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POLICY BRIEF
THE ECONOMIC COST OF ICE ENFORCEMENT IN LOS ANGELES REGION When federal immigration agents raid a neighborhood, fear spreads far beyond those directly targeted — parents keep children home, families avoid grocery stores and small businesses watch customers disappear. This brief summarizes new research that traces what happened to foot traffic and consumer spending in immigrant-heavy Los Angeles–area neighborhoods after a major ICE enforcement operation was publicly announced on May 14, 2025.
WHAT THE DATA SHOWS Using anonymized cellphone mobility records and credit and debit card transaction data, the study compares neighborhoods with high concentrations of Latin American-born residents against those with few such residents, before and after the enforcement announcement. Foot Traffic: Weekly visits to businesses in immigrant-heavy neighborhoods fell 58 percent over two months. In neighborhood retail corridors, the drop reached 8-10 percent and remained depressed well after enforcement ended. Consumer Spending: Spending in highexposure neighborhoods fell 20–25 percent within four to six weeks — a sustained contraction, not a brief blip. Placebo tests re-running the same analysis for the same week in 2024 (when no enhanced enforcement occurred) show zero effect, confirming the results are real and not seasonal.
BY THE NUMBERS
5-8%
Decline in weekly foot traffic in immigrant-heavy neighborhoods
8-10%
Foot traffic decline specifically in neighborhood retail corridors
20-25%
Drop in consumer spending within 4–6 weeks of enforcement
$626M
Estimated lost retail sales across LA–OC metro in just eight weeks
$60M
Estimated lost sales tax revenue across the two counties
AUTHORS T. William Lester, UC Irvine; Matthew Wilson, University of Illinois, Chicago; Eli Knaap, UCI