1
VIC Greenfield Market Report Q2 2026
MARKET INTELLIGENCE SEQ APARTMENTS AND TOWNHOMES MARKET REPORT APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP
2
Welcome Luke Kelly National Managing Director Built Form luke@rpmgrp.com.au
Victoria’s greenfield market did not move as one market this quarter, it split. Some corridors pulled back hard, slowing supply and sales, while others kept building. That gap between the two ends of the market is now the thing to watch for the rest of the year.
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Housing demand turned more selective in Q2. The divide now is between corridors that are absorbing stock and corridors that aren’t.
The report walks through where that split is happening, what is driving it on both the demand and supply side, and what it means for buyers, developers and anyone transacting land through the second half of 2026.
RPM National Strategy Manager of Transactions & Advisory Tim Hyland outlines how this space has grown over recent years, where the opportunity sits today, and what developers are weighing up as they move into it.
That divergence is not confined to the retail vacant land market either. Developers are increasingly pivoting toward other commercial opportunities, particularly the fast growing data centre space, as land use options broaden beyond standard residential product.
This edition explores these and other dynamics in detail, unpacking the latest data and sentiment shifts shaping the Victorian greenfield market, corridor by corridor. We hope it gives a clear view of where demand is headed, what buyers are seeking, and how the industry is adjusting as conditions continue to shift.
F or more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au F or a detailed market analysis or a tailored report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au
What’s Inside Lead Indicators
05
Western Growth Corridor
14
Development Sites
06
Northern Growth Corridor
18
Why Data Centres are Reshaping Victoria’s Land Market
07
South East Growth Corridor
22
Vacant Land Market
08
Greater Geelong Corridor
26
Vacant Land Market Overview
09
Ballarat
30
Gross Lot Sales
10
Melbourne and Geelong Buyer Surveys
11
Bendigo
34
Growth Corridor Snapshot Q2 2026
12
Macedon & Mitchell
38
What Does a 350sqm Lot Cost?
13
Drouin & Warragul
42
Victorian Greenfield Market Outlook
46
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
4
A Data Driven, Holistic Approach to Property RPM’s Market Intelligence division provides in-depth analysis on current local and overseas economic and property market conditions. The team consists of economists, property experts, and GIS analysts that provide real-time market intelligence, and analytical and strategic advice. Our knowledge and expertise are an invaluable resource for RPM’s developer clients, empowering them to make intelligent, informed, and strategic decisions when evaluating residential developments and investment opportunities. Our data and analysis help clients maximise their marketing efforts and achieve sales targets on their estates. Each month we collect extensive data on approximately 350 estates in Victoria, 180 estates in Queensland and 180 in New South Wales, providing our clients with a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics. This also underpins the core strategic decision-making of our own business.
This rich data helps our team and clients to better understand:
Volume of lots sold
Distribution of lots of a particular size
Dollar per sqm rates
Distribution of price points
Stock release levels
Activity levels by market, product & developer
Volume of stock returned to market
Stock level fluctuations
We profile every lot including lot size, price, orientation, sqm rate and title status, monitoring through to final sale.
Your dedicated Market Intelligence team: RPM is also the founding data partner of Terralytics, an independent, next-generation data intelligence platform built for developers, builders, planners, government bodies and industry partners across Australia’s greenfield land markets. For more information, please visit: terralytics.com.au
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Michael Staedler
General Manager Market Intelligence
Andrew Raponi
Senior Research Manager Market Intelligence
Laurence Rao
Research Manager - VIC Market Intelligence
5
Lead Indicators Cash Rate
4.35%
AUS Unemployment Rate Aug 2026
4.40%
VIC Annual Wage Growth Index
Jun 2026
3.20%
Jun 2026
Melb. Median House Price
$952,500
Jun 2026
Held at 4.35% in August, the third straight meeting on hold, as inflation ticks down slightly.
The unemployment rate held at 4.40% in June 2026, continuing to sit within the 4.1–4.5% band it’s tracked for the past year.
Victorian wage growth eased to 3.20% over the year to June 2026, down from 3.5% a year earlier.
Melbourne’s median house price rose to $952,500 in June 2026, up 1% over the quarter and 2.5% over the year.
Quarterly GDP
Savings Ratio
VIC Avg. Weekly Earnings
VIC State Final Demand
0.30
Mar 2026
6.20%
Mar 2026
$2,077
Nov 2025
0.90%
Mar 2026
Growth slowed to 0.30% in the March 2026 quarter, weighed down by soft household and public spending.
The household savings ratio fell to 6.20% in the March 2026 quarter, down from 7.0% in Q4 2025.
Average weekly earnings reached $2,077, up 4.3% annually. Outpacing state CPI growth of 3.2%.
Victorian state final demand rose 0.90% in the March 2026 quarter, taking annual growth to a robust 3.5%.
AUS Annual Inflation
Exchange Rate AUD/USD
VIC Unemployment
VIC Employment Participation
3.80%
May 2026
Annual inflation eased to 3.80% in the 12 months to May 2026, down from 4.0% previously.
$0.70
Jun 2026
The AUD firmed to $0.70 in the June 2026 quarter, trading between a low of $0.68 and a high of $0.72 before settling back at $0.70.
5.00%
Jun 2026
Victorian unemployment rose to 5.00% in June 2026, its highest level since the Covid period.
67%
Jun 2026
Victoria’s employment participation rate held at 67% in June 2026, unchanged over the year and in line with the national rate. All information is as of the latest available datasets.
