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VIC

VICTORIA GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025

Welcome Luke Kelly National Managing Director Built Form luke@rpmgrp.com.au

February’s rate rise was the first in over a year, and it landed into a market that had spent 2025 quietly rebuilding its confidence. Three rate cuts through 2025, combined with wage growth that outpaced inflation for most of the year, restored purchasing power and brought buyers back. Gross lot sales across metropolitan and regional growth areas finished Q4 up 59% on the same period in 2024. New lot supply in Melbourne rose 65% annually to 2,444 lots in Q4. Melbourne’s median lot price held just below $400,000 for the sixth consecutive quarter, and average time on market tightened to 140 days, the shortest in two years.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Restored purchasing power brought buyers back and strengthened year end momentum in 2025.

By the end of 2025, the market had earned some optimism. Many assumed this optimism would have been trimmed by the February rate rise, but Daniel Gradwell of ANZ notes that auction clearance rates and price indicators began easing as early as November, when the rate rise commentary intensified. Households had already begun pricing in where rates were headed. Though a single rate rise does not undo a recovery, it does change the calculations for first home buyers already operating at the edge of affordability. Constrained buyer affordability is also focusing viable development opportunities into smaller sites, which is where builder-developers* have built their edge.

Over recent years, builder-developers have emerged as serious competitors for greenfield development sites, and the market has been slow to price that in. One of our recent campaigns for a 66-lot permitapproved site in Epping drew the two strongest bids from interstate builder-developers. This group has grown significantly in capital access, strategic intent, and breadth. It’s also important to note that this group is increasingly well suited to the smaller, fragmented parcels that Victoria’s tightening pipeline is releasing. This report explores these and other dynamics in detail, unpacking the latest data and sentiment shifts shaping the Victorian greenfield market. We hope it provides a clear view of where demand is headed, what buyers are seeking, and how the industry is adjusting.

For more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au F or a detailed market analysis or a tailored report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

* Builder-developer refers to a company which acts as both the developer and builder.

What’s Inside

Q&A

Lead Indicators

Resurgent inflation has led to the cash rate rising in February, with further increases possibly.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Interest Rates What a rate rise actually means for borrowers, developers, and the housing market.

Development Sites Builder-developers are rewriting the rules on greenfield acquisitions.

Vacant Land Market Improved affordability sustained momentum, delivering a stronger finish to the year than seen in 2024.

Outlook The new home market remains best placed to help buyers overcome affordability challenges.

A Data Driven, Holistic Approach to Property RPM’s Research, Data & Insights division provides indepth analysis on current local and overseas economic and property market conditions. The team consists of economists, property experts, and GIS analysts that provide real-time market intelligence, and analytical and strategic advice. Our knowledge and expertise are an invaluable resource for RPM’s developer clients, empowering them to make intelligent, informed, and strategic decisions when evaluating residential developments and investment opportunities. Our data and analysis help clients maximise their marketing efforts and achieve sales targets on their estates. Each month we collect extensive data on approximately 350 estates in Victoria, 140 estates in Queensland and 180 in New South Wales, providing our clients with a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics. This also underpins the core strategic decision-making of our own business.

This rich data helps our team and clients to better understand:

Volume of lots sold

Distribution of lots of a particular size

Dollar per sqm rates

Distribution of price points

Stock release levels

Activity levels by market, product & developer

Volume of stock returned to market

Stock level fluctuations

We profile every lot including lot size, price, orientation, sqm rate and title status, monitoring through to final sale.

Your dedicated research team:

Michael Staedler

General Manager Research, Data & Insights

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Andrew Raponi

Senior Research Manager Research, Data & Insights

Laurence Rao

Research Manager - VIC Research, Data & Insights

Lead Indicators Cash Rate

AUS Unemployment Rate

VIC Annual Wage Growth Index

Melb. Median House Price

3.85%

4.10%

3.20%

$973,500

The first rate increase since November 2023. Unlikely to be the last over 2026.

Remained unchanged over the month and inline with the same time last year.

Victoria’s 3.2% annual wage growth to the Q4 ‘25 sits slightly below the national average of around 3.4%.

Rising 1.8% from September 2025 and 8.4% year-on-year.

February 2026

January 2026

December 2025

Quarterly GDP

Savings Ratio

VIC Avg. Weekly Earnings

VIC State Final Demand

0.80

6.90%

$2,080

0.69%

Australia’s economy grew 0.8% in Q4 and 2.6% over the year, indicating a gradual recovery.

The household savings ratio increased to 6.9% in Q4 ‘25, up from 6.1% in Q3 ‘25 and 5.5% a year earlier.

A solid 4.4% annual gain, above the national average.

SFD increased 0.69% in the Q4 ‘25, moderating from 1.59% in Q3 ‘25.

December 2025

November 2025

December 2025

AUS Annual Inflation

Exchange Rate AUD/USD

VIC Unemployment

VIC Employment Participation

3.80%

$0.70

4.20%

67.6%

Inflation remains above the target band, highlighting persistent cost pressures across the economy.

Reflecting moderate strength supported by commodity prices but still sensitive to movements from the RBA.

Declined over the month and also compared to the same time last year.

