MARKET UPDATE OCTOBER 2026
PROTEIN POULTRY SEAFOOD DAIRY CANNED & DRIED BAKERY & STARCH BEVERAGE & CATERING LABOUR, TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS FORWARD VIEW
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 1
Dear Customers, As we enter the final quarter of 2026, market conditions remain mixed across the foodservice industry. Several commodities continue to trade below earlier peak levels, creating opportunities for improved buying conditions, while proteins, seafood and selected dairy categories remain under pressure from restricted supply and elevated production costs. Sugar, orange juice and parts of the vegetable oil market offer some of the clearest opportunities for cost recovery. Cocoa remains below the extreme levels seen earlier in the cycle but has returned to greater volatility, while coffee continues to ease gradually from historically high values. Protein market remains more challenging. Beef and lamb continue to be support by limited livestock availability, chicken is facing renewed supply pressure, while pork and turkey remain comparatively balanced. Seafood continues to be affected by restricted whitefish supply and reduced milk-fat availability is supporting cream and butter markets. Weather remains an important factor across agricultural commodities as we move towards 2027 while energy, labour, logistics and packaging continue to influence finished product costs. This report outlines the current market position across key categories, the principal drivers affecting price and availability, and the likely direction of travel through Q4 and into 2027. Warm regards, Sysco Ireland
2 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
CONTENTS 04
YOUR SPECIALIST FOODSERVICE TEAM Centre of Plate | Produce | Bakery & Dessert Catering Supplies & Beverage
06
PROTEIN
11
POULTRY
12
SEAFOOD
14
DAIRY
18
CANNED & DRIED
24
Beef | Pork | Lamb
Chicken | Turkey
Whitefish | Salmon
Cream | Milk | Butter | Cheese
Oil | Jam | Tinned Tuna
BAKERY & STARCH Sugar | Cocoa | Wheat | Frozen Potatoes
28
BEVERAGE & CATERING
30
LABOUR, TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
32
Orange Juice | Coffee | Packaging
Petroleum
FORWARD VIEW
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 3
SPECIALISTS
YOUR SPECIALIST FOODSERVICE TEAM The global food market can be unpredictable, but your supply doesn’t have to be. Our specialist team is here to help you stay stocked with quality options that fit your budget. Whether it’s discovering new products, exploring different price tiers, or finding the best value, we’ve got solutions for you. Talk to your ASM to arrange a meeting.
Centre of Plate
Produce
Wayne brings nearly thirty years of food industry experience, including over two decades as a craft butcher. He combines specialist protein knowledge with proven sales expertise to deliver tailored solutions and trusted relationships for customers.
Patrick joined Sysco over 6 years ago. He has a wide range of experience in the sector from growing potatoes on his family farm to the early days of his career prepping veg in a hotel and working as a kitchen porter. Patrick enjoys meeting new people as part of his role, supporting his customers to improve their business.
Centre of Plate
Produce
Neil has been part of the Sysco team for over 20 years, with the last decade dedicated to Centre of Plate. His deep knowledge helps customers make informed decisions, adding real value to their business.
Alasdair joined the business over 20 years ago, following 25 years as a chef working in busy restaurants. He began his career with Sysco in purchasing before moving to a produce specialist role.
WAYNE WALSH
NEIL BRISLANE
PATRICK KEOHANE
ALASDAIR MacINNES
Centre of Plate
Produce
Phill joined the business in 2023 after 18 years working as a Chef. His roles were primarily in Fine Dining establishments throughout Northern Ireland, but he also spent time in Australia.
Ruth joined Sysco in 2024 and has over 20 years’ experience within fresh produce. Ruth enjoys working in partnership with her customers to come up with the best solution for their business.
PHILL WARING
RUTH POLLOCK
Centre of Plate
Produce
Kelan has worked in the industry as a chef for over 25 years, in some of the finest kitchens in the UK and Ireland. He was honoured to be part of a team that cooked in the Hague, representing Ireland and Irish produce.
Simon has over 35 years’ experience in the industry and is an expert in the industry and the produce category. Simon is always willing to go above and beyond to ensure the highest quality service.
