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Florida & Metro Forecast 2016-2019

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published September 2016

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Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F LO R I DA F O R E C A S T 2016 - 2019 S e pte m be r 2 016 R e po r t

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2016 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Maegan Alexis Trinidad, Researcher Coulter Small, Researcher Colin Lancaster, Researcher Brandt Dietry, Researcher Custom illustration by Georgia Whalen, New York This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ€™ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-13 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 14-19

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 20-28 Florida News Summaries....................................... 29 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 30-34 Gainesville......................................................... 35-39 Jacksonville....................................................... 40-44 Lakeland............................................................ 45-49 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 50-54 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 55-59 Ocala................................................................. 60-64 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 65-69 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 70-74 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 75-79 Tallahassee........................................................ 80-84 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 85-89 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 90

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H I G H LI G HTS O F TH E S E P TE M B E R 201 6 F LO R I DA FO R ECA ST 201 6 -201 9 • C hicken Little forecasting: declare the sky is falling after being struck by a single acorn. However, if it’s raining acorns and you’re wondering if the scrub oak is about to fall and cut off the power to Florida’s economic recovery, that’s a reasonable concern. • H ousing prices have been rapidly rising, but even 1.5 years of double-digit single-family home price appreciation are still not enough to lift 14.0% of Florida’s mortgage holders above water in their home loans. • F rom 2016-2019, Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 2.7%. • R eal Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.1% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017. It will expand 2.6% in 2018 before growth eases further to 2.4% in 2019. Average growth during 2016-2019 is expected to be 0.7 percentage points faster than our forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over the same period. • P ayroll job growth in Florida is robust and continues to outpace national job growth. Yearover-year growth should average 2.9% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017, 1.3% in 2018, and 1.1% in 2019. • L abor force growth in Florida will average 2.0% from 2016-2019. Consistent robust payroll job creation has bolstered Florida’s labor market. The improved prospects for success will put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment while attracting out-of-state job seekers as well. • Th is same labor force growth makes the task of lowering the state’s unemployment rate more challenging. As a result, the unemployment rate should hover around 4.7% in 2017, then gradually rise through 2019, averaging 5.1% in that final year of our forecast horizon. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2016-2019 are Construction (4.9%), Professional & Business Services (3.7%), Leisure & Hospitality (2.0%), Education & Health Services (2.0%), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.8%). • Housing starts growth stagnated in 2013-2014. The pace of starts will increase going forward but not fast enough to meet growing near-term demand for single-family housing. Total starts will be 114,100 in 2016, 138,000 in 2017, 151,200 in 2018, and 156,900 in 2019. • Real personal income growth decelerated after 2015 and will average 5.2% during 20162019, with 5.3% growth in 2015 easing to 5.5% growth in 2019. Florida’s average growth will exceed the national rate by 0.5 percentage points over that four-year span. • R etail sales will grow at an average pace of over 4.5% during 2016-2019, boosted by the strong recovery in Florida’s labor market and rising home values.

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Chicken Lit tle Forecasting Or

Acorns Keep Falling on My Head I have never been a Chicken Little forecaster.

Chicken Little, as you may well know, is a traditional folk tale. It is known outside of the United States as Henny Penny. It is the story of a chicken who, while on a walk in the woods, is struck on the head by a falling acorn. Frightened by the falling acorn, Chicken Little screams out, “Help! Help! The sky is falling! I have to go tell the king!”

r we Slo.S. Jobth U row G

The group of fowl runs afoul of Foxy Loxy who asks them where they are rushing to on such a fine day. They tell him the terrible news and he offers to lead the feathered fivesome to the king. Instead of taking them to the king, he leads them straight to his den where he presumably enjoys a meal that would put former NFL head coach John Madden’s famous Turducken (a chicken stuffed in a duck stuffed in a turkey) to shame, as the excitable birds are never seen again.

I’ve never been called Dr. Doom (Professor Pollyanna, perhaps). There are plenty of others, however, who are regularly declaring every acorn as the harbinger of severe recession, if not end times. As the idiom goes, “Even a broken clock is right two times a day,” and 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

Can ad a

zil’s n Braessio Rec

She runs off in a panic and along the way encounters several of her friends: Henny Penny, Ducky Lucky, Goosey Loosey, and Turkey Lurkey. They all join in on her frantic I Connves dash to tell the king tra tm cti ent this horrible news ng that the sky is falling. Unfortunately, none of them make it to tell his Royal Highness the news.

since recessions are inevitable, those constantly predicting the imminence of the next one will eventually be correct.

Recession has made its way into the lexicon of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ publication in 2016 but not because of a single acorn. Instead, it has been a steady stream of acorns that is responsible for the entrance of recession into the dialogue surrounding our economic outlook for the United States and Florida. a’s Chinebt D ble Bub

DebGreek t Cr isis Brexit

er ng lar o r St . dol U.S

Some of these acorns are more relevant to Florida’s economy than to the national economy and many are global in nature. Like an industrious squirrel, we have gathered these acorns and present them in the paragraphs that follow.

An example is the unfolding Zika crisis that poses a greater risk to Florida’s tourism sector and economy than to the a Zikrus national economy. With the Vi U.K. health service warning its citizens against travelling to Florida and the potential impact on young families choosing not to visit because of the horrific effects the virus has on l ica inty t i unborn children, this l Po erta c acorn has the potential Un to hit tourism in Central and South Florida particularly hard.

Brazil’s economy is in a historic recession, and its currency has collapsed in value against the U.S. dollar, meaning prices for Brazilian tourists in Florida have soared at the same time incomes are falling as a result of the recession. This is a toxic combination for Brazilian tourism in Florida, and flights from Brazil and the number of passengers on those flights have both fallen as a result.

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The Brexit vote in the U.K. compounds the impact of the Zika travel warning, as the British Pound lost 10% of its value against the U.S. dollar immediately following the vote. Holidays in Florida are now 10% more expensive to travelers from the U.K. While in and of itself a 10% price hike may not be enough to change all traveler’s plans, it will reduce some spending of those who do choose to come to Florida. The process of Brexit will likely take years to play out and the Bank of England, fearing the impact that this process may have on the economy, cut interest rates as a precautionary action. The third acorn of an unholy trinity as far as Florida tourism is concerned is Canada’s economy, which contracted by 1.6% in the 2nd quarter, the weakest showing in seven years. Economists believe the economy will rebound in the third quarter, but Canada has already endured a technical recession in the first half of 2015. The Canadian dollar depreciated 45% from January 2013 to 2016 and while it has recovered some of the losses since then, the loonie is still down 30% against the U.S. dollar. This 30% still represents a significant rise in the cost of every Canadian snowbird and tourist’s visit to Florida. Thus, the top three countries of origin for international tourism in Florida—Canada, Brazil and the U.K.—are all facing significant headwinds on the number of visitors and visitor spending in Florida. China’s economic slowdown and scary debt bubble, which now tops 260% of GDP, raise the specter of a hard landing for the nation’s economy, which could have a chilling effect on the global economy. The Greek debt crisis has not been solved and remains another global acorn; albeit, one that is overshadowed by other developments in the EU.

At the national level, U.S. Real GDP growth has averaged just 1.2% over the past four quarters and growth in the 2nd quarter of 2016 came in at just 1.1%. Were it not for a surge in consumer spending, GDP growth in the 2nd quarter could very well have been negative. For the past two months, core retail sales, which tracks closely with the consumer spending component of GDP, has contracted, suggesting that the surge in consumer spending in the 2nd quarter is transitory.

Over the past three quarters, gross private domestic investment has been contracting with the 2nd quarter 2016 contraction reaching nearly 10%. Average U.S. payroll job gains during 2014 were greater than 2015’s gains, which are greater than the average monthly gains thus far in 2016, pointing to a deceleration in the pace of job creation nationally. On a side note,

Florida’s average monthly gains have been stable the past 2.5 years.

This presidential election is an outlier (let’s hope) inasmuch as there is a heightened degree of policy uncertainty surrounding this cycle compared to previous elections that I believe is already manifesting its effect on the U.S. economy via the investment numbers referenced above.

The strength of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis our trading partners will continue to be a downward drag on real GDP growth for the next couple years by slowing export growth and raising import growth. The above is not an exhaustive list of acorns that have fallen/are falling on the U.S. and Florida economies, but this clearly shows that it is not just a single nut that has fallen but a large number of potential seeds of the next recession.

When the acorns are falling like raindrops, that still doesn’t mean that the sky is falling, but as the folks in and around Tallahassee can attest in the wake of Hurricane Hermine, it makes sense to keep an eye out for falling scrub oak trees that just might cut off the power to Florida’s economic expansion.

FLO R I DA’S H O U S I N G M A RKET

Housing Shortage Fuels Price Appreciation and a Sales Slowdown

The July 2016 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors depicts an existing housing market that remains tight with continued robust price appreciation. The median sales price for single-family homes increased $23,239 in July 2016, year over year, and now stands at $223,238 a year-over-year price appreciation of a robust 11.6%. Price appreciation in the townhome/condominium market continues as well, with an increase in the median sales price by $10,155 year over year, registering at $160,000 in July of this year.

Inventories of single-family homes in July are down from a year ago and are now just 4.3 months, indicating an inventory balance that favors sellers in the single-family market, according to the Florida Realtors report.1

Inventories of condominiums increased from 5.3 months’ supply back in July of 2015 to 5.9 months’ this April. This 1 According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers’ market, numbers below a sellers’ market. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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indicates that the condo market has moved toward a more balanced market between buyers and sellers but slightly tilted in the buyers’ favor. Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to plunge year over year (-34.0%), as are foreclosure/REO sales versus July 2015 (-55.0%). Traditional sales are up 2.7% year over year versus July 2015. Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are also still rapidly contracting year over year (-41.1%), and foreclosure/REO sales are down sharply as well versus July 2015 (-59.6%). Traditional sales were down 1.8% in July 2016 when compared to July 2015.

The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 26.6% in July 2016. For condos, that figure is much higher, as 53.7% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which points to a diminished role of investors in Florida’s housing market amid some improvement in mortgage availability year over year.2

Figure 1.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes 30,000

25,000

Realtor Sales Moving Average

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Source: Florida Realtors

Figure 2.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes $300,000 $250,000

Median Sales Price Moving Average

Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales $200,000 of existing single-family homes as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. This $150,000 smoother moving average line smooths out the seasonality and other noise in housing market $100,000 monthly data. Sales have been on a strong upward path and the 12-month moving average has $50,000 now exceeded its peak value during the housing $0 bubble. Sales growth coming out of the bottom has been on a stronger trend than the pre-bubble housing market, but over the past nine months Source: Florida Realtors the 12-month moving average flattened out and turned downward. This may be a reflection population growth via the in-migration of retirees and of decreasing affordability in the face of the rapid price job seekers to Florida. The population of Florida is also appreciation over the past two years and a depleted growing naturally as birth rates exceed death rates. In inventory of houses for sale. addition to these sources of domestic population growth, international immigration will also feed into the state’s The fundamental underpinnings of the housing market population growth. We expect this upward trend in sales in Florida continue to strengthen. Job growth in Florida will resume in the future given these improving economic is forecasted to continue outperforming the U.S. labor and demographic foundations of the housing market. market and more Baby Boomers continue to reach the end of their working lives. This bodes well for continued Figure 2 displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Median sales prices continue to climb 2 The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), put out by the since bottoming out in 2011. The double-digit pace of Mortgage Bankers Association, decreased 0.4 percent to 164.7 in August price increases gave way to single-digit increases in 2014, 2016 from July 2016. A decline in the index indicates that lending standards but 2015 brought back double-digit price appreciation slightly tightened. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. Relative for a return engagement that persisted through July of to that month, mortgages in August 2016 were 64.7% more available. In 2006, the value of this same index approached 900. 8

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2016. Over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by more than $22,000.

Low inventories of existing homes for sale and housing starts growth that stalled during 2013 and 2014 support an environment where home prices could continue to rise at this elevated pace. This is an old-fashioned shortage in the single-family market that will be rectified as the pace of single-family housing starts ramp up over the next several years. Single-family housing starts in 2019 are expected to increase by nearly 95% from 2014 levels. Many of Florida’s homeowners are still well below the levels of home equity wealth they had at the peak of the housing market; median prices are currently $34,562 below the 2006 peak of $257,800. However, rising prices have allowed some homeowners to escape the burden of negative equity after years of being in mortgages that were underwater.

Despite this progress on recovering lost home equity, there is still a high percentage of Floridians underwater in their mortgages. CoreLogic’s, 2nd quarter 2016 estimate3 comes out to 14.0% of mortgages with negative equity in Florida (down from 15.0% in the 1st quarter), second only to Nevada’s 15.3%. Florida is followed by Maryland, Illinois, and Arizona with 11.8%, 11.7%, and 11.6% of mortgage holders with negative equity in each state, respectively.

OUT LO O K FOR FLORIDA 2016 -201 9 GR OSS STAT E P R OD UC T Real Gross State Product (RGSP) or real state GDP growth in Florida is expected to grow at a faster pace than we are forecasting for U.S. Real GDP growth over the next four years, as it has been since 2013.

RGSP is expected to have expanded at 3.1%, the fastest growth rate in the recovery to date. In 2016 through 2019, however, growth will decelerate as more restrictive monetary policy and a still sputtering national economy will put on the brakes and the global economic environment continues to be a drag. Growth in that four-year stretch is expected to be 3.1%, 2.9%, 2.6%, and 2.4%, respectively. During 2016-2019, Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 2.7% annually.

This average growth of 2.7% during 2016 through 2019 is a faster pace of the average growth compared to the previous four years (when growth is expected to have averaged 2.4%). This projected average rate of growth for Florida’s economy is 0.7 percentage points higher than the average of our forecasted real GDP growth for the U.S. economy over the same time frame (2.0 %).

Housing prices have made substantial progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. During the crisis, median existing home prices fell to a low of $122,200 but now stand at $223,238. This ongoing price appreciation continues to repair damage done to household balance sheets in Florida, but even at today’s rapid price appreciation, it will take several years to recover all the wealth lost in the housing market collapse. Housing prices plummeted from the median-price high of $257,800 in June of 2006.

Rising house prices in Florida are lifting more mortgage holders in the state above the surface of the water for the first time in years, providing some financial breathing room. Despite this progress, CoreLogic estimates that as of Q2 2015, 14.0% of mortgaged homes in Florida still have negative equity, where owners owe more in mortgage debt than the market value of the house. In these households, decisions about spending and saving are impacted by a nest egg that is still in pieces rather than a source of wealth to finance homeowners’ futures.

Growth of RGSP in the first year of the state’s recovery, 2012, showed Florida’s economy expanding at a 1.7% pace, while U.S. GDP was growing at 2.2%. In 2013, Florida’s economy accelerated with a growth rate of 2.3% as rising consumer confidence, progress in the housing market recovery, population growth, and healing of the damage in the labor market helped lay the foundation for even faster economic growth in the state. Meanwhile, growth in the U.S. economy slowed to 1.7% in 2013.

Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues on track toward the $1 trillion mark and will surpass $980 billion in 2017. In 2018, Florida will finally break that $1 trillion mark with a NGSP of $1.023 trillion and continue to climb to $1.069 trillion in 2019. That level of NGSP projected for 2019 would make Florida’s economy the 16th largest in the world,4 behind Mexico and ahead of Indonesia and the Netherlands.

3 http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/corelogic-reports-548,000us-homeowners-regained-equity-in-the-second-quarter-of-2016.aspx

4 According to the World Bank : http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/ GDP-ranking-table

The improvement of the underpinnings of the state’s economy have helped accelerate growth in 2015, when

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P ER SON AL I NCOM E, R ETAI L SA LE S , also made a strong recovery and has now fully recovered past peak levels seen during the housing boom. That A N D AUTO SAL ES In 2015, personal income growth in Florida accelerated from 5.0% in 2014 to 5.3%. These two strong years of growth followed a lackluster 1.4% growth rate in 2013. That growth will ease in 2016, as personal income growth comes in at 4.8%. From that point, personal income growth will accelerate to 5.1% in 2017, then rise to 5.4% in 2018 and 5.5% in 2019. Florida is expected to outpace the nation in personal income growth, averaging 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average growth for 2016 through 2019. Personal income growth during 2016-2019 will average 5.2% in Florida. Personal income will exceed $1.09 trillion in 2019, marking an increase in personal income in excess of $387 billion from its nadir in 2009.

In 2016, real disposable income growth will average 4.1%, down from the previous year’s 4.3% growth rate. Average growth in Florida during 2016-2019 will remain a solid 3.6%, with U.S. real disposable income growth expected to average 3.2% during the same time frame.

Financial markets have thrived since the low point of the financial crisis; this is thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy bolstered by three rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009 but then surged to an excess of 18,000 in 2015, where it is currently hovering after hitting a high of 18,668. For those households holding stocks and bonds, this bull-run created trillions of dollars of wealth.

This seven-year bull market run appears to have hit a wall. The Fed embarked on its first interest rate hike in December last year and although the Fed has not yet raised rates since that initial hike, it is likely that they will do so again before the end of 2016. The realities of interest rate hikes and that of those yet to come, accompanied by global economic uncertainty, domestic political uncertainty, and financial market volatility abroad, have kept the U.S. stock market tethered after clawing back losses that started off 2016.

As a result of the run in financial markets and as of the th 4 quarter of 2016, financial assets held by U.S. households have values that are more than $31.9 trillion5 higher than the 2009 Q1 nadir of the financial crisis levels, and $21.2 trillion higher than pre-recession peaks. Home equity wealth held by America’s households has

5 Data taken from the September 2016 and historical Flow of Funds report balance sheet tables: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/ accessible/b101.htm 10

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wealth is still $531 billion higher than those 2005 highs. U.S. households now hold $7.48 trillion more home equity wealth than they held in the 1st quarter of 2009.

Home equity in Florida has not been recovered as rapidly nor as completely as financial asset wealth, but housing prices have been rising over the past four years, with acceleration in the rate of price appreciation in 2015 to a double-digit pace, creating significant gains in home equity wealth. However, for many households in Florida, the effects of the lost home equity wealth will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2019. Many of Florida’s mortgage holders are still underwater, leaving the state with the second highest percentage (14.0% as of Q2 2016) of underwater mortgages in the nation. The labor market in Florida is continuing to show robust job creation in 2016, and this will help lift consumer sentiment and consumption spending in the state. Gasoline and oil prices are still low by recent historical levels, representing a significant decline that has boosted confidence and served to support retail sales outside of gasoline. With more money staying in consumers’ pockets that previously went into the tank, households will be able to increase spending on other goods and services. That said, lower gasoline prices are no substitute for a sustained increase in the size of consumer’s paychecks.

With Florida’s strong labor market recovery sustaining its momentum and more home equity being recovered, retail spending will accelerate in 2016 and 2017, with growth averaging 4.6% during those two years. The average growth rate of retail sales will be over 4.5% during 2016-2019. Consumers began to purchase light vehicles at a faster pace after the recession ended, releasing several years of pent-up demand, and have continued to do so through mid-2016. This sustained growth has been enabled by the availability of easy financing for purchasing automobiles, including a troubling rise in the number of sub-prime auto loans, an increasing number of which have gone into default.

Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand growing robustly during 2010-2015, when registrations grew at a year-over-year average rate in excess of 11.4%. The exhaustion of pent-up demand points toward a deceleration in vehicle registration in Florida during 2016-2019. Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average less at just 1.6%, with growth being at its highest in 2017 at nearly 4.1% before turning slightly 2019.

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In 2019, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.4205 million, easing slightly from the 2018 projection of 1.4225 million. Motor vehicle sales have been the strongest component of consumer spending over the past several years. This growth appears to be running on fumes and after 2017, the eightyear streak of rising registrations is poised to stall.

EM P LOYME NT The pace of Florida’s labor market recovery continues to exceed the recovery of the national job market. Our outlook for Florida suggests that this will continue to be the case through at least 2019.

Payroll job growth was robust in 2015 at 3.5%. The final three months of the year showed very strong for payroll employment growth in the state, and some of that momentum has carried over into 2016. Growth is expected to decelerate this year to 2.9%, before easing to 2.1% in 2017, 1.3% in 2018, and 1.1% in 2019. Although job growth is expected to decelerate through our short run forecast horizon, Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon (2016-2019) by an average of 0.9 percentage points. The Construction sector was devastated by the bursting of the housing bubble, with total job losses at just under 347,000. It is expected to remain the fastest sector for job growth among all industrial sectors in Florida’s economy through the end of our 2019 forecast horizon. While the rate of growth remains strong, the pace of forecasted growth has been revised down over the past several forecasts.

sector will decelerate to 5.2% in 2018 before slowing again to 2.3% in 2019.

The Professional and Business Services sector is largely comprised of white-collar businesses, with the exception of waste management. The sector includes scientific research, law firms, management of companies, and temporary employment agencies. Average salaries for this sector exceed $55,500. The Professional and Business Services sector in Florida recovered quickly from the recession and was the first to recoup all the payroll jobs lost during the recession.

The Information sector in Florida added jobs for the first time in eight years in 2013 when it experienced a year-overyear job growth of 0.4% in 2013. Growth then accelerated to 1.5% in 2014 before the sector began to lose ground once again in 2015. The Information sector is a mix of high-tech sectors, legacy media, and publishing sectors that continue to struggle with structural changes in how information is gathered, disseminated, and most importantly—how it is paid for. Sources of growth within this sector in Florida, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and content creation, will eventually begin to offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media and publishing. Growth went into reverse at -0.3% in 2015 and growth will stay in negative territory through 2017 before rising to 2.8% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019. If growth hits that mark in 2018, it will represent the fastest annual growth in the sector since the dot com bubble. This projected growth path implies an average growth rate of -0.1% during 2016-2019.

Construction job growth is expected to decelerate over the short-run forecast horizon but will remain solid, even as housing starts decelerate. Despite the slowing in home construction growth, the still double-digit growth rates in housing starts in the near term will support construction job growth of 6.2% in 2016, and 4.5% in 2017, before easing to 3.2% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.

The Education and Health Services sector in Florida continued to grow during the worst of the recession. Demand from the state’s larger share of population of older residents, who have higher demand for health services, along with the passage of the Affordable Care Act drove growth in this sector. During 2016-2019, employment in this sector is expected to continue to expand at an average rate of 2.0%.

The Professional and Business Services sector will be the second fastest growing sector in the state on average through 2019. Job growth in this sector is expected to be solid, averaging 3.7% during 2016-2019. Job growth in this sector over the past three years averaged 7.8%, but growth will moderate over the next four years. Job growth will ease in 2016 and further slow to 6.0% in 2017. Growth in this

The weakening of economic growth abroad, including a slowdown in China, persistent weak growth in Europe, Brexit—Britain’s vote to leave the European Union—and

Average annual job growth during 2016-2019 will be 4.9%. Employment will average 519,700 in 2019—a level that is 162,400 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak employment in the Construction sector.

Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 2.9% in 2014, which was the best growth rate in more than 15 years, only to be superseded by growth in 2015 of 3.5%. But as 2015 wound down, the economic environment for the manufacturing sector began to sour as both the domestic and global economic environments weakened significantly, and the U.S. dollar continued an ongoing period of strengthening.

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a historic recession in Brazil, have all fed into the souring of the economic environment. Exports have suffered from this combination of slower income growth abroad and higher prices of American goods and services for foreigners whose currencies depreciated against the dollar. These developments will weigh heavily on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector in Florida in 2016, as job growth will eventually slow to 2.5%. We are looking at job growth of 0.8% in manufacturing for 2017, followed by a slight contraction of 0.2% in 2018 with a mild rebound in 2019 when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 0.4%.

The State and Local Government sector in Florida is enjoying improved revenue streams as sales tax revenues rise, and with housing prices continuing to climb, property tax revenue is rising as well. Despite this improvement, revenues for local governments are still well below their peaks in the housing boom, even in the fastest growing housing markets. Budgetary shortfalls led to job losses in this sector that persisted for six years, from 2009 through 2014. Despite growing revenues, the ghost of that prolonged budgetary crisis has kept spending growth modest and employment still flat or falling at the state and local government level during that period.

As Florida’s population and economy have continued to grow, the demand for state and local government services has grown as well. To meet this demand, growth in state and local government will be necessary, even in this postcrisis environment of austerity. The shadow of the painful cuts to employment in the wake of the recession will still linger over hiring decisions and keep employment growth more restrained than what might otherwise be the case. Average job growth in State and Local Government during 2016-2019 will be 1.2% with growth steady over this fouryear period. On the other hand, the outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida will steadily worsen over the forecast horizon. Average job growth in the Federal Government sector in Florida will be 0.3% with growth turning negative in 2018 and remaining in negative territory thereafter, with the possible exception of the temporary hiring surge associated with the census year in 2020, for the foreseeable future. Any long term solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will involve additional revenue, but ultimately cuts in discretionary federal spending will be needed if entitlement programs continue to swell, consuming an increasing piece of federal revenue pie.

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

As the Federal Reserve continues its sluggish cycle of interest rate hikes (which began in December 2015), the burden of servicing a national debt that is more than $19.5 trillion will require a larger share of federal tax revenue. The pain of running years of trillion dollar deficits has been dampened by historically low interest rates on Treasury Bonds, but that pain will increase if Treasury rates climb along with the Fed’s increases in the federal funds rate.

U N E M PLOY M E N T The unemployment rate in Florida has fallen considerably from its peak level of 11.2% in January 2010 and stands at 4.7% as of August 2016. After many years well above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s August 2016 unemployment rate was below the national unemployment rate.

Florida’s labor force participation rate in August 2016 stood at 58.3%, which is down from 58.9% one year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.8% in August 2016, which is up from 62.6% in August 2015. This is the lowest level for the national labor force participation rate since November 1977 and is down 3.0 percentage points from the start of the recession. The labor force participation rate is calculated as the percentage of the population aged 16 and older who are counted as participating in the labor force. Retirees, who are obviously older than sixteen, but who no longer participate in the labor force, push down the overall labor force participation rate.

The relatively higher share of the population in Florida who are retired explains why the state’s participation rate is lower than the national rate and the continued in migration of retirees to the Sunshine State explain the year-over-year decline in the labor force participation rate. In August 2016, Florida’s population over the age of sixteen grew by 309,000 year over year, while its labor force grew by just 72,000. The retirement of Baby Boomers to Florida will continue to put downward pressure on the labor force participation rate in the state. The 4.7% unemployment rate in Florida as of August 2016 represents a 6.5 percentage point decline from that peak level of the unemployment rate in 2010.