Remains elevated indicating a strong share of the population is either employed or actively seeking work.

January 2026

December 2025

January 2026

All information is as of the latest available datasets. VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Q&A WITH DANIEL GRADWELL

Interest Rates Daniel Gradwell Associate Director of Property ANZ

We don’t think we will need multiple hikes through 2026, so we expect the cash rate to remain at 4.1% for an extended period.

Do you expect further rate rises this year?

How has the market reacted to the rate rise?

From ANZ Research’s perspective, we’re expecting just one more rate hike this year, likely in May. Inflation has remained stubbornly above the RBA’s target band, and we think another increase will be required to ensure that inflation does start returning towards the target.

We’ve seen a clear inflection point in housing data dating back to around November last year, even before the rate rise itself. Auction clearance rates and daily price indicators from CoreLogic began to soften as commentary around potential hikes intensified.

However, we don’t think we will need multiple hikes through 2026, so we expect the cash rate to remain at 4.1% for an extended period. A couple of factors support this mild interest rate view, including business surveys showing inflationary expectations are still relatively subdued, and the appreciation of the Australian dollar which will help dampen imported inflation. That said, a lot needs to go right. The risks are still tilted toward the possibility of additional hikes if inflation proves stickier than expected, especially given events in the Middle East in recent weeks.

That tells you that sentiment plays a powerful role. It wasn’t necessarily the hike itself, but expectations around the direction of monetary policy that caused buyers to pause. Melbourne and Sydney in particular are more sensitive to that shift in tone, while some other markets have remained more resilient.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

It reinforces the idea that households respond not just to today’s rate setting, but to where they believe rates are headed over the next 6-12 months.

Construction cost inflation was a major pressure a few years ago. 22 Where does that stand now? And what is 20happening with rents? 18 16 Construction cost inflation has eased significantly 14 12 from the extreme pressures seen four to five years ago. 10 Costs are still rising, but at a much more moderate 8 6 pace, and the stronger Australian dollar is helping on 4 2 the imported materials side. Rents are more complex. 0 -2 Rental growth slowed last year, but leading indicators -4 (such as advertised rents) have started to pick up -6 12

again in 2026. It’s not at the levels we saw during the peak rental surge, but it’s moving in the wrong direction. Ultimately, it all comes back to supply. Tight vacancy rates and insufficient new housing mean rental pressures remain embedded in the system. Even marginal shifts (such as buyers delaying purchases and renewing leases) can add incremental damage to the rental pool. 13

House Construction Costs, y/y % Growth 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6

12 2012

13 2013

14 2014

15 2015

16 2016

Australia

17 2017

18 2018

19 2019

20 2020

Source: ANZ

Victoria

21 2021

22 2022

23 2023

24 2024

25 2025

Q&A WITH DANIEL GRADWELL

Interest Rates What is the impact of higher rates on borrowing capacity?

Has finance availability for residential development improved in recent years?

How does a rate rise affect development feasibility in practice?

A useful rule of thumb is that every 1% increase in interest rates reduces borrowing capacity by around 10%. So, a 25 basis point increase reduces capacity by roughly 2.5%.

Yes, significantly.

For developers, the impact of a single 25 basis point increase is relatively modest compared to other cost pressures.

In isolation, that’s not dramatic. But for buyers, particularly first home buyers, who are already at the margin of affordability, even a 2-3% reduction can be enough to push them out of a preferred price bracket.

There are two key changes. First, competition in the funding market has deepened. Alongside the major banks, smaller banks and a growing private credit sector, including offshore capital, are actively competing. That competition is healthy. It provides developers with greater flexibility and ensures that if one lender steps back, others can fill the gap.

If rates were to rise by a full percentage point, borrowing capacity could fall by around 10%, which would be much more material. At this stage, that scenario looks unlikely, but it illustrates how quickly capacity can compress when rates move in sequence.

Second, pre-sale requirements have eased. Five or six years ago, lenders often required 100% debt cover through pre sales before construction could commence. Today, that threshold has progressively reduced, in many cases to around 50%. That shift has been important. It helps break the circular problem where projects can’t start without pre sales, but buyers won’t commit until construction has visibly begun. Lower pre sale hurdles have materially improved the pathway for bringing new supply to market.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

If a $10 million project is funded at 75% debt, with interest around 7.5%, the annual interest bill might sit at around $600,000. A 25 basis point increase moves that only marginally. By comparison, a 5% increase in construction costs can have a far larger dollar impact on feasibility. So, while rate rises do increase the cost base, construction costs and delivery risk are typically more material factors for development viability than a single incremental rate hike.

Development Sites

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Development Sites Tim Hyland National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au

In several recent land campaigns across Victoria’s growth corridors, the strongest offers have not come from the typical parties. Builder-developers* long viewed as secondary players in site acquisitions, are now regularly outbidding the traditional land developers who once owned the market. A recent campaign for a 66-lot permit-approved site in Epping is a prime example. The two strongest bids came from interstate builder-developers. This builder-developer cohort was shaped by the volume house and land sector. As that market compressed, chasing allocations across multiple estates stopped making commercial sense for the more ambitious operators. Owning a site outright offered something the allocation model never could: direct control over the pipeline, the product, and the margin. Groups like Metricon and Henley moved early. What has changed is the breadth of adoption.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Builder-developers are rewriting the rules on greenfield acquisitions.

