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January, 2026

THE HOUSING EQUATION

Supply, Demand & Affordability in the Tampa Bay Region Briefing Book | August 2025 This research was made possible with support from JPMorganChase.

Table of Contents 01 Project Overview

02 Key Terms & Definitions

03 Regional Workforce Analysis

04 Housing Supply Summary

05 Affordability Assessment

06 Housing Demand Projections

07 Meeting the Housing Need

08 Housing Toolkit

09 A Path Forward

Appendices

01 Project Overview

PROJECT OVERVIEW

Quantifying housing needs within the Tampa Bay Tri-County Region

▪

In October of 2024, SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC (SB Friedman), in partnership with the University of Florida Shimberg Center for Housing Studies (Shimberg Center) and Intersection Ventures, was engaged by the Tampa Bay Partnership to quantify current and future housing needs within the Tampa Bay Tri-County Region and identify strategies to address these needs.

▪

To inform the study, the Shimberg Center prepared the Tampa Bay Regional Housing Needs Assessment (the “Shimberg Report”) which provides a data foundation of existing conditions.

▪

Intersection Ventures completed an assessment of the current housing development pipeline by area median income (AMI) affordability ranges.

▪

SB Friedman projected future housing demand and synthesized findings with their partners’ works. We also propose strategies based on the findings of this study.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

▪

While several studies have been conducted over the past several years at the county or city level to quantify the shortfall of affordable and attainable units in the region, these studies present an opportunity to align demand projections and lay out a unified understanding of housing needs across the region.

▪

These studies include demographic, housing affordability, and demand projection analyses for the Tampa Bay Tri-County Region as a whole. These studies also highlight the diverse profiles of people, jobs, and housing across the Tri-County Region: Pinellas County’s older population and smaller, denser housing units; Hillsborough County’s younger population and concentrations of employment; and Pasco County’s newer housing stock and more moderate housing costs. At the same time, the analyses show that the three counties share a challenge: closing the housing affordability gap for the region’s workforce in a time of rising costs.

TRI-COUNTY REGION OVERVIEW

The Tampa Bay Tri-County Region consists of Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco counties

▪

The Tampa Bay Tri-County Region (the “Region” or “Tri-County Region”) is composed of three counties: Pasco County, Pinellas County, and Hillsborough County. The report refers to the “Region” when discussing Pasco, Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties combined. The Tri-County Region collectively encompasses over 2,000 square miles of land area in Florida and was home to approximately 3 million residents (1.2 million households) in 2023. In recent years, regional household growth has outpaced the production of new housing units. For example, between 2018 and 2023, the Region added 99,675 households, while producing only 82,000 housing units. Housing costs increased during this period, as the share of households spending more than $1,500 a month on housing costs increased from roughly 25% to 44%.

TRI-COUNTY REGION 3,039,000 Residents PASCO COUNTY 588,800 Residents

PINELLAS COUNTY 960,600 Residents

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY 1,489,600 Residents

Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Esri, Florida Department of Transportation, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

TRI-COUNTY REGION POPULATON & HOUSEHOLDS Approximately half of the Tri-County Region’s population lives in Hillsborough County

▪

In 2023, nearly half of the Tri-County Region’s population (49%) resided in Hillsborough County, the largest county in the Region in terms of land area. Hillsborough County also had a larger average household size in 2023 (2.56) than either Pasco County or Pinellas County.

▪

Pinellas County, in contrast, has the smallest land area of the three counties, despite accounting for nearly 32% of the Region’s population in 2023. With an area of only 280 square miles, Pinellas County has a substantially greater population density than Hillsborough and Pasco Counties. Households also tend to be smaller, with an average household size of 2.22 persons per household.

▪

Despite its moderate geographic size, Pasco County has the lowest population density in the Region, with only 788 people per square mile. It is home to 19% of the Region’s population and households. The average household size in Pasco County is comparable to Hillsborough County, with 2.53 persons per household. POPULATION [1]

HOUSEHOLDS

AREA (SQUARE MILES)

AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE

POPULATION DENSITY (PEOPLE PER SQ. MI.)

TRI-COUNTY REGION

3,038,957

1,223,100

2,049

2.44

1,483

HILLSBOROUGH

1,489,634

569,998

1,023

2.56

1,456

PINELLAS

960,565

423,242

280

2.22

3,431

PASCO

588,758

229,860

747

2.53

788

[1] In general, tables and charts in this report list the three counties in descending order by population. In some cases, the counties are ordered by indicator value. Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Esri, Florida Department of Transportation, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

02 Key Terms & Definitions

AREA MEDIAN INCOME

In 2023, the AMI for a four-person household in the MSA was $89,400

Throughout the report, household income and unit affordability are described as percentages of area median income (AMI). AMI percentages form the basis of income and rent limits for affordable housing programs, including Florida Housing Finance Corporation (Florida Housing) programs and many local initiatives. Dollar amounts corresponding to AMI percentages are adjusted for metropolitan area and household size. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and Florida Housing publish AMI-based rent and income limits each year. The limits are the same across the three counties based on the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA. TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG-CLEARWATER, FL MSA 2023 INCOME RANGES BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE One-Person Two People

2.44 = Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Metro Area Average Household Size

Three People Four People Five People Six People $0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

<30% AMI

$50,000

30-60% AMI

$60,000 60-80% AMI

$70,000

$80,000

80-100% AMI

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

100-120% AMI

[1] 2023 Income Limits used to align with 2023 ACS data used in analysis Source: Florida Housing Finance Corporation, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

AREA MEDIAN INCOME Average Income for Sample Jobs

0-30% AMI FOUR PERSON HOUSEHOLD INCOME MAXIMUM

30-60% AMI

$30,000

60-80% AMI

$52,150

$40,520

AVERAGE INCOME FOR SAMPLE JOBS (ONE PERSON)

$29,830

Waiters & Waitresses

$69,500

$64,270

School Bus Drivers

80-100% AMI

Paralegals & Legal Assistants

$56,090

Firefighters

100-120% AMI

$89,400

$82,320

Real Estate Sales Agents

$104,280

$104,310

Registered Nurses

$76,150

>120% AMI

Electrical Engineers

$95,210

Web Developers

[1] Wages are shown as the average annual salary across the Tampa MSA by occupation. Some jobs may exist with lower wages, or workers may work part-time. Source: BLS OEWS (May 2023), Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

AFFORDABLE HOUSING DEFINITIONS

“Affordable housing” includes legally restricted & naturally occurring affordable units AFFORDABLE HOUSING LEGALLY RESTRICTED AFFORDABLE HOUSING (LRAH) ▪

▪

Housing contractually bound to serve households at specific income levels. Units are typically funded, owned and operated by mission-driven organizations including local governments, nonprofits and more. Income targets are often tied to sources of funds. ▪ Most state and federal sources target households earning 60% AMI or less. ▪ Some local (county and municipal) programs serve households earning up to 120% AMI.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

MARKET-RATE HOUSING

NATURALLY OCCURRING AFFORDABLE HOUSING (NOAH) ▪ ▪ ▪

▪

Privately owned units that offer affordable rents for households at 80% AMI or below. Affordable is defined as less than 30% of the occupant’s household income Lower-cost due to age, building quality, location, condition, and/or historically inequitable housing policies like redlining Units may be vulnerable to affordability loss

MARKET-RATE HIGHER-COST HOUSING ▪

Privately owned units that are not affordable to households earning under 80% AMI

03 Regional Workforce Analysis

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

The Tri-County Region has added nearly 365,000 jobs since 2010

▪

In 2024, the Tri-County Region was home to approximately 1.5 million jobs, a roughly 33% increase in jobs since 2010. Of the approximately 365,000 jobs added, nearly 65% were in Hillsborough County. Pasco County’s workforce increased by nearly 54% between 2010 and 2024, outpacing the growth rate of other counties. The number of total jobs in the Region declined during the COVID-19 pandemic but has since recovered and now exceeds pre-pandemic counts.

+365,000

TRI-COUNTY REGION

+236,000

HILLSBOROUGH

+76,000

PINELLAS

+53,000

PASCO 0.M

0.2M

0.4M

Total Jobs in 2010

0.6M

0.8M

1.M

1.2M

1.4M

TOTAL JOB GROWTH INDEX SINCE 2010 1.6

Growth Since 2010

COVID-19

1.5

54%

1.4

1.3

39% 33%

1.2

19%

1.1 1.0 0.9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Tri-County Region

Hillsborough County

Pinellas County

Pasco County

[1]

REGIONAL SHARE

PERCENT INCREASE

COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (CAGR)

TRI-COUNTY REGION

33%

2.1%

PASCO

15%

54%

3.1%

HILLSBOROUGH

65%

39%

2.4%

PINELLAS

21%

19%

1.3%

Jobs Added from 2010-2024

[1] Counties ordered by percent increase Source: Lightcast, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

EMPLOYMENT BASE

16% of jobs in the Tri-County Region are in Education, Healthcare & Social Assistance

▪

Jobs within the Tri-County Region fall into a variety of employment sectors. In 2024, the largest employment sector was Education, Health Care & Social Assistance, accounting for 16% of the workforce in the Tri-County Region. Together with Retail & Wholesale Trade, these employment sectors account for roughly 30% of the jobs in the Tri-County Region. At the county level, Education, Health Care & Social Assistance and Retail and Wholesale Trade account for 40% of Pasco County’s employment base, compared to 28% in Hillsborough County and 30% in Pinellas County. Pasco County also has a smaller share of jobs in Management & Professional Services (5%) than Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties (11% respectively).

EMPLOYMENT BASE (2024) 6% 11%

7% 11%

9% 11% 11% 11%

14%

11%

4% 10%

10%

11%

13%

12%

13%

11%

10%

19% 14%

15%

16%

TRI-COUNTY REGION

HILLSBOROUGH

PINELLAS

Manufacturing

13%

12%

16%

Government

Construction

5% 11%

Other Industries

21%

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Entertainment & Accommodation Management & Professional Services Administration & Other Services Retail & Wholesale Trade Education, Health Care & Social Assistance

PASCO

Source: Lightcast, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

ECONOMIC CLUSTERS

Regional economies consist of traded (primary) and local (secondary) clusters

▪

Regional economies can be categorized into economic clusters or industry groups. A cluster is a regional concentration of related industries. Regional economies are made up of two types of clusters, each with different patterns of geographic presence and different competitive dynamics. ▪

Traded clusters, also known as primary job clusters, are groups of related industries that export products/serve markets beyond the region in which they are located. Since primary clusters compete in cross-regional markets, they are exposed to competition from other regions. Typically, approximately 30% of jobs in a geography are within primary clusters. ▪

▪

Local clusters, also known as secondary job clusters, consist of industries that serve the local market. They are found in every region of the country, regardless of the competitive position of a particular location. A region’s employment in secondary clusters is usually proportional to the population of that region. ▪

▪

Examples: Local Government, Real Estate, Schools & Hospitals

Location quotients (LQ) quantify the specialization of a region’s industry compared to national employment averages. High location quotients are typically indicative of high-export businesses. Of the largest industry clusters, Tri-County Region has the highest employment concentrations and specializations within the following sectors: ▪ ▪ ▪

▪

Examples: Business Services, Financial Services, Hospitality & Tourism, Manufacturing, Transportation & Warehousing

Insurance Services (LQ=2.34) Legal Services (LQ=1.68) Business Services (LQ=1.33)

The predominant traded clusters in the Tri-County Region are illustrated on page 15.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

TRI-COUNTY REGION TOP TRADED CLUSTERS AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY, LIVESTOCK & MINING

2.5

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY KNOWLEDGE, RESEARCH & HEALTHCARE

MANUFACTURING PROFESSIONAL, BUSINESS & CONSUMER SERVICES

2.0

TOURISM & ENTERTAINMENT TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING & UTILITIES

Location Quotient

Sectors in the top right quadrant demonstrate both regional specialization and growth

1.5

Insurance Services

Bubble Size = Job Counts 3,358 up to 167,466

Legal Services

Engineering Services Hospitality and Tourism

Financial Services

Business Services Life Sciences

Marketing, Design, and Publishing

Percent Job Growth (2010-2024) -60%

-40%

Construction Products and Services

Performing Arts

Information Technology

1.0

-20%

20%

40%

60% Healthcare

80%

Analytical Instruments Manufacturing

Agricultural Inputs and Services

0.5

100%

120%

Transportation and Logistics

Distribution and Electronic Commerce Education and Knowledge Creation Aerospace Vehicles and Defense

Production Technology and Heavy Machinery

Food Processing and Manufacturing

0.0 Source: Lightcast, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

TARGET INDUSTRIES

Economic development entities target attracting specific industry clusters to the region

▪

Economic development entities in each county identify target industries or economic clusters to prioritize business attraction and retainment efforts. Target industries typically include high-growth and/or high-wage sectors, export-oriented industries, and sectors that have the potential to attract or create additional high-wage businesses. A target industry strategy can focus economic development efforts and build on existing supply chains, institutional assets and infrastructure. There is significant competition for higher-wage, export-oriented jobs that are sought after by communities nationwide. Throughout the region, employers in key sectors have expressed concern regarding the availability of housing products for new employees, particularly for households earning 80-120% AMI. Without the availability of affordable housing, employees may have to live elsewhere in the region, increasing commute times. In some cases, employers may choose to locate elsewhere to be closer to their desired workforce. Thus, the availability of housing that is affordable to the workforce at a variety of income levels is a key component to attract target industries and bolster the region’s economy. Understanding the composition of the region’s workforce, including industry clusters, geographic specializations, wages, and growth trends, sheds light on the current and potential future housing opportunities and challenges within the region.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

REGIONAL TARGET INDUSTRIES[1]

CORPORATE HQ AVIATION / AEROSPACE / DEFENSE / SECURITY DISTRIBUTION & LOGISTICS BUSINESS, FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

LIFE SCIENCES / HEALTHCARE / MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY MANUFACTURING

[1] Includes target industries identified by the Tampa Bay Economic Development Corporation, Pinellas County Economic Development and Pasco Economic Development Council

TRI-COUNTY REGION TOP TRADED CLUSTERS Hospitality and Tourism was the largest traded cluster in 2024 TOP 15 TRADED CLUSTERS BY TOTAL JOBS TRADED CLUSTER [1,2]

TOTAL JOBS (2024)

Hospitality and Tourism

REGIONAL SHARE OF TOTAL JOBS [3]

JOB GROWTH (2010-2024)

AVERAGE WAGES

HILLSBOROUGH

PINELLAS

PASCO

167,466

49%

38%

12%

43%

$37,052

Business Services

74,688

54%

41%

57%

$111,357

Healthcare

71,234

56%

32%

13%

43%

$82,187

Distribution and Electronic Commerce

50,473

71%

23%

65%

$99,134

Education and Knowledge Creation

36,185

70%

20%

15%

$70,374

Information Technology

33,198

69%

27%

98%

$146,321

Insurance Services

31,046

80%

19%

51%

$117,300

Life Sciences

27,250

59%

37%

69%

$99,828

Financial Services

22,619

57%

39%

$156,264

Legal Services

16,913

70%

25%

21%

$124,914

Transportation and Logistics

14,555

76%

17%

88%

$79,894

Marketing, Design, and Publishing

14,546

40%

54%

11%

$101,440

Engineering Services

13,213

84%

12%

48%

$124,377

Construction Products and Services

9,526

60%

18%

22%

72%

$99,042

Agricultural Inputs and Services

7,783

82%

13%

-48%

$41,668

[1] Highlighted industry clusters reflect regional target industries listed on page 16. [2] Analysis only considers traded clusters and therefore excludes local clusters, such as local government and other public sector jobs [3] Due to rounding, the regional share of jobs in the three counties may not sum to 100% Source: Lightcast, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

TRI-COUNTY REGION TOP TRADED CLUSTERS

Information Technology was the fastest growing traded cluster between 2010 and 2024 TOP 15 TRADED CLUSTERS BY JOB GROWTH REGIONAL SHARE OF TOTAL JOBS [3] HILLSBOROUGH

PINELLAS

PASCO

JOB GROWTH (2010-2024)

33,198

69%

27%

98%

$146,321

Transportation and Logistics

14,555

76%

17%

88%

$79,894

Construction Products and Services

9,526

60%

18%

22%

72%

$99,042

Life Sciences

27,250

59%

37%

69%

$99,828

Distribution and Electronic Commerce

50,473

72%

23%

65%

$99,134

Business Services

74,688

54%

41%

57%

$111,357

Insurance Services

31,046

80%

19%

51%

$117,300

Engineering Services

13,213

84%

12%

48%

$124,377

Healthcare

71,234

56%

32%

13%

43%

$82,187

Hospitality and Tourism

167,466

49%

38%

12%

43%

$37,052

Performing Arts

3,358

65%

30%

36%

$65,574

Food Processing and Manufacturing

5,842

67%

25%

32%

$79,829

Prod. Technology & Heavy Machinery

5,532

37%

51%

13%

31%

$102,110

Analytical Instruments Manufacturing

5,492

23%

74%

22%

$148,061

Legal Services

16,913

70%

25%

21%

$124,914

TRADED CLUSTER [1,2]

TOTAL JOBS (2024)

Information Technology

AVERAGE WAGES

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

TRI-COUNTY REGION TOP TRADED CLUSTERS Many of the largest traded clusters include regional target industries

▪

Hospitality and Tourism is the largest traded cluster in the TriCounty Region, with a total of nearly 167,500 jobs in 2024. It is also among the top fastest growing clusters, with employment having grown 43% from 2010 to 2024. With an average wage of about $37K, employees fall within the 30-60% AMI income limit for a 4-person household. This is substantially lower than that of the other top clusters.

