Spring 2025
A RETURN TO BALANCE
January and February 2026 marked a quieter start to the year in Victoria real estate, with the market feeling calmer and more deliberate than it has in recent years. January recorded 339 property sales, about 20% fewer than January 2025, and February sales came in roughly 22% below the five-year average. That slower pace doesn’t suggest something is “wrong” with the market as much as it shows buyers are taking their time. People are still active, but they’re less reactive. They’re comparing options, watching pricing closely, and waiting for the right fit.
Inventory has continued to build, and that’s the single biggest reason the market feels more favourable to buyers
Stockus
day-to-day. Active listings ended January at 2,624, up about 10% from the year prior. By February, inventory had climbed to over 2,600, representing a significant jump and pushing the market to over seven months of supply. Even though the market is technically sitting in “balanced” territory by the sales-to-active-listings ratio, which is hovering around 16%, the sheer amount of choice available makes conditions feel more buyer-friendly in practice. Buyers have time to think, negotiate, and include conditions that protect them. Sellers need to be realistic and strategic rather than relying on urgency to do the heavy lifting.
Pricing has softened modestly, with differences depending on property type and location. In Victoria Core, single-family home benchmark pricing sat around $1,265,500 in January 2026, about 2.5% lower than in January 2025. Another benchmark measure shows Victoria Core single-family homes down 4.7% year-over-year, easing from $1,316,700 to $1,255,000, with a slight month-over-month dip as well. Condo benchmark pricing was approximately $537,800 in January, about 1.5% lower than the year before. Overall, this is a market where prices are adjusting rather than collapsing, and where outcomes depend heavily on how a home is priced and presented relative to competing listings.
The clearest shift right now is in where the market is rewarding sellers and where it is pushing back. Wellpriced townhomes and entry-level condos are still moving, especially when they show well and feel like clear value compared to alternatives. Detached homes are facing more resistance, and sellers in that segment see that sharp pricing and a strong strategy matter more than ever. Micro-markets are doing a lot of the storytelling now. Some segments are close to balanced, while others are clearly leaning toward buyers. This is not a weak market. It is a selective market, and the homes that feel “obviously right”
to buyers are the ones that earn action.
There are also a few broader influences worth monitoring as we move through 2026. The BC provincial government increased speculation and vacancy tax rates effective this year, which may continue to shape investor decisions and listing activity in certain pockets. As of January 1, 2026, the rate for Canadian citizens/permanent residents increased from 0.5% to 1%. The rate for foreign owners/untaxed earners increased from 2% to 3%. While the first quarter has been quiet so far, expectations remain that spring will bring a more normal rhythm back to the market as buyers return with stabilized interest rates and a clearer sense of direction. Activity may pick up, but it’s likely to remain measured and value-driven rather than frantic.
The Province has announced changes to the Property Tax Deferment (PTD) Program starting in 2026. The new rules apply only if a homeowner defers their property taxes in 2026 or later years. Deferred taxes from 2026 onward will charge compound interest at Prime + 2%. Property tax balances from 2025 or earlier are not affected and will continue under the previous interest rules. Homeowners do not need to repay their full balance to decide whether to defer future taxes.
Across British Columbia more broadly, the market continues a necessary reset that began in 2022 and has been influenced by major shifts in demand and supply dynamics. The overall pattern has been falling sales, rising inventory, and price declines in certain key segments, with condos facing particular pressure in some areas. The immediate challenge for 2026 is absorbing current supply, and in some segments that may require further price adjustment to restore affordability and bring the market back to a more natural equilibrium.
One encouraging note we are seeing locally is early momentum returning at the top end. The luxury market is showing signs of renewed life, with more buyers re-entering the $3 million-plus range and activity beginning to rebound.
As a team, we’re grateful to have recently received The Agency Chairman’s Award, recognizing top 5% performance globally, along with MLS Gold recognition through VREB. We’re genuinely grateful for the trust you’ve placed in us. Your continued support means a lot, and it’s what allows us to keep improving and delivering work we’re proud of. Thank you for choosing us.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in 2026, this is a year where the right plan matters more than ever. Buyers have more choice and more leverage than they’ve had in some time, and sellers who price realistically and position their homes well can still achieve excellent results. The best next step is a conversation that connects today’s market data to your specific neighbourhood, property type, and timing, so you can move forward with confidence.
