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National Key Economic & Property Indicators Report Sept 2026
MARKET INTELLIGENCE NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
What’s Inside This report presents and analyses the most recent economic and building datasets available as of 7th September 2026. Economic Update and Insights
07
Property and Lending Update
32
Growth
08
Property Prices
33
Interest Rates & Inflation
11
Finance Activity
36
Consumption
16
Approvals
50
Savings
21
Commencements
53
Market Sentiment
22
Completions
56
Labour Markets
24
Outlook
57
Population
26
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
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Introduction This report provides a comprehensive assessment of Australia’s economic and property market conditions at a national level, using a structured set of leading indicators that collectively capture the direction of growth, inflation, household behaviour, labour market performance, credit conditions and residential supply. Rather than relying on any single metric, the analysis brings together a broad dataset spanning macroeconomic activity, monetary policy, consumer behaviour, lending dynamics and housing delivery. This approach allows for a more complete understanding of how the economy is functioning in real time, and more importantly, where it is likely to move next.
The indicators have been structured to tell a clear, sequential story: • Economic foundation (GDP, CPI, wages) - sets the macro backdrop. • Policy transmission (cash rate, mortgage rates) - impacts borrowing capacity. • Household response (spending, savings) - drives demand. • Labour market conditions - underpins income and confidence. • Population growth - determines underlying housing demand. • Credit flows - measures active market participation. • Supply pipeline - determines the market’s ability to respond. Together, these components provide a forwardlooking view of the Australian economy and residential market, highlighting not just where conditions stand today, but where imbalances, risks and opportunities are emerging.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Importantly, while this report is national in scope, it also considers variations across states and territories. Differences in economic performance, population growth, housing supply and affordability continue to drive divergent market conditions, reinforcing that national trends often mask meaningful regional dynamics.
Purpose of the Report The purpose of this report is to translate these indicators into clear, actionable insights for market participants. By analysing how each component interacts with the others, the report provides a grounded view on: • The sustainability of current economic growth
Ultimately, this report is designed to move beyond data description and instead provide a joined-up view of the market, helping inform decision-making across development, investment and policy.
F or more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au O ur Research Consultancy Services create bespoke reports crafted to your specifications, translating rich data into in-depth analysis. For a bespoke report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au
• The trajectory of interest rates and inflation • The strength and composition of housing demand • The capacity of the development pipeline to respond • The key risks and opportunities emerging into 2026
Disclaimer: As of publication, the economic outlook continues to evolve rapidly. Although reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this information, RPM Real Estate Group Pty Ltd take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained herein. It is recommended that all the information be verified if it is to be used for commercial purposes.
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Executive Summary Michael Staedler General Manager Market Intelligence m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au
Australia’s property market has moved from a two speed story into a broadening correction, driven by the sharpest reversal in monetary policy in years. The 2025 easing cycle had taken the cash rate to 3.60%. The RBA lifted it back to 4.35% by June, and markets now price a strong chance of a further hike in September. GDP has been volatile this year. Quarterly growth improved to 0.42% in June, but annual growth has eased for the second quarter running, from 2.61% in December to 2.14% in June. Real wages remain negative annually, though the gap narrowed sharply in June. For residential property, rates at cycle highs and stretched budgets remain the dominant constraint on borrowing capacity. June data still shows Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane leading annual growth while Sydney, Melbourne, and Hobart decline. Land remains the most polarised metric, up 54.5% in Perth against falls in Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
More recent Cotality data shows the downturn has broadened well beyond the two largest cities, with national values falling for five straight months to August and 93% of suburbs recording declines. Bank forecasters have moved with it. CBA now expects a 5% national fall in 2026, a 10% peak to trough decline by April 2027, and has extended that view to Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide. Lending rebounded in June but annual growth has decelerated sharply across every category, most notably investor lending, down from 25.0% to 7.9% year on year. Supply is mixed. Approvals rebounded in June, through townhome approvals turned negative annually for the first time in the recent series, while apartments of four or more storeys swung back to growth, driven almost entirely by Queensland. Commencements pulled back sharply in March, and completions remain broadly flat, with detached delivery contracting in most states.
Key Takeaways • Momentum remains uneven. Markets are pricing a strong chance of a further RBA hike in September.
• Cotality’s national index has fallen for five straight months, down 3.6% from its March peak, confirming the forecasts are tracking.
• Inflation has eased from March’s peak but remains above target. Another hike is a likely outcome.
• Investor lending still outpaces owner occupier lending, though the gap has narrowed.
• Banks have turned sharply more bearish on prices. CBA now forecasts a 5% national fall in 2026, in line with ANZ’s 4.3% fall in 2026 and 3.4% fall in 2027. Westpac IQ remains the outlier at flat.
• Completions remain constrained, particularly for detached housing. • The May 2026 Budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax add a new variable for investors.
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Current Market Conditions Economic conditions have been shaped by the sharpest monetary policy reversal in years. The 2025 easing cycle took the cash rate to 3.60%. The RBA lifted it back to 4.35% by June, and markets are pricing a strong chance of a further hike in September. Inflation peaked at 4.60% in March before easing to 3.50% by July, though the monthly CPI rebounded 1.0% in that month on fuel prices, and trimmed mean inflation remains elevated at 3.6%. Real wages are still negative annually, though the gap to inflation narrowed sharply in the June quarter.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Households
Housing Conditions
Population
• Real wages remain negative annually, though the gap to inflation narrowed to near-breakeven in the June quarter.
• The residential market has moved from divergence to outright correction over recent months.
• March quarters growth of 130,887 persons (+1.43% y/y) is the highest since the same time last year.
• Consumer sentiment collapsed to 80.1 in April, the sharpest fall in two years, and has since sat in a low 80-84 band through to July. • Household spending swung sharply: total spending grew just 0.9% in June, a fraction of May’s 5.8% rebound.
• Perth (+18.7% y/y houses) and Darwin (+16.7% y/y) continue to lead. Sydney (-3.3% y/y) and Hobart (-1.3% y/y) have moved into decline. • Land remains the most polarised metric. Perth up 54.5% annually against falls in Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra.
• The savings ratio stabilised at 6.5% in June, edging up slightly and remains well above the pre-COVID average.
• Cotality’s national index has fallen for five straight months to August, down 3.6% from its March peak, a broader downturn than the June quarter data alone suggests.
Labour Market
Lending
• Unemployment eased to 4.5% in July, oscillating in a narrow band since an April cycle high, well up from 2023’s lows.
• Investor lending grew 7.9% y/y by value in June, down sharply from 25.0% in March, still outpacing owner occupier growth of 5.8%.
• Business confidence has recorded three consecutive negative months, the longest run since 2021.
• Established dwelling lending turned negative annually (-4.1% y/y) for the first time this cycle. • Average loan sizes continue rising fastest for land, reflecting ongoing competition for limited supply.
Supply • Approvals rebounded to 53,726 in June, though townhome approvals turned negative annually for the first time in the recent series. • Commencements pulled back sharply in March (-16.7% q/q), with detached commencements slipping into decline. • Completions were essentially flat year on year in March, with detached completions declining in most states. Overall, momentum is increasingly two-speed. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide continue showing strength, while Sydney and Melbourne now show outright weakness on both price and lending. The path forward is narrowing, and bank forecasts (CBA, ANZ) point to further falls before a 2027 recovery.
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National Economic Lead Indicators Gross Domestic Product
0.42%
Consumer Price Index (qtr) Jun 2026
Cash Rate
4.35%
Jun 2026
3.94%
Jun 2026
6.50%
Jun 2026
0.56%
Jul 2026
0.35%
Jun 2026
4.46%
Jul 2026
+130,887
Jun 2026
53,726
Jun 2026
Residential Commencements Jul 2026
Population Change Jun 2026
137,155 Residential Approvals
Unemployment Rate
Wage Index Jun 2026
0.37%
Total New Loans
Rental Index
Household Savings Ratio
3 Year Fixed Rate
6.75%
Jun 2026
Consumer Price Index (yr)
Discount Variable Rate
6.80%
0.60%
New Dwelling Index
45,154
Mar 2026
Residential Completions Mar 2026
38,182
Mar 2026
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Economic Update & Insights
This section covers Australia’s macroeconomic environment, from growth and inflation through to interest rates and the labour market. It also looks at global trade uncertainty and the cost pressures shaping the outlook for the second half of 2026.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
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Gross Domestic Product GDP - % Change • Quarterly GDP growth improved to 0.42% in June, up from
0.29% in March but still below December 2025’s 0.91%.
• Annual growth eased to 2.14%, down for a second straight
quarter from 2.50% in March and 2.61% in December.
• The three year annual average sits at 1.85% against a
current read of 2.14%, a gap of 0.29 percentage points, down from 0.38 last quarter. The annual figure is tracking closer to the long run trend than it was in March.
• The cash rate has climbed to 4.35%, up 75 basis points
since December 2025. The rate headwind flagged as a live risk last quarter has now materially played out.
Quarterly Growth - Jun 2026
+0.42%
Annual Growth
+2.14%
GDP Quarter on Quarter Change
MAT GDP - Annual Change
6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Dec-25
Jun-26
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
0.00%
9
-2.00%
Gross State Product -4.00%
-6.00%
VIC • State economic growth remains subdued and uneven
GSP - Annual Result NSW
across Australia.
• In 2024/25, all states recorded modest growth, generally
between 1.0% and 2.2%, reflecting a broad slowdown from the stronger post-COVID rebound period.
• QLD is outperforming (+2.23%), supported by strong
population growth and investment.
• VIC and NSW are lagging, reflecting softer economic
conditions across the south-east.
• WA remains stable, underpinned by its resource
driven economy.
• Economic activity is concentrated, with NSW (31%) and
VIC (23%) accounting for over half of national output.
• State divergence is widening, driven by differences in
population growth, industry mix and housing conditions.
QLD
SA Jun-23
State Contribution 2024/25 WA
Jun-24
NT
ACT
TAS
Jun-25
TAS NT ACT 2% 1% 2%
6.0%
WA 17%
4.0%
VIC 23%
2.0%
SA 6%
0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%
QLD 19% VIC
NSW
QLD
SA
WA
NT
ACT
NSW 31%
TAS
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Research, Data & Insights
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
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State Final Demand • QLD has run above its three year average for four
consecutive quarters, averaging 0.93% against a 0.69% benchmark, and posted 1.13% in June, its strongest result since Q1 2025.
