The Swedish North Star, continuously published since 1872. Price per copy $3.50. Volume 148 No. 6, April 15, 2020.
dashboard | april 15, 2020 SCANDINAVIAN QUIZ
what major holiday was King Carl 1 On XVI Gustaf born in 1946?
Smaller bonfires this year
April 30 marks the end of winter in Sweden with a most important, festive celebration that almost ranks alongside Christmas and Midsummer. Valborg (AKA Walpurgis Night, or Vappu in Finnish, the eve of St. Walpurga’s feast day) is a popular celebration in many parts of Sweden, and especially in the old university towns of Uppsala, Lund and Gothenburg, where people gather materials for their bonfires months ahead of time. Lighting bonfires is an ancient custom related to keeping away evil spirits, demons and witches. For most Swedes nowadays, however, Valborgmässafton (Walpurgis Eve) is seen as a celebration of the end of the winter season, and there is no better way to celebrate than with fire and singing spring songs, many from the 19th century. For a feel of the good old Viking days, the Skansen Museum in Stockholm still hosts the largest and most historic Valborgmässoafton celebration. This year, it wouldn’t be surprising if many people are planning smaller celebrations in their backyards, perhaps sharing a bonfire between several households but enjoying hot dogs, songs and revelry within a safe social distance of each other.
Name’s Days of the Swedish Calendar Namnsdagar i Mars
April 15 April 16 April 17 April 18 April 19 April 20 April 21 April 22 April 23 April 24 April 25 April 26 April 27 April 28 April 29 April 30 April 15
Olivia/Oliver Patrik/Patricia Elias/Elis Valdemar/Volmar Olaus/Ola Amalia/Amelie Anneli/Annika Allan/Glenn Georg/Göran Vega Markus Teresia/Terese Engelbrekt Ture/Tyra Tyko Mariana |
New York Chicago Stockholm Kiruna Lund Los Angeles 2 NORDSTJERNAN
2 How do the Swedes finish this expression? “There’s no such thing as bad weather, only bad ___” A) attitudes B) clothes C) cheese D) forecasts
8 Ingrid Bergman won how many Oscars? A)None B)1 C) 2 D) 3
3 Since 1953, Greenland has been the territory of which Nordic country? A) the Faroe Islands B) Sweden C) Denmark D) Iceland 4 Which Swedish king contributed to Napoleon’s defeat and fall? A) Karl XIV Johan B) Håkan the Red C) Gustav II Adolph D) Oscar I
5 The Swedish Church/Svenska Kyrkan in America has how many locations? A) 3 B) 7 C) 25 D) 50
CULTURE
Namnsdagar
7 How old does a Swede have to be to drink Malört in Chicago? A) 15 B) 16 C) 18 D) 21
9 Which of the 29 Nordic dog breeds is shared as a “native” by all five Nordic countries? A) Norwegian Elkhound B) Finnish Hound C) Swedish Vallhund D) Samoyed 10 What is the only mammal native to Iceland? A) human B) polar bear C) arctic fox D) seal
Answers: 1:C, 2:B, 3:C, 4:A, 5:B, 6:A, 7:D, 8:D, 9:D, 10:C
Swedes will likely have fires like this one in the Mich. Consul General’s backyard a few years ago.
A) Christmas B) Easter C) Valborg D) Midsommar
6 King Sverker I the Elder, who was killed by his coachman on Christmas Day in 1156, had what nickname? A) Clubfoot B) Redhead C) St. Nick D) Grandpa
April
Vega – April 24 As a Swedish woman’s name, Vega has been used since 1874 and became popular when the ship Vega returned to Stockholm after sailing through the Northeast Passage in 1878-1880; the name was introduced to the almanac as a tribute to the expedition. Vega is unusual among adults today, but it is slowly gaining popularity again. Tyko – April 29 Tyko, Tycko or Tycho is a man’s name whose origins are unclear. It is believed to be a Latinization of the medieval name Tyke or Tyge, a common Viking name. Another explanation is that it comes from the Greek word meaning happiness, or it is a short form of Torkel. Like many names still on the namndagar calendar, Tyko is nowadays unusual, more often used as a nickname.
founded in new york city in september 1872
Sunrise & Sunset
Nordstjernan (ISSN 1059-7670), founded in New York City in September 1872, is published by Swedish News, Inc., 570 Lexington Ave, New York, NY 10022 • Readers services and editorial submissions: P.O. Box 1710, New Canaan, CT 06840 Periodicals Postage paid at New York, NY, and additional mailing offices. www.nordstjernan.com, Nordstjernan is published semimonthly, except for the months of April, April, September when it is monthly and Augustwith no issue.
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this week…
April TO DO KEEP YOUR DISTANCE, stay home to the extent possible. Avoid becoming isolated, use other means to connect, don’t risk others’ or your own health by venturing out on errands without good reason. Exercise, spend time outside if you can. If you’re home with family, bring them along. 4.15 START TO GATHER WOOD: You’ll need it for Valborg—your celebration of Valborgmässoafton on April 30. You’ll likely sing to welcome the month of May over Skype, Zoom, Facetime or a similar service but any reason to sing and be happy with distant friends or family is a good reason. 4.20 DANCE & EAT PEPPERMINT CANDY: “Polkagrisdagen” AKA Amalia’s nameday / Amalia Eriksson started the over 160-year-old peppermint candy industry in Gränna, Sweden, probably naming the candy after a popular dance of the time, the polka.
The Swedish King and Queen have relocated to Stenhammar Castle in Södermanland. /p5
Dashboard, p4-5
Common EU stockpile for medical equipment / Go outside, enjoy the spring weather / New digital Swedish stage / “Where there’s a will ...” / Why we stock up on toilet paper / The royal couple has moved to Stenhammar.