KELAN McMICHAEL
4 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
SIMON DOHERTY
Produce
Catering Supplies & Beverage
NOEL RYAN
JONATHAN O’SHEA
Noel joined Sysco in 2022, however with 35 years in the produce business he brings a wealth of experience to his role. Noel’s belief in Sysco’s customer centric values plays an important role in how he does his job.
Jonathan joined Sysco in 2022 with over 18 years experience as a chef. Jonathan has vast knowledge and experience in the hospitality industry having worked in restaurants across all levels – from Gastro pubs to Michelin Star.
Produce
Bakery & Dessert
ALISON KIDD
BRONAGH BEATTIE
Since joining Sysco in 2022, Alison has cultivated strong relationships with many of our key customers. With a deep understanding of the fresh produce market, Alison provides solutions that drive growth and success for her customers.
Bronagh joined Sysco in 2023 and has over 20 years’ experience as a chef, working in fine dining restaurants, cafes and hotels worldwide. She enjoys supporting her customers with new ideas and innovation.
Catering Supplies & Beverage
Bakery & Dessert
JOANNE McCUSKER
BRENDAN SEWELL
Joanne joined Sysco in 2024 and brings over 30 years’ experience to her role. She began her career in the licensed trade and has owned two coffee shops before progressing into sales.
More than 32 years’ experience in the food industry in Ireland gives Brendan a deep understanding of the sector. Previously working as a Chef and a pastry chef in 5* Hotels, Brendan has a wealth of knowledge to share with his customers.
Catering Supplies & Beverage
Bakery & Dessert
Patrick joined Sysco in 2021 and prior to this spent time in multiple FMCG and foodservice businessess. He now works as a sales specialist in Dublin northeast, offering practical advice and support, while identifying solutions to help them reach their full potential. In his spare time Patrick enjoys attending his kids sporting activites. He is also a keen horse racing syndicate member, aiming to unlock hidden potential in horses that they own.
Elaine joined the business in 2024 and brings over 15 years experience in the industry to her role. After training as a chef, Elaine worked in restaurants, hotels and cafes across Ireland and London, later opening her own café In Clare.
PATRICK KEOGH
ELAINE MEADE
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 5
PROTEIN
PROTEIN
BEEF The Irish beef market remains firm as we enter Q4, with supply continuing to run below prior-year levels. Irish cattle slaughtering is currently 5.7% behind 2025, broadly in line with Bord Bia’s forecast for a 6% decline in production this year. Beef prices have remained resilient throughout 2026, supported by lower cattle availability and steady processor demand. While some customer resistance has emerged, limited supply continues to provide a strong floor under the market, with factories maintaining relatively firm quotes. Demand across the EU remains robust and has been further strengthened by restrictions on Brazilian beef imports, increasing demand for alternative supply sources and creating additional export opportunities for Irish processors. While some inflationary pressure is forecast in Q4 2026, selected products are expected to trade below the same period in 2025. This is particularly evident in seasonal products such as mince and burgers, where prices are expected to soften through the winter months.
KEY POINTS PRICING Remains firm overall, although selected seasonal lines are expected to soften versus Q4 2025. • S upply: Irish cattle slaughtering is running 5.7% below 2025 levels, broadly in line with Bord Bia forecasts. • Demand: Domestic and EU demand remains strong. • E xports: Restrictions on Brazilian beef are supporting demand for alternative European supply and creating opportunities for Irish processors. • S easonal movement: Mince and burgers are expected to show some winter deflation. • M arket Risk: Tight cattle availability continues to limit the likelihood of significant market-wide deflation. OUTLOOK Beef prices are expected to remain elevated moving into 2027. While customer purchasing behaviour may continue to be influenced by higher costs, constrained supply, strong export demand and ongoing production declines across Ireland and key European markets should continue to support the market. Sysco offers a wide range of beef cuts and product solutions that can help offset inflationary pressures while maintaining menu quality and margin. Customers can speak with their ASM or Centre of Plate specialist to explore suitable alternatives.
Sheep and cattle kill down on 2025 levels in first seven months Source: www.farmersjournal.ie
Factory prices strengthen as cattle supplies tighten across Ireland Source: Irish Independent
Brazil ban should boost demand and farm-gate prices for Irish beef Source: Irish Farmers Journal
6 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 7
PROTEIN
LAMB
The pork market remains well supplied across Ireland and Europe, supporting consistent availability and limiting the risk of significant price inflation. After a period of decline earlier in the year, pig prices have largely stabilised, with modest improvements recorded in recent months. Strong supply, steady consumer demand and seasonal factors have helped the market move into a more balanced position. Looking towards year end, increased seasonal demand is expected, but current supply levels should continue to support availability.
