all U.S. trading partners. Financial markets were severely roiled, with the subsequent pause on tariffs (except those applied to
imports from China) and various carve-outs doing little to quell the whiplash effect. The uncertainty has severely dented consumer confidence and is likely to take a toll on business investment and employment growth. The Federal Reserve’s ability to support the economy and forestall financial turmoil will be constrained by the passthrough of tariffs into domestic inflation. The tariff bloodbath has elevated the probability of the U.S. economy stalling, even as U.S. policymaking seems ever more unpredictable and whimsical.
Continue Reading.
Weekly Read: The eight OPEC+ countries reaffirm commitment to market stability on current healthy oil market fundamentals and adjust production upward.
Editor's note: In collaboration with the Financial Times (FT), Eswar Prasad of Brookings and Caroline Smiltneks of Cornell have constructed a set of composite indexes that track the global economic recovery.
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Proof Trump Has No Idea How the Trade Deficit Works
By Jason Furman
"America’s trade deficit was made here in America in tandem with its greedy twin, the budget deficit, which requires large inflows of foreign funding. The twin problems can .. be addressed by living more within our means, something the federal government is utterly failing to do" Find out more.
Why Reciprocal Trade Negotiations Will Fail
By: Richard Epstein
Only multilateral arrangements can foster growth and overcome irrelevant trade deficits.
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US tariff threat increases recession risks in Europe
By Laura Perez Martinez, Ruosha Li
Since taking office, US President Donald Trump has announced a series of new tariff threats that are unprecedented in recent history in terms of their scope and scale. For Europe, they include tariffs of 20% on European Union countries, 32% on Switzerland, 16% on Norway and 10% on the UK. For the EU, this 20% rate would apply to around €290bn of the goods it exports to the US. When including some €90bn of exports already hit by earlier tariffs on automobiles, steel and aluminum, roughly 2% of EU gross domestic product is now subject to US tariffs.
The president’s decision to authorise a 90-day ‘pause’ on the most recent reciprocal tariffs drew a positive response from financial markets. The EU has also said it will attempt to negotiate with the US administration over the coming weeks. But despite the back and forth, it appears likely that US tariffs in some shape or form will be a durable feature of the trading landscape. Sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, energy and energy products could also be subject to tariffs in the future. For Europe’s open economies, the near-term economic effects will only be mitigated by
greater defence and infrastructure spending. Based on tariff announcements to date, Ireland, Slovakia, Germany, Hungary, Italy and Austria appear most exposed given their value-added exports to the US make up more than 1% of their GDP. Ireland would bear the brunt of a US decision to extend tariffs to pharmaceuticals given the total value-added exports to the US account for around 8% of its GDP; Denmark is also exposed at around 2% of GDP. The credit effects for companies will be more material.
Continue Reading.
Ranked: Global Share of Manufacturing Value, by Country