• SA has decelerated for four straight quarters, from
1.29% to 1.01% to 0.46% to 0.00% in June, pointing to an uninterrupted slowdown.
• TAS sits well below its three year average, at -0.80%
against a 0.28% benchmark, though it posted a modest +0.08% in June. The structural softness sits underneath what looks like random quarterly volatility.
• NSW and VIC are both still running above their three year
averages, at 0.88% and 0.71% against benchmarks of 0.43% and 0.45%, despite weak June results of 0.03% and negative 0.34%. The underlying trend is stronger than the latest quarter alone suggests.
• NT and ACT show no consistent direction over the past
year, though both posted a positive June (NT +1.36%, ACT +0.68%). With no multi quarter pattern behind either, these are better read as volatile than trending.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
State Final Demand
Jun-26
Mar-26
Jun-25
3 Year Qtr Ave
VIC
-0.34%
0.92%
0.31%
0.45%
NSW
0.03%
1.52%
0.79%
0.43%
QLD
1.13%
0.77%
0.46%
0.69%
SA
0.00%
0.46%
0.82%
0.67%
WA
1.04%
0.47%
0.43%
0.89%
NT
1.36%
-0.61%
-2.00%
0.50%
ACT
0.68%
-1.64%
0.85%
0.64%
TAS
0.08%
-0.89%
5.12%
0.28% Source: RPM Market Intelligence
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Interest Rates Interest Rates - 2020 to 2026 • The cash rate increased to 4.35% in May 2026, reversing
the 2025 easing cycle in full and returning to the prior cycle high last held in January 2025.
• It rose across the first three meetings of the year, lifting
from 3.60% in December 2025 to 4.35%, a total increase of 75 basis points. It held unchanged at the June and August meetings, though markets are pricing a further increase in the second half of the year.
• Variable rates have lifted to 6.80%, maintaining pressure on
household cash flow and borrowing capacity.
• Fixed rates have also repriced higher. The one to three year
fixed rate now sits at 6.19% and the three year fixed rate at 6.75%, both above their June 2024 levels of 6.00% and 6.55%. That points to expectations of a prolonged higher rate environment rather than a near term reversal.
Cash Rate
Discounted Variable Rate
3 Year Fixed Rate
1-3 Year Fixed Rate
8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00%
• Borrowing capacity remains constrained, limiting housing
demand and market activity. Policy settings are firmly restrictive, and the impact of the three rate rises through the first half of 2026 is still flowing through household budgets.
2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Dec-25
Jun-26
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
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Consumer Price Index Yearly % Change • Annual inflation eased to 3.5% in July 2026, down from
3.8% in June, though still above the RBA’s 2%-3% target band.
Australia
Melbourne
Sydney
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Jan-26
Feb-26 Mar-26
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
6.00%
• Trimmed mean inflation held steady at 3.6%, unchanged
from June, suggesting underlying price pressure hasn’t eased as much as the headline figure implies.
5.00%
• Monthly CPI rose 1.0% in July, reversing two months of
declines (-0.1% in June, -0.7% in May). The rebound was driven by automotive fuel, which jumped 7.5% in the month after three straight monthly falls, as higher global oil prices and the partial unwinding of the federal fuel excise relief flowed through.
• Hobart (4.5%) and Adelaide (4.4%) recorded the highest
annual inflation, while Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra (3.2% each) were the lowest among the capitals.
• Housing remains the largest contributor to annual inflation
at 5.0%, though that’s down from a 6.8% rise in June, as the base effect from expiring electricity rebates starts to wash out of the comparison.
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
Jul-25
Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25
Apr-26 May-26
Jun-26
Jul-26
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
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Wages vs Consumer Price Index Quarterly Change - Wage vs CPI Index • Wage growth eased to 3.20% annually, still
running behind quarterly CPI of 3.94%, leaving real wages negative by 0.74 percentage points nationally.
• The real wage gap narrowed sharply in the
June quarter. Wages grew 0.56% while CPI rose just 0.60%, almost breakeven, a big improvement on the March quarter, when CPI (1.38%) ran well ahead of wage growth (0.56%).
• Adelaide recorded the strongest wage growth
(3.65% annually), while Darwin recorded the weakest (2.84%).
• Hobart carries the largest real wage
gap of any capital, with wages up 2.93% against inflation of 4.70%, a shortfall of 1.77 percentage points. Melbourne has the smallest gap (0.47 percentage points), helped by the lowest inflation of any capital on this measure at 3.53%.
CPI Index
Annual Change - Wage vs CPI Index
Wage Index
CPI Index
National
National
Canberra
Canberra
Darwin
Darwin
Hobart
Hobart
Perth
Perth
Adelaide
Adelaide
Brisbane
Brisbane
Melbourne
Melbourne
Sydney
Sydney
0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
0.00%
Wage Index
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
• Overall, annual income growth remains behind
prices, but the sharp narrowing of the gap in the latest quarter suggests the squeeze on household purchasing power may be easing, even though the yearly picture is still negative.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
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New Dwelling Index New Dwelling Index • National new dwelling prices rose 5.67% in the year to July 2026, with monthly growth of 0.37%. • Hobart (10.8%) and Brisbane (8.7%) recorded the strongest annual growth to July, with Adelaide (8.3%) close behind, indicating the tightest supply constraints among the capitals. • Melbourne (3.9%) and Sydney (4.4%) recorded the weakest annual growth, sitting well below the national rate. • Adelaide was the only capital to record a monthly decline in July (-0.6%), a contrast to its otherwise strong annual figure and worth watching for whether it’s a pullback or a single-month wobble. • Hobart (+2.2%) and Darwin (+2.0%) led monthly growth in July, while the remaining capitals recorded more modest, steady gains. • Overall, new dwelling price growth remains broad based and positive through July, reinforcing ongoing cost pressure through the construction pipeline.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
New Dwelling Index
Monthly Change
12 Month Change
Sydney
0.70%
4.40%
Melbourne
0.20%
3.90%
Brisbane
0.30%
8.70%
Annual Change
Monthly Change
National Canberra Darwin Hobart
Adelaide
-0.60%
8.30%
Perth
0.50%
5.30%
Hobart
2.20%
10.80%
Darwin
2.00%
5.90%
Melbourne
Canberra
0.90%
5.20%
Sydney
National
0.37%
5.67%
Perth Adelaide Brisbane
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
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Rental Index Rental Index
Rental Index
• National rents rose 3.58% in the year to July
2026, with monthly growth of 0.35% in July.
• Darwin (6.0%) and Perth (5.6%) recorded
the strongest annual rental growth to July, followed by Brisbane (4.6%).
• Canberra (1.3%) and Melbourne (2.5%)
recorded the weakest annual growth, sitting well below the national rate.
• Every capital recorded a positive monthly
change in July, unlike the new dwelling index where Adelaide dipped. Perth (+0.9%) and Darwin (+0.8%) led monthly growth in July, while Canberra (+0.1%) was the softest.
• Overall, rental growth remains positive
across all eight capitals through July, with the strongest pressure concentrated in Perth and Darwin and the softest conditions in Canberra and Melbourne.
Annual Change
Monthly Change
12 Month Change
Sydney
0.30%
3.50%
National
Melbourne
0.30%
2.50%
Canberra
Brisbane Adelaide Perth
0.50% 0.40% 0.90%
4.60% 4.10% 5.60%
Hobart
0.30%
3.00%
Darwin
0.80%
6.00%
Canberra
0.10%
1.30%
National
0.35%
3.58%
Monthly Change
Darwin Hobart Perth Adelaide Brisbane Melbourne Sydney 0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
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Household Consumption Quarterly Change in Household Consumption Expenditure • Total household spending grew a modest +0.41% in June
quarter 2026, a slowdown from the stronger, more broad-based growth seen earlier in the year.
Cigarettes & Tobacco
• Big-ticket and discretionary categories led growth,
Discretionary Consumption
1.41%
Insurance & Other Financial Services
1.25%
particularly purchase of vehicles (+10.28%), cigarettes and tobacco (+4.87%), and insurance and other financial services (+1.25%).
• Services-related spending was mixed. Health (+0.53%) and
Purchase of Vehicles
10.28% 4.87%
Health
0.53%
Furnishings & Household Equipment
0.50%
Communications
0.47%
communications (+0.47%) grew steadily, while transport services fell sharply (-2.56%).
Education Services
0.42%
Total Private Consumption
0.41%
• Everyday essential categories were soft by comparison.
Hotels, Cafes & Restaurants
0.40%
Rent & Other Dwelling Services
0.37%
Food
0.33%
Recreation & Culture
0.30%
Clothing & Footwear
0.29%
Other Goods & Services
0.28%
Food rose just +0.33% and rent and other dwelling services +0.37%, both well behind the pace of the leading discretionary categories.
• Electricity, gas and other fuel recorded the sharpest
decline of any category, down -5.97%, reversing a +9.70% surge in the March quarter.
• Alcoholic beverages (-0.70%) and operation of vehicles
(-0.63%) also weakened, rounding out a quarter where volatile, big-ticket items swung the overall result more than everyday spending did.
Essential Consumption
-0.27%
Operation of Vehicles
-0.63%
Alcoholic Beverages
-0.70%
Transport Services Electricity, Gas & Other Fuel
-2.56% -5.97%
-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
17
Essential and Discretionary Consumption Quarterly Change in Essential and Discretionary Consumption • Essential and discretionary spending moved in opposite
directions in June 2026, a reversal of the usual pattern where essential spending is the steadier of the two.
• Essential spending fell -0.27%, well below its 3-year
average of +0.40%, and only the second quarterly contraction in almost three years.
• Discretionary spending rose +1.41%, comfortably above its
3-year average of +0.29% and a sharp turnaround from a -0.11% dip in March.
• The lift in discretionary spending was concentrated in the
same big-ticket items skewing the category breakdown (vehicle purchases and tobacco).