▪

Information Technology was the fastest growing cluster in the Tri-County Region from 2010 to 2024, experiencing a 98% increase in jobs. Its average wage of around $146K exceeds the 120% AMI income limit for a 4-person household.

▪

Many of the largest and/or fastest-growing traded clusters fall within one of five regional target industries: (1) Distribution & Logistics, (2) Business, Financial & Professional Services, (3) Information Technology, (4) Life Sciences / Healthcare / Medical Technology and (5) Manufacturing. The average wage for these clusters ranged from $80K-$156K in 2024.

▪

Wages within a given industry can range widely and often span across different AMI levels. As such, an industry’s average wage does not necessarily reflect the breadth of wages among employees in that industry.

▪

Even economic clusters with an average wage above the area median income may still include many lower-wage jobs. Therefore, housing affordability at all levels is important to attracting and retaining target industries.

[1] Includes target industries identified by the Tampa Bay Economic Development Corporation, Pinellas County Economic Development and Pasco Economic Development Council Source: Lightcast, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

WAGES & HOUSING COSTS

In recent years, wages in the Tri-County Region have not kept up with the cost of housing

▪

According to the Shimberg Report, wage growth in the Region in recent years did not keep up with pace of rising housing costs. From 2018-2023, the median rent for new leases increased by 48%, from $1,041 to $1,537. During this same period, the median hourly wage only increased by 29% (from $17.27 to $22.32). According to the Shimberg Report, retail, accommodation and food services—some of the region’s largest industries—have average wages below what is needed to afford a twobedroom unit at Fair Market Rent [1]. In 2023, a household in the Region would have to earn $66,360 per year, to afford the two-bedroom Fair Market Rent of $1,659.

AFFORDABLE MONTHLY RENT RANGES BY OCCUPATION, 2023 [2]

$500-699

$700-899

$900-1,200

Waiters and Waitresses

Nursing Assistants

Painters

Cashiers

Cooks

Dental Assistants

Farmworkers

Hairdressers

Roofers

Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers

Substitute Teachers

Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers

Childcare Workers

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers

Light Truck Drivers

Child, Family, and School Social Workers

Construction Laborers

Bus Drivers

Janitors

Customer Service Representatives

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Retail Salespersons

Pharmacy Technicians

Carpenters

Preschool Teachers

Office Clerks

Auto Mechanics

Hotel Desk Clerks

Medical Assistants

Paramedics

Security Guards

Veterinary Technologists and Technicians

Licensed Practical Nurses

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants

Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters

Tellers

Paralegals and Legal Assistants

Home Health and Personal Care Aides Maids and Housekeepers

Receptionists and Information Clerks

Electricians

[1] Fair Market Rents are established by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and reflect the 40th percentile gross rents for standard quality units within a metropolitan area [2] Affordable rents by occupation are based on the monthly affordable rent at median wage; that is, the amount a full-time worker earning the median wage would pay if their rent were exactly 30% of income. Source: Shimberg Center, “Tampa Bay Regional Housing Needs Assessment,” SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

REGIONAL WORKFORCE ANALYSIS SUMMARY

Units affordable at a range of income levels are needed to support the region’s workforce

▪

There has been steady job growth in the Tri-County Region since 2010, and the total number of jobs has surpassed pre-pandemic totals. While Hillsborough County—the most populous county in the region—gained the most jobs, Pasco County experienced the fastest job growth.

▪

Seven out of the fifteen largest traded clusters in the Tri-County Region, and nine of the fifteen fastest growing clusters, fall within the regional target industries. The average wage for most of the largest and fastest growing clusters in the Tri-County Region fall within or above the 100% AMI income limit for a 4-person household. However, wages within a given industry can range widely and often span across different AMI levels. Even industries with an average wage above the area median income may still include many lower-wage jobs. Housing affordability at all levels is important to attracting and retaining target industries.

▪

Some major industry clusters have lower average wages. ▪

▪

Transportation and Logistics; Food Processing and Manufacturing; Education and Knowledge Creation; and Performing Arts are all large and/or fastgrowing industry clusters whose average wage falls within 80-100% AMI. The average wage for these industry clusters ranges from $65K to $80K, approximately. Hospitality and Tourism is the largest economic cluster in terms of total jobs both at the county-level as well as at a regional level. Although it is not a target industry, it is among some of the fastest growing clusters in the region. With an average wage of approximately $37K, employees fall within the 30-60% AMI income limit for a 4-person household. Given the size of the cluster, there should be strategies targeted to support housing for households earning 30-60% AMI.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

04 Housing Supply Summary

OVERALL HOUSING STOCK SNAPSHOT

Single-family homes make up approximately 63% of the Tri-County Region’s housing units

▪

In 2023, there were approximately 1,304,000 housing units in the Tri-County Region. The Region’s housing supply is predominantly composed of single-family homes (63% of the Region’s homes). Multifamily and condominium units account for 21% and 12% of the Region’s homes, respectively. Pasco County has an outsized presence of single-family and mobile homes compared to Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. Together, these housing types comprise around 86% of Pasco County’s housing supply. In contrast, multifamily and condominium units together account for at least a third of the housing stock in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties.

HOUSING COMPOSITION, 2023 TRI-COUNTY REGION

63%

HILLSBOROUGH

65%

PINELLAS

21%

53%

PASCO

25%

22%

74%

Single-Family

12%

Multifamily

Condominium

22%

12%

Mobile Home

Source: SB Friedman, Shimberg Center tabulation of Florida Department of Revenue, Name/Address/Legal File

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

SINGLE-FAMILY PERMITS

Approximately 109,000 single-family permits were issued between 2016 and 2023 TRI-COUNTY REGION SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING PERMITS, 2000-2023

25,000

Hillsborough Pinellas Tri-County Region Hillsborough

Pasco Pinellas

2008

2013

Pasco

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN UNITS

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009

2010

2011

2012

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2000-2006

2007-2015

2016-2023

REGION

+17,042

+5,835

+13,656

HILLSBOROUGH

+9,668

+3,886

+7,294

PINELLAS

+1,977

+533

+1,012

PASCO

+5,397

+1,416

+5,350

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

[1] Single-family refers to structures with one unit and includes both detached and attached housing. Permits are for new construction and, therefore, do not include the rehabilitation of existing housing units Source: US Census Bureau, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

MULTIFAMILY PERMITS

Approximately 56,000 multifamily units were permitted between 2016 and 2023 TRI-COUNTY REGION MULTIFAMILY HOUSING PERMITS, 2000-2023

25,000

Tri-County Region Hillsborough Pinellas Pinellas Pasco Hillsborough

Pasco

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN UNITS

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2000-2006

2007-2015

2016-2023

REGION

+6,006

+3,971

+7,050

HILLSBOROUGH

+3,554

+2,408

+5,185

PINELLAS

+1,262

+908

+1,477

PASCO

+1,191

+655

+388

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

[1] Multifamily refers to all structures with two or more units. Permits are for new construction and, therefore, do not include the rehabilitation of existing housing units Source: US Census Bureau, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS

Approximately 166,000 units were permitted in the Tri-County Region from 2016 to 2023

▪

From 2016 through 2023, approximately 109,000 single-family home permits were issued in the Tri-County Region, averaging roughly 14,000 per year. After experiencing a period of more limited permitting between 2006 and 2016, permits have gradually trended back up, beginning to reach the levels of years prior to the 2008 recession. Hillsborough and Pasco Counties have consistently had greater shares of building permits, with an annual average of roughly 7,000 and 5,000 single-family building permits respectively between 2016 and 2023. With limited greenfield sites, Pinellas County has consistently had more limited single-family building permitting, with only about 1,000 annual permits during the same period. TOTAL SINGLE-FAMILY PERMITS ISSUED (2016-2023)

109,000 TRI-COUNTY REGION

58,000

HILLSBOROUGH

8,000 PINELLAS

43,000 PASCO

▪

From 2016 through 2023, approximately 56,000 multifamily units were permitted in the Tri-County Region, averaging roughly 7,000 per year. Multifamily building permits trended upward during this period, with some of the highest annual permitting occurring in 2019, 2022 and 2023. From 2016 to 2023, nearly 41,000 multifamily units were permitted in Hillsborough County, accounting for approximately 73% of the multifamily units permitted in the Tri-County Region during that period. In contrast, the number of multifamily units permitted in Pasco County has largely declined since 2000. This is likely in part due to the moratorium on multifamily development in recent years.

TOTAL MULTIFAMILY PERMITS ISSUED (2016-2023)

56,000 TRI-COUNTY REGION

41,000

HILLSBOROUGH

12,000 PINELLAS

3,000 PASCO

Source: US Census Bureau, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

FOR-SALE SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SNAPSHOT Single-family home prices are back to mid-2000s-boom levels

▪

In recent years, half of single-family homes sold for $300,000$500,000 in the Tri-County Region. Only 23% sold for under $300,000. On average, single-family homes in Pinellas County are more expensive, with 35% selling for greater than $500,000. Single-family homes are on average less expensive in Pasco County; 60% of homes in the county sold for below $400,000.

$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000

$100,000 2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

Pinellas

Pasco

2023 (Partial)

Hillsborough

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

As median home prices climbed between 2019 and 2022, sales of lower-priced homes became rare. In 2019, 30 percent of single-family homes in the Region sold for less than $200,000. In 2022 and the first half of 2023, only 5% of sales were less than $200,000.

MEDIAN SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICE[1]

2001

▪

In 2022, the last full year for which data are available, the median single-family home price was $406,000 in Hillsborough County, $379,000 in Pasco County, and $426,500 in Pinellas County.

2000

▪

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES VOLUME BY PRICE[2] TRI-COUNTY REGION

HILLSBOROUGH

16%

PINELLAS 4%

14%

PASCO

18%

30% 33% 27%

24%

<$200K

$200-299K

20%

27%

21%

26%

20% 28%

$300-399K

$400-499K

35% 19%

21%

$500,000+

[1] Prices shown are in 2023 dollars. Data is from 2000 through the first two quarters of 2023. [2] Sales from 2022 and first two quarters of 2023. Source: SB Friedman, Shimberg Center tabulation of Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

FOR-SALE CONDO SNAPSHOT

Condominium prices have also increased, but prices vary more across the counties

▪

$250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000

Pasco

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Pinellas

2023 (Partial)

Hillsborough

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

Between 2017 and 2022, though median prices across all counties experienced a substantial increase in median price, Pasco County’s median prices rose especially rapidly at a 14% CAGR. However, Pasco County’s median price remained substantially lower compared to Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties over the same period.

$300,000

2002

▪

Condominium prices in all three counties have gradually been returning to pre-2010 levels over the past several years.

MEDIAN CONDOMINIUM PRICE[1]

2001

▪

In the beginning of 2023, the median price of a condominium was $239,900 in Hillsborough County, $260,000 in Pinellas County, and $163,000 in Pasco County.

2000

▪

Pinellas County has continued to have the highest median condo price since 2010.

[1] Prices shown are in 2023 dollars. Data is from 2000 through Q2 of 2023. Source: SB Friedman, Shimberg Center tabulation of Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

RENTAL HOUSING SNAPSHOT

Rents in the Tri-County Region have increased substantially over the past decade

▪

In 2022, there were approximately 410,000 rental units in the Tri-County Region, a nearly 35,000 net unit increase from 2012. From 2012 to 2022, the number of units renting for $1,200 or less declined by nearly 82,000, while the number of units renting for more than $1,200 grew by nearly 117,000. The shift from less expensive to more expensive units stems from several causes, including rent increases in lower-cost units, new construction of units with higher rents, and demolition of older housing units. In 2022, the median rent for new leases in all three counties increased significantly compared to prior years. Median rent for new leases increased by 32% in Hillsborough County, 30% in Pinellas County, and 27% in Pasco County. Median rents declined slightly in subsequent years but remained significantly higher than above pre-2022 prices.

TRI-COUNTY REGION UNITS BY RENTS ±$1,200 [1] 400,000 MORE THAN $1,200

300,000

MORE THAN $1,200

200,000 100,000

$1,200 OR LESS

0 2012

2022

TRI-COUNTY REGION MEDIAN RENT FOR NEW LEASES [2] $1,600 $1,400 $1,200

$1,000 $800

$600 $400 $200 $0 2017

2018

2019

2020

Hillsborough

2021 Pinellas

2022

2023

2024

Pasco

[1] Units placed in rent categories based on $1,200 threshold in 2022 dollars. The threshold in the 2012 portion of the graph is $941 in nominal dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers (CPI-U). [2] Estimated median rent for new leases signed by renters in January of each year. Source: SB Friedman, Shimberg Center tabulation of ACS PUMS 2018-2022 and rent estimates from Apartment List

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

RENTAL MULTIFAMILY HOME SNAPSHOT

Over 70,690 multifamily units have been built in the Tri-County Region since 2015

▪

Approximately 70,690 new multifamily units have been added to the Region since 2015. Nearly 55% of these units were delivered in Hillsborough County. Most new developments are clustered in urban areas and/or around highways and other major transportation corridors throughout the Region.

NEW CONSTRUCTION MULTIFAMILY BUILT SINCE 2015 Hudson

PASCO COUNTY Dade City

In 2024, there was an average $474 effective rent premium for new multifamily units within the Region. At $1,830 per month, average effective rent for new units in Pasco County were substantially less than for new units in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties.

Lutz

PINELLAS COUNTY Clearwater

Tampa

AVERAGE EFFECTIVE RENT IN 2024 COUNTY

ALL UNITS

PER UNIT | PER SF

Riverview

BUILT POST-2015 PER UNIT | PER SF

Tri-County Region

$1,732 | $1.87

$2,206 | $2.22

Hillsborough

$1,748 | $1.88

$2,250 | $2.31

Pinellas

$1,763 | $1.97

$2,495 | $2.60

Pasco

$1,577 | $1.59

$1,830 | $1.70

Zephyrhills

Land O’ Lakes

St. Petersburg

RBA

Apollo Beach

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY

<100,000 SF 100,000+ SF

Source: CoStar, Esri, Florida Department of Transportation, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

05 Affordability Assessment

TRI-COUNTY REGION HOUSEHOLD INCOME

Households earning more than 80% AMI represent a larger share of owners than renters

▪

Two-thirds of homeowners in the Tri-County Region earn at least 80% AMI. Pasco County has a slightly smaller share, with 61% of homeowners earning at least 80% AMI. In contrast, renter households in the Tri-County Region are nearly evenly split between households earning above and below 80% AMI (49% and 51% respectively). Hillsborough County has a larger share of households earning less than 60% AMI than Pinellas and Pasco Counties.