With a cautious eye on both the falling acorns and the scrub oaks, we are forecasting continued economic growth in Florida over the next several years as well as continued growth in payroll jobs, with both measures exhibiting significantly stronger growth than what we are forecasting nationally.

F lo r i d a S umma r y

This faster economic and job growth will generate a more rapidly growing labor force, making additional progress in reducing the unemployment rate increasingly more difficult. After 2015’s growth of 0.8%, we expect the labor force to grow more rapidly during 2016-2019, at an average rate of 2.0% despite downward pressure from retiree in migration. Going forward, job seekers will be encouraged by the robust payroll job growth in the state and become motivated to enter or reenter Florida’s labor force. This will result in slower and more infrequent declines in the unemployment rate and may also result in an occasional increase in the unemployment rate in Florida on a monthto-month basis.

Specifically, analysis of how U-6 behaves relative to the headline unemployment rate (U-3) will provide important information necessary to fully understand the full impact of the healthcare law on the labor market. The gap between these two measures of unemployment remains historically large, especially given that we are now in the eighth year of this economic recovery nationally. The spread between U-6 and U-3 at the national level is hovering at 5.0 percentage points, while that gap is 4.8 percentage points in Florida.

Nationally, and in Florida, the level of workers who are working part-time but not by choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force—defined as workers who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work in the past 12 months—remain elevated. When adding these workers and discouraged workers—defined as workers who are currently not working and did not look for a job in the four weeks preceding the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly survey of households—to the headline unemployment figure, U-3, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS, known as U-6.

Looking at U-6, we see a labor market that is still deeply damaged, as U-6 in Florida averaged 10.6% during the period covering the 3rd quarter of 2015 through the 2nd quarter of 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the national rate of U-6 averaged 9.9% over that same time period.

U-6 unemployment in Florida is well down from its average readings of 12.8% in 2014, 14.3% in 2013, 16% in 2012, 17.6% in 2011, and down 8.7 percentage points from its peak average rate of 19.3% in 2010 (the nation’s U-6 averaged 16.7% in 2010). The 2015 average reading rate reflects the depth of the damage done to the labor market by the historic recession in Florida and the post-recession regulatory burden inflicted upon the labor market. These factors are not reflected in the current headline unemployment rate of 4.7%. The employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act are now being enforced as of 2015 for companies with 100 or more full-time equivalent employees and in 2016 for mid-size companies with 50-99 employees. The levels of underemployment have grown. Employer and worker responses to the full/part-time distinction and the disincentives to full-time work resulting from the law necessitate ongoing scrutiny of U-6 at the national and state level.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Personal Income (Bil. $)

774.6

798.4

809.7

850.2

895.3

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

6.1 6.2

3.1 5.2

1.4 2.0

5.0 4.2

5.3 4.1

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago)

750.6 3.4

760.3 1.3

760.9 0.1

786.5 3.3

U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

3.7 683.0 2.2 2.5

3.3 690.2 1.1 3.0

0.8 683.9 -0.9 -0.2

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch Year ago)

735.2 0.8 717.1 -0.7

764.6 4.0 729.7 1.8

797.3 4.3 746.6 2.3

2016

2017

2018

2019

938.4

986.3

1039.5

1096.5

4.8 4.4

5.1 4.9

5.4 4.6

5.5 4.4

825.5 5.0

856.7 3.8

884.7 3.3

915.6 3.5

947.5 3.5

2.8 704.5 3.0 2.7

3.0 734.8 4.3 2.5

3.1 765.0 4.1 3.0

3.3 789.3 3.2 3.4

3.0 816.9 3.5 3.2

2.9 845.5 3.5 3.1

835.6 4.8 765.8 2.6

882.8 5.6 789.8 3.1

929.2 5.3 814.3 3.1

977.0 5.1 837.9 2.9

1023.4 4.7 859.8 2.6

1069.4 4.5 880.0 2.4

Personal Income and GSP

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.8 1.8 2.1 2.2 9.8 8.4 7.1 6.2 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.9 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.8 5.0

1.5 1.8 5.1 5.2

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous)

1.2 1.1 4.0 -4.3 1.1 0.8 1.3 3.7 -0.3 2.2 1.8

1.7 2.0 -0.3 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.6

1.6 2.5 0.4 7.0 1.6 -0.2 2.5 2.7 1.0 2.7 2.7

1.9 3.2 0.9 8.6 2.9 1.2 3.8 3.2 2.1 3.8 1.7

2.1 3.5 2.0 8.0 3.2 1.2 4.2 4.1 2.2 3.7 2.6

1.7 2.9 -1.8 6.2 2.5 1.2 3.2 3.2 1.8 1.9 3.6

1.1 2.1 -0.3 6.0 0.8 0.0 1.1 2.0 1.1 0.7 2.2

0.6 1.3 0.6 5.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.4 1.0 -1.0 0.6

0.6 1.1 -1.2 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 -0.3 0.5

3.0 1.9 2.8

3.7 1.7 4.2

4.0 1.7 4.0

4.2 2.7 4.6

5.0 3.5 4.2

3.6 3.5 3.6

4.4 2.0 2.2

4.2 0.8 1.1

2.5 1.5 1.2

-1.0 -5.4 -1.1

-1.6 -0.9 -1.4

0.4 -0.5 -0.2

1.5 -0.5 -0.1

-0.3 1.9 0.4

-1.4 2.7 1.2

-2.0 1.1 1.1

2.8 -1.1 1.2

0.3 -1.4 1.1

Population and Migration 19135.8 19382.1 19637.6 19954.7 20315.0 20668.6 21028.1 21374.2 21700.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 211.4 208.2 246.8 308.1 329.3 318.1 309.6 287.7 266.3

(%Ch Year ago)

18.8

-1.4

18.4

25.7

7.9

-3.3

-2.6

-7.1

-7.4

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

41.3 31.7

59.3 42.5

80.6 54.6

80.5 56.7

Housing 102.0 67.5

114.1 78.3

138.0 94.2

151.2 102.7

156.9 102.9

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

9.6

16.8

26.0

23.8

34.5

35.8

43.8

48.5

54.0

(%Ch Year ago)

3.1

1.9

1.6

1.7

2.5

2.4

2.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

Consumer Prices 1.8 0.4

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Personal Income (Bil. $)

930.9

943.9

956.1

968.3

980.4

Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

4.6 4.3

4.7 4.5

4.8 4.8

5.0 4.9

5.3 5.0

5.1 5.0

5.1 4.9

5.3 4.8

851.1 3.7

860.9 3.9

867.3 3.4

874.6 3.2

881.2 3.5

887.8 3.1

895.1 3.2

904.9 3.5

Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida.(%Ch Year ago) U.S.(%Ch Year ago)

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Personal Income and GSP 992.0 1004.4 1020.1

1033.2

1045.7

1059.1

1075.1

1089.4

5.4 4.7

5.4 4.5

5.4 4.4

5.4 4.3

5.4 4.4

912.3 3.5

919.0 3.5

926.3 3.5

935.8 3.4

943.7 3.4

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.8

760.8 4.1

769.7 4.3

775.2 3.9

781.0 3.6

786.4 3.4

791.7 2.9

798.1 3.0

807.1 3.4

813.8 3.5

820.0 3.6

826.7 3.6

835.4 3.5

842.4 3.5

2.8

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.2

3.0

3.1

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago)

922.6 5.5

935.1 4.9

948.1 5.1

960.6 5.4

971.9 5.3

982.1 5.0

993.4 4.8

1006.5 4.8

1018.3 4.8

1029.2 4.8

1039.5 4.6

1051.7 4.5

1063.3 4.4

GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch Year ago)

810.9 3.3

817.5 2.8

823.6 2.8

830.4 3.1

835.7 3.1

840.2 2.8

845.5 2.7

852.2 2.6

857.7 2.6

862.4 2.6

866.6 2.5

872.1 2.3

877.3 2.3

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

2.5 1.7 4.7

2.2 1.7 4.7

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.1 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9

1.9 2.1 5.0

1.7 2.0 5.0

1.6 1.9 5.1

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

4.9

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.9

5.0

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.6

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing

3.1 -1.1 6.6 3.1

2.8 -3.2 5.6 2.6

2.5 -2.8 6.0 1.4

2.5 -1.8 5.5 1.2

2.2 -1.4 5.5 0.7

1.9 0.7 6.4 0.7

1.8 1.5 6.5 0.6

1.5 1.6 6.1 0.3

1.4 1.1 5.5 -0.3

1.3 0.3 5.1 -0.6

1.2 -0.6 4.1 -0.2

1.2 -0.9 3.3 0.2

1.1 -1.2 2.6 0.4

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade

2.1 3.6 3.6 2.2

1.5 3.1 2.6 1.5

-0.7 2.4 2.1 1.7

0.6 1.5 1.5 1.4

0.0 0.9 2.1 0.8

-0.2 1.1 2.2 1.0

-0.4 1.0 2.2 1.2

-0.6 0.7 1.6 1.0

-0.6 -0.1 1.5 1.0

-0.4 -0.6 1.3 1.1

-0.2 -0.3 1.1 1.1

0.2 0.2 1.0 1.3

0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3

Retail Trade Financial Activities

2.0 3.6

1.5 3.7

1.9 3.9

1.5 3.3

1.0 2.6

0.5 1.8

-0.2

-0.8

-1.2

-1.0

-0.5

-0.3

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

3.8 3.8 4.2 -1.6 2.5 1.2

3.5 3.6 3.4 -1.9 3.2 1.6

2.5 3.3 3.0 -1.0 2.8 1.4

4.2 3.0 2.3 0.4 2.5 1.6

4.6 2.3 2.1 -1.5 1.8 1.1

4.4 1.8 2.1 -3.9 0.4 0.8

1.2 4.5 1.1 2.1 -2.9 -0.1 1.0

0.7 4.4 0.7 1.6 -1.4 -0.6 1.1

0.6 4.5 0.6 1.2 2.7 -1.0 1.2

0.5 4.4 0.7 0.8 5.3 -1.3 1.2

0.4 3.4 1.0 0.7 4.5 -1.5 1.2

0.6 2.6 1.4 1.0 1.9 -1.4 1.2

0.6 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.0 -1.4 1.2

20,621.7

20,713.0

20,804.3

20,894.8

20,984.3

21,072.9

21,160.6

21,247.2

21,332.7

21,417.1

21,500.0

21,581.2

21,661.1

1.7 77.0 -8.3

1.7 81.5 -0.3

1.7 81.1 1.9

1.7 79.6 1.4

1.8 78.1 1.4

1.7 76.7 -6.0

1.7 75.3 -7.1

1.7 74.0 -7.0

1.7 72.6 -6.9

1.6 71.4 -6.9

1.6 69.8 -7.3

1.6 68.1 -7.9

1.5 66.6 -8.3

108.6 75.7 32.9

115.1 77.9 37.2

121.0 82.2 38.9

127.7 87.6 40.1

137.1 93.2 44.0

141.0 96.5 44.5

Housing 146.2 99.7 46.6

149.4 102.2 47.2

150.2 103.2 47.1

152.4 103.5 48.9

152.8 101.9 50.8

153.7 101.3 52.4

155.5 102.0 53.6

1.6

1.7

2.1

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.5

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch Year ago)

2.7

2.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,198.0

8,244.8

8,309.0

8,359.4

8,406.2

8,454.1

8,493.4

8,521.8

8,554.3

8,578.9

8,609.6

8,633.6

8,653.8

Manufacturing

347.7

348.3

351.7

352.9

352.5

352.6

354.0

355.2

354.5

353.5

353.0

353.2

353.7

Durable Goods

235.5

237.5

240.3

241.4

241.1

241.2

242.6

244.0

243.6

242.8

242.4

242.6

242.9

Wood Products

13.2

13.4

13.5

13.4

13.6

14.0

14.3

14.5

14.6

14.7

14.9

15.0

Computer & Electronics

41.4

41.5

42.0

42.1

42.0

41.7

41.8

41.9

Transportation Equipment

39.8

39.6

39.5

40.0

40.1

40.3

40.4

40.3

40.0

39.5

39.1

38.9

38.7

112.2

110.8

111.3

111.4

111.2

111.0

110.7

30.9

30.8

31.0

31.2

31.3

31.4

31.5

31.6

31.7

7,850.3

7,896.5

7,957.3

8,006.5

8,053.7

8,101.5

8,139.4

8,166.6

8,199.7

8,225.5

8,256.6

8,280.4

8,300.1

5.8

5.7

5.8

5.7

Construction

437.7

446.5

453.9

457.3

464.0

471.2

479.1

486.3

494.1

500.0

505.6

511.1

514.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

269.4

273.3

273.2

274.1

275.1

277.4

279.0

280.1

281.3

281.8

283.2

283.8

284.3

Wholesale Trade

336.3

338.6

341.3

342.1

343.3

344.1

344.9

346.2

346.7

347.6

348.6

349.8

1,088.4

1,093.3

1,100.0

1,104.4

1,109.3

1,109.7

1,110.6

1,109.6

1,107.3

1,100.8

1,097.7

1,096.8

1,096.0

134.9

134.2

133.7

133.8

133.6

134.7

131.7

128.5

129.7

132.8

135.3

135.4

135.5

1,252.5

1,251.5

1,260.2

1,272.0

1,284.1

1,303.8

1,318.5

1,327.8

1,342.3

1,361.6

1,378.2

1,385.6

1,388.2

Admin. & Support

637.2

639.2

642.4

648.8

655.2

672.5

685.2

693.2

705.8

723.4

739.1

745.5

747.5

Prof. Sci & Tech

517.3

514.0

519.3

524.4

529.7

532.1

533.9

535.2

537.1

538.8

539.5

540.3

540.8

98.0

98.3

98.6

98.8

99.1

99.2

99.3

99.4

99.6

99.7

99.9

Financial Activities

540.5

546.4

551.5

557.1

561.8

564.5

565.8

567.0

568.3

568.6

569.1

569.8

570.7

Real Estate & Rent

179.3

181.9

181.0

182.6

184.0

184.8

185.3

185.7

186.2

186.3

186.6

187.1

187.8

Fin. & Insurance

361.2

364.5

370.5

374.5

377.8

379.7

380.5

381.4

382.2

382.3

382.5

382.7

382.9

1,215.8

1,225.7

1,238.4

1,246.4

1,256.0

1,262.2

1,266.7

1,269.0

1,270.1

1,271.5

1,273.9

1,277.6

1,283.0

156.5

157.9

161.6

161.4

161.8

160.7

159.5

158.3

156.9

156.0

155.3

154.9

154.6

Health Services

1,059.3

1,067.8

1,076.8

1,085.0

1,094.2

1,101.5

1,107.1

1,110.7

1,113.1

1,115.5

1,118.6

1,122.7

1,128.5

Leisure & Hospitality

1,147.8

1,160.0

1,168.7

1,177.1

1,181.8

1,186.5

1,193.8

1,201.6

1,206.6

1,205.4

1,207.6

1,210.9

1,215.2

334.9

335.2

336.5

336.1

337.3

337.6

337.3

336.7

336.2

335.9

335.7

335.9

1,086.2

1,086.0

1,094.1

1,101.2

1,102.9

1,104.9

1,107.2

1,109.3

1,112.0

1,114.5

1,117.0

1,119.3

1,121.6

Federal Gov't.

135.2

135.6

136.7

138.4

138.9

139.0

139.1

139.0

138.7

138.2

137.7

137.2

136.7

State & Local Gov't

951.1

950.4

957.4

962.8

963.9

965.9

968.1

970.3

973.2

976.3

979.3

982.1

984.8

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 4. Employment Annual

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,252.3

7,396.3

7,582.3

7,824.6

8,095.7

8,329.8

8505.9

8,619.0

8,717.8

Manufacturing

312.5

317.5

322.4

331.9

342.7

351.3

354.1

353.4

354.8

Durable Goods

206.1

210.0

215.2

223.3

232.7

240.1

242.8

242.7

243.7

8.6

8.8

10.4

11.3

12.6

13.3

14.1

14.8

15.2

Computer & Electronics

43.0

42.5

41.0

40.7

41.3

41.9

41.7

41.8

41.7

Transportation Equipment

34.2

35.4

36.4

37.5

39.3

39.8

40.2

39.1

39.0

106.3

107.5

107.3

108.6

110.0

111.3

111.2

110.7

111.1

28.7

29.2

29.5

29.8

30.2

30.9

31.3

31.5

32.0

6,939.8

7,078.9

7,259.9

7,492.7

7,753.0

7,978.5

8,151.8

8,265.6

8,363.0

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.7

Construction

335.5

342.0

365.9

397.3

428.8

455.4

482.7

507.8

519.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

235.4

240.5

247.0

254.9

265.4

273.9

279.4

283.2

285.5

Wholesale Trade

312.1

317.9

320.9

327.5

334.8

340.8

344.6

348.2

352.7

Retail Trade

955.4

978.3

1,004.8

1,043.1

1,081.4

1,101.8

1,109.3

1,097.8

1,094.2

Information

135.7

133.6

134.1

136.1

135.8

133.8

131.2

134.7

135.1

1,036.0

1,074.4

1,117.6

1,164.8

1,223.6

1,266.9

1,323.1

1,378.4

1,413.4

Admin. & Support

516.8

538.2

559.2

585.5

619.4

646.4

689.2

738.9

767.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

437.8

450.8

467.2

485.1

507.4

521.9

534.6

539.9

545.6

81.4

85.4

91.2

94.2

96.8

98.7

99.3

99.7

100.0

Financial Activities

486.5

499.4

512.7

521.2

535.0

554.2

566.4

569.6

572.4

Real Estate & Rent

153.1

160.0

165.5

170.9

177.5

182.4

185.5

186.9

189.5

Fin. & Insurance

333.5

339.4

347.2

350.3

357.5

371.8

380.9

382.6

382.9

1,091.1

1,109.2

1,128.3

1,159.2

1,199.3

1,241.6

1,267.0

1,276.5

1,295.3

Education Services

136.7

139.5

142.5

147.6

152.4

160.7

158.9

155.2

153.7

Health Services

954.4

969.8

985.8

1,011.7

1,046.8

1,081.0

1,108.1

1,121.3

1,141.7

Leisure & Hospitality

957.2

997.5

1,037.6

1,085.5

1,130.9

1,171.9

1,197.1

1,209.8

1,224.6

Other Services

295.7

301.5

309.2

323.2

331.2

336.3

336.9

335.8

337.0

1,093.3

1,078.9

1,076.0

1,074.3

1,081.0

1,096.1

1,108.4

1,118.1

1,127.4

Federal Gov't.

134.0

132.7

132.0

131.3

133.9

137.4

139.0

137.4

135.5

State & Local Gov't

959.3

946.2

943.9

943.0

947.2

958.6

969.4

980.6

991.9

Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

Personal Income

930.9

943.9

956.1

968.3

980.4

992.0

1004.4

Wages & Salaries

426.1

432.6

439.4

446.4

453.1

459.5

465.7

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

1020.1

1033.2

1045.7

1059.1

1075.1

1089.4

472.1

478.4

484.5

490.2

496.5

502.7

Billions Current Dollars

Other Labor Income

90.7

91.9

92.8

94.1

95.1

96.0

96.9

97.8

98.5

99.5

100.4

101.7

102.7

Nonfarm

55.2

56.4

57.2

58.2

59.1

59.7

60.4

61.2

61.8

62.3

62.9

63.6

64.2

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.6

Property Income

233.9

236.6

238.5

239.9

242.1

244.4

247.5

251.8

255.3

258.3

262.7

266.8

271.7

Transfer Payments

Farm

186.8

188.9

191.5

194.4

196.6

198.8

200.9

205.5

208.1

211.0

213.6

218.2

220.6

Social Insurance

66.1

66.9

67.7

69.1

69.9

70.8

71.6

72.9

73.7

74.4

75.2

76.4

77.1

Personal Income

851.1

860.9

867.3

874.6

881.2

887.8

895.1

904.9

912.3

919.0

926.3

935.8

943.7

Wages & Salaries

389.6

394.6

398.6

403.1

407.2

411.2

415.0

418.8

422.5

425.8

428.7

432.2

435.5

Billions 2009 $

Other Labor Income

82.9

83.8

84.2

85.0

85.5

86.0

86.3

86.8

87.0

87.4

87.8

88.5

88.9

Nonfarm

50.4

51.4

51.8

52.5

53.1

53.4

53.8

54.3

54.6

54.8

55.0

55.4

55.6

0.7

0.6

0.5

Farm Property Income

213.8

215.8

216.3

216.7

217.6

218.7

220.6

223.4

225.5

227.0

229.7

232.2

235.4

Transfer Payments

170.8

172.3

173.7

175.5

176.7

177.9

179.1

182.3

183.8

185.4

186.8

189.9

191.1

60.5

61.0

61.5

62.4

62.9

63.4

63.8

64.7

65.1

65.4

65.8

66.5

66.8

1328.1

1393.8

1382.5

1384.0

1407.0

1428.0

1434.6

1426.9

1423.6

1422.4

1417.2

1416.0

1421.1

Retail Sales (Billions $)

324.6

327.5

333.7

337.3

343.3

348.1

351.9

355.9

360.1

363.6

367.1

371.0

375.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

296.8

298.7

302.7

304.7

308.6

311.5

313.6

315.8

318.0

319.6

321.1

322.9

325.1

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

F lo r i d a S umma r y T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

774.6

798.4

809.7

850.2

895.3

938.4

986.3

1039.5

1096.5

Wages & Salaries

332.5

346.3

358.5

379.1

403.4

429.9

456.2

481.3

505.9

Other Labor Income

75.3

78.3

81.4

83.0

86.7

91.2

95.5

99.0

103.1

Nonfarm

40.4

44.8

47.6

50.7

53.2

55.9

59.3

62.0

64.5

0.9

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.6

0.9

0.7

0.6

Property Income

211.5

217.2

213.4

221.8

229.8

235.4

243.5

257.0

274.1

Transfer Payments

157.8

156.3

161.3

171.2

180.5

188.0

197.7

209.6

221.8

46.8

48.9

56.9

60.0

63.3

66.6

70.4

74.1

77.6

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

750.6

760.3

760.9

786.5

825.5

856.7

884.7

915.6

947.5

Wages & Salaries

322.2

329.8

336.9

350.7

371.9

392.4

409.2

424.0

437.2

Other Labor Income

72.9

74.6

76.5

76.8

79.9

83.3

85.7

87.2

89.1

Nonfarm

39.2

42.7

44.7

46.9

49.0

51.0

53.2

54.7

55.7

0.9

1.2

1.0

1.5

0.9

0.6

0.5

Property Income

204.9

206.8

200.6

205.1

211.9

214.9

218.4

226.4

236.9

Transfer Payments

152.9

148.8

151.6

158.3

166.4

171.7

177.3

184.6

191.6

45.4

46.6

53.5

55.5

58.3

60.8

63.1

65.2

67.0

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

879.8

1006.9

1101.0

1224.2

1336.4

1358.7

1413.4

1422.5

1420.5

Retail Sales (Billions $)

265.5

279.6

294.6

310.6

318.6

326.9

345.2

361.7

377.4

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

257.2

266.3

276.9

287.3

293.7

298.5

309.6

318.6

326.1

Farm

Social Insurance

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

(Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Gross State Product

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(thousands)

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0 0.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Employment (Thousands)

9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida Population (Thousands)

22000.0 21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1500.0

(Thousands)

1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

5% 0% -5% -10%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F lo r i d a C ha r ts

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1020.0 1000.0 980.0 960.0 940.0 920.0 900.0 880.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1750.0 1700.0 1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

F lo r i d a N e w s S umma r ies

Florida Consumers Turn Sharply More Optimistic In July

• According to the University of Florida, consumer confidence has risen sharply in July to its secondhighest level over the past year. • Record stock market prices, lower gas prices, and a revived housing market are all reasons why consumers believe the economy is looking up.

• The largest increase of confidence came from consumers’ expectations that their personal finances would be in better shape a year from now.

• Uncertainties stemming from the presidential campaigns, “Brexit,” and weak wage growth in the state were not enough to hinder rising optimism.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, July 29, 2016

Florida GDP Outpacing U.S. Economic Output Thanks to Strong Real Estate, Construction Sectors • During the first quarter, Florida GDP outpaced the country as a whole and all other toppopulation states. • Florida ranked 10th for GDP among all states during the first quarter, and was driven by real estate, construction, and retail.

• Florida industries whose output fell included entertainment, accommodation and food services (tourism included), along with transportation and warehousing, and utilities.

• Nationwide GDP was 1.8 percent in the first quarter; Florida is suggested to continue growing faster than the nation with a steady inflow of new residents and jobs.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, July 27, 2016

Zika Fallout: Economists Slice Revenue Forecasts Again

• Economists shaved nearly $270 million off of estimated revenue for next year’s budget as threat of a Zika hit over the Florida economy looms.

• The state is still expected to run a $1.4 billion surplus in the current year, resulting in $1.7 billion available next year. However, $400 million of the surplus is funding the BP settlement from the oil disaster six years ago, and lawmakers set aside at

least $1 billion each year to shield the budget from unexpected shortfalls.

• Zika will act as a “black swan” in a proposed annual three-year outlook for the state budget. Black swans are events that have a low likelihood of occurring but would have a large impact on the state budget if they do.

Source: Naples Herald August 16, 2016

Long-standing architecture firm behind projects at Lauderdale airport, Nova Southeastern University

• ACAI recently began two projects at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. The projects are expected to have a combined revenue of $3 million, making ACAI the 16th-largest airport terminal architecture firm. • ACAI completed a 218,000-square-foot building for Nova Southeastern University, which required an investment of about $100 million. • Other projects for ACAI include renovations to the pediatric and neonatal units at Broward Health Medical Center and ‘The Wave’ streetcar project in Fort Lauderdale. ‘The Wave’ project includes designing a maintenance facility for the streetcars, a service that will run along a 2.7-mile stretch.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, August 19, 2016

ITT Tech is closing all of its campuses after federal aid sanctions

• On August 25th, the U.S. Department of Education banned ITT Educational services from enrolling new students who used federal financial aid because the company had become a risk to students and taxpayers. • The Department of Education also required ITT to pay $152 million within 30 days to help cover student refunds and other liabilities if the school closed. • The sudden closing of ITT Technical Institute affected more than 35,000 students and 8,000 employees.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, September 6, 2016

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Deltona – Day tona B each – O r mon d B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia County and Flagler County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 5.0 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $35,500. The average annual wage will be the lowest of the studied areas at $44,100. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.3 percent. Population growth will average 1.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 15,773.42 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 600,756 as of July 1, 2013 census (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 290,977 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.3% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,441 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.9 percent each year. Unemployment will average 5.2 percent.