• Households appear to have leaned into discretionary
spending this quarter at the expense of essentials, though one quarter is not enough to call this a real shift in behaviour.
Essential Consumption
Discretionary Consumption
17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% -7%
Essential - Jun 2026
-0.27%
Discretionary - Jun 2026
+1.41%
-9% -11% -13% Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Dec-25
Jun-26
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
18
Monthly Household Spending Household Spending - Total • Total household spending rose just +0.9% through June, a
sharp step down from the +5.8% rebound in May, part of a pattern of large monthly swings (-5.8% in April, +5.8% in May, +0.9% in June).
• Annual growth strengthened to +6.9%, reflecting the scale
of the May rebound flowing through the yearly comparison.
• QLD and ACT (+1.9% each) led monthly growth in June,
while WA recorded the strongest annual result nationally (+10.1%), narrowly ahead of NT (+10.0%).
• SA (-0.5%) was the only state to record a monthly
contraction in June, a reversal from its strong +6.1% reading in May.
June’s result is a fraction of May’s rebound, reinforcing that the household spending recovery is still fragile.
Jun-26
May-26
Jun-25
12 Mth Ch.
NSW
0.4%
6.0%
-1.1%
5.6%
VIC
1.1%
6.0%
-1.9%
6.4%
QLD
1.9%
4.9%
-0.8%
7.1%
SA
-0.5%
6.1%
-3.1%
7.9%
WA
0.5%
6.9%
-3.3%
10.1%
TAS
0.2%
4.5%
-3.2%
9.5%
NT
3.2%
5.8%
2.4%
10.0%
ACT
1.9%
4.3%
-1.0%
5.7%
AUS
0.9%
5.8%
-1.6%
6.9%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
19
Monthly Household Spending Household Spending - Goods
Household Spending - Services
Jun-26
May-26
Jun-25
12 Mth Ch.
Jun-26
May-26
Jun-25
12 Mth Ch.
NSW
1.2%
6.4%
1.2%
4.9%
NSW
-0.5%
5.5%
-3.6%
6.4%
VIC
1.8%
6.4%
0.1%
6.1%
VIC
0.4%
5.6%
-4.4%
6.9%
QLD
2.8%
5.0%
1.7%
7.0%
QLD
0.8%
4.8%
-3.5%
7.2%
SA
0.8%
5.2%
-1.0%
7.7%
SA
-1.9%
7.0%
-5.2%
8.2%
WA
1.2%
5.8%
-1.8%
9.7%
WA
-0.3%
8.1%
-5.0%
10.5%
TAS
-0.5%
3.7%
-2.3%
8.4%
TAS
0.9%
5.3%
-4.1%
10.6%
NT
0.5%
5.6%
0.6%
9.9%
NT
5.2%
6.0%
3.8%
10.1%
ACT
2.9%
4.5%
0.9%
5.6%
ACT
1.0%
4.1%
-2.6%
5.7%
AUS
1.6%
5.9%
0.5%
6.5%
AUS
0.0%
5.7%
-3.9%
7.4%
• Goods spending rose +1.6% in June, easing sharply from the +5.9% rebound in May, with
• Services spending was flat nationally in June, a sharp pullback from the +5.7% rebound
• Goods spending is decelerating in step with the total figure, but its lead on an annual
• A flat result after a strong May rebound is the weakest monthly read of any category
ACT (+2.9%) and QLD (+2.8%) leading and TAS (-0.5%) the only state to contract. Annual growth remains the strongest of the four categories at +6.5%, led by NT (+9.9%). basis over the other three categories suggests underlying demand hasn’t disappeared, just the monthly momentum.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
in May, with NT (+5.2%) the standout, while SA (-1.9%) and WA (-0.3%) contracted. Annual growth was strongest in TAS (+10.6%) and WA (+10.5%).
this quarter, and with SA and WA both contracting, services look like the most exposed category if the slowdown continues.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
20
Monthly Household Spending Household Spending - Discretionary
Household Spending - Non-Discretionary
Jun-26
May-26
Jun-25
12 Mth Ch.
Jun-26
May-26
Jun-25
12 Mth Ch.
NSW
2.1%
6.7%
0.5%
5.7%
NSW
-2.9%
4.5%
-4.3%
5.4%
VIC
4.0%
7.0%
0.7%
7.4%
VIC
-3.7%
4.4%
-6.2%
4.7%
QLD
3.4%
6.3%
0.6%
7.3%
QLD
-0.9%
2.5%
-3.3%
6.7%
SA
1.4%
6.4%
-0.9%
8.4%
SA
-4.0%
5.4%
-7.0%
7.0%
WA
3.0%
7.3%
-0.8%
10.7%
WA
-3.5%
6.2%
-7.3%
9.1%
TAS
1.2%
5.5%
-1.1%
9.1%
TAS
-1.7%
2.7%
-7.1%
10.4%
NT
5.8%
7.8%
3.2%
13.2%
NT
-4.1%
0.6%
0.4%
1.3%
ACT
4.7%
4.3%
2.6%
6.0%
ACT
-2.9%
4.3%
-6.9%
5.1%
AUS
2.9%
6.7%
0.4%
7.3%
AUS
-2.8%
4.2%
-5.2%
6.1%
• Discretionary spending rose +2.9% in June, moderating from the +6.7% rebound in May
• Non discretionary spending fell -2.8% nationally in June, reversing the +4.2% rebound in
• Holding up better than goods, services or non-discretionary despite the broader
• The swing back, with every major state declining, is the sharpest reversal of the five
but staying positive in every single state led by NT (+5.8%) and ACT (+4.7%). Annual growth was strongest in NT (+13.2%), well ahead of WA (+10.7%).
pullback points to households protecting discretionary spending ahead of essentials this month, the opposite of the usual defensive pattern.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
May, with SA (-4.0%) and VIC (-3.7%) the steepest declines and every major state in contraction. TAS recorded the strongest annual growth (+10.4%) despite the pullback.
categories and the clearest sign May’s rebound didn’t hold nationally.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
21
Household Savings Ratio Household Savings Ratio • The savings ratio held at 6.5% in June 2026, edging up
slightly from 6.4% in March, and remaining well above the pre-COVID average of 5.5%.
25.0%
• The ratio has stabilised just below the December 2025
peak of 7.2% rather than continuing to fall.
20.0%
20.1%
• The broader recovery from the cycle low of 1.8% in
September 2023 reflects a sustained shift toward financial resilience, with households continuing to prioritise savings over discretionary spending.
15.0%
• With the cash rate at 4.35% following three consecutive
monthly increases through the first half of 2026, the elevated savings ratio looks set to persist rather than fall away, as higher borrowing costs and mortgage repayments continue to encourage precautionary saving.
10.0% 6.4%
Pre Covid Average (2015-2019) = 5.5% 5.0% 1.8% 0.0% Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
Jun-25
Dec-25
Jun-26
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
22
Consumer Sentiment Consumer Sentiment • Sentiment sat at 83.9 in July 2026, still well below the
neutral 100 mark, up from a low of 80.1 in April following the sharpest single-month fall in over a year.
• The April collapse of -11.4 points was the largest monthly
fall in the past two years, following renewed rate hikes and re-accelerating inflation earlier in the year.
• Sentiment has moved in a narrow band between 80.1 and
83.9 for four straight months since the collapse (May 83.0, June 80.6, July 83.9), suggesting the index has found a low plateau.
• The brief lift above 100 in November 2025 (103.8) has been
fully reversed. Current readings sit a few points above the weakest levels of the 2022 to 2023 downturn (around 78), but sentiment remains firmly in negative territory and highly sensitive to further rate moves.
120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0
Jul-26
May-26
Mar-26
Jan-26
Nov-25
Sep-25
Jul-25
May-25
Mar-25
Jan-25
Nov-24
Sep-24
Jul-24
May-24
Mar-24
Jan-24
Nov-23
Sep-23
Jul-23
May-23
Mar-23
Jan-23
Nov-22
Sep-22
Jul-22
May-22
Mar-22
Jan-22
Nov-21
Sep-21
Jul-21
70.0
Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
23
Business Sentiment Business Sentiment • Business confidence turned negative in April (-0.5) and has
stayed negative for three consecutive months through June (-0.5 in May, -0.3 in June), the longest negative stretch in the data since the series began in 2021, suggesting a shift in outlook, particularly across interest rate-sensitive sectors such as construction and retail.
30.0
25.0
• The December 2025 peak of +6.8 reflects the renewed
20.0
• This reverses the broader recent pattern. Confidence was
15.0
tightening cycle stripping away the optimism that had built through the second half of 2025. positive in 19 of the 25 months since mid-2024, with only brief single or two-month dips (November 2024, April to May 2025) before this year’s more sustained decline.
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jun-26
Apr-26
Feb-26
Dec-25
Oct-25
Aug-25
Jun-25
Apr-25
Feb-25
Dec-24
Oct-24
Aug-24
Jun-24
Apr-24
Feb-24
Dec-23
Oct-23
Aug-23
Jun-23
Apr-23
Feb-23
Dec-22
Oct-22
Aug-22
Jun-22
Apr-22
Feb-22
Dec-21
Oct-21
Aug-21
Jun-21
-5.0
Source: National Australia Bank Business Survey
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
24
National Labour Market Snapshot Monthly Change in Employment • Unemployment eased to 4.5% in July 2026, in line with the
cycle-high of 4.5% in April, and up from cycle lows of 3.5 to 3.6% in 2023. It’s been oscillating in a narrow 4.4 -4.5% band for four months.
Full Time
Part Time
Unemployment Rate %
Unemployment Rate 5.0%
150,000
• Employment fell -15,827 in July, but the composition was
mixed. Full-time employment rose (+16,333) while parttime fell sharply (-32,160), the opposite pattern to the part-time-led gains seen in the prior two months.
• Annual employment growth remains solidly positive at
+191,869, and the participation rate held at 66.9%, broadly in line with the 12-month average of 66.8%, indicating the labour market remains resilient by historical standards despite the recent softening.
