13th Annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference
The Changing Economic Outlook: Worrying About the Wrong Recession
The U.S. and Inland Empire economies have recovered from the pandemic-driven recession, but the excessive fiscal stimulus that was hosed out across the nation during the crisis has left us with overheated, overstimulated conditions. With aggregate demand at a white-hot level, and the nation running at capacity, inflation is soaring and interest rates rising even as the trade deficit has grown to its second highest level ever.
These clear symptoms of overheating are being widely interpreted as signs of a near-term recession. According to the Center for Economic Forecasting’s renowned economists, the true risks lay further down the road. But as the collective focus remains on the immediate threat of recession, the unaddressed imbalances within the U.S. economy continue to grow, raising the risk of a very real recession in the future.
https://forecastingconference.ucr.edu