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Development Sites
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
7
Why Data Centres are Reshaping Victoria’s Land Market Tim Hyland National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au
Data centres are everywhere in the property press at the moment, and for good reason. Some of the largest proposals are landing in greenfield growth corridors, others are repurposing established industrial land, and the range of players chasing sites has never been broader. AirTrunk has acquired a 67 hectare site at 45 Donnybrook Road in Mickleham, with plans for a seven building hyperscale campus with an end value of around $4 billion. Elsewhere in Melbourne’s north, multiple parcels within the Craigieburn North Employment Area have changed hands to support data centre development. Zerra DC has proposed a six storey AI and cloud campus on part of the former Ford manufacturing site at Campbellfield, and NEXTDC has taken up 169 hectares near Lovely Banks outside Geelong, close to a key transmission substation. On Melbourne’s south eastern fringe, Galileo Group has lodged what is understood to be the City of Casey’s first data centre planning application,
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Digital infrastructure has become one of the most talked about asset classes in Australian property, and Victoria is at the centre of the action.
a $1.12 billion campus at Clyde North. Different locations, different developers, same underlying signal: Victoria has become a genuine focus for capital chasing digital infrastructure, not just from within Australia but from across the APAC region and beyond. Two factors are driving this. The first is land. Victoria still offers industrial zoned parcels with the scale, access, and proximity to Melbourne that hyperscale operators need, at a time when comparable sites in Sydney are scarcer and more expensive. The second, and increasingly the more decisive factor, is power. Data centre site selection now starts with grid capacity, not zoning. Most of the headline activity sits at the hyperscale end, chasing large parcels with direct access to the transmission network and the ability to secure hundreds of megawatts. But that is only part of the story. There is equally strong demand building for smaller infill sites powered off the distribution network rather than transmission infrastructure, closer to Melbourne rather than out on the fringe.
The attention this sector is attracting has created a problem of its own. Every landowner with an industrial zoned parcel now believes their site is data centre ready, whether it sits on the transmission network or the distribution network, and most are not. Power availability, connection lead times, water access, and planning pathway all need to align. RPM Transactions & Advisory works directly with landowners, developers, and infrastructure providers to identify the ideal sites for such uses, mapping grid capacity and network infrastructure against planning controls to separate real opportunities from speculative ones, across large transmission connected parcels and smaller distribution powered infill sites alike. One of the more interesting shifts we’re seeing, and a theme we presented on at this year’s NGAA National Congress, is how commercial developers are now responding to data centres landing nearby. Rather than viewing a hyperscale campus as competition for land, an increasing number are treating it as an anchor. High tech business parks, logistics, and commercial development sites are being sought
adjacent to confirmed data centres, on the basis that the presence of a major digital infrastructure tenant lifts the profile and long term value of the surrounding precinct. RPM Transactions & Advisory is working with several developers pursuing exactly this play, helping them secure adjacent land ahead of that value being fully priced in. It’s the same principle that has played out around established technology precincts overseas, and Victoria’s growth corridors are now producing local examples of the same pattern.
For more information on development site opportunities, contact Tim Hyland tim@rpmgrp.com.au
Vacant Land Market
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
9
Vacant Land Market Overview Rod Anderson National Managing Director Communities rod@rpmgrp.com.au
Purchaser sentiment remained subdued through Q2 2026. Gross lot sales across growth areas totalled 4,048, down 11% on the quarter and 24% on the same period last year. The Western and Northern corridors carried most of this decline, down 24% and 15% respectively. The South East barely moved, and the two regional corridors (Macedon & Mitchell and Drouin & Warragul) both grew. Supply moved more sharply than sales this quarter. In the west, developers pulled back hard. The Western’s releases fell faster than sales did, yet stock still took a record 236 days to sell, the slowest result in the corridor’s history. The regions moved in the opposite direction. Ballarat and Drouin & Warragul kept releasing stock ahead of demand, with Ballarat’s releases up 178% against just a 4% sales decline. Both corridors now carry the heaviest oversupply risk in this report. Regional pricing now spans a wide range relative to Melbourne. Geelong crossed $400,000 this quarter.
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Melbourne’s corridors diverged sharply over Q2, with absorption slowing in the west, supply surging in the regions, and pricing swinging in the smallest markets.
Melbourne’s own median sits just below it at $385,550, up only 0.1%. Ballarat trails well behind both at $280,000. Titled stock is part of the broader backdrop: metro growth areas generally carry a lower share of titled lots than regional corridors, and in Geelong and Ballarat the volume of titled stock continues to push back new stage releases. Melbourne’s median lot size held steady at 350sqm. The widest gap in this report sits within Melbourne, not regional. The South East cleared titled stock in 147 days this quarter, while Western took 236, the slowest read in the corridor’s history. Combined, the citywide average rose to 174 days, up 6% on the quarter and down 2% on a year ago. That single figure masks how differently the two ends of Melbourne are performing. That gap in absorption speed is part of why smaller formats keep gaining share. Townhomes, small lot code product and lots between 300 and 450sqm in regional areas continued to account for a growing share of transactions, as affordability pushed buyers toward faster, cheaper configurations.