OWNER HOUSEHOLDS BY AMI, 2023 TRI-COUNTY REGION

10%

14%

HILLSBOROUGH

10%

12%

PINELLAS

15%

PASCO

12%

<30% AMI

10% 9%

19% 18%

11%

15%

51% 20%

12%

30-60% AMI

47%

45%

20%

60-80% AMI

41%

80-120% AMI

>120% AMI

RENTER HOUSEHOLDS BY AMI, 2023 TRI-COUNTY REGION

19%

HILLSBOROUGH

21%

20% 20%

13%

22%

26%

12%

22%

26%

PINELLAS

15%

22%

12%

PASCO

16%

20%

15%

<30% AMI

30-60% AMI

60-80% AMI

23% 23% 80-120% AMI

28% 25% >120% AMI

Source: SB Friedman, Shimberg Center tabulation of ACS PUMS 2019-2023

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

CURRENT AFFORDABLE OWNER HOUSING DEFICIT

There is a deficit of about 80,650 units affordable for households earning less than 80% AMI TRI-COUNTY REGION OWNER HOUSEHOLDS & HOME VALUES BY AMI LEVEL 450,000 400,000

Number of Owner Housing Units Affordable in the AMI Range

Number of Owner Households in the AMI Range

+ 42,610 Unit Surplus

350,000 300,000 250,000

Lower-income households have limited options and are forced into housing that exceeds their price range

200,000 150,000

– 20,910 Unit Deficit

More affluent households occupy housing that is affordable to lower income levels, further constraining the housing market

+ 38,040 Unit Surplus – 47,730 Unit Deficit

100,000

– 12,010 Unit Deficit

50,000 0 Max Home Price

<30% <30% AMI

30-60% 30-60% AMI

60-80% 60-80% AMI

80-120% 80-120% AMI

120% AMI + 120%+

Hillsborough

$79,900

$150,700

$200,900

$301,800

>$301,800

Pasco

$83,400

$157,400

$209,900

$315,400

>$315,400

Pinellas

$81,800

$154,300

$205,800

$309,100

>$309,100

[1] Income bands correspond roughly to 2023 AMI levels. Analysis assumes a 3-person household. [2] Affordable costs limit assumes that mortgage, insurance, and all other housing costs are ≤30% of income for a household at the top of a respective income range, given the household size assumption. Due to differences in homeowner costs by county, the maximum affordable home price varies slightly from county to county. Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Florida Housing Finance Corporation, SB Friedman, Zillow

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

CURRENT AFFORDABLE OWNER HOUSING DEFICIT

There is a deficit of about 80,650 units affordable for households earning less than 80% AMI

▪

Most owner-occupied housing units are higher-cost units only affordable to households earning more than 120% AMI. Many homeowners in the Region with lower incomes are therefore living in homes that would not be affordable to them, were they to purchase it today. There is an approximately 80,650-unit deficit for households earning less than 80% AMI. ▪

▪

This is the estimated existing affordable housing deficit for for-sale housing in the Tri-County Region. It does not address potential affordability issues based on projected future housing demand.

EXISTING REGIONAL HOUSING GAP – OWNER-OCCUPIED UNITS Number of Households in Range

Number of Housing Units Affordable in Range

Housing Deficit (Surplus)

<30% AMI

96,620

75,710

20,910

30-60% AMI

115,960

68,230

47,730

60-80% AMI

82,110

70,100

12,010

80-120% AMI

144,090

182,130

(38,040)

120%+ AMI

376,740

419,350

(42,610)

The true housing need for lower-income households is likely even higher. Many people who work lower-wage jobs in the Tri-County Region cannot currently afford to live in the Region or near their place of work. Additionally, some renter households may want to own a home in the region, but are unable to do so due to the cost. The above number therefore represents a conservative estimate of unmet need.

[1] Income bands correspond roughly to 2023 AMI levels. Analysis assumes a 3-person household. [2] Affordable costs limit assumes that mortgage, insurance, and all other housing costs are ≤30% of income for a household at the top of a respective income range, given the household size assumption. Due to differences in homeowner costs by county, the maximum affordable home price varies slightly from county to county. For illustrative purposes, the maximum affordable price for Hillsborough County is shown here. Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Florida Housing Finance Corporation, SB Friedman, Zillow

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

CURRENT AFFORDABLE OWNER HOUSING DEFICIT

Hillsborough County accounts for 53% of the Tri-County Region’s owner housing unit deficit

▪

Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties fall short on for-sale units affordable to households earning less than 80% AMI. The affordability gap is greatest for for-sale units affordable to 30% to 60% AMI, which includes nearly 23,700 units in Hillsborough County and about 17,900 in Pinellas County. Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties also have substantial gaps in for-sale housing affordable to households earning less than 30% AMI (about 12,000 and 8,500 units, respectively).

EXISTING HOUSING GAP – OWNER-OCCUPIED UNITS COUNTY

<30% AMI

30-60% AMI

60-80% AMI

Tri-County Region

20,910

47,730

12,010

Hillsborough

12,010

23,680

7,430

Pinellas

8,510

17,910

4,610

Pasco

390

6,140

-30

In contrast, Pasco County does not have a gap in for-sale units affordable to households earning 60% to 80% AMI. Its largest existing housing gap (around 6,140 units) is in for-sale units affordable to households earning 30% to 60% AMI. Pasco County is only short less than 400 for-sale units affordable to households earning less than 30% AMI. Pasco County accounts for about 10% of the regional gap in for-sale units affordable to households earning less than 60% AMI, despite being home to about 19% of the Region’s population.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

CURRENT AFFORDABLE RENTAL HOUSING DEFICIT

There is a deficit of about 69,360 units affordable for households earning less than 60% AMI TRI-COUNTY REGION RENTER HOUSEHOLDS & UNIT RENTS BY AMI LEVEL 250,000

Number of Renter Housing Units Affordable in the AMI Range

Number of Renter Households in the AMI Range + 101,160 Unit Surplus

200,000

150,000

Lower-income households have limited options and are forced into housing that exceeds their price range

– 48,840 Unit Deficit 100,000

– 20,520 Unit Deficit

– 62,120 Unit Deficit

+ 38,970 Unit Surplus

50,000

0 Rent Limits

<30% AMI

30-60% AMI

60-80% AMI

80-120% AMI

120%+ AMI

Studio

$456

$913

$1,216

$1,827

>$1,827

1-BR

$521

$1,043

$1,390

$2,088

>$2,088

2-BR

$622

$1,173

$1,564

$2,349

>$2,349

3-BR+

$750

$1,304

$1,738

$2,607

>$2,607

More affluent households occupy housing that is affordable to lower income levels, further constraining the housing market

[1] Household and unit counts exclude student-headed, non-family households. Rental units exclude substandard units (no fuel or lacking complete kitchen or plumbing). [2] Income bands correspond roughly to 2023 AMI levels. Affordable rent amount assumes that rent is ≤30% of household income for a household at the top of the respective income range. Source: Florida Housing Finance Corporation, SB Friedman, Shimberg Center analysis of ACS PUMS 2019-2023

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

CURRENT AFFORDABLE RENTAL HOUSING DEFICIT

There is a deficit of about 69,360 units affordable for households earning less than 60% AMI

▪

Low-income households living in the Region have limited affordable options and therefore many must often live in housing that exceeds their price range. Meanwhile, more affluent households often occupy housing that is affordable to lower-income levels, further constraining the housing market. There is an approximately 69,360-unit shortfall in units affordable to households earning less than 60% AMI. ▪

▪

This is the estimated existing affordable housing deficit in the TriCounty Region. It does not address potential affordability issues based on projected future housing demand.

EXISTING REGIONAL HOUSING GAP – RENTER-OCCUPIED UNITS Number of Households in Range

Number of Housing Units Affordable in Range

Housing Deficit (Surplus)

<30% AMI

78,670

29,830

48,840

30-60% AMI

86,090

65,570

20,510

60-80% AMI

53,340

92,310

(38,970)

80-120% AMI

94,960

196,120

(101,160)

120%+ AMI

111,270

49,150

62,120

Most rental units are concentrated in the 60-120% AMI affordability ranges, which often forces households earning less than 60% AMI into higher-cost units. Only about 22% of units are affordable to households earning less than 60% AMI although around 39% of households in the Tri-County Region earn less than 60% AMI.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

CURRENT AFFORDABLE RENTAL HOUSING DEFICIT Hillsborough County lacks 43,070 units affordable to households earning less than 60% AMI

▪

Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco Counties all have a substantial shortfall of rental units affordable to households earning less than 30% AMI. In particular, Hillsborough County lacks approximately 32,630 units, which is more than double the gap in Pinellas County (about 11,510 units). Pasco County has a comparably smaller gap of about 4,700 units affordable to households earning less than 30% AMI.

▪

While Hillsborough County accounts for 67% of the region’s shortfall in units affordable to households earning less than 30% AMI, this, in part, reflects Hillsborough County’s higher share of the Tri-County Region’s population (49%).

▪

Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties also have gaps in the number of rental units affordable to householders earning between 30% to 60% AMI, with deficits of approximately 10,440 to 12,980 units, respectively.

EXISTING HOUSING GAP – RENTER-OCCUPIED UNITS COUNTY

<30% AMI

30-60% AMI

Tri-County Region

48,840

20,520

Hillsborough

32,630

10,440

Pinellas

11,520

12,980

Pasco

4,690

(-2,900)

[1] Household and unit counts exclude student-headed, non-family households. Rental units exclude substandard units (no fuel or lacking complete kitchen or plumbing). [2] Income bands correspond roughly to 2023 AMI levels. Affordable rent amount assumes that rent is ≤30% of household income for a household at the top of the respective income range. Source: SB Friedman, Shimberg Center analysis of ACS PUMS 2019-2023

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS

A third of all households in the Tri-County Region are cost-burdened

▪

An increasingly constrained housing market and a limited number of protected affordable units in the Tri-County Region result in a high share of cost-burdened households. ▪ ▪

Cost-burdened households are defined as those spending over 30% of household income on housing costs. Severely cost-burdened households are defined as those spending over 50% of household income on housing costs.

▪

Nearly a quarter of owner households in the Tri-County Region are cost-burdened.

▪

Over half of renter households in the Tri-County Region are cost-burdened to some degree, roughly half of which are severely cost-burdened.

▪

With recent economic factors like inflation, escalating insurance costs, and rising rents, the percentage of costburdened households is likely higher.

TRI-COUNTY REGION OWNER HOUSEHOLDS

24%

Owner Households Cost-Burdened

11%

Owner Households Severely Cost-Burdened

TRI-COUNTY REGION RENTER HOUSEHOLDS

52%

Renter Households Cost-Burdened

26%

Renter Households Severely Cost-Burdened

Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS

Pinellas County has slightly higher rates of cost burden than other counties in the Region

▪

In the Tri-County Region, renter cost-burden has remained relatively constant, though owner cost-burden has decreased in the past decade. Pinellas County has slightly higher rates of cost burden than the other counties in the Tri-County Region. Hillsborough County and Pasco County have similar cost burden rates for both owner-occupied and renter-occupied households.

SHARE OF COST BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Hillsborough County Pasco County Pinellas County

Renter Households Owner Households

Source: ACS 5-Year Estimates, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS

Low-income households and renter households are more likely to be cost-burdened

▪

At all income levels, renter households are more likely than owner households to be cost-burdened.

▪

Nearly 30% of renter households earning below 60% AMI are cost-burdened; 49% are severely cost-burdened.

▪ ▪

Approximately 22% of owner households earning below 60% AMI are cost-burdened; 32% are severely cost-burdened. The share of cost-burdened households by tenure and income level is relatively consistent across the three counties that comprise the Region.

TRI-COUNTY REGION COST-BURDENED OWNERS BY INCOME <30% AMI

49%

30-60% AMI

17%

60-80% AMI

80-120% AMI

120% AMI+

18%

33%

26%

57%

23%

71%

14%

84% 96%

TRI-COUNTY REGION COST-BURDENED RENTERS BY INCOME <30% AMI

68%

30-60% AMI 60-80% AMI

31% 8%

80-120% AMI 120% AMI+

12% 48%

22%

41%

51%

21% 5%

Severely Cost-Burdened

20%

78% 95%

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost-Burdened

Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS

Black households in the Tri-County Region are more likely to be cost-burdened

▪

Black households are cost-burdened at higher rates than households of other races in the Tri-County Region. Approximately 62% of Black renter households are costburdened, and 33% are severely cost-burdened. Nearly a third of Black owner households are cost-burdened. In addition, over half of renters that identify as Hispanic or as Other Race are cost-burdened as well. Asian households are cost-burdened at lower rates compared to households of other races. Approximately 21% of Asian owner households are cost-burdened, while 38% of Asian renter households are cost-burdened. For all races and ethnicities, renter households are more likely than owner households to be cost-burdened.

TRI-COUNTY REGION COST-BURDENED OWNERS BY RACE White

Black Asian

10%

13%

16% 9%

77% 15%

69%

12%

79%

Other Race

12%

16%

72%

Hispanic

12%

16%

72%

TRI-COUNTY REGION COST-BURDENED RENTERS BY RACE White Black

Asian

24%

25%

33% 23%

Other Race

28%

Hispanic

26%

51% 29%

15%

Severely Cost-Burdened

39% 63%

26% 26%

Cost-Burdened

46% 48%

Not Cost-Burdened

[1] Hispanic category includes people of any race that identify as Hispanic.. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

AFFORDABILITY ASSESSMENT SUMMARY

There is a deficit of 110,000+ units affordable to households earning <80% AMI in the Region

▪

The Tri-County Region has an existing deficit of approximately 80,650 for-sale units affordable to households earning 80% AMI or below. The affordability gap is greatest for units affordable to households earning between 30% and 60% AMI. Hillsborough County accounts for 52% (35,690 units) of the Tri-County Region’s deficit in owner-occupied housing units affordable to households earning less than 60% AMI. In contrast, Pasco County accounts for about 10% (6,530 units) of the regional gap in for-sale units affordable to households earning less than 60% AMI, despite being home to roughly 19% of the Region’s population.

▪

The Region has an existing deficit of 69,360 rental units affordable to households earning 60% AMI or below. Hillsborough County accounts for 62% (43,070 units) of this deficit. Throughout the Region, only a small share of rental units are affordable to households earning below 60% AMI, which often forces those households into occupying higher-cost units. While approximately 39% of renter households in the Region earn less than 60% AMI, only 22% of rental units are affordable to these households.

▪

Low-income households in the Region have limited affordable housing options and therefore must often spend more than 30% of their income on housing to stay in the Region. Meanwhile, many more affluent households occupy housing that would be affordable to households at lower income levels, which further constrains the market for affordable units. A third of all households in the Region (408,300 households) are cost-burdened, spending over 30% of their household income on housing costs. Low-income households, renter households and Black households within the Region are more likely to be cost-burdened.

▪

The true housing need for lower-income households in the Tri-County Region is likely even higher than the deficits identified above, as many people who work lower-wage jobs in the Tri-County Region cannot currently afford to live in the Region or near their place of work. The above numbers therefore represent a conservative estimate of unmet need.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

06 Housing Demand Projections

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET CONTEXT

Recent housing production across U.S. metropolitan areas has not kept up with demand

Nationally, housing supply has not kept pace with demand due to market and regulatory factors.

Due in part to chronic undersupply, housing costburden has grown to record levels.

Households are moving to smaller cities and states where housing is more affordable.

Restrictive zoning is limiting supply, along with market factors like land costs in job-rich metros and rising construction costs.

In the Tri-County Region, renter cost-burden has remained relatively constant, though owner cost-burden has decreased in the past decade.

On net, 128 new residents moved to the Tri-County Region each day in 2020, with many of them coming from higher-cost states like Pennsylvania or New York.

General information on demographic and housing trends summarized from several third-party reports. A bibliography of key sources referenced is outlined on page 90.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

MARKET DEMAND CONSIDERATIONS

SB Friedman considered several factors in estimating demand by housing type

▪

SB Friedman prepared housing demand projections for the Tri-County Region. The following key inputs were considered while quantifying future housing demand.

Population Growth

Household Formation

Housing Tenure

Vacancy Rate

Housing Preferences

How fast is the Region growing?

How are living patterns changing?

Do people want to rent or own?

How constrained is the current market?

What sort of housing typologies are desired?

Is homeownership attainable for those that want it?

How many units need to be replaced due to age or condition?

How are those preferences evolving?

Who is moving in?