Direct acquisition is no longer the domain of a few major builders – it is now standard practice across a much wider range of operators.

consistent with a pattern across multiple RPM T&A campaigns, and it’s clear that these groups are not simply testing the waters.

A second wave emerged from medium density builders who built their businesses on bookend sites within larger estates, typically 8-12 dwellings at a time. The reasoning for consolidation was straightforward; one superlot producing 70 dwellings is a more efficient proposition than seven separate engagements producing the same output. Margin is cleaner, operational complexity is lower, and a project at that scale has genuine brand presence with end buyers. For groups investing in their consumer brands, that visibility carries commercial value beyond any single project.

Supply conditions have reinforced this trend. Victoria’s PSP approvals have slowed materially, and remaining pipeline land tends to arrive in smaller, fragmented parcels rather than large contiguous englobo tracts. For developers pursuing masterplanned estates at scale, this is a structural headwind.

Interstate buyers have added pressure that the local market was slow to anticipate. Builders from other states have formed a clear view that Melbourne’s greenfield corridors offer acquisition value unavailable at home, and they’re pricing that conviction into their bids. The Epping result mentioned previously is

For builder-developers targeting sites in the 20-150 lot range, it describes the available stock fairly well. The tightening of the pipeline has directed more viable opportunity toward the buyer type best placed to act on it. Capital access has shifted in parallel. Builderdevelopers are now competing for private and offshore funding on comparable terms to established land developers. The assumption that this cohort sits a rung below on the capital ladder is no longer supported.

The builder-developer buyer pool is larger, better resourced, and more strategically motivated than this market has historically acknowledged. Superlot opportunities that once generated modest interest are now producing genuine competitive tension. * Builder-developers refer to a company which acts as both the developer and builder.

For more information on development site opportunities, contact Tim Hyland tim@rpmgrp.com.au Zaynoun Melhem zaynoun@rpmgrp.com.au

Vacant Land Market

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Vacant Land Market Overview Rod Anderson National Managing Director Communities rod@rpmgrp.com.au

Purchaser sentiment closed 2025 on firmer footing than a year earlier. Gross sales reached 3,957 lots across metropolitan and regional growth areas in Q4 2025, up 59% on Q4 2024. Activity eased just 5% from Q3, a modest decline given fewer trading days and seasonal sales office closures. Improved affordability supported the lift in demand. Three interest rate cuts through 2025, combined with wage growth running ahead of inflation for most of the year, restored borrowing capacity. End of year developer campaigns added momentum, particularly for buyers ready to enter the new home market. Incentives were largely directed toward titled stock, which accounted for 37% of total sales. That share has trended lower across 2025 and was just 30% in Melbourne’s growth areas. With titled supply tightening, developers responded by bringing forward new stages. Melbourne recorded 2,444 lot releases in Q4, steady on the prior quarter and 65% higher year on year.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Improved affordability sustained momentum, delivering a stronger finish to the year than seen in 2024.

In the regional markets, titled lots made up 61% of sales, with the strongest concentration in Geelong and Ballarat. The heavier reliance on existing titled stock has slowed new stage releases. Only 424 lots were released across regional growth areas in Q4, still 5% below the same period from the previous year. In Melbourne, a greater share of recently released, untitled stock sold during the quarter. Average time on market improved to 140 days, the shortest result in two years. Regional markets remains slower, with selling periods extending in the last 12 months. Product mix continues to adjust. Smaller formats are gaining traction. Townhomes and small lot housing code products were prominent in Melbourne, while regional buyers favoured conventional lots between 300-450sqm. Melbourne’s median lot size eased 1% to 350sqm. The median price also declined 1% to $395,000, holding just below $400,000 for the sixth consecutive quarter.

Lots Sold

Melbourne Median Lot Price

3,957

$395,000

-5% over quarter | +59% annually

-1% over quarter | -1% annually

Q4 2025

Trading Days of Lots Sold

Melbourne Median Lot Size

140

350sqm

Improved notably from 170 days last quarter.

-2% over quarter | No change annually.

Q4 2025

Gross Lot Sales Lot Sales by Price Bracket in Melbourne

% Contribution to Total Gross Lot Sales Q4 2025

34% $425K>

Macedon & Mitchell Drouin & Warragul Bendigo

34% 30% 12%

$401K-$425k

South East

13%

Ballarat

12%

11%

14% $376k-$400k

20%

12%

Geelong

13% 12% $351k-$375k

11% 10%

29%

Western

Northern

28% <$350k

26% 34%

5% Q4 2025

10% Q4 2024

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

15%

20%

Q4 2023

25%

30%

35%

40% Percentages rounded to the nearest whole number

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Melbourne and Geelong Buyer Surveys We survey all buyers on RPM managed projects in the greenfield market. The following illustrates demographic and purchase intent amongst all purchasers over Q4 2025. For a detailed analysis of any corridor, LGA, or suburb in Victoria, please contact our Research, Data & Insights team.

