TiCSA Tourism Barometer
September Quarter 2025
Confidence is waning from decreased demand and increasing costs
The tourism industry in South Australia continues to struggle in a challenging environment. Prior to the June quarter 2025, there had been promising signs for South Australia’s tourism industry, with many Barometer indicators increasing and confidence returning to the tourism industry. However, a vast area of South Australia’s coastline has been impacted by an Algal Bloom since March 2025, disrupting key tourism regions including the Fleurieu Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, Yorke Peninsula, Port Lincoln and Adelaide’s local beaches.
While the Algal Bloom has contributed, many survey respondents also continued to point to economic uncertainty, cost-of-living pressures and rising operating costs as significant challenges
Even if an interest rate cut occurs in November and the holiday season is particularly busy, the tourism industry may still struggle to get its mojo back.
Business Activity (Last Three Months)
The main reasons for the positive performance in the September quarter were:
• Increased digital presence;
• Introduced new product or service;
• Increase in domestic travel;
• Adapted product or service; and
• Accessing new markets.
“Increased awareness of business and newproduct ”
“CoastisCallingcampaign.”
The main reasons for the negative performance in the September quarter were:
• Decreased visitors to the area;
• Weaker economy;
• Lack of consumer confidence;
• High cost of travel to destination; and
• Decreased rates, prices or visitor spend in the business.
“UncertaintyandfearofAlgalBloom. ”
“Impact of cost-of-living increase and generaldeteriorationindisposable income.”
Figure 3: Business Activity in the Last Three Months
Weaker Stronger Barometer
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia.
Business Activity by Market Segment (Last Three Months)
Consistent with the headline index, all market segments recorded index levels of below 100 in the September quarter.
The “festivals and events” segments reported the strongest conditions in the quarter, while conditions were weakest in the “Holiday / Leisure” and business segments. Just 8% of operators within the “business” segment and 4% of the “Conference and business meetings” segment reported an increase in activity, while 53% of the “Holiday / Leisure” segment recorded a decrease in activity, likely owing to the Algal Bloom and seasonal variations
4: Business Activity – By Market Segment (September Quarter 2025)
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Business Outlook (Next Three Months)
As previously mentioned, prior to June quarter 2025, the Business Outlook Index had trended higher since the recent trough in June quarter 2023, reflecting optimism that the worst of the cost-of-living crisis and higher interest rates may be behind the South Australian tourism industry and the Australian economy more broadly However, the ongoing Algal Bloom appears to have weakened confidence amongst tourism operators in the June and September quarters
Figure 5: Business Outlook for the Next Three Months
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Business Outlook (Next 12 Months)
Confidence in the business outlook has continued to deteriorate. The proportion of businesses ‘extremely worried’ or ‘worried’ rose to 48% in the September quarter, up from 30% in the June quarter and 19% in the March quarter (prior to the Algal Bloom). Additionally, the proportion of respondents that were ‘very worried’ about the outlook rose to 9% in the September quarter, up from just 1% in the June quarter, demonstrating an increasing pessimistic outlook for the tourism industry in South Australia
Further, the proportion of businesses that are ‘extremely confident’ or ‘confident’ in the outlook for their business fell to just 36%, a low level not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic.
6: Business Outlook for the Next Twelve Months
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Table 1: The Top Factors Influencing the Future Outlook Positive Factors
• Proactive government;
• Lower interest rates; and
• Improving economy
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
“Theproactivegovernment activityhas improvedmyforecastfromnegativeto neutral ”
“Loweringofinterestrates,potential strongsummerweather.”
• Lack of confidence;
• High cost of living reducing disposable incomes; and
• Algal Bloom
“Mediaoverreporting / sensationalisingtheAlgaeBloom situation.”
“Worried how summer trade will be with less peopletravellinghereduetothe Algae Bloom plus cost-of-livingpressures. ”
Employment and Wages
Most tourism businesses continue to report no change in their employment. Unsurprisingly, growing pessimism amongst operators appears to have impacted labour market activity in the tourism industry, with an increase in the proportion of operators that reported a decrease in employment and a fall in the proportion reporting an increase.
The September quarter also saw an increase in the proportion of respondents reporting an increase in their wage bill Combined, it signals increasing operating costs for operators.
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Despite the Employment Index weakening, data from the ABS Labour Force Survey showed total employment in South Australia in the accommodation and food services industry rose 6,300 persons to 62,700 in August quarter 2025
While industry employment is now 2,800 persons (or 4%) below the peak in November quarter 2022, over the past year employment has risen 3,800 persons (or 6%). The increase in the August quarter 2025 was based solely on part-time roles.
