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What the market means for you BUYERS

INVESTORS

Conditions continue to favour buyers who are prepared and pre-approved. National annual growth has slowed to 2.9 per cent for houses and 2.0 per cent for units, and Sydney and Melbourne remain in annual decline, giving buyers more room to negotiate than at any point in the past two years. Bidder numbers per auction remain thin at 1.7, and clearance rates are sitting around 47.6 per cent, both well below year ago levels. That said, three rate rises through 2026 have reduced borrowing capacity for everyone, so affordability gains are not automatic. Buyers acting now are transacting in a market with genuinely reduced competition, at least for the moment.

Investors continue to navigate genuine uncertainty following the Federal Budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. Encouragingly, listing data shows no clear evidence of a broad investor sell off to date, with vendor numbers easing across the board rather than concentrated among investors. Rental growth remains a supportive factor, with national unit rents up 7.2 per cent annually and house rents up 3.1 per cent, while active rental listings continue to tighten, down around 3.6 per cent year on year. Regional markets, still recording annual growth of 7.1 to 7.8 per cent despite recent softening, may offer relatively better value than the larger capitals at this point in the cycle.

SELLERS

FIRST HOME BUYERS

Vendors face a market that rewards realistic pricing over ambition. New listing authorities fell again in August to 7,551, continuing a five month decline from March’s peak, suggesting fewer owners are testing the market than earlier in the year. Homes are taking longer to sell and buyer urgency remains subdued, reflected in bidder numbers and clearance rates still well down on 2025 and 2024. Properties priced in line with recent comparable sales, rather than earlier peak pricing, are moving faster. The modest lift in open home attendance since July is a positive early sign heading into spring, but it has not yet translated into stronger competition at auction.

The cheaper end of the market, particularly units, continues to offer the most accessible entry point, supported by the five per cent deposit scheme. Softer conditions in Sydney and Melbourne units, both now in annual decline, and more measured growth across most other capitals reduce some of the urgency that characterised earlier in the cycle. Weaker investor demand in this segment following the Budget changes means first home buyers face somewhat less competition for lower priced stock than in recent years. However, three interest rate rises in 2026 have reduced borrowing capacity, so the improvement in competition needs to be weighed against genuinely tighter finance conditions.

RENTERS Renters continue to face a tightening market despite the broader slowdown in sales. National unit rents rose 7.2 per cent over the year and house rents 3.1 per cent, with active rental listings down around 3.6 per cent on a year ago and continuing to ease month by month. Darwin and Perth remain standout markets for rental growth, while Melbourne offers the most modest increases among the capitals. Regional areas, particularly the Northern Territory and Western Australia, have recorded some of the steepest annual rent rises in this report. With supply continuing to contract, renters should expect competitive conditions to persist through the spring period.

LANDLORDS Conditions remain favourable for landlords, with rental supply continuing to tighten and rents rising across both houses and units nationally. Active rental listings fell to 697,083 in August, down from 705,831 in July and around 3.6 per cent lower than a year ago, supporting the sustained rent growth recorded this month. Regional markets, particularly the Northern Territory and Western Australia, have delivered some of the strongest annual rental gains, though smaller markets can see sharper swings on lower volumes. The softer sales market and continued Budget related uncertainty have not yet translated into a wave of investor listings, suggesting current landlords are largely holding rather than exiting.

August’s sales volumes came in at 28,841 house sales and 12,277 unit sales nationally, both a step down from July’s 29,127 and 12,667. This continues the gradual pull-back evident in the trailing twelve month averages, which now sit at 31,178 house sales and 12,753 unit sales, down from the recent high of around 33,300 house sales and 13,270 unit sales reached late last year and into March. Against August last year, monthly volumes are down more materially, house sales off by around 10.5 per cent from 32,224 and units down close to 5.7 per cent from 13,016. The rolling averages show a steadier, more gradual easing than the monthly figures, consistent with a market cooling in an orderly fashion rather than falling away sharply, though there is little in this month’s data yet to suggest volumes have found a base.