• Halifax Health – 4,709

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 5.3 percent annually. The Construction and Mining sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.9 percent annually. The Education and Health Services and Manufacturing sectors follow with an average annual growth rate of 2.0 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

• County of Volusia – 3,341

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Volusia County Schools – 7,503 • Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256 • Daytona State College – 1,568

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916 • Frontier Communications – 800

• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

New Smyrna Beach looks to spend less next year

• New Smyrna Beach city officials are proposing a new budget for the 2016-2017 fiscal year that is about $13,000 less than last fiscal year’s budget.

• The budget can vary by the number of city-wide capital projects that are planned to take place within the fiscal year. Though there is a decrease for this year’s budget, funding due to capital projects will increase for the 2017-2018 fiscal year. • There is also a proposed decrease in city contribution to the police and fire pension funds by 2.1% and 8.6%, respectively. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, July 4, 2016

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

New Flagler subdivision receives final approval

• During the Flagler County Commission meeting on September 7th, a new subdivision, Seaside Landings, has received its final approval and may begin construction. Patten Companies is the owner of the property. • Seaside Landings will have a total of 99 properties, which range between a quarter acre of land to 18 acres, situated right outside of Flagler Beach.

• Though the development’s infrastructure is not set to be completed until mid-December, Patten Companies project manager John Patten said, “We’ve sold a third of it already. Now this is a green light so we can start closing our customers, and it’s just very positive news for us.” Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, September 9, 2016 Wheeler dealer: Flagler Bike Run Fun Shop opens in Flagler Beach • Though many bikers and runners can be found in Flagler County, no local businesses have catered to both of these hobbies. This is one of the reasons Tom and Kelli Nugent have opened Flagler Bike Run Fun Shop in the Oceanview Plaza. • While the shop sells and rents bicycles, it also sells running shoes as well as gear for biking and running. To complement their store, they will also sponsor “weekly runs and rides.”

• JetBlue in particular received good numbers from July, with 85% of all seats available on their flights to and from John F. Kennedy International Airport being filled.

• Director of business development at Daytona Beach International Airport Jay Cassens said, “If we can continue to do well this fall, it will bode well for additional JetBlue air service in 2017.” Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, August 29, 2016 Volusia council supports ‘visionary’ Embry-Riddle research park

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University continued to advance the school and requested $1.5 million from the Volusia City Council to be used as startup funds for companies using their research park. • In addition, Embry-Riddle had also asked to purchase county-owned land for half of its value, which is $400,000.

• With these additions, Embry-Riddle says there would be an expected $1.8 billion contribution to economic development along with an increase in local high-paying jobs. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, August 4, 2016

• Co-owner Tom Nugent said, “I’ve been a cyclist and runner for the last eight years. I thought Flagler Beach had a need for a store like this.” Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, September 10, 2016 Passenger traffic jumps at Daytona airport

• During July of 2016, Daytona Beach International Airport serviced a total of 60,262 passengers, according to unofficial numbers from the county, which is 12.8% more passengers compared to July 2015.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Deltona â€“ Day tona B each â€“ O r mon d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

16500.0 16000.0 15500.0 15000.0 14500.0 14000.0 13500.0 13000.0 12500.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 210.0

(Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Deltona Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

0.8

(Millions 2000 $)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20.2 3.5 6.3 13.8 19.5 0.8 34.0 33.0 36.3 0.2

20.6 2.0 6.6 14.0 19.6 0.3 34.5 32.8 37.3 2.9

21.0 2.0 6.7 14.2 19.7 0.7 34.8 32.7 37.6 0.6

22.1 5.2 7.1 15.0 20.4 3.5 36.0 33.3 38.6 2.9

23.1 4.8 7.5 15.6 21.3 4.5 37.0 34.1 39.7 2.8

24.2 4.6 8.1 16.1 22.1 3.5 38.0 34.7 41.4 4.1

25.3 4.8 8.6 16.7 22.7 2.9 39.2 35.2 43.1 4.3

26.6 5.1 9.1 17.6 23.5 3.2 40.6 35.8 45.1 4.4

28.1 5.4 9.6 18.5 24.3 3.4 42.2 36.5 47.0 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 173.5 175.2 177.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.0 1.6 Manufacturing 9.1 9.3 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.7 2.8 5.8 Nonmanufacturing 164.4 165.9 168.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 0.9 1.3 Construction & Mining 8.2 8.5 9.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.6 3.3 9.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.5 33.8 33.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 0.9 -0.2 Wholesale Trade 5.0 4.9 4.6 Retail Trade 26.5 26.8 27.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.0 2.1 2.2 Information 3.1 2.9 2.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 -5.7 -5.1 Financial Activities 8.1 8.4 8.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 4.3 1.2 Prof & Business Services 17.8 18.5 19.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.8 4.7 Educ & Health Services 34.8 34.9 35.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 0.5 1.9 Leisure & Hospitality 25.2 25.9 26.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 3.0 2.5 Other Services 8.3 8.3 8.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 0.1 -0.1 Federal Government 1.4 1.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -17.1 -8.2 -1.9 State & Local Government 24.0 23.2 22.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -3.3 -3.0

182.3 2.5 10.5 6.2 171.8 2.3 10.1 8.7 34.5 2.3 4.5 27.7 2.3 2.6 -5.2 8.4 -0.8 20.2 4.0 36.3 2.0 27.9 4.9 8.4 0.2 1.3 2.0 22.1 -1.9

188.1 3.2 10.8 3.5 177.3 3.2 11.1 9.9 35.8 3.8 4.7 28.7 2.4 2.5 -2.9 8.7 3.2 21.4 6.1 36.8 1.4 29.1 4.5 8.3 -0.4 1.3 1.2 22.1 -0.1

195.0 3.7 11.3 4.6 183.6 3.6 11.5 3.6 38.0 6.0 4.8 30.7 2.5 2.5 -3.1 8.9 2.4 23.5 9.9 38.1 3.5 29.2 0.2 8.3 -0.2 1.3 0.1 22.3 0.9

198.6 1.9 11.5 1.2 187.1 1.9 12.2 5.9 38.3 0.7 4.8 30.9 2.5 2.4 -2.1 9.0 1.5 24.7 5.1 38.9 2.0 29.5 1.3 8.3 -0.3 1.3 0.5 22.5 0.7

200.5 1.0 11.5 0.5 189.0 1.0 12.7 4.2 38.0 -0.7 4.9 30.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 9.1 0.2 25.7 4.1 39.2 0.7 29.7 0.5 8.2 -0.6 1.3 -1.0 22.6 0.8

202.5 1.0 11.6 0.9 190.8 1.0 13.0 1.9 38.0 -0.1 5.0 30.4 2.6 2.5 0.5 9.1 0.4 26.3 2.2 39.8 1.5 29.9 0.7 8.2 0.1 1.3 -1.2 22.8 0.9

612.2 1.6 281.7 0.6 6.9 1959.0 1792.3 167.0

624.6 2.0 282.8 0.4 5.8 1503.9 1350.3 154.0

635.9 1.8 288.2 1.9 5.0 2058.5 1821.2 237.0

646.1 1.6 295.3 2.5 5.0 4193.6 3291.3 902.0

655.5 1.5 302.2 2.4 5.2 5417.6 4013.6 1404.0

665.3 1.5 307.8 1.8 5.5 5683.2 4077.2 1606.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

592.5 0.3 279.7 0.1 11.3 1178.1 659.8 518.0

596.5 0.7 279.7 0.0 9.6 1010.3 993.3 17.0

602.7 1.0 279.9 0.1 8.2 1891.9 1655.5 236.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Deltona – Day tona B each – O r mon d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

24 4.3 8 16

24.3 4.7 8.2 16.2

24.6 4.8 8.3 16.3

24.9 4.9 8.4 16.5

25.2 5 8.6 16.6

25.5 4.7 8.7 16.8

25.8 4.6 8.8 17

26.2 5 8.9 17.3

26.5 5.1 9 17.5

26.8 5.2 9.1 17.6

27.1 5.3 9.3 17.9

27.5 5.2 9.4 18.1

27.9 5.3 9.5 18.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

22 3.3

22.2 3.8

22.4 3.5

22.5 3.2

22.7 3.2

22.8 2.7

23 2.7

23.2 3.1

23.4 3.2

23.5 3.3

23.7 3.3

24 3.3

24.2 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

37.8 34.6

38.2 34.8

38.5 34.9

38.8 35

39.1 35.1

39.4 35.2

39.7 35.4

40.1 35.6

40.5 35.7

40.8 35.8

41.1 36

41.6 36.2

42 36.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.1 4

41.6 4.5

42 3.8

42.4 4

42.9 4.5

43.4 4.3

43.8 4.3

44.3 4.5

44.8 4.5

45.3 4.4

45.8 4.4

46.2 4.3

46.7 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

194.7 4

195.8 3.7

196.8 3.3

197.6 2.6

198.4 1.9

198.9 1.6

199.4 1.3

199.7 1

200.3 1

200.8 1

201.3 0.9

201.7 1

202.2 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 5.3

11.4 4.1

11.4 3

11.4 1.7

11.5 1

11.5 1.1

11.5 0.9

11.5 0.4

11.5 0.1

11.6 0.5

11.6 0.7

11.6 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

183.4 3.9

184.4 3.6

185.4 3.3

186.2 2.7

187 2

187.4 1.6

187.9 1.3

188.2 1.1

188.8 1

189.3 1

189.7 1

190.1 1

190.6 0.9

11.5 3.3

11.6 3.8

11.8 4.2

12 7.5

12.1 5.6

12.3 5.6

12.4 5.1

12.6 4.7

12.7 4.4

12.8 4.3

12.9 3.5

12.9 3.1

13 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

38 6.9

38.1 5.9

38.3 5.1

38.3 1.9

38.3 0.8

38.3 0.4

38.2 -0.1

38 -0.7

38 -0.9

38 -0.8

38 -0.7

38 -0.2

38 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 30.8 2.5

4.8 30.9 2.5

4.8 31 2.5

4.8 30.9 2.5

4.9 30.8 2.5

4.9 30.6 2.5

4.9 30.5 2.6

5 30.4 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 -3.8

2.5 -3.6

2.5 -0.9

2.5 -0.3

2.4 -1.3

2.4 -3.9

2.4 -2.9

2.4 -1.5

2.5 2.7

2.5 5.3

2.5 4.5

2.5 2.1

2.5 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 2.4

8.9 1.9

9 2.3

9 1.9

9 2

9 1.2

9 0.7

9 0.2

9.1 0.3

9.1 0.2

9.1 0.6

9.1 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 11.7

23.8 11.1

24 7.3

24.3 6.7

24.6 4.6

24.8 4.4

25.1 4.6

25.4 4.5

25.7 4.5

25.9 4.2

25.9 3.2

26 2.4

26.2 1.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

38.1 3.2

38.3 3.8

38.6 5.1

38.7 3.3

38.9 2.1

39 1.6

39 1

39 0.6

39.1 0.5

39.2 0.7

39.4 1.1

39.6 1.5

39.7 1.6

29 0.4

29.2 -0.4

29.3 -0.8

29.4 0.9

29.5 1.5

29.6 1.4

29.7 1.4

29.6 0.9

29.6 0.6

29.7 0.3

29.8 0.3

29.8 0.6

29.9 0.7

8.3 -0.3

8.3 -0.9

8.3 -0.5

8.3 -0.7

8.3 0.1

8.3 0

8.2 -0.6

8.2 -0.8

8.2 -0.7

8.2 -0.5

8.2 -0.3

8.2 0

8.2 0.1

1.3 0.1

1.3 -0.3

1.3 -1.8

1.3 0

1.3 1.8

1.3 0.5

1.3 -0.1

1.3 -0.5

1.3 -1

1.3 -1.2

1.3 -1.4

1.3 -4.8

1.3 -2.4

22.3 0.8

22.4 1.2

22.4 1

22.4 0.8

22.5 0.4

22.5 0.5

22.6 0.7

22.6 0.8

22.7 0.9

22.8 0.8

22.8 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

634.6 1.8

637.4 1.8

640.1 1.8

642.5 1.7

644.9 1.6

647.3 1.6

649.6 1.5

651.7 1.4

654.2 1.4

656.7 1.5

659.2 1.5

661.6 1.5

664.1 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

287.2 1.6

288.2 2.2

290.3 2.1

292.2 1.8

294.3 2.5

296.4 2.8

298.1 2.7

299.8 2.6

301.5 2.4

303 2.2

304.6 2.2

305.9 2

307.2 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

1666 1531 134

2149 1884 264

2699 2290 409

3361 2753 609

4020 3181 840

4465 3478 987

4928 3753 1174

5204 3930 1274

5410 4044 1366

5522 4068 1454

5534 4013 1522

5582 4001 1581

5639 4041 1599

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

Gaines v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the central-north portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 4.8 percent growth, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $38,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.1 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at $50,300. Population growth will tie with Pensacola for the lowest of the studied areas at 1.0 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 10,924.38 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.1 percent annually, the second lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 4.0 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 3.2 percent annually. This is followed by the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.0 percent. The Federal Government will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.5 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 136,937 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.7% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,425 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• University of Florida – 27,870 • UFHealth – 12,000

• Alachua County School Board – 4,200

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 3,500 • City of Gainesville – 2,270

• Publix Supermarkets – 2,160

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,100 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 950 • Wal-Mart Stores – 910

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Marion County, Ocala OK AutoZone incentives

• An AutoZone distribution and warehouse facility is coming to Marion County in the near future. The company has more than 5,000 stores in the Unites States, Puerto Rico, Brazil, and Mexico.

• A tax incentive deal was made that will require the city and county to pay AutoZone $3.75 million over 30 years. AutoZone, in return, will hire at least 192 full-time employees, pay property taxes to the city and county, and buy their power from Ocala. • The facility will be 444,000-square-feet and is expected to have a big financial impact on the community by boosting the local economy and encouraging other businesses to open in response to this large expansion. Source: Gainesville Sun, August 16, 2016 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville

Winn-Dixie set to close Main Street store

• The Winn-Dixie at 2500 N. Main St. in the Northside Shopping Center of Gainesville will be closing its doors in early October. The company doesn’t have any plans to close its other locations in the area, only this single “underperforming store.” • The company is encouraging its employees at this location to apply for open positions at the other stores nearby so they are not unemployed.

• Local residents who shop at this store are disappointed and took the closing of this store as a shock. A clearance sale has begun, and the location will be picked up by a new company soon. Source: Gainesville Sun, September 8, 2016 Aldi plans job fair

• The Gainesville area now has two Aldi stores.

• The discount grocery chain is hosting a job fair coming up at the Hilton University of Florida Conference Center, aiming to hire around 60 employees.

• Aldi is looking for employees for multiple positions, including managers. Source: Gainesville Sun, September 6, 2016 Innovation Square set to grow with four-story building on tap

• Innovation Square in the 800 block of Southwest 2nd Ave. will be home to a four-story, 60,000-sqaure-foot office building. The building will be primarily for office space, but the first floor could have a retail space and a laboratory space.

• The space is designed to bring in graduating companies from UF’s innovation hub, tech startups, retailers, restaurants, major technology companies, and university spinoffs. • Construction is expected to begin early next year. Source: Gainesville Sun, August 22, 2016

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

Chamber unveils new marketing logo to lure business • Gainesville’s Council for Economic Outreach created a new logo to draw in businesses to the Gainesville area. The logo will represent the area’s global marketing campaign to recruit businesses to Gainesville.

• The logo was strategically designed to pinpoint Gainesville’s location on a map of Florida with a lime green and magenta color scheme. “The Greater Gainesville Region” is located in a big font on the logo with “Talent + Innovation + Opportunity” in smaller print. The bold color scheme was specifically chosen to stand out among the logos of other economic development organizations and to catch the attention of prospective tenants. • Over 60 local employers in the area donated $6 million to the area’s economic development plan and marketing campaign. They hope to bring in new opportunities and jobs to the area by drawing in businesses from all over. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 14, 2016 Cade Museum gets $500,000 state grant for learning labs

• Florida Department of State gave a $500,000 grant to the Cade Museum for Creativity to build handson learning labs. • The grant will fund a Creativity Lab and a Fabrication Lab. The Fabrication Lab will be designed to introduce students to laser cutters, robotics, coding, and 3D printers: all cutting-edge technology. The Creativity Lab will demonstrate invention and teach culture, history, and design through hands-on lessons. • The museum is expected to be up and running in fall 2017. It will include programming, events, rental facilities, and interactive exhibits.

Source: Gainesville Sun, July 18, 2016

Gaines v ille Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

11500.0

8.0%

10000.0

6.0%

9500.0 9000.0

4.0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

8500.0 8000.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0 10500.0

145.0

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Gainesville Payroll Employment

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

9.7 5.4 5.3 4.5 9.4 2.7 36.5 35.3 41.4 1.4

9.8 1.1 5.4 4.4 9.4 -0.6 36.6 34.9 42.1 1.8

10.0 1.8 5.6 4.4 9.4 0.5 37.0 34.8 43.1 2.2

10.5 5.0 5.9 4.7 9.7 3.4 38.4 35.5 44.4 3.1

11.0 4.9 6.2 4.9 10.2 4.6 39.7 36.6 45.6 2.6

11.5 4.3 6.5 5.0 10.5 3.2 40.9 37.4 47.1 3.4

12.1 4.8 6.9 5.2 10.8 3.0 42.5 38.1 49.1 4.3

12.7 5.1 7.2 5.5 11.2 3.2 44.2 39.0 51.3 4.5

13.3 5.1 7.5 5.8 11.5 3.1 46.1 39.9 53.5 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 126.7 128.0 128.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 1.1 0.7 Manufacturing 4.4 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 0.3 0.2 Nonmanufacturing 122.3 123.6 124.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 1.1 0.7 Construction & Mining 3.8 4.3 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.7 10.5 2.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.0 18.1 18.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 0.5 0.9 Wholesale Trade 2.4 2.5 2.7 Retail Trade 13.4 13.3 13.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.4 2.5 Information 1.5 1.4 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -2.9 1.1 Financial Activities 6.1 6.3 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 3.6 -2.0 Prof & Business Services 10.8 11.3 11.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 4.5 1.3 Educ & Health Services 22.4 22.8 23.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 2.2 1.1 Leisure & Hospitality 13.3 13.4 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.7 2.9 Other Services 4.1 4.1 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -1.7 0.4 Federal Government 4.4 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2 -1.2 0.8 State & Local Government 37.8 37.5 37.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -0.8 -0.3

131.1 1.7 4.2 -3.5 126.9 1.9 4.4 0.6 18.8 2.6 2.8 13.4 2.6 1.5 0.6 6.3 0.9 12.3 8.2 23.7 2.7 13.8 0.3 4.2 3.7 4.5 1.6 37.4 0.0

134.4 2.5 4.4 3.9 130.0 2.5 4.7 7.8 19.5 4.0 2.9 13.9 2.7 1.5 1.7 6.5 3.4 12.8 4.0 24.1 1.6 14.3 3.6 4.5 7.3 4.6 2.4 37.4 0.0

137.2 2.1 4.6 3.6 132.6 2.0 4.8 1.3 19.8 1.3 2.9 14.0 2.8 1.5 -1.0 6.6 1.8 13.2 2.8 25.2 4.4 15.0 4.8 4.6 1.2 4.7 1.4 37.3 -0.1

138.9 1.2 4.6 1.3 134.3 1.2 5.0 4.9 19.8 0.0 2.9 14.0 2.9 1.5 -2.2 6.7 1.0 13.7 4.3 25.5 1.1 15.3 1.8 4.6 -0.2 4.7 0.2 37.6 0.7

139.7 0.6 4.7 0.6 135.0 0.6 5.2 4.0 19.6 -1.1 2.9 13.8 2.9 1.5 2.2 6.7 -0.1 14.3 3.9 25.5 0.1 15.3 0.3 4.5 -1.1 4.6 -1.7 37.9 0.8

140.5 0.6 4.7 1.0 135.8 0.6 5.3 1.7 19.5 -0.6 2.9 13.6 2.9 1.5 0.0 6.7 0.1 14.5 1.9 25.7 0.8 15.4 0.5 4.5 -0.4 4.5 -1.9 38.2 0.9

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

274.0 1.2 136.4 0.2 5.3 709.5 492.7 217.0

277.6 1.3 136.6 0.2 4.6 941.4 508.8 433.0

281.1 1.3 138.0 1.0 4.1 899.4 490.5 409.0

284.0 1.0 140.2 1.6 3.9 1109.9 646.8 463.0

286.5 0.9 142.2 1.4 3.9 1350.5 773.0 578.0

288.6 0.7 143.3 0.8 4.0 1415.6 777.6 638.0

266.9 0.7 135.9 0.4 7.7 447.6 300.5 147.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

268.7 0.7 136.8 0.7 6.8 576.6 400.1 176.0

270.7 0.7 136.2 -0.4 5.8 758.7 548.4 210.0

Gaines v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.4 4.2 6.4 5

11.6 4.1 6.5 5

11.7 4.1 6.6 5.1

11.9 4.5 6.7 5.1

12 5.1 6.8 5.2

12.1 4.9 6.9 5.2

12.3 4.8 7 5.3

12.5 5.1 7.1 5.4

12.6 5.1 7.2 5.4

12.7 5.1 7.2 5.5

12.9 5.1 7.3 5.6

13.1 5 7.4 5.7

13.2 5 7.5 5.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 3.2

10.5 3.3

10.6 2.8

10.7 2.8

10.8 3.3

10.9 2.9

10.9 3

11 3.2

11.1 3.2

11.2 3.2

11.3 3.1

11.4 3.1

11.5 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40.6 37.1

41.1 37.5

41.5 37.6

41.9 37.8

42.3 38

42.6 38.2

43 38.4

43.6 38.7

44 38.9

44.4 39

44.9 39.2

45.4 39.6

45.9 39.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.8 3.2

47.3 3.5

47.8 3.2

48.3 3.4

48.8 4.4

49.4 4.6

50 4.7

50.6 4.7

51.1 4.6

51.6 4.4

52.1 4.3

52.7 4.2

53.2 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

136.9 2.5

137.6 1.8

138.1 1.4

138.5 1.7

138.8 1.4

139 1

139.2 0.8

139.4 0.6

139.6 0.6

139.8 0.6

140 0.6

140.3 0.6

140.4 0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 5.3

4.6 2.6

4.6 2.2

4.6 1.7

4.6 1.1

4.7 1.2

4.7 1

4.7 0.5

4.7 0.3

4.7 0.6

4.7 0.8

4.7 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

132.3 2.4

133 1.8

133.5 1.4

133.9 1.7

134.2 1.4

134.4 1

134.6 0.8

134.7 0.6

135 0.6

135.2 0.6

135.3 0.6

135.6 0.6

135.7 0.6

4.7 0

4.8 0.4

4.9 2.4

4.9 3.5

5 5.5

5.1 5.5

5.1 5.1

5.2 4.5

5.2 4.2

5.3 4.1

5.3 3.3

5.3 2.8

5.3 1.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19.8 2.6

19.8 0.7

19.8 -0.8

19.8 0.4

19.8 0.3

19.8 0

19.7 -0.4

19.6 -1

19.6 -1.2

19.5 -1.1

19.5 -0.7

19.5 -0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.9 14 2.8

2.9 14.1 2.8

2.9 14.1 2.9

2.9 14 2.9

2.9 13.9 2.9

2.9 13.8 2.9

2.9 13.7 2.9

2.9 13.6 2.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 -0.1

1.5 -0.8

1.5 -2.7

1.5 0.7

1.5 -1.8

1.4 -4.3

1.4 -3.4

1.5 -2

1.5 2.2

1.5 4.8

1.5 4

1.5 1.6

1.5 -0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 1.5

6.6 1.4

6.7 0.8

6.7 1.8

6.7 1

6.7 0.4

6.7 0

6.7 -0.1

6.7 0.3

6.7 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 3.1

13.2 3.6

13.4 1.6

13.5 4

13.7 4.4

13.8 4.2

13.9 4.4

14.1 4.3

14.3 4.3

14.3 4

14.4 3

14.4 2.2

14.5 1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.1 5.1

25.2 4

25.4 3.8

25.4 1.6

25.5 1.5

25.5 1

25.4 0.3

25.4 0

25.4 -0.2

25.5 0

25.6 0.4

25.6 0.8

25.7 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.1 5.7

15.2 4

15.2 4.5

15.2 3.5

15.3 1.3

15.3 1.2

15.4 1.2

15.3 0.7

15.3 0.4

15.4 0.1

15.4 0.3

15.4 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 1.4

4.6 1.1

4.6 0.4

4.6 1.1

4.6 -0.3

4.6 -0.5

4.6 -1.1

4.5 -1.3

4.5 -1.2

4.5 -1

4.5 -0.8

4.5 -0.5

4.5 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 1.4

4.7 1.1

4.7 0.2

4.7 0.7

4.7 1.1

4.7 -0.2

4.6 -0.8

4.6 -1.2

4.6 -1.7

4.6 -1.9

4.5 -2.1

4.5 -1.4

4.5 -1.8

37.3 -0.1

37.4 -0.2

37.4 0

37.5 1

37.6 0.8

37.6 0.4

37.7 0.6

37.8 0.7

37.9 0.8

37.9 0.9

38 0.9

38.1 0.9

38.2 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

280.8 1.3

281.5 1.2

282.2 1.1

283 1.1

283.7 1

284.4 1

285 1

285.6 0.9

286.2 0.9

286.8 0.8

287.3 0.8

287.8 0.8

288.3 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

137.6 0.9

137.8 1

138.6 0.9

139.2 0.9

139.9 1.7

140.6 2

141.2 1.9

141.6 1.7

142.1 1.5

142.4 1.3

142.8 1.2

143.1 1

143.3 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

4.2

4.1

3.9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

727 429 298

838 470 368

919 527 392

1007 583 424

1113 641 472

1133 665 468

1186 698 488

1283 748 535

1350 784 566

1379 787 592

1390 773 617

1397 766 630

1409 772 637

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Jacksonville

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.5 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $43,600, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $56,600, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 67,583.43 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 747,636 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.9% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 36,729 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820

• Baptist Health Systems – 8,270

• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500

• Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200

• JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development 40

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

Employment growth is expected to average 2.0 percent annually. Unemployment will average 4.6 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4 percent, and then the Leisure sector with an average growth rate of 2.6 percent. The Information sector is expected to decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Orange Park location among 95 Ruby Tuesday restaurant closings

• Ruby Tuesday recently announced they will be closing 95 of their 724 locations across the country by September.