Q2 2026 Lots Sold (All Regions)
Melbourne Median Lot Price
-11% over quarter
+0.1% over quarter
4,048
-24% annually
Melbourne Trading Days of Lots Sold
174
+6% over quarter
-2% annually
$385,550
+2.8% annually
Melbourne Median Lot Size
350sqm 0% over quarter
0% annually
%
11% 14% 12%
10
12% 11%
Gross Lot Sales 11%
34% 39%
Lot Sales by Price Bracket in Melbourne 5%
10%
June Quarter 2026
15%
20%
25%
June Quarter 2025
42% 30%
35%
40%
% Contribution to Total Gross Lot Sales Q2 2026
45%
June Quarter 2024
3%
33% $425K >
Drouin & Warragul
25%
2%
26%
Macedon & Mitchell
3%
10% $401K-$425K
11%
5%
11%
Ballarat
14%
13%
12%
Geelong
12% $351K-$375K
South East
Bendigo
9%
$376K-$400K
22%
11% 11%
25% 34%
Western
<=$350K
26% Northern
39% 42% 0%
5%
10%
June Quarter 2026
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
15%
20%
25%
June Quarter 2025
30%
35%
June Quarter 2024
40%
45%
Percentages rounded to the nearest whole number
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
11
Melbourne and Geelong Buyer Surveys Owner Occupier Type First Home Second Home Third Home Fourth Home Other
Purchase Type 59% 24% 8% 5% 5%
Townhome House & Land Land Only
Household Type Group Household Single Couple Family
2% 17% 25% 56%
Australia India Sri Lanka Philippines
39% 36% 6% 4%
3% 8% 9% 27% 54%
>Four Three Two One
Owner Occupier vs. Investor
>$950k
7%
$900-950k
5%
$850-900k
2%
27%
$800-850k
8%
Investor
$750-800k
9%
$700-750k
15%
$650-700k
14%
$600-650k
18%
$550-600k
10%
$500-550k
5%
73%
$450-500k
1%
$400-450k
1%
Owner Occupier
<$400k
3%
No. of Visits to Estate Prior to Purchase
Data collected from approximately 267 RPM Buyer Surveys over Q2 2026
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
10% 20% 70%
Country of Origin
Period to Start Build After Settlement >12 Months 6-12 Months 3-6 Months Within 3 Months Immediately
Home & Land Budget
Size of Home Including Garage 14% 15% 23% 48%
>30 sqs 26-30 sqs 21-25 sqs 16-20 sqs <15 sqs
No. Storeys Considered 16% 19% 36% 25% 3%
Undecided Double Storey Single Storey
9% 17% 74%
12
Growth Corridor Snapshot Q2 2026 Northern Corridor
Western Corridor
Gross Lot Sales
New Lot Releases
Median Lot Price
-188 sales
-172 releases
No change
1,070
913
$368k
Median Size (sqm)
Gross Lot Sales
New Lot Releases
Median Lot Price
+14sqm
-327 sales
- 278 releases
+$4,900
338
Ballarat
619
$378k
350
No change
Bendigo
Greater Geelong
Gross Lot Sales
New Lot Releases
Median Lot Price
-10 sales
+112 releases
-$6,500
220
1,023
Median Size (sqm)
175
$280k
Median Size (sqm)
Gross Lot Sales
New Lot Releases
Median Lot Price
-38sqm
-2 sales
+71 releases
+$20,208
448
545
364
$400k
Median Size (sqm)
400
Macedon & Mitchell
+1sqm
Ballarat
South East Corridor Gross Lot Sales
873 +6 sales
New Lot Releases
496
-410 releases
Drouin & Warragul Median Lot Price
$429k -$13,000
Median Size (sqm)
350
No change
Bendigo
Gross Lot Sales
123
+13 sales
New Lot Releases
182
+89 releases
Western Corridor
Median Lot Price
$320k +$2,500
Median Size (sqm)
511
+10sqm
Geelong
Macedon & Mitchell
Gross Lot Sales
New Lot Releases
Median Lot Price
-12 sales
-41 releases
+$23,808
105
Northern Corridor
64
$289k
Median Size (sqm)
Gross Lot Sales
New Lot Releases
Median Lot Price
-5sqm
+6 sales
-28 releases
-$42,000
527
89
45
$330k
Median Size (sqm)
579 -32sqm
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics - as at Q2 2026. All differences are expressed as changes from the previous quarter. Price figures have been rounded to the nearest ‘000’.
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
South East Corridor
Drouin & Warragul
Wallan $325,000
13
Beveridge $331,500
What Does a 350sqm Lot Cost?
Mickleham $439,000
Key
Kalkallo $398,000
Low
High
Donnybrook $370,000 Sunbury $369,000 Diggers Rest $356,500
Regional Victoria Melton Sth $332,000
Warragul $277,000
Weir Views $330,000
Strathtulloh $368,000
Craigieburn $385,070 Greenvale $550,000
Wollert $440,000
Bulla $373,000
Bonnie Brook Fraser Rise $402,000 $403,000 Rockbank $368,000 Tarneit $399,950
Deanside $420,000 Truganina $402,000
Melbourne CBD
Wyndham Vale $398,000 Mambourin $325,000
Officer $486,000
Lara $354,900
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 || © ©RPM RPMGROUP GROUP
Armstrong Creek $385,000
Pakenham $414,000
Clyde Nth $455,000
Fyansford $445,000
Charlemont $389,000
Werribee $387,000
Clifton Springs $475,000
Nar Nar Goon Nth $399,000 Nar Nar Goon $400,000
Clyde $433,000
Note: Locations are approximate only Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
Western Growth Corridor
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
15
Western Growth Corridor - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q2 2026
1,023
-24% vs. Q1 2026
The Western growth corridor recorded 1,023 gross lot sales in Q2 2026, down 24% from Q1’s 1,350. Family buyer participation and steady underlying enquiry held firm, but trading days stretched to 236 days over the quarter, the highest reading in recent years. That pairing of fewer sales with much slower absorption is more significant than the volume drop alone. Established estates with stronger amenities kept outperforming newer releases. Titled stock shaped activity, with buyers favouring immediate build readiness and shorter delivery timelines. Builder promotions across Wyndham’s northern precincts helped offset softer demand but couldn’t prevent the slowdown.
Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales
Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)
2,500
250
2,000
200
1,500
150
1,000
100
500
50
0
0
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Gross Lot Sales
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Average Trading Days
Ave. Sales (10 Years)
Average Trading Days
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
1,000 135 800 600
125
Western Growth Corridor - Vacant Land Stock 400
New Lots Released - Q2 2026
619
16
130
200
120
0
115
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Number ofQtr. Lots Added to Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26
-31% vs. Q1 2026
New lot releases fell 31% in Q2 2026, to 619 lots across Wyndham and Melton, a sharper cut than the 24% drop in sales. Developers pulled back on supply harder than buyers pulled back on demand, metering stock into a slower clearing market. Active estate count fell to 126, the fewest in over two years, while stock returns held at 179 lots. Fewer estates would normally support pricing, but with trading days at a multi year high, the real question is whether this is disciplined consolidation or weaker projects being squeezed out first.
New Lot Releases
Stock Returned to Market
Active Estates
Active Estates
2,000
155
1,800
150
1,600
145
1,400
140
1,200
135
1,000 130
800
125
600
120
400 200
115
0
110
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 New Lot Releases
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Stock Returned to Market
Active Estates
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
$340,000 320
$330,000 $320,000
17
310
Western Growth Corridor - Lot Price and Size $310,000
300
$300,000 $290,000
Lot Price - Q2 2026
$377,750
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size
+1.3% vs. Q1 2026
290
Median Lot Size
Median Lot Price
$390,000
360
$380,000
Median lot pricing lifted 1.3% in Q2 2026, from $372,850 to $377,750, while the median lot size held steady at 350sqm, a resilient result given how much slower stock moved. At $377,750 for 350sqm, the Western corridor remains the strongest value per sqm of any major Melbourne growth corridor. That gap likely explains why pricing held up even as trading days blew out. Buyers are still showing up, just taking longer to commit. The bigger swing factor for the second half of 2026 is absorption. Stretched trading days will test the corridor’s value advantage regardless of how tight titled stock gets.
350
$370,000 340 $360,000 330
$350,000 $340,000
320
$330,000
310
$320,000 300 $310,000 290
$300,000 $290,000
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Median Lot Size
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Median Lot Price
280
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
Northern Growth Corridor
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
19
Northern Growth Corridor - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q2 2026
1,070
-15% vs. Q1 2026
The Northern growth corridor recorded 1,070 gross lot sales in Q2 2026, down 15% on Q1’s 1,258. Hume anchored performance, while Whittlesea and Mitchell delivered stable monthly sales on steady entry-level demand. Trading days lengthened to 138 days as estates worked through a smaller pipeline of titled stock, a far smaller deterioration than the Western’s blowout to 236 days. The North’s masterplanned estates appear more resilient to the broader slowdown than newer stock elsewhere. House and land packages remain the North’s point of difference, keeping momentum going as other corridors lean harder on titled stock to move volume.
Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales
Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)
1,800
200
1,600
180 160
1,400
140
1,200
120
1,000
100 800
80
600
60
400
40
200
20
0
0
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Gross Lot Sales
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Average Trading Days
Ave. Sales (10 Years)
Average Trading Days Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
800 80 600
20
60 400
40
Northern Growth Corridor - Vacant Land Stock 200
0
New Lots Released - Q2 2026
913
20
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Number ofQtr. Lots Added to Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26
-16% vs. Q1 2026
New supply pulled back again in Q2 2026, with 913 lots released, down 16% on Q1’s 1,085, broadly in step with the 15% sales fall, unlike the Western where releases were cut much harder than demand. Releases remained concentrated across Hume and Mitchell, with no significant new estate launches. Stock returns lifted slightly to 126 lots, still historically low. The estate count has now fallen 28% since its September 2023 peak of 127, down to 91, the steepest multi-year consolidation of any corridor in this report. With releases tracking roughly in step with sales, the North looks the most balanced of Melbourne’s three metro corridors this quarter.
New Lot Releases
Stock Returned to Market
0
Active Estates
Active Estates 140
1,600 1,400
120
1,200
100
1,000 80 800 60 600 40
400
20
200 0
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 New Lot Releases
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Stock Returned to Market
0
Active Estates Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
$370,000 310 $360,000
300 290
$350,000
Northern Growth Corridor - Lot Price and Size
280
$340,000
$330,000
Lot Price - Q2 2026
$368,000
270
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size
No change vs. Q1 2026
Median lot pricing held flat in Q2 2026 at $368,000, unchanged from Q1. Median lot size lifted to 338sqm, up from 324.5sqm, meaning the per sqm rate eased by roughly 4% even as the headline price held. Buyers are effectively getting more land for the same money. At $368,000 for 338sqm, the North’s per sqm rate has narrowed to within 1% of the Western, the smallest gap between the two in over two years, down from a premium above 6% last quarter. Scale and maturity, builder networks, and a forward sales pipeline continue to justify what premium remains.