General information on demographic and housing trends summarized from several third-party reports. A bibliography of key sources referenced is outlined on page 90.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

POPULATION GROWTH

The Tri-County Region’s population increased by 15% between 2013 and 2023

▪

Between 2013 and 2023, the Tri-County Region’s population grew by approximately 15%, adding about 392,840 residents. Nearly 60% of this increase is attributed to new population in Hillsborough County.

POPULATION CHANGE BY CENSUS TRACT, 2013-2023 PASCO COUNTY

Pasco County’s population increased the fastest during this period at a CAGR of 2.3%. In contrast, Pinellas County’s population only grew at a 0.4% CAGR and accounted for only 10% of the growth in the Region’s population.

Hudson Zephyrhills

Land O’ Lakes Lutz

Population growth largely occurred in areas with new greenfield development.

Clearwater

Lost over 750 People Lost 750 to 250 People Lost or Gained up to 250 People Gained 250 to 750 People Gained over 750 People

PINELLAS COUNTY St. Petersburg

Tampa

Riverview Apollo Beach

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY

Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Esri, Florida Department of Transportation, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

POPULATION GROWTH

The Tri-County Region is projected to add 564,000 net new residents by 2035

▪

In 2020, approximately 128 net new residents moved to the Tri-County Region per day. Most of these new residents came from high-cost areas in the Northeast and the Midwest. Those that came from within the state primarily moved from counties in southeastern Florida, such as Palm Beach, MiamiDade and Broward. Residents that left the Tampa Metro to live elsewhere in Florida moved primarily to nearby countries, such as Polk, Hernando, Orange and Manatee Counties. Population growth is a major driver of future housing demand. As a region grows, new housing must be built to accommodate more people. Between 2020 and 2035, the Tri-County Region is projected to grow by an additional 564,000 residents (a 19% increase over 2020 levels).

TRI-COUNTY REGION POPULATION GROWTH

+370,295 POPULATION GROWTH 2010-2020

2,980,760

+564,000

POPULATION 2020 CENSUS

PROJECTED GROWTH 2020-2035

1.3% CAGR [1]

1.2% CAGR [1]

NET ANNUAL MIGRATION TO TRI-COUNTY REGION – TOP STATES New York Pennsylvania New Jersey Illinois

People moving to Tri-County Region

Indiana Montana North Carolina

People leaving Tri-County Region

Colorado Washington Florida -4,000

-2,000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Source: 2010 & 2020 Decennial Census, 2020 ACS 5-Year Estimates, SB Friedman, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research – “Medium” Projections (BEBR) [1] CAGR numbers are shown to better compare historic and projected population growth. The BEBR population projections are based on many different factors and are not derived from simple growth rate calculations.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

POPULATION GROWTH

Rapid growth in residents ages 75+ is projected through 2035

▪

In 2020, the majority of residents in the Tri-County Region were between the ages of 15 and 74. The largest share of residents were in the age 55-74 cohort. The share of residents aged 75+ is projected to experience the most growth between 2020 and 2035, experiencing a 76% increase during that period. The largest share of the population is projected to be in the age 35-54 cohort by 2035, an approximately 19% increase since 2020. The age 15-34 cohort will continue to be the largest age cohort in Hillsborough County, closely followed by a growing share of residents age 35-54. Similarly, although declining in total count, the age 55-74 cohort is projected to remain the largest age cohort in Pinellas County.

TRI-COUNTY REGION – POPULATION BY AGE 1,000,000 800,000

600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2020

2025

2030

2035

COHORT SHARE OF TOTAL POPULATION (DECLINING/INCREASING) 2020

2030

2035

<15

16.1%

16.6%

15-34

24.6%

24.1%

23.6%

35-54

25.3%

24.9%

25.4%

55-74

25.6%

23.5%

22.0%

75+

8.3%

11.0%

12.3%

Source: 2020 Decennial Census, BEBR, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION

The U.S. population is projected to continue aging

Household growth surged nationally during the pandemic, especially among millennials, who had a lower household formation rate than prior generations. Younger households (<35) in the Tri-County Region followed national trends; many have continued to form new households since 2020.

Many newly formed households became homeowners, increasing the homeownership rate; however, this trend is expected to plateau. Between 2019 and 2023, the homeownership rate for younger households (<35) in the Tri-County Region increased by nearly five percentage points.

The US population has been steadily growing older. Over the next couple decades, the fastest growth is projected to be among people aged 75+ as Baby Boomers age. Population growth in the Tri-County Region through 2035 will be mostly driven by increases in residents aged 75+.

General information on demographic and housing trends summarized from several third-party reports. A bibliography of key sources referenced is outlined on page 90.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION

The nuclear family is no longer the dominant household structure

The nuclear family is no longer the dominant household structure in the United States due to declining marriage rates and growth in singleparent households.

Multi-generational households are becoming more prevalent across the country as more young adults are living with their parents longer.

Nationwide, unmarried people are now also less likely to live alone and more likely to live with roommates than in the past.

General information on demographic and housing trends summarized from several third-party reports. A bibliography of key sources referenced is outlined on page 90.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION

Most households in the Tri-County Region consist of one or two people

▪

Approximately two-thirds of all households in the Tri-County Region consist of either one or two people. The average household size in the Tri-County Region is 2.48 persons. More than half of households in the Tri-County Region (51%) are headed by someone under the age of 55. Approximately 70% of households in Hillsborough County are headed by someone under the age of 55, but fewer than half of households in Pinellas and Pasco Counties are headed by someone under the age of 55 (42% and 47% respectively). Approximately 52% of households with householders under the age of 55 consist of either one or two people. Meanwhile, approximately 84% of households with householders ages 55 and older consist of either one or two people.

TRI-COUNTY REGION HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 <35

35-54 1 Person

2 People

55-74 3 People

75+

4+ People

As the county’s population ages, one- and two-person households are projected to account for a greater share of total households, suggesting more demand for smaller units (i.e., 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom units).

Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION

Middle-aged households (35-54) are projected to become the largest age cohort by 2035

▪

Between 2010 and 2020, over 148,000 households were added to the Tri-County Region. Over three-quarters (81%) of net new households added were headed by householders age 55-74. This age cohort grew at an approximately 3.1% CAGR during this period. Through 2035, households ages 75 and up are projected to grow the fastest at an approximate 3.3% CAGR. In addition, households ages 35-54 are projected to become the largest age cohort, accounting for nearly 500,000 households by 2035. While households of all ages are projected to grow in Hillsborough and Pasco Counties through 2035, Pinellas County is projected to lose approximately 6,700 households with householders below age 55 between 2020 and 2035. Households with householders between age 55 and 74 are projected to be the largest age cohort in Pinellas County, totaling to 155,000 households by 2035.

TRI-COUNTY REGION HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010

2015

2020

2025

15-34

35-54

55-74

2030

2035

75+

+148,434

1,227,952

+211,000

HOUSEHOLD CHANGE 2010-2020

HOUSEHOLDS 2020 CENSUS

PROJECTED GROWTH 2020-2035

Source: ACS 5-Year Estimates, BEBR, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSING TENURE

Homeownership is projected to decline through 2035

▪

Homeownership has historically been unattainable for some portions of the population. Now, it is becoming unattainable for a greater share of the population.

FOR RENT

Homeownership is becoming less accessible as debt levels, high prices and rising interest rates create barriers to buying.

▪

Millennials are aging out of the peak rental years but continue to rent at high rates.

BUY RENT

Marriage rates are declining nationally and the average age of marriage is increasing, resulting in more renters.

More older and higherincome households in the US are choosing rental units with amenities in desirable locations.

The overall homeownership rate is projected to drop for all age groups through 2035. In aggregate, the Region could experience a 2percentage point decrease in homeownership by 2035, per Urban Institute.

General information on demographic and housing trends summarized from several third-party reports. A bibliography of key sources referenced is outlined on page 90. Source: SB Friedman, Urban Institute

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSING TENURE

Roughly two-thirds of households in the Tri-County Region are homeowners

▪

Nationally, single people, single-parent families, and nonfamily households make up about two-thirds of households that rent. Approximately 66% of households in the Tri-County Region are homeowners. Homeowners represent a larger share of households in Pasco County compared to Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties, accounting for three-quarters of households.

TENURE BY COUNTY (2023) TRI-COUNTY REGION HILLSBOROUGH PINELLAS

66%

34%

61%

39%

69%

PASCO

31%

75% Owner

25%

Renter

Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSING TENURE

Propensity to be a homeowner increases with age and income in the Tri-County Region

▪

Our demand projections account for the likelihood of households to choose rental, or for-sale homes based on their age and income. Homeownership rates in the Tri-County Region increase with both age and income, which is in line with homeownership patterns nationally. Propensity to rent is greatest among young households (under 35).

TRI-COUNTY REGION AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER BY TENURE (2023) Under 35 35-54

35%

65% 65%

35%

55-74

78%

22%

75+

80%

20%

TRI-COUNTY REGION HOUSEHOLDS BY AMI & TENURE (2023) <30% AMI 30-60% AMI 60-80% AMI 80-120% AMI 120%+ AMI

52%

48%

56%

44%

61%

39%

67%

33% 82%

Owner

18% Renter

Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

VACANCY RATE

Vacancy rates declined from 2010 to 2023 across the Tri-County Region

▪

▪ ▪

▪

A well-functioning housing market requires a controlled level of vacancy; neither too high nor too low of a vacancy rate is desirable for a competitive housing market with enough supply to facilitate desired moves.

5.0%

Over the last decade, the vacancy rate decreased in both the for-sale and rental market in the Tri-County Region.

2.0%

Paired with rising housing prices, historically low vacancy rates may indicate that for-sale housing supply has not matched recent growth in demand. Rental vacancy rates are hovering around 6% in Hillsborough and Pasco County, which indicates a healthy market; however, this could change as the number of households continues to grow. Rental vacancy is slightly higher in Pinellas County (8.6%).

TRI-COUNTY REGION OWNER VACANCY RATES 4.0% 3.0%

1.0% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

TRI-COUNTY REGION RENTER VACANCY RATES 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Hillsborough County

Pinellas County

Pasco County

Source: ACS 5-Year Estimates, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSING PREFERENCES

Households have different housing preferences that vary with age and income

Since the Great Recession, national housing production has been primarily larger single-family homes and rental apartments. Younger households have a greater preference for new housing, regardless of tenure. In the Tri-County Region, multifamily housing has become a larger share of total housing production postRecession.

Single-family detached homes are the most prevalent housing type for all owner households; however, younger households are purchasing townhomes and condos at higher rates than previous generations.

There is a growing single-family rental market. Middle-aged renter households (35-74) are more likely to rent new singlefamily homes than the youngest and oldest renter households.

Due in part to the prevalence of age-restricted buildings, seniors (75+) in the Tri-County Region have a high propensity to live in rental multifamily housing.

In the Tri-County Region, 9% of households living in singlefamily detached housing rent.

General information on demographic and housing trends summarized from several third-party reports. A bibliography of key sources referenced is outlined on page 90.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

OVERALL PROJECTED HOUSING DEMAND

To accommodate projected growth, the Region will need to add ±21,225 units annually

▪

To accommodate projected household growth and changing demographic trends, the Tri-County Region needs to add ±254,700 new housing units between 2024 and 2035, an average of ±21,225 units per year. ▪ ▪

▪

Between 2018 and 2023, the Tri-County Region permitted an average of ±21,975 units per year. ▪ ▪

▪

±10,685 single family units per year ±10,540 multifamily units per year

±14,540 single family units per year ±7,435 multifamily units per year

To meet anticipated new demand, the Tri-County Region needs to increase its rate of production for multifamily housing.

TRI-COUNTY REGION PROJECTED HOUSING DEMAND BY TYPE (2024-2035)

254,700

TOTAL UNITS

103,800

24,400

126,500

SINGLE-FAMILY, DETACHED UNITS

SINGLE-FAMILY, ATTACHED UNITS

MULTIFAMILY UNITS

±8,650 PER YEAR

±2,035 PER YEAR

±10,540 PER YEAR

20%

29%

34% 59% 7%

Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco

13%

58%

Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco

25%

55%

Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco

[1] Our housing demand model relies on ACS and PUMS data as a baseline. As the most recent data is from 2023, our demand projections start in 2024. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSING SUPPLY CONSIDERATIONS

New homes should reflect evolving household composition and changing preferences

▪

While single-family homes will continue to make up a large part of new housing supply throughout the Region, this housing typology is projected to gradually take a smaller share of the demand for new units.

▪

Production of new homes in the Tri-County Region should reflect evolving household composition and preferences: ▪ More attached housing and smaller single-family homes with entry-level pricing accessible to new homebuyers ▪ Alternative housing for baby boomers and seniors seeking to downsize and age in place ▪ Housing to accommodate growth in multigenerational households and desire for rental single-family homes

[1] Our housing demand model relies on ACS and PUMS data as a baseline. As the most recent data is from 2023, our demand projections start in 2024. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSING DEMAND BY HOUSING TYPE

Half of the projected housing demand in the Tri-County Region is for multifamily units

▪

Hillsborough County accounts for 57% of the projected TriCounty Region housing demand between 2024 and 2035 (144,800 units). Multifamily housing accounts for just under half (48%) of the housing demand in the county, which will need to focus denser housing in more urban areas to accommodate projected housing demand. Pinellas County accounts for 16% of regional housing demand (41,800 units). In contrast to Hillsborough and Pasco Counties, only a quarter of the projected housing unit demand in Pinellas County is for attached or detached single-family units. Pinellas County has less greenfield land available and needs to consider redevelopment and increasing density to accommodate projected housing demand. There is a roughly 68,100-unit demand projected for Pasco County, over half of which is for single-family detached units. Pasco County has greater availability of greenfield sites for subdivision development than other counties in the Region.

TRI-COUNTY REGION PROJECTED HOUSING DEMAND, 2024-2035 160,000 140,000 120,000

69,800

100,000 80,000

14,200

60,000

25,500

40,000

7,000

60,800

20,000

31,200

35,600

3,200 7,400

0 Hillsborough Single-Family Detached

Pinellas Single-Family Attached

Pasco Multifamily

[1] Our housing demand model relies on ACS and PUMS data as a baseline. As the most recent data is from 2023, our demand projections start in 2024. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

DEMAND COMPARISON – HISTORIC & PROJECTED

Increased multifamily production is needed to accommodate projected household growth

▪

Between 2018 and 2023, Tri-County Region permitted an average of ±21,975 units per year. ▪ ▪

▪

±14,540 single family units per year ±7,435 multifamily units per year

With a projected decline in demand for single-family housing, approximately 3,865 fewer annual single-family units (±10,654) are projected between 2024 and 2035 than were historically permitted between 2018 and 2023. In contrast, there is projected demand for approximately 3,100 more multifamily units annually through 2035 (±7,435) than were historically permitted between 2018 and 2023. Pasco County is projected to see the largest increase in demand for multifamily housing and decrease in demand for single-family housing compared to historic permitting.

PROJECTED ANNUAL AVERAGE HOUSING DEMAND BY TYPE SINGLE-FAMILY

MULTIFAMILY

2018-2023

±14,540

±7,435

2024-2035

±10,675

±10,535

2018-2023

±7,465

±5,520

2024-2035

±6,250

±5,810

2018-2023

±1,030

±1,615

2024-2035

±875

±2,600

2018-2023

±6,045

±300

2024-2035

±3,550

±2,125

Tri-County Region

Hillsborough

Pinellas

Pasco

[1] Our housing demand model relies on ACS and PUMS data as a baseline. As the most recent data is from 2023, our demand projections start in 2024. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSING DEMAND BY INCOME LEVEL New homes should be accessible to all income cohorts

▪

▪ ▪

▪

If the Tri-County Region is to accommodate projected growth, 25% of net new units would be needed for households earning below 60% AMI, 32% for households earning 60-120% AMI, and 43% for households earning above 120% AMI. These shares apply to future housing demand; they do not address the current deficit of affordable units in the Region. The Region’s recent market housing production has been heavily weighted to higher price points. Housing supply increases for higher income households relieves pressure on more modest price housing. A diversity of homes at different price points can help increase housing affordability. Deliberate efforts need to continue to be made by counties, municipalities, and partners to increase the supply of new housing production for low- and moderate-income households.