First Home Second Home Third Home Fourth Home Other

50% 33% 6% 9% 3%

Purchase Type Townhome House & Land Land Only

contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

Data collected from approximately 295 RPM Buyer Surveys

Home & Land Budget

Owner Occupier Type

11% 21% 69%

>$950k

$900-950k

37%

$850-900k

$800-850k

Investor

$750-800k

13%

$700-750k

14%

$650-700k

16%

$600-650k

12%

$550-600k

11%

63%

$500-550k

$450-500k

$400-450k

Owner Occupier

<$400k

Period to Start Build After Settlement

Household Type Group Household Single Couple Family

2% 16% 24% 58%

>12 Months 6-12 Months 3-6 Months Within 3 Months Immediately

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Size of Home Including Garage 3% 6% 9% 25% 58%

No. of Visits to Estate Prior to Purchase

Country of Origin Australia India Philippines

Owner Occupier vs. Investor

45% 30% 6%

>Four Three Two One

18% 21% 33% 22% 5%

>30 sqs 26-30 sqs 21-25 sqs 16-20 sqs <15 sqs

No. Storeys Considered 14% 13% 24% 49%

Undecided Double Storey Single Storey

9% 23% 68%

Growth Corridor Snapshot Q4 2025 BENDIGO

MACEDON & MITCHELL

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

-73 sales

-10 releases

+$33,000

$295k

Median Size (sqm)

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

+54sqm

+5 sales

+8 releases

+$2,000

576

NORTHERN CORRIDOR New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

+51 sales

+267 releases

-$1,000

1,061

$392k

658

Median Size (sqm)

Bendigo

-22sqm

WESTERN CORRIDOR

Gross Lot Sales

1,165

Median Size (sqm)

$386k

Median Size (sqm)

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

No change

-143 sales

- 240 releases

No change

350

1,128

747

$381k

350

Macedon & Mitchell

-6sqm

Ballarat

BALLARAT

GREATER GEELONG

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

+52 sales

-33 releases

-$15,000

172

$270k

Median Size (sqm)

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

-8sqm

+62 sales

-68 releases

+$7,000

441

SOUTH EAST CORRIDOR New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

-157 sales

-49 releases

+$5,500

636

448

199

$384k

$443k

Median Size (sqm)

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

-16sqm

-6 sales

-16 releases

+$7,000

353

$324k

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights - as at Q4 2025. All differences are expressed as changes from the previous quarter.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Western Corridor

Median Size (sqm)

394 +2sqm

DROUIN & WARRAGUL

Gross Lot Sales

782

Northern Corridor

Median Size (sqm)

503 -1sqm

Geelong

South East Corridor

Drouin & Warragul

Wallan $330,000

Beveridge $346,000

What Does a 350sqm Lot Cost?

Mickleham $432,000

Kalkallo $396,000 Donnybrook $372,000

Sunbury $359,000

Craigieburn $442,000 Greenvale $495,000

Wollert $441,000

Woodstock $360,000 Mernda $420,000

Bulla Fraser Rise $355,000 Bonnie Brook $405,500 $400,500

Melton South $325,000 Strathtulloh $352,000

Aintree $431,000

Deanside $400,000

Thornhill Park $359,000 Tarneit $397,450 Manor Lakes $360,000 Mambourin $355,000

Truganina $403,000

Wyndham Vale $398,000 Werribee $374,000

Officer $487,000

Lara $367,850

Cranbourne East $442,000 Bellarine $350,000

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Armstrong Creek $365,000

Clyde Nth $442,000

Clyde $415,000

Nar Nar Goon Nth $399,000

Nar Nar Goon $385,000

Western Growth Corridor

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Western Growth Corridor - Buyer Activity Gross Lot Sales

1,128

-11% vs Q3 2025

Gross Sales - Q4 2025 The Western growth corridor recorded 1,128 gross lot sales in Q4, down 11% from Q3 but remaining Melbourne’s most active region. Strong family-buyer participation and steady enquiry supported activity, with established estates outperforming newer releases. Titled stock remained popular, offering immediate build readiness and shorter settlement timelines; contributing to longer trading days but stronger settlement reliability. Meanwhile builder promotions (particularly in Wyndham’s northern precincts) helped balance softer demand earlier in the quarter. Enquiry held firm toward the end of year despite no further interest rate cuts, highlighting the corridor’s underlying depth of demand.

1,800

250

1,600 200

1,400 1,200

150

1,000 800

100

600 400

200 0

Dec-22

Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Average Trading Days of Lots Sold

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Average Sales (10 Years)

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Average Trading Days

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Western Growth Corridor - Vacant Land Stock Number of Lots Added to Market

747

-24% vs Q3 2025

New Lots Released - Q4 2025 New supply across Wyndham and Melton remained measured, with developers pacing stage releases in line with demand. Supply marginally outpaced absorption late in the quarter, though the uplift in available stock was modest and had no material impact on pricing or incentives. Lower cancellation rates improved pipeline stability. Stock returns declined for a second consecutive quarter, reinforcing improved buyer retention as affordability stabilised. Developers continued to prioritise clearing titled and near titled stock, particularly within estates carrying larger pipelines into 2026. By quarter’s end, most major projects held manageable stock levels, with no significant overhang despite softer sales. This positions the West for steady release activity in early 2026.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

