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D/2021/45/582 – ISBN 978 94 014 7210 4 – NUR 801 Cover and interior design: Peer De Maeyer Cover illustration: Axelle Vanquaillie Back cover portrait: An Clapdorp Ecosystem Canvas visuals (p. 226 / fragments on p. 246-249, p. 263, p. 283, p. 329 / p. 318 / p. 330 / p. 332 / back cover): Tim Tondeleir | Big Boom © Rik Vera & Lannoo Publishers nv, Tielt, 2021. LannooCampus Publishers is a subsidiary of Lannoo Publishers, the book and multimedia division of Lannoo Publishers nv. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or made public, by means of printing, photocopying, microfilm or any other means, without the prior written permission of the publisher. LannooCampus Publishers Vaartkom 41 box 01.02 3000 Leuven Belgium www.lannoocampus.com
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P.O. Box 23202 1100 DS Amsterdam Netherlands
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R I K VE R A
The Guide to the Ecosystem Economy Sketchbook for Your Organisation’s Future
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“Start as a brush and become the canvas.” Dendermonde, 18th June 2021 (I almost wrote the year 2 AC, C designating Corona)
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Intro Damned hard work The most difficult part of writing a book is (surprise) actually writing the book; the second most difficult part is finishing it. In my younger days, I enjoyed painting. I remember that every time I painted, there came a moment when I could say: this is it. One more stroke of the brush would ruin the whole thing. It is what it is; let us call this a finished painting. I had absolutely no problem with stepping back, leaving the painting on its own, out there in the open, naked and vulnerable, to be seen, perceived and judged by others. Writing a book seems to be more difficult. If I had to guess why, I would say that it has something to do with the overview. One can take a step back and look at a painting. Squinted eyes, a frown on your face, head tilted a little to the left, leaning backwards, your right hand under your chin and a brush held in your left. In that moment, you can almost trade places with the person who will see the painting – you are no longer the painter. But you can’t do that with a book. I can’t in any case. I don’t see the whole book. I see fragments, bits and pieces, extracts and ideas. (If you asked me where I refer to antifragility, my best estimate would be that it is somewhere in Chapter 5.) I can’t step into the shoes of the reader. Whenever I try to see it through a reader’s eyes, I am inclined to write some extra lines here and there. It seems like a book is never ready to be perceived and judged by the wild wide world out there. But you can’t keep on writing. About a week ago, I called The Guide to the Ecosystem Economy a book. I said it was done. I had it printed in the format of a book, smiled, relaxed and promised myself that this was it. I would not touch it any more. The only thing I still needed to do was write a foreword. You know, the “thank people introduction” to the book where you have to credit everybody who contributed to the book and try not to forget anyone.
Intro
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In other words: that minefield of human interaction. The book itself was finished, I pressed “send” and the manuscript was in the book publisher’s inbox. That was it. A heavy weight fell off my shoulders. I had not slept much in those last few weeks. A few days after saying “here you go” to the book, my body told me that it had been a hell of a journey and stole my most important instrument for a couple of days: my voice. For a while, I was the voiceless keynote speaker. Nature always wins.
Hurricane Today, on 18th June 2021, I had a conversation about ecosystems with Nina at nexxworks, Jeroen and Esther at Bol.com (a company I refer to in this book) and Matthew Brennan, a renowned speaker and writer focusing on Chinese mobile technology and innovation. His book, Attention Factory (the story of TikTok & China’s ByteDance), is a mustread. You can try to draw links between my view on ecosystems and that “attention factory”. It is an overwhelming illustration of the building blocks and dynamics I describe. It was the type of conversation one could have recorded to be viewed by the whole world, because it grew organically into a deep and profound session on all things related to big data, AI, algorithms, the potential creepiness of being too close to customers (who want to be treated like an individual), double flywheels, partnerships, engaged customers, user-generated content, the building blocks of an ecosystem and of course how to build one. We were five like-minded souls with the same drive and passion, inspiring one another. For the duration of that conversation, I knew I had to hold my horses. I told myself: “Rik, your book is finished. You are not going to touch it any more. Don’t even think about it. No. No. No.” It was a perfect storm inside my head, but in some way I could find the very eye, the place full of calm. I was pretty proud of myself. I would not have to run to the publisher and shout out loud: “Stop the printing process, I have some new stuff that needs to be in the book no matter what.” But just when I thought I had survived this hurricane of thoughts, ideas and insights, Matthew said one thing, one little thing, that was enough to push me out of the eye of the storm and into internal mayhem. I was dragged into the danger zone, my head spinning, my feet unable to
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stay on the ground, my body being lifted into the air to be thrown down to earth, bruised and battered. What he said felt like the very summary of my book. It was the key to my struggle in chapter 9. I admit that I had originally envisioned chapter 9 as a manual, a recipe, a step-by-step guide on how to build an ecosystem. But building an ecosystem is not about following a recipe. Matthew was talking about TikTok and said: “They started like the brush, and evolved into the canvas.”