National dwelling values continue to soften on an annual basis, though the pace of the pullback is now clearly slowing rather than accelerating. The median house price across Australia sits at $1 million, down 1.1 per cent over the month, with annual growth easing sharply to 2.9 per cent, a marked deceleration from the pace recorded earlier in the cycle. Units are faring somewhat better, holding at $740,000 nationally, down a more modest 0.5 per cent over the month with annual growth of 2.0 per cent. This softer growth profile lines up closely with the easing in sales volumes above, fewer transactions and reduced buyer urgency are showing through in both price and turnover data together. Three rate rises through 2026 and continued uncertainty around the Budget’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes remain the dominant forces behind this slowdown, though recent inflation readings have stayed comparatively steady, a genuine bright spot for the outlook.

The premium capitals continue to lead the correction. Sydney’s median house price sits at $1.62 million, down 5.8 per cent over the year despite a small 0.3 per cent monthly rise, while Melbourne has slipped to $920,000, down 5.7 per cent annually and 1.4 per cent over the month. Canberra has also moved into a steeper annual decline, down 2.0 per cent to $1 million. The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, both previously recording solid annual gains, have now turned negative, down 0.8 per cent annually to $1.37 million and $1.24 million respectively. Perth and Darwin remain in positive annual territory but momentum has eased considerably, up 3.8 per cent to $970,000 and 4.2 per cent to $700,000, well down on the double digit growth recorded earlier in the cycle. Adelaide continues to grow modestly, up 1.7 per cent annually to $950,000, while Brisbane and Hobart are essentially flat, up 0.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively. The broad based deceleration across almost every capital, including the previously resilient Perth and Darwin markets, underlines how far this cycle has turned this year.

Unit markets are showing the same pattern of slowing annual growth, if from a lower base. Perth remains the strongest performer among the units, up 6.3 per cent annually to $680,000, though this is a marked easing from the double digit pace recorded earlier in the year. Darwin and Brisbane followed a similar trajectory, up 5.5 per cent to $430,000 and 4.4 per cent to $790,000 respectively. Adelaide added 4.2 per cent annually to $660,000, while the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast slowed to 2.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent. Sydney and Melbourne units remain the weakest performers, down 1.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent annually to $860,000 and $630,000, with Canberra now also in negative annual territory at minus 0.3 per cent. Across the major cities combined, the median unit price sits at $750,000, with annual growth reduced to just 0.9 per cent, a considerable slowdown from the growth recorded across most of 2026 to date, and a reminder that units have not been immune to the broader cooling even where prices remain more resilient than houses.

Regional markets have also lost momentum, though most remain in positive annual territory. The combined regional median sits at $780,000, up 7.8 per cent over the year despite a 0.4 per cent monthly fall. Regional South Australia recorded the strongest annual growth at 7.2 per cent to $530,000, followed closely by regional Western Australia at 7.1 per cent to $690,000, both considerably slower than the double digit gains recorded earlier this year. Regional Queensland grew 4.8 per cent annually to $780,000, with regional Victoria and regional Tasmania close behind at 4.6 per cent and 4.4 per cent. Regional New South Wales has slowed the most, up just 1.1 per cent annually to $830,000, while regional Northern Territory is now barely moving, up 0.7 per cent to $510,000. Every regional market recorded a monthly fall in the latest data, reinforcing that the softening evident in the capitals through the year has now filtered into regional Australia as well, even as annual growth generally remains ahead of the capital city aggregate.

Regional unit markets tell a similar story of decelerating but still generally positive annual growth. The combined regional median sits at $670,000, up 7.1 per cent over the year, though down 0.2 per cent over the month. Regional Western Australia remains the strongest performer at 8.3 per cent annually to $520,000, followed by regional Victoria and regional Tasmania at 4.7 per cent and 4.5 per cent. Regional Queensland has slowed to 3.8 per cent annual growth, with a median of $730,000, while regional New South Wales and regional Northern Territory have eased to 1.3 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively. Regional South Australia’s unit series was not available this month due to a data gap. Nationally, the regional unit median of $670,000 sits well below the $750,000 recorded across the major cities, continuing to support demand from buyers seeking better value outside the capitals.