4.30 ATTEND A (SMALL OR VIRTUAL) BONFIRE: VALBORGSMÄSSAFTON / Walpurgis Night: Bonfires are lit and everyone sings songs to mark the beginning of spring—but this year, stay safe at home and keep it small. Dear reader and friend, We picked this issue’s cover image because it says so much about where we’re at now—keeping distance from each other but remembering to stay together. Global issues of this magnitude will take teamwork and persistence. Hang in there, we will. As I write this, much of the world has come to a halt and 90% of Americans are sheltered at home. This is an unprecedented time in our history. The COVID-19 pandemic is having an impact on the health of our loved ones, the businesses we rely on, the health of the global economy, and the way we lead our daily lives. No one knows for how long the present measures will last or how extensively the virus has spread. Our collective courage, generosity and resilience will determine how future generations reflect on our actions. Not knowing leads to feelings of insecurity, a condition we all find difficult to manage. When we lack information, the brain draws us to speculate, create “what ifs.” The greatest evolutionary function of fear and anxiety is to help us survive. When constructive, it can make us empathetic, productive and help us focus on the problem. Let us do that, try to quiet the noise from pundits and act rationally. Advice and guidance from medical officials are abundant. Keep your distance (no contact—no worries), refrain from touching your face, wash your hands often. In recent weeks, news reports of hoarding of certain goods have been common. Logically, we know we do not need three bales of toilet paper, but when we see someone fill their entire cart, we concern ourselves with the “what ifs” and fill our own. In order to plan for the future we must think rationally, consider the whole. The seemingly insignificant actions of the few holds greater influence than one might think. Turn to page 5 for a more thorough discussion on this. You won’t see our usual events listing in this issue but rest assured, any cancelations are caused by the desire to fight the coronavirus. In our almost 150 years, Swedish America has weathered every storm conceivable—and NORDSTJERNAN hasn’t missed a beat. Since our first issue in 1872, it has held our community together through good times and bad, through war and peace, epidemics, political change and the Great Depression. We will continue to serve you with a printed copy in the mail to safeguard this tradition and hopefully hold our community together at a time when physical distance is paramount. Please be safe and stay healthy.
Ulf Barslund Mårtensson Editor & Publisher
P.S. The situation in both the U.S. and in Sweden is changing daily—those of you who are looking for daily summaries from Sweden, please go to our website, www.nordstjernan.com
We don’t always act rationally when fear and anxiety set in. /p5
Cabbage soup, p16
Cabbage soup! Yes, and not just delicious.
Swedish News, p17
Sweden criticized internationally / Working from home / To lock up a population for a long time can be tricky / Löfven: “Lives, health and jobs are threatened” / Most of the deceased over 70 / Half of Sweden infected in April? p8
Not fluent, but not dead, p8
“The first day of school when you’re 65 ...” American born friend, reader and author, Tom Heberlein is learning Swedish. The Exchange Rate:
$1.00 = SEK 10.19 (04.03.2020)
APRIL 15, 2020 3
dashboard | april 15, 2020
German politician, EU President Ursula von der Leyen on a different day in the EU parliament.
Common EU stockpile for medical equipment The EU will create a common stockpile for medical devices as a result of the corona pandemic. EU President Ursula von der Leyen spoke to an empty EU parliament on March 27, as the meeting was held at a distance. According to von der Leyen, European producers can produce enough equipment, the problem has been coordinating among the European countries. Deliveries should start within a few weeks.
The stories, the traditions, the people behind the news. founded in new york city in september 1872 executive editor & publisher:
Ulf Barslund Mårtensson (editor@nordstjernan.com)
In this time of the coronavirus, many may feel anxious about going out, something that’s discouraged by some experts. It won’t work for everyone but if you can, go outside.
Go outside, enjoy the spring weather! Right now, many are at home in self-elected quarantine and not leaving their homes—something that can actually be detrimental to your health, according to Johan Giesecke, infection protection expert and advisor to the World Health Organization. He has more advice: Go outside and enjoy the spring weather. In this time of the coronavirus, many may feel anxious about going out, choosing instead to stay home. This is something that Giesecke strongly discourages. “There are a lot of people sitting at home, and you shouldn’t do that. You should go out and walk in the spring sun. Take in some fresh air. Bring a friend and walk a meter apart. Don’t hug the neighbor. Bring a thermos and sit on a park bench. It is dangerous for your health to sit at home too,” he said on Swedish
TV. “The spread of the virus outdoors is minor, young kids in Swedish kindergartens spend time outdoors so as not to infect each other.” Giesecke is a member of the Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards (STAG-IH) at WHO. He trained as an infectious disease clinician in Stockholm, Sweden during the 1980s, and from his work with AIDS patients he became interested in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. He received an MSc in epidemiology from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in 1992, and worked there as a senior lecturer for a few years. Giesecke became the state epidemiologist for Sweden (1995-2005) and from 2005 to 2014 he was the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
editor:
contributors:
Chipp Reid - Ted Olsson - Leif Rosqvist - Kitty Hughes Ulf Kirchdorfer - Valorie Arrowsmith Bo Zaunders - Göran Rygert - James Kaplan - Gunilla Blixt publications director:
Mette Barslund Mårtensson (mette@nordstjernan.com; 800.827.9333, ext 12)
nordstjernan p.o. box 1710 new canaan ct 06840 contact us at 1.800.827.9333 ext 10 for reader services, email: subs@nordstjernan.com; ext 12 for advertising, email: advertising@nordstjernan.com www.nordstjernan.com Covering three worlds: Sweden, America and Swedish America. Order your own copy, $55.00 for a year (18 issues) Choose ‘subscribe’ at www.nordstjernan.com or call 1.800.827.9333, ext 10 4 NORDSTJERNAN
New Swedish digital stage
All of spring’s theater premieres in Sweden have been postponed, but several opportunities for streaming have been added, benefiting all of us in the diaspora. The Royal Opera launched its site www.operanplay.se well in advance of the corona eruption in Sweden. Dramaten and Unga Klara released their streaming services more recently. The national stage has launched the digital free service Dramaten Play, www.dramaten.se/play, a library of previously recorded performances, concerts and other events. You find everything from Ingmar Bergman’s set of “Markisinnan de Sade” from 1982 to Mats Eks’s dance “Spöksonaten” and “Utvandrarna/The Emigrants” as well as a concert with First Aid Kit. Unga Klara, the national stage for children and young people, has also inaugurated a digital stage, www.ungaklara.se/unga-klara-on-demand showing previously recorded productions that can be viewed free of charge. There, among other things, is the successful show “Girls will make
Photo: Bengt Wanselius
Amanda Olson Robison (editor@nordstjernan.com) managing editor & production: Everett Martin graphic design: Nadia Wojcik (design@nordstjernan.com)
The national stage at Dramaten is closed until summer.
you blush.” Anyone looking for a variety of scenes can search Swedish TV’s new service SVT Scen, www.svtplay.se/genre/scen, which started March 26. The repertoire is continuously updated and you’ll find recently opened plays, reruns and classics, such as “Bortbytingen” from Dramaten, a Händel opera from Confidencen Ulriksdal and the humor group Klungan.
dashboard | april 15, 2020
Ehsan Hadi, Tamara Church and Konstantin Kriechbaum in the lab.