Dec-22

Mar-23

New Stock Releases

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Stock Returned to Market

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Western Growth Corridor - Lot Price and Size Median Lot Price

$381,000

NC vs Q3 2025

Median Lot Price - Q4 2025 Median lot pricing eased 1% in Q4 from $386,000 to $381,000. Median lot size declined 3% to 350sqm, returning to a profile more consistent with longer term product mix. On a $/sqm, pricing was broadly flat, reflecting sustained buyer caution and strong competition between estates. The corridor continues to offer some of the strongest value per sqm outcomes in metropolitan Melbourne. This is supporting enquiry, even as borrowing conditions stabilise. Buyers are favouring efficient layouts and builder aligned blocks that maximise affordability. With stock levels balanced and demand steady, upward price pressures remain limited. Some modest firming may emerge in early 2026 if titled supply tightens.

$390,000

357 356

$385,000

355 $380,000 354 $375,000

353 352

$370,000

351

$365,000

350 $360,000 349 $355,000 $350,000

348

Dec-22 Mar-23

Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Median Lot Size (sqm)

Jun-23

Median Lot Price

Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25 Dec-25

347

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Northern Growth Corridor

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Northern Growth Corridor - Buyer Activity Gross Lot Sales

1,165

+5% vs Q3 2025

Gross Lot Sales - Q4 2025 The Northern growth corridor recorded 1,165 gross lot sales in Q4, up 5% on Q3. Hume remained the key driver, with consistent absorption across major masterplanned communities, while Whittlesea and Mitchell maintained steady entry level demand. Sales were strongest in well located stages offering flexible deposits and clear build pathways as more projects progressed through titles. Off the plan demand continues to distinguish the North. Buyers are willing to commit earlier in the delivery cycle, supporting momentum and reinforcing the corridor’s appeal to first home buyers seeking attainable price points.

1,400

180 160

1,200

140 1,000 120 800

100

600

80 60

400 40 200

Dec-22

Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Average Trading Days of Lots Sold

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Average Sales (10 Years)

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Average Trading Days

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Northern Growth Corridor - Vacant Land Stock Number of Lots Added to Market

1,061

+34% vs Q3 2025

New Lots Released - Q4 2025 New supply lifted modestly in Q4, with steady stage releases across Hume and Mitchell. No major new estates launched, keeping supply aligned with demand. Stock returns declined for a second consecutive quarter, pointing to stronger purchaser commitment. Total available stock edged lower by the quarter’s end, leaving the North with one of the tighter pipelines entering 2026. A measured release strategy continues to limit volatility and support pricing stability. Developers reported firmer off the plan enquiry into December, indicating improving momentum. The corridor enters the new year in a comparatively strong position.

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

Dec-22

Mar-23

New Stock Releases

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Stock Returned to Market

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Northern Growth Corridor - Lot Price and Size Median Lot Price

$386,000

-0.3% vs Q3 2025

Median Lot Price - Q4 2025 Median lot pricing in the Northern corridor rose 3% in Q4 from 374,500 to $386,000, supported by strong sales in major estates. Median lot size remained at 350sqm, producing a modest lift in $/sqm rates. The corridor continues to offer a balanced value proposition, keeping pricing aligned with first home buyer budgets. This balance supports steady absorption even amid a cautious economic backdrop. Looking ahead, price growth is expected to remain moderate, with stronger gains likely only if supply tightens significantly through 2026.

$390,000

370

$385,000

365

$380,000 360

$375,000 $370,000

355

$365,000

350

$360,000 345

$355,000 $350,000

Dec-22 Mar-23

Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Median Lot Size (sqm)

Jun-23

Median Lot Price

Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25 Dec-25

340

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

South East Growth Corridor

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

South East Growth Corridor - Buyer Activity Gross Lot Sales

782

-17% vs Q3 2025

Gross Lot Sales - Q4 2025 The South East corridor recorded 782 gross lot sales in Q4, down 17% from Q3 but remaining above its long term average. Casey led the region, while Cardinia saw stronger interest in more affordable eastern precincts. Trading days improved as titled lots absorbed more quickly, supported by end of year incentives. Officer and Cranbourne estates reported higher enquiry in December, reflecting steady demand. Despite softer quarterly activity, the corridor maintained a strong upgrader cohort. Buyers responded to improved borrowing conditions and clearer construction timelines, sustaining a consistent baseline of monthly sales.

1,000

180

900

160

800

140

700

120

600

100

500 80

400

300

200 100

Dec-22

Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Average Trading Days of Lots Sold

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Average Sales (10 Years)

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Average Trading Days

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

South East Growth Corridor - Vacant Land Stock Number of Lots Added to Market

636

-7% vs Q3 2025

New Lots Released - Q4 2025 New supply in the South East growth corridor rose 18% in Q3 to 685 lots, driven entirely by Casey, where three new estates were launched – the only new estates across the corridor. Stock returns fell 41% from the previous quarter, improving to 79 lots. With sales continuing to outpace supply, total available stock at the end of Q3 dropped below 1,000 lots, reaching its lowest level since mid-2024.