• Jacksonville is home to four Ruby Tuesday locations, one of which has already shut down. The fate of the other three is unknown until the company announces which locations will be closing. • Ruby Tuesday has experienced a decline in its revenue. At the end of May, revenues fell by $17 million or 5.9% from the same month last year. The Florida Times Union, August 12, 2016

J ackson v ille

Banking firm to add 800 to its Jacksonville payroll

• Jacksonville’s Citibank will be adding at least 800 new employees to its payroll. This substantial increase in employment is a result of business growth the company has seen.

• There are a variety of positions being added, such as customer service, management, fraud investigation, and collections.

• This job announcement is in addition to the 500 jobs added last year in Jacksonville. This sums 1,300 more jobs for Citibank’s Southside campus, which already employs 4,000 people. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 27, 2016 German company to 3D print medical supply equipment in Jacksonville, will add 25 jobs

• KLS Martin Group has been in Jacksonville since 1993, opening its sales office there as its North American headquarters. The company is now looking to open its first U.S. manufacturing facility in Jacksonville as well. • KLS is going to invest $5 million into this facility and will add 25 new jobs to their 1,000 current employee count across the globe.

• The estimated date of completion for the project is September 2021. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 12, 2016 City issues $87-million permit for Amazon Jacksonville facility

• Amazon can soon begin its construction of their new fulfillment center in North Jacksonville after the city granted its $87 million building permit. The center is expected to open in late 2017, with hiring starting in mid-2017. • The Conlan Co. will be in charge of building the facility, which is a little over two million square feet. The facility will be located at 12900 Pecan Park Road. • Amazon is expected to hire about 1,500 people, 500 of which will average a salary of $50,000 a year. The rest will be around the $12-$15/ hour range. Amazon’s total investment in the Jacksonville facility is around $200 million combining equipment, furniture, land, and real estate improvements.

Source: The Florida Times Union, August 23, 2016

• KLS’s recent focus is on 3D printing and precision of products for patient and surgical care. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 20, 2016 Jacksonville company wins $25 million Army Corps of Engineers contract

• Fleming Island’s BVM-VJR JV LLC was recently awarded a $25 million contract. BVM-VJR JV LLC will be in charge of multiple construction projects for the Army Corps of Engineers for the Jacksonville district.

• The construction projects consist of roofing throughout the district, including demolition, repairs, renovation, and construction. The Naval Air Station Jacksonville will receive the first roofing work from the company.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Jacksonville Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.8

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 75000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

70000.0

50000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

45000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0

1.6

55000.0

4.0%

500.0

1.4

60000.0

6.0%

750.0

1.2

65000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Jacksonville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income

J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

55.7 5.4 28.5 27.2 54.0 2.7 40.9 39.6 47.1 1.7

58.1 4.2 29.8 28.3 55.3 2.5 42.1 40.1 48.7 3.3

58.7 1.0 30.5 28.2 55.2 -0.3 41.9 39.4 48.9 0.4

61.6 4.9 32.1 29.5 57.0 3.3 43.2 40.0 50.3 2.8

65.1 5.6 34.2 30.9 60.0 5.3 44.8 41.3 51.6 2.7

68.4 5.1 36.4 32.0 62.4 4.1 46.2 42.2 53.3 3.2

72.1 5.4 38.6 33.5 64.7 3.6 48.0 43.0 55.4 3.9

76.2 5.7 40.8 35.4 67.1 3.8 50.0 44.0 57.7 4.2

80.6 5.8 43.0 37.6 69.6 3.7 52.1 45.1 60.0 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 586.2 594.4 607.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.4 2.3 Manufacturing 27.4 27.9 27.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 1.6 -0.3 Nonmanufacturing 558.8 566.6 580.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.4 2.4 Construction & Mining 27.5 27.8 30.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6 1.1 8.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 124.1 125.4 127.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 1.1 1.9 Wholesale Trade 24.8 24.7 24.7 Retail Trade 69.0 70.2 71.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.3 30.5 31.5 Information 9.6 9.2 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6 -4.0 -0.6 Financial Activities 58.0 60.0 61.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 3.5 2.4 Prof & Business Services 87.5 90.9 94.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.3 3.9 3.4 Educ & Health Services 87.8 89.2 91.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1.6 2.3 Leisure & Hospitality 66.3 69.0 71.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 4.1 4.1 Other Services 21.6 20.3 20.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 -5.9 1.5 Federal Government 17.3 17.3 17.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.9 -0.4 -1.6 State & Local Government 59.2 57.4 56.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -3.0 -0.9

624.1 2.7 28.0 0.8 596.1 2.8 32.7 8.2 130.7 2.3 24.0 73.6 33.0 9.2 0.7 60.9 -0.9 98.2 4.5 93.5 2.4 75.5 5.1 21.7 5.4 16.8 -1.0 56.9 0.2

648.1 3.8 29.5 5.3 618.6 3.8 35.5 8.6 135.6 3.8 24.5 76.6 34.5 9.2 0.1 61.6 1.2 101.3 3.1 97.4 4.2 80.0 6.0 22.7 4.3 17.1 1.4 58.3 2.3

668.9 3.2 30.1 2.1 638.8 3.3 37.4 5.4 140.0 3.2 24.9 79.2 35.9 9.0 -1.9 63.6 3.3 103.1 1.8 101.4 4.1 84.7 5.8 23.3 2.8 17.7 3.7 58.6 0.5

683.4 2.2 30.4 1.1 652.9 2.2 39.3 5.2 141.8 1.3 25.2 79.9 36.7 8.9 -2.1 65.0 2.2 107.5 4.2 103.7 2.3 86.5 2.1 23.4 0.3 17.9 0.8 59.0 0.7

693.4 1.5 30.6 0.6 662.8 1.5 41.4 5.2 142.0 0.1 25.6 79.3 37.1 9.1 2.8 65.4 0.6 112.4 4.6 104.6 0.8 87.4 1.0 23.3 -0.2 17.6 -1.3 59.6 1.0

702.3 1.3 30.9 1.0 671.4 1.3 42.4 2.5 142.6 0.5 26.0 79.3 37.3 9.1 0.5 65.9 0.7 115.6 2.8 106.2 1.6 88.5 1.3 23.4 0.4 17.3 -1.6 60.3 1.1

1424.8 1.8 717.8 1.1 6.2 7577.5 6328.4 1249.0

1452.9 2.0 724.9 1.0 5.2 9825.3 7582.6 2243.0

1479.7 1.8 735.4 1.4 4.6 9887.0 9034.3 853.0

1503.1 1.6 748.0 1.7 4.5 10998.0 8856.0 2142.0

1525.0 1.5 762.0 1.9 4.5 12541.4 9091.7 3450.0

1545.6 1.3 773.4 1.5 4.6 13266.0 9251.8 4014.0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1364.4 1.0 701.5 0.7 9.7 3591.8 3191.5 400.0

1381.3 1.2 704.6 0.4 8.2 6401.4 4571.3 1830.0

1399.8 1.3 709.8 0.7 7.0 7252.4 6164.9 1087.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Jacksonville

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

67.8 5.1 36.1 31.7

68.8 4.9 36.6 32.1

69.7 4.9 37.2 32.5

70.7 5.1 37.8 32.9

71.6 5.6 38.4 33.3

72.6 5.5 38.9 33.6

73.5 5.5 39.5 34

74.7 5.7 40 34.7

75.7 5.7 40.6 35.1

76.7 5.7 41.1 35.6

77.7 5.7 41.6 36.1

79 5.7 42.2 36.8

80 5.7 42.7 37.3

62 4.1

62.7 4.1

63.2 3.6

63.8 3.4

64.4 3.8

64.9 3.5

65.5 3.6

66.3 3.8

66.9 3.8

67.4 3.8

68 3.8

68.7 3.7

69.3 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

45.9 42

46.4 42.3

46.8 42.5

47.3 42.7

47.7 42.9

48.2 43.1

48.6 43.3

49.2 43.7

49.7 43.9

50.2 44.1

50.7 44.3

51.3 44.7

51.9 44.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53 3.4

53.4 3.2

53.9 2.7

54.5 3.1

55.1 4

55.7 4.3

56.2 4.3

56.9 4.3

57.4 4.2

58 4.1

58.6 4.1

59.2 4.1

59.8 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

667.4 3.5

671.3 3

674.9 2.8

678.9 2.5

682.3 2.2

684.8 2

687.6 1.9

689.8 1.6

692.6 1.5

694.7 1.5

696.6 1.3

698.9 1.3

701.1 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 2.5

30.2 1.9

30.2 1.4

30.3 1.2

30.4 0.9

30.6 1

30.6 1.1

30.5 0.9

30.6 0.5

30.6 0.3

30.7 0.5

30.8 0.9

30.9 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

637.3 3.6

641 3.1

644.7 2.9

648.7 2.6

651.9 2.3

654.2 2.1

657 1.9

659.3 1.6

662 1.6

664.1 1.5

665.9 1.4

668.1 1.3

670.2 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

37.4 6.3

37.5 4.6

38 4.6

38.4 4.9

39 4.3

39.6 5.7

40.2 6

40.7 5.9

41.2 5.5

41.7 5.2

42 4.3

42.2 3.5

42.3 2.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

140 3.3

140.5 2.7

141 3.7

141.4 2.1

141.8 1.3

141.9 1.1

142.1 0.8

141.8 0.2

141.9 0.1

142 0.1

142.2 0.1

142.4 0.4

142.5 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

24.9 79.1 36

24.9 79.5 36.1

25 79.8 36.2

25.1 79.9 36.4

25.2 80 36.6

25.3 79.9 36.7

25.4 79.8 36.9

25.4 79.4 36.9

25.5 79.2 37.1

25.6 79.2 37.2

25.8 79.2 37.2

25.9 79.3 37.2

26 79.3 37.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9 -1.8

9 -2.9

9 -2.1

9.1 0.3

8.9 -1.7

8.7 -4.1

8.8 -3

9 -1.5

9.1 2.7

9.1 5.4

9.2 4.6

9.2 2.1

9.2 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

63.4 3.9

64 3.9

64.6 3.3

64.8 3.8

65 2.5

65.1 1.7

65.2 1

65.3 0.7

65.4 0.6

65.5 0.6

65.6 0.6

65.8 0.8

65.9 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

102.3 0.8

103.2 1.9

104 2.7

105.7 2.6

107 4.7

107.9 4.6

109.2 5

110.9 4.9

112.4 5

113.1 4.8

113.4 3.8

114.2 3

115.1 2.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

101.3 4.9

102 4.2

102.8 3.6

103.3 3.8

103.7 2.4

103.9 1.9

104 1.2

104.1 0.8

104.4 0.6

104.7 0.7

105.2 1.1

105.7 1.5

106 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

84.5 6.6

85 5.4

85.4 3.3

85.7 2.3

86.2 2.1

86.8 2.1

87.2 2.1

87.1 1.6

87.2 1.1

87.5 0.8

87.8 0.7

87.9 1

88.3 1.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.3 4.2

23.3 1.8

23.4 1

23.4 0.2

23.3 0.2

23.3 -0.2

23.3 -0.4

23.3 -0.2

23.3 0

23.4 0.3

23.4 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 4.6

17.8 4

17.9 2.4

17.9 1.9

17.9 1.5

17.9 0.2

17.8 -0.4

17.7 -0.8

17.6 -1.3

17.6 -1.6

17.5 -1.7

17.4 -1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.4 0.7

58.7 0.5

58.7 -0.5

58.8 0.6

58.9 0.9

59 0.6

59.2 0.8

59.4 0.9

59.5 1

59.7 1.1

59.8 1.1

60 1.1

60.2 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1476.9 1.9

1482.9 1.8

1488.8 1.7

1494.7 1.7

1500.3 1.6

1506 1.6

1511.5 1.5

1516.9 1.5

1522.3 1.5

1527.7 1.4

1533 1.4

1538.1 1.4

1543.1 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

732.8 1.1

734.6 1.4

738.7 1.4

742.4 0.9

746.2 1.8

750 2.1

753.4 2

757 2

760.4 1.9

763.7 1.8

767.1 1.8

769.6 1.7

772.2 1.6

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.6

9621 9255 366

9515 8799 716

9778 8667 1111

10238 8754 1484

10882 8895 1988

11206 8855 2351

11666 8920 2746

12109 9037 3072

12415 9109 3305

12751 9151 3601

12891 9070 3821

13011 9079 3932

13164 9165 3999

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

L akelan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida, and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland recently welcomed Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 4.9 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $32,200, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $48,600. Population growth is expected to average 1.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 18,417.21 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 281,015 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 5.4 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs.

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540

The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.4 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Construction and Mining sector averaging 2.8 percent annual growth, and the Leisure sector averaging 1.3 percent. The Federal Government, Education and Health services, and Information sectors will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent, -0.5 percent, and -.3 percent, respectively.

• GEICO – 2,300

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• An unemployment rate of 6.0% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,873 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • Watson Clinic – 1,600 • GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900

• Saddle Creek Logistics – 625

• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

Macy’s in Lakeland considered a high risk for closure • Out of Macy’s 728 stores, 100 of them were intended for closure in early August.

• Morningstar Credit Ratings listed two stores in Florida as high-risk locations for closure. One of those stores was a Macy’s location in Lakeland at the Lakeland Square Mall. The report was based on “sales that were less than the company’s national average in 2014.”

• Morningstar’s report also estimated that some of the stores listed wouldn’t be able to compete against areas like shopping centers due to their limited resources from small sales. Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 19, 2016

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

L akelan d

BY THE NUMBERS: Polk unemployment rate at 6 percent

• Although Florida experienced an unchanging unemployment rate for the third month in a row, Lakeland has seen a 0.3 percent increase compared to June, making the unemployment rate for July six percent. • The July unemployment rate is still 0.9 percent lower than July 2015’s rate. As of July 2016, 16,873 out of 281,015 total labor force participants were unemployed. • A total of six industries saw an increase in jobs compared to last year in Lakeland: professional business services, trade, transportation and utilities, leisure and hospitality, financial activities, manufacturing, and other services.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 19, 2016 Mosaics Community Cafe in Bartow closes

• Mosaics Community Café, the first pay-what-youcan café in Polk County, closed as of August 31st.

• Initial hype brought on by the media helped the business attract customers and sponsors. However, that customer base eventually wilted, while bills for utilities, rent, and equipment upkeep eventually led to closure. • Though the café is closing, Mosaics will still participate in pop-up dinners throughout the community and hopes that one day they can reopen.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, September 7, 2016 Pizza vending machine being tested in Lakeland

• Pizza Touch has installed three pizza vending machines in Lakeland and Orlando for testing. The Lakeland machine is located at a Mobil gas station at the South Florida Avenue and Englewood Drive intersection. • The machine in Lakeland was installed in early July and offers three different nine-inch pizzas: four cheese, mushroom and pepper, and cheese (substituted for the regular offering of margherita). 46

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

• With the results of this testing in Florida, Pizza Touch hopes to open another 100 machines throughout Florida. Source: Lakeland Ledger, September 18, 2016 By the numbers: June home sales report released

• Polk County continued to see positive indicators in the home sales market in June of 2016.

• While Florida had a total of 27,086 closed singlefamily home sales, Polk County fulfilled 902 closed single-family home sales, which is 4.4% higher than the total for June of 2015. • Single-family homes as well as townhomes in Polk County have seen positive year-over-year growth in the median sales prices consecutively for the last 55 months. In June 2016, the median sales price for single-family homes was $164,700, which is 12% higher than June 2015. Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 21, 2016

L akelan d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

19000.0

17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

14000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

1.5

18000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Lakeland Payroll Employment

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

L akelan d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

19.7 6.0 7.7 12.0 19.1 3.2 32.3 31.3 40.5 1.7

19.5 -1.1 8.0 11.5 18.6 -2.8 31.6 30.1 41.2 1.8

19.8 1.5 8.3 11.4 18.6 0.1 31.7 29.8 41.9 1.7

20.7 4.8 8.7 12.0 19.2 3.1 32.5 30.1 42.9 2.2

21.9 5.5 9.2 12.6 20.2 5.1 33.5 30.9 44.1 2.9

22.8 4.4 9.8 13.1 20.8 3.3 34.4 31.4 45.8 3.8

23.9 4.8 10.3 13.6 21.4 3.0 35.5 31.9 47.6 4.0

25.1 5.2 10.8 14.3 22.2 3.3 36.9 32.5 49.6 4.1

26.5 5.4 11.3 15.2 22.9 3.4 38.4 33.2 51.5 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 189.9 192.6 197.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.4 2.5 Manufacturing 14.2 14.6 15.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 3.0 8.8 Nonmanufacturing 175.8 178.0 181.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.3 1.9 Construction & Mining 10.3 10.2 10.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 -1.3 6.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 45.9 47.1 48.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.5 2.1 Wholesale Trade 9.0 9.2 9.4 Retail Trade 24.4 24.6 25.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.5 13.2 13.3 Information 1.6 1.6 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.7 -2.9 -1.5 Financial Activities 11.6 11.4 11.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -1.3 1.7 Prof & Business Services 24.3 25.4 26.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4 4.5 2.3 Educ & Health Services 29.6 29.4 30.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 -0.8 2.3 Leisure & Hospitality 17.8 18.9 19.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 6.2 4.0 Other Services 5.4 5.3 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1 -1.9 0.1 Federal Government 1.2 1.1 1.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.7 -7.5 -3.7 State & Local Government 27.9 27.6 27.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -1.2 -1.5

201.8 2.2 16.4 3.3 185.4 2.1 11.4 4.1 49.4 2.8 9.5 26.5 13.5 1.6 1.1 11.7 1.0 27.1 4.2 30.5 1.3 20.8 5.8 5.6 5.3 1.0 -6.2 26.3 -3.3

208.2 3.2 16.5 0.6 191.7 3.4 12.1 6.5 51.8 4.7 10.1 27.2 14.5 1.6 0.5 12.2 4.0 27.8 2.5 30.8 1.2 22.2 7.0 5.7 2.0 1.1 6.7 26.4 0.5

211.8 1.7 16.8 1.6 195.1 1.8 12.4 2.9 53.4 3.3 10.4 27.9 15.2 1.6 -0.5 12.6 3.2 29.5 6.3 29.7 -3.7 23.0 3.3 5.8 0.6 1.1 2.2 26.0 -1.6

214.8 1.4 16.9 0.8 197.9 1.4 12.9 3.5 53.8 0.6 10.5 27.9 15.4 1.6 -2.5 12.8 1.3 31.0 5.0 29.8 0.5 23.2 1.2 5.7 -0.5 1.1 0.3 26.1 0.2

216.8 0.9 17.0 0.5 199.8 0.9 13.4 3.7 53.6 -0.3 10.6 27.5 15.6 1.6 2.0 12.8 0.0 32.3 4.2 29.9 0.3 23.3 0.3 5.6 -1.4 1.1 -1.6 26.2 0.6

218.5 0.8 17.2 0.9 201.3 0.8 13.5 1.2 53.7 0.1 10.7 27.4 15.7 1.6 -0.2 12.8 0.2 33.0 2.3 30.3 1.1 23.4 0.5 5.6 -0.7 1.1 -1.8 26.4 0.7

637.3 2.0 279.3 0.2 7.2 2538.4 2533.4 5.0

651.6 2.2 279.9 0.2 6.2 2821.5 2788.0 33.0

663.1 1.8 281.0 0.4 5.5 3805.8 3143.0 663.0

672.5 1.4 284.3 1.2 5.3 4851.7 3831.7 1020.0

681.5 1.3 288.2 1.4 5.3 4946.3 4140.4 806.0

689.9 1.2 291.0 1.0 5.4 5083.9 4126.7 957.0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

610.3 1.0 276.9 -0.6 11.3 1117.2 1061.9 55.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

616.6 1.0 277.3 0.2 9.7 1454.1 1400.0 54.0

624.8 1.3 278.8 0.5 8.3 1943.3 1915.1 28.0

L akelan d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.6 4.3 9.7 13

22.9 4 9.8 13.1

23.2 4.1 9.9 13.3

23.5 4.4 10.1 13.4

23.8 5.1 10.2 13.6

24 4.9 10.4 13.7

24.3 4.8 10.5 13.8

24.7 5.1 10.6 14.1

25 5.1 10.7 14.3

25.3 5.2 10.9 14.4

25.6 5.3 11 14.6

26 5.3 11.1 14.9

26.3 5.4 11.3 15.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.7 3.4

20.9 3.2

21.1 2.7

21.2 2.7

21.4 3.3

21.5 2.9

21.7 2.9

21.9 3.2

22.1 3.3

22.2 3.3

22.4 3.3

22.6 3.3

22.8 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

34.2 31.3

34.5 31.5

34.8 31.6

35.1 31.7

35.4 31.8

35.7 31.9

36 32.1

36.4 32.3

36.7 32.4

37 32.6

37.4 32.7

37.8 32.9

38.2 33.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.5 4

46 4

46.5 3.3

46.9 3.6

47.4 4.1

47.9 4.1

48.3 4

48.8 4.1

49.3 4.1

49.8 4

50.3 4

50.8 4

51.3 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

211 2

212 1.1

212.8 0.8

213.8 1.1

214.6 1.7

215.1 1.5

215.7 1.3

216 1

216.6 0.9

217.1 0.9

217.4 0.8

217.8 0.8

218.3 0.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

16.7 1.5

16.8 1.5

16.8 0.6

16.8 0.1

16.9 1

17 1.1

17 0.9

17 0.5

17 0.2

17.1 0.5

17.1 0.8

17.1 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

194.3 2

195.2 1

196.1 0.9

197 1.2

197.7 1.8

198.2 1.5

198.7 1.3

199 1

199.6 1

200 1

200.3 0.8

200.7 0.8

201.1 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.2 3.1

12.4 1.3

12.5 -0.3

12.7 -0.2

12.8 4.7

13 4.8

13.1 4.7

13.2 4.3

13.3 3.9

13.4 3.7

13.5 2.9

13.5 2.3

13.5 1.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

53.4 3.3

53.5 2.4

53.6 2.4

53.7 0.6

53.8 0.8

53.8 0.7

53.8 0.4

53.6 -0.1

53.6 -0.3

53.7 -0.3

53.7 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.4 27.9 15.1

10.4 28 15.2

10.5 28 15.3

10.5 27.9 15.4

10.5 27.8 15.5

10.5 27.6 15.5

10.6 27.5 15.6

10.6 27.4 15.6

10.7 27.4 15.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -0.3

1.6 -0.4

1.6 -1.2

1.6 0.1

1.6 -2

1.5 -4.5

1.5 -3.6

1.6 -2.2

1.6 2

1.6 4.6

1.6 3.8

1.6 1.4

1.6 -0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.5 3.8

12.6 2.3

12.7 2.1

12.7 1.8

12.8 1

12.8 0.5

12.7 0

12.8 0.1

12.8 0

12.8 0.4

12.8 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.5 9.1

29.8 7.3

30 4

30.5 6.2

30.9 4.6

31.1 4.5

31.4 4.7

31.9 4.6

32.3 4.6

32.4 4.3

32.5 3.3

32.7 2.5

32.9 1.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.4 -4.8

29.5 -5

29.7 -2.2

29.8 -1.1

29.9 1.6

29.9 1.1

29.9 0.5

29.8 0.2

29.9 0

29.9 0.2

30 0.7

30.2 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.9 4.1

23 2.2

23.1 1

23.1 1.1

23.2 1.2

23.3 1.2

23.3 0.6

23.3 0.3

23.3 0.1

23.3 0.3

23.4 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 2

5.8 -0.9

5.8 -1.3

5.8 1.1

5.7 -0.7

5.7 -0.9

5.7 -1.4

5.7 -1.6

5.6 -1.5

5.6 -1.3

5.6 -1.1

5.6 -0.8

5.6 -0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.1 2.8

1.1 0.8

1.1 -1.2

1.1 1.3

1.1 1

1.1 -0.2

1.1 -0.7

1.1 -1.2

1.1 -1.6

1.1 -1.8

1.1 -2

1 -4.7

1 -2.7

25.9 -2.7

26 -2.4

26 -1.6

26 -0.1

26 0.5

26.1 0.2

26.1 0.4

26.2 0.5

26.2 0.6

26.2 0.7

26.3 0.7

26.4 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

661.9 1.8

664.5 1.7

666.9 1.6

669.2 1.5

671.4 1.4

673.7 1.4

675.9 1.4

678.1 1.3

680.4 1.3

682.7 1.3

684.8 1.3

686.9 1.3

688.9 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

280.1 0.3

280.3 -0.1

281.5 0.1

282.6 0.1

283.8 1.3

285 1.7

286 1.6

286.9 1.5

287.8 1.4

288.6 1.3

289.5 1.2

290.1 1.1

290.8 1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.4

3493 3015 478

3879 3158 722

4257 3366 892

4609 3598 1011

4903 3805 1098

4968 3921 1047

4927 4003 925

4945 4117 828

4900 4166 734

4982 4176 806

4958 4103 856

4988 4075 913

5035 4099 936

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – Fo r t L au d e r dale – P ompano B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami, the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.0 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $48,400 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.8 percent; although, the average annual wage level is expected to be $59,200, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.2 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 300,033.08 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 3,045,347 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 155,624 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council 50

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.7 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 5.0 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at an average of 5.3 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 3.7 percent each year. The Federal Government will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.3 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Largest lawsuit against an auditor goes to court for $5.5 billion

• The largest-ever lawsuit against an auditing firm opened up in a Miami-Dade Circuit Court. The case pitted Big Four firm PwC against a trustee of the defunct Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corporation. • Taylor, Bean & Whitaker was one of the nation’s largest mortgage companies before federal agents raided it in 2009 after the banking crisis.