260
Median Lot Size
Median Lot Price
$385,000
360
$380,000
350
$375,000
340
$370,000
330
$365,000
320
$360,000
310
$355,000
300
$350,000
290
$345,000
280
$340,000
270
$335,000
260
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Median Lot Size
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
21
Median Lot Price
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
South East Growth Corridor
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
23
South East Growth Corridor - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q2 2026
873
+1% vs. Q1 2026
The South East corridor recorded 873 gross lot sales in Q2 2026, flat on Q1’s 867, the steadiest outcome of any Melbourne metro corridor against double-digit falls in the Western and Northern corridors. Casey again led the region, with Cardinia attracting continued interest across the more affordable eastern estates. Officer and Cranbourne carried the bulk of activity, titled product clearing in 147 days. Local owner-occupiers, not investors, are still doing almost all of the buying here. The South East retained a consistent upgrader cohort, less exposed to the challenging lending environment, underpinning a reliable baseline of sales through Q2.
Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales
Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)
200
1,400
180
1,200
160 1,000
140 120
800
100 600
80 60
400
40 200
0
20
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Gross Lot Sales
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Average Trading Days
Ave. Sales (10 Years)
Average Trading Days
0
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
500
50
400
40
300
30
South East Growth Corridor - Vacant Land Stock New Lots Released - Q2 2026
496
200
20
100
10
0
0
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Number ofQtr. Lots Added to Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26
-45% vs. Q1 2026
New Lot Releases
Stock Returned to Market
24
Active Estates
Active Estates
1,200
86 84
New lot releases collapsed 45% in Q2 2026, to 496 lots from 906 in Q1, while sales barely moved, making supply the driver this quarter rather than demand. Casey again accounted for the bulk of releases, as developers pulled back into a softer broader market. Stock returns lifted marginally to 123 lots, within normal seasonal ranges. Estate numbers kept shrinking, down to 73. Unlike Ballarat’s supply surge, the South East’s consolidation and its release pullback are moving in the same direction, a corridor tightening rather than pulling apart. High amenity estates continued to outperform across Casey and Cardinia.
1,000
82 80
800
78 600
76 74
400
72 70
200
68 0
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 New Lot Releases
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Stock Returned to Market
Active Estates
66
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
$430,000 360 $420,000
25
350 $410,000
340
South East Growth Corridor - Lot Price and Size $400,000
$390,000
Lot Price - Q2 2026
$429,000
330
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size
-2.9% vs. Q1 2026
Median lot pricing eased 2.9% in Q2 2026, slipping from $442,000 to $429,000, an unusual move given tightening releases alongside flat demand would normally support price rather than soften it. Median lot size held steady at 350sqm, so this isn’t a mix effect. The price move wasn’t uniform. Berwick South, Cranbourne East and Officer South held firmer on value than the headline figure suggests, a compositional shift as much as a market one. Releases down sharply and demand steady points to tighter conditions ahead, but this quarter’s price softness doesn’t yet fit that story, worth tracking into Q3.
Median Lot Size
Median Lot Price
$445,000
380
$440,000
375
$435,000
370
$430,000
365
$425,000
360
$420,000
355
$415,000
350
$410,000
345
$405,000
340
$400,000
335
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Median Lot Size
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
320
Median Lot Price
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
Greater Geelong Corridor
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
27
Greater Geelong - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q2 2026
545
No change vs. Q1 2026
Greater Geelong recorded 545 gross lot sales in Q2 2026, broadly in line with Q1’s 547. Price stood out more than volume this quarter. Armstrong Creek continued to anchor performance, supported by strong builder alignment and sustained demand for titled stock. Lara and adjacent precincts delivered consistent, affordability led volumes, while Armstrong Creek anchored the corridor’s stronger amenity end, consistent with prior quarters. Buyers remained sensitive to build timelines but responded well to clearer delivery pathways. Market sentiment stayed constructive through Q2, with improving construction lead times supporting upgrader driven enquiry across the corridor.
Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales
Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)
700
350
600
300
500
250
400
200
300
150
200
100
100
50
0
0
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Gross Lot Sales
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Average Trading Days
Ave. Sales (10 Years)
Average Trading Days
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
300
63 63
200
28
62
Greater Geelong - Vacant Land Stock
62
100
61 0
New Lots Released - Q2 2026
364
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec.Number Qtr. Mar.of Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Lots Added to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26
+24% vs. Q1 2026
New supply lifted 24% in Q2 2026, with 364 lots released compared to 293 in Q1, continuing a run of rising releases even as sales stayed flat. Unlike Ballarat’s or Baw Baw’s supply surge, the build in Geelong hasn’t yet dented buyer retention: stock returns eased to 47 lots, the lowest in over three years. Estate numbers ticked up to 70, one of the few corridors adding both new projects and new stock without retention strain. That combination of rising releases, rising estates, and a price crossing $400,000 is unusual. Normally more supply caps price growth rather than accelerating it.