4.5% 100,000
4.0% 3.5%
50,000
3.0% 2.5%
0
2.0% -50,000
1.5% 1.0%
-100,000
0.5% 0.0% Jul-26
Jun-26
May-26
Apr-26
Mar-26
Feb-26
Jan-26
Dec-25
Nov-25
Oct-25
Sep-25
Aug-25
Jul-25
Jun-25
May-25
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Apr-24
Mar-24
Feb-24
Jan-24
Dec-23
Nov-23
Oct-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
Jul-23
-150,000
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
25
State Labour Market Snapshot Unemployment Rate
Employment Growth
Jul-26
Jun-26
Jul-25
12 Mth Ave
NSW
4.2%
4.0%
4.0%
4.2%
VIC
5.1%
5.1%
4.6%
QLD
4.2%
4.3%
SA
4.1%
WA
Participation Rate
Jul-26
12 Month Ch.
Jul-26
Jun-26
Jul-25
12 Mth Ave
NSW
-5,460
68,442
NSW
66.2%
66.2%
65.8%
65.8%
4.7%
VIC
2,971
43,969
VIC
67.5%
67.5%
67.8%
67.6%
4.1%
4.2%
QLD
9,277
55,826
QLD
67.1%
67.0%
67.2%
67.0%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
SA
462
9,942
SA
67.1%
67.0%
67.2%
64.5%
4.4%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
WA
-23,857
12,562
WA
68.5%
68.7%
68.7%
68.7%
TAS
5.1%
4.9%
3.8%
4.6%
TAS
1,423
-1,624
TAS
60.8%
60.6%
61.3%
60.9%
NT
4.6%
5.0%
4.6%
4.6%
NT
-3,059
9
NT
72.7%
72.8%
72.7%
73.0%
ACT
3.6%
3.9%
4.3%
4.1%
ACT
-7,614
73
ACT
72.0%
72.1%
72.0%
72.0%
AUS
4.5%
4.4%
4.2%
4.3%
AUS
-15,827
191,869
AUS
66.9%
66.9%
66.9%
66.8%
• National unemployment sits at an average of 4.5% in July
2026, up from 4.2% a year earlier.
• National employment fell -15,827 in July, though annual
growth remains positive at +191,869.
• National participation is stable at 66.9%, broadly in line
with the 12-month average of 66.8%.
• Overall, labour supply remains stable, and the softening
in employment appears concentrated in specific states (notably WA).
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
26
National Population Snapshot Quarterly Change in Persons • Population growth remains elevated but is moderating.
Quarterly growth to kick of 2026 increased by 130,887 persons (+0.47%), up over its seasonal low December quarter but below the same quarter a year earlier.
• Net overseas migration (NOM) remains the key driver,
contributing 77% of growth in the March quarter (101,005 of 130,887).
• Natural increase eased to 22,025 in the December quarter
(its lowest reading since the series began) then rebounded to 29,882 in March, the highest quarterly reading since March 2022, and in line with March 2025 (29,559).
• Growth has now normalised close to pre COVID levels,
running only roughly 5% above the long run average.
Natural Increase
Net Overseas Migration
180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000
Mar-26
Dec-25
Sep-25
Jun-25
Mar-25
Dec-24
Sep-24
Jun-24
Mar-24
Dec-23
Sep-23
Jun-23
Mar-23
Dec-22
Sep-22
Jun-22
Mar-22
Dec-21
Sep-21
Jun-21
Mar-21
-40,000
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
27
State Population Snapshot Total Population
Overseas Migration
Mar-26
Qtr Ch.
Qtr Ch. %
Yr Ch.
Mar-26
Qtr Ch.
Qtr Ch. %
Yr Ch.
NSW
8,670,105
+34,905
0.40%
1.13%
NSW
28,865
+12,463
75.98%
-6.15%
VIC
7,154,221
+38,205
0.54%
1.55%
VIC
29,724
+14,083
90.04%
-8.88%
QLD
5,739,461
+26,135
0.46%
1.59%
QLD
18,259
+7,542
70.37%
-4.22%
SA
1,916,836
+6,056
0.32%
0.97%
SA
5,583
+2,467
79.17%
-19.00%
WA
3,096,222
+20,358
0.66%
2.12%
WA
14,376
+6,293
77.85%
0.79%
TAS
580,691
+1,606
0.28%
0.59%
TAS
1,086
+158
17.03%
22.30%
NT
268,899
+1,196
0.45%
1.50%
NT
1,035
+417
67.48%
-18.57%
ACT
489,668
+2,409
0.49%
1.28%
ACT
2,065
+1,445
233.06%
4.45%
AUS
27,921,150
+130,887
0.47%
1.43%
AUS
101,005
+44,873
79.94%
-6.25%
• Growth remains migration-led rather than natural increase-led, with interstate flows
continuing to favour WA and QLD, while NSW remains the largest net loser and VIC turned positive for the first time in several quarters.
• Overseas migration surged to 101,005 nationally in the March quarter, up 80% on
December (56,132), reflecting the seasonal student intake.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
28
State Population Snapshot Interstate Migration
Natural Increase Mar-26
Qtr Ch.
Qtr Ch. %
Yr Ch.
Mar-26
Qtr Ch.
Qtr Ch. %
Yr Ch.
NSW
11,010
+4,502
69.18%
18.15%
NSW
-4,970
+872
14.93%
11.52%
VIC
7,976
+1,323
19.89%
-6.84%
VIC
505
+659
427.92%
292.75%
QLD
5,385
+935
21.01%
-4.16%
QLD
2,491
-2,422
-49.30%
-42.08%
SA
793
+35
4.62%
-22.25%
SA
-320
+43
11.85%
53.49%
WA
3,107
+579
22.90%
-13.28%
WA
2,875
+460
19.05%
-3.52%
TAS
256
+190
287.88%
12.28%
TAS
264
+612
175.86%
393.33%
NT
617
+200
47.96%
29.89%
NT
-456
-36
-8.57%
-380.00%
ACT
733
+90
14.00%
-3.04%
ACT
-389
-188
-93.53%
26.47%
AUS
29,882
+7,857
35.67%
1.09%
• Natural increase rebounded nationally, up 35.7% q/q to 29,882 in March 2026, after
December’s series low.
• Interstate migration remains mixed and volatile across states.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
29
National Population Projections Persons • National population growth is expected to remain steady
(1.2% p.a.), reaching an estimated 28.6 million by 2027-28.
• Growth profile shows a moderation from recent migration-
driven peaks but remains above long-term averages.
• Population growth remains migration-led, with net
Natural Increase 400,000
overseas migration (225k-262k p.a.) consistently accounting for the majority of growth.
350,000
• Natural increase is estimated to be materially lower
300,000
(99k-115k p.a.), contributing roughly one-third of total growth.
Net Overseas Migration
250,000
• Net overseas migration is expected to decline from 262k to
roughly 226k, signalling a controlled slowdown.
200,000
• Despite easing, migration remains structurally elevated
versus pre-COVID levels, and continues to be the key lever driving housing demand and population growth.
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28 Source: Centre of Population
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
30
State Population Projections Population Projections State Growth Leaders
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
3 Yr Ave Growth
VIC
7,064,041
7,166,641
7,264,341
7,365,241
1.4%
NSW
8,587,369
8,679,269
8,765,469
8,856,669
1.0%
QLD
5,670,203
5,755,503
5,833,303
5,910,603
1.4%
SA
1,906,830
1,922,830
1,936,430
1,949,330
0.7%
WA
3,044,966
3,100,566
3,147,666
3,191,466
1.6%
TAS
577,827
578,727
580,127
582,027
0.2%
NT
265,978
269,278
271,778
273,978
1.0%
ACT
484,681
490,781
496,781
503,381
1.3%
AUS
27,601,895
27,963,595
28,295,895
28,632,695
1.2%
• WA (1.6% p.a.) is the fastest growing state, underpinned by
migration and economic momentum.
• VIC and QLD (both 1.4% p.a.) remain key growth engines,
driving both volume and rate of growth.
• ACT (1.3% p.a.) continues to perform strongly on a
smaller base.
Mid-Tier Growth • NSW (1.0% p.a.) shows stable but slower growth,
reflecting net interstate outflows.
• NT (1.0% p.a.) also sits in this bracket, though with
more volatility.
Volume Growth (Key Insight) • NSW and VIC remain the largest contributors in absolute
terms, adding the most population despite slower growth rates.
• QLD and WA continue to gain share, reflecting interstate
migration and affordability-driven demand shifts.
Source: Centre of Population
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
31
Economic Conditions and Property Outcomes Interest rates, confidence, and population growth are some of the biggest factors impacting the property market, though they are not the only ones. The economy and the property market move together. Rates set the ceiling on what buyers can borrow, confidence decides whether they act on it, and population decides where the pressure lands. The 4.35% interest rate, combined with variable rates now at 6.80%, is a major constraint on the market. This shows up in lending, with investor lending growth down from 25% to 7.9% year on year, and established dwelling lending negative annually for the first time this cycle. It shows up in prices in much the same way. Sydney, the market most exposed to serviceability limits on larger loans, is down -3.3% annually. Melbourne is close behind at - 0.3%, and CBA and ANZ have both converged on further national falls through 2026 and 2027.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Inflation and wages are adding to the pressure. Real wages are still negative annually, even though the gap to inflation narrowed sharply in June, and that squeeze has hit confidence. Consumer confidence fell to 80.1 in April and hasn’t recovered above 84 since, while business confidence has been negative for three straight months, concentrated in rate sensitive sectors like construction. Population growth explains part of the divide between states, but not all of it. WA and QLD are both growing quickly on population and running above trend economically, and it is showing in their property markets. Perth and Brisbane are two of the strongest performers nationally on both price and rent. VIC is the exception. It’s the second fastest growing state in population but its economic growth is the weakest of the three with Melbourne being one of the markets now in correction. NSW sits at the other end. It’s the weakest of the major states on economic growth, losing population interstate, and its property market (particularly Sydney) is showing signs of correction.
32
Property & Lending Update
This section outlines Australia’s residential market and lending environment, focusing on dwelling price movements, borrowing activity, and buyer composition. It also considers supply-side dynamics, including approvals, commencements and completions, to frame the outlook for housing demand and delivery heading forward.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
33
Residential Property Prices Houses
Units
Land
• Perth (+18.7% y/y; -1.5% q/q) and Darwin (+16.7% y/y; -5.4% q/q) recorded the strongest annual house price growth nationally, though both eased in the June quarter.