National sales listing volumes have seen little change over the past month. Active listings on a 12 month rolling basis sat at 600,619 in August, down marginally from 601,828 in July and easing back from the 2026 high of 609,287 reached in April. New listings held at 511,853, essentially flat on July’s 511,909, having levelled off after climbing steadily from January’s low of 491,831. Against a year ago, active stock remained slightly higher, up from 598,085 in August 2025, while new listings are actually a touch lower than the 496,795 recorded then. This stability suggests properties are continuing to move through the market, whether sold or withdrawn, at a pace broadly keeping up with the flow of new stock, rather than a backlog building, even as buyer urgency remains subdued. Genuine uncertainty around the Budget’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes continues to sit in the background, but there is still no clear evidence of a broad investor sell off in the listing data.

New listing authorities, a useful leading indicator of future volumes, fell again in August to 7,551, down from 7,891 in July and continuing a decline that has now run for five straight months since the March peak of 9,661. That peak was itself a genuine standout, well ahead of 8,413 in March 2025 and 7,765 in March 2024, so the fall since represents a marked reversal from what had been a strong start to the year for vendor activity. On a year-on-year basis August’s 7,551 sits below both 8,436 recorded in August 2025 and 8,991 in August 2024. Unlike open home attendance, which has shown early tentative signs of stabilising, listing authorities have not yet turned, and this remains a series worth watching closely as we move into the spring selling season, since it typically leads new listing volumes by several weeks.

Open home attendance has shown tentative signs of improvement over the past six to eight weeks, even if the very latest reading has eased slightly. After bottoming out at 2.1 attendees per home in mid-July, the four week rolling average climbed steadily to 2.2 by late August, its best level since early in the year, stabilising at 2.2 in the week to 5 September. This remains a fraction of prior years’ equivalent readings, with the same week last year sitting at 4.0 and the year before at 3.3, so attendance is still running at roughly half historical norms. Even so, the gradual lift through winter into spring is a genuinely encouraging development after the steep, near unbroken decline recorded through the first half of 2026, and is consistent with the seasonal pickup in buyer activity typically seen at this time of year.

Active bidder numbers at auction remain close to the lows recorded through the year, sitting at 1.7 per property in the latest reading. This follows a brief improvement to around 1.9 in August that has not been sustained, and continues to compare unfavourably with the equivalent point in both 2025 and 2024, when active bidders averaged closer to 3.0 and 2.6 respectively. The thinner pool of bidders remains consistent with the broader pattern of reduced buyer urgency seen across this report, though the choppiness in recent readings, rising then falling back, suggests conditions may be stabilising at a low level rather than continuing to deteriorate outright.

The auction day clearance rate has followed a choppy path since the winter low. After bottoming out at 47.0 per cent in the week to 18 July, clearance rates lifted steadily through late July and into August, peaking at 52.1 per cent in the week to 15 August, before easing back over the past three readings to 50.3 per cent, then 49.3 per cent, and 47.6 per cent in the week to 5 September. This remains well down on

the equivalent week in both prior years, with the same week sitting at 74.1 per cent in 2025 and 62.9 per cent in 2024, a gap of close to 27 and 15 percentage points respectively. The mid-August bounce has clearly not held, and with the latest reading back near the July trough, this looks more like a market oscillating in a low band than one that has genuinely turned a corner.

Capital city house rents remain firm, though annual growth has eased. The combined major cities median holds at $700 a week, unchanged over the month, with annual growth of 6.1 per cent. Darwin recorded the strongest monthly growth at 6.7 per cent, lifting to $800 and 11.1 per cent annually, the largest dollar gain of any capital at $80 over the year. Sydney remains the most expensive market for house rents at $845, up 1.8 per cent over the month and 7.0 per cent annually. Perth and Adelaide both grew a healthy 7.1 per cent and 6.6 per cent annually to $750 and $650, while Hobart added 4.2 per cent to $625. Canberra fell 2.0 per cent over the month, though annual growth remains solid at 5.8 per cent to $735. Melbourne remains the softest major rental market, up just 1.7 per cent annually to $590. Nationally, the median house rent sits at $670, unchanged over the month with annual growth easing to 3.1 per cent.