The Swedish health care system is experiencing a shortage of disposable articles as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, so Stockholm University, through Lennart Bergström, professor of Chemistry at the school, along with a multitude of researchers and students, acted early to help. Collecting disposable equipment began immediately and the production of hand sanitizers started in a laboratory at the Department of Chemistry and in a research group at the Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics on March 18. Already by that evening Danderyd Hospital was able to collect, among other things, three large boxes with hand sanitizers in pump bottles, 200 gloves, 200 face masks and 30 liters of hand-made hand sanitizer. The initiative received attention in both traditional media and in social media. Matilda Ernkrans, the Swedish Minister of Higher Education and Research, tweeted about it, describing it as, “an important initiative,” and urging other universities to follow Stockholm University’s example.
The spread of the coronavirus has brought the world economy to a halt. People have stopped traveling, going to restaurants and shopping in stores ... but none of us have stopped consuming. In recent weeks, reports of hoarding of certain goods have been common. Pictures of shelves that gap empty in the grocery stores are published on social media, and toilet paper is auctioned for
Photo: Konstantin Kriechbaum
‘Where there’s a will ...’
Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia are meeting with court officials via video link from Stenhammar Castle. Photo: Kungliga Hovstaterna
The royal couple has moved to Stenhammar T.R.H. King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia have moved to Stenhammar Castle in Södermanland. They do not meet their grandchildren, other than through digital channels and work from home. Everyone is healthy and they are not quarantined, according to the court’s press information. The king, 73, belongs to the risk group and has special protection as the country’s head of state. The queen turned 76 in December, and the couple performs their assignments via telephone or video link. The Royal Family follows the guidelines of the Public Health Authority and no one has been tested for corona.
The king has voiced his concern about people in his own age group (born in the 1940s),who ignore the government’s advice on social distancing. “Take advantage of the days when you are at home,” he said in a recent interview with Dagens Nyheter. “There are so many things you can do, things that you haven’t had the time for earlier.” (Stenhammar Castle in the province of Södermanland is just outside the city Flen about 120 kilometers southwest of Stockholm. Stenhammar, not considered a socalled crown palace, is owned by the State but has been leased to King Carl XVI Gustaf since 1966.)
big money per roll on some websites. Companies and authorities have repeatedly assured us that our country will not run out of food or commodities— they just don’t have stockpiles for the unusually high demand right now. The reason for local shortages is mainly the system of “just-in-time,” where goods are produced and delivered in the amount required at a certain time to avoid tied up capital in store warehouses, save space in individual stores, and avoid goods being thrown away. But that does not mean the supplier is out of these items. However, the fact that shelves of toilet paper are empty is not the result of an occasional large purchase or an increased need to go to the bathroom. Anyone who’s ever been without it knows it’s smart to have an extra stockpile of toilet paper at home. But seeing other people hoard a commodity makes us follow their example and take another package without thinking. It creates a snowball effect caused by psychological phenomena. The crux is that it is not always bad behavior. Above all, it shows the strength of our collective behavior. “We are flock animals, and when we
see in our social feeds that toilet paper is running out in stores, it’s difficult to judge how it will affect us and our situation,” says Erik Angner, professor of practical philosophy at Stockholm University. “You do not take a step back and think about the reality or actual need, instead you react with the flock.” But there are also alarming ingredients in the psychological cocktail behind the behavior of seemingly irrational hoarding. “A certain lack of trust is reflected, the feeling that no one is going to help me, so I have to help myself. The entire market economy is based on trust,” says Angner. He adds, “There is an anti-social element in buying large quantities of goods although you may not need them.” At times like these, the individual has a responsibility, Angner emphasizes. “When you hoard, you can unknowingly inspire others to do the same. How you act sends a signal to others. Don’t brag about how much toilet paper or Lysol you have stored at home. By avoiding this, you avoid scaring people unnecessarily.
APRIL 15, 2020 5
local events
the most popular films and tv shows from sweden
HERITAGE TRADITION FAMILY FOOD FUN
swedish dvd releases Order Swedish language movies on DVD. All videos are in the original language with English subtitles.
Featuring Kardemimmit, magical music from Finland
JUNE 19, 20 & 21, 2020 Clatsop County Fairgrounds, Astoria, OR
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Becoming Astrid: About the life of the creator of Pippi Longstocking, Sweden’s beloved author Astrid Lindgren.
Music • Dancing • Craft Booths Nordic Foods • Imports • Beer Garden Children’s Games • And More!
AstoriaScanFest.org
Immerse yourself and family in swedishness with the latest dvd releases from Sweden. Becoming Astrid $29.95 = _______ A Man Called Ove ($29.95) $19.95 = _______ The Last Sentence ($29.95) $19.95 = _______ The 100 Year Old Man ($29.95) $19.95 = _______ The Dragon Tattoo Trilogy Extended Boxed Set $39.95 = _______ Wallander Series 2 Boxed Set ($74.95) $59.95 = _______ Max Manus: Man of War (in Norwegian) $19.95 = _______
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Augusta’s Daughter Ever wonder what made so many emigrate from Sweden in the nineteenth century? Judit Martin’s novel, “Augusta’s Daughter,” about 19th century Swedish peasant life made such an impression on us, we decided to offer it to the Nordstjernan readership. call 1.800.827.9333 for your own copy ($24.90 incl. S&H to continental U.S.).
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Words and actions Hello to all of you, This Lent did not become what we imagined, and we’ve been confronted with an event never experienced before in our lifetimes. Admittedly, epidemics and illnesses have come and gone, but never has there been such amounts of information available and such a “whipped-up” mood. Everyone has their own opinion and the information is in many cases contradictory. Here in Los Angeles and Southern California there’s a lot of need, and we don’t really know where it’s going to end. Right now at the Swedish Church we have people calling us 24/7, there’s anxiety and worry everywhere. We have helped students who were stranded here and there are a lot of older people who have no one to turn to.
