June 2026
Victorian Greenfield Land Snapshot - June 2026
Gross Lot Sales
Median Lot Price
Median Lot Size
987
Melbourne & Regional Growth Areas vs. May 2026
$402,000
Melbourne Growth Areas
358sqm
Melbourne Growth Areas
vs. May 2026 No change
vs. May 2026
Gross sales across metropolitan and regional growth areas reduced to 987 lots in June, declining by 16% from the previous month. This continues the recent trend of fluctuating sales activity, with growth in March and May, followed by declines in April and June. Seasonal factors and the numbers of trading weekends each month largely explain the swings. However, overall lot sales remain relatively weak from a long-term perspective.
Market volatility, underpinned by successive interest rate rises and changes to taxation policy for residential investment, has impacted sentiment and led to more cautious behaviour from prospective buyers.
Source: RPM Market Intelligence
Share of sales jumps in Geelong and Ballarat.
The deterioration was felt most acutely across Melbourne growth areas. Lot sales in the Northern corridor contracted 30% in June, while South East and Western corridors both fell 20%.
The Northern corridor’s steeper drop pulled its share of total sales down to 22%, and the Western overtook it with a steadier 25% share. Conversely, new home demand climbed in Geelong and Ballarat, lifting their share of total lot sales to 16% and 10%, respectively.
Percentages rounded to the nearest whole number
Median price edges higher in Melbourne, contracts in
Weaker buyer activity in Melbourne limited the scope for price growth, with the median lot value holding steady at $402,000. Prices were further supported by a shift in the composition of lots sold to be slightly larger, highlighted by the 2.2% increase in the median lot size to 358sqm, and end of financial year campaigns offering rebates and discounts off lot prices.
Geelong moved in the opposite direction thanks to improved demand. Its median lot price rose 2.5% to $415,000, even though the median lot size shrank 6.2% to 417sqm, leading to its median $/sqm rate climbing by 9%.
Source: RPM Market Intelligence
The recent changes to taxation laws for residential investment is likely to lead to some shift in investor demand towards new dwellings and away from established dwellings, given the new tax settings.
This is highlighted in the example below, with tax payable on the capital gain for a new dwelling being lower compared to that for an established dwelling.
Furthermore, with negative gearing limited to new dwellings, this will increase their attractiveness compared to established dwellings.
Assumptions:
• Property held for 7 years and increases by an average of 5% per annum over that period.
• CPI increases by an average of 2.5% per annum over same period, creating the indexed cost base.
• Capital gain taxed at 39% (37% marginal tax rate + 2% Medicare levy).
June 2026
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Market Intelligence m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au
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Research Manager - VIC laurence@rpmgrp.com.au
Simon Brinkman Research Manager - QLD simon@rpmgrp.com.au
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