• PwC was the independent auditor in charge of the audit process and is being accused that the fraud went undetected due to “gross-negligence.” PwC admits it was tricked, but argues the audit process is to follow accounting principle, which might not detect fraud. Source: Miami Herald July 29, 2016

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Orange Bowl college football game was key driver of $228 million economic impact for S. Florida

• The Orange Bowl college football playoff semifinal game, along with other events, generated $227.7 million in economic impact and media exposure. • The Orange Bowl events attracted about $80,000 visitors to South Florida, with 95 percent of game attendees coming from outside the area.

• Out-of-town visitors for the game booked 128,000 hotel room nights.

• As a result of the Orange Bowl events, about 1,910 full- and part-time jobs were generated in South Florida. Source: Sun-Sentinel July 18, 2016 FPL chief defends $1.3B rate request

• The president of Florida Power & Light proposed $1.3 billion in base-rate hikes to provide investment and infrastructure opportunities. • The money would be tied to the start of a new power plant in Okeechobee County.

• The prices for consumers would rise from $91.94 to $101.18 in 2017, $104.45 in 2018, and $107.29 in 2019. The national average was $137.29 in 2015. • Robert Scheffel Wright, an attorney representing the Florida Retail Federation, said, “Even if the commission froze FPL’s rates at current levels FPL can pay all of its bills and employees and still support its investments in 2017.”

• Some of the smaller insurers have begun to tailor plans to lower-income consumers with access to limited networks of doctors, specialists, and hospitals and are not facing the same losses.

• Mark Cherry, principal analyst, along with health care industry analyst Decision Resources Group, said, “Fewer insurers on the exchange in 2017 could lessen confusion and make comparison shopping easier which could eventually make rates more competitive.” Source: Sun Sentinel August 19, 2016 Coconut Grove luxury condo hopes to defy market trends

• ROVR development has released plans for a fivestory, 26-residency, waterfront luxury condominium development. • Residencies will range from 1,700 to 4,200 square feet with prices from $1.4 million to $4.5 million, with construction beginning in early 2017.

• Between January and June, eight luxury condo units closed in the Grove this year. Peter Zalewski, a principal of Miami real estate consultancy, believes the luxury condo market is over-saturated. However, Oscar Rodriguez, co-developer, believes the location will set their development apart from the competition. Source: Miami Herald, September 7, 2016

Source: Miami Herald August 22, 2016 Obamacare choices shrinking in South Florida, but experts say that might not be bad

• Large insurers have been pulling out of many markets throughout the U.S. – including the largest Obamacare market, South Florida. • Humana said it planned to reduce its presence across the nation from 1,351 counties in 19 states this year, to 156 counties in 11 states next year.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami â€“ Fo r t L au d e r dale â€“ P ompano B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 320000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

300000.0

220000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

200000.0

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0

1.2

240000.0

4.0%

2100.0

260000.0

6.0%

2700.0

0.8

280000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Miami Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

256.7 5.9 110.9 145.9 248.8 3.2 44.9 43.5 49.3 1.8

270.0 5.2 115.7 154.3 257.1 3.4 46.6 44.4 50.3 2.0

272.3 0.8 120.3 152.0 255.9 -0.5 46.4 43.6 50.9 1.2

286.0 5.0 127.9 158.1 264.5 3.4 48.1 44.5 52.4 2.9

300.7 5.1 136.0 164.6 277.2 4.8 49.9 46.0 53.9 3.0

313.7 4.4 144.0 169.7 286.4 3.3 51.5 47.0 55.8 3.5

329.1 4.9 152.3 176.7 295.2 3.1 53.4 47.9 57.9 3.8

346.6 5.3 160.6 186.0 305.3 3.4 55.5 48.9 60.3 4.1

365.6 5.5 168.6 196.9 315.9 3.5 57.9 50.0 62.6 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 2234.1 2286.7 2349.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2.4 2.7 Manufacturing 76.3 77.0 77.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.9 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 2157.7 2209.7 2271.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2.4 2.8 Construction & Mining 85.7 87.1 93.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 1.7 7.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 520.4 537.1 550.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.2 2.5 Wholesale Trade 134.5 139.1 140.7 Retail Trade 294.9 303.7 313.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 91.0 94.2 96.7 Information 44.1 45.2 46.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 2.5 2.8 Financial Activities 156.4 161.4 164.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 3.2 2.0 Prof & Business Services 339.3 353.0 371.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 4.0 5.2 Educ & Health Services 341.0 341.7 346.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 0.2 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 262.0 275.6 286.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 5.2 3.9 Other Services 103.9 108.5 111.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 4.5 3.0 Federal Government 34.1 33.8 33.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.9 -1.0 -0.8 State & Local Government 270.9 266.3 267.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 -1.7 0.3

2428.0 3.3 81.1 4.2 2346.9 3.3 102.5 9.7 567.2 3.0 142.9 324.8 99.6 47.8 2.9 168.8 2.6 389.8 5.0 355.9 2.7 297.4 3.8 117.2 4.8 32.7 -2.3 267.6 0.2

2508.3 3.3 84.3 3.9 2424.0 3.3 112.9 10.1 585.1 3.1 145.3 336.5 103.3 48.2 0.9 174.9 3.7 405.4 4.0 367.7 3.3 307.3 3.3 121.1 3.4 33.2 1.6 268.2 0.2

2565.6 2.3 84.8 0.7 2480.8 2.3 120.4 6.6 595.8 1.8 149.2 341.4 105.2 48.0 -0.4 182.4 4.3 417.8 3.1 375.1 2.0 315.6 2.7 122.8 1.4 33.5 0.8 269.4 0.4

2615.5 1.9 85.0 0.2 2530.5 2.0 128.0 6.3 601.6 1.0 150.9 343.5 107.3 46.8 -2.5 185.6 1.7 437.7 4.8 380.8 1.5 322.4 2.2 122.6 -0.1 33.8 0.9 271.1 0.6

2649.4 1.3 85.0 0.0 2564.4 1.3 135.3 5.7 601.3 -0.1 152.3 339.9 109.1 47.9 2.4 186.2 0.3 457.0 4.4 382.5 0.5 325.3 0.9 121.9 -0.6 33.4 -1.2 273.6 0.9

2679.0 1.1 85.4 0.5 2593.6 1.1 138.9 2.6 603.5 0.4 154.2 339.2 110.1 48.0 0.2 187.0 0.5 468.5 2.5 387.4 1.3 329.1 1.2 122.1 0.1 32.9 -1.5 276.3 1.0

5946.5 1.3 2999.8 1.9 6.4 14475.7 5880.9 8595.0

6021.1 1.3 3020.4 0.7 5.5 20285.4 7373.1 12912.0

6092.3 1.2 3033.4 0.4 5.0 21548.0 8365.0 13183.0

6167.6 1.2 3086.7 1.8 5.0 29384.5 14477.6 14907.0

6243.1 1.2 3149.5 2.0 5.0 34499.6 18137.1 16362.0

6315.9 1.2 3202.6 1.7 5.1 36540.1 18443.5 18097.0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5714.0 2.0 2858.9 1.8 9.6 7306.6 4153.2 3153.0

5796.7 1.4 2911.9 1.9 8.3 11424.2 5303.3 6121.0

5871.0 1.3 2943.0 1.1 7.2 17187.9 6269.7 10918.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – Fo r t L au d e r dale – P ompano B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

311.4 4.2 142.9 168.5

315.3 4.2 144.7 170.6

319.3 4.3 146.9 172.3

323.3 4.6 149.2 174.1

327.1 5.1 151.3 175.8

330.9 4.9 153.4 177.5

335 4.9 155.4 179.6

340.2 5.2 157.5 182.7

344.4 5.3 159.6 184.8

348.6 5.4 161.6 187

353.1 5.4 163.5 189.6

358.5 5.4 165.6 192.9

363.2 5.4 167.6 195.6

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

284.7 3.3

287.6 3.3

289.6 3

292 2.9

294 3.3

296.1 3

298.5 3.1

301.8 3.4

304.2 3.4

306.4 3.5

308.8 3.4

312 3.4

314.6 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

51.2 46.8

51.7 47.1

52.2 47.3

52.7 47.6

53.1 47.7

53.6 47.9

54.1 48.2

54.7 48.6

55.3 48.8

55.8 49

56.3 49.2

57 49.6

57.6 49.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

55.5 3.6

55.9 3.4

56.5 2.8

57 3

57.6 3.8

58.2 4.1

58.8 4.1

59.4 4.2

60 4.1

60.6 4

61.2 4

61.7 3.9

62.3 3.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2559.6 2.5

2573.7 2.1

2587.1 2

2601.2 2.3

2611.9 2

2619.5 1.8

2629.6 1.6

2637.1 1.4

2646.7 1.3

2653.8 1.3

2659.9 1.2

2667.6 1.2

2675 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

84.6 0.5

84.8 -0.1

84.6 -0.4

84.7 -0.7

84.9 0.4

85.2 0.5

85.1 0.6

84.9 0.3

84.9 -0.1

85 -0.3

85.1 0

85.3 0.4

85.3 0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2475 2.6

2488.8 2.2

2502.4 2.1

2516.5 2.4

2527 2.1

2534.2 1.8

2544.5 1.7

2552.2 1.4

2561.8 1.4

2568.8 1.4

2574.8 1.2

2582.4 1.2

2589.6 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

119.9 7.7

120.6 6.4

122.6 4.1

124.6 5.2

126.9 5.8

128.9 6.9

131.6 7.3

133.2 6.8

134.7 6.2

136.3 5.7

137.2 4.3

137.9 3.6

138.5 2.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

595.7 1.9

597.4 1.6

599.3 2.1

600.6 1.7

601.7 1

602 0.8

602.3 0.5

600.7 0

600.9 -0.1

601.4 -0.1

602.1 0

602.8 0.3

603.3 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

149.8 341.1 104.8

149.7 342.4 105.2

150 343.7 105.6

150.4 343.8 106.5

150.6 343.9 107.1

150.9 343.5 107.6

151.5 342.7 108.1

151.6 340.7 108.4

152.1 339.8 109

152.5 339.6 109.3

153 339.5 109.6

153.6 339.5 109.7

154 339.3 110

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

48.1 -0.1

48 -0.9

47.8 -1.3

48.2 0

47 -2.2

45.8 -4.6

46.2 -3.5

47.2 -1.9

48.1 2.3

48.1 5

48.1 4.3

48.1 1.8

48.1 -0.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

181.7 4.5

183.3 4.2

184.7 4.2

185.3 2.9

185.5 2.1

185.7 1.3

186 0.7

185.9 0.3

186 0.3

186.2 0.3

186.5 0.3

186.9 0.5

187.1 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

415.5 3.3

419.8 2.9

424.2 3.2

430.9 4.7

436 4.9

439.4 4.7

444.6 4.8

451.2 4.7

456.8 4.8

459.4 4.5

460.4 3.6

463.5 2.7

466.7 2.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

373.5 2

375.7 1.8

378.2 1.4

379.8 1.8

380.8 2

381.3 1.5

381.3 0.8

381.4 0.4

381.9 0.3

382.8 0.4

384.1 0.7

385.8 1.2

386.7 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

315.5 3.4

317.5 2.8

318.6 2.5

319.7 2.9

321.5 1.9

323.5 1.9

324.7 1.9

324.3 1.4

324.8 1

325.6 0.6

326.7 0.6

327.1 0.9

328.4 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

123 1.9

122.7 1

123 0.2

123 0.4

122.8 -0.1

122.5 -0.2

122.2 -0.6

122.1 -0.8

121.9 -0.7

121.9 -0.5

121.8 -0.3

122 -0.1

122 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 -0.1

33.8 1.2

33.8 1.5

33.8 2.1

33.9 1.6

33.8 0.2

33.7 -0.3

33.6 -0.8

33.4 -1.2

33.3 -1.5

33.2 -1.6

33.1 -1.5

33 -1.5

268.9 0.5

270.1 0.6

270.2 0.1

270.5 0.7

270.9 0.8

271.3 0.4

271.9 0.6

272.6 0.8

273.3 0.9

273.9 1

274.6 1

275.2 1

276 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6082.6 1.2

6101.2 1.2

6119.9 1.2

6139.1 1.2

6158.1 1.2

6177.1 1.2

6196 1.2

6214.8 1.2

6233.7 1.2

6252.6 1.2

6271.3 1.2

6289.3 1.2

6307 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3017.6 0

3027 0.3

3044.8 0.4

3061.5 0.6

3078.6 2

3095.8 2.3

3111 2.2

3126.9 2.1

3142 2.1

3156.9 2

3172.4 2

3185 1.9

3197.3 1.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.9

5.1

19564 7386 12178

22110 8672 13438

23940 10265 13675

25861 12056 13804

28845 13920 14925

30518 15342 15176

32315 16592 15722

33542 17590 15952

34126 18192 15933

34971 18471 16501

35359 18295 17064

35699 18183 17516

36212 18290 17921

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

N aples - M a r co I slan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.0 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $72,400, the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $55,800. The average annual wage is expected to grow at the highest rate of the MSAs studied at 4.0 percent. Population growth will average 2.7 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 17,384.57 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 160,967 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.4% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,668 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110 • Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix – 800

• Marriott – 700

• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

Employment growth is expected to average 2.4 percent each year, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.0 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 4.8 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 3.3 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Real Estate Market Facing ‘Headwinds,’ Sales Down

• Naples Area Board of Realtors’ (NABOR) second quarter market report showed double-digit decreases in pending and closed sales: pending sales fell 11% and closed sales fell 14%. • NABOR’s Mike Hughes mentions that this change in the market is from a lack of consumer confidence, limited international buyers this year, an uncertain stock market, the “Brexit” vote, and civil unrest from police-related shootings.

• However, Hughes emphasizes that, “Despite all these factors, it’s still been a solid year. I think that if buyers see their way through all these national and international worries that are out there, the reality is this area’s still paradise.” Source: Naples Herald, July 25, 2016

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Naples - Marco I slan d

Project Nikita Mystery Company is…Arthrex?

• Arthrex, a medical device manufacturing company, is expanding its operations into North Naples. It will create 560 jobs and $63 million in investment. According to Kristi Bartlett, vice president of economic development for the Greater Naples Chamber of Commerce, “The ripple effect of Arthrex’s physical expansion and the jobs created contributes greatly to our region’s growing economic strength.”

• Collier County Board of County Commissioners approved over $1 million in incentives for Arthrex. Arthrex is required to create 560 jobs with an average annual wage of $54,000 and average annual benefits of $17,000. • Arthrex has been in Naples since 1991. Furthermore, Arthrex was included in Top 100 Best Companies to Work For by Fortune Magazine and was No. 3 out of the 15 Best Workplaces in Manufacturing and Production in the country.

Source: Naples Herald, July 19, 2016 Toll Brothers offering special incentives on quickdelivery homes

• Toll Brothers, a luxury home builder, is offering special incentives to buyers interested in its three different Southwest Florida communities: Cordova at Spanish Wells, Palazzo at Naples, and Bonita Lakes. • “These homes are a great option for anyone who wishes to move into their new home with little or no waiting,” said Ken Thirtyacre, Toll Brothers West Florida Division President.

Source: Naples Daily, News, August 29, 2016 Judge Likely to Recommend Seventh Pot License, SWFL Region

• Administrative Law Judge John Van Laningham “has virtually guaranteed” that he will recommend the issuance of an additional marijuana license. • The Department of Health awarded five licenses in each different region of the state. These licenses

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

have massive earning potential, and after a legal dispute, another license was awarded in the Northeast region. This new license may bring the total to seven.

• Furthermore, a law that passed this year allows for the prescription of full-strength medical marijuana to terminally ill patients, making these licenses even more valuable. • A proposed amendment on the November ballot would exceptionally expand those eligible for the treatment. Source: Naples Daily News, August 09, 2016 Comcast Business expanding in Southwest Florida

• Comcast is beginning to offer fiber-optic cable services in Southwest Florida. This service will offer Ethernet speeds of up to 100 gigabits per second. It will be 600 times faster than Comcast’s current service. • This service is primarily geared towards companies that need extremely fast speeds: “[Companies] are doing a lot more things that require a larger bandwidth,” said Cindy Arco, a spokeswoman for Comcast’s Florida Region. Schools and hospitals may also use the fiber-optic system as a secondary network—in case of disasters.

• This connection will enhance cloud-based activities and allow employees to be more productive even when they are away from their desks. Source: Naples Daily News September 14, 2016

N aples - M a r co I slan d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Naples Payroll Employment

2.5

Naples Real Gross Metro Product 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.5

(Millions 2000 $)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Naples - Marco I slan d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

21.8 7.1 5.3 16.5 21.1 4.3 66.3 64.2 45.9 0.3

24.1 10.9 5.6 18.6 23.0 9.0 72.3 68.9 46.6 1.5

24.6 1.8 6.0 18.6 23.1 0.5 72.1 67.8 48.3 3.6

25.8 4.9 6.4 19.4 23.8 3.2 73.7 68.2 48.9 1.4

27.2 5.7 6.9 20.4 25.1 5.3 75.9 70.0 50.5 3.2

28.6 4.9 7.3 21.2 26.1 3.9 77.4 70.7 52.6 4.0

30.2 5.8 7.8 22.4 27.1 3.9 79.8 71.5 54.6 3.9

32.2 6.5 8.3 23.8 28.3 4.6 82.8 72.9 56.9 4.2

34.4 6.9 8.8 25.6 29.7 4.9 86.4 74.6 59.2 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 115.0 118.7 123.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.3 3.9 Manufacturing 2.5 2.7 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 8.0 13.7 Nonmanufacturing 112.5 116.0 120.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.1 3.6 Construction & Mining 9.0 9.4 10.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 4.5 11.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.2 22.8 23.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 2.6 5.1 Wholesale Trade 2.9 3.0 3.4 Retail Trade 17.9 18.4 19.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.4 1.4 1.4 Information 1.5 1.4 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.8 -2.2 4.0 Financial Activities 6.5 6.7 7.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 4.2 4.2 Prof & Business Services 12.1 13.3 13.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.4 9.8 1.7 Educ & Health Services 17.9 18.0 18.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 0.4 1.7 Leisure & Hospitality 22.6 23.6 24.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 4.3 3.7 Other Services 7.3 7.5 7.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 2.5 6.6 Federal Government 0.7 0.6 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.6 -7.3 -7.6 State & Local Government 12.7 12.7 12.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 -0.3 -1.8

129.9 5.4 3.3 7.9 126.6 5.3 12.1 15.5 25.3 5.9 3.7 20.1 1.5 1.5 -0.6 7.5 7.1 14.4 6.4 18.8 2.9 25.5 4.4 8.3 5.1 0.6 0.0 12.4 -0.5

135.1 4.0 3.4 3.6 131.7 4.1 13.5 11.9 26.1 3.0 3.7 20.8 1.7 1.5 0.6 8.0 6.8 15.1 4.5 19.6 4.2 26.4 3.6 8.3 -0.9 0.6 2.8 12.5 1.0

138.6 2.6 3.6 4.9 135.0 2.5 14.4 6.2 26.7 2.4 3.7 21.3 1.7 1.5 0.7 8.3 3.8 15.1 0.4 20.1 2.3 27.4 3.8 8.3 0.2 0.7 10.6 12.5 -0.3

142.8 3.0 3.6 1.4 139.1 3.0 15.1 5.2 27.4 2.5 3.8 21.8 1.8 1.5 -0.9 8.6 3.2 15.9 4.9 20.7 2.9 28.2 2.7 8.4 1.3 0.7 0.8 12.8 2.1

145.8 2.2 3.7 0.8 142.2 2.2 15.9 5.0 27.6 0.8 3.9 21.9 1.8 1.6 3.6 8.7 1.8 16.6 4.9 21.0 1.8 28.6 1.4 8.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 13.0 2.1

148.8 2.1 3.7 1.2 145.1 2.1 16.3 2.7 28.0 1.4 4.0 22.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 8.9 2.0 17.2 3.1 21.6 2.6 29.1 1.7 8.6 1.4 0.7 -0.2 13.3 2.2

349.5 2.6 160.4 3.0 6.0 3299.9 2421.5 878.0

358.6 2.6 162.1 1.0 5.2 3591.7 2895.5 696.0

368.8 2.8 162.9 0.5 4.8 4018.1 2865.7 1152.0

378.8 2.7 165.3 1.5 4.8 4876.2 2636.6 2240.0

388.6 2.6 168.4 1.9 5.0 5190.6 2647.7 2543.0

398.2 2.5 171.6 1.9 5.3 5493.6 2668.0 2826.0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

328.3 1.5 148.9 2.4 10.1 1216.7 927.6 289.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

333.5 1.6 152.8 2.7 8.5 1484.7 1283.0 202.0

340.8 2.2 155.7 1.9 7.1 2329.2 1731.8 597.0

N aples - M a r co I slan d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

28.3 4.5 7.2 21.1

28.8 4.9 7.4 21.4

29.2 5.4 7.5 21.7

29.6 5.8 7.6 21.9

30 6 7.8 22.2

30.4 5.7 7.9 22.5

30.9 5.7 8 22.8

31.4 6.2 8.1 23.3

31.9 6.4 8.3 23.7

32.4 6.6 8.4 24

32.9 6.7 8.5 24.4

33.5 6.7 8.6 24.9

34.1 6.9 8.8 25.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

25.9 3.6

26.2 4.1

26.5 4.1

26.7 4.1

27 4.2

27.2 3.7

27.5 3.8

27.9 4.4

28.2 4.5

28.5 4.7

28.8 4.8

29.2 4.7

29.6 4.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

77 70.4

77.7 70.9

78.4 71.1

78.9 71.2

79.5 71.4

80 71.6

80.7 71.9

81.6 72.4

82.4 72.8

83.1 73.1

84 73.4

85 74

85.9 74.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.2 3.9

52.8 4.3

53.3 3.5

53.8 3.4

54.3 4.2

54.9 4

55.4 4

56 4.2

56.6 4.2

57.2 4.1

57.7 4.1

58.3 4

58.9 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

138.3 2.6

139.4 2.7

140.5 3.3

141.5 3.9

142.4 3

143.2 2.7

144 2.5

144.6 2.2

145.5 2.2

146.3 2.2

147 2.1

147.7 2.2

148.5 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 6.1

3.6 4

3.6 3.3

3.6 1.6

3.6 1.2

3.6 1.3

3.6 0.8

3.7 0.5

3.7 0.8

3.7 1

3.7 1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

134.7 2.5

135.9 2.6

136.9 3.3

137.9 4

138.8 3

139.5 2.7

140.3 2.5

140.9 2.2

141.8 2.2

142.6 2.2

143.3 2.1

144 2.2

144.8 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.2 6.1

14.4 6.2

14.6 5.4

14.8 4.5

15 5.4

15.2 5.5

15.4 5.3

15.6 5.1

15.8 5.1

16 5.2

16.1 4.4

16.2 4

16.3 3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 3

27 2.5

27.1 3.4

27.3 4.8

27.4 2.2

27.4 1.8

27.5 1.4

27.5 0.8

27.5 0.6

27.6 0.7

27.7 0.9

27.8 1.3

27.9 1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.7 21.4 1.7

3.7 21.5 1.7

3.7 21.7 1.8

3.8 21.8 1.8

3.8 21.9 1.8

3.8 21.8 1.8

3.9 21.8 1.8

3.9 21.9 1.8

3.9 22 1.9

4 22.1 1.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 0.1

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.4

1.5 2.4

1.5 -0.6

1.5 -3.1

1.5 -2.2

1.5 -0.6

1.6 3.6

1.6 6.3

1.6 5.4

1.6 3

1.6 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 3.9

8.4 4.2

8.5 4.5

8.5 4.3

8.6 3.5

8.6 2.7

8.7 2.2

8.7 1.8

8.8 1.7

8.9 2.2

8.9 2

15 -1.6

15.2 -0.7

15.3 2.4

15.6 3.7

15.8 5.2

15.9 5.1

16.1 5.3

16.4 5.3

16.6 5.3

16.7 5

16.8 4.1

16.9 3.3

17.1 2.7

20 2.1

20.2 2.7

20.4 3.4

20.5 4

20.6 3.1

20.7 2.6

20.8 1.9

20.9 1.7

21 1.5

21.1 1.7

21.2 2.2

21.4 2.6

21.5 2.6

27.4 4.8

27.7 4.1

27.8 3.2

27.9 4.1

28.1 2.3

28.3 2.2

28.4 2.3

28.4 1.8

28.5 1.5

28.6 1.2

28.8 1.2

28.8 1.5

29 1.7

8.3 0.1

8.3 0.7

8.4 1.9

8.4 2.2

8.4 1.3

8.4 1.2

8.4 0.6

8.4 0.5

8.5 0.8

8.5 1

8.5 1.3

8.6 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 11.2

0.7 12.2

0.7 3.1

0.7 -1.5

0.7 2.7

0.7 1.4

0.7 0.9

0.7 0.5

0.7 0.1

0.7 -0.2

0.7 -0.3

0.7 -4.1

0.7 -1.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.5 -1

12.6 0.1

12.6 2.6

12.7 3.1

12.7 2

12.8 1.6

12.8 1.8

12.9 2

13 2.1

13.1 2.2

13.2 2.1

13.3 2.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

367.6 2.9

370.1 2.9

372.6 2.8

375 2.8

377.5 2.7

380.1 2.7

382.6 2.7

385 2.7

387.4 2.6

389.9 2.6

392.3 2.5

394.6 2.5

397 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

162.6 0.1

162.6 0.6

163.4 0.8

164.1 0.7

164.9 1.4

165.7 1.9

166.5 1.9

167.2 1.9

168 1.9

168.7 1.8

169.6 1.9

170.3 1.9

171.1 1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.3

3968 2847 1121

4008 2610 1398

4155 2628 1527

4482 2624 1858

4860 2625 2235

5039 2639 2401

5124 2658 2466

5159 2677 2482

5076 2636 2439

5216 2656 2560

5311 2621 2690

5379 2612 2767

5458 2643 2815

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ocala

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.0 percent annually, the second highest—tied with Naples—of the twelve studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is one of the lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $33,200. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at $44,000. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.1 percent. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.5 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,850.61 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.0 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 5.8 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with 3.3 percent average annual growth. The Federal Government sector and Information sector are expected to experience average annual growth rates of 0.3 and 0.5 percent, respectively. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 131,803 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.1% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,079 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,020 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 994 • Lockheed Martin Employees – 981 Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Ribbon cutting Thursday for FedEx Ground hub • On Thursday, August 4th, a ribbon-cutting ceremony celebrated the opening of the FedEx ground hub in Ocala. The 400,000-square-foot facility is positioned north of U.S. 27 and east of Interstate 75. • The facility is one of the largest in the nation and will process 15,000 packages an hour. This number is expected to increase to 45,000 an hour. • The facility will immediately hire 350 new employees; however, Nicole Stout—a FedEx field human resources generalist—mentioned that employment will likely reach 1,000 in “the long haul.” Source: Ocala Star Banner, July 28, 2016

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

O cala

Superintendent proposes teacher raises

• The new spending plan, proposed by Superintendent of Schools George Tomyn, increases the operation spending by $26.3 million or 8.1%. Most of this funding will go towards replacing old technology and for the rising costs in utilities, transportation, and healthcare. However, $10 million is to fund pay increases for employees. • The tentative operational budget is a $10 million dollar increase from 2014-2015, and the district is adding $16.3 million of funds from its $38.7 million reserve balance, which is extra money carried over from 2015-2016.