• Perth (+21.4% y/y; -2.7% q/q) and Hobart (+19.3% y/y; +10.0% q/q) recorded the strongest annual unit price growth. Hobart was also the standout performer for the quarter.
• Brisbane (+16.6% y/y; -1.3% q/q) and Adelaide (+12.9% y/y; +0.1% q/q) continue to show solid annual growth, with Adelaide the only capital to record a positive quarterly result.
• Brisbane (+15.8% y/y; -1.2% q/q) and Adelaide (+12.2% y/y; -2.7% q/q) also posted solid annual growth, though both eased in the June quarter.
• Perth (+54.5% y/y; +13.3% q/q) remains a clear outlier, recording by far the strongest annual and quarterly land price growth of any capital, reflecting acute supply constraints in growth corridors.
• Melbourne ($850,000) is the most affordable mainland capital outside Darwin ($700,000). Melbourne (-4.0% q/q; -0.3% y/y) also declined for the quarter and is essentially flat annually. • Sydney (-4.3% q/q; -3.3% y/y; $1,450,000) recorded both a quarterly and annual decline, the weakest annual performer of any capital. • Hobart (-6.8% q/q; -1.3% y/y; $690,000) recorded the steepest quarterly decline of any capital, a reversal from a period of stronger growth. • Overall, house price growth has cooled across almost every capital in the June quarter, with only Adelaide holding positive. The two largest markets (Sydney and Melbourne) are both negative on an annual basis.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
• Darwin (+12.0% y/y; -5.7% q/q) recorded a sizeable quarterly pullback despite solid annual growth. • Sydney (+0.7% y/y; -2.2% q/q) and Canberra (0.0% y/y; -1.3% q/q) were essentially flat annually, both recording quarterly declines. • Melbourne (-1.4% y/y; -2.9% q/q) was the only capital to record an outright annual decline in unit prices. • Overall, unit price growth is holding up better than houses on an annual basis, but every capital recorded a quarterly decline except Hobart, pointing to a broad-based loss of momentum in the June quarter.
• Adelaide (+21.3% y/y; +2.9% q/q) and Brisbane (+14.3% y/y; +1.0% q/q) also recorded solid growth on both measures. • Sydney (+3.8% y/y; +1.4% q/q) remains comparatively subdued but still positive on both measures. • Melbourne (-0.5% y/y), Hobart (-6.2% y/y) and Canberra (-6.5% y/y) all recorded annual land price declines, with Canberra also posting the steepest quarterly fall of any capital (-11.1% q/q). • Darwin land data is not available in this dataset, so no comparison can be made there. • Overall, land price growth remains the most polarised of the three product types, split between an exceptionally strong Perth and Adelaide, and outright declines in Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra, underscoring how uneven supply-side pressure is across the country.
National Median Property Prices House
Unit
Land
Sydney
$1.45M
$831K
$715K
Melbourne
$850K
$612K
$385K
Brisbane
$1.20M
$850k
$482K
Adelaide
$960K
$735K
$370K
Perth
$985K
$710K
$595K
Hobart
$690K
$680K
$285K
Darwin
$700K
$448K
-
Canberra
$1.01M
$630K
$599K
Source: Pricefinder
34
Residential Prices - Q2 2026 Sydney
Melbourne
House
Unit
Land
House
Unit
Land
$1.45M
$831K
$715K
$850K
$612K
$385K
-3.3% Ann. Ch.
-4.3% Qtr Ch.
+0.7% Ann. Ch.
-2.2% Qtr Ch.
+3.8% Ann. Ch.
+1.4% Qtr Ch.
Brisbane
-0.3% Ann. Ch.
-4.0% Qtr Ch.
-1.4% Ann. Ch.
-2.9% Qtr Ch.
-0.5% Ann. Ch.
Perth
House
Unit
Land
House
Unit
Land
$1.20M
$850K
$482K
$985K
$710K
$595K
+16.6% Ann. Ch.
-1.3% Qtr Ch.
+15.8% Ann. Ch.
-1.2% Qtr Ch.
+14.3% Ann. Ch.
+1.0% Qtr Ch.
Adelaide
+18.7% Ann. Ch.
-1.5% Qtr Ch.
+21.4% Ann. Ch.
-2.7% Qtr Ch.
+54.5% Ann. Ch.
Unit
Land
House
Unit
Land
$960K
$735K
$370K
$1.01M
$630K
$599K
+0.1% Qtr Ch.
+12.2% Ann. Ch.
-2.7% Qtr Ch.
+21.3% Ann. Ch.
+2.9% Qtr Ch.
Hobart
+1.3% Ann. Ch.
-5.4% Qtr Ch.
+0.0% Ann. Ch.
-1.3% Qtr Ch.
-6.5% Ann. Ch.
-11.1% Qtr Ch.
Darwin
House
Unit
Land
House
Unit
Land
$690K
$680K
$285K
$700K
$448K
N/A
-1.3% Ann. Ch.
+13.3% Qtr Ch.
Canberra
House
+12.9% Ann. Ch.
-3.8% Qtr Ch.
-6.8% Qtr Ch.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
+19.3% Ann. Ch.
+10.0% Qtr Ch.
-6.2% Ann. Ch.
-4.4% Qtr Ch.
+16.7% Ann. Ch.
-5.4% Qtr Ch.
+12.0% Ann. Ch.
-5.7% Qtr Ch.
N/A Ann. Ch.
N/A Qtr Ch.
35
Residential Prices Annual Change in Prices Houses
Units
Quarterly Change in Prices
Land
Houses
60.0%
Units
Land
15.0%
50.0%
10.0%
40.0% 5.0% 30.0% 0.0% 20.0% -5.0% 10.0% -10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
-15.0%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra Source: Pricefinder
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
36
Lending Activity - Loans Total Loans by Buyer Type
1%
QLD SA
29,686 9,602
4% 11%
-1% 2%
WA
16,643
8%
-2%
TAS
2,891
17%
19%
NT
1,161
26%
3%
ACT
3,001
8%
9%
AUS
137,155
7%
0%
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Mar-26
9%
Dec-25
37,764
Sep-25
VIC
Jun-25
-1%
Mar-25
categories grew strongly quarter on quarter (FHB +11.0%, non-FHB OO +8.3%, investor +3.9%), suggesting the June rebound is a recovery in activity, but coming off a much softer base than a quarter ago.
6%
Dec-24
• Despite the annual slowdown, all three
36,407
Sep-24
every loan category. Investor lending, the strongest performer in March at +19.2% y/y, has cooled to just +2.5% y/y. FHB lending has gone from +4.2% y/y to essentially flat (-0.1% y/y), and non-FHB owner-occupier lending has turned negative (-2.8% y/y, down from +1.9%).
NSW
Investor
70,000
Jun-24
• Annual growth has decelerated sharply across
Yr Ch.
Non-First Home Buyer
Mar-24
as the largest lending market nationally, with QLD (29,686) a solid third.
Qtr. Ch
Dec-23
• VIC (37,764) has overtaken NSW (36,407)
Count
First Home Buyer
Sep-23
rebounded to 137,155 loans in Q2 2026, up 7.1% q/q from the Q1 seasonal pullback (128,062), though still roughly flat on an annual basis (-0.1% y/y against June 2025).
Jun-23
• Total housing finance commitments
Mar-23
Total New Loans - June 2026
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
37
First Home Buyer Loans First Home Buyer Loans - June 2026 • 30,129 FHB loans nationally in June 2026, up
11.0% q/q but essentially flat annually (-0.1% y/y). Volumes remain slightly above the 3-year average (29,243).
• VIC (9,791) leads FHB volumes, followed by
NSW (7,117) and QLD (5,597).
• SA has gone from the only state with an
annual FHB decline in March (-2.3%) to the strongest annual growth of any state in June (+22.9%). TAS, last quarter’s leader (+13.2%), has eased to +9.3%.
• Four states now show annual FHB declines
(VIC -4.3%, QLD -2.7%, WA -1.8%, NT -3.9%), a broader spread of weakness than the single-state decline reported for March.
Count
Qtr. Ch
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Qtr. Ave.
NSW
7,117
8%
2%
7,028
VIC
9,791
15%
-4%
9,472
QLD
5,597
5%
-3%
5,630
SA
2,236
37%
23%
1,815
WA
3,592
2%
-2%
3,791
TAS
661
19%
9%
522
NT
248
37%
-4%
210
ACT
887
3%
5%
775
AUS
30,129
11%
0%
29,243
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
38
Non-First Home Buyer Loans Non-First Home Buyer Loans - June 2026 • 52,980 non-FHB owner-occupier loans
nationally in June 2026, up 8.3% q/q but now negative on an annual basis (-2.7% y/y), a reversal from March’s modest +1.9% y/y growth. Volumes remain close to the 3-year average (52,310).
• VIC (14,457) and NSW (13,901) lead, with QLD
(11,944) also a significant contributor.
• SA now shows the steepest annual decline of
any state (-9.8% y/y), not WA as reported for March (WA has eased to -6.3% y/y from -10.0%).
• ACT (+10.4% y/y) and NT (+6.4% y/y) are now
the only states with positive annual growth, a narrower base of strength than the “broadly stable” picture described for March.
Count
Qtr. Ch
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Qtr. Ave.
NSW
13,901
9%
-1%
13,709
VIC
14,457
6%
-2%
14,150
QLD
11,944
6%
-3%
11,983
SA
3,515
8%
-10%
3,596
WA
6,422
14%
-6%
6,355
TAS
1,087
13%
-6%
1,031
NT
348
23%
6%
331
ACT
1,306
12%
10%
1,156
AUS
52,980
8%
-3%
52,310
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
39
Investor Loans Investor Loans - June 2026 • 54,046 investor loans nationally in June 2026,
up 3.9% q/q. Annual growth has decelerated sharply to +2.5% y/y, down from the +19.2% y/y reported for March, though volumes remain above the 3-year average (49,266).
• NSW (15,389) leads investor volumes
nationally, followed by VIC (13,516) and QLD (12,145), an unchanged ranking from March.