The Swedish churches in Florida, Los Angeles, New York City and San Francisco are closed until further notice. Gudstjänster and other services will be offered online through the curch websites and facebook pages. If you feel anxious or need to talk, don’t hesitate to call or email. www.svenskakyrkan.se/florida 954.604.0605 / florida@svenskakyrkan.se www.svenskakyrkan.se/losangeles Hans Bratt Hernber, 310.292.7080 www.svenskakyrkan.se/newyork Pether Ström Broman, 347.741.9000 www.svenskakyrkan.se/sanfrancisco Kristin Hamren, 925.357.7145
Do not hesitate to call us if you need to talk or have an immediate need. We are available and Viveca is also working with counseling and soul caring every day. Right now I’m speaking to Ulf at Nordstjernan while driving to get help to people that need financial assistance. We are doing everything we can to reach out to people, but we’re also careful to keep our distance. Some people don’t have food or money to buy food and many are without health insurance, savings or unemployment insurance. We get a lot of questions about rules surrounding our present circumstances. Are people allowed to fly to Sweden or allowed to travel at all? A lot of Swedes have already returned to Sweden, but worried parents and relatives in Sweden are inquiring about their loved ones still here. We are constantly in contact with the consulates in San Francisco and San Diego. Many people are here on ESTA, and as we know that’s only for short periods. We are here to help and want to do as much as we can; we also have support from our church board and staff who are all doing what they can to assist. Our communicator is updating through social media and every other channel we have to give information about services we hope to have, prayer and ways you can communicate with us. What’s right or wrong, only history will show. Reflection without action is meaningless and action without reflection is thoughtless. I think it’s important that we dust off “the Golden Rule” in times like these: Matthew 7:12. “Whatever you want men to do for you, you must do for them as well. This is the law and the words of the prophets.” The paradox is that while it is important to make your voice heard, and because if you cannot express your thoughts and feelings, you risk losing your self-worth; and one person’s un-freedom is not what a democracy needs. While keeping distance we also need to stay united. How I want to be treated is always an important matter of consideration. There are many who call out judgments on everything possible, and most of those things are based in fear. Then it is important to remember the words of the evangelist John, “For God did not send his son into the world to judge, but for the world to be saved through him.” Approaching Jesus and the words of the New Testament in these times of worry makes sense if you’re tired of hearing other people’s opinions or even your own beliefs. Even though the corona virus will affect some parts of humanity, our words and actions affect our world and everyone living in it to a much greater extent. And as I wrote in the beginning, we do not yet see the full consequences of this pandemic. I believe that all forms of irresponsible behavior will have serious consequences. Opinions come and opinions go, swinging in every direction. This can clearly be seen in the New Testament. On Palm Sunday, Jesus rides into Jerusalem and everyone first cheers in reverence ... and then a few days later they vote to have him crucified. The key now is to stand firm in faith, hold on to hope, and act in love. In order for these not to become empty words, we can all start practicing it. And remember, the help is through the Holy Spirit, found as our helper all over the earth. We are here for you. Please don’t hesitate to reach out. The Rev. Hans Bratt Hernberg Swedish Church in LA www.svenskakyrkan.se/losangeles
The Swedish Embassy is only offering limited consular services at the moment and will be closed to visitors until at least April 17, 2020. Only extremely urgent passport and visa applications will be considered. Appointments have to be scheduled via e-mail: ambassaden.washington-visum@gov. se. Phone hours are: Monday-Friday 10 am - 2 pm. The embassy has advised it receives many calls during phone hours and you may not be able to get through the first time you try: 202.467.2600
Remember our institutions,
visit them online, find out more about activities and ways to stay in contact in the digital realm. American Swedish Institute, Minneapolis, MN www.asimn.org American Swedish Historical Museum, PA www.americanswedish.org Swedish American Museum, Chicago, IL www. swedishamericanmuseum.org National Nordic Museum, Seattle WA www.nordicmuseum.org Nordic Northwest, Portland OR www.nordicnorthwest.org Scandinavia House, New York NY www.scandinaviahouse.org Scandinavian Cultural Center, West Newton MA www.scandicenter.org
hans.hernberg@svenskakyrkan.se viveca.bratt@svenskakyrkan.se 310.292.7080 Hans Bratt Hernberg 310.292.7079 Viveca Bratt APRIL 15, 2020 7
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. t n e u l f t No . r e h t i e d a e d t o n t Bu
You get pretty intimate with your classmates in a language course when you have to publicly talk about simple things that are important to you. On one first day of what were many “first days” of class during my 25-year quest to learn Swedish, we went around discussing what we wanted to do in 10 years. My classmates talked about getting married, having kids, and starting careers. I said I wanted to be alive. This especially shocked our 24-year-old teacher, who kept insisting I couldn’t possibility be that old. I was 65. It was May in Stockholm and time for another run at learning Swedish. Never mind how many tries at attempted Swedish fluency I already had by this point, a new class was always an exciting time. Who would be my teacher? Who else would be in the class? How much would I improve in a month? The first day of school when you’re 65 means you come out of your apartment wearing your new school clothes feeling as bright and shiny as the Swedish sun. You walk along the Monteliusvägen path with its drop-dead views of Stockholm, cross the bridge over Riddarfjärden, and stroll through the narrow 16th century streets of the old town. 8 NORDSTJERNAN
Being a late-in-life language learner means you arrive at the folkuniversitet 15 minutes early. Despite the energy that radiated off me, during that first class I introduced myself as an “old retiree.” “Tom,” my teacher said, “You should use a more elegant word: Arbetsbefriad.” “Arbetsbefriad,” I said, tasting the word. It tasted nice. Like dessert. Translated, arbetsbefriad means “liberated from work.” The American equivalent might be “independently wealthy,” which I definitely am not, but I am in a situation where I only have to work for sport, big airplane seats, and now an apartment in Stockholm. And best of all, I have the time to take Swedish classes.
One language isn’t enough
It should be easy; it should be wonderful. Instead, it’s full of self-inflicted pressure. That day I shared another goal with the class: “Jag vill inte dö enkelspråkig” (I do not want to die monolingual). Since I didn’t have as much time to reach this goal as the younger folk in my class, I felt stressed, even though I wasn’t sure exactly why I didn’t want to die monolingual. Did I need a good reason? All I knew was that my desire to learn Swedish
began in Gävle, on my very first visit to Sweden in 1988. Gävle is an ordinary mid-sized town in the middle of the long, forested country. There, I found myself at a party in a private home along with 25 people, including doctors, lawyers, real estate agents, and my friend, an engineer and scientist who had invited Betty and me. In this seemingly ordinary midsized town, which could have been located in Wisconsin, the dinner took place in four languages. Everyone spoke to us in English. Then, during the dinner, someone got up and gave a toast in German, and everyone seemed to understand. At my table someone told a joke in French. This was still at the time when I had enough of my now longgone college French to realize that everyone laughed at the right time. Betty and I were PhDs on the fast track at one of the world’s great research universities, but compared to these people, we were pretty much illiterate—one language. Of course we rationalized that if we had to know French to visit or study in a foreign country we would. But we didn’t have to and therefore we didn’t.
Rooftops along Monteliusvägen on Söder, Stockholm South, spire of Riddarholmen Church in Gamla Stan in the background.
When we were getting our doctoral degrees, the academy was in the process of throwing out the language requirement even for PhDs—and we both slipped by. But what came out of that evening was the desire to learn and be fluent in at least one language other than English, to not be thought of in the world community as illiterate.