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Dec-22

Mar-23

New Stock Releases

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Stock Returned to Market

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

South East Growth Corridor - Lot Price and Size Median Lot Price

$443,500

+1% vs Q3 2025

Median Lot Price - Q4 2025 Median lot pricing in the South East rose 1% in Q4 from $437,500 to $443,500. Median lot size fell 3% to 352.5sqm, moderating the $/sqm rates as buyers favoured smaller, more efficient lots. Premium precincts in Berwick South, Cranbourne East, and Officer South continued to command higher values, reflecting strong spatial segmentation and buyer willingness to pay for established amenity and transport access. Looking ahead, price growth is expected to remain moderate, with tighter stock potentially driving upward pressure in select location.

400

$470,000 $460,000

390

$450,000 380

$440,000 $430,000

370

$420,000 360

$410,000 $400,000

350

$390,000 340

$380,000 $370,000

Dec-22 Mar-23

Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Median Lot Size (sqm)

Jun-23

Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Median Lot Price

Jun-24

Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25 Dec-25

330

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Greater Geelong Corridor

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Greater Geelong - Buyer Activity Gross Lot Sales

448

+16% vs Q3 2025

Gross Lot Sales - Q4 2025 Greater Geelong recorded 448 lot sales in Q4, up 16% from Q3. Armstrong Creek accounted for most activity, supported by strong builder alignment and renewed demand for titled stock. Enquiry increased into late December across high-activity estates. Lara and surrounding precincts maintained steady volumes, benefiting from relative affordability and access to established transport links. Buyers remained mindful of build timelines but responded to clearer delivery pathways. Sentiment improved late in the quarter as borrowing conditions stabilised and construction lead times became more predictable, supporting a rise in upgrade-driven enquiry.

600

400 350

500

300 400

250

300

200 150

200

100 100

Dec-22

Mar-23

Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Average Trading Days of Lots Sold

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Average Sales (10 Years)

Mar-24

Jun-24

Average Trading Days

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Greater Geelong - Vacant Land Stock Number of Lots Added to Market

199

-25% vs Q3 2025

New Lots Released - Q4 2025 New supply rose slightly, through fewer new estates launched compared with Melbourne’s growth corridors. Stock returns increased modestly but remained manageable, allowing new available stock to decline by quarter’s end. Developers focused on clearing titled and near titled lots ahead of larger 2026 releases, supporting pricing stability across major precincts. Supply conditions remained balanced, with most estates holding manageable inventory and solid enquiry pipelines as the region enters the new year.

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Dec-22

Mar-23

New Stock Releases

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Stock Returned to Market

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Greater Geelong - Lot Price and Size Median Lot Price

$384,000

+2% vs Q3 2025

Median Lot Price - Q4 2025 Median lot pricing in Greater Geelong rose 2% in Q4, from $376,900 to $384,000. Median lot size increased 1% to 393sqm, reflecting a shift toward slightly larger lots in key Armstrong Creek stages and helping to stabilise $/sqm values. The corridor continues to attract value driven buyers seeking larger lots at more accessible prices than metropolitan areas, supporting steady absorption and a strong end of year sales profile. Pricing is expected to remain steady into early 2026, with upward pressure likely only if supply tightens more meaningfully.

$410,000

500

$405,000

450

$400,000

400

$395,000

350

$390,000

300

$385,000

250

$380,000

200

$375,000

150

$370,000

100

$365,000

$360,000

Dec-22 Mar-23

Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Median Lot Size (sqm)

Jun-23

Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Median Lot Price

Jun-24

Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25 Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Ballarat

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Ballarat - Buyer Activity Average Trading Days of Lots Sold

Gross Lot Sales

172

+43% vs Q3 2025

250

600

Gross Lot Sales - Q4 2025 Ballarat saw a strong lift in Q4, with 172 lot sales, up 43% from Q3’s 120. This was one of the strongest quarterly results of 2025, driven by improving buyer sentiment and stabilising borrowing conditions. Sales remained concentrated in western growth precincts with smaller contributions from the southern corridor. Eastern and northern areas continued at low but steady levels. Buyer enquiry strengthened through December, supported by builder incentives and the clearing of titled stock ahead of 2026 releases.

500

200

400 150 300 100 200

100

Dec-22

Mar-23

Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Average Sales (10 Years)

Mar-24

Jun-24

Average Trading Days

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Ballarat -Vacant Land Stock Number of Lots Added to Market

-57% vs Q3 2025

New Lots Released - Q4 2025 Ballarat saw 25 new lots released in Q4, down from 58 in Q3, reflecting a more conservative release approach. Stock returns rose slightly to 28 lots, largely due to settlement delays on older contracts. Despite softer releases, total stock declined as absorption improved. The stock overhang fell for a second consecutive quarter, leaving Ballarat with a balanced supply position entering 2026. Developers remain cautious but optimistic, expecting steady demand to continue into the near year.

350

300

250

200

150

100

Dec-22

Mar-23

New Stock Releases

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q4 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Stock Returned to Market

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Ballarat - Lot Price and Size Median Lot Price

$270,000

-5% vs Q3 2025

Median Lot Price - Q4 2025 The median lot price in Ballarat fell 5% from $285,000 to $270,000, reflecting stronger activity in more affordable products.