The summary And I just knew: that is the summary. That is what my book is all about: why and how to evolve from being a simple brush into a canvas on which anything can happen. As you might have guessed, seeing as you are reading this in my book, I shouted: “Dear publisher, stop for a moment! There is something that needs to make the book no matter what.” I told Matthew Brennan that, by providing me with this metaphor, I had to thank him for ruining and making my day at the same time. “Can I quote you on this?” I asked. “I will refer to you and your book,” I said. (I almost said please, a word I hardly ever use.) He agreed. In my head I was dancing. Straight after this energising conversation, I grabbed my computer and started doing what I had sworn I wouldn’t do: I wrote a few hundred extra words for the book that was supposed to be finished. While I was writing I received an email from Matthew. Before I turn to the quote itself, I have to share something else that struck me in his email: “It’s in Chapter 5 somewhere.” This quote by Alex Zhu, the former CEO of TikTok, is exactly what the over 250 pages of my book are all about: “When you want to grow early on, you want to be a brush, meaning you have to be very specific; you have to solve a specific need very well… Later you want to be a canvas; you want all kinds of things to happen on this blank canvas.”
Intro
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Preface I bring good news for companies big and small. If, after reading the first chapters, you want to become an ecosystem, a canvas on which all types of stuff can happen (business models that bring money), or you want to become some of that stuff that happens on the canvas, the simple message is this: yes, you can. Is there a better way to open this book than by saying that you can do it? Because right now, you are a brush. Read the book, get to know and understand the building blocks and the dynamics of an ecosystem and then… just start building it. Like a surfer riding one of those gigantic waves in Nazaré, there is no stopping halfway. This is a preface, so I need to start to thank people. As I said in the preface of my first book, I am a dreamer. Writing The Guide to the Ecosystem Economy, I have not only been writing about crazy surfer dudes, I have been one myself. Managers The Day After Tomorrow was a calm sea when I compare it to the content and dynamics of this book. I have had the guts (and the complete and utterly stupid craziness) to surf this gigantic wave of platforms, ecosystems, canvasses, big data, AI, customer-centricity, engaged and empowered people and their impact on people, business and society and I have to admit that there have been many moments when I thought “What the heck was I thinking?”, but I knew I had to surf that whole wave. There was no giving up. I am a dreamer. When dreamers want to realise their crazy dreams, they need warmth, love and support. Many people have been patient enough to live with the many mood swings of a writer, which are worse than four seasons in one day (or they have just ignored them), and have not stopped pampering me with warmth and love: my wife Christel (who is also kind of acting as the CFO of my business) and my children Lisse and Lore. Without Stephanie, who is running my company as if it were her own, I would have been drowning in all the practicalities that are part of being a keynote speaker, off- and online; and without Alanah
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(only she knows how important she has been in the writing process), this book would have been finished in 2035 (that is: never). If I had never met Peter and Steven sometime in 2015, my business life might have taken a completely different direction, I guess. They were, and still are, my heroes and role models. Thanks buddies, and thanks to the whole nexxworks crew and community. Speaking of communities: in January 2021 I wrote a white paper called 2020. The year of inspiration, which you can still download from my website www.rikvera.com. That led to a tsunami of online events, webinars, jam sessions or whatever we called those digital meetings. I have to thank all those who participated and shared ideas, challenges, questions and remarks, as all of them contributed to my writing process. Finally, I want to repeat the words I used in the preface of Managers The Day After Tomorrow, which is a long version of the preface of this new book. “We have a crushing responsibility. We need to shape the world for the sake of our children and grandchildren. All of us. Including the managers of today and tomorrow. I hope they will do so with The Day After Tomorrow in mind. I hope that they can help their companies adapt to the new world in which my grandchildren will grow up.” With this in mind, I dedicate this book to Sam, Line and Nout, my grandchildren.