• VIC (+7.1% y/y) is now the strongest performer
among major states, a sharp step down from March’s +29.3% y/y. NSW has swung from +16.3% y/y growth in March to an outright annual decline of -3.3% y/y.
• The rapid annual growth that had been
building through late 2025 and into March has largely evaporated. Investor lending is still growing quarter on quarter, but March’s “structural shift toward investor-led activity” looks more like a peak than a sustained trend based on the June data.
Count
Qtr. Ch
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Qtr. Ave.
NSW
15,389
2%
-3%
14,846
VIC
13,516
6%
7%
11,544
QLD
12,145
0%
1%
11,467
SA
3,851
2%
4%
3,440
WA
6,629
7%
2%
6,108
TAS
1,143
20%
69%
624
NT
565
23%
4%
371
ACT
808
9%
11%
867
AUS
54,046
4%
3%
49,266
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
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40
Number of New Loan Commitments by Type Count of Owner Occupier Loans by Type
90,000 80,000
By Type
70,000
• 10,309 construction loans nationally in June 2026 (+22.4%
60,000
Annual growth has decelerated sharply from the +9.4% y/y reported for March.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Mar-26
Feb-26
Jan-26
Dec-25
Nov-25
Oct-25
Sep-25
Aug-25
Jul-25
Jun-25
May-25
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Apr-24
Mar-24
0 Feb-24
• 5,699 land loans in June 2026 (+16.0% q/q; +1.8% y/y).
10,000 Jan-24
(+7.4% q/q; -4.1% y/y), a reversal from March’s modest +1.2% y/y growth. Still the dominant segment at ~71% of total owner occupier lending.
20,000
Dec-23
• 68,459 established dwelling loans in June 2026
30,000
Nov-23
+1.0% y/y), still tracking modestly, similar to March’s subdued pace.
40,000
Oct-23
• 4,341 new dwelling loans in June 2026 (+11.2% q/q;
50,000
Sep-23
q/q; +14.9% y/y), a strong acceleration from March’s +10.7% y/y.
Aug-23
little change from March, but the segment itself is now contracting annually.
100,000
Jul-23
• Established dwellings still account for ~71% of total lending,
Established Dwelling Total Average Value
110,000
Jun-23
markets, with QLD (21,165) a solid third.
Newly Erected Dwelling Alteration & Additions
120,000
May-23
• VIC (27,198) and NSW (24,429) remain the two largest
Construction of a Dwelling Residential Land
Apr-23
8.7% q/q from the March quarter (89,016). Annual growth has turned negative (-1.0% y/y), a reversal from the +3.9% y/y growth reported for March.
Mar-23
• 96,790 owner-occupier loans nationally in June 2026, up
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
41
Number of New Loan Commitments by Type Number of Owner Occupier Loans for Construction of Dwelling
Number of Owner Occupier Loans for Newly Erected Dwellings
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
NSW
1,483
15.9%
20.5%
0.3%
NSW
1,075
-1.0%
-3.8%
-7.3%
VIC
2,915
33.5%
18.1%
1.4%
VIC
1,281
11.4%
-13.4%
-7.5%
QLD
2,181
18.1%
6.3%
14.0%
QLD
698
11.3%
-2.8%
-9.1%
SA
1,107
33.9%
13.9%
10.5%
SA
573
71.0%
36.1%
26.2%
WA
2,272
10.4%
14.6%
18.1%
WA
477
4.8%
44.5%
-0.1%
TAS
175
63.6%
59.1%
12.8%
TAS
56
21.7%
27.3%
-8.0%
NT
93
75.5%
9.4%
41.3%
NT
12
-7.7%
0.0%
-2.6%
ACT
83
20.3%
18.6%
5.3%
ACT
169
-11.1%
-3.4%
-12.8%
AUS
10,309
22.4%
14.9%
8.1%
AUS
4,341
11.3%
1.0%
-4.6%
• Every state recorded positive annual growth in June, a reversal from March when SA
(-4.8%) and TAS (-2.7%) were the only decliners. TAS now leads at +59.1% y/y (off a small base), with NSW (+20.5%) the strongest of the larger markets.
• VIC (2,915) and WA (2,272) remain the largest construction lending markets, followed
by QLD (2,181).
• SA (+36.1% y/y) and WA (+44.5% y/y) now lead annual growth. ACT, March’s co-leader
at +55.7% y/y, has swung to an outright decline (-3.4% y/y).
• VIC (-13.4% y/y) recorded the largest annual decline of any state, extending the
softening seen in March. VIC (1,281) and NSW (1,075) remain the largest markets by volume despite VIC’s ongoing weakness. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
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42
Number of New Loan Commitments by Type Number of Owner Occupier Loans for Established Dwellings
Number of Owner Occupier Loans for Residential Land
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
NSW
18,460
8.6%
-1.2%
2.3%
NSW
1,085
13.1%
0.8%
-7.7%
VIC
20,052
7.0%
-4.5%
4.9%
VIC
1,540
31.7%
-3.6%
-12.0%
QLD
14,662
4.3%
-4.2%
0.3%
QLD
1,277
19.1%
2.8%
5.9%
SA
4,071
9.0%
-5.8%
-3.4%
SA
572
12.2%
7.1%
3.6%
WA
7,265
9.0%
-11.4%
-4.3%
WA
958
-1.4%
0.3%
17.9%
TAS
1,517
11.5%
-5.6%
4.7%
TAS
158
4.6%
32.8%
4.4%
NT
491
23.4%
0.6%
2.6%
NT
58
13.7%
45.0%
34.2%
ACT
1,941
9.9%
8.8%
6.7%
ACT
51
70.0%
54.5%
11.3%
AUS
68,459
7.4%
-4.1%
1.6%
AUS
5,699
16.0%
1.8%
-1.8%
• VIC (20,052) and NSW (18,460) lead volumes nationally, with QLD (14,662) a solid third.
ACT (+8.8% y/y) and NT (+0.6% y/y) are now the only states with positive annual growth; NSW, March’s strongest performer at +7.1%, has swung to a decline (-1.2% y/y). WA (-11.4% y/y) continues to record the steepest annual decline, consistent with the rotation toward construction and land lending flagged in March, though the pace of decline has eased slightly from -13.5%.
• NT (+45.0% y/y) and ACT (+54.5% y/y) now lead annual growth, both off small bases.
WA, March’s leader at +24.8%, has slowed to just +0.3% y/y, and VIC has turned negative (-3.6% y/y). VIC (1,540) leads land lending volumes, followed by QLD (1,277) and NSW (1,085). WA has fallen back to fifth by volume (958) despite being highlighted as a volume leader in March. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
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43
Value of New Loan Commitments by Type Average Price of New Loans by Type • Loan values were mixed in June; some categories
climbed and others eased. Land continues to climb, while established, newly erected and construction loan values all eased slightly for the quarter.
• Established dwellings still carry the highest average loan
($739,876), followed by new dwellings ($686,109) and construction ($688,689), with land remaining the most affordable entry point ($451,290).
• QLD, SA and WA construction loan growth has decelerated
to +7.8%, +10.2% and +7.6% y/y respectively, down from the +13.6%, +12.1% and +14.6% reported for March.
• NSW no longer carries the highest average loan across
every product type. ACT has overtaken it for construction loans specifically.
Construction of a Dwelling Residential Land
Newly Erected Dwelling Alteration & Additions
Established Dwelling Total Average Value
$800,000 $750,000 $700,000 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Jun-26
May-26
Apr-26
Mar-26
Feb-26
Jan-26
Dec-25
Nov-25
Oct-25
Sep-25
Aug-25
Jul-25
Jun-25
May-25
Apr-25
Mar-25
Feb-25
Jan-25
Dec-24
Nov-24
Oct-24
Sep-24
Aug-24
Jul-24
Jun-24
May-24
Apr-24
Mar-24
Feb-24
Jan-24
Dec-23
Nov-23
Oct-23
Sep-23
Aug-23
Jul-23
Jun-23
$0
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
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44
Value of New Loan Commitments by Type Average Value of New Loan Commitments for Construction of Dwelling
Average Value of New Loan Commitments for Newly Erected Dwellings
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
NSW
$790,357
0.7%
-0.2%
4.9%
NSW
$772,465
-7.6%
-2.3%
4.5%
VIC
$667,170
-0.6%
2.2%
4.0%
VIC
$655,191
-1.4%
11.2%
3.8%
QLD
$706,327
-1.3%
7.8%
7.1%
QLD
$739,685
-5.6%
2.1%
12.2%
SA
$630,443
-0.4%
10.2%
7.1%
SA
$641,187
1.1%
14.7%
11.2%
WA
$668,222
1.2%
7.6%
10.4%
WA
$592,453
23.7%
-3.4%
13.4%
TAS
$581,143
0.0%
-4.6%
5.7%
TAS
$535,714
6.7%
24.7%
9.6%
NT
$607,527
8.4%
4.5%
2.0%
NT
$633,333
35.0%
35.7%
20.5%
ACT
$816,867
10.3%
8.5%
4.4%
ACT
$620,710
-9.1%
20.6%
7.0%
AUS
$688,689
-0.3%
4.9%
5.8%
AUS
$686,109
-2.7%
4.3%
6.5%
• National average construction loan: $688,689 (-0.3% q/q; +4.9% y/y), a sharp
deceleration from March’s +9.1% y/y. QLD (+7.8% y/y; $706,327), SA (+10.2% y/y; $630,443) and WA (+7.6% y/y; $668,222) all eased materially from March’s growth rates. ACT ($816,867) is now the highest state, overtaking NSW ($790,357), with QLD ($706,327) third.
