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THE CLASSIFIEDS

THE FANTASY BASEBALL EXPERIENCE

Robert’s Talent is There, but is He Worth the ADP?

By Tom Barton

The New York Mets traded for talent this week and landed one of the most physically gifted players in baseball when they acquired Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox. The issue with Robert’s talent is that it has not consistently translated into reliable production. While the upside is tantalizing and the Mets clearly needed a center fielder, the reality is that Robert remains an unfinished product, one who should make fantasy managers hesitant. It has often been said that the best ability is availability, and that has been a persistent problem for Robert. He

missed another 52 games last season, meaning he has been sidelined for 35.7 percent of his possible 810 games over the past five years. Two separate hamstring injuries last season are especially concerning for a player whose most consistent statistical contribution has been stolen bases. Robert’s underlying metrics also raise red flags. His average hit rate declined, and he posted a five-year low in contact batting average. He swings and misses at a high rate, striking out on roughly 26 percent of his plate appearances, and he does not walk nearly enough to fully take advantage of his elite speed. Against right-handed pitching, he hit just .211. He

BETTING WITH BARTON

BY TOM BARTON

The stage is set for Super Bowl 2026, as fans will get a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX with the Seahawks facing the Patriots. The opening line, released immediately after Seattle’s conference championship win, listed the Seahawks as 3.5-point favorites. Within the first hour, it was difficult to find many bettors willing to back New England. That reaction may have been quick, but the betting market reflected the same sentiment. Shortly thereafter, the line moved to minus four, and by midnight it had been bet up to minus five.

There was some belief that East Coast sportsbooks would adjust the number back down

to 4.5, but early Monday the line held firm at minus five, with some shops even juicing the over. That movement has led to speculation the number could continue climbing in Seattle’s favor over the next two weeks. If so, the Seahawks could become the largest Super Bowl favorite since Super Bowl XLIII in 2009, when Pittsburgh closed as nearly a touchdown favorite over Arizona.

Seattle has become an easy team for bettors to support, fueled by a compelling storyline surrounding quarterback Sam Darnold and a dominant defense. The Seahawks just eliminated the league’s top offense, a result that

now moves to a less favorable ballpark for home runs, and while the Mets’ lineup is stronger overall, he is unlikely to hit near the team’s premier power bats, which tempers expectations. All of this will still tempt fantasy owners. Robert’s immense upside could lead managers to reach a round or two too early, but he cannot impact games if he is not on base or not in the lineup. He may also see fewer stolen-base opportunities in New York. Robert is a lottery-ticket player who could win leagues with his legs, but as his ADP rises, caution is warranted. In fact, Luisangel Acuña landing in Chicago may prove the better value.

Everything That is Old is New Again

resonates strongly with the betting public. Meanwhile, the Patriots continue to carry the label of the villain, as lingering fatigue remains from their dynasty years under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Critics also point to a perceived soft schedule and a playoff run that included a win over a career backup quarterback. The total opened at 46 1/2 and has held steady. These are two of the best defenses in the NFL and many in the industry believed this would open at closer to 44 total points, but as it has been pointed out quite a few times the public enjoys betting the over, so there is a chance this holds until kickoff.