Lamb remains one of the strongest performing protein categories from a pricing perspective, with market prices continuing at historically high levels. Unlike previous years, pricing did not experience the typical sharp decline following the Easter trading period, reflecting continued supply constraints across Ireland and Europe. Lower sheep numbers and reduced production levels continue to restrict availability, while demand remains resilient across domestic and export markets.
KEY POINTS
PROTEIN
PORK
KEY POINTS • P ricing: Remains at elevated levels and is not expected to decrease materially in the near term. • S upply: Tight availability continues to be the primary market driver. • D emand: Stable across both domestic and export markets. • P roduction: Lower sheep numbers and reduced output continue to restrict supply. • M arket Risk: Greater risk of further price increases than price declines. OUTLOOK Lamb is expected to remain the most inflationary meat category through the remainder of 2026. Supply and demand conditions should continue to support firm pricing, with limited risk of any significant price reduction.
• P ricing: Stable, with potential for modest increases towards year end. • S upply: Strong and reliable, supporting consistent availability. • Demand: Steady, with seasonal uplift expected in Q4. • C ost Pressures: Feed, energy and processing costs remain elevated, supporting current price levels. • M arket Risk: Low risk of significant price volatility in the near term. OUTLOOK Pork pricing is expected to remain stable through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. There is a slight risk of upward movement as seasonal demand increases.
LIFESTYLE IMAGE
Weekly pigmeat prices by country for selected year EU
IRELAND
180
175
170
165
160
155
Sheep prices: more bite but no change in base quotes
150
145
FEB 2026
MAR 2026
Source: Bord Bia
8 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
APR 2026
MAY 2026
JUN 2026
JUL 2026
AUG 2026
Agents appear more active in sourcing lambs, which is reflected in a livelier trade in some marts. Sourse: Irish Farmers Journal
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 9
POULTRY
POULTRY
CHICKEN Chicken remains the protein of choice for many foodservice operators as customers continue to seek value-driven menu options. However, European supply conditions are becoming increasingly challenging.
KEY POINTS • I mports: The EU suspension of Brazilian poultry imports from September 2026 is reducing available supply. • Demand: Retail and foodservice demand remains strong.
Chicken (Indexed)
• P roduction: Prolonged hot weather has affected bird performance and average weights.
130 125
• C ost Pressures: Feed, labour and energy remain elevated.
120 115
• M arket Risk: Competition for European-produced poultry is increasing as buyers seek alternative supply.
110 105 100 95 6 AU G2
6 N2 JU
R2 6 AP
5
26 FEB
C2
5
DE
25
T2 OC
5
AU G
JU N2
R2 5 AP
FEB
25
90
OUTLOOK The outlook remains firmly inflationary. Reduced Brazilian availability, resilient demand and production challenges are expected to tighten supply further into 2027.
TURKEY Turkey has been one of the quieter protein markets during 2026, with supply and demand remaining relatively balanced.
KEY POINTS • P ricing: Market movement has been driven more by production costs than acute shortages. • Supply: Availability has remained comparatively stable. • C ost Pressures: Energy, labour and feed remain important. • P roduction: Producers remain cautious about expanding capacity. • D emand: Seasonal purchasing is expected to increase during Q4. OUTLOOK The market should remain relatively stable, although stronger seasonal demand may place additional pressure on availability and processing capacity towards year end.
10 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 11
SEAFOOD
WHITEFISH KEY POINTS
Norwegian Cod increased 32% YoY in June 2024
Whitefish remains one of the most challenging seafood categories from both a procurement and pricing perspective. NOK/MT
• P ollock: Demand is increasing as buyers seek alternatives to more expensive species.
Yr Avg 3
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
DEC
Pollock (Indexed)
2025
JU
N2
6
6 R2
FEB
C2 DE
AP
5
5 T2
AU G
2026
OC
5 N2 JU
R2
25 FEB
2024
26
Norwegian Cod increased 32% YoY in June
25
OUTLOOK Whitefish pricing is expected to remain elevated until quota availability and catches improve materially.