NEW OWNER HOUSING DEMAND DISTRIBUTION, 2024-2035 <60% AMI

60-120% AMI

120%+ AMI

Tri-County Region

15,700 (14%)

25,800 (23%)

68,400 (62%)

Hillsborough

8,500 (14%)

14,900 (24%)

38,800 (62%)

Pinellas

1,900 (18%)

2,000 (19%)

6,500 (63%)

Pasco

5,300 (14%)

8,900 (24%)

23,100 (62%)

NEW RENTER HOUSING DEMAND DISTRIBUTION, 2024-2035 <60% AMI

60-120% AMI

120%+ AMI

Tri-County Region

48,600 (34%)

56,100 (39%)

40,000 (28%)

Hillsborough

31,100 (38%)

27,800 (34%)

23,700 (29%)

Pinellas

10,800 (34%)

9,800 (31%)

Pasco

6,700 (22%)

17,500 (57%)

6,500 (21%)

[1] Our housing demand model relies on ACS and PUMS data as a baseline. As the most recent data is from 2023, our demand projections start in 2024. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSING NEED: HOUSEHOLDS EARNING <60% AMI

Unless more affordable units are built, the Region’s affordable housing shortfall will grow

▪

Tri-County Region households earning less than 60% AMI are more likely to be housing cost-burdened than higher-income households.

▪

The Tri-County Region has estimated current affordable housing shortfall of approximately 138,000 units for households earning less than 60% AMI. This includes 68,640 units for owner households and 69,360 units for renter households.

▪

If the Region is to accommodate its projected growth in population, 41,500 units will be needed for households earning less than 60% AMI by 2035. The private market will not deliver these units at scale without public assistance. The above numbers represent a conservative estimate of unmet need. As many people who work lower-wage jobs in the Tri-County Region cannot currently afford to live near their place of work, the true housing need for lower-income households could exceed the figures noted above.

68,640

69,360

Current Deficit Owner HHs Earning <60% AMI

Current Deficit Renter HHs Earning <60% AMI

15,700

25,800

Projected Future Additional Need Owner HHs Earning <60% AMI

Projected Future Additional Need Renter HHs Earning <60% AMI

[1] Our housing demand model relies on ACS and PUMS data as a baseline. As the most recent data is from 2023, our demand projections start in 2024. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman, Shimberg Center

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

HOUSING NEED: HOUSEHOLDS EARNING 60-120% AMI Increasing the availability of affordable housing is critical to industry attraction & retention

▪

Due to rising construction costs, interest rates and insurance costs, there may be fewer entry-level for-sale homes available in the future for households earning 60-120% AMI.

▪

In recent years, the cost of for-sale units has continued to rise, leaving fewer units available at lower prices. As median home prices climbed between 2019 and 2022, sales of lower priced homes became rare. In 2019, 30% of single-family homes in the Region sold for less than $200,000. In 2022 and the first half of 2023, only 5% of sales did.

▪

Although there is not an existing deficit in the Tri-County Region, approximately 25,800 for-sale units and 56,100 rental units are projected to be needed by 2035 for households earning between 60-120% AMI.

▪

While housing affordability at all levels is important to economic development, increasing the availability of housing affordable to households earning between 60-120% AMI is important for attracting and retaining jobs within regional target industries[1].

According to the Tampa Bay Partnership’s September 2024 report, “Beyond the Front Door: An In-Depth Look at Housing Affordability in Tampa Bay,” rising home insurance costs were mentioned by 45% of participants as a major factor underlying home affordability.

25,800

Projected Future Additional Need Owner HHs Earning 60-120% AMI

56,100

Projected Future Additional Need Renter HHs Earning 60-120% AMI

[1] See page 16 for the complete list of target industries that make up the “regional target industries” referenced in this report

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

07 Meeting the Housing Need

UNLOCKING OPPORTUNITIES FOR HOUSING

The Housing Pipeline Analysis identified 22 projects with 2,488 units that are unfunded

▪

Intersection Ventures created and analyzed a database of existing pipeline affordable housing projects in the Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas County that do not yet have financing, reflecting 22 projects and 2,488 units. Pipeline projects include developments with site control that are in predevelopment (e.g., financial underwriting, entitlements, and permit approvals).

PIPELINE UNIT BREAKDOWN BY AFFORDABILITY BASED ON AREA MEDIAN INCOME

718

Construction of the apartments in the pipeline is projected to generate over $1 billion of total economic impact and support approximately 5,175 jobs during construction, operations, and additional resident spending within the metro economy.

60%-80% AMI

UNFUNDED PIPELINE UNITS BY COUNTY Hillsborough 1,084

1,132

1,444

30%-60% AMI

Pasco

Pinellas 272

326

<=30% AMI

[1] Data was collected from Florida Housing Finance Corporation, affordable housing developers, public housing authorities, and other private data sources.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

FUNDING NEEDED TO UNLOCK THE PIPELINE Approximately $273 million in gap funding is needed to build 22 pipeline projects

▪

Financing affordable housing developments is complex, relying on a mix of commercial mortgages, Low-Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC), bonds, and gap funding through subsidies or low-interest loans provided by local and state governments. The gap funding is most essential, as it unlocks the other sources and guarantees deeper affordability. However, gap funding is increasingly scarce, and that scarcity can delay projects from breaking ground. Approximately $273 million in gap funding is needed to build the 2,488 affordable homes in the development pipeline. These funds would unlock over $663 million in additional available sources, including tax exempt bonds, noncompetitive tax credits, and private mortgages. A portion of the subsidy could take the form of various existing sources, including local, state and federal funds. However, these sources altogether fall far short of the needs identified. Unless new resources are raised, projects in the affordable pipeline will face significant delays and could be abandoned for market rate deals. New sources could take the form of local bonds or philanthropic donations.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

TOTAL ESTIMATED FUNDING GAP FOR IDENTIFIED PIPELINE

$273M

Total Soft Subsidy Needed to Fund the Affordable Housing Pipeline

08 Housing Toolkit

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY TOOLKIT

A mix of strategies can help protect and expand housing affordability in the Region

TAMPA BAY REGION HOUSING STRATEGIES There are several different programs, policies and strategies that jurisdictions and nonprofits can implement to protect, increase and fund the supply of affordable housing in the Region. The tools can be grouped into the following categories: housing development, housing programs, funding mechanisms, zoning & regulation, and advocacy & capacity building. The following slides provide a sample of existing initiatives and potential actions the Tampa Bay Partnership and others can take to support the preservation and creation of affordable housing in the Tri-County Region.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

Housing Development

Housing Programs

Funding Mechanisms

Expand Market-Rate and Affordable Housing Supply throughout the Region

Maintain or Expand Access to Affordable Housing and Ensure Subsidy Programs Meet High Priority Needs

Establish or Grow Funding Sources for Housing from Public, Private and Philanthropic Sources

Zoning & Regulation

Advocacy & Capacity Building

Modify Policies to Unlock Developable Land for Housing Development

Build and Sustain Strategic Partnerships and Support for Affordable Housing

EXISTING & ONGOING HOUSING INITIATIVES

Examples encompass some existing municipal and county-level initiatives in the Region [1] Category

Strategy

Hillsborough County

Affordable Housing Development Program

Housing Development

Housing Programs

Community Land Trusts

Pinellas County

X X

Housing Finance Authority

Opportunity Zones

Zoning & Regulation [2]

Advocacy & Capacity Building

X X

Surplus County Property Sales

Downpayment Assistance Program

Home Repair & Rehabilitation Program

Rental Assistance Program

Tax Payment/Foreclosure Prevention Program

Funding Mechanisms

Pasco County

Community Redevelopment Areas (CRA)

X X

Housing Trust Fund

Accessory Dwelling Unit Ordinances

Affordable Housing Density Bonus

Affordable Housing Development Manual

Affordable Housing Regulations Update / Housing Regulatory Toolkit

Expedited Approvals

Land Use Restriction Agreement / Deed-Restricted Housing

Affordable Housing Media Campaign

Affordable Housing Summit

[1] Table primarily shows County-led initiatives. In addition to these initiatives, cities and other municipalities in the Region have other programs and efforts to address housing affordability. [2] Zoning and development regulations are generally controlled and administered by municipalities. Certain strategies and tools would likely need to be implemented at the municipal level rather than county- or Region-wide

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

EXISTING & ONGOING HOUSING INITIATIVES Glossary | Municipal and County-Level Strategies Category

Housing Development

Housing Programs

Funding Mechanisms

Strategy

Definition

Affordable Housing Development Program

Affordable housing development programs support the development of new affordable housing by providing grant or loan funds to developers to support predevelopment and development costs.

Community Land Trusts

A community land trust (CLT) acquires and maintains permanent ownership of land. Residents can purchase a home or multifamily property on the land and enter a long-term (±99-year) lease. When a homeowner sells, they typically receive a formula-based moderate return on investment. Community land trusts, along with other alternative ownership models, can provide new opportunities for investment and reduce barriers to homeownership.

Housing Finance Authority

A housing finance authority is established at the state or local level to administers various housing finance programs to support the development of affordable housing within their respective service area.

Opportunity Zones

Opportunity Zones are an economic development tool that incentivizes investment in qualifying census tracts through the provision of temporary deferral of capital gains taxes.

Surplus County Property Sales

As a provision of the Live Local Act, all cities and counties in Florida are required to create an affordable housing land inventory of publicly-owned land that is “appropriate for affordable housing.” Jurisdictions can either sell the property to a prospective developer based on their own internal evaluation process or enter into a long-term land lease with the developer.

Downpayment Assistance Program

Downpayment assistance programs helps low- to moderate-income new homebuyers purchase a home by providing upfront funds in the form of a grant or loan to cover the downpayment and closing costs.

Home Repair & Rehabilitation Program

Home repair & rehabilitation programs provide grants or loans to cover maintenance expenses for low- to moderate-income homeowners to enable them to better maintain their properties and remain in their homes. Continued (and increased) funding to support these programs improves the safety and lifespan of existing homes.

Rental Assistance Program

Rental assistance programs consist of programs that support renters through the provision of financial assistance with monthly rent, deposits, and moving costs, typically in the form of a grant (vouchers).

Tax Payment/Foreclosure Prevention Program

Tax payment/foreclosure prevention programs aim to keep homeowners avoid foreclosure and remain in their homes by providing loans to cover the cost of delinquent taxes, special assessments, homeowner association fees, and mortgagee payments.

Community Redevelopment Areas (CRA)

Community redevelopment areas serve as an economic development tool available to municipalities in Florida, where incremental growth in property values can be capture to support the development of affordable housing among other initiatives.

Housing Trust Fund

Housing trust funds (HTFs) are frequently operated by a nonprofit associated with a municipality and are responsible for meeting the permanent housing needs of very low-income residents. Trust funds can own and/or manage affordable housing units. HTFs also frequently provide rental subsidies to nonprofit or private housing partners who directly manage properties.

Source: Florida Housing Coalition, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

EXISTING & ONGOING HOUSING INITIATIVES Glossary | Municipal and County-Level Strategies Category

Zoning & Regulation [1]

Advocacy & Capacity Building

Strategy

Definition

Accessory Dwelling Unit Ordinances

An accessory dwelling unit (ADU) is a secondary housing unit on an existing residential lot that tend to be smaller and more affordable. Enabling the construction of ADUs is particularly valuable in communities that are land-constrained as they can add density without significantly altering neighborhood character.

Affordable Housing Density Bonus

Jurisdictions can incentivize affordable housing production by allowing housing developers to exceed the density constraints of the existing zoning if a certain share of units in the development are kept affordable at determined affordability thresholds.

Affordable Housing Development Manual

An affordable housing development manual provides guidelines and resources for developers seeking to create affordable housing units. It outlines requirements, funding opportunities, and incentives for projects that aim to provide housing for low-to-moderate income individuals and families.

Affordable Housing Regulations Update / Housing Regulatory Toolkit

A regulatory toolkit consists of a menu of incentives to encourage affordable housing construction, improvements, adaptation, redevelopment, and preservation. This allows developers to select which incentives fit project needs in exchange for various incentives.

Expedited Approvals

A municipality may implement an expedited approvals process for affordable housing developments that are able to meet certain requirements, allowing them to move more quickly through the approvals process. This reduces cost and uncertainty for the developer and helps bring units to market faster.

Land Use Restriction Agreement / Deed-Restricted Housing

A land use restriction agreement (LURA) is a legal document that restricts how a property can be used, typically in exchange for financial incentives like tax credits. These agreements are commonly used in affordable housing projects, and often include rent limits, unit set-asides for low-income residents, and other affordability requirements.

Affordable Housing Media Campaign

Media and branding initiatives spearheaded by nonprofits or municipalities can be critical to the success of increasing the affordable housing inventory by building public support for affordable housing development. Media initiatives are often led by nonprofit housing activists who can engage with local journalists or community groups to build support for single-site projects or affordable housing more broadly.

Affordable Housing Summit

Affordable housing summits serve as a space to convene relevant stakeholders and actors within the affordable housing industry, disseminate information and best practices, build consensus, and identify opportunities for collaboration. They typically consist of panels and discussion groups with opportunities for attendees to network and exchange ideas on an individual basis.

[1] Zoning and development regulations are generally controlled and administered by municipalities. Certain strategies and tools would likely need to be implemented at the municipal level rather than county- or Region-wide

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EXISTING & ONGOING HOUSING INITIATIVES Statewide programs further support housing affordability efforts in the Region Examples of Statewide Initiatives Florida Community Loan Fund Affordable Housing Program (AHP) Housing Development

HOME Investment Partnerships Program Predevelopment Loan Program (PLP) State Apartment Loan Incentive (SAIL) Florida Hometown Heroes Housing Program Florida Housing Finance Corporation Homebuyer Program

Housing Programs

Homeownership Pool (HOP) Program The Florida Assist (FL Assist) The Florida Homeownership Loan Program (FL HLP) Second Mortgage

Neighborhood Lending Partners Rental Rehabilitation/Construction Loan Program Funding Mechanisms Zoning & Regulation Advocacy & Capacity Building

Community Contribution Tax Credit Program (CCTCP) Private Activity Pond Allocation Program Live Local Act

THE SADOWSKI TRUST FUND State funding sources for affordable housing play a critical role in supporting housing development. Florida's statewide affordable housing initiatives are primarily funded through the State Apartment Incentive Loan (SAIL) program and the State Housing Initiatives Partnership (SHIP) program, both stemming from the Sadowski Affordable Housing Trust Fund. However, some recurring funding is no longer guaranteed by the Legislature for several statewide programs. Housing advocates should continue to closely follow the appropriation process in coming years and continue to advocate for funding for affordable housing programs.

State Housing Initiatives Partnership (SHIP) Florida Housing Finance Corporation Catalyst Program

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ADDITIONAL HOUSING ACTIONS

A range of housing initiatives can be added to or expanded upon in the Region Additional Housing Initiatives

Housing Development Housing Programs

▪ Community land trusts and land banks ▪ Strategic acquisition and disposition

▪ Employer-assisted housing ▪ Energy efficiency grants for NOAH properties ▪ Housing impact fund to increase affordable rental housing development

Funding Mechanisms

▪ Housing trust fund to provide local source of funds for housing ▪ Perpetual housing fund to support affordable homeownership ▪ Mezzanine loan fund to provide gap financing in high-cost markets ▪ Affordable housing bond referendums ▪ Pre-approved housing plans for medium density building types

Zoning & Regulation

▪ Streamlined development approval processes ▪ Regional Affordable Housing Development Regulatory Toolkit ▪ Removal of zoning restrictions that limit the production of starter homes ▪ Repeal of parking minimums for housing developments

▪ Regional housing coalition ▪ Housing-supportive media and branding

Advocacy & Capacity Building

BUILDING OUT THE TOOLKIT Different programs, policies and strategies can help protect, increase and fund the supply of affordable housing in the Region. The additional housing initiatives identified represent potential opportunities to expand upon and/or fill gaps in the existing housing initiatives in the Tri-County Region. Several high impact housing initiatives are bolded and profiled in further detail in the following slides.

