VOLUME 16 NUMBER 1 ■ COLUMBIABUSINESSREPORT.COM
Pounds for dollars What the strength of the British pound means to the S.C. economy. Page 8
Part of the
network
BOUND for DEVELOPMENT
Coffee in a clutch
Drive-thru java is having a moment in the Midlands. Page 4
Focus
Staffing expert talks about how COVID permanently changed the workplace. Page 16
Forecasting 2023
Economist Stephen Slifer shares what the tea leaves tell his trained eye. Page 12
State loses early convert to GOP
Arthur Ravenel dies after long life and long career. Page 21
INSIDE
Upfront ................................ 2 SC Biz News Briefs ................ 4 In Focus: Workforce and Staffing .............................. 16 List: Professional Staffing Firms ................................. 18 List: HR and Payroll ............ 19 At Work ............................. 20 Viewpoint ...........................23
CSX designates Kershaw County rail location as a Select Site to attract economic investment. Page 6
JANUARY 2023 ■ $2.25
Economist: Expect ‘inevitable’ recession by 2024 By Andy Owens
B
Contributing Writer
usiness owners should expect a recession to hit the U.S. economy in the first half of 2024, a Daniel Island economist said during an annual economic forecast in December. Stephen Slifer, a former chief economist for Lehman Brothers and former senior economist for the Federal Reserve, told hundreds of business owners, professionals and government officials in Charleston that the national economy continues to remain strong even with rising inflation fears and a looming recession. “The stock market has gotten whacked pretty good this year,” he said. “Yet, the economy keeps hanging in there.” If a recession does come in 2024, businesses could experience a recovery during the second half of that year, he said. Slifer, who writes a column for SC Biz publications and operates a data analytics firm in Charleston, said several indicators that economists watch are predicting a recession. “When are we expecting some sort of a recession?” Slifer said. “I don’t want to oversimplify this, but there’s a couple of things that I’m looking at. There’s all sorts of leading indicators.” Slifer said the real funds rate and the yield curve, along with specific federal policy changes, give economists a reason to think a recession will occur in 2024. The real funds rate is essentially the real interest rate with a subtraction for inflation, which indicates the actual cost of borrowing money and what a lender might expect as a return for lending money. Along with the real funds rate, Slifer said economists also look for an inverted yield curve. “It’s just the difference between long rates and short rates,” Slifer said. “Usually, long rates are higher than short rates, so See ECONOMIST, Page 11
A merging of the firms The NAI commercial real estate companies in Greenville and Columbia have merged. Page 10