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SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT
FEBRUARY 2021 RECIPIENT OF ROYAL LEPAGE’S BROKERAGE OF THE YEAR AWARD FOR ONTARIO
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OVERVIEW A MOMENTOUS START TO THE 2021 SALES YEAR
RECORD YEAR-TO-DATE SALES VOLUME OF $259,938,892 Up 64% from 2020’s $158,098,505, with units of 321 up 23% from 2020’s 260. New listings of 397 down 16% from one year ago, with the sales/listings ratio of 81% up 26%.
RECORD FEBRUARY SALES VOLUME OF $152,315,231 Up 62% from last February’s $93,984,939. Record February units of 192 up 22% from last year’s 157. New listings of 255 up 1 listing from a year ago, with the sales/listing ratio of 75% up 13%.
RECORD YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGE SALE PRICE OF $809,778 Up 33% from the $608.071 of one year ago. Average days-on-market of 25 down 32 days.
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OVERVIEW (cont’d) THE DEMAND FOR LISTINGS IS GREATER THAN THE SUPPLY The Southern Georgian Bay market had a high 102.3% sale/list price ratio in February. Homes sold in just 22 days on average, down 26 days from a year ago. And there is now just one month of inventory. All that, and February’s 75% sales/listings ratio – which is relatively high for the month – add up to a strong sellers’ market. Graph 1: Southern Georgian Bay MLS® Sales 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021 (Volume) $300,000,000
$259,938,092 $250,000,000
$200,000,000
$158,098,505 $150,000,000
$118,969,536 $100,000,000
$50,000,000
$0
2019
2020
2021
Graph 2: Southern Georgian Bay MLS® Sales 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021 (Units) 350
321
300
260
250
217 200
150
100
50
0
2019
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2020
2021
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THE MARKET IN DETAIL Table 1: Southern Georgian Bay MLS® Sales And Listing Summary 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021
2019
2020
2021
2020-2021
$118,969,536
$158,098,505
$259,938,892
+64%
YTD Unit Sales
217
260
321
+23%
YTD New Listings
425
474
397
-16%
YTD Sales/Listings Ratio
51%
55%
81%
+26%
62
77
21
-73%
$67,276,336
$93,984,939
$152,315,231
+62%
February U nit Sales
129
157
192
+22%
February New Listings
213
254
255
+.04%
February Sales/Listings Ratio
61%
62%
75%
+13%
26
30
7
-77%
$521,522
$598,630
$793,308
+33%
YTD Sales : Under $300K
27
22
6
-73%
YTD Sales: $300K - $499K
91
108
67
-38%
YTD Sales: $500K - $799K
74
77
133
+73%
YTD Sales: $800K - $999K
12
28
50
+79%
YTD Sales: $1M - $1.499M
6
13
41
+215%
YTD Sales: $1.5M - $1.999M
4
10
15
+50%
YTD Sales: $2M+
3
2
9
+350%
67
57
25
-56%
$548,247
$608,071
$809,778
+33%
Year-To-Date (YTD) Volume Sales
YTD Expired Listings February Volume Sales
February Expired Listings February Average Sale Price
YTD Average Days-On-Market YTD Average Sale Price
NOTE: All MLS® sales data in this report comes from the Southern Georgian Bay Association Of REALTORS® and refers specifically to residential sales as of Mar. 3, 2021.. While deemed to be reliable, Royal LePage Locations North assumes no responsibility for errors and omissions.
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THE MARKET IN DETAIL (cont’d) The 2021 Southern Georgian Bay market is performing just as it did during the last half of 2020, with big record volume and unit sales. As Graph 3 shows, February followed January’s new monthly record with its own record, up 62% from last year’s benchmark. On the units side, Graph 4 shows a similar, though less pronounced, pattern. February’s 192 sales were up 26% from last year (on 16% fewer listings); and they were up 12% from 2016’s former record of 172. The biggest story though is that, due to increased sales and prices, units in the $500K+ bracket are up 91% from 2020’s record! All of this translates very well into the region’s year-to-date average sale price of $809,778, which is up 119%, 65%, 73%, 48% and 33% from 2016-2020 respectively. Graph 3: Southern Georgian Bay Monthly MLS® Sales 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021 (Volume) $300,000,000
2019 2020
$250,000,000
2021 $200,000,000
$150,000,000
$100,000,000
$50,000,000
$0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Graph 4: Southern Georgian Bay Monthly MLS® Sales 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021 (Units) 450
2019
400
2020
350
2021
300 250 200 150 100 50
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
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May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