5
• M arket Risk: Tight availability across one species continues to transfer demand into alternatives.
170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80
• P ricing: The source charts show Norwegian cod 32% higher year-on-year in June and Norwegian haddock 27.4% higher.
NOV
26
• H addock: Catch performance has improved, but strong substitution demand has prevented significant price relief.
2026
AU G
• C od: Reduced quotas and lower landings continue to restrict availability.
2025
110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
AP
SEAFOOD
SEAFOOD
Yr Avg 3
80,000
NOK/MT
70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 JAN
Salmon Feed Cost Index
Athlantic Salmon Europe Feed Cost Index
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
SALMON KEY POINTS
1,450
Salmon supply is currently adequate, but rising production costs and wider seafood-market strength continue to support pricing.
1,350
• Supply: Current availability remains sufficient.
1,550
• Demand: Current availability remains sufficient. 1,250
• Costs: Feed remains an important production expense. • C limate: Environmental conditions continue to represent a biological risk.
1,150
• M arket Position: Salmon retains a premium position while benefiting from pressure in competing seafood categories.
1,050 0,950
12 | Sysco Market Update October 2026 12
6 L2 JU
26 MA R
NO V2 5
5 L2 JU
25 MA R
NO V2 4
JU
L2
4
0,850
OUTLOOK Salmon pricing is expected to remain firm through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, with limited indication of a significant downward correction.
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 13
DAIRY
DAIRY
DAIRY MILK KEY POINTS Milk intakes are expected to ease in line with normal seasonal trends following heat-related production pressure during August. • P roduction: August heat stress negatively affected output. • W eather: More moderate temperatures may support some recovery. • S easonality: Milk volumes are expected to decline as the season progresses. • M arket Risk: The extent of any weather-related recovery remains uncertain. OUTLOOK The rate of seasonal decline and the extent of any production recovery will be the main factors influencing the market in the coming weeks.
CREAM KEY POINTS The cream market strengthened significantly during August as lower milk supply and declining milk-fat levels restricted fresh availability. • Pricing: Values opened around €4,100/MT. • P eak: Prices reached approximately €5,300/MT on 26 August. • S upply: Lower milk-fat levels constrained fresh cream production. • D emand: Strong buying across the dairy-fat complex added further upward pressure. OUTLOOK Cream is expected to remain firm while milk-fat availability remains restricted.
14 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 15
DAIRY
DAIRY
DAIRY CHEESE KEY POINTS The cheese market is mixed, with pricing trends varying by product type. Mozzarella, Gouda and Edam are seeing better availability and more competition between suppliers, which is putting some downward pressure on prices. Cheddar remains firmer, particularly mature and specialist products, where ageing, consistent quality and reliable supply remain important to buyers. • P ricing: Mozzarella, Gouda and Edam are facing more competitive pricing. • S upply: Better availability is putting pressure on standard cheese varieties. • M arket Dynamics: These products respond quickly to changes in milk supply and short-term production levels. • C heddar: Mature and specialist cheddar remains better supported. • C ustomer Demand: Buyers continue to pay a premium for consistent quality, ageing and dependable product performance. OUTLOOK Mozzarella, Gouda and Edam may continue to see more competitive pricing if supply remains healthy. Mature and specialist cheddar is expected to remain firmer due to longer ageing periods and continued demand for consistent quality and performance.
BUTTER KEY POINTS Butter strengthened as reduced milk-fat availability constrained production. • Supply: Lower fat availability is restricting butter output. • Cream: High cream prices are making cream sales more attractive to processors. • Production: Processors have greater incentive to prioritise cream over butter manufacture. • Market Visibility: Near-term availability remains uncertain. OUTLOOK Butter values are expected to remain supported while cream prices remain high and milk-fat availability stays constrained.
16 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 17
CANNED & DRIED
CANNED & DRIED
CANNED & DRIED Q3 2026 Global Edible Oils Market Report Vegetable oil markets remain elevated this quarter. Rapeseed prices have been supported by tighter EU crop expectations. Sunflower oil prices have softened due to improved Black Sea production prospects. Soybean oil remains firm on global demand and biofuel consumption. Olive oil remains historically expensive despite some recovery in Spanish production.