Pushing through the pain
The Swedish class that first day was tough. It was all in Swedish. I don’t know what I expected, but maybe it was to feel more like a PhD and less like an idiot. My teacher didn’t talk slowly or use simple words. She didn’t use the board to write down new words either. When we got a group assignment, another student had to explain to me in simple Swedish what we were supposed to do. By the end of three hours I was exhausted. I grabbed an International Herald Tribune and had a comfort lunch. Back at our apartment I had to take a nap. My sinus infection didn’t help. When the infection would morph into my ears and both were completely filled it was like when you go swimming. The only time I could hear normally was when I APRIL 15, 2020 9
feature
I was hen I told him been right w d you are not learning a ve ha ay m -Madison seriousness: “Too ba ue from UW l … my colleag ish and he replied in al learning Swedge.” useful langua
was lying in bed in the early morning. By the time I finished shaving, the eustachian tubes would fill and I would be both hearing impaired and off to language class. Hearing wasn’t exactly optional for language learners. This was not a very good way to go through life with the desire to be bilingual. I realized at the end of the course that my teacher had looked at all my errors and decided I was a dilettante, just taking the course for entertainment. “Other students, you know, they have real motivation because they have careers and spouses. You will have to decide how motivated you really are,” my teacher said. “Your score is so low. Do you even want to bother discussing your exam?” she continued. I shifted from one foot to the next. She clearly didn’t understand that I was highly motivated— and had given up a month that would have been much more productively used writing in English— but not very competent, and too incompetent to come up with a comeback. I wanted to remind her I didn’t want to die monolingual. I wanted to tell her I was a professor. I had written a book. Where I came from I was smart. And I had worked hard! Instead I just shook my head and walked out like the illiterate and dead-to-her person I had become. 10 NORDSTJERNAN
Is Swedish so hard to learn?
My Swedish incompetence seared my soul. I wanted the kind of fluency I could flaunt, but I just wasn’t good at languages. I couldn’t hear that well even without the sinus infection, my short-term memory had gone south, and I had never paid attention to or been good at detail. Even my English spelling was atrocious. I was a mess. How could I want to be bilingual but not be interested in the appropriate ending of an adjective modifying noun? Despite repeated failures, I worked. Day after day, year after year. Sometimes I got up at 4:30 in the morning when I was rested and brighter to finish my lessons. Even though I am arbetsbefriad, I at least wanted my Swedish to reflect some of the amount of effort I was putting into it. My workbook came with a correction book, and it was particularly frustrating to struggle with an assignment for an hour and be absolutely sure I had everything right, then to find I had half wrong—and not even know why. My essays came back full of red ink. In one 139-word essay I made 31 mistakes. Each day I felt worse about my ability. On the positive side, I got lots of strokes from Betty, who had never seen me
work so hard or so persistently. Sometimes it even struck me that my colleague from UW-Madison was right when I told him I was learning Swedish and he replied in all seriousness: “Too bad you are not learning a useful language.” Swedes tell me Swedish is such a hard language but I tell them it isn’t. Finnish is hard, Chinese is hard, Thai is hard, but not Swedish. Swedish, like English, is a Germanic language, so it has much the same structure as English. Something like 40 percent of the words are cognates or close cognates to English. While they may not sound like English when pronounced, the following words look a lot like English, attityd, telefon, nummer. For Germans it is a small step to learning Swedish (with of course an accent that is so broad even I can tell that it is a German speaking Swedish).
But others speak English so well
The biggest problem with learning Swedish is that Swedes speak such excellent English. My colleagues write and often even teach in English. Store clerks, bus drivers, waiters, taxi drivers all speak English. So when you speak bad Swedish (the only kind I know) they all go immediately to English. They like speaking English and show-
The real key to is that Americ Swedes’ mastery of Englis h an movies an d te programs are not dubbed. E levision ve listen to a lot of English wit ry day Swedes h Swedish su btitles.
ing off their prowess. This isn’t true only in Stockholm. Even in small towns and rural areas most people speak English. Swedes begin learning English when they are about 8 years old and continue for the next 10 years. But the real key to their mastery is that the American movies and television programs are not dubbed. Swedes see a lot of films in English with Swedish subtitles. In Germany and Spain, on the contrary, the movies and most TV shows are dubbed into the native language. A Wisconsin friend who came back from Germany years ago couldn’t believe he had watched Hogan’s Heroes (a comedy about a German POW camp—from a distinct American point of view) where the American prisoners and German guards all spoke in dubbed German. Our waitress at a small resort in northern Greece spoke excellent English but had never been out of the country. I asked how she had gotten so good, and she answered, “Watching American movies.” Of course this sometimes backfires. She told of going to her English teacher and asking about the principle parts of “gonna.” Her teacher claimed that “gonna” was not a word. The teacher must have been trained in British English and was not familiar with the Midwestern pronunciation of “going to.” The Swedes miss a lot of tourism opportu-
nities by not really advertising this language competency. If you want to go to Europe and not get put down by snooty French waiters, or get flummoxed by the German train conductor who couldn’t understand being asked if there is a dining car on the train to Berlin—come to Sweden. You can get around, talk to the locals, and not be patronized for being monolingual.
Dialects and diacritics
The real barrier to learning Swedish is that Swedes don’t understand bad Swedish. Most Swedes hear only perfect Swedish. Since so many non-native Americans speak English, even in the Midwest we get quite used to hearing English with foreign accents. Chinese English doesn’t sound much like Italian English but there is enough commonality that we can still work it out. Swedes don’t hear much strongly accented Swedish since the country is so homogeneous, at least it has been. So when I say words I am sure are pronounced correctly, I get blank looks. The cab driver asks where I live—I say Södermalm. He asks, “where”? (Telling a cabbie you live in Södermalm is like telling a NY cabbie you live in Brooklyn). I say Södermalm again and again draw a blank. Finally I “sing” the word actually moving my head “Södder-MALM.” Oh, he says
I just can’t pronounce “ö”—no matter how hard I try … a big problem because the first letter in beer (öl) is “ö.” Then again, Swedes have as hard a time pronouncing “beer” properly in English as Americans have with the Swedish word “öl.” APRIL 15, 2020 11
Photo: Stockholm Visi
röm tors Board/Jeppe-Wikst
feature
Stockholm’s south - “S
ckholm, is considere öder” in the south of Sto
“Södermalm.” I agree and we are off. The problem with Swedish letters is that it has three extra vowels, å, ä, and ö (like in Södermalm). Or, I suppose from a Swedish point of view one could complain that English is three vowels short. If you are going to learn Swedish you have to learn these vowels. I don’t have much problem with å, which is pronounced “oh,” just like the little “o” sitting on top of the letter, or ä, which is pronounced “eh,” but I do have a problem with the ö. The ö has issues even for Swedes. When describing the letter itself they don’t call it an o-umlaut as a German or an American might, but describe it as an o with two dots or more commonly an o with “two pricks.” You can see the trouble this could get one into. And it does. The first month we were in Sweden we saw a full-page ad for language classes. All in English it told the story of a Swedish business man who was giving a lecture to 2,000 people in Paris. He is reported to have said, “My name is Jönsson. That is just like Johnson, except that I have two pricks.” The mere thought of such a faux pas would be enough to scare any businessman insecure about his English, to sign up tomorrow—no matter the cost. Betty and I were tickled by the ad, first because 12 NORDSTJERNAN
d one of the world’s hip
pest neighborhoods.