• National average new dwelling loan: $686,109 (-2.7% q/q; +4.3% y/y), easing from
March’s +8.0% y/y. QLD’s annual growth has decelerated sharply to +2.1% y/y, down from +18.4% in March. WA’s decline has moderated to -3.4% y/y, a real recovery from the -19.9% recorded in March, the sharpest fall of any state at the time. NSW ($772,465) remains the highest, followed by QLD ($739,685), an unchanged ranking from March. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
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45
Value of New Loan Commitments by Type Value of New Loan Commitments for Established Dwellings
Value of New Loan Commitments for Residential Land
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
NSW
$849,848
-2.1%
3.9%
5.2%
NSW
$524,608
2.2%
7.4%
6.1%
VIC
$664,278
-1.7%
3.7%
3.7%
VIC
$419,286
4.2%
5.7%
5.9%
QLD
$758,184
2.0%
14.7%
14.0%
QLD
$494,127
2.9%
22.2%
13.7%
SA
$687,227
1.9%
13.2%
13.1%
SA
$359,091
-4.9%
27.3%
13.8%
WA
$744,584
1.8%
20.0%
16.5%
WA
$459,395
4.6%
24.3%
14.1%
TAS
$507,976
-1.7%
6.8%
4.3%
TAS
$258,228
0.8%
2.4%
-0.1%
NT
$531,568
-1.0%
13.6%
6.7%
NT
$234,483
-19.2%
-13.2%
-4.2%
ACT
$663,472
0.1%
3.2%
3.5%
ACT
$511,765
-14.7%
-4.6%
-0.1%
AUS
$739,876
-0.4%
8.5%
8.2%
AUS
$451,290
2.3%
13.6%
8.4%
• National average established loan: $739,876 (-0.4% q/q; +8.5% y/y), easing from
March’s +11.9% y/y. WA (+20.0% y/y; $744,584) and QLD (+14.7% y/y; $758,184) remain the strongest performers, both slightly softer than March but still well above the national pace. NSW ($849,848) remains the highest nationally, while SA’s growth has accelerated to +13.2% y/y (from +12.0% in March), one of the few segments moving against the broader deceleration.
• National average land loan: $451,290 (+2.3% q/q; +13.6% y/y), still the fastest-growing
segment, though annual growth has eased from March’s +17.5%. SA (+27.3% y/y), QLD (+22.2% y/y) and WA (+24.3% y/y) all remain strong but have decelerated from March’s +34.5%, +26.8% and +28.4% respectively. SA’s price also fell -4.9% q/q despite the strong annual figure. NSW ($524,608) is now the highest-priced land market, after ACT’s average fell to $511,765 (down from $600,000 in March, a ~15% quarterly drop). Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
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46
Value of New Loan Commitments by Type Value of New Loan Commitments for Alterations & Additions
Value of New Loan Commitments - Total
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
NSW
$282,072
10.8%
14.0%
11.1%
NSW
$724,168
-1.5%
3.2%
4.9%
VIC
$206,312
-3.6%
6.1%
-0.5%
VIC
$592,110
-2.3%
3.6%
4.9%
QLD
$226,161
-1.9%
0.2%
11.4%
QLD
$622,410
2.0%
11.6%
12.0%
SA
$220,255
8.4%
12.3%
15.4%
SA
$562,218
3.7%
12.0%
11.6%
WA
$218,243
3.3%
12.1%
25.6%
WA
$600,450
3.7%
14.0%
12.9%
TAS
$168,696
-8.6%
-1.3%
-9.1%
TAS
$446,462
2.3%
6.1%
5.7%
NT
$190,385
-20.2%
-9.5%
24.9%
NT
$460,482
-0.2%
6.3%
5.4%
ACT
$197,297
-14.1%
-17.4%
4.1%
ACT
$610,577
-1.5%
3.1%
3.7%
AUS
$235,931
2.8%
7.2%
9.7%
AUS
$627,435
-0.1%
6.9%
7.7%
• National average renovation loan: $235,931 (+2.8% q/q), a reversal from the softening
described for March. NT recorded a -20.2% q/q decline, the opposite of the spike reported for the prior quarter, reinforcing that this series is volatile on a small base. NSW ($282,072) leads by state value and grew a further 10.8% q/q, widening its gap over every other state.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
47
Owner Occupier vs. Investor Activity Owner Occupier Loans
Investor Loans
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
NSW
$17,691
6.1%
3.2%
6.9%
NSW
$13,091
1.3%
-1.1%
12.0%
VIC
$16,104
8.0%
1.1%
7.5%
VIC
$8,164
5.8%
8.3%
11.5%
QLD
$13,173
7.5%
10.0%
14.5%
QLD
$8,661
0.7%
12.9%
23.5%
SA
$3,863
18.6%
13.1%
12.7%
SA
$2,472
2.1%
11.7%
22.7%
WA
$7,210
11.8%
10.6%
14.7%
WA
$4,496
10.8%
18.5%
28.7%
TAS
$902
14.4%
6.1%
9.8%
TAS
$599
22.0%
87.1%
36.1%
NT
$325
30.3%
14.8%
13.4%
NT
$250
27.2%
9.7%
45.9%
ACT
$1,461
8.1%
13.3%
8.7%
ACT
$551
8.4%
12.5%
1.1%
AUS
$60,729
8.6%
5.8%
9.9%
AUS
$38,284
3.7%
7.9%
16.7%
• $60,729m in owner occupier lending nationally in June 2026 (+8.6% q/q; +5.8% y/y),
• $38,284m in investor lending nationally in June 2026 (+3.7% q/q; +7.9% y/y), still the
• Annual growth remains positive across the board, but the pace has slowed materially
• Investor lending is still growing faster than owner occupier lending, but the gap has
rebounding from the March pullback but with annual growth decelerating sharply from March’s +14.4%. from the double-digit gains reported for March.
faster-growing segment relative to owner occupiers, but a sharp deceleration from March’s +25.0% y/y.
narrowed considerably (+7.9% vs +5.8% y/y), a much less pronounced structural shift than the March data suggested.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
48
Owner Occupier vs. Investor Split Owner Occupier Share of Loan Value • Owner occupier lending accounts for 61.3% of total
lending in June 2026, up from 60.2% in March, continuing the modest tilt back toward owner occupiers.
• Long term, investor activity remains structurally higher
than the 2017 to 2020 period, even as its growth rate cools from the highs recorded earlier in 2026.
• Quarter on quarter, SA (+3.6pp), QLD (+1.6pp) and
NSW (+1.1pp) recorded the largest owner occupier share increases; TAS (-1.5pp) was the only state to see a meaningful share decline, with ACT essentially flat.
• The investor growth trend has moderated considerably.
With national investor lending growth down to +7.9% y/y from +25.0% in March, the rental market driven, yield seeking dynamic described for March looks to be easing.
Jun-26
Mar-26
Dec-25
80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
WA
TAS
NT
ACT
Australia
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
49
Business Lending Value of New Loan Commitments for Businesses • Business lending rebounded to $3,403.7bn in June 2026,
up 2.1% q/q from the March pullback ($3,332.9bn), though annual growth has slowed to just +0.9% y/y, a much flatter trajectory than the quarter-to-quarter swings suggest.
• Plant and equipment lending ($3,084.3bn) remains the
dominant category but is now essentially flat to slightly down on an annual basis (-1.3% y/y), even as it holds well above 2023-24 average levels.
• Road vehicle lending ($830.9bn) recovered modestly from
the March low ($793.8bn), up 4.7% q/q, but remains below the September 2025 peak ($913bn) and down -4.2% y/y.
• The level of business lending remains elevated relative to
2023-24, but the underlying annual growth rate has cooled considerably, suggesting the earlier expansion in business investment in productive assets is levelling.
Total
Purchase of Plant and Equipment
Purchase of Road Vehicles
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
Jun-2026
May-2026
Apr-2026
Mar-2026
Feb-2026
Jan-2026
Dec-2025
Nov-2025
Oct-2025
Sep-2025
Aug-2025
Jul-2025
Jun-2025
May-2025
Apr-2025
Mar-2025
Feb-2025
Jan-2025
Dec-2024
Nov-2024
Oct-2024
Sep-2024
Aug-2024
Jul-2024
Jun-2024
May-2024
Apr-2024
Mar-2024
Feb-2024
Jan-2024
Dec-2023
Nov-2023
Oct-2023
Sep-2023
Aug-2023
Jul-2023
Jun-2023
0
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
50
Approvals
Total Approvals
53,726
Detached Houses
32,909
+12.3% q/q; +12.4% y/y
• Approvals moved above
the 10-year average (49,441) for the first time in several quarters, and remain above 2023 trough levels (37k-43k).
• The rebound reverses
the March pullback, with growth across every dwelling type.
+15.2% q/q; +18.2% y/y
• Annual growth
accelerated sharply, with volumes now above the 10-year average (29,235).
• Detached housing
remains the core market, posting its strongest quarter in the current series.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Townhomes
8,907
+12.7% q/q; -5.0% y/y
• Annual growth negative
for the first time in recent series, reversing double-digit gains through 2025.
• The quarterly rebound
is positive, but annual softening is worth watching given the segment’s role in medium-density supply.
1-3 Storey Apt.
840
+67.3% q/q; +29.2% y/y
• The sharp rebound
follows a soft March quarter, reinforcing that activity here reflects lumpy project timing rather than sustained demand.
• Volumes remain
below the 10-year average (925).
4+ Storey Apt.
11,070
+2.0% q/q; +11.5% y/y
• Annual growth turned
positive again, reversing the negative reading recorded in March.
• Approvals remain just
below the 10-year average (11,199), but this is now the strongest annual reading of the four dwelling types.
51
Building Approvals at the State Level Detached Home Approvals by State
Townhome Approvals by State
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
NSW
9,261
14.1%
23.7%
6.8%
NSW
2,827
12.7%
-16.4%
3.8%
VIC
6,758
16.5%
14.3%
6.7%
VIC
2,914
21.3%
4.4%
2.3%
QLD
7,434
13.8%
20.8%
14.6%
QLD
1,608
4.4%
15.4%
3.5%
SA
2,929
30.9%
15.1%
5.6%
SA
850
-3.5%
-6.8%
15.6%
WA
5,474
7.0%
14.9%
23.1%
WA
470
2.4%
-38.3%
49.7%
TAS
672
22.2%
46.4%
0.5%
TAS
26
333.3%
-10.3%
2.7%
NT
181
75.7%
20.7%
19.5%
NT
106
341.7%
211.8%
112.8%
ACT
200
17.6%
-3.4%
2.6%
ACT
106
30.9%
100.0%
-3.2%
AUS
32,909
15.2%
18.2%
10.3%
AUS
8,907
12.7%
-5.0%
5.7%
• 32,909 approvals in June 2026 (+15.2% q/q; +18.2% y/y), with NSW (+23.7%) and QLD
(+20.8%) now leading annual growth.