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Contents Intro 5 Damned hard work 5 Hurricane 6 The summary 7 Preface 8
1. Reality 17 San Francisco, March 2020 Dendermonde, December 2020 San Francisco, March 2020 San Francisco, March 2020 Dendermonde, December 2020 As a new chapter opens, another closes Has the automotive chapter of history come to a close? COVID-19 didn’t break the system; it exposed the broken system The automotive industry is a dinosaur Society is the foundation of business The future of mobility is ACES Responding to what the customer wants If you want to be customer-centric, don’t ask the customer Reimagining mobility through the lens of customer-centricity Reinvent the business model to stay relevant Existing industries will be devastated Will you throw in the towel?
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2. Undoing 47 Chaos – unwanted but necessary 49 1. Communication – from analogue to digital and back (or not?) 53 2. The internet was stolen 61 3. Our planet does not have an infinite supply of resources 71 COVID-19 has presented us with a rare opportunity 72
3. Survival 75 Surf’s up To be or not to be A surfer’s mindset The Great Wave The Great Wave and You Surfing is fun The wake-up call Why companies didn’t really develop their Day After Tomorrow The old economy Time – the new currency Human behaviour is unpredictable The disruptors Let’s turn the tide Different, yet the same New, scaled, impersonal A red ocean of frustrated customers Bridging the gap CUSTOMER-centricity Are you really customer-centric? Empowered people give and receive Boosting the power of connection By users for users Tap into that potential From superficial data to real data Return on investment Don’t just create an illusion, create the digital dimension Business with HEART
77 78 79 80 80 81 82 82 84 85 86 88 90 92 93 95 96 96 101 102 102 103 105 106 107 109 112
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4. Storm 115 The Twilight Twenties 123 Climate change 125 Social climate 128 Migration 130 Social migration (aka. Social mobility) 132 Urban living 134 Urban community 135 Pandemic 136 A crystal ball 137 Hope and a new toolkit 138
5. Resilience 141 Chernobyl The mistakes of Chernobyl What happened to Nokia? The Chernobyl Syndrome Culture eats strategy for breakfast Rephrasing the question In the beginning, there was the VOC First fragile, then robust The legend of the antifragile Reductionism brings order – until reality sets in Analysing antifragile DNA Antifragile DNA Ecosystems are the answer Adapting to change Humans vs computers A dynamic balance Building your future
143 143 145 147 148 150 151 152 156 159 161 165 165 166 168 169 170
6. Understand 173 Sporting magic The circular economy and ecosystems are not made equal ReGen Villages – an example of an ecosystem that combines nature, society and technology The political framework is replaced by an algorithm
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It’s not all blue skies, still waters and plain sailing Looking to nature for inspiration Inspired ecosystems The structure of an ecosystem The building blocks
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7. Learn 193 Why you should measure your organisation’s Net Curiosity Score (NCS) Back to the beginning The act of learning The importance of learning Business learning Handling a large number of variables Optimisation is complex Complex problem solving The small is the same as the whole I’m late, I’m late for a very important date Smart ecosystems
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8. Participate 213 Meeting Tony Hsieh from Zappos Building a platform designed to serve people Traditional companies laid the groundwork for platform companies to step in The ice age of customer engagement What is a double flywheel? How do we create one? Utilising the idle capacity Don’t look at the appearance, delve into the structure The TREE formula Creating an algorithm that works for your customers Buy/hire an algorithm Build the algorithm yourself Be clear about the reward structure Rather than create your own, you can participate in one to get off the starting line Patience is a necessary virtue
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9. Build 241 No magic recipe, but a set of ingredients mixed with one basic principle Connect with the outside world Start with what you have Build an army of data collecting machines Utilise any idle capacity Data is like the gift of sight Think about your goal What sensors do you already have? Using data to connect the dots Two-way communication Engage and use (but don’t abuse) your customers What do you get out of your application? Not all data will be relevant all the time Managing your networks The platform serves a dual purpose The platform in the eyes of the consumer The platform in the eyes of the participant One platform – two functions Ensuring a delicate balance The platform isn’t the money making central machine you might have expected It’s not about the spider, it’s about the web