we could read it. Second, because it showed just how many Swedes could read English well enough to catch an off-color slang joke. We couldn’t imagine the morning paper in Madison publishing such a double entendre in any language. Things are different here when it comes to sex. I am not so strangely endowed as the aforementioned Mr. Jönsson but my problem with the “two pricks” is that I just can’t pronounce “ö”—no matter how hard I try. And that is a big problem because it’s the first letter in beer (öl). When I go into a bar and ask for an “öl” the bartender is struck as dumb as the taxi driver who couldn’t take me to Södermalm. I say it again louder with no result. In my very first Swedish class I once invited all my classmates for a beer on a beautiful summer day. My Swedish teacher, trying to keep a straight face, cautioned, “Tom, that is very kind, but you just invited everyone to go out for a glass of wool.” Ull (wool) is how I usually pronounced “öl.” I stewed about this for years, grumpy that the Swedes could not hear just a slight mispronunciation. Then I began to pay attention to how Swedes pronounce beer in English and realized they have a hard time getting it right themselves. When they say beer it sounds like “bear,” which
I think is cute. I wondered what a Swede would get if he wandered into a Wisconsin north woods bar and ordered a bear? It turns out I didn’t have to fly a Swede over to Wisconsin to get my answer. I was telling this story to one of Betty’s Swedish colleagues at a party. He told me of a recent visit to London. He was tired and not attending to his language when he went to the bar in a London pub to order a couple of dark beers and in his best Swedish-English said, “Can I have two big black bears.” He didn’t even get a glass of wool. The Swedes are good at English, but these beer drinking vowels are a special challenge for us all.
Kind of literate
Now, back to my struggle. I worked language exercises into my everyday life. On one trip to Stockholm I practiced my Swedish by going to three hotels and asking for a room with a view until I found the right one and negotiated the price in Swedish. Another time I tried and failed to get ice for my whiskey at a hotel reception desk. Then there was the time when Betty called from the grocery store with the order to have the rice ready when she walked in the door. Rice? I should know how to cook rice but I
didn’t. So I picked up the rice package, expecting the worst—directions in Swedish that I couldn’t read. But then something crazy happened—I read the directions in Swedish. I made the rice! Slowly, other victories came. I could read more and more of the front page of the Swedish newspaper. I could spend an evening speaking only Swedish with friends and not feel like I needed a nap afterward. I could negotiate in stores and hotels. I could read maps, timetables, street signs, emails, and yes, recipes. I started learning Swedish 25 years ago and I still feel like I’ll never be finished. I can’t write in Swedish. I can’t handle complex political discussions. I can’t understand TV news—unless there are Swedish subtitles. I have a kind of literacy with Swedish. Does “kind of” count?
Learning is life
Just when I was feeling like a language failure again, I discovered William Alexander, the author of Flirting with French: How Language Charmed Me, Seduced Me and Nearly Broke My Heart. After trying to learn French at the age of 59, he concludes, “The truth is, not only have I failed to
become fluent, or even conversant, in French, but I have failed spectacularly—more so than I ever imagined possible.” This made me feel wonderful—and not only from the fellow feeling. Before and after Alexander’s year of French study he had brain scans. His brain showed more activity when listening to French (compared to Japanese) than it did the year before. The brain scans showed that “clearly something positive happened.” He also did a college placement exam in French before and after. His score before was 310—not quite qualifying him for first year college French and 418 after—just two points shy of admitting him to third year French. More impressive than his French comprehension were the improvements in Alexander’s cognitive function. He had been very low on many dimensions before studying French. So much that he was genuinely worried about his long-term health. Before the year of study, his word recall was at the 40th percentile, but after it more than doubled to the 88th percentile. His visual memory was at the 5th percentile before and 50th after. The total score had gone from the 55th percentile to the 84th percentile. He concluded, “I revital-
ized my brain merely by studying French. And as a bonus, I can order dinner in Paris.” I am writing this book in the middle of my seventh decade—and I have Swedish to thank for it. Because without my Swedish studies (and struggle), not only would I be lacking the stories but perhaps also the brainpower to make it happen. For that reason, I realize I have succeeded with my Swedish language goals: I am very much alive.
Tom Heberlein Not Fluent. But Not Dead Either is a chapter and excerpt from Thomas Heberlein’s upcoming book, once planned to be titled Falling in Love with Sweden one Mistake at a Time, with a present working title of Smörgåsbook—What an American can Learn by Living in Sweden. Tom Heberlein divides his time between Wisconsin and Sweden. He is a professor emeritus at the University of Wisconsin Madison.
Our Language Class will be back with Lesson 9 on more common Swedish verbs in our next issue, #7, 2020
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lifestyle Safety first. Over the years Volvo has arguably led the auto industry in safety innovations. As early as 1944, Volvo had laminated windshields which prevent flying shards of glass in an accident. The U.S. government made it a legal requirement 25 years later. There were several other innovative ideas in the 1940s: safety cage body design, padded dashboards and padded sun visors. Volvo standards, which were largely ignored everywhere else. Volvo’s biggest safety breakthrough came in 1959 with its innovation of the three-point seat belt. The patent for the invention by Volvo engineer Nils Bohlin was opened up so that any car manufacturer could use it in their design. It was decided that the invention was so significant, it had more value as a free life saving tool than something to profit from. It took another 10 years before the Swedish and U.S. governments would require them on all cars.
DID YOU KNOW?
Unselfish people earn more. American and European data clearly show this result. “The most unselfish people have the most children and the moderately unselfish receive the highest salaries. And we also find this result over time: The people who are most generous at one point in time have the largest salary increases when researchers revisit them later in time,” according to Kimmo Eriksson, researcher at the Centre for Cultural Evolution at Stockholm University and one of the authors of the 2018 study “Generosity pays: Selfish people have fewer children and earn less money.” www.su.se
Initial steps to sanitation, disinfection. The Swedish scientific “revolution” occurred in the 18th century. Carl Wilhelm Scheele (1742-86) began as an apprentice to an apothecary. Working on his own, he gained a broad knowledge of chemistry surpassing that of most internationally famous chemists of his era. Scheele devised many outstanding analytic techniques and was the first to verify that the same metal may go through different stages of oxidation. He discovered several chemical elements, among them chlorine and molybdenum, and isolated many other substances.