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THE MARKET IN DETAIL (cont’d) As Graph 5 shows, 2021 unit sales are up from 2019 in five price ranges and down in two. The $500K-$799K, $800K$999K, $1M-$1.499M, $1.5M-$1.999M and $2M+ ranges are up 73%, 79%, 215%, 50% and 350% respectively. The Under-$300K and $300K-$499K ranges are down 73% and 38% respectively. More generally, the Under-$500K bracket – which accounts for 23% of 2021’s sales – is down 44% from a year ago. The $500K- 999K bracket – which accounts for 57% of all sales – is up 74%. And the $1M+ bracket – which accounts for 20% of all sales – is up 160%. Graph 5: Southern Georgian Bay MLS® Sales By Price 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021 (Units) 140
2019 133
2020
120
2021 108
100 91
80
74
77
2019
67
60
2000
50
27
20
28
22 12
6
0
2021
41
40
Under $300K
$300K-$499K
$500K-$799K
$800K-$999K
13 6 $1M-$1.499M
10
15
4 $1.5M-$1.999M
SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY MARKET REPORT: FEBRUARY 2021
3
9 2 $2M+
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SALES BY PROPERTY TYPE Graph 6: Southern Georgian Bay MLS® Sales By Property Type 2019 vs. 2020 vs. 2021 (Dollars and Units)
2021 $48,300,747
2021 IN DETAIL
2021
2021
$25,338,615
40
$211,638,145
233 Single Family
Single Family
Vacant Land
Condominium
2020
2020
Vacant Land
$6,097,000
$33,244,910
27
$124,853,595
180
Single Family
Single Family
2019
Condominium
Vacant Land
$17,974,000
$4,435,900
$211,638,145 UP 70% from 2020
AV. DAYS-ON-MARKET: 23 DOWN 40 days from 2020 $211,638,145
AV. SALE PRICE: $908,318 UP 31% from 2020 Single Family Condominium
2020
Vacant Land
CONDOS/TOWNS $6,097,000
$33,244,910
DOLLAR SALES: $48,300,747 UP 45% from 2020 UNIT SALES: 88 UP 10% from 2020
80
Condominium
$25,338,615 DOLLAR SALES : $48,300,747
UNIT SALES: 233 UP 29% from 2020
88
Condominium 2020
SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES 2021
2019
2019
Vacant Land
19
AV. DAYS-ON-MARKET: 30 $124,853,595 DOWN 14 days from 2020 AV. SALE PRICE: $548,872 Single Family UP 32% from 2020
2019
Condominium Vacant Land
$4,435,900
VACANT LAND
$17,974,000
DOLLAR SALES: $25,338,615 UP 316% from 2020
47
UNIT SALES: 40 UP 48% from 2020 $100,995,536
170
Single Family
Single Family
Condominium
Condominium
Single Family
Vacant Land
Condos/Towns
Vacant Land Vacant Land
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$100,995,536
AV. DAYS-ON-MARKET: 74 DOWN 6 days from 2020 Single Family
AV. SALE PRICE: $633,465 Condominium UP 181% from 2020 Vacant Land www.locationsnorth.com
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SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY’S AVERAGE SALE PRICES: 2010-2020 HUGE GAINS, BOTH GENERALLY AND RELATIVE TO INFLATION SGB’s average sale price for single-family homes in 2020 was $765,517: that’s up 28%, 44%, 50%, 86% and 150% from 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2010 respectively. 2020’s average condo price of $462,246 was up 23% 38%, 39%, 75% and 108% from 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2010 respectively. From 2010-2013 the average sale price of a single-family home increased at just under Canada’s inflation rate and then rose to 112% above inflation in 2020. Condo prices were under the inflation rate until 2015 before beginning to steadily climb in 2016 and finishing 70% above inflation in 2020.
$800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Single-Family Home Average Sale Price: 2010 > 2020 Canada’s Inflation Rate Based On SGB’s 2010 Single-Family Home Average Sale Price Condominium Average Sale Price: 2010 > 2020 Canada’s Inflation Rate Based On SGB’s 2010 Condominium Average Sale Price
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ROYAL LEPAGE LOCATIONS NORTH IN 2020 OUR 8TH STRAIGHT RECORD-BREAKING YEAR
WE BROKE OUR OWN SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY REGIONAL RECORD FOR ANNUAL MLS SALES VOLUME With $604,080,487 – up 91% from 2019 and up over 1000% from 2011
OVERALL WE HAD MORE THAN 4 TIMES THE SALES VOLUME OF OUR CLOSEST REGIONAL COMPETITOR
WE WERE #1 IN THE REGIONAL LUXURY HOME MARKET, WITH 4 TIMES THE UNIT SALES OF OUR CLOSEST COMPETITOR
Locations North Sales Volume, 2011 - 2020
2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2012
$53,047,171
2013
$89,145,175
2014
$96,796,883
2015
$121,934,732
2016
$159,707,227
2017 2018
$215,294,663 $268,894,323 $288,097,462
2019 2020
$316,114,237 $604,080,487
2020
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COLLINGWOOD 705-445-5520
THORNBURY 519-599-2136
330 First St.
27 Arthur St.
CREEMORE 705-881-9005
CRAIGLEITH 705-445-7799
154 Mill St.
209820 Hwy. 26 West.
MEAFORD 519-538-5755
WASAGA BEACH 705-429-4800
96 Sykes St.
1249 Mosley St.
STAYNER 705-428-2800
WASAGA BEACH 705-617-9969
7458 ON-26, #11.
1344 Mosley St. Unit 5.
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