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Accelerate new train orders and low carbon network upgrades
A lack of train orders over recent years has placed jobs and UK rail manufacturing capability at risk. The present rate of rail decarbonisation will not achieve net zero by 2050. There is no comprehensive pathway for decarbonising rail to maximise its strengths as a low carbon mode of transport which supports modal shift and as an enabler of economic growth.
Securing jobs, immediate economic benefit and carbon reduction It is economically and politically irresponsible to risk the loss of train building capability in the UK. There is a long-term demand for trains in the UK with an order book in the region of £3.5 billion over the next decade. Simply replacing the current fleet of 15,0001 vehicles with a life expectancy of 35 to 40 years implies an annual average replacement rate of around 400 vehicles. With an estimated new vehicle cost of around £2.5 million, this is a £1 billion industry. Demand is only likely to grow, as shown by a recent forecast of between 37% to 97% increase in passenger demand by 20502. Until June 2024, there have been only two orders for new trains since 2020: The first was the 54 trains for HS2 which will not be in production until at least 2026, and the second was a small 10 train order for LNER. The confirmation of 10 new trains for the Elizabeth line in June 2024 helps secure the short-term future of one manufacturing site, however a long-term pipeline is required to guarantee the future of the UK’s broader rolling stock manufacturing capacity and the associated highly skilled jobs. In December 2023, the Government published a high-level pipeline of rolling stock procurement opportunities although the document lacked detailed timelines. Some of these orders could be battery trains which could provide a quick win and fast track to rail decarbonisation.
“Long-term pipeline is required to guarantee the future of the UK’s broader rolling stock manufacturing capacity.”