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art and culture
Cabbage soup with ground beef quenelles Vitkålssoppa med frikadeller Cabbage soup was very common once upon a time when everyone grew their own cabbage and kept it in a root cellar so it could be eaten year-round. Cabbage soup made a solid, low-cost meal. Quenelles added a little extra to the soup, and a slice of bread on the side has always made for an addition of needed carbohydrates this time of the year. Cabbage is packed with vitamin C and other vitamins, it’s high in fiber and contains powerful antioxidants. A head of cabbage should feel very heavy for its size with leaves that are tightly packed together. When you are looking for the best cabbage, stay away from heads with loose or limp leaves, though a few wilted outer leaves isn’t a big deal. Simply peel them away to reveal a healthy, firm cabbage. Cabbage can practically last forever. Store it loose in the refrigerator. Once you’ve cut it, tightly wrap the remaining portion in plastic and store in the fridge.
Cabbage Soup
1/2 medium head of white cabbage (summer or winter cabbage work equally well) 4 cups beef bouillon 4 allspice corns a pinch of white pepper 1 bay leaf salt Rinse the cabbage and shred it. Bring the bouillon and spices to a boil. Add the cabbage and boil until the cabbage is soft—for winter cabbage 60-90 minutes, for summer cabbage around 30 minutes. Add salt to taste.
Quenelles
1/2 pound ground veal or ground beef 1 tablespoon dried breadcrumbs 1/3 cup whole milk 1/2 teaspoon salt 1/8 teaspoon white pepper 1 egg
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Vitkål - Cabbage A highly undervalued vegetable these succulent spheres are really best from late fall to early spring and make the perfect addition to any winter meal. Cabbage can grow in all 50 states, but it flourishes in New York, California, Texas and Wisconsin. You can start cabbage from seed indoors and transplant it in early spring. Alternatively, you can plant it from seed for fall: Seeds should be placed 15-18 inches apart in moist (but not soggy) and fertilized conditions. It takes 70-100 days for a full head of cabbage to develop. Harvest when the head is completely firm by cutting the stalk at the lowest point possible, leaving the outer leaves intact. Raw cabbage can be refrigerated in plastic wrap or plastic container for weeks. To store for months, blanch cabbage in boiling water and place in an airtight plastic bag in the freezer. • As a cold-weather crop, this vegetable is ideal for giving you the vitamin C your body needs to boost the immune system in winter. Fermented cabbage, or sauerkraut, was eaten by sailors in the 17th and 18th centuries to prevent scurvy on long voyages. • Digestive fiber helps keep you running efficiently while detoxifying your system.
- Mix the dried breadcrumbs with the milk and let them expand. Combine the ground meat, spices and egg. Work the mixture until it is smooth, with a slightly mushy consistency. Form small balls. Tip: Keep a bowl of water close by to dip your hands into because the consistency is mushy. - Boil quenelles in the soup for 10 minutes with the lid on. - Enjoy the soup right away or serve it the next day; it will taste even better after a day or two.
• Sulforaphane, a chemical found in cabbage, broccoli and other related vegetables, reduces the risk of rectal, prostate, breast, lung, stomach and colon cancer.
The recipe is from Swedish Homecooking in America, ISBN 978-9178431984, by Catarina Lundgren Åström and Peter Åström. Available at Amazon and several Scandinavian specialty stores and institutions around the U.S.
(Mostly gleaned from Farm Flavor)
• Cabbage, as the Romans suspected, is antiinflammatory. You can apply it to scrapes, cuts or scars to alleviate pain and infection. Romans and Egyptians used it to dress battle wounds.
news in brief
Swedish News Sweden criticized internationally
Sweden’s tactics to fight the corona virus have astonished many in the world. Danish media feels Sweden is lagging behind. German media calls the Swedish strategy “relaxed” and Norwegian infection doctors are critical. French Le Monde writes that the Swedish measures are paltry, and its strategy is similar to Russian roulette, according to The Guardian. The New York Times published a long article on March 29, and the WSJ on March 30, both speculating how and why Sweden chooses to deal with the COVID-19 crisis differently than other European countries.
“To lock up a population for a long time can be tricky”
Sweden’s Director General of Public Health Johan Carlson turned the criticism around in the Swedish television show, Agenda: “It is a tricky experiment to lock up a population for four, five months,” he said in the program. “In addition to having a lot of negative consequences, that type of rule is rarely followed,” he said. “If you want to succeed with measures that need to be kept for months, you have to have acceptance and understanding,” he added. Sweden’s way of dealing with the pandemic, which in some countries is called “the Swedish experiment,” is to offer strong recommendations, facts of the disease and the reasoning behind imposed measures.
Löfven: “Lives, health and jobs are threatened”
“We have a general spread of the infection in Sweden. Lives, health and jobs are threatened. More will be sick, more will be forced to say a final farewell to a loved one,” said Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in his speech to the nation on Swedish TV on Sunday, March 22. Löfven was clear that Sweden’s population should be prepared for more intervention decisions to come, decisions that may disrupt citizens’ everyday lives and which may come at short notice. “There are few moments in life when you have to make sacrifices, not just for your own sake, but for your surroundings, your fellow human beings and for our country. That moment is now. That day is here. This task applies to everyone. No one should risk anything in this situation. Every person in Sweden must do their part to limit the spread of infection as much as possible.” (Watch the speech on www.svtplay.se)
Most of the deceased over 70
Of the 239 people who died of COVID-19 through March 31 in Sweden, 75 were women and 105 men. Most of them—75—are in the age group 80-90 years, while 42 were 70-79 years old. The third largest group with 41 people, was age 90 or older when they died as a result of COVID-19. Among the deceased prior to April 1, 88 percent were 70 or older.
With children at home, finding the physical space, time and mental space for work can be difficult.