Indicative Market Price Comparison Q3 2026 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
RAPESEED
SUNFLOWER
SOYBEAN
OLIVE OIL
RAPESEED OIL KEY POINTS Rapeseed oil remains firm, supported by tighter European crop expectations and continued biodiesel demand. • P ricing: European futures traded around €540–€555/t during Q3 2026. • S upply: Weather-related concerns have affected European crop expectations. • Demand: Biodiesel continues to support consumption. • O rigins: France and Germany remain key European producing countries. OUTLOOK Rapeseed oil is expected to remain relatively stable but elevated, with limited immediate scope for significant deflation.
18 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 19
CANNED & DRIED
OO03 - OLIVE OIL EX-VIRGIN BRINDISI IT (ALGO)
SUNFLOWER OIL KEY POINTS
Extra virgin average producer price excluding VAT | Brindisi, Italy | Extra vergine Brindisi
Sunflower oil currently offers a more favourable buying position than several competing vegetable oils.
10
• P ricing: The source records values around US$1,340–1,370/t FOB Black Sea.
8 Target 11
• S upply: Improved Ukrainian crop expectations are supporting softer pricing.
9
7
6
• O rigins: Ukraine and Russia remain the dominant global suppliers. • M arket Risk: Regional and geopolitical volatility remains an important factor. OUTLOOK Sunflower oil currently provides the strongest opportunity for procurement savings within the edible oils category.
CANNED & DRIED
CANNED & DRIED
CANNED & DRIED
Target 10
8
4
SOYBEAN OIL KEY POINTS
Target 12 Jul
Oct
% Next 5 Month Change
Soybean oil remains firm, supported by food manufacturing demand, export activity and biofuel consumption.
Apr
2026
% Next 6 Month Change
31.89%
14.09%
• Demand: Food manufacturing consumption remains strong.
Jul
Oct
% Next 12 Month Change
3.00%
2027
Apr
% Next 18 Month Change
4.06%
OLIVE OIL KEY POINTS
• Biofuel: Renewable diesel continues to support US usage.
Spanish olive oil production has improved from previous drought-affected seasons, although market values remain significantly above long-term averages.
• Origins: Brazil remains the largest export origin. • Market Risk: Biofuel-related demand could continue to support pricing.
• S pain: Remains the largest producer and principal European pricing benchmark.
OUTLOOK The market is likely to remain firmer than sunflower oil, with limited near-term deflation expected.
• Italy: Continues to command premium pricing. • A lternatives: Greece and Portugal offer comparatively more competitive supply positions. • M arket Risk: Spanish harvest performance remains central to future pricing.
Origin Variance
OUTLOOK Further production recovery could improve market balance, but olive oil remains the highest inflation-risk category within the edible oils section.
5,000 4,000
COUNTRY COMPARISON
3,000 2,000 1,000
EU
20 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
UKRAINE
BRAZIL
USA
SPAIN
Country Spain Ukraine Brazil USA France/Germany
Commodity Olive Oil Sunflower Oil Soybean Oil Soybean Oil Rapeseed
Market Position Largest Producer Largest Producer Largest Producer Biofuel Support Key EU Producers
Q3 Trend Elevated Softening Firm Firm Firm
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 21
TINNED TUNA KEY POINTS
Thai skipjack tuna prices are trading 35.5% higher YOY
The increase in jam pricing is being driven by a combination of structural cost pressures rather than a single commodity issue. The most significant factors are higher mandatory fruit content under the revised EU Breakfast Directive, ongoing inflation in fruit commodities, particularly raspberries and strawberries, and continued pressure from labour, energy, production, packaging and compliance costs.
Skipjack tuna, frozen whole rounf > 1.8kg, landed in Bangkok, Thailand CIF
Tuna markets remain firm as difficult fishing conditions continue to restrict raw-material availability.
2,200 2,100
• S kipjack: Thai skipjack increased 9.1% during the quarter.
2,000 1,900 1,800 S/MT
CANNED & DRIED
JAM KEY POINTS
CANNED & DRIED
• Y ellowfin: Vigo prices increased 2.4% during August.
1,700 1,600
• S upply: Accumulated yellowfin and skipjack imports into Thailand are down 6.8%.