▪ Regional housing action plan ▪ Developer roundtables to understand private-sector perspective on development challenges ▪ Regional inventory of available development land ▪ Tracking regional performance on housing goals

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COMMUNITY LAND TRUSTS & LAND BANKS Housing Development

OVERVIEW A community land trust (CLT) acquires and maintains permanent ownership of land. Residents can purchase a home or multifamily property on the land and enter a long-term (±99-year) lease. When a homeowner is ready to sell, owners will receive a formula-based moderate return on investment. The legally constrained sale price maintains affordability for the subsequent owner. CLTs can also lease multifamily properties, in which leaseholders are subject to the same resale restrictions. A community land bank (CLB) purchases and converts vacant and abandoned land into productive uses. The CLBs do not necessarily maintain ownership of the land, instead selling or donating the land to a private entity at a low cost. EXAMPLE Cuyahoga Land Bank – Cleveland, OH The Cuyahoga Lank Bank was established in 2009 to respond to the foreclosure crisis in Cleveland. Since then, it has demolished over 10,000 abandoned buildings, renovated over 2,600 homes, and supported the construction of around 250 new homes. According to a study completed in October 2024, the Cuyahoga Land Bank has generated over $3.6 billion in economic impact. Their renovations have increased property values across Cuyahoga County by about $950 million and every $1 spent on new construction has led to an increase of $1.75 in property value.

STATE INITIATIVE Bright Community Trust – Central, North Central, Southwest and Suncoast Florida Bright Community Trust operates a community land trust that offers 99-year ground leases to ensure the continued affordability for its units. The organization operates over 500 affordable rental units and has developed over 100 single-family homes for income-restricted, first-time homebuyers.

HOUSING IMPACT FUND Funding Mechanisms

OVERVIEW A housing impact fund makes strategic investments in affordable housing, providing debt or equity financing for the development or preservation of affordable housing. Housing impact funds provide patient capital with lower return requirements than conventional lending, allowing for more favorable terms for affordable housing development or preservation. Corporations, foundations, and other private investors typically provide funding, which is the last money that goes into a project. While housing impact funds are mission-driven, they still seek to make a return for investors. They are typically managed by a nonprofit or real estate entity, with their direction governed by an advisory board of investor representatives. Investment committees underwrite projects just as a more conventional lender would. EXAMPLE Ascent Housing: Housing Impact Fund (I & II) – Charlotte, NC Created in 2020, this fund supports the acquisition, financing, renovation and operation of affordable housing, in which 30% of units serve households earning less than 30% AMI, 50% of units serve households earning between 30% to 60% AMI, and 20% of units serve households earning between 60% to 80% AMI. Housing Impact Fund I renovated and preserved 805 apartments across five neighborhoods in Charlotte. Launched in 2023, Housing Impact Fund II aims to preserve 1,200 NOAH units over the following two years.

STATE INITIATIVE Florida Minority Impact Housing Fund (FMIHF) Operated by Neighborhood Lending Partners, a community development financial institution (CDFI), FMIHF provide loans for the construction, acquisition and rehabilitation of affordable single-family and multifamily housing. The fund aims to foster affordable housing in low- and moderateincome minority communities and to support the capacity of Florida-based and minority-led nonprofit housing developers.

HOUSING TRUST FUND Funding Mechanisms

OVERVIEW Housing trust funds (HTFs) are frequently operated by a nonprofit associated with a municipality and are responsible for meeting the permanent housing needs of very low-income residents. HTFs are typically funded through federal sources and discretionary local dollars. Trust funds can own and/or manage affordable housing units. HTFs also frequently provide rental subsidies to nonprofit or private housing partners who directly manage properties. Housing trust funds are necessary to support the construction of housing at very low income levels.

EXAMPLE Barnes Housing Trust Fund – Nashville, TN Created in 2013, the Barnes Housing Trust Fund offers grants to nonprofit housing developers to both preserve and create affordable rental and for-sale units for Nashville residents. Eligible rental homes must be affordable to households earning below 60% AMI while for-sale homes must be affordable to households earning less than 80% AMI. Since its establishment, it has awarded over $160 million in grants, directly supporting the development or preservation of over 6,000 income-restricted units and leveraging over $1.4 billion in private, philanthropic and public funds.

STATE INITIATIVE Affordable Housing Development Program – Pinellas County, FL Pinellas County’s Affordable Housing Development Program (AHDP) uses HOME, SHIP and Penny IV funds to help preserve, develop and rehabilitate affordable housing units up to 120% AMI. To date, the County has approved $102 million in assistance that has directly supported 2,705 units. Each $1 of program funding supports $9 of investment.

PRE-APPROVED HOUSING PLANS Zoning & Regulation

OVERVIEW Jurisdictions have started providing pre-approved housing plans or “pattern zoning” to help expedite the development process. Jurisdictions can offer a catalog of housing plans that have already been reviewed and approved by the necessary regulatory agencies, reducing the time and cost to securing building permits. In addition, it can encourage the production of missingmiddle housing typologies that may not otherwise be being built and encourage higher-quality design. Having shared, pre-approved plans across counties could make it easier for developers to work in different jurisdictions throughout a region.

EXAMPLE Unified Development Codes – Claremore, OK As part of their unified development codes, the City of Claremore created a catalog of pre-approved housing plans and designs. This has substantially expedited the permitting process for applicable project, especially for infill housing development. Claremore’s efforts have led to an increase in housing production in their community.

STATE INITIATIVE Ready Set Orange – Orange County, FL Orange County’s Ready Set Orange program provides four pre-approved floorplan designs for single-family homes and four pre-approved floorplan designs for accessory dwelling units. Once receiving their chosen design and retaining a design professional, program participants are fast tracked through the permitting process and provided step-by-step instructions on the remainder of the approval process.

STREAMLINED DEVELOPMENT APPROVAL Zoning & Regulation

OVERVIEW Lengthy administrative review and uncertainty in the approval process both increase development costs and project risk, which can deter development. Smaller developers who often cannot carry costs or maneuver administrative review as easily are most impacted. To help reduce barriers to housing production, many municipalities have sought to streamline and simplify the development approval process. Streamlining development approval can include strategies such as expanding administrative review to reduce the amount of time spent being reviewed by a planning commission or elected body, transitioning certain processes online, or establishing performance measures related to review timelines. EXAMPLE Concurrent Review & Administrative Approval – Auburn, WA

STATE INITIATIVE Improved Approval Processes – Groveland, FL The City of Groveland has made a variety of changes to improve their building approval process. For instance, the City has a clearly outlined timeline for the site plan review process, including how many days City staff and the applicant have to complete their respective portions during each step in the process. This provides a sense of clarity and predictability to the duration of the approval process.

The City of Auburn allows for different departments to review development applications concurrently to speed up the review process. Final plat applications are approved administratively to save additional time.

REGIONAL HOUSING COALITION Advocacy & Capacity Building

OVERVIEW Housing coalitions are flexible entities that typically focus on advocacy, capacity building and education by providing a forum for stakeholders to network and learn from one another. Housing coalitions can include local housing and community development experts, social service providers, business leaders, civic leaders, developers and residents. While local government staff and elected officials can also be members of housing coalitions, the entity is often used to champion housing issues outside of government. Coalitions may prepare community education materials, raise awareness of specific housing needs, attend community meetings to advocate for specific policies, and lead funding campaigns for specific initiatives. EXAMPLE Central Virginia Regional Housing Partnership (CVRHP) Created by the Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission, the CVRHP acts as an official regional advisory board in partnership with public, private, nonprofit and local stakeholders on matters related to housing production, diversity, accessibility, cost, location and design, among others. The CVRHP serves as a forum for coordination, development and distribution of housing strategies and tools, and keeping relevant stakeholders up to date on the state of housing in the region.

STATE INITIATIVE Florida Housing Coalition The Florida Housing Coalition offers many different training programs to support affordable housing across the state. It also engages with local governments to explore ways to attract affordable housing developers and remove barriers to development. It is sponsored by most major lending institutions along with national affordable housing players, both of which are critical to the success of affordable housing deals.

HOUSING-SUPPORTIVE MEDIA & BRANDING Advocacy & Capacity Building

OVERVIEW Affordable housing remains deeply unpopular in many communities across the nation. Local opposition to affordable housing (often termed “not in my backyard” or “NIMBYism”) is one of the biggest barriers to affordable housing. Media and branding initiatives spearheaded by nonprofits or municipalities can be critical to the success of increasing the affordable housing inventory. Media initiatives are often led by nonprofit housing activists who can engage with local journalists or community groups to build support for single-site projects or affordable housing more broadly. Identifying local champions is a great technique to combat NIMBYism.

EXAMPLE Campaign for $80M Bond Referendum – Raleigh, NC Voters in Raleigh overwhelming supported a referendum for an $80M affordable housing bond in November 2020. This effort garnered media attention. “Vote Yes,” which was paid for by Citizens Supporting Raleigh, informed the public about the need for affordable housing in Raleigh by sharing existing conditions and potential tools to support the affordable housing shortfall in Raleigh.

STATE INITIATIVE Housing Action Lab – Florida Housing Coalition The Housing Action Lab is a virtual housing advocacy and research hub. Part of the Florida Housing Coalition, its website explores housing policies, housing-related news, and tools for housing advocacy. Their virtual presence helps disseminate information and resources, facilitate discourse, and spread awareness of affordable housing development challenges and opportunities statewide.

REGIONAL HOUSING ACTION PLAN Advocacy & Capacity Building

OVERVIEW A regional housing action plan outlines a vision, priorities and action steps to address shared housing challenges within a region. The planning process consists of convening and gathering input from various stakeholders across the region, whether through surveys, workshops, housing summits, steering committees or other forms of engagement. This engagement process is critical to the creation of a holistic plan that reflects the diversity of needs, resources, priorities and challenges that exist across the region. This planning exercise further builds consensus and buy-in among stakeholders around the shared housing challenges and agreed-up approaches to tackle these issues collectively in the coming years.

EXAMPLE Dane County Regional Housing Strategy – Dane County, WI The Dane County Regional Housing Strategy was a year-long strategic planning process initiated by the County in 2022. An 80-person housing advisory committee consisting of elected officials, local associations, developers, builders, banks, residents, and state agencies convened monthly to establish a five-year vision and action plan for housing within the region. Additional public outreach included focus groups, interviews, and a public survey for residents and workers.

STATE INITIATIVE Regional Affordable Housing Initiative – Central Florida Orange County partnered with Osceola County, Seminole County and the City of Orlando to launch the Regional Affordable Housing Initiative in 2016 to establish a regional vision strategy for housing in Central Florida. Orange County held a Regional Affordable Housing Summit in 2016 in Orange County, followed by three public workshops over the subsequent two years.

09 A Path Forward

A REGIONAL APPROACH

Regional approaches allow localities to work together to address shared housing challenges

▪

Housing markets are regional in nature and do not respect jurisdictional boundaries. Municipalities, nonprofits and private-sector partners across the Tri-County Region could benefit from taking a regional approach to addressing housing challenges and fostering economic development. With interconnected economies and labor pools, addressing these issues at a regional scale is beneficial to all. Through a collaborative regional approach, individual actors can pool resources and expertise, while also ensuring that they work together—rather than against each other—on affordability, preservation and other housing issues .

▪

Many housing professionals and stakeholders across the Tri-County Region already communicate and collaborate with one another. For example, several local governments in Pinellas County have signed the Advantage Pinellas Housing Compact, which establishes shared housing policy goals. However, there is a strong consensus among stakeholders in the Region that greater regional collaboration—including across sectors—is necessary for addressing housing challenges.

▪

At the moment, there is no singular, well-defined structure to spur increased regional coordination around housing in the TriCounty Region. A regional champion that convenes and organizes municipal, nonprofit and private-sector partners to advance shared housing goals would help these local stakeholders more effectively tackle the regional issue of housing.

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A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT

Different sectors all have a crucial role to play in furthering housing affordability

Public Sector

Employers

Set policies and regulations, including zoning, that can create an environment to encourage housing development or preservation

Bring capital, expertise, and innovation to help build housing more efficiently

Help fill gaps in the provision of services and inform effective program design

Pioneer innovative ways to finance affordable housing projects

Advocate for housing projects and programs at local and regional levels

Drive advancements in design and construction to reduce costs while maintaining building quality

Help engage communities and communicate housing needs to other players

Toolkit Example: Housing Impact Fund (setup, funding, and management)

Toolkit Example: Community land trust (formation, advocacy, and governance)

Establish programs (e.g., downpayment assistance) to support housing needs Provide funding for affordable housing development and rehab of existing housing stock

Toolkit Example: Pre-approved housing plans (program creation and administration)

Nonprofits

Source: Bottom Billion Corporation, Florida Housing Coalition, Local Housing Solutions, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

NEED FOR A REGIONAL HOUSING ACTION PLAN

A regional action plan can build consensus and momentum around housing affordability

▪

A regional housing action plan is a priority for the Tampa Bay Region. It can assess current efforts underway to address housing issues, review analysis defining housing needs and current trends, and identify top priorities and strategies to address the housing crisis. By convening housing stakeholders from different sectors and from across the region, the planning process can establish and build consensus around core values and priorities related to housing.

A regional housing action plan also provides data, guidance, and technical assistance around housing. As a result, it can help guide local comprehensive plan updates and support jurisdictions in efforts to adopt best practices around housing. Finally, a regional housing action plan should establish coordinated local and regional targets around housing development and affordability and determine leads for different housing initiatives. In doing so, the plan can bring transparency and accountability to housing efforts.

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REGIONAL HOUSING ACTION PLAN COMPONENTS CORE VALUES Anchors the vision and underpins the housing priorities and ultimately strategies

HOUSING PRIORITIES Overarching goals for implementation

ACTION ITEMS Concrete near-term steps to achieve strategies

METRICS

VISION STATEMENT Based on the core values and reflects the values for achieving future housing goals

STRATEGIES Specific initiatives associated with each priority

PARTNERS Key entities who lead or support each action item

Help partners measure progress and success of strategies

ACTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS

Tampa Bay Partnership can unite different voices and foster a regional approach

▪

As a regional entity that works with public, nonprofit and private-sector partners, the Tampa Bay Partnership can unite different voices and foster a regional approach to preserving and developing affordable housing in the Region through actions such as: ▪

▪

Advocating for the creation or continued use of housing tools like community land trusts, housing impact funds, housing trust funds, and other programs throughout the Region. Convening and educating stakeholders about regional housing affordability needs and strategies. Coordinating regulatory action and funding strategies across sectors and jurisdictions throughout the Region.

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

ACTION ITEMS FOR TAMPA BAY PARTNERSHIP 1. Convene a regular housing coalition consisting of public sector, business and nonprofit stakeholders 2. Lead the creation of a regional strategic action plan focused on housing with support from other housing coalition members 3. Develop a regional media strategy to build support for affordable housing and identify resources available to carry out this work

VISION | ECONOMICS

MARKET AN ALYSIS AND REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS STRATEGY

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DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY AND PLANNING FINANCE | IMPLEMENTATION

PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS AND IMPLEMENTATION

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REPORTS REFERENCED ▪

Goodman, L., & Zhu, J. (2021). The Future of Headship and Homeownership. Urban Institute. https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/103501/the-future-of-headship-and-homeownership_0.pdf

▪

Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University. (2022). America’s Rental Housing 2022. https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/files/Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2022.pdf

▪

Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University. (2024). The State of the Nation’s Housing 2024. https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/files/Harvard_JCHS_The_State_of_the_Nations_Housing_2024.pdf

▪

Patel, E., Rajan, A., & Tomeh, N. (2024). Make it count: Measuring our housing supply shortage. The Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/make-it-count-measuring-our-housing-supply-shortage/

▪

Logan, G., & Mangold, K. (2018). 2018 Housing & Community Preference Survey. RCLCO. https://www.rclco.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Advisory-2018Housing-Community-Preference-Survey.pdf

▪

Ryzhov, M., Hall, C., & Rose, A. (2023, September 13). Changing Housing Preferences: Analyzing Demand-Side Housing Trends [Conference session]. 2023 APAIL State Conference, North Central College, Naperville, IL, United States.

▪

Sacramento Area Council of Governments. (2014, August 28). Trends in the Housing Market: An Update on Changing Demographics and Consumer Preferences.

▪

Shimberg Center for Housing Studies. (2024). Tampa Bay Regional Housing Needs Assessment.