Unit rents across the capitals have also cooled somewhat on an annual basis, though the major cities median holds steady at $680 a week, up 4.6 per cent over the year. Perth continues to record strong annual growth of 10.8 per cent to $720, alongside a solid 2.9 per cent monthly rise. Sydney remains the most expensive capital for unit rents at $770, up 2.7 per cent over the month and 6.9 per cent annually. Hobart recorded annual growth of 8.6 per cent to $543 despite a 1.3 per cent monthly fall, while Darwin held at $650, up 8.3 per cent annually. Brisbane and Adelaide posted more modest annual gains of 4.8 per cent and 4.5 per cent, while Melbourne and Canberra were the softest performers, up 4.3 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively. Nationally, the median unit rent reached $670, up 3.1 per cent over the month and 7.2 per cent over the year, continuing to outpace house rent growth in percentage terms.

Regional house rents recorded another strong month, led once again by the smaller northern markets. Regional Northern Territory rents jumped 25.9 per cent over the year to $730, a $150 increase and the largest annual dollar gain in this report, aided by a further 2.8 per cent monthly rise. Regional Western Australia also posted strong growth, up 15.4 per cent annually to $750, a $100 increase, with a solid 4.2 per cent monthly gain. Regional Tasmania grew 10.6 per cent annually to $520, while regional New South Wales and regional Queensland recorded more modest annual gains of 6.7 per cent and 6.2 per cent. Regional South Australia fell 3.0 per cent over the month, though annual growth remains 6.7 per cent to $480. Regional Victoria was the softest performer, up 4.0 per cent annually to $520. Nationally, the combined regional median sits at $620, below the $670 median across the capitals, reflecting the continued gap in rental costs between regional Australia and the major cities.

Regional unit rents were more mixed this month. Regional Western Australia recorded the strongest growth, up 21.2 per cent annually to $685, a $120 increase, alongside a solid 5.4 per cent monthly gain. Regional Tasmania and regional Queensland both grew strongly, up 7.1 per cent and 8.9 per cent annually to $450 and $675 respectively. Regional South Australia rose 6.0 per cent annually to $355, while regional Victoria added 6.3 per cent annually to $425 despite a 1.2 per cent monthly fall. Regional New South Wales grew a more modest 2.9 per cent annually to $540. Regional Northern Territory was the notable outlier, falling 16.0 per cent annually and 12.2 per cent over the month to $395, a reminder that smaller regional markets can see sharp swings on lower transaction volumes. The combined regional median held at $550, unchanged over the month with annual growth of 5.8 per cent, remaining well below the $670 median recorded nationally.

Rental listing activity continues to ease gradually. Active rental listings on a 12 month rolling basis sit at 697,083 in August, down from 705,831 in July and continuing a steady decline that has run through most of 2026, from a January reading of 718,310. Against a year ago, active stock is down around 3.6 per cent from the 723,471 recorded in August 2025. New rental listings show the same pattern, at 646,275 in August compared with 652,178 in July and 659,750 back in January, a fall of close to 3.2 per cent on the 668,043 recorded

in August last year. The decline has been gradual and consistent rather than sharp, month on month drops of roughly 1 to 1.5 per cent recurring through the year. This ongoing tightening in rental supply lines up closely with the continued growth recorded in weekly rents across both houses and units, and suggests conditions are likely to remain favourable for landlords in the near term.

The value of unconditional sales fell to $4.86 billion in August, down from $5.09 billion in July and considerably below the $7.48 billion peak recorded back in March. The number of unconditional sales told the same story, easing to 4,881 in August from 5,180 in July, continuing the steady decline from March’s high of 6,694. The 12 month rolling trend confirms this is not just a one month blip, with rolling sales value down to $6.32 billion from $6.46 billion in July, and rolling

volume down to 5,944 from 6,067, both now tracking lower for several consecutive months. Against August last year, the value gap is stark, $4.86 billion compared with $6.53 billion in August 2025, a fall of close to 25.6 per cent. Unconditional sales figures are volatile and subject to reporting lags, but the consistency of the decline across both the monthly and rolling figures points to a genuine, ongoing cooling in settled transaction activity rather than a temporary dip.