Figure 9: SA Employment, Accommodation and Food Services Industry
Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Cat. No. 6291.055.003
Key Challenges for Tourism Businesses in SA
Cost pressures are not going away and continue to present a challenge for the tourism industry. The recent pessimism has also entered as a key challenge.
Figure 10: Key Challenges Facing Tourism Businesses
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Investment Outlook
Since the Algal Bloom has hit the South Australian tourism industry, the proportion of businesses stating they were planning more investment over the next 12 months has fallen from 48% in the March quarter to 32% in the September quarter While the Index level has fallen to 107, this is well below the pre-COVID average of around 129.
Figure 11: Planned Investment
Percentage Quarter ended Less No change More
Source: Tourism Industry Council South Australia
Statistical Note:
The TiCSA Tourism Barometer September quarter 2025 survey was conducted online 8-15 October 2025. A total of 157 responses were received, representing a margin of error of +/- 7.8% at a confidence level of 95%.
Airport Passengers
Growth in airport passenger numbers has slowed recently following year of strong growth after state and international borders were re-opened after the COVID period. The Adelaide Airport saw 1.87 million domestic passenger movements and 276,000 international passenger movements for a total of 2.15 million in June quarter 2025 (latest data available), marginally above the 2.09 million recorded in June quarter 2024.
Table 2: Adelaide Airport Quarterly Passenger Statistics
Passengers (‘000)
Note: Domestic movements include regional.
Source: Adelaide Airport (2025)
Visitation and Expenditure
Visitor expenditure in South Australia continued to strengthen in the year ending June quarter 2025 (albeit at a slower pace) despite the Algal Bloom and some flooding events impacting visitor numbers in 2025 The increase in the year ending June quarter 2025 was driven by a 33% increase in international expenditure and an 8% increase in day-trip expenditure, with these increases more than offsetting a 9% decline in interstate overnight visitor expenditure in the year.
While total domestic overnight expenditure in South Australia fell 2% from the corresponding period a year earlier, many other states and territories experienced far larger decreases in visitor expenditure.
Figure 12: Visitor Expenditure by Type, South Australia
Note: Year ending June
Source: Tourism Research Australia
Table 3: Domestic Overnight Visitor Expenditure ($m) (June quarter 2025)
Note: June quarter 2025
Source: Tourism Research Australia
The latest visitor data for the year ending June quarter 2025 show declines in intrastate overnight and international visitation from the prior year, but a solid 7% increase in the high yielding interstate domestic overnight market and also a 6% rise in day-trip visitors
However, visitor nights were down around 3% amongst domestic overnight visitors, but this was offset against a 6% increase to international visitor nights.
Table 4: Visitors and Nights by Type, South Australia (2025)
5-year
Note: Year ending June Source: Tourism Research Australia
Domestic interstate overnight expenditure fell in the year ending June 2025, driven by a sharp decline in overnight yield for this visitor type While the Algal Bloom would have contributed to the headline decline in expenditure, falling yields suggest that after a period of sharp price increases, visitors are no longer able to absorb increases in travel expenses, and are cutting back on expenditure.
Findings from previous Barometers indicate that recent price increases by tourism operators are primarily intended to offset higher business costs, rather than to increase profits.
Table 5: Expenditure and Yield, South Australia, by Type (YE June 2025)
Note: Market share represents the historical market share currently, for the previous year and from three/five years ago
Source: Tourism Research Australia
Note on recent changes to tourism data
Domestic Tourism Statistics (DoTS) is the new Tourism Research Australia (TRA) collection for reporting Australian-resident travel statistics. It started on 1 January 2025, replacing the National Visitor Survey (NVS), which wound up at the end of 2024.
DoTS measures Australian-resident tourism through:
• Mobility data on travel movement;
• Overseas arrivals and departures data on Australians’ outbound travel; and
• Survey data from the new face-to-face and online DoTS Australian-resident travel surveys.
AusTrade has moved to DoTS as the NVS no longer provided a viable data collection option for measuring Australian-resident travel. Australians’ willingness to participate in phone surveys like the NVS had plunged, reducing representativeness and quality. Lower response rates had also made phone surveys more costly.
TRA have stated that the recently released DoTS data only covers domestic overnight travel for the March and June quarters of 2025 reference periods, with data to be progressively added each quarter with the first DoTS rolling annual estimates for 2025 available in March 2026.
TRA also stated that domestic tourism results have been back-cast at the national and state and territory levels for trips, nights and spend, providing a time series back to the year ending March 2020.
Report prepared in partnership with Lucid Economics.
Tourism Industry Council South Australia (TiCSA)
25 Pirie Street
Adelaide SA 5000
Ph: (08) 8110 0123
Email: info@ticsa.com.au