▪

Urban Institute. (n.d.). Forecasting State and National Trends in Household Formation and Homeownership. https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/housingfinance-policy-center/projects/forecasting-state-and-national-trends-household-formation-and-homeownership

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

Appendix 1: County-Level Data

TOP TRADED CLUSTERS AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY, LIVESTOCK & MINING

4.0

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY KNOWLEDGE, RESEARCH & HEALTHCARE MANUFACTURING

3.5

PROFESSIONAL, BUSINESS & CONSUMER SERVICES TOURISM & ENTERTAINMENT TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING & UTILITIES

3.0

2.5

Location Quotient

Hillsborough County

Bubble Size = Job Counts 1,852 up to 82,744

Insurance Services

Electric Power Generation and Transmission Engineering Services

2.0

Financial Services

Percent Job Growth (2010-2024) -75%

-50%

Education and Knowledge Creation

1.5

Distribution and Electronic Commerce

Hospitality and Tourism

Business Services

Information Technology Life Sciences

Performing Arts 1.0

-25%

25%

Marketing, Design, and Publishing Agricultural Inputs and Services

Construction Products and Services

Legal Services

50%

75% Healthcare

0.5 Food Processing and Manufacturing

Production Technology and Heavy Machinery

100%

125%

Transportation and Logistics Downstream Metal Products

0.0 Source: Lightcast, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

TOP TRADED CLUSTERS Pinellas County

3.0

2.5

Location Quotient

Communications Equipment and Services

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Marketing, Design, and Publishing

KNOWLEDGE, RESEARCH & HEALTHCARE MANUFACTURING PROFESSIONAL, BUSINESS & CONSUMER SERVICES TOURISM & ENTERTAINMENT TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING & UTILITIES

2.0 Analytical Instruments Manufacturing

-50%

Life Sciences Healthcare

Financial Services

Percent Job Growth (2010-2024)

Bubble Size = Job Counts 8,995 up to 64,059

Insurance Services

Lighting and Electrical Equipment 1.5 Printing Services

Business Services

Aerospace Vehicles and Defense

Legal Services

Tourism and Entertainment

Production Technology and Heavy Machinery

1.0

-25%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Construction Products and Services

Distribution and Electronic Commerce

Education and Knowledge Creation

0.5 Engineering Services

Information Technology

Transportation and Logistics

0.0 Source: Lightcast, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

TOP TRADED CLUSTERS Pasco County 2.5

Location Quotient

AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY, LIVESTOCK & MINING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Construction Products and Services

KNOWLEDGE, RESEARCH & HEALTHCARE MANUFACTURING PROFESSIONAL, BUSINESS & CONSUMER SERVICES TOURISM & ENTERTAINMENT TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING & UTILITIES

Hospitality and Tourism

1.5 Production Technology and Heavy Machinery

Healthcare

Agricultural Inputs and Services

Percent Job Growth (2010-2024)

1 -50%

50%

100%

150%

Transportation and Logistics

Legal Services

Education and Knowledge Creation

Metalworking Technology

Plastics Engineering Services

Food Processing and Manufacturing

Insurance Services 0

250%

300%

350%

400%

Business Services

Marketing, Design, and Publishing

0.5

200%

Life Sciences

Information Technology

Bubble Size = Job Counts 184 up to 20,612

Financial Services Distribution and Electronic Commerce

Source: Lightcast, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

LARGEST TRADED INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Hillsborough County

TAMPA BAY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION’S TARGET INDUSTRIES CORPORATE HQ DEFENSE & SECURITY DISTRIBUTION & LOGISTICS

FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LIFE SCIENCES & HEALTHCARE MANUFACTURING

TOP 15 INDUSTRIES BY TOTAL JOBS INDUSTRY

TOTAL JOBS (2024)

JOB GROWTH (2010-2024)

AVERAGE WAGES

Hospitality and Tourism

82,744

39%

$39,724

Business Services

40,468

65%

$114,430

Healthcare Distribution and Electronic Commerce Life Sciences

39,567

48%

$82,825

36,052

91%

$97,715

25,498

14%

$67,728

Information Technology

24,847

58%

$121,614

Financial Services

22,797

97%

$151,033

Marketing, Design, and Publishing

16,011

104%

$101,719

Education and Knowledge Creation

12,845

-3%

$139,988

Insurance Services

11,909

24%

$133,583

Legal Services Analytical Instruments Manufacturing Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Production Technology and Heavy Machinery Transportation and Logistics

11,061

51%

$126,115

11,022

103%

$83,228

6,413

-54%

$39,146

5,870

$104,324

5,731

60%

$107,665

Source: Lightcast, Tampa Bay Economic Development Corporation, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

FASTEST-GROWING INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Hillsborough County

TAMPA BAY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION’S TARGET INDUSTRIES CORPORATE HQ DEFENSE & SECURITY DISTRIBUTION & LOGISTICS

FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LIFE SCIENCES & HEALTHCARE MANUFACTURING

TOP 15 INDUSTRIES BY JOB GROWTH INDUSTRY

TOTAL JOBS (2024)

JOB GROWTH (2010-2024)

AVERAGE WAGES

Life Sciences

16,011

104%

$101,719

Transportation and Logistics

11,022

103%

$83,228

Information Technology Distribution and Electronic Commerce Downstream Metal Products

22,797

97%

$151,033

36,052

91%

$97,715

1,852

78%

$85,375

Business Services

40,468

65%

$114,430

Construction Products and Services

5,731

60%

$107,665

Insurance Services

24,847

58%

$121,614

Engineering Services

11,061

51%

$126,115

Healthcare

39,567

48%

$82,825

Hospitality and Tourism Production Technology and Heavy Machinery Legal Services

82,744

39%

$39,724

1,996

38%

$119,983

11,909

24%

$133,583

Performing Arts Food Processing and Manufacturing

2,167

21%

$64,308

3,834

17%

$81,809

Source: Lightcast, Tampa Bay Economic Development Corporation, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

LARGEST TRADED INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TARGET INDUSTRIES ADVANCED MANUFACTURING AVIATION / AEROSPACE / DEFENSE BUSINESS & FINANCIAL SERVICES

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LIFE SCIENCES & MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY

TOP 15 INDUSTRIES BY TOTAL JOBS INDUSTRY

TOTAL JOBS (2024)

JOB GROWTH (2010-2024)

AVERAGE WAGES

Hospitality and Tourism

64,059

39%

$37,208

Business Services

30,857

41%

$109,014

Healthcare Distribution and Electronic Commerce Life Sciences

22,574

25%

$82,914

11,703

14%

$103,445

10,001

31%

$99,492

Information Technology

8,995

87%

$132,437

Financial Services

8,861

$182,936

Marketing, Design, and Publishing

7,791

11%

$100,249

Education and Knowledge Creation

7,314

32%

$86,781

Insurance Services

5,825

34%

$108,632

Legal Services Analytical Instruments Manufacturing Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Production Technology and Heavy Machinery Transportation and Logistics

4,219

14%

$107,354

4,017

13%

$170,828

3,520

16%

$116,452

2,756

45%

$86,035

2,403

36%

$72,864

Source: Lightcast, Pinellas County Economic Development (PCED), SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

FASTEST-GROWING INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TARGET INDUSTRIES ADVANCED MANUFACTURING AVIATION / AEROSPACE / DEFENSE BUSINESS & FINANCIAL SERVICES

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LIFE SCIENCES & MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY

TOP 15 INDUSTRIES BY JOB GROWTH INDUSTRY

TOTAL JOBS (2024)

JOB GROWTH (2010-2024)

AVERAGE WAGES

8,995

87%

$132,437

Information Technology Production Technology and Heavy Machinery Business Services

2,756

45%

$86,035

30,857

41%

$109,014

Hospitality and Tourism

64,059

39%

$37,208

Transportation and Logistics

2,403

36%

$72,864

Insurance Services

5,825

34%

$108,632

Education and Knowledge Creation

7,314

32%

$86,781

Life Sciences

10,001

31%

$99,492

Construction Products and Services

1,667

27%

$78,662

Healthcare

22,574

25%

$82,914

Engineering Services

1,628

21%

$116,897

Aerospace Vehicles and Defense Distribution and Electronic Commerce Legal Services Analytical Instruments Manufacturing

3,520

16%

$116,452

11,703

14%

$103,445

4,219

14%

$107,354

4,017

13%

$170,828

Source: Lightcast, Pinellas County Economic Development (PCED), SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

LARGEST TRADED INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Pasco County

PASCO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION’S TARGET INDUSTRIES

TOP 15 INDUSTRIES BY TOTAL JOBS INDUSTRY

TOTAL JOBS (2024)

JOB GROWTH (2010-2024)

AVERAGE WAGES

Hospitality and Tourism

20,612

77%

$26,643

AVIATION, AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

Healthcare

9,091

90%

$77,220

Education and Knowledge Creation

3,365

-9%

$43,355

3,346

180%

$96,573

BUSINESS & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

Business Services Distribution and Electronic Commerce Construction Products and Services

2,606

89%

$98,865

2,096

251%

$90,326

Information Technology

1,406

241%

$162,384

Life Sciences

1,208

120%

$79,590

Transportation and Logistics

1,080

109%

$68,994

Agricultural Inputs and Services

997

27%

$56,179

Marketing, Design, and Publishing

871

56%

$91,635

Financial Services

866

113%

$116,562

Legal Services Production Technology and Heavy Machinery Engineering Services

784

14%

$87,269

690

-17%

$112,111

525

122%

$111,057

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LIFE SCIENCES & MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY LOGISTICS & DISTRIBUTION

Source: Lightcast, Pasco Economic Development Council, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

FASTEST-GROWING INDUSTRY CLUSTERS Pasco County

PASCO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION’S TARGET INDUSTRIES ADVANCED MANUFACTURING AVIATION, AEROSPACE & DEFENSE BUSINESS & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LIFE SCIENCES & MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY LOGISTICS & DISTRIBUTION

TOP 15 INDUSTRIES BY JOB GROWTH INDUSTRY

TOTAL JOBS (2024)

JOB GROWTH (2010-2024)

AVERAGE WAGES

Construction Products and Services

2,096

251%

$90,326

Information Technology

1,406

241%

$162,384

Business Services

3,346

180%

$96,573

Plastics

355

140%

$61,134

Engineering Services

525

122%

$111,057

Life Sciences

1,208

120%

$79,590

Financial Services

866

113%

$116,562

Transportation and Logistics

1,080

109%

$68,994

Healthcare Distribution and Electronic Commerce Hospitality and Tourism Food Processing and Manufacturing Marketing, Design, and Publishing

9,091

90%

$77,220

2,606

89%

$98,865

20,612

77%

$26,643

470

69%

$69,767

871

56%

$91,635

Performing Arts

184

55%

$37,996

Agricultural Inputs and Services

997

27%

$56,179

Source: Lightcast, Pasco Economic Development Council, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

100

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS Hillsborough County

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HOUSING PERMITS, 2000-2023 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN UNITS

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Single Family Units

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Multifamily Units

+9,668

+3,886

+7,294

+3,554

+2,408

+5,185

Source: US Census Bureau, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

101

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY HOUSING PERMITS, 2000-2023 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN UNITS

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Single Family Units

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Multifamily Units

+1,977

+533

+1,012

+1,262

+908

+1,477

Source: US Census Bureau, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

102

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS Pasco County

PASCO COUNTY HOUSING PERMITS, 2000-2023 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN UNITS

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Single Family Units

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Multifamily Units

+5,397

+1,416

+5,350

+1,191

+655

+388

Source: US Census Bureau, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

103

CURRENT AFFORDABLE OWNER HOUSING DEFICIT Hillsborough County

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY OWNER HOUSEHOLDS & HOME VALUES BY AMI LEVEL + 20,390

Unit Surplus

200,000

Number of Units

180,000

Number of Owner HHs

160,000 140,000 120,000

+ 22,730 Unit Surplus

100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000

– 12,010 Unit Deficit

– 23,680 Unit Deficit

– 7,430 Unit Deficit

20,000 0 AMI [1]

<30% <30%

30-60% 30-60%

60-80% 60-80%

80-120% 80-120%

120% + 120%+

Max. Home Value [2]

$79,900

$150,700

$200,900

$301,800

>$301,800

[1] Income bands correspond roughly to 2023 AMI levels. Analysis assumes a 3-person household. [2] Affordable costs limit assumes that mortgage, insurance, and all other housing costs are ≤30% of income for a household at the top of a respective income range, given the household size assumption. The maximum affordable price for Hillsborough County is shown here. Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Florida Housing Finance Corporation, SB Friedman, Zillow

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

104

CURRENT AFFORDABLE OWNER HOUSING DEFICIT Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY OWNER HOUSEHOLDS & HOME VALUES BY AMI LEVEL 160,000

Number of Units

140,000

Number of Owner HHs

+ 22,490 Unit Surplus

120,000 100,000 + 8,550 Unit Surplus

80,000 60,000 40,000

– 8,510 Unit Deficit

– 17,910 Unit Deficit

– 4,610 Unit Deficit

20,000 0 AMI [1]

<30% <30%

30-60% 30-60%

60-80% 60-80%

80-120% 80-120%

120% + 120%+

Max. Home Value [2]

$81,800

$154,300

$205,800

$309,100

>$309,100

[1] Income bands correspond roughly to 2023 AMI levels. Analysis assumes a 3-person household. [2] Affordable costs limit assumes that mortgage, insurance, and all other housing costs are ≤30% of income for a household at the top of a respective income range, given the household size assumption. The maximum affordable price for Pinellas County is shown here. Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Florida Housing Finance Corporation, SB Friedman, Zillow

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

105

CURRENT AFFORDABLE OWNER HOUSING DEFICIT Pasco County

PASCO COUNTY OWNER HOUSEHOLDS & HOME VALUES BY AMI LEVEL 70,000

Number of Units

– 270 Unit Deficit

Number of Owner HHs

60,000 50,000

+ 6,760 Unit Surplus

40,000 30,000

– 390 Unit Deficit

– 6,140 Unit Deficit

20,000

+ 30 Unit Surplus

10,000 0 AMI [1]

<30% <30%

30-60% 30-60%

60-80% 60-80%

80-120% 80-120%

120% + 120%+

Max. Home Value [2]

$83,400

$157,400

$209,900

$315,400

>$315,400

[1] Income bands correspond roughly to 2023 AMI levels. Analysis assumes a 3-person household. [2] Affordable costs limit assumes that mortgage, insurance, and all other housing costs are ≤30% of income for a household at the top of a respective income range, given the household size assumption. The maximum affordable price for Pasco County is shown here. Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Florida Housing Finance Corporation, SB Friedman, Zillow

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

106

CURRENT AFFORDABLE RENTER HOUSING DEFICIT Hillsborough County

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY RENTER HOUSEHOLDS & UNIT RENTS BY AMI LEVEL 120,000

Number of Units

Number of Rental HHs

+ 60,900 Unit Surplus

100,000

80,000 60,000

– 32,630 Unit Deficit

– 10,440 Unit Deficit

– 36,830 Unit Deficit

+ 20,460 Unit Surplus

40,000 20,000 0 Rent Limits

<30%

30-60%

60-80%

80-120%

120%+

Studio

$456

$913

$1,216

$1,827

>$1,827

1-BR

$521

$1,043

$1,390

$2,088

>$2,088

2-BR

$622

$1,173

$1,564

$2,349

>$2,349

3-BR+

$750

$1,304

$1,738

$2,607

>$2,607

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

107

CURRENT AFFORDABLE RENTER HOUSING DEFICIT Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY RENTER HOUSEHOLDS & UNIT RENTS BY AMI LEVEL 70,000

