THE SLATER TEAM
WINTER/SPRING 2022
NEW YORK MARKET PREDICTIONS WINTER/SPRING 2022
IN QUESTION: Where are we now, and what is coming?
SUPPLY: We are functioning at 70% of the listing supply now versus one year ago. Total supply of Manhattan apartments per week is shown below. 400
300
200
100
0 1 7 5 3 4 17 31 15 14 10 01 05 9/12 9/19 26 29 22 08 /2 11/28 2/05 12/12 2/19 2/26 1/02 /0 /2 1/0 0/ 8/ 0/ - 10/ 7/2 9/ 9/ 11/ 8/ 8/ 8/ - 08/ 1 - 11 -1 - 10 4 - 1 -0 3-0 0-0 - 10 5 - 1 01 - 1 08 -0 6-0 2-0 -1 -0 -0 3-0 0-0 1 5 2 - 29 1 7 1 9 6 8 9 6 2 1 1 / 2 06 2/13 / 1 0 20 2/27 / /2 /0 09/ 11 /3 /2 /2 09/2 10/ /0 08/0 08/1 10 11/ 11/ 11/ 1 10/ 11/ 10/ 12/ 07 1 12/ 07 09 08 08 09 08
DEMAND: Demand has zoomed heavily since the pandemic, and is now consistently high. Inventory is becoming the larger problem. Total number of Manhattan contracts signed per month in 2021 vs. 2020 is shown below. 400
300
200
100
0 y Jul
0 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 02 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 y2 er er er er er er er er ust gust b b b b b b b b g Jul o m m m t m m m to Au Au ce ve ce ve Oc pte epte Oc No De No Se De S
THE SLATER TEAM
WINTER/SPRING 2022
THE BEGINNING OF PRICE INCREASES: We saw the average price climb 4.3% in the fourth quarter, what we view as the beginning of price increases that will continue into the first and second quarters of 2022.
↑ 4.3%
“Manhattan Housing Closes out a Banner Year With Strongest Fourth Quarter in Decades.” - MANSION GLOBAL
THE CASH-RICH BUYER POOL: “Wall Street Bankers Are Poised to Pocket Their Biggest Bonuses Since the Financial Crisis.” - FAST COMPANY
“Wall Street delivered another strong year, as the spike in consumer demand fueled by the reopening of the global economy pumped up corporate profits.” - ABC NEWS
“Tech Roles Saw Most Significant Salary Increases in 2021, Accounting for 10 of the Top 20 Salary Increases in the Last 12 Months, Says Hays Ireland.” - SILICONREPUBLIC
CLIMBING INTEREST RATES // A POTENTIAL HEADWIND? Although interest rates are still at historic lows, the Fed has signaled multiple interest rate hikes to occur in 2022, which could put downward pressure on the stock market and real estate prices.