• Furthermore, the district believes that revenue from the mill school tax will rise by $4 million in 201617. This revenue will now amount to $19.9 million and will go towards adding vocational programs, expanding music and art programs. Source: Ocala Star Banner, July 21, 2016 Army Corps of Engineers Oks permits for Sabal Trail in Florida • The Sabal trail project is a $3.2 billion, 516-mile, three-foot-wide pipeline that will carry up to one billion cubic feet of natural gas each day from Alabama to the connector pipeline in Osceola county.

• The brothers hope to open the operation by January of 2017, and it would be the first distillery in Ocala city limits. • Officials with the American Craft Spirits Association say, “Craft distillers can make about 220,000, 1.75 milliliter bottles in one year.” Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 22, 2016 Hispanic-owned businesses shape county, reflect rising population

• According to the US census, Marion county has a Hispanic population of 12.2%, and 3.3 million business have a Hispanic owner—a 46.3% increase since 2007.

• The number of Hispanic-owned businesses should continue to grow as the Hispanic population, which was reported as 17.6% of the US population in 2015, grows. • Many Hispanic business owners rely on their heritage to allow them to access the Latino sections of otherwise over-saturated markets. Source: Ocala Star Banner, September 16, 2016

• The pipeline will travel through rural areas and have smaller pipeline projects attached as well, including a pipeline that will supply natural gas to a Duke Energy plant in Citrus County. • The 500-mile pipeline is divided into five different segments, and construction on each segment is scheduled to begin immediately. Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 12, 2016 Brothers plan to produce spirits inside city limits

• Two brothers, Ocala-natives Paul L. James and Timothy James, have met with the Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership (CEP) and received the go-ahead on opening their own distillery.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ocala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

8500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0

6500.0 6000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0

1.4

7000.0

105.0

80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

5500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

7500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Ocala Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income

O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

10.5 5.0 3.4 7.2 10.2 2.2 31.6 30.7 37.2 1.9

10.6 0.7 3.5 7.1 10.1 -1.0 31.7 30.2 37.7 1.5

10.6 0.1 3.6 7.0 10.0 -1.3 31.5 29.7 38.3 1.4

11.0 4.2 3.7 7.3 10.2 2.5 32.5 30.1 38.8 1.3

11.6 4.9 3.9 7.7 10.7 4.5 33.7 31.1 39.8 2.7

12.2 5.0 4.1 8.0 11.1 4.0 35.0 31.9 41.4 4.0

12.9 5.9 4.4 8.5 11.6 4.0 36.5 32.7 43.1 4.1

13.7 6.3 4.7 9.0 12.1 4.4 38.1 33.6 44.9 4.3

14.6 6.6 5.0 9.6 12.6 4.6 40.0 34.6 46.8 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 89.7 91.0 92.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 1.4 2.0 Manufacturing 6.4 6.7 6.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 4.5 3.0 Nonmanufacturing 83.3 84.2 85.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 1.1 2.0 Construction & Mining 5.7 5.4 5.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.8 -5.9 8.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 20.3 20.9 21.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 3.3 2.7 Wholesale Trade 3.3 3.4 3.4 Retail Trade 14.7 14.9 15.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.7 3.0 Information 1.0 0.9 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 -10.0 -6.5 Financial Activities 4.2 4.2 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 -0.2 -0.2 Prof & Business Services 7.9 8.6 9.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 8.2 5.7 Educ & Health Services 13.8 14.3 14.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.0 0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 10.1 10.3 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 2.2 2.7 Other Services 3.1 2.8 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.1 -11.6 3.0 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.3 0.0 0.0 State & Local Government 16.4 16.2 15.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 -1.4 -1.5

95.6 3.0 7.2 4.5 88.3 2.9 6.2 7.7 22.1 2.8 3.2 15.7 3.2 0.8 -4.8 4.1 -2.1 9.5 5.1 16.8 17.1 11.1 4.7 3.0 5.6 0.7 0.1 13.9 -12.8

97.5 2.0 7.6 4.5 89.9 1.8 6.4 2.8 22.5 2.0 3.3 16.0 3.2 0.8 -0.2 4.1 0.9 9.3 -2.1 17.6 4.8 11.8 5.7 3.0 -0.4 0.7 -0.1 13.6 -2.1

99.7 2.2 7.9 4.2 91.8 2.1 6.5 1.1 22.7 0.8 3.2 16.0 3.5 0.8 0.5 4.3 3.2 9.3 -0.7 18.4 4.3 12.1 3.1 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.8 14.0 2.6

102.1 2.5 8.0 1.1 94.1 2.6 6.9 6.2 23.0 1.4 3.2 16.2 3.6 0.8 -1.7 4.4 2.6 9.8 5.4 18.8 2.3 12.4 2.6 3.1 -0.1 0.7 1.5 14.3 2.2

103.8 1.6 8.0 0.3 95.8 1.8 7.2 5.1 23.1 0.3 3.3 16.2 3.6 0.8 2.8 4.4 1.2 10.3 5.2 19.1 1.5 12.6 1.3 3.1 0.1 0.7 -0.5 14.5 1.5

105.5 1.7 8.0 0.7 97.5 1.8 7.4 2.7 23.3 0.9 3.3 16.2 3.7 0.8 0.6 4.5 1.4 10.6 3.3 19.5 2.3 12.8 1.6 3.1 0.8 0.7 -0.6 14.7 1.6

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

339.4 1.0 131.9 0.8 7.3 742.1 705.2 37.0

343.7 1.3 131.1 -0.6 6.4 1099.7 1099.2 1.0

348.1 1.3 131.2 0.0 5.6 1407.0 1399.0 8.0

353.3 1.5 132.9 1.3 5.6 2466.9 2357.2 110.0

359.0 1.6 135.0 1.5 5.8 3112.5 2891.4 221.0

365.0 1.6 137.0 1.5 6.1 3225.3 2972.7 253.0

332.6 0.3 131.0 -1.0 12.3 361.4 358.6 3.0

334.3 0.5 130.5 -0.4 10.3 407.3 405.9 1.0

336.2 0.6 130.9 0.3 8.6 594.5 582.0 12.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ocala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

12.1 4.7 4.1 8

12.3 5.1 4.2 8.1

12.4 5.5 4.3 8.2

12.6 5.9 4.3 8.3

12.8 6.1 4.4 8.4

13 5.8 4.5 8.5

13.2 5.7 4.5 8.6

13.4 6.2 4.6 8.8

13.6 6.3 4.7 8.9

13.8 6.4 4.7 9.1

14 6.5 4.8 9.2

14.3 6.5 4.9 9.4

14.5 6.6 4.9 9.6

11 3.8

11.2 4.2

11.3 4.2

11.4 4.2

11.5 4.3

11.6 3.8

11.7 3.9

11.9 4.3

12 4.4

12.1 4.5

12.3 4.5

12.4 4.5

12.6 4.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

34.7 31.7

35.2 32.1

35.6 32.3

35.9 32.4

36.3 32.6

36.6 32.8

37 33

37.5 33.3

37.9 33.5

38.3 33.7

38.8 33.9

39.3 34.2

39.8 34.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.1 3.9

41.6 4.2

42 3.6

42.4 3.7

42.8 4.3

43.3 4.2

43.7 4.2

44.2 4.4

44.7 4.3

45.1 4.3

45.6 4.2

46 4.1

46.5 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

99.4 2.5

100.2 2.4

100.8 2.8

101.4 3.1

101.9 2.5

102.4 2.2

102.8 2

103.1 1.7

103.6 1.6

104 1.6

104.4 1.6

104.9 1.7

105.3 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 5.5

7.9 3.5

7.9 2.4

7.9 1.9

8 0.7

8 0.8

8 0.7

8 0.2

8 0

8 0.3

8 0.5

8 0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

91.5 2.3

92.2 2.4

92.9 2.8

93.4 3.2

94 2.6

94.4 2.3

94.8 2.1

95.1 1.8

95.6 1.7

96 1.8

96.4 1.7

96.8 1.8

97.3 1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 -0.3

6.5 1

6.6 3.1

6.7 5.5

6.8 6.6

6.9 6.6

7 6.1

7.1 5.6

7.2 5.3

7.3 5.1

7.3 4.3

7.4 3.8

7.4 3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.6 0.9

22.7 0.5

22.9 1.4

22.9 1.7

23 1.6

23 1.3

23.1 0.9

23 0.4

23 0.2

23.1 0.2

23.1 0.4

23.2 0.8

23.3 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 16 3.5

3.2 16.1 3.5

3.2 16.2 3.5

3.2 16.2 3.6

3.3 16.2 3.6

3.3 16.1 3.6

3.3 16.2 3.6

3.3 16.2 3.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 0

0.8 2.9

0.8 -0.6

0.8 1.2

0.8 -1.3

0.8 -3.9

0.8 -2.9

0.8 -1.4

0.8 2.7

0.8 5.4

0.8 4.6

0.8 2.1

0.8 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 3.5

4.3 3.3

4.4 4.1

4.4 4

4.4 2.9

4.4 2.1

4.4 1.6

4.4 1.2

4.5 1.1

4.5 1.2

4.5 1.6

4.5 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 -1.2

9.3 -1.4

9.4 1.1

9.6 4.9

9.7 5.6

9.8 5.5

10 5.6

10.1 5.6

10.3 5.6

10.3 5.3

10.4 4.4

10.5 3.5

10.6 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.3 6

18.4 5.7

18.6 4.6

18.7 2.5

18.8 2.8

18.8 2.2

18.9 1.6

18.9 1.3

19 1.2

19.1 1.4

19.2 1.9

19.4 2.3

19.5 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 3.9

12.2 3.7

12.3 3

12.3 3.7

12.4 2.3

12.5 2.2

12.5 1.7

12.6 1.4

12.6 1.1

12.7 1.1

12.7 1.4

12.8 1.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3 1.3

3 0.9

3.1 -0.6

3.1 -1.6

3.1 0.8

3.1 0.6

3.1 0

3.1 -0.1

3.1 0

3.1 0.2

3.1 0.4

3.1 0.7

3.1 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.2

0.7 1.5

0.7 2.1

0.7 2.6

0.7 2.2

0.7 0.9

0.7 0.4

0.7 0

0.7 -0.4

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.8

0.7 -3.6

0.7 -1.6

14.1 2

14.2 3.3

14.2 4.2

14.2 5.5

14.3 1.4

14.3 1

14.3 1.2

14.4 1.4

14.5 1.5

14.5 1.6

14.6 1.6

14.7 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

347.4 1.2

348.6 1.3

349.9 1.4

351.2 1.4

352.6 1.5

354 1.5

355.4 1.6

356.8 1.6

358.3 1.6

359.8 1.6

361.2 1.6

362.7 1.7

364.2 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

131.1 0

131.1 0.5

131.6 0.4

132.1 0.9

132.7 1.2

133.2 1.6

133.7 1.6

134.2 1.6

134.7 1.6

135.2 1.5

135.8 1.5

136.2 1.5

136.7 1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.1

1275 1275 0

1521 1512 9

1738 1716 23

2028 1982 46

2367 2280 87

2606 2477 129

2867 2691 176

3009 2812 197

3112 2897 215

3165 2936 230

3164 2921 243

3164 2914 249

3196 2945 251

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

O r lan d o – K issimmee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.3 percent annually, the highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $37,500. Average annual wage growth will be 3.9 percent, the second lowest—tied with Jacksonville—of the areas studied. The average annual wage will be at a level of $52,300. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 2.2 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 128,353.55 million dollars, the third highest of the studied MSAs.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,266,579 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 4.6% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 58,656 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 69,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 22,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 17,300 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 11,078 • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,786 • Orange County Government – 7,553 • Darden Restaurants Inc. – 7,600 • Osceola County Public Schools – 6,560 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 5,774

Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission

Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.9 percent annually, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.4 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 7.7 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.5 percent, and the Education and Health Services sector at 3.0 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Tech firm Thales confirms Orlando expansion, hundreds of new jobs to come

• At the Farnborough International Airshow in Hampshire, England, it was announced that Thales USA Inc. will be expanding in Brevard and Orange counties.

• The company is slated to create 173 jobs in Orlando, paying an average wage of $53,255 annually. There will also be 327 jobs created in Brevard County. • Thales has invested around $20 million in Florida for this expansion, which focuses on their segment for “services that help enrich travel,” like in-flight entertainment and connectivity systems. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 11, 2016 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r lan do – K issimmee

New shops, apartments coming to Oviedo in $36M project

• On August 4th, Allegiant Air broke ground for their 45,000-square-foot flight simulation center in Sanford, which has been supported financially by Sanford, Seminole County, and the state.

• This venture will provide 11 new job opportunities with an average annual salary of $100,000. • Since the center will train up to 750 people annually, there could be development in the hotel and restaurant industries in the area. • Allegiant’s center is projected to have a total economic impact of $16 million a year. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 29, 2016 $26.1 million health facility in the works for Lake County

• In an effort to cater to Central Florida’s “desperate need for more nursing homes,” Florida Hospital Waterman has begun construction on Fountain Inn Nursing and Rehabilitation Center Inc. • Fountain Inn will be a 78,000-square-foot facility with 120 beds, employing 75 people.

• The $26.1 million project is just one of the nursing homes planned following the state’s 2015 decision to lift its 14-year ban on new nursing home construction. The region’s nursing home construction is projected to generate $115.7 million. Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 15, 2016 Old Town lines up new attractions, events for big milestone

• Old Town, a “major attraction” in Kissimmee, has been undergoing a $12 million renovation to update its offerings as it prepares for its 30-year anniversary in December. • The destination is planning on opening new attractions and hosting more events to “help keep [the] attraction fresh for tourists and encourage repeat visitation.”

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

• Some examples include the addition of a new 85foot Ferris wheel, opening in late September, and Zombie Tag, which will be part of Old Town’s Halloween festivities. Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 29, 2016 UCF OKs $90M student housing for downtown campus

• On September 15, the University of Central Florida’s board of trustees approved a “memorandum of understanding” for the development of student housing near the downtown campus. • Phase one of this $90-million project includes a facility housing 600 beds and an attached 600-space parking garage. The ground floor will provide 10,000 square feet of retail and commercial space.

• The project will also include the incorporation of 50,000 square feet for Valencia College to use for its culinary and hospitality programs. Source: Orlando Business Journal, September 15, 2016

O r lan d o â€“ K issimmee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

140000.0

8.0%

110000.0

6.0%

100000.0

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0

4.0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

80000.0 70000.0

(Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0%

1200.0

6.0%

1100.0

3.0% 0.0%

1000.0

-3.0%

900.0 800.0

1.4

130000.0 120000.0

1300.0

1.2

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

-6.0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 OrlandoPayroll Employment

-9.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r lan do â€“ K issimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

76.9 5.7 43.7 33.2 74.5 2.9 35.2 34.1 43.3 2.0

79.4 3.2 46.1 33.3 75.6 1.4 35.6 33.9 44.5 2.8

81.4 2.5 48.1 33.3 76.5 1.1 35.7 33.5 44.9 0.9

86.1 5.9 51.4 34.7 79.7 4.2 36.9 34.1 46.2 2.7

91.6 6.4 55.2 36.4 84.5 6.0 38.3 35.3 47.6 3.1

97.6 6.5 59.7 37.9 89.1 5.4 39.8 36.3 49.3 3.7

103.7 6.3 63.9 39.8 93.1 4.5 41.3 37.1 51.3 3.9

110.3 6.3 68.0 42.3 97.1 4.4 43.0 37.9 53.4 4.1

117.0 6.1 71.9 45.1 101.1 4.1 44.8 38.7 55.4 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1005.3 1031.8 1065.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 2.6 3.3 Manufacturing 38.0 38.0 38.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -0.1 0.5 Nonmanufacturing 967.3 993.8 1027.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.7 3.4 Construction & Mining 45.2 46.2 51.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2 2.2 10.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 191.9 198.1 204.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 3.2 3.2 Wholesale Trade 38.4 39.0 40.1 Retail Trade 123.3 128.1 133.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 30.2 30.9 31.3 Information 24.0 23.6 23.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 -1.7 -0.2 Financial Activities 65.8 67.2 69.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 2.1 3.7 Prof & Business Services 161.8 169.3 175.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 4.6 3.8 Educ & Health Services 123.5 128.1 131.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 3.8 2.6 Leisure & Hospitality 203.4 210.2 218.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 3.3 4.0 Other Services 36.5 34.8 36.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2 -4.7 3.3 Federal Government 12.0 12.3 12.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.1 2.7 0.6 State & Local Government 103.1 104.0 104.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 0.9 0.6

1109.5 4.1 39.6 3.7 1069.9 4.1 55.9 9.3 212.8 4.1 41.9 138.6 32.3 23.9 1.3 71.0 1.9 183.5 4.5 135.8 3.3 231.0 5.7 38.0 5.6 12.6 1.6 105.3 0.7

1156.0 4.2 41.2 4.1 1114.8 4.2 60.6 8.4 220.6 3.6 43.6 142.6 34.4 24.1 0.8 72.2 1.7 194.7 6.1 142.8 5.2 239.8 3.8 40.6 6.8 13.0 3.1 106.5 1.1

1205.2 4.2 43.9 6.5 1161.2 4.2 69.2 14.1 227.5 3.1 44.4 147.4 35.7 23.6 -1.7 72.9 1.0 201.9 3.7 150.2 5.2 251.8 5.0 42.1 3.7 14.0 7.9 108.1 1.5

1241.2 3.0 44.5 1.3 1196.7 3.1 74.4 7.5 231.7 1.8 45.3 149.8 36.5 23.3 -1.4 74.7 2.4 212.8 5.4 155.0 3.2 258.5 2.7 42.5 1.0 14.3 2.4 109.7 1.5

1268.9 2.2 44.7 0.4 1224.2 2.3 78.9 6.1 232.9 0.5 46.2 149.5 37.2 24.1 3.5 75.3 0.9 224.2 5.4 157.3 1.5 262.9 1.7 42.6 0.3 14.3 -0.4 111.6 1.7

1293.4 1.9 45.1 0.9 1248.3 2.0 81.5 3.3 235.1 0.9 47.2 150.2 37.7 24.4 1.2 76.1 1.0 231.9 3.5 160.7 2.2 267.9 1.9 43.0 0.9 14.2 -0.7 113.5 1.7

2334.7 2.4 1206.5 2.2 6.0 14770.4 10000.8 4770.0

2394.5 2.6 1223.4 1.4 5.0 19638.7 12733.5 6905.0

2453.2 2.5 1253.7 2.5 4.4 21637.9 14560.7 7077.0

2509.1 2.3 1282.9 2.3 4.4 22631.4 15240.3 7391.0

2562.1 2.1 1310.3 2.1 4.4 22928.2 15420.8 7507.0

2611.9 1.9 1332.2 1.7 4.5 23698.2 15408.1 8290.0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2183.4 1.8 1146.8 0.8 10.0 5763.0 4512.1 1251.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

2232.0 2.2 1163.3 1.4 8.4 10917.9 7239.3 3679.0

2279.7 2.1 1180.3 1.5 7.0 14816.5 9064.4 5752.0

O r lan d o â€“ K issimmee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

96.6 6.3 59.2 37.5

98.4 6.5 60.2 38.2

99.9 6.3 61.3 38.6

101.5 6.4 62.4 39.1

103 6.6 63.4 39.6

104.5 6.2 64.4 40.1

106 6.2 65.4 40.6

107.9 6.3 66.5 41.4

109.5 6.3 67.5 42

111 6.3 68.5 42.5

112.6 6.2 69.4 43.2

114.5 6.1 70.4 44.1

116.1 6.1 71.4 44.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

88.4 5.4

89.7 5.6

90.6 4.9

91.7 4.7

92.6 4.8

93.5 4.2

94.5 4.3

95.7 4.4

96.7 4.4

97.6 4.4

98.5 4.3

99.6 4.1

100.6 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

39.5 36.1

40 36.5

40.4 36.6

40.8 36.8

41.2 37

41.5 37.2

41.9 37.4

42.4 37.6

42.8 37.8

43.2 38

43.6 38.2

44.1 38.4

44.6 38.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49 3.7

49.5 3.9

50 3.2

50.5 3.5

51 4.1

51.6 4.1

52.1 4.1

52.6 4.1

53.1 4.1

53.6 4

54.1 4

54.6 3.8

55.1 3.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1201.8 4.5

1210.9 4.1

1219.9 3.8

1229.6 3.5

1238 3

1244.9 2.8

1252.4 2.7

1258.8 2.4

1266.3 2.3

1272.4 2.2

1278 2

1284.1 2

1290.2 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

44.1 7.8

44.2 6.9

44.2 4.4

44.2 2.2

44.4 0.8

44.6 1

44.6 0.8

44.6 0.4

44.7 0.2

44.8 0.4

45 0.8

45 1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1157.8 4.4

1166.7 4

1175.8 3.8

1185.4 3.6

1193.5 3.1

1200.3 2.9

1207.8 2.7

1214.2 2.4

1221.6 2.4

1227.7 2.3

1233.1 2.1

1239.2 2.1

1245.2 1.9

69.4 15.9

69.9 13.9

71.2 12.9

72.4 9.4

73.7 6.3

75 7.3

76.3 7.2

77.4 6.9

78.4 6.4

79.5 6

80.2 5.2

80.7 4.3

81.2 3.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

227.2 3.3

228.4 2.7

229.7 3.1

230.7 2.6

231.5 1.9

232 1.6

232.5 1.2

232.2 0.7

232.6 0.5

233.1 0.5

233.7 0.5

234.3 0.9

234.9 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

44.4 147.2 35.5

44.5 148.1 35.7

44.7 149.1 35.9

45 149.4 36.2

45.2 149.8 36.5

45.4 150 36.7

45.7 149.9 36.9

45.9 149.4 37

46.1 149.3 37.2

46.3 149.5 37.3

46.6 149.7 37.4

46.9 150 37.5

47.1 150.1 37.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 -2.5

23.7 -1.4

23.6 -0.6

23.9 1

23.4 -1

22.9 -3.4

23.1 -2.3

23.7 -0.8

24.2 3.4

24.3 6.2

24.3 5.4

24.4 2.8

24.4 0.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

72.5 0.1

73.2 0.6

73.9 3

74.3 3.1

74.6 2.9

74.8 2

75 1.4

75.1 1

75.2 0.9

75.4 0.9

75.6 0.9

75.9 1.1

76 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

200.1 3.6

202.4 2.9

204.9 2.2

208.7 4.3

211.7 5.8

213.9 5.7

216.8 5.8

220.5 5.7

223.8 5.7

225.6 5.5

226.7 4.6

228.7 3.7

230.8 3.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

150.2 5.6

151.4 5.2

152.8 5.8

153.9 5.2

154.8 3.1

155.4 2.6

155.8 1.9

156.3 1.5

156.8 1.3

157.6 1.4

158.5 1.8

159.6 2.1

160.3 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

251 5.5

253 5.2

254.2 4.1

255.5 2.6

257.5 2.6

259.6 2.6

261.2 2.8

261.3 2.3

262.2 1.8

263.4 1.4

264.7 1.4

265.6 1.7

267.1 1.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

42.2 5

42.2 3.3

42.4 1.3

42.5 2.4

42.5 0.8

42.5 0.7

42.5 0.3

42.5 0.2

42.6 0.2

42.7 0.4

42.7 0.6

42.9 0.8

43 0.9

14 9.6

14.2 8.5

14.3 7.1

14.3 5.1

14.3 2.6

14.4 1.2

14.4 0.6

14.3 0.2

14.3 -0.3

14.3 -0.6

14.3 -0.7

14.2 -0.7

107.7 1.3

108.4 1.8

108.7 1.8

109.1 1.5

109.5 1.7

109.9 1.4

110.4 1.5

110.9 1.6

111.4 1.7

111.9 1.7

112.3 1.7

112.8 1.7

113.3 1.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2446.2 2.5

2460.4 2.4

2474.6 2.4

2488.8 2.4

2502.5 2.3

2516 2.3

2529.2 2.2

2542.7 2.2

2555.9 2.1

2568.7 2.1

2581.2 2.1

2593.7 2

2606 2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1250.1 2.2

1255.3 2.7

1264.2 2.5

1271.8 2.1

1279.4 2.3

1286.9 2.5

1293.4 2.3

1300.6 2.3

1307.3 2.2

1313.6 2.1

1319.9 2

1324.8 1.9

1330 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.3

4.4

4.5

21080 14569 6511

21352 14422 6930

21802 14600 7202

22139 14931 7207

22859 15298 7561

22699 15314 7385

22829 15418 7411

22901 15532 7369

22810 15522 7288

22983 15446 7537

23020 15184 7836

23213 15122 8091

23490 15260 8230

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Palm Bay – M elbou r ne – Titusville

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.1 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $38,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $53,900. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 19,318.04 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 259,007 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.4% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 13,920 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Brevard County School Board – 9,520

Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.3 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.1 percent.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.3 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 2.7 percent, followed by the Manufacturing sector at 1.9 percent. The Information sector and the Other Services sector will experience declines with average annual growth rates of -2.2 and -0.1 percent, respectively.

• Health First, Inc. – 7,800

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Brevard County Government – 2,380

A bubble? Housing prices shoot up

• Harris Corporation – 5,890

• Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067

• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council

• Homes in Brevard County are selling for a median price of $196,000 as of July’s data. This represents a 3 percent hike since June and a 22 percent spike since July of 2015.

• When asked about a possible housing bubble, Cyndi Jones of National Realty of Brevard Inc. said, “It’s a small bubble, but it’s not an unrealistic bubble.” • Jones attributes much of the price jump to an influx of engineers and managers being transferred to Northrop Grumman Corporation’s Orlando location.