Median Lot Size (sqm)

$350,000

600

$300,000

500

$250,000 400

Median lot size declined slightly to 440sqm, down 2% from Q3, leaving the $/sqm rate largely unchanged.

$200,000

Despite the softening, Ballarat remains one of regional Victoria’s most affordable new home markets, sustaining interest from first home buyers and upgrader families.

$150,000

300

200 $100,000 100

$50,000

Dec-22 Mar-23

Median Lot Size

Jun-23

Median Lot Price

Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25 Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Bendigo

Bendigo - Buyer Activity Average Trading Days of Lots Sold

Gross Lot Sales

-43% vs Q3 2025

Gross Lot Sales - Q4 2025 Bendigo’s new home market contracted in Q4, with 96 lot sales, down 43% from Q3 after an extended period of strong activity.

180

500

160

450 400

140

350

120

Despite the slowdown, sales were 52% higher than Q4 2024, indicating the market remains healthier than a year ago. Activity was led by the northern corridor, while southern and western precincts remained subdued.

100

New supply fell 12% to 75 lots, reflecting more cautious release strategies to softer buyer demand.

300 250

200 150

100

Dec-22

Mar-23

Gross Lot Sales

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Average Sales (10 Years)

Mar-24

Jun-24

Average Trading Days

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Bendigo - Vacant Land Stock Number of Lots Added to Market

-12% vs Q3 2025

New Lot Released - Q4 2025 Stock returns remained low, with just 7 lots re-entering the market through cancellations. Combined with reduced new supply, total stock tightened to 283 lots; Bendigo’s lowest level in 2025. The stock overhang fell 7% to 187 unsold lots, driven mainly by lower supply rather than stronger buyer activity. Regional segmentation persisted, with the northern precinct holding the largest share of available stock, while eastern and western areas saw notable contractions.

120

100

Dec-22

Mar-23

New Stock Releases

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Stock Returned to Market

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Bendigo - Lot Price and Size Median Lot Price

$295,000

+13% vs Q3 2025

Median Lot Price - Q4 2025 The median lot price in Bendigo rose 13% in Q4, from $262,000 to $295,000, driven by fewer smaller, lower priced northern lots in the sales mix. Median lot size also increased 13% to 576sqm, supporting stronger headline price growth while keeping the $/sqm rate steady at $512. Overall, the Q4 price increase reflects changes in lot composition rather than broad based value growth.

$310,000

700

$300,000

600

$290,000

500

$280,000

400

$270,000

300

$260,000

200

$250,000

100

$240,000

Dec-22 Mar-23

Median Lot Size

Median Lot Size (sqm)

Jun-23

Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Median Lot Price

Jun-24

Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25 Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Drouin & Warragul

Drouin & Warragul - Buyer Activity Gross Lot Sales

-6% vs Q3 2025

Gross Lot Sales - Q3 2025 The Drouin and Warragul corridor recorded 98 lot sales in Q4, down 6% from Q3’s 104. Despite the slight decline, activity remains well above early 2024 levels, supported by stronger affordability compared with Melbourne’s fringe corridors. Warragul led the market, while Drouin contributed steady but lower volumes. Momentum stabilised through December, aided by builder incentives that helped maintain enquiry.

Average Trading Days of Lots Sold

120

450 400

100 350 80

300 250

60 200 40

150 100

20 50 0

Dec-22

Mar-23

Gross Lot Sales

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Average Sales (10 years)

Mar-24

Jun-24

Average Trading Days

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Drouin & Warragul - Vacant Land Stock Number of Lots Added to Market

-19% vs Q3 2025

New Lot Released - Q4 2025 New releases in Drouin and Warragul totalled 70 lots, down from 86 in Q3 as developers adopted a more measured release approach. Stock returns rose slightly to 21 lots, though cancellation rates remained within normal ranges. Total stock remains elevated but stable, with supply expected to ease in early 2026 as sales and releases stay broadly aligned. The corridor continues to benefit from relocation trends, supported by activity in Nar Nar Goon, Pakenham East, and key Gippsland transport links.

140

120

100

Dec-22

Mar-23

New Stock Releases

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Stock Returned to Market

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Drouin & Warragul - Lot Price and Size Median Lot Price

$324,000

+2% vs Q3 2025

Median Lot Price - Q4 2025

Median Lot Size (sqm)

$360,000

700

600

$350,000

The median lot price in Drouin and Warragul rose 2% in Q4, from $317,000 to $324,000, partially reversing Q3’s decline. Warragul continued to influence overall pricing with its smaller lot formats and higher sales volumes.

$340,000

Median lot size dipped slightly to 502sqm, down 0.5%, keeping the $/sqm rate stable.

$330,000

Overall, pricing movements remain modest and largely reflect changes in the mix of lots sold rather than broad value shifts.

$320,000

500

400

300

200 $310,000

$300,000

100

Dec-22 Mar-23

Median Lot Size

Jun-23

Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Median Lot Price

Jun-24

Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25 Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Macedon & Mitchell

Macedon and Mitchell - Buyer Activity Gross Lot Sales

Average Trading Days of Lots Sold

700

+8% vs Q3 2025

Gross Lot Sales - Q4 2025

Macedon and Mitchell recorded 68 lot sales in Q4, up 8% from Q3’s 63. This marks the third consecutive quarter of growth, supported by stabilising buyer sentiment and stronger engagement in Kilmore and Wallan.