New Lot Releases
Stock Returned to Market
61
Active Estates
Active Estates
600
71 70 69
500
68 67
400
66 65 64
300
63 62
200
61 60 59
100
58 57
0
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 New Lot Releases
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Stock Returned to Market
Active Estates
56
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
$370,000
370
$360,000
360
$350,000
350
Greater Geelong - Lot Price and Size $340,000
340
$330,000
330
$320,000
320
Lot Price - Q2 2026
$400,008
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size
+5.3% vs. Q1 2026
Median lot pricing lifted 5.3% in Q2 2026, from $379,800 to $400,008, a bigger quarterly move than any of Melbourne’s metro corridors, crossing $400,000 for the first time since late 2023. Median lot size edged up to 400sqm; this shift is too small to explain a move this size, pointing to price growth rather than a mix effect. Even after this jump, $400,008 still buys a bigger lot than the equivalent spend in Melbourne’s outer suburbs. This price gap likely explains why demand held up. With supply rising rather than tightening, this jump lacks a clean explanation as yet, warranting a second analysis with Q3 data.
Median Lot Size
Median Lot Price
$410,000
410
$400,000
400
$390,000
390
$380,000
380
$370,000
370
$360,000
360
$350,000
350
$340,000
340
$330,000
330
$320,000
320
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Median Lot Size
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
29
Median Lot Price
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
Ballarat
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
31
Ballarat - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q2 2026
220
-4% vs. Q1 2026
Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales
Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)
Average Trading Days
300
600
Ballarat recorded 220 gross lot sales in Q2 2026, a 4% decline on Q1’s 230, a far smaller move than the volume swings seen across Melbourne’s metro corridors. Sales remained concentrated in the western growth precinct, continuing a trend seen through 2024–25, with steady contributions from the southern corridor.
250
500
200
400
Buyer enquiry held up, supported by builder incentives and continued clearing of titled stock. Trading days lengthened to 442 days, though underlying demand remained intact, with first home buyers and upgraders driving most activity.
150
300
100
200
50
100
0
0
Borrowing conditions and construction lead times shaped sentiment, with no material deterioration in confidence despite the pullback.
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Gross Lot Sales
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Ave. Sales (10 Years)
Average Trading Days
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
200 48 150
47 46
100
Ballarat - Vacant Land Stock
45
50
0
New Lots Released - Q2 2026
175
32
44
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec.Number Qtr. Mar.of Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Lots Added to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26
+178% vs. Q1 2026
New lot releases lifted sharply in Q2 2026, with 175 lots coming to market compared to just 63 in Q1, a 178% increase and the sharpest supply increase of any corridor. Stock returns rose in step, to 44 lots from 23. Active estates eased slightly to 46, a slow moving number next to a release count that jumped substantially in one quarter. Ballarat now carries the heaviest new supply pipeline of any corridor. If buyer activity doesn’t pick up commensurately in the second half of 2026, this is where discounting pressure is most likely to show up first.
New Lot Releases
Stock Returned to Market
43
Active Estates
Active Estates 53
350
52
300
51 250
50 49
200
48 150
47 46
100
45 50
0
44
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 New Lot Releases
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Stock Returned to Market
Active Estates
43
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
$200,000
440
$150,000
420
$100,000
400
$50,000
380
$0
360
Ballarat - Lot Price and Size Lot Price - Q2 2026
$280,000
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size
-2.3% vs. Q1 2026
Median lot pricing eased 2.3% in Q2 2026, slipping from $286,500 to $280,000. The median lot size contracted to 448sqm, down from 486sqm, suggesting stock shifted back toward smaller, more typical lot sizes after last quarter’s unusually large-format skew. Even after the pullback, $280,000 keeps Ballarat well below anything comparable within an hour of Melbourne, a gap that keeps pulling in buyers regardless of the median’s quarterly move. The correction supports the view that the prior spike was mix driven rather than a shift in values. A more typical mix should keep pricing range bound through the second half of the year.
Median Lot Size
Median Lot Price 500
$350,000
490
$300,000
480
$250,000
470 $200,000 460 $150,000 450 $100,000
440
$50,000
$0
430
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Median Lot Size
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
33
Median Lot Price
420
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
Bendigo
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
35
Bendigo - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q2 2026
105
-10% vs. Q1 2026
Bendigo recorded 105 gross lot sales in Q2 2026, a 10% decline on Q1’s 117, though still 4% above Q2 2025’s 101 lots. Activity was again led by the northern corridor, while southern and western precincts operated at subdued but stable levels. Buyer enquiry remained selective, favouring well priced titled stock with clear construction pathways. Trading days eased to 234 days, down from 264 in Q1 2026, pointing to quicker absorption. The headline decline says less about actual demand than the price swings do. On affordability alone the corridor keeps drawing first home buyers and tree changers regardless of the quarterly sales count.
Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales
Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)
180
400
160
350
140
300
120
250
100 200 80 150
60
100
40 20
50
0
0
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Gross Lot Sales
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Average Trading Days
Ave. Sales (10 Years)
Average Trading Days
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
80 25 60
20 15
40
Bendigo - Vacant Land Stock
10
20
0
New Lots Released - Q2 2026
64
5
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec.Number Qtr. Mar.of Qtr. Jun.Added Qtr. Sep. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Lots to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26
-39% vs. Q1 2026
New lot releases eased 39% in Q2 2026, with 64 lots coming to market compared to 105 in Q1. The pullback follows a run of elevated releases through late 2025 and Q1 2026, with developers now metering supply into a softer sales quarter. Stock returns lifted to 20 lots, up from just 2 in Q1, though still low historically. Bendigo keeps adding estates, up to 47, even as Melbourne’s metro corridors consolidate, suggesting developers are backing Bendigo’s long-term demand even while pulling back closer to the city. Eased releases, a lift in stock returns, and an expanding estate base kept supply manageable, with no meaningful overhang despite the softer sales environment.
