ELSEVIER - Utilizing HAZUS and PACER SURGE to map and characterize hospitals in Illinois within the

Progress in Disaster Science 4 (2019) 100048

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Progress in Disaster Science journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/pdisas

Utilizing HAZUS and PACER SURGE to map and characterize hospitals in Illinois within the New Madrid seismic zone ⁎

Matthew Stumpf a, Apostolis Sambanis b, , Michael Cailas b a b

University of Illinois at Chicago, College of Dentistry, Department of Pediatric Dentistry, United States of America University of Illinois at Chicago, School of Public Health, Division of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, United States of America

A R T I C L E

I N F O

Article history: Received 18 June 2019 Received in revised form 26 September 2019 Accepted 29 September 2019 Available online 21 October 2019 Keywords: New Madrid seismic zone Healthcare facility Disaster preparedness

A B S T R A C T

Purpose: To highlight the need for utilizing disaster software to aid hospitals for disaster preparedness, specifically an earthquake occurring in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ is an active fault in central United States that is currently at a relatively high risk of experiencing a significant earthquake within the next 50 years. Results: Using the HAZUS mapping software, 40 healthcare facilities in Illinois were identified that fall within the NMSZ. Using the National Center for the Study of Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response (PACER) SURGE software, it was determined that those healthcare facilities have a surge capacity of 272 people. Discussion: Healthcare facilities could benefit from preparing more for high likely disaster events, such as an earthquake in the NMSZ. A surge capacity of 272 people only accounts for a very small percentage of the population of this area, and it therefore may be important to increase hospital capacity for such an event. Hospitals can also invest in improving their infrastructure to reduce damages and potential loss of life.

1. Introduction Natural disasters should be a top priority in the risk assessment for all critical infrastructure, but it is especially significant for hospitals. Hospitals are at a much higher risk for loss of life, the most severe outcome during any threat (Church, Scaparra, and Middleton [4]). The people located in hospitals are already in a compromised condition making it more difficult to move them to a safer location. Forecasting disasters, to signal a warning, is especially important due to the time needed for evacuation or shelter. Disasters, such as earthquakes, which offer no warning, could be especially devastating if it were to strike near a hospital. Therefore, mapping the most likely area that an earthquake would strike is of extreme importance to properly prepare in order to reduce the damage and loss of life [9]. The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is located in the central United States compromising eight states: Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi (Fig. 1). There were three major earthquakes to strike this area between December 1811 and February 1812 (Fig. 2). The magnitudes of the earthquakes were 7.5, 7.5, and 7.7. Luckily, the population in this area was much more sparse and therefore there was less to be damaged. A report created by the University of Illinois in 2009 describes that if an earthquake of similar magnitude to those from 1811 to 1812 was to occur, there could cause damages up to $300 billion, damage to 130 hospitals, 86,000 casualties, and 3500 fatalities [6]. ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: asamba2@uic.edu. (A. Sambanis).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100048 2590-0617/Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

While there are some that believe the NMSZ is no longer active and the current activity is only the aftershocks of the 1811–1812 earthquakes, most agree that the NMSZ is still active. Researchers analyzed the seismic records and concluded that the current seismic activity could not be aftershocks because there are still relatively high seismic rates, which would not be consistent with aftershocks this long past the main earthquake [14]. The original clumping of aftershocks in 1812 should have produced significantly more aftershocks before this time, as well. Therefore, they believe there is still active stress at the fault. Additionally, there are many human activities that may induce seismic activity [2]. Mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing can all trigger an earthquake and therefore should be considered when performing risk assessments in areas with these activities [5]. Numerous studies have found that hospitals are neither properly equipped nor properly prepared to respond to a natural disaster, specifically during an earthquake. Farmer and Carlton concluded that hospitals have many shortcomings in terms of disaster preparedness [7]. Hospitals were ineffective at initiating communication and obtaining aid from higher levels of organization. The lack of portability is also significant for the hospital since it is difficult to transport patients or services. This specific problem will create immediate problems with recovery since current patients and people injured during the disaster will have difficulty transferring to an unaffected hospital [16]. Most significantly, since this problem is correctable, is the lack of education and ability to implement disaster plans during disaster events and training exercises. Gin et al. [10] performed exercises to assess disaster response and found hospitals struggled to identify the top priorities.