Number of Units

Number of Rental HHs

60,000

+ 30,100 Unit Surplus

50,000 40,000

– 14,720 Unit Deficit

– 12,980 Unit Deficit

+ 13,790 Unit Surplus

<30%

30-60%

60-80%

80-120%

120%+

Studio

$456

$913

$1,216

$1,827

>$1,827

1-BR

$521

$1,043

$1,390

$2,088

>$2,088

2-BR

$622

$1,173

$1,564

$2,349

>$2,349

3-BR+

$750

$1,304

$1,738

$2,607

>$2,607

30,000 20,000

– 11,520 Unit Deficit

10,000 0 Rent Limits

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

108

CURRENT AFFORDABLE RENTER HOUSING DEFICIT Pasco County

PASCO COUNTY RENTER HOUSEHOLDS & UNIT RENTS BY AMI LEVEL 25,000

Number of Units

Number of Rental HHs

+ 10,160 Unit Surplus

20,000 + 2,900 Unit Surplus

15,000 10,000

– 10,570 Unit Deficit

+ 4,720 Unit Surplus

– 4,690 Unit Deficit

5,000 0 Rent Limits

<30%

30-60%

60-80%

80-120%

120%+

Studio

$456

$913

$1,216

$1,827

>$1,827

1-BR

$521

$1,043

$1,390

$2,088

>$2,088

2-BR

$622

$1,173

$1,564

$2,349

>$2,349

3-BR+

$750

$1,304

$1,738

$2,607

>$2,607

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

109

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS Tri-County Region

COST-BURDENED RENTERS BY COUNTY Hillsborough

Pinellas 52% Cost-Burdened

27% Severely CostBurdened

Pasco 53% Cost-Burdened

27% Severely CostBurdened

COST-BURDENED HOMEOWNERS BY COUNTY Hillsborough 49% Cost-Burdened

24% Severely CostBurdened

Pinellas 24% Cost-Burdened

10% Severely CostBurdened

Pasco 23% Cost-Burdened

25% Cost-Burdened 12% Severely CostBurdened

10% Severely CostBurdened

Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

110

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME Hillsborough County

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY COST-BURDENED RENTERS BY INCOME <30% AMI

68%

30-60% AMI

32%

60-80% AMI

80-120% AMI

120% AMI+

11% 47%

43%

50%

22%

Severely Cost-Burdened

77% 95%

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost-Burdened

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY COST-BURDENED OWNERS BY INCOME 21%

<30% AMI

21%

30-60% AMI

53% 20%

60-80% AMI

80-120% AMI

120% AMI+

16%

31%

27%

52%

27%

67%

14%

Severely Cost-Burdened

83% 95%

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost Burdened

Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

111

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY COST-BURDENED RENTERS BY INCOME <30% AMI

69%

30-60% AMI 60-80% AMI 80-120% AMI 120% AMI+

32% 9% 2%

12% 47%

42%

49%

19%

Severely Cost-Burdened

79% 93%

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost-Burdened

PINELLAS COUNTY COST-BURDENED OWNERS BY INCOME 20%

<30% AMI

21%

30-60% AMI

49% 16%

60-80% AMI

80-120% AMI

120% AMI+

19%

31%

26%

58%

20%

73%

14%

Severely Cost-Burdened

84% 95%

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost-Burdened

Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

112

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME Pasco County

PASCO COUNTY COST-BURDENED RENTERS BY INCOME <30% AMI

64%

30-60% AMI 60-80% AMI

22% 6%

80-120% AMI 120% AMI+

15% 50% 61%

20%

Severely Cost-Burdened

20% 29%

33%

PASCO COUNTY COST-BURDENED OWNERS BY INCOME

79%

44%

30-60% AMI

Not Cost-Burdened

11%

60-80% AMI

80-120% AMI

1% 12%

120% AMI+

96%

Cost-Burdened

<30% AMI

18%

24%

65%

20%

Severely Cost-Burdened

38%

75% 87% 97%

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost-Burdened

Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

113

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS BY RACE Hillsborough County

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY COST-BURDENED RENTERS BY RACE White Black Asian

23%

24%

Other Race

29%

Hispanic

27%

29% 13%

Severely Cost-Burdened

White

53%

32% 23%

HILLSBOROUGH COST-BURDENED OWNERS BY RACE

39%

25% 24%

Cost-Burdened

Black Asian

64%

12% 18%

79% 15%

67%

11%

81%

46%

Other Race

12%

16%

72%

49%

Hispanic

12%

17%

71%

Not Cost-Burdened

Severely Cost-Burdened

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost-Burdened

[1] Hispanic category includes people of any race that identify as Hispanic.. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

114

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS BY RACE Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY COST-BURDENED RENTERS BY RACE White

26%

Black Asian

25% 37%

24%

PINELLAS COUNTY COST-BURDENED OWNERS BY RACE

50% 29%

20%

35%

White

11%

Black

14%

Asian

56%

10%

Other Race

27%

29%

44%

Other Race

13%

Hispanic

25%

30%

45%

Hispanic

12%

Severely Cost-Burdened

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost-Burdened

13%

75%

15%

71%

14%

77%

15%

72%

13%

Severely Cost-Burdened

75%

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost-Burdened

[1] Hispanic category includes people of any race that identify as Hispanic.. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

115

COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS BY RACE Pasco County

PASCO COUNTY COST-BURDENED RENTERS BY RACE White

23%

Black Asian

25%

27% 11%

22%

Other Race

25%

Hispanic

23%

Severely Cost-Burdened

White

10%

Black

11%

Asian

13%

10%

46%

Other Race

12%

15%

74%

47%

Hispanic

11%

15%

74%

52%

26%

47% 68%

28% 30%

Cost-Burdened

PASCO COUNTY COST-BURDENED OWNERS BY RACE

Not Cost-Burdened

13%

77%

18%

Severely Cost-Burdened

71% 77%

Cost-Burdened

Not Cost-Burdened

[1] Hispanic category includes people of any race that identify as Hispanic.. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

116

POPULATION GROWTH Hillsborough County

NET ANNUAL MIGRATION TO HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY – TOP FLORIDA COUNTIES Miami-Dade County Broward County St. Lucie County Palm Beach County Brevard County Leon County Manatee County Polk County Pinellas County Pasco County -5,000

NET ANNUAL MIGRATION TO HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY – TOP STATES New York New Jersey Virginia Texas Illinois California Tennessee Colorado Washington Florida

People moving to Hillsborough County

People leaving Hillsborough County

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

-6,000

People moving to Hillsborough County

People leaving Hillsborough County

-4,000

-2,000

2,000

4,000

6,000

Source: 2020 ACS 5-Year Estimates, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

117

POPULATION GROWTH Pinellas County

NET ANNUAL MIGRATION TO PINELLAS COUNTY – TOP STATES

NET ANNUAL MIGRATION TO PINELLAS COUNTY – TOP FLORIDA COUNTIES Hillsborough County Palm Beach County Clay County Monroe County Miami-Dade County Citrus County St. Lucie County Leon County Polk County Pasco County -3,000

New York Pennsylvania Illinois Indiana Connecticut Virginia West Virginia Texas North Carolina Florida

People moving to Pinellas County

People leaving Pinellas County

-2,000

-1,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

-6,000

People moving to Pinellas County

People leaving Pinellas County

-4,000

-2,000

2,000

4,000

6,000

Source: 2020 ACS 5-Year Estimates, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

118

POPULATION GROWTH Pasco County

NET ANNUAL MIGRATION TO PASCO COUNTY – TOP FLORIDA COUNTIES Hillsborough County Pinellas County Palm Beach County Polk County Seminole County Marion County Alachua County Indian River County Citrus County Hernando County -6,000

NET ANNUAL MIGRATION TO PASCO COUNTY – TOP STATES Florida New York Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania Alaska Colorado Virginia Georgia North Carolina

People moving to Pasco County

People leaving Pasco County

-4,000

-2,000

2,000

4,000

6,000

-6,000

People moving to Pasco County

People leaving Pasco County

-4,000

-2,000

2,000

4,000

6,000

Source: 2020 ACS 5-Year Estimates, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

119

POPULATION GROWTH Hillsborough County

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY – POPULATION BY AGE 500,000

COHORT SHARE OF TOTAL POPULATION (DECLINING/INCREASING) 2020

2030

2035

400,000

<15

Children & Young Adults

18.2%

18.6%

18.5%

300,000

15-34

Young Professionals

28.1%

27.4%

26.9%

200,000

35-54

Middle-Aged

26.3%

26.4%

26.9%

100,000

55-74

Empty Nesters & Young Seniors

21.3%

19.9%

19.1%

75+

Older Seniors

6.1%

7.7%

8.6%

0 2020

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

2025

2030

2035

120

POPULATION GROWTH Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY – POPULATION BY AGE

COHORT SHARE OF TOTAL POPULATION (DECLINING/INCREASING)

350,000 300,000

2020

2030

2035

<15

Children & Young Adults

12.7%

13.6%

200,000

15-34

Young Professionals

21.1%

19.5%

19.2%

150,000

35-54

Middle-Aged

24.1%

22.8%

23.2%

55-74

Empty Nesters & Young Seniors

31.3%

28.4%

25.9%

75+

Older Seniors

10.9%

15.7%

18.1%

250,000

100,000 50,000 0 2020

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

2025

2030

2035

121

POPULATION GROWTH Pasco County

PASCO COUNTY – POPULATION BY AGE

COHORT SHARE OF TOTAL POPULATION (DECLINING/INCREASING)

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2020

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

2025

2030

2020

2030

2035

<15

Children & Young Adults

16.6%

16.1%

16.3%

15-34

Young Professionals

21.5%

22.5%

21.8%

35-54

Middle-Aged

24.9%

23.9%

24.8%

55-74

Empty Nesters & Young Seniors

27.3%

25.2%

23.8%

75+

Older Seniors

9.7%

12.2%

13.3%

2035

122

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION Hillsborough County

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH

250,000

300,000

200,000

250,000 200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0 <35

35-54 1 Person

2 People

55-74 3 People

4+ People

75+

2010

2015

2020

2025

15-34

35-54

55-74

2030

2035

75+

Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, ACS PUMS 2019-2023, BEBR, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

123

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER

PINELLAS COUNTY PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0 <35

35-54 1 Person

2 People

55-74 3 People

4+ People

75+

2010

2015

2020

2025

15-34

35-54

55-74

2030

2035

75+

Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, ACS PUMS 2019-2023, BEBR, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

124

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION Pasco County

PASCO COUNTY HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER

PASCO COUNTY PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH

100,000

120,000

80,000

100,000 80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 <35

35-54 1 Person

2 People

55-74 3 People

4+ People

75+

2010

2015

2020

2025

15-34

35-54

55-74

2030

2035

75+

Source: 2023 ACS 5-Year Estimates, ACS PUMS 2019-2023, BEBR, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

125

HOUSING TENURE Hillsborough County

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER BY TENURE Under 35 35-54

31%

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS BY AMI & TENURE <30% AMI

69% 62%

30-60% AMI

38%

60-80% AMI 55-74

75%

25%

75+

78%

22%

Owner

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

Renter

80-120% AMI 120%+ AMI

41%

59%

48%

52%

54%

46%

61%

39% 79% Owner

21% Renter

126

HOUSING TENURE Pinellas County

PINELLAS COUNTY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER BY TENURE Under 35 35-54

36%

PINELLAS COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS BY AMI & TENURE

64% 65%

35%

<30% AMI

57%

43%

30-60% AMI

60%

40%

60-80% AMI 54-74

79%

21%

75+

80%

20%

Owner

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

Renter

80-120% AMI 120%+ AMI

64%

36%

70%

30% 83%

Owner

17% Renter

127

HOUSING TENURE Pasco County

PASCO COUNTY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER BY TENURE Under 35

49%

35-54

PASCO COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS BY AMI & TENURE

51% 72%

28%

<30% AMI

65%

35%

30-60% AMI

69%

31%

60-80% AMI 54-74

83%

17%

75+

84%

16%

Owner

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

Renter

80-120% AMI 120%+ AMI

74%

26%

77%

23%

86% Owner

14% Renter

128

Appendix 2: Sample Affordable Homes

129

EXISTING AFFORDABLE OWNER UNITS 30-60% AMI | Max. Monthly Housing Costs: $1,173 HILLSBOROUGH (<$150,700

PINELLAS (<$154,300)

PASCO (<$157,400)

Tampa | $145,900 ($1,146/month) 3Bed, 1Bth | 792 SF

Saint Petersburg | $145,000 ($1,055/month) 1Bed, 1Bth | 576 SF

New Port Richey | $150,000 ($1,166/month) 2Bed, 2Bth | 1,152 SF

Gibsonton| $142,000 ($1,117/month) 3Bed, 1Bth | 1,106 SF

Tarpon Springs | $139,000 ($1,037/month) 2Bed, 2Bth | 696 SF

Zephyrhills| $120,000 ($959/month) 2Bed, 1.5Bth | 540 SF

Source: Zillow, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

130

EXISTING AFFORDABLE OWNER UNITS 60-80% AMI | Max. Monthly Housing Costs: $1,564 HILLSBOROUGH (<$200,900)

PINELLAS (<$205,800)

PASCO (<$209,900)

Tampa | $170,000 ($1,372/month) 3Bed, 1Bth | 820 SF

Saint Petersburg | $190,000 ($1,534/month) 3Bed, 2Bth | 1,012 SF

Port Richey | $192,000 ($1,538/month) 2Bed, 2Bth | 902 SF

Plant City | $160,900 ($1,510/month) 2Bed, 2Bth | 920 SF

Largo | $155,000 ($1,428/month) 1Bed, 1Bth | 905 SF

Holiday | $189,900 ($1,521/month) 2Bed, 2Bth | 1,134 SF

Source: Zillow, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

131

EXISTING AFFORDABLE OWNER UNITS 80-120% AMI | Max. Monthly Housing Costs: $2,349 HILLSBOROUGH (<$301,800)

PINELLAS (<$309,100)

PASCO (<$315,400)

Tampa | $290,000 ($2,340/month) 4Bed, 2Bth | 1,136 SF

Tarpon Springs | $290,000 ($2,342/month) 3Bed, 2Bth | 1,090 SF

New Port Richey | $292,500 ($2,344/month) 3Bed, 2Bth | 1,401 SF

Lithia | $265,000 ($2,313/month) 2Bed, 2Bth | 1,248 SF

Clearwater | $258,000 ($2,259/month) 2Bed, 3Bth | 1,088 SF

Odessa |$259,000 ($2,286/month) 2Bed, 3Bth | 1,240 SF

Source: Zillow, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

132

EXISTING AFFORDABLE RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS <30% AMI | Average Rents: $494-$682 HILLSBOROUGH

PINELLAS

PASCO

Metro 510 – Tampa Affordable – Rent Restricted

The Portland Apartments – Saint Petersburg Affordable – Rent Restricted

Arbors at Lester Lake – Dade City Market/Affordable

Westside Village – Plant City Affordable – Rent Restricted

Forest Lane Apartments – Pinellas Park Affordable – Rent Restricted

Village Walk Apartments - Zephyrhills Affordable – Rent Restricted

Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

133

EXISTING AFFORDABLE RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS 30-60% AMI | Average Rents: $858-$1,135 HILLSBOROUGH

PINELLAS

PASCO

Uptown Sky – Tampa Affordable

Palmetto Pointe – Pinellas Park Affordable – Rent Restricted

Taranger Square – New Port Richey Affordable

Fulham Terrace – Riverview Market-Rate

Harbour’s Edge – Saint Petersburg Market/Affordable – Rent Restricted

Osprey Pointe – Dade City Affordable – Rent Restricted

Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

134

EXISTING AFFORDABLE RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS 60-80% AMI | Average Rents: $1,090-$1,302 HILLSBOROUGH

PINELLAS

PASCO

Sabal Ridge II – Tampa Affordable – Rent Restricted

Garden Trail Apartments – Clearwater Affordable

Fort King Colony – Zephyrhills Affordable – Rent Restricted

Andrew Landing – Riverview Market-Rate

Parkside Commons – Pinellas Park Affordable

Weston Oak Apartment – Holiday Affordable – Rent Restricted

Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

135

EXISTING AFFORDABLE RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS 80-100% AMI | Average Rents: $1,709-$2,017 HILLSBOROUGH

PINELLAS

PASCO

Miles Ybor – Tampa Market-Rate

Palms of Pinellas – Lago Market-Rate

Colina Ranch Hill – San Antonio Market-Rate

Tapestry East Bay – Apollo Beach Market-Rate

Bayside Court – Clearwater Market/Affordable – Rent Restricted

Charleston Wesley Chapel Market-Rate

Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

136

EXISTING AFFORDABLE RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS 100-120% AMI | Average Rents: $1,985-$2,228 HILLSBOROUGH

PINELLAS

PASCO

Rise Sereno – Wimauma Market-Rate

Icaria on Pinellas – Tarpon Springs Market-Rate

The Elliot – Land O Lakes Market-Rate

Douglas Grand at Telecom Parkway – Tampa Market-Rate

Addison at Skyway Marina – Saint Petersburg Market-Rate

Mosby at Avalon Park – Wesley Chapel Market-Rate

Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC

137

The Housing Equation