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‘Broken record’ year expected: Farmers likely to see high yields, low prices – Page 2 Tuesday, March 13, 2018
A supplement to Sauk Valley Media
Experts forecast ‘broken record’ year of high yields, low prices BY RACHEL RODGERS For Today’s Farm
Barring big changes in production and demand, farmers are likely to see high yields and low market prices continuing into the 2018 season. That follows a trend of record-high yields for corn and soybeans but lean margin years from depressed prices. The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that 2017 corn yields in Illinois were 201 bushels per acres, up four bushels from 2016, and soybeans yields at 58 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from 2016. That’s another record-high yield for corn, and soybeans saw a record-high production of 612 million bushels.
In Iowa, last year’s corn yields are estimated at 202 bushels per acre, the second time Iowa’s average corn for grain yield has gone above the 200 bushels per acre mark, and the soybean crop yielded 56.5 bushels per acre. At 10 million acres planted, Iowa saw the most planted acres to soybeans since 2006. Corn and soybean prices are projected to be relatively similar to the past 3 years and lower than the 2007 through 2014 period when the projected price averaged $4.93 per bushel. Planning numbers for farmers remain in the mid-$9 range for soybeans and mid-$3 range for
corn, and fall delivery bids are near $3.60 per bushel for corn and $9.60 per bushel for soybeans. “At this point, futures prices suggest that the 2018 projected (crop insurance) price for corn will be near the 2017 price of $3.96 per bushel,” Gary Schnitkey, an agri-
culture economist at the University of Illinois, said in December. “The 2018 projected price for soybeans likely will be near but lower than the 2017 projected price of $10.19 per bushel.”
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Brad Shippert unloads his combine on his rural Dixon farm in October 2016. Farmers are likely to see high yields and low market prices continuing into the 2018 season.
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• March 13, 2018 Today’s Farm file photo
Another trend likely to continue this year is converting more and more corn acreage to soybeans, which have a more favorable price ratio for farmers as well as higher yields. corn were planted than in 2012, whereas soybean acres reached an all-time high of 90 million acres. Corn was more profitable from 2000 to 2012, though that shifted to soybeans in 2014, according to the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association. Illinois corn and soybean stockpiles both increased from 2016 – corn stocks totaled 2.08 billion bushels, up 5 percent, and soybean stocks totaled 511 million bushels, up 6 percent, according to the USDA. In Iowa, corn stocks totaled 2.38 billion bushels, down 1 percent from 2016, and soybean stocks totaled 487 million bushels, up 6 percent.
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Prices could take a hit if the nation pulls out of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which President Donald Trump has suggested, but that remains to be seen. Prices could go up, but it would take a sizable production problem in the U.S. or South America. Lee Schulz, an agriculture economist at Iowa State University, said many issues surrounding crop markets the past few years are likely to repeat this year. “Large crop supplies have been produced globally,” he said. “Crop demands have reached record levels, but crop stocks continue to build.” Farmers have been able to break even or turn a small profit during the trend, though it’s critical farmers are prepared for another lean year by cutting costs and improving efficiency. “The projected prices in recent years are somewhat of a ‘broken record’ in that the outlook is very similar in each year since 2015,” Schnitkey said. “Given that trend yields are received, projected prices are at levels that, at best, reflect marginal profitably on many farms.” Putting in early and bulk seed orders could help with costs as seed prices continue to rise. Another trend likely to continue this year is converting more and more corn acreage to soybeans, which have a more favorable price ratio for farmers as well as higher yields. “Since 2012, acres in the U.S. have been shifting out of corn and into soybeans, likely as a result of higher returns for soybeans than for corn,” Schnitkey said. Last year, 7 million less acres of
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TODAY’S FARM | Sauk Valley Media
More corn acreage converting to soybeans likely
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How early is too early to plant soybeans? If you do start earlier than normal, here are 6 recommendations to get most from crop BY DAN GRANT FarmWeekNow.com
The tradition of farmers waiting to plant soybeans until after they have their corn in the ground seems to be coming to an end. And for good reason. Farmers are finding early-planted beans have a longer growing season and often respond with better yields. “I’ve done a lot of field visits, and the top thing growers want is to plant early,” Stephanie Porter, a sales agronomist with Burrus Hybrids, said during the IlSoyAdvisor Soybean Summit in Springfield. So, what’s the best time to plant beans? Should farmers base their decision on the calendar or the weather? Porter said farmers should weigh all factors. “Think of it as corn,” Porter said. “When you’re ready to plant corn, that’s the same time you can plant beans.” In fact, some farmers plan to plant soybeans before corn this season while others are set up to plant both at the same time, Porter noted. Here are some of her planting recommendations: • Make sure the soil temperature isn’t expected to drop below 50 degrees in the first 48 hours after planting. That’s a critical period when the seed can suffer cold injury. • Make sure the soil is fit for planting and there’s no heavy rain in the weather forecast. • Make sure to know the replant
Michael Krabbenhoeft/Northern Illinois Ag Mag
Brad Shippert harvests soybeans on his rural Dixon farm in October 2016. Long before the harvest, there are some planting recommendations for farmers should consider. policy of your seed provider. • Plant an offensive variety with a fuller maturity. • A full seed treatment is recommended for early-planted beans. “When you’re planting earlier, think of higher management,” Porter said. “There’s a longer time for things to go wrong.” Planting populations vary widely, but generally range from 120,000 to 130,000 seeds per acre in the second half of April, while farmers
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may need to bump the seeding rate up to 140,000 to 150,000 in May. Early planting may also require a starter fertilizer and great attention to weed control to boost yields. Those factors are amplified even more for farmers who plant beans-
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TODAY’S FARM | Sauk Valley Media
Owner Grade A dairy farm says he can’t imagine not raising cows
Sauk Valley Media • March 13, 2018