• The shortage of homes for sale has led to a decrease in closed sales to 889 in July, which is 6.5 percent less than there were a year ago. Source: Florida Today, August 27, 2016

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Incentives approved for two Titusville development projects • Two businesses with plans to open up shop in Titusville have been approved for economic incentive grants by the North Brevard Economic Development Zone board. The grants total $199,000 and will not be distributed until the business expansions have been completed.

• $110,000 will be awarded to an as-yet-unnamed fabrication and distribution facility on Washington Avenue. The other $89,000 will be awarded to the Kutryb Eye Institute, which will open an ophthalmology practice on Washington Avenue. • The fabrication facility, which is being referred to as “Project North,” will make a capital investment of $2.6 million and add 20-25 jobs within 6-12 months of opening. Kutryb will make a capital investment of $2.45 million and add 23 jobs.

Source: Florida Today, September 15, 2016 Aerospace firm plans to move into Port Canaveral’s Titusville complex

• An aerospace company, referred to as “Project Signal” to ensure confidentiality, will be the first company to move into Titusville Logistics Center in Port Canaveral.

• The North Brevard Economic Development Zone board approved financial incentives for Project Signal, some of which will be performance-based. The more jobs the company creates, the higher the payout will be.

• The firm will generate a minimum of eight jobs, although it is pursuing state financial incentives that would require the creation of ten jobs. These jobs will pay an average of $50,261 per year. • The company will make a capital investment of $2.4 million, and the grants offered by the board include a performance-based grant for job creation and a capital investment grant that will offset 70% of the firm’s property taxes for the first five years.

$551M beach funding project OK’d by County Commission

• Satellite Beach and Indian Harbour Beach are the subjects of a $551 million beach protection plan approved by the Brevard County Commission. The motion passed 4-1, with Commissioner Trudie Infantini voting against the plan, saying that the money should instead be directed towards cleaning up the Indian River Lagoon. • The money will come from a number of sources: $272.19 million from the federal government, $112.88 million from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, and $165.83 million from Brevard County’s tax on hotel rooms and other short-term rentals.

• Many have advocated using the money to fix the lagoon, but County Commission Vice Chair Curt Smith argues that “this isn’t an either/or,” and that the commission is still committed to cleaning up the lagoon. Source: Florida Today, July 13, 2016 Florida Beer Co. sold to Caribbean conglomerate

• Cape Canaveral’s Florida Beer Co. has been acquired by ANSA McAL U.S., which will likely look to expand the company. Florida Beer currently produces 28 styles of ale, lager, and cider, and operates a tap room. • The value of the deal was not made public, but Florida Beer Co. marketing director Eulan Middlbrooks has stated that the same employees will run the facility, although they will begin brewing the Trinidad and Tobago-based company’s brands. • Florida Beer Co. produces 45,000 barrels of beer every year, but Middlebrooks claims that production will soon reach 100,000 barrels.

Source: Florida Today, July 29, 2016

Source: Florida Today, September 9, 2016

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Palm Bay â€“ M elbou r ne â€“ Titusville Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1.5

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 200.0 195.0 190.0 185.0

(Thousands)

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(Millions 2000 $)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Palm Bay Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

-6.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20.7 4.4 9.3 11.4 20.1 1.7 38.0 36.8 47.5 1.0

20.7 0.0 9.3 11.4 19.7 -1.7 37.8 36.0 47.6 0.1

20.9 1.0 9.4 11.5 19.7 -0.3 37.9 35.6 48.0 1.0

21.6 3.5 9.6 12.1 20.0 1.9 38.7 35.8 47.8 -0.4

22.7 4.8 10.0 12.7 20.9 4.5 39.9 36.8 49.0 2.5

23.6 3.9 10.5 13.1 21.5 2.9 40.8 37.3 50.7 3.4

24.8 5.2 11.1 13.7 22.2 3.3 42.4 38.0 52.7 4.0

26.1 5.5 11.7 14.4 23.0 3.6 44.2 38.9 55.0 4.3

27.6 5.7 12.4 15.3 23.9 3.7 46.2 39.9 57.3 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 193.6 193.6 193.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.0 -0.3 Manufacturing 20.8 20.9 20.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.7 -3.8 Nonmanufacturing 172.9 172.6 172.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.1 0.1 Construction & Mining 8.2 8.4 9.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.8 3.0 8.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 34.4 34.9 34.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 1.6 0.1 Wholesale Trade 5.2 5.2 5.5 Retail Trade 25.1 25.5 25.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.1 4.2 3.9 Information 2.3 2.3 2.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.8 -2.5 -5.9 Financial Activities 7.5 7.6 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 1.3 -2.2 Prof & Business Services 30.6 28.2 27.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 -7.7 -2.7 Educ & Health Services 32.7 32.8 32.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 0.1 0.1 Leisure & Hospitality 21.6 22.7 23.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 5.3 1.1 Other Services 7.3 7.4 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 0.9 1.6 Federal Government 6.4 6.2 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 -2.1 -0.6 State & Local Government 22.0 22.1 22.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 0.7 0.7

196.9 2.0 20.1 -0.3 176.8 2.3 9.9 8.3 35.6 2.0 5.5 26.7 3.5 2.4 11.0 7.3 -2.6 28.4 3.6 33.2 1.0 23.9 4.3 7.9 6.2 6.1 -1.4 22.0 -1.3

201.7 2.5 20.9 4.1 180.8 2.3 11.0 11.6 36.1 1.3 5.1 27.6 3.5 2.2 -7.2 7.2 -1.3 29.3 3.1 33.9 2.1 25.3 5.6 7.9 -0.9 6.2 1.5 21.7 -1.3

204.0 1.1 21.7 3.8 182.3 0.8 11.5 4.4 36.7 1.5 5.0 28.2 3.4 2.0 -9.8 7.4 2.6 28.7 -2.2 34.4 1.5 25.8 2.2 7.9 0.4 6.4 2.5 21.6 -0.5

208.1 2.0 22.2 2.5 185.9 2.0 12.2 5.6 36.9 0.8 5.1 28.4 3.5 1.9 -2.1 7.5 1.7 30.2 5.3 34.9 1.5 26.2 1.5 7.9 -0.3 6.4 0.6 21.8 0.7

210.6 1.2 22.3 0.5 188.3 1.3 12.7 4.7 36.7 -0.6 5.2 28.0 3.5 2.0 2.6 7.5 0.6 31.7 5.0 35.1 0.8 26.4 0.6 7.8 -0.7 6.3 -1.5 22.0 1.0

212.9 1.1 22.5 0.9 190.4 1.1 13.0 2.4 36.7 0.0 5.3 27.9 3.6 2.0 0.4 7.6 0.8 32.5 2.6 35.7 1.6 26.6 0.8 7.8 0.0 6.2 -1.6 22.2 1.1

558.6 1.2 258.6 -0.1 7.0 1283.8 1245.4 38.0

569.2 1.9 257.6 -0.4 5.9 1662.4 1422.5 240.0

577.4 1.5 256.1 -0.6 5.1 2034.2 1811.2 223.0

584.6 1.3 256.7 0.2 5.0 3667.4 3053.7 614.0

591.6 1.2 258.5 0.7 5.0 4506.4 3612.6 894.0

598.7 1.2 260.2 0.7 5.2 4688.9 3666.9 1022.0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

544.9 0.2 265.2 -0.2 10.9 975.9 846.8 129.0

548.0 0.6 262.9 -0.9 9.4 1120.0 1115.7 4.0

552.0 0.7 258.8 -1.5 8.3 1351.6 1336.0 16.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Palm Bay – M elbou r ne – Titusville

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23.4 3.5 10.4 13

23.7 3.9 10.5 13.2

24 4.1 10.7 13.3

24.3 4.7 10.9 13.4

24.6 5.5 11 13.6

24.9 5.3 11.2 13.7

25.2 5.1 11.4 13.9

25.6 5.4 11.5 14.1

26 5.4 11.7 14.3

26.3 5.5 11.8 14.5

26.7 5.6 12 14.7

27.1 5.6 12.1 15

27.5 5.7 12.3 15.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 2.5

21.6 3.1

21.8 2.7

22 3

22.1 3.7

22.3 3.3

22.5 3.3

22.8 3.5

22.9 3.6

23.1 3.6

23.3 3.6

23.6 3.6

23.8 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

40.5 37

41 37.4

41.4 37.5

41.8 37.8

42.2 37.9

42.6 38.1

43 38.3

43.5 38.6

44 38.8

44.4 39

44.9 39.2

45.4 39.6

45.9 39.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.4 3.2

50.8 3.6

51.4 3

51.9 3.2

52.5 4.1

53 4.3

53.6 4.3

54.2 4.4

54.7 4.3

55.3 4.2

55.8 4.2

56.4 4.2

57 4.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

203 1.1

204.4 1.2

205.6 1.1

206.8 1.9

207.8 2.4

208.5 2

209.1 1.7

209.6 1.4

210.4 1.2

211 1.2

211.5 1.1

212.1 1.2

212.7 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 4.3

21.8 3.1

21.9 3

22.1 3.4

22.2 2.9

22.3 2.2

22.3 1.5

22.3 0.9

22.3 0.4

22.3 0.1

22.4 0.5

22.5 0.8

22.5 0.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

181.4 0.7

182.6 1

183.7 0.9

184.7 1.8

185.6 2.3

186.2 2

186.9 1.7

187.3 1.4

188.1 1.3

188.7 1.3

189.1 1.2

189.7 1.2

190.2 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 4.9

11.5 3.2

11.8 4.2

11.9 4.4

12.1 6.1

12.3 6.2

12.4 5.5

12.5 5.1

12.7 4.9

12.8 4.7

12.9 4

13 3.6

13 2.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

36.7 2.2

36.8 1.5

36.9 1.3

36.9 1.7

37 0.8

37 0.5

36.9 0

36.8 -0.5

36.7 -0.7

36.7 -0.5

36.7 -0.1

36.7 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5 28.3 3.4

5 28.4 3.4

5.1 28.4 3.5

5.1 28.3 3.5

5.1 28.1 3.5

5.2 28 3.5

5.2 27.9 3.6

5.3 27.9 3.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 -11.8

2 -6

2 -3.6

2 0.2

1.9 -1.4

1.9 -4

1.9 -3.1

2 -1.6

2 2.5

2 5.2

2 4.4

2 2

2 0.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.9

7.4 4.3

7.4 3.6

7.5 2

7.5 2.3

7.5 1.6

7.5 1

7.5 0.6

7.6 0.6

7.6 1

7.6 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.4 -3.6

28.7 -1.7

29.1 -0.9

29.6 3.4

30 6

30.4 5.8

30.8 5.8

31.2 5.6

31.7 5.4

31.9 5

32 4

32.2 3

32.4 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

34.1 1.2

34.3 1.4

34.6 1.1

34.7 1

34.9 2.2

34.9 1.7

34.9 1

35 0.7

35.1 0.6

35.2 0.8

35.3 1.2

35.5 1.6

35.6 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25.8 3.2

25.9 2

26 0.9

26.1 1.6

26.2 1.5

26.3 1.5

26.4 1.5

26.3 1

26.4 0.6

26.4 0.4

26.5 0.4

26.5 0.6

26.6 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 0.8

7.9 0

7.9 -1

7.9 -0.4

7.9 0

7.9 -0.1

7.9 -0.7

7.8 -0.9

7.8 -0.8

7.8 -0.6

7.8 -0.4

7.8 -0.1

7.8 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 2.1

6.4 3.1

6.4 2.7

6.4 1.8

6.4 1.3

6.4 0

6.4 -0.5

6.3 -1

6.3 -1.4

6.3 -1.7

6.3 -1.8

6.3 -1.4

6.2 -1.5

21.6 -1

21.7 -0.1

21.7 0.6

21.7 0.9

21.8 0.5

21.8 0.7

21.9 0.8

21.9 0.9

22 1

22 1.1

22.1 1

22.2 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

576.5 1.5

578.4 1.4

580.1 1.3

582 1.3

583.7 1.3

585.5 1.2

587.3 1.2

589.1 1.2

590.8 1.2

592.5 1.2

594.2 1.2

596 1.2

597.7 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

255.6 -0.9

255 -0.5

255.4 -0.7

255.8 -1

256.4 0.3

257 0.8

257.4 0.8

257.8 0.8

258.2 0.7

258.7 0.7

259.2 0.7

259.5 0.7

260 0.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.1

5.2

1698 1562 135

2145 1889 256

2599 2222 377

3073 2587 485

3562 2992 570

3886 3233 652

4149 3401 747

4365 3547 818

4507 3637 870

4579 3659 920

4575 3609 967

4596 3598 999

4651 3634 1016

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.7 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $37,000. The average annual wage growth rate should be 4.5 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $49,900. Population growth will be at an average rate of 1.0 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 14,805.08 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 216,198 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,102 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857

• Federal Government – 7,162 • State Government – 5,253

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365

• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231

• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200 Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforce Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

Employment growth is expected to average 0.8 percent each year, the lowest of the MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 4.6 percent.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with a 3.3 percent average annual growth rate. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 2.6 percent. The Information and Other Services sectors are expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rates of -0.9 and -0.7 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES New YMCA shaping up for fall debut • The new Bear/Levin/Studer YMCA center is set to open in January of 2017, with a soft opening in November of this year. • The center was named after the Bear/Levin/Studer families who donated $1 million, $1 million, and $5 million, respectively. The project cost a total of $16 million and only $2.1 million is left to be raised. • This downtown center is being built to replace the old location found on Palafox Street. The new location will include 19,000 more square feet than its predecessor along with two indoor pools, a gymnasium, a demonstration kitchen and nutrition center, an on-site health care provider called Baptist Health Care (provided through partnership), and more. Source: Pensacola News Journal, July 10, 2016 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P ensacola – F e r ry Pass – B r ent

Wolfe: Marcus Pointe’s new kids’ facility is nearly open • Marcus Pointe Baptist Church has opened a new 15,000-square-foot children’s facility due to expansion of their members. The plot of land had been reserved for years with this plan already in mind.

• The facility contains a children’s auditorium, a security system to monitor check-in and check-outs, an indoor playground, and small group spaces. • The grand opening will be on September 28th and a fundraiser for Ronald McDonald House will also be hosted.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, July 24, 2016 Studer plans $14M office building for Pensacola

• Quint and Rishy Studer have planned a $14.3 million, 57,000-square-foot office building to open in downtown Pensacola by the end of 2017. Construction is set to begin in October of this year. • The building will be four stories tall and the Clark Partington law firm will occupy the top two floors, leaving behind the building they have resided in for about thirty years. The bottom two floors will host restaurants and retail spaces. • Studer’s last office building built in 2014 and found in Maritime Park filled up quickly. President of Studer Properties Andrew Rothfeder said, “We filled that up and we had a waiting list of commercial tenants asking us if we had any more space. We were just blown away by the demand there was.”

Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 9, 2016 New business: Breathe Yoga and Wellness Center opens

• Breathe Yoga and Wellness Center has opened in a new location in order to expand their space and classes they offer.

• After obtaining the space, renovations were put in place. A soundproof wall to separate the center from their neighbors, Arrow Salon and Spa, was put in place. The walls were entirely repainted, the floors were sealed, and more. 76

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

• Regarding their offered classes, Director Tara Taylor said, “We wanted to offer a well-rounded variety of classes. We designed everything to complement what we were offering at the downtown location.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 14, 2016 Wolfe: Price Busters celebrates grand opening with benefit

• Price Busters Games hosted a grand opening ceremony on September 17th, though they have been open for business for about four months now. • Customers could have taken advantage of sales across the store, discounts, raffles, and giveaways going on the entire day. Raffles and giveaways included gift cards, a VIP weekend pass to conventions Questcon and FANdom Con, and weekend passes to Pensacola’s local convention.

• All proceeds from the raffles were benefited to recovery costs for Chris Worth, Price Busters associate, after he was involved in a serious automobile accident. Owner Ben Price said, “It’s like every other business — we’re all family here. Everyone wanted to do something for him.” Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 11, 2016

P ensacola â€“ F e r r y P ass â€“ B r ent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.6

1.2

1.4

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 15500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0

13500.0

4.0%

13000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

12500.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0% -2.0%

155.0 150.0

14000.0

6.0%

175.0

0.8

14500.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.4

-4.0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Pensacola Payroll Employment

-6.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P ensacola – F e r ry Pass – B r ent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

16.4 4.8 7.1 9.3 15.9 2.0 35.9 34.8 41.3 2.5

16.8 2.2 7.3 9.5 16.0 0.5 36.2 34.5 42.1 1.9

16.9 0.8 7.4 9.5 15.9 -0.5 36.1 33.9 42.1 0.1

17.5 3.7 7.6 9.9 16.2 2.1 37.0 34.3 43.3 2.8

18.3 4.4 8.0 10.3 16.9 4.0 38.2 35.2 44.5 2.8

19.1 4.4 8.5 10.6 17.4 3.4 39.4 36.0 46.7 4.9

20.0 4.7 9.0 11.0 17.9 2.9 40.8 36.6 49.0 4.8

21.0 4.7 9.4 11.5 18.5 2.9 42.4 37.4 51.0 4.1

22.0 4.9 9.8 12.1 19.0 2.9 44.2 38.2 53.0 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 158.2 158.1 159.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 0.0 1.1 Manufacturing 5.5 5.6 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.2 5.5 Nonmanufacturing 152.6 152.6 153.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 -0.1 0.9 Construction & Mining 9.8 9.4 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.8 -4.0 -2.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 29.8 30.0 30.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 0.9 1.2 Wholesale Trade 4.9 4.9 4.9 Retail Trade 20.8 21.1 21.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.1 4.0 4.1 Information 2.7 2.4 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.5 -12.4 -1.0 Financial Activities 8.7 9.0 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 3.4 9.9 Prof & Business Services 21.1 21.3 21.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.1 1.3 0.9 Educ & Health Services 27.4 27.0 26.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 -1.4 -1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 18.9 19.3 20.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 2.0 5.0 Other Services 5.8 5.7 5.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4 -1.6 -0.6 Federal Government 6.9 6.8 6.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 -0.9 -2.4 State & Local Government 21.6 21.6 21.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -0.2 -0.9

162.9 1.9 6.0 2.2 156.8 1.9 9.5 3.6 31.1 2.2 5.0 21.9 4.1 2.3 -2.5 10.7 8.6 21.7 0.6 26.8 0.6 20.9 3.2 6.0 5.2 6.5 -2.2 21.4 0.0

167.0 2.6 6.0 0.1 161.0 2.7 9.9 4.0 31.8 2.3 5.1 22.6 4.1 2.3 0.3 11.7 8.7 22.7 4.6 27.5 2.8 21.6 3.0 5.7 -4.8 6.5 0.7 21.3 -0.1

169.5 1.5 6.1 1.6 163.3 1.5 10.2 2.6 31.9 0.3 5.2 22.5 4.2 2.2 -1.8 12.1 3.7 22.9 1.0 28.2 2.5 21.9 1.7 5.7 -0.7 6.7 2.6 21.5 0.9

171.2 1.0 6.1 0.2 165.1 1.1 10.7 5.2 31.8 -0.4 5.2 22.3 4.2 2.2 -3.3 12.3 1.3 23.7 3.7 28.5 0.9 22.1 0.6 5.6 -0.6 6.7 0.2 21.6 0.1

172.1 0.5 6.1 -0.2 166.0 0.5 11.1 4.0 31.4 -1.2 5.3 21.9 4.2 2.2 1.8 12.2 -0.2 24.6 3.8 28.4 -0.2 22.2 0.6 5.6 -1.1 6.6 -2.2 21.6 0.2

172.8 0.4 6.1 0.2 166.6 0.4 11.3 1.6 31.2 -0.6 5.3 21.7 4.2 2.2 -0.4 12.3 0.0 25.1 1.9 28.6 0.5 22.4 0.8 5.5 -0.4 6.4 -2.3 21.7 0.3

473.1 0.9 213.1 0.4 6.1 1970.5 1679.0 291.0

479.0 1.2 213.2 0.0 5.3 2674.5 2101.5 573.0

485.0 1.3 213.0 -0.1 4.7 2788.7 2289.4 499.0

489.9 1.0 213.6 0.3 4.6 2464.9 2025.8 439.0

494.1 0.9 215.0 0.6 4.6 2214.0 1895.8 318.0

497.7 0.7 215.8 0.4 4.6 2226.9 1891.1 336.0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

456.4 1.1 213.4 1.1 9.3 1200.9 1200.0 1.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

463.2 1.5 212.6 -0.4 8.2 1479.3 1462.9 16.0

468.8 1.2 212.2 -0.2 7.0 1982.4 1865.4 117.0

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.9 4 8.4 10.5

19.2 4.5 8.6 10.6

19.5 4.8 8.7 10.7

19.7 4.9 8.9 10.8

19.9 5.1 9 10.9

20.1 4.5 9.1 11

20.3 4.4 9.2 11.2

20.6 4.7 9.3 11.3

20.8 4.7 9.4 11.5

21.1 4.8 9.5 11.6

21.3 4.8 9.6 11.7

21.6 4.9 9.7 11.9

21.9 4.9 9.8 12.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 3.1

17.6 3.7

17.7 3.4

17.8 3.2

17.9 3.3

18 2.5

18.1 2.6

18.3 2.8

18.4 2.9

18.5 2.9

18.6 2.9

18.8 2.9

18.9 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

39.1 35.8

39.6 36.1

40 36.3

40.3 36.4

40.7 36.6

41 36.7

41.4 36.9

41.8 37.1

42.2 37.3

42.6 37.4

43 37.6

43.5 37.9

44 38.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.3 4.7

47.2 5.8

47.7 5.4

48.2 5.7

48.7 5.1

49.2 4.3

49.7 4.3

50.3 4.3

50.7 4.2

51.2 4

51.7 4

52.3 4

52.8 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

168.8 1.3

169.6 1

170.2 1.1

170.7 0.9

171.2 1.4

171.4 1

171.6 0.8

171.7 0.6

172 0.5

172.2 0.5

172.3 0.4

172.6 0.5

172.7 0.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 2.6

6.1 1.3

6.1 0.7

6.1 -0.3

6.1 0.3

6.1 0.4

6.1 0.2

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.6

6.1 -0.2

6.1 0

6.1 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

162.7 1.3

163.5 1

164.1 1.1

164.6 0.9

165 1.4

165.2 1.1

165.5 0.9

165.6 0.6

165.9 0.6

166.1 0.5

166.2 0.4

166.4 0.5

166.6 0.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 2.3

10.2 1.7

10.4 3.9

10.5 4.8

10.6 5.4

10.8 5.4

10.9 5.1

11 4.5

11.1 4.2

11.2 4

11.2 3.1

11.3 2.7

11.3 1.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.8 -0.4

31.8 -0.2

31.8 -0.9

31.8 0.1

31.7 -0.2

31.7 -0.6

31.5 -1.1

31.4 -1.3

31.4 -1.2

31.3 -1.1

31.3 -0.7

31.2 -0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 22.4 4.2

5.2 22.5 4.2

5.2 22.4 4.2

5.2 22.3 4.2

5.3 22.2 4.2

5.3 22 4.2

5.3 21.9 4.2

5.3 21.8 4.2

5.3 21.7 4.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -2.7

2.2 -4.4

2.2 -4.1

2.2 -2.5

2.2 -2.2

2.1 -4.7

2.1 -3.8

2.2 -2.3

2.2 1.8

2.2 4.5

2.2 3.7

2.2 1.2

2.2 -0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.1 3.4

12.2 3.7

12.2 3.3

12.3 2.8

12.3 1.5

12.3 0.8

12.3 0.2

12.2 -0.1

12.3 -0.1

12.2 -0.2

12.3 0.2

12.3 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 1

22.9 0.3

23.1 -0.2

23.4 2.5

23.7 4.2

23.8 4

24.1 4.2

24.4 4.1

24.6 4.2

24.7 3.9

24.8 2.9

24.9 2.1

25 1.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 2.3

28.3 2.5

28.4 2.9

28.5 2

28.5 1.1

28.5 0.6

28.4 0

28.4 -0.3

28.4 -0.4

28.4 -0.2

28.5 0.1

28.5 0.5

28.5 0.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 1.5

21.8 0.5

21.9 -0.5

21.9 -1.9

22 1.5

22.1 1.4

22.2 1.4

22.1 1

22.2 0.7

22.2 0.4

22.3 0.4

22.3 0.6

22.3 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -0.3

5.7 -1.2

5.7 -0.9

5.7 -0.3

5.6 -0.5

5.6 -0.6

5.6 -1.2

5.6 -1.3

5.6 -1.2

5.6 -1

5.6 -0.8

5.6 -0.5

5.6 -0.4

6.7 2.9

6.8 3.3

6.8 2.7

6.8 2.1

6.7 0.6

6.7 -0.7

6.7 -1.2

6.6 -1.7

6.6 -2.1

6.6 -2.3

6.5 -2.5

6.5 -1.8

6.5 -2.1

21.6 1.1

21.6 1

21.6 1.5

21.6 0.8

21.6 0.1

21.5 -0.3

21.6 -0.1

21.6 0.1

21.6 0.2

21.6 0.3

21.6 0.2

21.7 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

484.4 1.3

485.7 1.2

486.9 1.1

488.3 1.1

489.3 1

490.5 1

491.6 0.9

492.7 0.9

493.6 0.9

494.6 0.8

495.6 0.8

496.5 0.8

497.3 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

212.4 -0.6

212 -0.2

212.4 -0.6

212.8 -1.2

213.3 0.5

213.9 0.9

214.2 0.8

214.5 0.8

214.8 0.7

215.1 0.6

215.4 0.6

215.6 0.5

215.8 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.7

3030 2385 645

2759 2172 587

2575 2078 497

2477 2061 416

2525 2068 457

2453 2004 449

2404 1970 434

2300 1940 360

2173 1885 289

2198 1893 305

2185 1866 319

2188 1858 331

2210 1875 334

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tallahassee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.9 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $36,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent. The average annual wage level will be $46,700. Population growth will average 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 14,276.45 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 186,089 in July 2016 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 9,461 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 24,599 • Florida State University – 6,119 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Publix Supermarket – 2,102 • Florida A&M University – 1,923 • Leon County – 1,919 • Walmart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,144

Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

Employment growth is expected to average 1.3 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 4.6 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 4.4 percent annually. Professional and Business Services follows with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent. The Information and Manufacturing sectors are expected to decline by -1.2 and -0.2 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES U.S. Navy awards FSU center $35 million research grant

• In an effort to help fund Florida State University’s Center for Advanced Power Systems (CAPS), the U.S. Navy has awarded the center $35 million to be spread over five years. • The grant was awarded “to broaden [CAPS’] research in creating an all-electric ship.”