• WA eases back into the pack; ACT (-3.4%) is the only state in decline, a reversal from SA
• 8,907 approvals in June 2026 (+12.7% q/q; -5.0% y/y), with QLD (+15.4%) the only
consistently strong growth market, while SA has reversed from March’s standout +43.2% gain to a -6.8% decline and NSW swung from barely positive to a -16.4% fall.
and NT, both of which were negative in March and have since swung strongly positive.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
52
Building Approvals at the State Level Apartment Approvals (1-3 Storeys) by State
Apartment Approvals (4+ Storeys) by State
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
Jun-26
Qtr Ch.
Yr Ch.
3 Yr Ave.
NSW
211
-10.8%
-7.5%
-19.1%
NSW
1,970
52.9%
-13.7%
-11.7%
VIC
99
139.8%
-1.9%
24.3%
VIC
4,122
-39.6%
17.1%
4.6%
QLD
153
88.9%
70.0%
16.8%
QLD
3,745
23.5%
93.1%
40.5%
SA
102
183.3%
34.2%
44.2%
SA
342
27.6%
0.0%
48.7%
WA
224
115.4%
86.7%
N/A
WA
327
-68.6%
-32.0%
6.1%
TAS
51
218.8%
200.0%
85.4%
TAS
48
N/A
N/A
188.4%
NT
0
N/A
N/A
0.0%
NT
0
N/A
N/A
0.0%
ACT
0
N/A
N/A
0.0%
ACT
516
-7.5%
-27.1%
42.9%
AUS
840
67.3%
29.2%
24.5%
AUS
11,070
2.0%
11.5%
4.8%
• 840 approvals in June 2026 (+67.3% q/q; +29.2% y/y), still a small, volatile segment,
•
• VIC’s decline has eased sharply from March’s -38.9% to just -1.9%.
•
now led by WA (+86.7%) and QLD (+70.0%) off low bases.
11,070 approvals in June 2026 (+2.0% q/q; +11.5% y/y), with QLD (+93.1%) still driving the bulk of national growth. WA has flipped from +31.5% growth in March to a -32.0% decline, and VIC has swung from decline to +17.1% growth. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
53
Commencements
Total Commencements
45,154
-16.7% q/q; +0.5% y/y • The sharp quarterly pullback reverses the
stronger momentum seen in the prior quarter, though annual growth remains marginally positive.
• QLD (+20.2% y/y) and WA (+5.1% y/y) are the
only larger states still growing annually, while NSW (-9.5%) and VIC (-11.8%) have turned negative.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Detached House Commencements
25,687
-13.2% q/q and -2.4% y/y
Other Dwelling Commencements
19,467
-21.0% q/q and +4.6% y/y
• Detached activity has slipped into annual decline,
• The quarterly decline is sharper than detached
• WA (+0.1% y/y) is essentially flat and VIC (+0.9%
• QLD (+72.0% y/y) and WA (+34.1% y/y) are
• NT (-38.8%) recorded the steepest annual fall.
• VIC (-20.5%) and NSW (-14.2%) are in
a reversal from the modest growth reported previously. y/y) only marginally positive.
housing, though annual growth remains positive, driven by a handful of smaller states. driving the annual growth. outright decline.
54
Commencement Forecast Total Dwelling Commencements Forecast Total Dwelling Commencements • Total commencements forecast to increase +16.1% nationally. • WA (+33.2%) and NT (+32.4%) lead forecast growth, with QLD (+20.2%) also
well above the national pace.
• TAS (+7.4%) is the softest forecast growth of any state, though no state is
forecast to decline outright.
2022-24 Ave.
2025-27 Ave.
% Change
NSW
47,727
54,224
13.6%
VIC
54,731
60,599
10.7%
QLD
36,907
44,353
20.2%
SA
12,536
14,116
12.6%
WA
18,993
25,298
33.2%
TAS
2,493
2,678
7.4%
NT
573
758
32.4%
ACT
3,746
4,268
13.9%
AUS
177,705
206,294
16.1%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Housing Industry Association, RPM Market Intelligence
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
55
Commencement Forecast by Product Type Detached House Commencement Forecast
Other Dwellings (Townhomes & Apartments) Forecast
2022-24 Ave.
2025-27 Ave.
% Change
2022-24 Ave.
2025-27 Ave.
% Change
NSW
22,400
24,674
10.2%
NSW
25,327
29,550
16.7%
VIC
33,314
34,427
3.3%
VIC
21,417
26,173
22.2%
QLD
22,756
25,910
13.9%
QLD
14,151
18,443
30.3%
SA
9,494
10,526
10.9%
SA
3,042
3,591
18.0%
WA
15,933
20,410
28.1%
WA
3,059
4,889
59.8%
TAS
2,346
2,496
6.4%
TAS
147
182
24.1%
NT
479
513
7.1%
NT
94
245
161.0%
ACT
793
837
5.6%
ACT
2,953
3,431
16.2%
AUS
107,515
119,791
11.4%
AUS
70,190
86,503
23.2%
• Growth of +11.4% nationally, led by WA (+28.1%), with QLD (+13.9%) and SA (+10.9%) also above the national pace. VIC (+3.3%) is the softest of any state, though no state is forecast to decline.
• Strong forecast growth of +23.2% nationally, driven by a rebound from a low base and increased medium/high density supply. WA is the standout among larger states at +59.8%, while NT’s +161.0% reflects an extremely small base rather than a structural shift.
• Detached housing remains exposed to input cost volatility (materials, trades) and interest rate sensitivity, with global factors potentially constraining builder margins and slowing delivery.
• This segment faces the greatest risk, with feasibility highly sensitive. As a result, a portion of forecast supply, particularly the scale of WA’s projected uplift, may not materialise.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
56
Completions
Total Completions
38,182
-20.7% q/q; +0.8% y/y
Detached Houses
23,524
-18.6% q/q and -5.8% y/y
Other Dwellings (Medium/High Density)
14,658
-23.9% q/q and +13.4% y/y
• The quarterly pullback is broad-based across
• ACT (-23.9% y/y), TAS (-14.9% y/y) and WA
• ACT (+98.2% y/y) and SA (+21.2% y/y) lead
• Persistent supply constraints continue, with the
• Reflects the lagged impact of higher construction
• The segment sits only modestly above its three
both detached and higher-density completions, reversing the modest uplift seen in December. lagged impact of weak commencements and elevated construction costs through 2022-2024 still flowing through the pipeline.
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
(-8.8% y/y) recorded the largest falls, with QLD (+1.5% y/y) the only major state growing. costs, builder capacity constraints, and weaker commencements through 2023-2024.
annual growth, while NSW (-5.4% y/y) has swung into decline, a reversal from its December growth. year average, with no structural uplift yet and delivery still exposed to construction cost volatility and feasibility constraints.
57
Economic Outlook Michael Staedler General Manager Market Intelligence m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au
With the cash rate at 4.35% and a September hike now a real possibility rather than a distant risk, borrowing capacity is likely to remain suppressed for longer than the market expected at the start of the year. ANZ has now converged toward CBA’s view, forecasting a 4.3% fall in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, a similar 10.6% peak to trough outcome to CBA’s 10%. Westpac IQ remains the outlier at flat, looking increasingly like the exception. The new question is whether Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane hold up. This report’s data through June still shows those markets growing strongly. CBA’s most recent view breaks from that, projecting roughly 8%
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Six months ago, this was a two speed market. Now, looking ahead, the question is how broad the slowdown becomes.
falls across all three as the correction broadens beyond the two largest cities. This highlights the market’s uncertainty and should be closely monitored over the rest of the year. Investor demand should remain relatively elevated versus owner occupiers even as growth cools further, supported by tight rental markets, and the Budget’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes from July 2027 will likely keep reweighing activity toward new build products. On supply, construction costs and feasibility remain the binding constraint on medium and high density delivery, particularly in NSW and VIC, and a portion of the forecast pipeline is unlikely to be realised on schedule.
Focus for the rest of 2026 • The RBA’s September meeting, given markets are now pricing a strong probability of a hike, with November as the fallback.
• Auction clearance rates and listings volumes, the clearest early indicator of whether the correction is stabilising or deepening.
• Whether Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide hold up or ease back like the others, given the direct conflict between CBA’s newest call and the quarterly data in this report.
• Established dwelling lending, negative annually for the first time this cycle.
• Cotality’s monthly reports, now the fastestmoving signal available and running two months ahead of this report’s own quarterly price data.
• Medium and high-density approvals in NSW and VIC, where structural softness persists against QLD and WA’s growth.
58
Our Team Market Intelligence Michael Staedler
General Manager Market Intelligence m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au
Andrew Raponi
Senior Research Manager a.raponi@rpmgrp.com.au
Laurence Rao
Simon Brinkman
Rod Anderson
Peter Grant
Research Manager - VIC laurence@rpmgrp.com.au
Research Manager - QLD simon@rpmgrp.com.au
Executive, Sales and Marketing Leadership Paul McMahon
Luke Kelly
Chief Operating Officer paul@rpmgrp.com.au
National Managing Director Built Form luke@rpmgrp.com.au
National Managing Director Communities rod@rpmgrp.com.au
Joe Catanase
Imogene Schaefer
Greg Rankin
General Manager Marketing imogene@rpmgrp.com.au
General Manager New Business gregr@rpmgrp.com.au
Johnathon Driessen
Clinton Trezise
Peter Neale
James Matley
Tim Hyland
National Managing Director Transactions & Advisory joec@rpmgrp.com.au
Managing Director QLD clinton@rpmgrp.com.au
NATIONAL KEY ECONOMIC & PROPERTY INDICATORS SEPT 2026 | © RPM GROUP
Managing Director QLD petern@rpmgrp.com.au
Director Transactions & Advisory QLD & NSW james@rpmgrp.com.au
National Managing Director Business Development peter@rpmgrp.com.au
General Manager Communities johnathon@rpmgrp.com.au
National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au
59
Unlocking Australia’s Property Landscape For detailed insights or custom reporting, contact the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au
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