1,500 1,400
• R egulation: Minimum fruit content increases from 35% to 45% for jam and from 45% to 50% for extra jam. • F ruit Costs: Raspberries, strawberries and other berries remain exposed to adverse weather, lower crop yields and higher farming inputs. • A gricultural Inputs: Fertiliser, energy and irrigation costs continue to influence fruit pricing. • L abour: Wage inflation and labour shortages remain important across agriculture and food manufacturing. • E nergy & Production: Cooking, concentration, refrigeration and storage remain energy-intensive. • P ackaging: Glass, plastic, metal lids and labels continue to add cost. • C ompliance: Reformulation, label changes and regulatory implementation create additional expense. OUTLOOK Jam pricing is expected to remain under pressure as higher fruit requirements combine with ongoing inflation in fruit, labour, energy, production and packaging costs.
• F ishing: Conditions in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean remain challenging.
1,300 1,200 JAN
FEB
MAR 2024
APR
MAY 2025
JUN
JUL 2026
AUG
SEP Yr Avg 3
OCT
NOV
DEC
• M arket Risk: Reduced Taiwanese exports into Thailand have added further supply pressure.
Key Cost Drivers
OUTLOOK The end of the seasonal FAD ban may support improved catches and some pricing relief, although near-term conditions remain firm.
Higher Fruit Content Requirements The EU Breakfast Directive increases minimum fruit content from 35% to 45% for jam and from 45% to 50% for extra jam. This directly increases the amount of fruit required per kilogram of finished product and reduces the proportion of lower-cost ingredients such as sugar. Fruit Commodity Inflation Fruit remains the largest raw-material cost within jam production. Berry markets are being affected by adverse weather across Europe, lower crop yields in key producing countries, higher farming input costs and labour shortages during harvesting periods. Labour Cost Inflation Jam and fruit processing are labour-intensive. Higher statutory minimum wages, labour shortages and increased recruitment and retention costs are affecting fruit preparation, quality inspection, cooking, packaging and distribution.
8W63 - TUNA YFIN FZN WH > 10kg cif ES EBP 2.8 2.6 2.4
Higher Production and Energy Costs Jam production requires significant energy for cooking, concentration, fruit preparation, storage and packaging. Higher fruit-content requirements may also increase processing demands.
2.2 2 1.8 OCT
Packaging and Regulatory Compliance Manufacturers must absorb higher costs for packaging materials, product reformulation, label updates and compliance with the revised Breakfast Directive. 22 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
NOV
DEC
2025
% Next 5 Month Change
NA
FEB
MAR
APR
M AY
JUN
JUL
% M & M Change
2.04%
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
2026
% Q & Q Change
0%
FEB
MAR
APR
M AY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
% Y &Y Change
13.64% Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 23
CANNED & DRIED
CANNED & DRIED
BAKERY & STARCH
BAKERY & STARCH
BAKERY & STARCH SUGAR KEY POINTS The sugar market remains broadly balanced, with pricing stable compared with mid-2026 and below earlier peak levels. • Pricing: Current market values remain relatively stable. • S upply: Global supply and demand are broadly balanced. • W eather: Growing conditions in key producing regions remain the principal source of short-term volatility. • O pportunity: Current conditions continue to support supplier cost discussions. OUTLOOK The near-term market is expected to remain relatively stable, although adverse weather could quickly change crop expectations and pricing.
WHEAT KEY POINTS The wheat market has strengthened significantly as European drought conditions affect crop yields and tighten supply expectations. • P ricing: European wheat has risen by more than 20% from 2026 lows. • W eather: Drought across Europe has affected crop performance. • T rade: Black Sea export uncertainty continues to create volatility. • C osts: Energy, fertiliser and logistics remain supportive of pricing. OUTLOOK Wheat prices are expected to remain elevated through the remainder of the year, supported by tighter supply and continued trade uncertainty.
24 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 25
BAKERY & STARCH
BAKERY & STARCH
BAKERY & STARCH COCOA KEY POINTS Cocoa remains below the extreme levels reached earlier in the market cycle, but the market strengthened again through August. • L ondon: Prices increased 8.4% month-on-month, from £4,402/MT to £4,773/MT. • N ew York: Prices increased 12.0%, from $5,939/MT to $6,650/MT. • S upply: West African crop performance remains the most important market driver. • W eather: The source indicates a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño event developing in late 2026. • R egional Risk: Drier conditions in Indonesia and excessive rainfall in Ecuador could affect production and harvesting. OUTLOOK Cocoa is expected to remain volatile through Q4, with West African weather and crop development likely to determine market direction.