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10. Guide 267 Idle capacity is there, if only you see it Making mobility work for people Aligning goals across the board Solve problems before you start Protect data while making it available to all participants Establish the infrastructure needed to fulfil your goals Don’t sit still, grow with the changes The three dogmas for the ecosystem to live by Potential problems you need to be aware of Lay the groundwork for a healthy and sustainable ecosystem Understand the components that make up the ecosystem
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A well-governed ecosystem maintains the balance between autonomy and collaboration The ground rules of autonomy The ground rules of collaboration Rules aren’t enough, you must share a set of values Working together for the survival of the ecosystem
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11. Exemplify 291 But I’m just a one-person business, I don’t want to grow 293 Whatever your size, you have the advantage (and disadvantage) 294 Let the data guide you 296 Bol.com – from retailer to platform 296 Using a digital twin to enhance market research 298 If there’s one thing you mustn’t forget, it’s to put the customer first 299 Don’t step back and make the same old mistakes 301 There is idle capacity everywhere we look 303 Think differently. Engage, don’t oblige 304 Managers The Day After Tomorrow, the shift in communications 306 A journey with no beginning or end 309 Where will we be in five years’ time? 310
11.5. Work 315 Day 1 – Setting the scene Day 2 – Becoming an ecosystem Day 3 – Next Steps
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Endnotes 339
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Reality “Either you deal with what is the reality, or you can be sure that the reality is going to deal with you.” ALEX HALEY
featuring: a black swan the end of horse(-)power a broken system the gift of time a metal burden the chicken or the egg a dead-end train
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San Francisco, March 2020 It’s the first week of March 2020. I’m on a ferry in San Francisco Bay. As the day draws to a close, the air is calm with hardly any wind. The water in the bay is as dark and flat as a black mirror. It’s getting cold out on the upper deck where we are drinking that Mexican beer, the one with the same name as the virus that has just escalated to a pandemic. We are laughing and having fun. In that moment, we don’t realise how serious this big virus with a little name is nor how devastating it will be for people, society and business. How could we know that this thing would change our world and have such an overwhelming impact?
The sky is blue and as the sun sets over the Golden Gate Bridge to our left, we take pictures with our smartphones. No social distancing yet. No masks. Just a bunch of people having fun, enjoying the moment and the stunning view. The boat leaves a V-shaped wake behind it, stark white in the dark blue ice-cold water. In the distance, San Francisco bathes in the waning orange glow of the sun. As we celebrate this powerful moment, a whale’s tail fin breaks the surface of the water. We have another beer and realise that this may be our last trip for a long time. Since 2015, I have travelled to this vibrant city a few times a year. It’s like my second home. I am in love with the spirit of the Valley
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and the no-nonsense attitude of the people who live here – how conquering the world and beating old and sleepy companies and business models is just what they do. It hurts to know I will not be back before summer. Little did I know at the time that it would end up being much longer than that.
Dendermonde, December 2020 I am rewriting this first chapter for the seventeenth time just before 2020 turns into 2021. Since March, I have barely left the house, making only one trip to Vienna. Yesterday we started the first round of vaccinations in Belgium. I built a studio at home so that I could continue giving my keynotes. My words and ideas are travelling the planet, but my body is locked inside this small bubble. Sometimes I feel as restless as a lion in a zoo. I have nothing to worry about, but I miss the thrill of survival.
San Francisco, March 2020 Two days ago, I celebrated my 57th birthday in San Francisco. This evening, however, we are having dinner at a small harbour on the other side of the Bay. We enjoy our aperitifs on the restaurant’s terrace overlooking the harbour and San Francisco in the far distance. This evening,
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