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Demand questionable for spring fertilizer Market remains in flux due to a variety of moving parts BY JOE DILLIER FarmWeekNow.com
Ag commodities are never dull. Between crop yields that were much bigger than expected to a significant weakening in the U.S. dollar, there has been no shortage of surprises. Crop futures have been surprisingly stable. Fertilizers have been relatively more volatile in recent months. Most of the price movement has been up; prices are higher than six months ago. Where fertilizer pricing goes yet, pre-spring and through spring, will depend a lot on demand here in North America. China, as discussed in recent months, has been a big factor in fertilizer market action to date. It has continued to keep production rates for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers scaled way back. Its exports are down hard, and what had been an important supply source has been virtually nonexistent, especially since last summer. That’s definitely helped support prices to date – for urea and other nitrogen products (as nitrogen product differentials tend to be correlated over time) and for DAP/MAP. Demand has also been strong globally. Brazil’s imports of nitrogen, phosphates and potash keep spiking
higher. New global production capacity ex-China has come online, but that’s just kept things in check so far. New U.S. nitrogen plants that should have been up by now have had “fits and starts” issues and are not supplying much. Now here we are on the cusp of spring. For a fertilizer distributor and/or a retailer, the question is, how much supply should you position in anticipation of spring demand? Fall demand for P and K was surprisingly strong – big yields drove more consumption, which makes sense. Fall NH3 demand was up as prices bottomed, and November/December weather was conducive to application. But spring demand for nitrogen, in particular, has been weak the past
two springs, and replacement prices have been very weak by the end of spring into summer. Owning carryover inventory in that environment is not much fun, and corn acres may be down this year compared to 2017. The risk is that fertilizer demand surprises us this spring and overwhelms the “light” supply positioned across the marketplace, and/or the global supply/demand balance tightens substantially more over the next month or so and constricts import supplies still needed for spring. Base case/ most likely case is that things will be fine and supply will be in good shape. But stay close to your retailer as we go, as there are still a number of “moving parts” to the spring fertilizer market.
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No hybrid or variety will realize its full yield potential if weeds are not adequately and timely controlled, says U of I weed scientist
Be cautious about which expenditures you trim Lower commodity prices have many contemplating ways to reduce input costs in 2018. There are several options to reduce herbicide costs, but remember that no hybrid or variety will realize its full yield potential if weeds are not adequately and timely controlled. For example, assume a soybean farmer did not realize (or refuses to accept the fact) that glyphosate-resistant waterhemp infests a particular 60-acre field. The decision is made not to invest in an effective soil-residual herbicide; the farmer believes glyphosate alone will control the waterhemp. Following the in-crop application of glyphosate, two outcomes of this decision become rather obvious: poor control of waterhemp and weed
Photo courtesy of FarmWeekNow.com
Farmers’ goal should be zero weed seed production in 2018, says Aaron Hager, associate professor of weed science at the University of Illinois.
Dicamba Instances of sensitive soybean varieties demonstrating symptoms of exposure to dicamba were, unfortunately, common across much of Illinois in 2017. Forecasts of increased planted acres of these varieties in 2018 almost certainly will be accompanied by a concomitant increase in the amount of dicamba applied. MANAGEMENT continued on 84
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Even with all the time and resources expended to control weeds in 2017, one can be reasonably confident this persistent foe will again plague Illinois fields in 2018. As weed management practitioners begin to contemplate plans and programs for the season, we offer a few comments and suggestions for your consideration.
interference that continues to reduce soybean yield for much of the growing season. With a soybean yield potential of 65 bushels per acre, a modest yield loss of 20 percent due to weed interference and a soybean market price of $9 per bushel, the decision to save a few dollars in weed-control costs at the beginning of the season actually resulted in a revenue loss of more than $100 per acre through reduced soybean yield. Wise investments to manage weeds before interference reduces crop yields will realize a return through more bushels harvested at the end of the growing season. An investment in high-yielding hybrids and varieties should be coupled with an investment in weed management that adequately protects yield potential.
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BY AARON HAGER FarmWeekNow.com
TODAY’S FARM | Sauk Valley Media
Two weed-management considerations
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Select fields where dicamba technology can help the most MANAGEMENT CONTINUED FROM 7 t
The registration for dicamba use in dicamba-resistant soybean will expire Nov. 9. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) documents indicate the registration will automatically expire “… unless the EPA determines before that date that off-site incidents are not occurring at unacceptable frequencies or levels.” In other words, the continued availability to utilize dicamba in dicamba-resistant soybean is very much dependent on those who use it. Select fields where the dicamba technology can help the most; in other words, this technology is not absolutely necessary on every Illinois soybean acre. Contrary to claims by some manufacturers, viable and effective alternative technologies still exist. If you plant dicamba-resistant soybeans, it might be wise
to consider your options if you cannot make a timely post-emergence application of dicamba. For instance, if you plant dicamba soybeans in a field with waterhemp resistant to both glyphosate and PPO inhibitors and you cannot apply post-dicamba, you have no other effective herbicide options. Plant soybeans into weed-free conditions and apply a labeled rate of an effective soil residual herbicide. You can include dicamba and an in-field buffer at this time. Scout fields 14 days after emergence and apply dicamba before weeds are 2 to 3 inches tall. Consider adding an approved soil-residual herbicide with this early post-emergence treatment. Scout treated fields within 14 days of application. If control was not complete or another flush of weeds has emerged, consider using non-dicamba options for complete weed control. The goal should be zero weed seed production.
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