Employer Engagement Consultant, Mark Gallagher, explores the evidence behind graduate outcomes and the evolving impact of AI on early careers. There has been no shortage of commentary recently suggesting that AI will replace graduate jobs, that the graduate labour market is in freefall, or that university is no longer a sensible choice for young people. These narratives are gaining traction, particularly in a cost‑of‑living crisis where students and families are rightly thinking hard about affordability. Our own Careers Service relies heavily on data from the annual Graduate Outcomes survey (UK wide), research carried out by trusted organisations including the Graduate Futures Institute and Institute of Student Employers to help shape our work with students. When we look at the evidence – we see a different picture.
Graduate‑level employment continues to grow New Annual Population Survey data shows that across 2025, the number of people working in professional‑level roles in the UK grew by 411,500, rising to 53.2% of the workforce. The most recent Graduate Outcomes data (2024) continues to show that most graduates move quickly into skilled work, even in a slowdown (which we are experiencing at present). The recent Institute for Student Employers 2026 Student Development survey (large graduate recruiters surveyed) suggests that AI is reshaping, not replacing, early‑career roles – demand for human skills is rising, not falling. This is not what a collapsing graduate labour market looks like. The challenge ahead is not an oversupply of graduates – it is ensuring we have enough people with the right capabilities to meet evolving demand.