New Lot Releases
Stock Returned to Market
0
Active Estates
Active Estates 50
160
45
140
40 120 35 100
30
80
25 20
60
15 40 10 20 0
5
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 New Lot Releases
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
36
Stock Returned to Market
Active Estates
0
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
400 $270,000 300 $260,000
200
Bendigo - Lot Price and Size $250,000
$240,000
Lot Price - Q2 2026
$288,808
100
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size
+9% vs. Q1 2026
Median lot pricing jumped 9% in Q2 2026, rising from $265,000 to $288,808. The median lot size held broadly steady at 527sqm, down slightly from 532sqm, so the lift reflects true value movement rather than a shift toward larger lots. Price had actually been steady for three straight quarters, sitting in a tight $262,000 to $265,000 band from mid 2025 through Q1, so this jump breaks from stability. Bendigo has moved this sharply before (when the median fell 11.4% in June 2025), so a move this size should be confirmed next quarter rather than treated as a trend.
37
0
Median Lot Size
Median Lot Price 700
$300,000
600
$290,000
500
$280,000
400 $270,000 300 $260,000
200
$250,000
$240,000
100
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Median Lot Size
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Median Lot Price
0
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
Macedon & Mitchell
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
39
Macedon & Mitchell - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q2 2026
89
+7% vs. Q1 2026
Macedon & Mitchell recorded 89 gross lot sales in Q2 2026, a 7% lift on Q1’s 83, behind only Drouin & Warragul’s 12% gain. Kilmore and Wallan precincts supported the improvement. Sales held up well given the broader softening across most corridors, with buyer interest anchored by lifestyle appeal and affordability compared to Melbourne’s outer areas. Trading days lengthened to 494, reflecting the corridor’s small buyer pool rather than a shift in absorption. The stronger sales result came from a small number of established stages, not a broad based lift.
Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales
Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)
120
600
100
500
80
400
60
300
40
200
20
100
0
0
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Gross Lot Sales
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Average Trading Days
Ave. Sales (10 Years)
Average Trading Days
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
80 35 60
35 34
40
Macedon & Mitchell - Vacant Land Stock
34
20
0
New Lots Released - Q2 2026
45
33
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec.Number Qtr. Mar.of Qtr. Jun.Added Qtr. Sep. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Lots to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26
-38% vs. Q1 2026
New lot releases eased 38% in Q2 2026, with 45 lots coming to market compared to 73 in Q1. Stock returns fell sharply to just 9 lots, down from 48 in Q1, a reversal that supports the view flagged last quarter, that the Q1 jump reflected settlement timing rather than a deterioration in buyer commitment. Estate numbers barely moved, at 37, a stability that says more about a naturally contained development footprint than any deliberate supply discipline. Total available stock eased as the pullback in returns outweighed the lighter release volumes, removing a source of near term uncertainty.
New Lot Releases
Stock Returned to Market
33
Active Estates
Active Estates 39
140
38
120
37 100
36
80
35
60
34 33
40
32 20
0
31
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 New Lot Releases
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
40
Stock Returned to Market
Active Estates
30
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
$380,000
640
$370,000
620
$360,000
41
600
Macedon & Mitchell - Lot Price and Size $350,000
580
$340,000 $330,000
Lot Price & Size - Q2 2026
$330,000
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size
-11.3% vs. Q1 2026
Median lot pricing fell 11.3% in Q2 2026, easing from $372,000 to $330,000. The median lot size also contracted to 579sqm, down from 611sqm, pointing to a shift in the mix of stock toward smaller, more affordable lots. The pullback interrupts a period of relative price stability. Macedon & Mitchell continues to offer a distinctive value propositions; larger lots at prices that remain accessible relative to the region’s lifestyle premium. Near term pricing will depend on which way lot sizes move next quarter, given the corridor’s modest and uneven release volumes.
Median Lot Size
Median Lot Price
$450,000
700
$400,000
680
$350,000
660
$300,000
640
$250,000
620
$200,000
600
$150,000
580
$100,000
560
$50,000
540
$0
520
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Median Lot Size
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
560
Median Lot Price
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
Drouin & Warragul
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
43
Drouin & Warragul - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q2 2026
123
+12% vs. Q1 2026
Drouin & Warragul recorded 123 gross lot sales in Q2 2026, a 12% lift on Q1’s 110, the strongest relative result of any corridor in this report, ahead of Macedon & Mitchell’s 7% gain. Activity remains well above early 2024 levels, supported by affordability relative to Melbourne’s fringe growth areas. Warragul continued to carry the corridor, with Drouin’s contribution comparatively modest, an imbalance consistent enough to call it the corridor’s settled pattern. Relocation demand out of Melbourne remains the underlying driver, a structural tailwind that keeps the corridor from swinging as hard as its smaller sales base might suggest.
Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales
Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)
400
140
350
120
300
100
250 80 200 60 150 40
100
20
0
50
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Gross Lot Sales
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Average Trading Days
Ave. Sales (10 Years)
Average Trading Days
0
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
20 19
100
44
18
Drouin & Warragul - Vacant Land Stock
17
50
0
New Lots Released - Q2 2026
182
16
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar.Number Qtr. Jun.of Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Lots Added to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26
+96% vs. Q1 2026
New Lot Releases
Stock Returned to Market
15
Active Estates
Active Estates
250
24 23
New lot releases nearly doubled in Q2 2026, with 182 lots coming to market compared to 93 in Q1, a 96% increase and a marked shift from the measured pace of recent quarters. Stock returns held low at 9 lots, matching the last three quarters (9, 10, 9), pointing to minimal cancellations. Active estates lifted to 23, continuing recovery from a low of 17 in the second half of 2024, as paused projects re-enter the pipeline. Baw Baw is now the second corridor after Ballarat where releases have surged well ahead of demand, 182 lots against sales growth of 12%.
200
22 21
150
20 19
100
18 17
50
16 0
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 New Lot Releases
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Stock Returned to Market
Active Estates
15
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
$320,000
400
$310,000
300
$300,000
45
200
Drouin & Warragul - Lot Price and Size $290,000
100
$280,000 $270,000
Lot Price - Q2 2026
$320,000
Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size
+0.8% vs. Q1 2026
Median lot pricing lifted 0.8% in Q2 2026, rising from $317,500 to $320,000. The median lot size increased to 511sqm, up from 501sqm, with Warragul’s larger lots continuing to shape the corridor’s size and pricing profile. Near term pricing is expected to remain stable, though the sharp lift in new supply (as in Ballarat) is the bigger variable to watch. A near doubling of released stock is more likely to test pricing than the modest sales uplift suggests.
Median Lot Size
Median Lot Price
$360,000
620
$350,000
600
$340,000
580
$330,000
560
$320,000
540
$310,000
520
$300,000
500
$290,000
480
$280,000
460
$270,000
440
Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 '26 Median Lot Size
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
0
Median Lot Price
Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics
46
Victorian Greenfield Market Outlook Michael Staedler General Manager Market Intelligence m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au
Three consecutive RBA rate rises through the first half of 2026 took the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35%, before the Board held steady at its June and August meetings. While unchanged, the RBA remains cautious around the short term as inflation remains a persistent issue at 3.8% through June, still above the RBA’s 2 to 3% target band. Borrowing capacity has been materially reduced, and household stress has only marginally eased. The Federal Budget changes have squeezed investors further: proposed CGT reforms have prompted banks to cut maximum investor loans by around 20%, with NAB forecasting capital city house prices to fall 2% over 2026. NAB’s Consumer Stress Index eased to 58.7 in Q2 from 59.1 in Q1, still above average, cost of living the dominant driver at 70.2.
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Uncertainty around rates, rising costs, and a change of premier: Victoria’s greenfield market heads into the second half of 2026 with more moving parts than usual.
Westpac-Melbourne Institute sentiment recovered to 83.9 in July from 80.6, though that’s still bottom 10% of the survey’s history. Business sentiment tells a similarly uneven story. NAB’s Quarterly Survey recorded a sharp fall across Q2, conditions down 5 points to 2, as firms cited the Middle East conflict and budget settings. Monthly data since has been more encouraging: confidence rose 9 points to -5 in June, a third straight gain. First-home buyers, the dominant demand cohort across the greenfield corridors, remain most exposed to further rate movement. Supply-side cost pressures have intensified rather than eased. Rider Levett Bucknall’s June update estimates the Middle East conflict has added 1.5% to 3.5% to project costs, with diesel, plastic pipe, bitumen and asphalt up 20% to 40% since February on Strait of Hormuz disruption.
The ABS recorded building materials up 3.8% over the year to June, the fastest pace in three years, and CBA forecasts construction price growth toward 8% by September, up to 12% if the conflict drags on. Victoria enters the second half of 2026 under new leadership. Ben Carroll was sworn in as premier on 28 July, replacing Jacinta Allan ahead of November’s election, and used his first day to announce a construction sector royal commission, adding policy uncertainty for an industry already navigating rate and cost pressures. Still, Melbourne’s greenfield market retains a genuine affordability edge over established housing and other eastern seaboard markets, and government incentives continue to support entry-level demand, a real strength to build on as conditions ease.
F or more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au O ur Market Intelligence Services create bespoke reports crafted to your specifications, translating rich data into in-depth analysis. For a bespoke report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au
47
Our Team Market Intelligence Michael Staedler
General Manager Market Intelligence m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au
Andrew Raponi
Senior Research Manager a.raponi@rpmgrp.com.au
Laurence Rao
Simon Brinkman
Rod Anderson
Peter Grant
Research Manager - VIC laurence@rpmgrp.com.au
Research Manager - QLD simon@rpmgrp.com.au
Executive, Sales and Marketing Leadership Paul McMahon
Luke Kelly
Chief Operating Officer paul@rpmgrp.com.au
National Managing Director Built Form luke@rpmgrp.com.au
National Managing Director Communities rod@rpmgrp.com.au
Imogene Schaefer
Michael Vilar
General Manager Marketing imogene@rpmgrp.com.au
General Manager Medium Density - VIC michaelv@rpmgrp.com.au
Greg Rankin
Joe Catanese
Tim Hyland
National Managing Director Transactions & Advisory joec@rpmgrp.com.au
VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP
National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au
General Manager New Business gregr@rpmgrp.com.au
National Managing Director Business Development peter@rpmgrp.com.au
Johnathon Driessen
General Manager Communities - VIC johnathon@rpmgrp.com.au
48
Unlocking Australia’s Property Landscape For detailed insights or custom reporting, contact the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au
rpmgrp.com.au VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q2 2026 | © RPM GROUP