Working from home working alone at home instead of going to work as
As of March 31, at least 265 million Americans were being urged to stay home, and subsequently a lot of office work is now being done remotely. That means there are many adjustments for those of us who are used to a more typical office environment. The most important aspect to address is the boundary between work life and private life, according to most researchers. It is necessary to set aside physical space, time and mental space for work. In the meantime you need to filter out everything else—which is far from easy in a family with adults and children all at home for long periods of time. We reached out to Petra Lindfors, professor at the Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, to find out more. Lindfors’ research on distance versus work from home started in 2002 as modern working life had become more flexible for many types of professionals. New and more widespread technology meant more people had cell phone and internet access both at work and at home. Lindfors says, “For professionals who suddenly need to switch to
usual, it can be a bit tricky in the beginning before routines set in. In addition to identifying a good workplace in the home (with a good chair and stable table), it is also important to keep up routines and do the work that corresponds to a normal working day. Obviously, it becomes even more difficult for those who also have children at home and have to be responsible for the children’s schooling in cases where schools are closed. If that’s the case, you need to consider how to organize professional work and children’s school work so everyone can focus.” Lindfors’ early research focused particularly on comparing physiological stress mechanisms and activity while working outside the home, working at home and during days off from work. Her research consistently showed we move less when we work at home instead of at the office. When working at work, we may need to walk the stairs for a meeting or between different parts of a larger office. So, follow Johan Giesecke’s advice: Move around every so often, go outside if you can, breath fresh air.
In our next issue: How the pandemic may change the way we care within families.
Half of Sweden infected in April? By the end of the month, around half the population will be infected, according to Professor Tom Britton. “If there is a month to do yourself and others a favor by staying at home, it is now in April,” he says. April is the month when the spread of the corona virus will be most intense, according to Britton. “This is such an infectious disease that over half of Sweden’s population will be infected before the end of April. After that, the spread of infection will not stop, but it will go slightly slower so that about twothirds will be infected by the end of May,” he says. The calculations are based on the fact that be-
tween half a million and one million Swedes are currently infected. “It is a fair assessment that I would not bet my house on. But if I could say between 250,000 and a million and a half, instead, I would probably dare to put the house on it,” he says. This means, he says, that if the elderly and atrisk groups want to stay home and avoid social contacts for only a limited time, then April is the time to do it. “If we had taken tougher measures, we might have been able to level the curve even more, but this would have also affected society more drastically. I think the Swedish authorities have found a reasonable level.” APRIL 15, 2020 17
news in brief news in brief
Coronavirus update How many will be infected? When will it peak? What can we do to prevent getting sick and reducing the spread of the virus?
Why societies shut down Step by step, the novel coronavirus has upended the world’s social and economic fabric since it was first identified in China last year. Nearly every country in the world has by now shuttered schools and businesses, restricted travel, closed borders, canceled entertainment and sports, and encouraged people to stay away from each other. The pandemic is global and no one is spared. Leading politicians, sports stars, celebrities and your next-door neighbor are all among those testing positive for the virus. The situation in Sweden is calmer than in many places. Yes, the country has over 6,000 cases of COVID-19 as we write this (April 3) and 333people have died, most of them elderly or immunocompromised, but the borders were not closed until all of Europe’s borders closed on March 19 and restrictions on people and businesses are less strict than elsewhere. Sweden has been criticized for its apparent more “lagom” actions to stem the spread of the virus (see p18) but so far, allowing the constituents some leeway and trusting people’s common sense seems to have worked just as well as the more strict regulations imposed elsewhere. The decisive factor for the spread of any virus is what scientists call the basic reproduction number, or R: how many more will be infected by one infected person. For the coronavirus scientists now waver between two and 2.5, although we’ve also seen numbers as high as five in early news reports. Professor Tom Britton at Stockholm University uses a mathematical model to explain how fast the coronavirus is likely to spread. Listening to him is enlightening—and makes me wash my hands even more often, disinfect surfaces on a regular basis and stay away from groups and meetings. Let’s take a look at a highly hypothetical case, not specifically based on the coronavirus. If everyone in a fairly homogenous society is susceptible, that is, no one is immune, no one has been vaccinated (which is the case with COVID-19) and there’s been no change in behavior, and let’s for the sake of simplicity assume the number of people 18 NORDSTJERNAN
one infectious person infects is three. (The basic reproduction number is 3)
If your neighbor starts his day being infected, he will infect three people on the train or subway on his way to work, then each of them could infect three people, and so on—so by the end of an average work day, 9,840 additional people could be infected. Let’s face it, this is not how the virus generation works. The example is only theory; you’re not infectious from the moment you yourself are infected, not everyone will interact in ways that infect other people, and some will already have been infected, but it’s a simple way of seeing that your neighbor should stay home. This is why schools, businesses and nations are closing. Reducing the reproduction number will flatten the curve of infected people and delay and decrease the peak of infection—thereby reducing stress on the health care system. In recent weeks, after 20 years as a mathematician, Tom Britton has become extremely popular. What everyone wants to know is: How serious will it be? We reached out to Britton to get a better grasp of what his models mean for us in the long run.
Prof. Tom Britton
What is your research area? “My main area is mathematical models for the spreading of infections, and also statistical methodology for how to determine a model’s parameter values, such as R, from outbreak data. It is called “taxes” in statistical language.” How large will the spread of Corona be in any given country? “The answer depends very much on what preventive measures are being taken, by ourselves and by the authorities. It is estimated that the reproduction number R, the number infected by a
person, is 2.5 before any restrictions or measures have been implemented in a society. Then 60-70 percent will be infected. If nothing is done, this is how many people will become infected in Sweden. But if we manage to reduce the number of reproductions with different measures, of course fewer will be infected. The magic value is R = 1. As soon as we get the reproduction number below 1 with different measures, it will quickly disappear. China succeeded in this by means of very comprehensive measures, and very quickly, so that less than 1 percent will be infected in Wuhan. I am not convinced that we will be as effective in for instance Sweden.” Using Britton’s model and our example of a reproduction number of 3, putting societal restrictions in place and thereby reducing this to 2 instead, the peak will go down by 50% - that is, 50% less people will be affected - and delay the peak with 70% - in other words, allowing the health care system to catch up. Britton’s most recent projections for Sweden can be seen on page 18.
Does it work?
Well, China closed down its last coronavirus hospital in March. For lack of patients! So, help each other to the extent possible in the community while still avoiding direct contact. Wash your hands often, stay inside to the extent possible, listen to the scientists and recommendations by health care professionals (forget the fake pundits wherever they are)! As for other good news, • Apple stores in China have reopened and factories started producing again. • The number of new cases in South Korea has gone down drastically after implementing much stricter rules. • A new U.S. developed coronavirus test gives results in minutes, not days • While Britton’s latest projections may look grim (p18) Yes, it may take the overwhelming majority time, but things of patients recover and can will get better. return to everyday life. UBM If you are interested in Britton’s model for the spread of a virus, check his 30-minute lecture in English on youtube: Math of the Corona outbreak
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