FROZEN POTATOES KEY POINTS The frozen potato market is becoming increasingly supported by concerns surrounding the 2026/27 European crop. • Weather: Drought and heatwave conditions are threatening yields. • Acreage: Planting areas are estimated to be approximately 15% lower across Belgium and France. • Production: The source forecasts combined production approximately 6.4 million tonnes below 2025 levels, representing a reduction of around 40%. • Stocks: Current inventories remain relatively comfortable. • Market Risk: Attention is shifting towards the much smaller forthcoming harvest.
Prices increased 12% from $5,939/MT to $6,650/MT. 26 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
OUTLOOK Frozen potato pricing is expected to strengthen through the remainder of the year as reduced acreage and adverse weather tighten forward supply expectations.
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 27
BEVERAGE & PACKAGING ORANGE JUICE KEY POINTS
COFFEE KEY POINTS
Orange juice continues to show deflation following the significant correction from previous peak pricing.
Coffee prices have eased gradually as supply expectations improve, although values remain high compared with historical averages.
• P ricing: Market values remain well below earlier highs. • S upply: Improved availability has helped rebalance the market. • P rocurement: Current conditions provide an opportunity to pursue available supplier reductions. • M arket Risk: Regional weather remains capable of disrupting crop supply. OUTLOOK Further cost recovery opportunities should be explored while market conditions remain favourable, with weather the main risk to continued easing.
BEVERAGE & CATERING
BEVERAGE & CATERING
• S upply: Better crop expectations are improving sentiment. • P ricing: Recent reductions remain modest relative to previous inflation. • W eather: Growing conditions across major producing regions remain important. • M arket Risk: The category remains sensitive to any renewed concern around production. OUTLOOK Further easing may emerge, but meaningful deflation is likely to remain limited while market values stay well above long-term averages.
PACKAGING KEY POINTS Plastic, glass and paper packaging costs remain elevated despite improvements in some underlying commodity markets. • L abour: Wage inflation continues to affect production. • Energy: Manufacturing remains exposed to electricity and gas prices. • L ogistics: Freight and distribution continue to influence finished costs. • Regulation: Compliance requirements are adding structural expense. • O pportunity: Efficiency and specification reviews may offer more potential than raw-material deflation alone. OUTLOOK Broad packaging deflation remains limited, with labour, energy, logistics and regulatory costs continuing to support current levels.
28 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 29
LABOUR, TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
LABOUR, TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
LABOUR, TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS
PETROLEUM & ENERGY KEY POINTS Energy remains an important underlying cost risk across manufacturing, transport, refrigeration and distribution. • P etroleum: Oil markets remain exposed to geopolitical and supply-side developments. • M anufacturing: Energy costs continue to influence processor economics. • L ogistics: Fuel movements can feed directly into transport and distribution costs. • M arket Risk: Renewed energy inflation would affect several food categories simultaneously. OUTLOOK Energy should continue to be monitored as a crosscategory inflation risk through the remainder of 2026.
30 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 31
FORWARD VIEW
FORWARD VIEW The market entering Q4 2026 presents a mixed procurement picture. Opportunities for cost recovery remain strongest across orange juice, sugar and sunflower oil, while cocoa should be monitored carefully following renewed volatility. Across proteins, pork and turkey remain comparatively balanced, while beef, lamb and chicken continue to require closer management. Whitefish supply remains restricted, while dairy fats are expected to remain firm until milk and fat availability improves. Weather will remain one of the most significant variables moving into 2027. Cocoa,
32 | Sysco Market Update October 2026
coffee, sugar, fruit, wheat and other agricultural categories remain exposed to adverse growing conditions, while energy, labour, logistics and packaging continue to place structural pressure on finished-product costs. Get in touch with our team of specialists for support on any alternative products, specification reviews and sourcing solutions to manage cost while maintaining quality, consistency and menu performance.
Sysco Market Update October 2026 | 33
MARKET UPDATE OCTOBER 2026
34 | Sysco Market Update October 2026