• According to the university, researchers at CAPS will be leading a team of scientists and engineers from several universities, including Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Purdue University, to work on the energy and machinery requirements for an all-electric ship. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 8, 2016

T allahassee

Phase II nears for Centre of Tallahassee mall

• Phase II of the Centre of Tallahassee Mall project focuses on redesigning the mall’s interior, including the addition of “skylights and a sophisticated air system [that] will give the illusion of outdoors,” and updated flooring. • Current tenants Ross and Shoe Carnival are planning renovations, while Belk and AMC 20 have already begun investing in renovations to complement the changes to the mall.

• Five new undisclosed tenants are projected to open in 2017 in the spaces between Ross and Barnes & Noble. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 5, 2016 Tallahassee airport solar farm gets FAA approval

• Origis’ plan to build a $33.2 million solar panel farm at Tallahassee International Airport has been approved by the Federal Aviation Association. • In an effort to diversify Tallahassee’s fuel supply and reduce its carbon footprint, Origis will put up 90,000 solar modules to generate up to 20 megawatts, which is 2% of the city’s current capacity.

• The proposed solar panel farm is slated to be built on 120 acres of land between the north-south runway and Springhill Road, which the airport will lease to the Utilities Department for 33 years.

• According to Chris Curry, aviation director at Tallahassee International Airport, the airport will be using money earned from the lease to reduce the cost airlines pay to operate at the airport, which would hopefully translate into lower ticket prices for customers.

• The project is slated to be completed in December 2017, although expansion plans are still in the works.

• According to president and dealer principal of ZT Motors, Garrick Hatfield, the dealership reported earning $33 million in sales in 2015. He projects that the dealership will increase its sales by 10-15 percent annually, after improvements and inventory expansion. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 29, 2016 Care Point construction underway

• Care Point Health and Wellness Center, an $11-million, 27-square-foot facility, is the first major project in Tallahassee’s south side in over a decade.

• Big Bend Cares, the agency behind the concept, aims to “serve insured low-income families, single parents, senior citizens and under-employed residents.”

• Care Point will offer a variety of services in an effort to help people avoid being “bounced around for medical care.” Some services that will be accessible for insured patients include dentists, mental health professionals, and lab work and radiology services. • According to County Commissioner Nick Maddox, this project, which will be completed in fall 2017, is “a great step toward revitalizing an area that’s been neglected far too long.” Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 13, 2016

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, July 26, 2016 Texas wealth management company buys local Kia dealership

• On August 11th, Kia AutoSport on West Tennessee Street was purchased by ZT Motors, a division of ZT Wealth, a wealth management company attempting to “[expand] into automotive sales throughout the Southeast.” Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tallahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 15000.0

6.0%

13500.0

4.0%

13000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

12500.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

4.0%

175.0

2.0%

170.0

0.0% -2.0%

165.0

(Millions 2000 $)

6.0%

180.0

160.0

14000.0

8.0%

185.0

2.5

14500.0

10.0%

2.0%

-4.0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Tallahassee Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

-6.0%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income

T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

13.4 5.2 6.8 6.6 13.0 2.5 36.0 34.9 40.1 0.9

13.0 -3.1 6.8 6.2 12.4 -4.8 34.6 33.0 40.9 1.8

13.0 0.4 6.9 6.1 12.2 -0.9 34.8 32.7 41.0 0.4

13.6 4.8 7.2 6.4 12.6 3.1 36.3 33.6 41.9 2.2

14.1 3.6 7.4 6.7 13.0 3.3 37.4 34.5 42.9 2.2

14.7 4.2 7.9 6.9 13.5 3.2 38.5 35.2 44.4 3.5

15.6 5.5 8.3 7.2 14.0 3.7 40.1 36.0 46.3 4.4

16.4 5.6 8.8 7.6 14.5 3.7 41.8 36.8 48.4 4.4

17.3 5.5 9.3 8.1 15.0 3.5 43.6 37.7 50.4 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 168.0 166.2 167.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 -1.0 0.7 Manufacturing 3.3 3.1 3.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.2 -3.9 -2.3 Nonmanufacturing 164.7 163.1 164.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 -1.0 0.8 Construction & Mining 6.1 5.9 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -4.0 5.4 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.3 22.2 22.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 -0.6 2.6 Wholesale Trade 3.3 3.2 3.2 Retail Trade 17.5 17.4 17.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.6 1.6 1.7 Information 3.2 3.3 3.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.6 3.8 Financial Activities 7.5 7.2 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 -4.1 1.5 Prof & Business Services 18.4 18.2 18.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 -1.1 1.7 Educ & Health Services 19.9 19.7 19.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 -0.6 -0.3 Leisure & Hospitality 16.2 16.8 17.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 3.5 2.8 Other Services 8.9 9.2 8.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 3.1 -3.8 Federal Government 1.9 1.9 2.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.1 -0.5 3.6 State & Local Government 60.3 58.7 58.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -2.6 -0.5

171.5 2.4 2.9 -4.4 168.5 2.6 6.3 1.7 23.7 3.9 3.4 18.5 1.8 3.9 12.8 7.1 -2.7 19.0 2.6 20.6 4.8 17.9 3.7 9.0 2.2 1.9 -2.6 59.2 1.3

172.9 0.9 3.0 2.3 169.9 0.8 6.7 6.8 24.2 2.2 3.6 18.7 1.9 3.5 -9.4 6.9 -2.1 19.0 0.0 21.0 2.1 18.7 4.3 8.8 -2.3 2.0 1.8 59.1 -0.1

176.2 1.9 2.9 -2.9 173.2 2.0 7.0 3.9 24.5 1.3 3.6 18.8 2.0 3.3 -7.1 7.2 3.4 20.1 6.1 21.4 1.9 19.9 6.8 9.0 1.5 2.0 1.9 58.9 -0.4

179.4 1.8 3.0 1.1 176.5 1.9 7.4 6.0 24.6 0.7 3.7 18.9 2.1 3.2 -1.2 7.3 1.9 21.2 5.2 21.8 1.9 20.3 2.1 9.0 0.5 2.0 1.1 59.5 1.1

181.4 1.1 3.0 0.7 178.5 1.1 7.7 4.3 24.5 -0.5 3.7 18.7 2.1 3.3 2.7 7.3 0.3 22.1 4.5 22.0 0.6 20.5 0.8 9.0 -0.3 2.0 -1.0 60.0 0.8

183.1 0.9 3.0 1.1 180.1 0.9 7.9 2.0 24.5 0.0 3.8 18.6 2.1 3.3 0.4 7.4 0.4 22.7 2.4 22.3 1.3 20.7 0.9 9.0 0.3 2.0 -1.3 60.5 0.8

375.9 0.5 188.9 1.1 5.8 1278.0 678.7 599.0

378.4 0.6 186.3 -1.4 5.2 1375.5 728.0 647.0

382.7 1.2 187.1 0.4 4.6 1288.1 846.9 441.0

388.0 1.4 189.1 1.1 4.4 1713.9 1087.4 626.0

392.8 1.2 191.1 1.1 4.3 2059.6 1215.4 844.0

397.4 1.2 192.4 0.7 4.3 2146.4 1209.2 937.0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

371.8 0.7 190.0 -0.4 8.3 785.6 567.0 219.0

374.8 0.8 188.0 -1.1 7.5 994.4 495.8 499.0

374.0 -0.2 186.9 -0.6 6.5 1184.2 611.2 573.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tallahassee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.6 3.8 7.8 6.8

14.8 4.6 7.9 6.9

15.1 5.1 8 7

15.3 5.6 8.2 7.1

15.5 5.7 8.3 7.2

15.6 5.4 8.4 7.2

15.9 5.3 8.5 7.3

16.1 5.6 8.6 7.5

16.3 5.6 8.8 7.6

16.5 5.6 8.9 7.6

16.7 5.5 9 7.8

17 5.4 9.1 7.9

17.2 5.4 9.2 8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 2.9

13.5 3.8

13.7 3.8

13.8 3.9

13.9 3.9

14 3.4

14.1 3.5

14.3 3.7

14.4 3.7

14.5 3.7

14.6 3.6

14.8 3.4

14.9 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

38.3 35

38.7 35.3

39.1 35.5

39.5 35.7

39.9 35.9

40.3 36

40.7 36.2

41.2 36.5

41.6 36.7

42 36.9

42.4 37.1

42.9 37.4

43.4 37.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.1 3.2

44.6 3.9

45.1 3.7

45.5 4.1

46.1 4.6

46.6 4.5

47.1 4.6

47.7 4.6

48.2 4.5

48.6 4.3

49.1 4.2

49.6 4.1

50.1 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

176 2

176.9 2.3

177.7 2.4

178.6 2.6

179.2 1.9

179.7 1.5

180.2 1.4

180.7 1.2

181.3 1.1

181.7 1.1

182.1 1

182.5 1

182.9 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 -4.3

2.9 -1.8

2.9 -1.7

2.9 0.7

2.9 1.1

3 1.2

3 1.1

3 0.6

3 0.3

3 0.7

3 0.9

3 1.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

173.1 2.1

174 2.3

174.8 2.5

175.7 2.7

176.3 1.9

176.7 1.5

177.2 1.4

177.7 1.2

178.3 1.1

178.7 1.2

179.1 1.1

179.5 1

179.9 0.9

6.9 4.6

7 3.7

7.2 3.3

7.3 5.4

7.4 6.6

7.5 6.5

7.5 5.6

7.6 4.9

7.7 4.6

7.8 4.4

7.8 3.6

7.9 3.2

7.9 2.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.4 1.3

24.5 0.8

24.6 1.8

24.6 0.7

24.7 1

24.7 0.7

24.6 0.2

24.5 -0.4

24.5 -0.6

24.5 -0.5

24.5 -0.1

24.5 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.6 18.8 2

3.6 18.9 2

3.6 18.9 2.1

3.7 18.9 2.1

3.7 18.7 2.1

3.7 18.6 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 -5.6

3.3 -5.7

3.3 2.9

3.2 -1.2

3.1 -3.7

3.2 -2.8

3.3 -1.4

3.3 2.7

3.3 5.3

3.3 4.5

3.3 2

3.3 0.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 2.9

7.2 4.3

7.2 4

7.3 2.9

7.3 2.2

7.3 1.5

7.3 0.9

7.3 0.4

7.3 0.3

7.4 0.6

7.4 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.1 5.6

20.3 7.2

20.5 8

20.8 5.6

21.1 5.1

21.3 5

21.5 5.1

21.9 4.9

22.1 4.9

22.3 4.6

22.3 3.5

22.4 2.7

22.6 2.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 2.1

21.5 2.3

21.7 2.2

21.8 2.9

21.8 2.1

21.9 1.6

21.9 1

21.9 0.6

21.9 0.4

22 0.6

22.1 0.9

22.2 1.3

22.2 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.9 7.7

20 6.9

20.1 5.4

20.2 2.9

20.3 1.8

20.4 1.8

20.5 1.8

20.4 1.2

20.5 0.9

20.5 0.5

20.6 0.5

20.6 0.7

20.6 0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9 1.6

9 2.2

9 1.3

9 1.1

9 0.6

9 0.4

9 -0.2

9 -0.4

9 -0.2

9 -0.1

9 0.2

9 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2 1.8

2 2.7

2 1.7

2 1.9

2 1.8

2 0.6

2 0

2 -0.5

2 -0.9

2 -1.2

2 -1.4

2 -1.9

2 -1.5

59 -0.2

59.2 0.1

59.3 0.7

59.4 2.2

59.5 0.9

59.5 0.5

59.7 0.7

59.9 0.8

60 0.8

60.1 0.9

60.2 0.9

60.3 0.8

60.5 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

382.1 1.1

383.4 1.3

384.7 1.4

386.1 1.4

387.4 1.4

388.7 1.4

389.9 1.3

391.1 1.3

392.3 1.3

393.4 1.2

394.5 1.2

395.7 1.2

396.8 1.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

186.9 0.1

186.8 0.8

187.5 1.1

188.1 0.5

188.8 1

189.5 1.4

190 1.3

190.5 1.2

190.9 1.1

191.3 1

191.7 0.9

192 0.8

192.3 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

1202 820 382

1295 872 422

1364 917 448

1497 995 502

1671 1072 599

1777 1121 656

1911 1163 748

1985 1191 794

2045 1225 821

2088 1225 863

2120 1221 899

2127 1203 923

2132 1198 934

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.3 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $41,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent. The average annual wage level will be $56,000. Population growth will average 1.6 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 128,162.22 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,475,593 in July 2016 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 4.8% as of July 2016, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 70,569 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823

Employment growth is expected to average 2.1 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 4.5 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.9 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent, and the Financial and Leisure sectors at 2.3 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Two of Tampa Bay’s smallest banks shine in 2Q report • Seminole-based First Home Bank had a higher return on assets than any other bank in Florida for the second quarter of 2016 at 5.92 percent. • This return on assets far outpaces the national average of 1.38 percent for banks between $100 million and $1 billion in assets (First Home has $122.3 million in assets). • A second Tampa-area bank, Central Bank, garnered a 4.52 percent ROA for the quarter. Central has $33 million in assets.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, August 31, 2016

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa – St. P ete r sbu rg – Clearwate r

Uber vote cancelled at PTC

• Hillsborough County’s Public Transportation Commission (PTC) has backed off on their plan to vote regarding regulatory rules for car-sharing services like Uber and Lyft.

• The taxi industry and an organization named DriveSociety have been pressing the PTC to implement regulations such as seven-minute minimum wait times, $7 minimum fares, and more extensive background checks for drivers. • The vote was cancelled because the PTC’s attorney advised the board that they had failed to properly notify the meeting, which would allow the rules to be invalidated. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, September 14, 2016 New Westshore hotel breaks ground

• Tampa Bay’s business district will soon be home to a new hotel, as PRISA Group and Peachtree Hotel Group have announced the construction of a 175room AC Hotel.

• The project has been brewing since November 2015, and the hotel will open in December 2017. AC Hotel is a Marriott brand, which has 20 hotels in the United States, although approximately 75 more are on the way. • PRISA Group, a family-owned builder, will be involved in the construction along with Welbro Building Corporation. Popular Community Bank, which is located in Miami, is providing the financing. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, September 13, 2016 Target to hire more than 200 in Tampa

• Three of Target’s Tampa franchises have declared plans to hire over 200 employees in advance of the back-to-school shopping surge.

• Although these employees would be considered seasonal workers, Target spokesperson Erika Winkels expects many employees to stay on through the holiday season and even as year-round workers. 86

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

• The three stores in search of workers are those at Tampa Central Walter’s Crossing, University Plaza, and Dale Mabry Highway. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 22, 2016 Developer snaps up 70 acres for massive spec warehouse project in Plant City

• McCraney Property Co. of West Palm Beach has closed a deal to buy 70 acres of farmland in Plant City of Hillsborough County.

• The group is planning a massive warehouse development on what was previously land owned by a strawberry farm. According to McCraney, the site is one of few in the area that can support a millionsquare-foot user. • Other distribution centers in the area include Amazon, Publix Super Markets, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and Southern Wine and Spirits. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 19, 2016

T ampa â€“ S t . P ete r sbu r g â€“ C lea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 140000.0

6.0%

110000.0

4.0%

100000.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

90000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

(Thousands)

1350.0 1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Tampa Payroll Employment

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment

1050.0

1.4

120000.0

8.0%

1400.0

1.2

130000.0

10.0%

2.0%

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa – St. P ete r sbu rg – Clearwate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

September 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

115.0 7.4 53.0 62.0 111.4 4.6 40.6 39.4 46.6 1.7

113.7 -1.1 55.5 58.2 108.3 -2.8 39.9 38.0 47.8 2.6

114.8 1.0 57.3 57.5 107.9 -0.4 39.9 37.5 48.2 0.8

120.4 4.9 60.3 60.1 111.4 3.2 41.1 38.1 49.4 2.4

126.8 5.3 64.1 62.6 116.9 4.9 42.5 39.2 50.8 2.9

132.9 4.9 68.6 64.3 121.3 3.8 43.8 40.0 52.7 3.8

140.0 5.3 73.0 66.9 125.6 3.5 45.3 40.7 54.8 4.0

147.7 5.5 77.3 70.3 130.1 3.6 47.1 41.5 57.1 4.2

155.7 5.5 81.4 74.3 134.6 3.5 49.0 42.4 59.4 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1123.3 1148.6 1176.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.3 2.4 Manufacturing 58.8 59.4 60.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 1064.5 1089.2 1116.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.3 2.5 Construction & Mining 52.6 54.2 56.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 3.0 5.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 213.4 218.9 222.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.6 1.8 Wholesale Trade 46.3 48.4 48.9 Retail Trade 141.3 143.9 146.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.8 26.6 27.3 Information 25.9 25.7 26.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -0.6 1.4 Financial Activities 91.6 95.5 99.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 4.3 4.3 Prof & Business Services 182.5 190.9 198.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 4.6 3.8 Educ & Health Services 180.9 182.3 184.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 0.8 1.3 Leisure & Hospitality 123.0 128.3 133.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 4.3 3.9 Other Services 41.3 41.1 42.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 -0.5 3.3 Federal Government 22.9 22.6 22.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6 -1.3 0.4 State & Local Government 130.4 129.6 129.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -0.6 -0.1

1208.5 2.7 61.2 2.0 1147.3 2.8 60.8 6.9 232.0 4.1 50.4 152.8 28.7 25.6 -2.1 101.8 2.1 204.3 3.1 188.4 2.0 138.4 3.9 43.4 2.3 22.9 0.8 129.9 0.2

1250.2 3.4 61.9 1.2 1188.3 3.6 64.4 5.8 239.6 3.3 51.4 158.4 29.7 25.7 0.5 104.1 2.3 218.7 7.1 195.2 3.6 144.8 4.6 43.2 -0.3 23.6 3.2 129.0 -0.7

1288.8 3.1 62.0 0.1 1226.9 3.2 68.4 6.3 244.8 2.2 52.5 161.4 30.9 25.7 0.0 108.1 3.8 231.6 5.9 202.6 3.8 151.0 4.3 43.2 -0.1 24.2 2.4 127.3 -1.3

1320.1 2.4 62.4 0.7 1257.8 2.5 72.1 5.4 247.8 1.2 53.3 162.8 31.7 25.2 -2.1 111.4 3.1 244.7 5.7 206.4 1.9 154.4 2.3 43.2 -0.1 24.5 1.3 128.1 0.6

1341.3 1.6 62.5 0.3 1278.8 1.7 76.0 5.4 247.3 -0.2 53.8 161.4 32.0 25.9 3.0 113.0 1.4 256.0 4.6 207.6 0.6 156.0 1.0 43.1 -0.3 24.3 -0.9 129.6 1.1

1358.3 1.3 63.0 0.8 1295.3 1.3 78.0 2.6 247.9 0.2 54.5 161.1 32.2 26.1 0.7 114.0 0.9 263.2 2.8 210.3 1.3 157.8 1.2 43.2 0.3 24.0 -1.2 131.0 1.1

2925.8 1.6 1437.7 1.1 6.0 11744.9 7200.4 4544.0

2982.1 1.9 1446.9 0.6 5.1 14700.3 9426.6 5274.0

3037.0 1.8 1468.5 1.5 4.5 18223.1 11600.8 6622.0

3087.6 1.7 1495.9 1.9 4.5 20089.9 13596.6 6493.0

3134.9 1.5 1523.4 1.8 4.5 20404.6 14346.8 6058.0

3176.7 1.3 1544.0 1.4 4.5 20891.2 14279.6 6612.0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2829.5 1.2 1398.3 1.0 9.9 6968.3 4514.1 2454.0

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

2851.0 0.8 1411.5 0.9 8.3 9058.4 5927.5 3131.0

2880.2 1.0 1422.5 0.8 6.9 11579.8 7251.6 4328.0

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

September 2016

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

131.8 4.7 67.9 63.9

133.7 4.8 69 64.6

135.5 4.8 70.2 65.3

137.4 5.2 71.4 66

139.1 5.5 72.5 66.6

140.8 5.3 73.6 67.2

142.6 5.3 74.7 68

144.9 5.5 75.8 69.1

146.7 5.5 76.8 69.9

148.5 5.5 77.9 70.7

150.5 5.5 78.8 71.6

152.7 5.4 79.9 72.8

154.7 5.4 80.9 73.8

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

120.5 3.8

121.9 4

122.9 3.5

124.1 3.5

125 3.7

126 3.4

127.1 3.4

128.5 3.6

129.6 3.6

130.6 3.6

131.6 3.5

132.9 3.4

134 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

43.5 39.8

43.9 40.1

44.3 40.2

44.8 40.4

45.1 40.6

45.5 40.7

45.9 40.9

46.5 41.2

46.9 41.4

47.3 41.6

47.7 41.8

48.3 42

48.8 42.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.4 3.8

52.9 3.9

53.4 3.2

54 3.5

54.5 4.1

55.1 4.3

55.7 4.2

56.3 4.3

56.8 4.2

57.4 4.1

58 4.1

58.6 4.1

59.2 4.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1284.7 3.3

1293.7 3.1

1302.3 2.7

1311.1 2.9

1317.8 2.6

1322.8 2.2

1328.8 2

1334.1 1.7

1339.6 1.7

1344 1.6

1347.6 1.4

1352 1.3

1356 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

61.9 0.4

62.1 -0.3

62 -0.3

62 0.3

62.3 0.7

62.6 0.8

62.5 0.9

62.4 0.6

62.4 0.2

62.6 0

62.7 0.3

62.8 0.6

62.9 0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1222.8 3.5

1231.7 3.3

1240.4 2.8

1249.1 3

1255.5 2.7

1260.3 2.3

1266.2 2.1

1271.6 1.8

1277.2 1.7

1281.5 1.7

1284.9 1.5

1289.2 1.4

1293.1 1.2

68.2 6.8

68.6 5.5

69.3 5.7

70.4 4.1

71.6 4.9

72.7 6.1

73.9 6.6

74.8 6.3

75.7 5.7

76.6 5.3

77.1 4.4

77.5 3.6

77.8 2.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

244.8 2.3

245.7 2

246.8 2.6

247.3 2.2

247.8 1.2

247.9 0.9

248 0.5

247.2 0

247.1 -0.3

247.3 -0.3

247.5 -0.2

247.7 0.2

247.8 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

52.8 161.2 30.8

52.8 162 31

52.9 162.7 31.2

53.1 162.8 31.4

53.2 163 31.6

53.3 162.9 31.7

53.5 162.6 31.8

53.6 161.7 31.9

53.8 161.3 32

53.9 161.3 32.1

54.1 161.2 32.1

54.3 161.2 32.1

54.5 161.2 32.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.7 0.2

25.7 -0.3

25.6 -0.7

25.8 0

25.3 -1.6

24.6 -4

24.9 -2.8

25.5 -1.2

26 3

26 5.7

26.1 4.9

26.1 2.3

26.1 0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

107.6 3.9

108.8 4.4

109.8 3.8

110.6 4.2

111.1 3.3

111.6 2.6

112.2 2.1

112.5 1.7

112.8 1.5

113.2 1.4

113.5 1.2

113.7 1.1

113.9 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

230.3 6.3

233.3 6.1

236.6 5.1

240.7 6.4

243.7 5.8

245.7 5.3

248.7 5.1

252.6 5

255.8 5

257.4 4.8

258.2 3.8

260.2 3

262 2.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

201.9 4.2

203.2 4

204.8 2.5

205.7 2.6

206.4 2.2

206.7 1.7

206.8 1

206.9 0.6

207.2 0.4

207.8 0.5

208.5 0.8

209.4 1.2

209.9 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

150.7 5.1

151.8 4.5

152.4 3.2

153 2.7

154 2.2

155 2.1

155.6 2.1

155.5 1.6

155.8 1.2

156.2 0.8

156.7 0.7

156.9 0.9

157.5 1.1

43.1 -0.1

43.1 -0.5

43.2 -0.7

43.3 -0.4

43.2 0.3

43.2 0.2

43.1 -0.2

43.1 -0.4

43.1 -0.2

43.1 -0.1

43.2 0.2

43.2 0.3

24 2.3

24.3 2.7

24.4 2.4

24.5 2.2

24.5 2.1

24.5 0.7

24.5 0.1

24.4 -0.3

24.3 -0.8

24.2 -1.1

24.1 -1.3

24.1 -1.2

24 -1.2

126.6 -1.9

127.3 -1.2

127.4 -1

127.7 -0.3

128 1.1

128.2 0.8

128.6 0.9

129 1

129.4 1.1

129.8 1.2

130.1 1.2

130.4 1.1

130.8 1.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3030.5 1.9

3043.7 1.8

3056.8 1.8

3069.1 1.7

3081.5 1.7

3093.9 1.6

3106.1 1.6

3118.1 1.6

3129.5 1.6

3140.7 1.5

3151.4 1.5

3161.8 1.4

3171.8 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1463.8 1.2

1468.1 1.7

1476.7 1.6

1484.5 1.3

1492.3 2

1500.1 2.2

1506.8 2

1513.8 2

1520.4 1.9

1526.6 1.8

1532.8 1.7

1537.8 1.6

1542.3 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

4.6

4.5

18153 11253 6900

18915 11578 7337

19294 12140 7153

19424 12836 6588

20226 13539 6687

20261 13854 6406

20449 14158 6291

20507 14394 6113

20369 14453 5917

20414 14400 6014

20327 14140 6187

20438 14050 6388

20718 14150 6568

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

I n d ust r y L ocation Q uotient

E X P L A N AT I O N A N D I N T E R P R E TAT I O N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ€™s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C A L C U L AT I O N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2016

SEAN M. SNAITH, PH.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. An award-winning forecaster, researcher and professor, Snaith has served as a consultant for governments and multi-national corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business Administration, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in national and regional media and is a sought-after speaker. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and CNNMoney.com and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network and Business News Network, based in Toronto. Known for his engaging presentations, Snaith earned praise from one business editor for having an “uncanny knack for making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith was named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters in 2008. In 2007, he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. FOR MORE INFORMATION Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: sean.snaith@ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4 w w w. i e c . u c f . e d u