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VIC Greenfield Market Update July 2026
MARKET INTELLIGENCE © RPM GROUP
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Victorian Greenfield Land Snapshot - July 2026
Gross Lot Sales
Median Lot Price
Median Lot Size
886
$405,000
360sqm
Melbourne & Regional Growth Areas
-11.7%
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vs. June 2026
Melbourne Growth Areas
Melbourne Growth Areas
+0.7%
+0.3%
vs. June 2026
vs. June 2026
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Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales
Sales activity contracts further in July. New home demand diminished through July, evidenced by the 12% reduction in gross lot sales from the previous month. This led to metropolitan and regional growth areas recording their lowest combined monthly total for 2026, at just 886 gross lot sales. The cessation of end of financial year campaigns featuring rebates and discounts may have also led some prospective buyers to delay their purchasing decisions, given the heightened importance of overcoming the current challenging affordability environment. Purchaser sentiment remains fragile after three interest rate rises and escalating construction costs during 2026, with overall confidence in residential property further subdued by recent changes to residential investment taxation policy.
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
Jul-25
Aug-25
Sep-25
Oct-25
Nov-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
May-26
Jun-26
Jul-26
Source: RPM Market Intelligence
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Share of Sales by Growth Corridor
Northern lifts proportion of sales, although Western maintains dominant share. All three metropolitan growth corridors experienced a decline in lot sales over July. However, their respective share of total sales remained steady from the previous month for both Western (26%) and South East (19%), and improved to 24% for Northern, who recorded a shallower contraction in lot sales. More sizeable monthly falls in lot sales for Geelong and Ballarat saw their proportion of total sales reduce to 12% and 9%, respectively. The opposite occurred in Drouin & Warragul, with the region’s share doubling to 6% after a 61% increase in sales activity.
19% South East
24% Northern
Drouin & Warragul
2%
Macedon
3%
Bendigo
9%
Ballarat
26% Western
Percentages rounded to the nearest whole number
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6%
12% Geelong
Source: RPM Market Intelligence
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Gross Lot Sales, Median Lot Price, and Median Lot Size
Gross Sales
Melbourne’s median lot size edges higher, supporting lot prices. Melbourne’s median lot size of 360sqm in July was unchanged from the previous month and somewhat larger than the average of 350sqm recorded between September 2025 and May 2026. This underpinned 0.7% growth in its median lot price to $405,000. Median lot size in Geelong moved in the opposite direction, shrinking by a sizeable 6% to 387sqm, which drove a greater 9% contraction in its median lot price to $378,900.
Median Lot Price
Jul-26
% Change from Jun-26
% Change from Jul-25
South East
165
-12.2%
Northern
213
Western
Median Lot Size (sqm)
Jul-26
% Change from Jun-26
% Change from Jul-25
Jul-26
% Change from Jun-26
% Change from Jul-25
-35.8%
$482,000
5.9%
10.8%
392
12.0%
12.0%
-4.1%
-36.6%
$388,500
0.4%
5.3%
350
-2.9%
-0.1%
229
-11.2%
-33.8%
$394,000
1.5%
1.3%
373
3.0%
0.9%
Melbourne
607
-9.1%
-35.4%
$405,000
0.7%
2.0%
360
0.3%
-0.3%
Geelong
102
-37.0%
-5.6%
$378,900
-8.7%
4.4%
387
-6.3%
6.2%
Ballarat
84
-16.0%
154.5%
$305,000
10.3%
3.4%
420
-6.3%
-19.2%
Bendigo
23
27.8%
-56.6%
$266,000
-7.5%
1.1%
459
0.1%
-13.1%
Macedon
20
-16.7%
-16.7%
$444,500
45.1%
15.3%
728
42.2%
19.0%
Drouin & Warragul
50
61.3%
108.3%
$313,800
-1.9%
-0.4%
500
-2.0%
-0.8%
Total
886
-11.7%
-25.0%
$380,000
-2.3%
-1.3%
392
-0.3%
0.5%
Growth Area
Source: RPM Market Intelligence
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New Loan Commitments - Victoria Quarterly % Change in New Loan Commitments
Both owner occupier and investor loans decline in June quarter 2026. Although the Federal Budget was released halfway through May, new loan commitment data for the June quarter provides a good indication of investors’ initial response to changes to both capital gain tax and negative gearing, given these were widely anticipated leading up to the Budget release. In Victoria, new loan commitments to investors declined by 14.2% in June quarter, which was the largest quarterly fall since June quarter 2020 when activity was impacted by the onset of the pandemic and ensuing lockdowns, causing heightened uncertainty. As expected, investor demand contracted most significantly for existing dwellings, which were impacted most by the changes. Furthermore, negative sentiment and subsequently falling dwelling prices have weakened owner occupier activity, with new loan commitments to these purchasers declining by 5.6% in June quarter 2026.
10.0%
Owner Occupiers
Investors
8.8% 5.0%
0.0%
1.6%
-3.7% -5.0%
-5.6%
-6.6%
-10.1%
-10.0%
-12.4% -14.2% -15.0%
Construction of Dwellings
Newly Erected Dwellings
Existing Dwellings
Total New Loan Commitments
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Botanical
Top 10 Selling Projects July 2026
11 lots
Atherstone
Exford Waters
13 lots
14 lots
Olivine 19 lots
Peppercorn Hill 13 lots
Mason Quarter 20 lots
Windermere 11 lots
Ridgelea Somerley 18 lots
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14 lots Smiths Lane 15 lots
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Our Team RPM Market Intelligence provides extensive data and analysis of Australia’s east coast land market, coupled with overarching local and overseas economic and property indicators. Our experienced team of economists, property experts and GIS analysts, provide real-time market intelligence, analysis and strategic advice offered through a range of reports and presentations personalised to your specific requirements.
Get in touch with our team Michael Staedler
General Manager Market Intelligence m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au
Andrew Raponi
Senior Research Manager a.raponi@rpmgrp.com.au
Laurence Rao
Research Manager - VIC laurence@rpmgrp.com.au
Simon Brinkman
Research Manager - QLD simon@rpmgrp.com.au
Disclaimer: Although all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this document, RPM Group takes no responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained herein. It is recommended that all the information be verified if it is to be used for commercial purposes. © RPM GROUP
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