Sales remain well above early 2025 levels, with several new masterplan stages achieving stronger than expected absorption late in the year.

600

500

50 400

300 30 200

100

10 0

Dec-22

Mar-23

Gross Lot Sales

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Average Sales (10 Years)

Mar-24

Jun-24

Average Trading Days

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Macedon and Mitchell - Vacant Land Stock Number of Lots Added to Market

120

+17% vs Q3 2025

New Lots Released - Q4 2025 New releases in Macedon and Mitchell rose to 55 lots, up from 47 in Q3, reflecting growing developer confidence. Stock returns edged up to 16 lots, in line with typical seasonal patterns. Total available stock increased modestly but remained manageable, with buyer depth steady across both shires. Developers continue to focus on maintaining supply balance into 2026. The slight rise in stock did not affect pricing or enquiry, reflecting sustained demand and improving regional market conditions.

100

Dec-22

Mar-23

New Stock Releases

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Stock Returned to Market

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25

Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Macedon and Mitchell - Lot Price and Size Median Lot Price

$392,000

+1% vs Q3 2025

Median Lot Price - Q4 2025 The median lot price in Macedon and Mitchell rose 1% in Q4 from $390,000 to $392,000, closing the year on a stable note. Prices remain aligned with the region’s long term average, with limited volatility in 2025. Median lot size fell slightly to 658sqm, down 3%, reflecting a higher share of medium sized lots in the sales mix. The $/sqm rates remained steady, supported by a balanced product mix and consistent buyer demand.

Median Lot Size (sqm)

$500,000

720

$450,000

700

$400,000

680

$350,000

660

$300,000

640

$250,000 620

$200,000

600

$150,000

580

$100,000 $50,000

560

540

Dec-22 Mar-23

Median Lot Size

Jun-23

Median Lot Price

Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25

Jun-25

Sep-25 Dec-25

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Victorian Greenfield Market Outlook Michael Staedler General Manager Research, Data & Insights m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au

Momentum in new home demand continued into 2026, with January enquiry and lot sales activity stronger than the same period in 2025. This resilience came despite monthly inflation running between 3.4-3.8% since September, increasing the prospect of an interest rate rises. In response, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 25 basis points in February, partially reversing last year’s easing trend. Early effects have been modest. Borrowing capacity is estimated to have fallen by 2-3%, coinciding with a slight reduction in enquiries during February. Some moderation in confidence is also evident in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report, where the time to buy a dwelling index fell.

The new home market remains best placed to help buyers overcome affordability challenges

The trajectory for interest rates remains biased to the upside, with inflation expected to return gradually to the 2-3% target range. While higher rates may continue to temper sentiment, the new home market is well positioned to absorb affordability pressures. The premium for new lots over similarly located established houses has narrowed. Melbourne’s median house price increased 8.4% in 2025, compared with a 1.3% decline in median lot prices, supporting the relative value of new homes. Product mix is also reinforcing accessibility. Townhomes and small lot housing code products* are increasingly incorporated into metropolitan masterplans, providing more affordable options while aligning supply with demand. Peri-urban and regional growth areas remain viable alternatives for buyers seeking new homes outside metropolitan corridors.

Additional support comes from developer rebates, government grants, and low deposit or help to buy schemes. Early 2026 RPM Buyer Surveys highlight the impact of these incentives, with 25-34 year olds (representing first home buyers most sensitive to interest rate changes) forming the largest cohort of owner occupier purchasers. Overall, despite emerging headwinds from inflation and rising rates, the new home market has entered 2026 with solid underlying demand. Affordability measures, diversified product offerings, and targeted incentives continue to attract first home buyers and owner occupiers. This positions the new home market to maintain steady lot sales and enquiry through the first half of the year, even as the broader economic environment remains cautious. *Lots smaller than 300sqm.

For more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au F or a detailed market analysis or a tailored report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

Our Team Research, Data & Insights Michael Staedler

General Manager Research, Data & Insights m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au

Andrew Raponi

Senior Research Manager a.raponi@rpmgrp.com.au

Laurence Rao

Simon Brinkman

Rod Anderson

Peter Grant

Research Manager - VIC laurence@rpmgrp.com.au

Research Manager - QLD simon@rpmgrp.com.au

Executive, Sales and Marketing Leadership Paul McMahon

Luke Kelly

Chief Operating Officer paul@rpmgrp.com.au

National Managing Director Built Form luke@rpmgrp.com.au

National Managing Director Communities rod@rpmgrp.com.au

Imogene Schaefer

Michael Vilar

Greg Rankin

General Manager Marketing imogene@rpmgrp.com.au

Tim Hyland

National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au

General Manager Medium Density michaelv@rpmgrp.com.au

General Manager Communities gregr@rpmgrp.com.au

National Managing Director Business Development peter@rpmgrp.com.au

Johnathon Driessen

General Manager Communities johnathon@rpmgrp.com.au

Unlocking Australia’s Property Landscape For detailed insights or custom reporting, contact the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

RPM Victorian Greenfield Market Report - Q4 2025