METHODOLOGY

Pricing data Price data is sourced from our research partners at Neoval Research Group, providing comprehensive coverage across all major Australian capital cities and regional markets. Price movements are calculated using median values to ensure accurate representation of typical market performance.

three years, providing crucial insight into future supply trends and vendor sentiment before properties enter the active market. Auction and sales data Auction performance metrics are derived from Ray White’s auction database, covering all Ray White auction activities

Why median?

across Australia.

The median provides a reliable measure of the “typical”

Bidder activity: monthly data tracking both registered bidders

market price by identifying the middle value when all sales are

per property and active bidders per auction over the last

arranged in order. Unlike arithmetic averages, which can be

three years, providing insights into buyer engagement levels

distorted by extreme high or low sales, the median represents

and competitive intensity.

the price point where half the properties sold for more and half sold for less. This methodology is particularly valuable when analysing property markets as it reduces the impact of outliers – such as exceptionally expensive waterfront properties or distressed sales – providing a truer reflection of what most buyers and sellers experience in the market. The median effectively captures the centre of the market distribution, making it an ideal measure for tracking genuine price movements over time. Tasmania exception: Due to licensing restrictions, median

Clearance rates: monthly auction clearance rates calculated as the percentage of properties sold at auction relative to total properties offered, tracked over three years to identify seasonal patterns and market strength indicators. Total unconditional sales: Ray White’s internal sales data tracking the total dollar value of all unconditional property sales completed each month over the last three years. This metric provides insight into both transaction volumes and the impact of price appreciation on overall market value.

data from Neoval is not available for Tasmania. For Tasmanian

Temporal framework

markets, we utilise the Median Sales AVM Value from

All data series are presented on a monthly basis covering the

Cotality, which represents the median (50th percentile) estimated sales value of all properties based on the hedonic imputation method. Listing data National property listing volumes are sourced from Domain, Australia’s leading property portal, providing comprehensive coverage of new property listings across all markets. National listings: presented as monthly counts spanning the last three years (2023-2025) to identify seasonal patterns and year-over-year trends in property supply. Major city and regional listings: current month data is presented with both monthly percentage change (comparison to previous month) and annual percentage change (comparison to same month in previous year) to highlight both short-term fluctuations and longer-term supply trends. Listing authorities: Ray White’s proprietary forward-looking metric representing properties where vendors have signed listing agreements but properties have not yet been marketed. This data is presented as monthly counts over

three-year period from 2023 to 2025, enabling identification of seasonal patterns, cyclical trends, and year-over-year comparisons. This timeframe captures the full interest rate cycle from peak rates through to the current cutting cycle, providing context for current market dynamics. All data sources represent substantial market coverage but may not capture 100 per cent of market activity. Price data from Neoval provides broad market representation, while auction and sales data specifically reflects Ray White’s market participation. Regional variations in data coverage may exist, with metropolitan markets generally providing more comprehensive data than smaller regional centres.

R AY W H I T E E C O N O M I C S T E A M

NERIDA CONISBEE

VANESSA RADER

ATOM GO TIAN

Chief Economist

Head of Research

Economist

ANITA VENKATESH

PAULO SUMULONG

KEVIN WANG

Content Strategy and Production Lead

Data Scientist

Content Production Coordinator

A B O U T R AY W H I T E Ray White stands at the forefront of real estate in Australia and New Zealand. Founded in regional Queensland in 1902 and still owned and led by the White family, the network spans almost 1,000 offices. Powered by a collective of more than 13,500 members, the group achieved over 100,000 property sales last year, exceeding $103 billion in value. Combining regional reach with local market expertise, the group continues to deliver market-leading results. Under Managing Director Dan White’s leadership, operations extend across residential, commercial, and rural property, as well as hotels, marine, property management, and investment advisory. Holding strong momentum and commanding market share, the group called 39,035 auctions across Australia and New Zealand last year, reflecting Ray White’s championing of open, competitive sale processes to elevate outcomes for clients.