Employer Engagement Consultant, Mark Gallagher, explores the evidence behind graduate outcomes and the evolving impact of AI on early careers.
There has been no shortage of commentary recently suggesting that AI will replace graduate jobs, that the graduate labour market is in freefall, or that university is no longer a sensible choice for young people. These narratives are gaining traction, particularly in a cost of living crisis where students and families are rightly thinking hard about affordability.
Our own Careers Service relies heavily on data from the annual Graduate Outcomes survey (UK wide), research carried out by trusted organisations including the Graduate Futures Institute and Institute of Student Employers to help shape our work with students. When we look at the evidence – we see a different picture.
Graduate
‑level employment continues to grow
New Annual Population Survey data shows that across 2025, the number of people working in professional level roles in the UK grew by 411,500, rising to 53.2% of the workforce. The most recent Graduate Outcomes data (2024) continues to show that most graduates move quickly into skilled work, even in a slowdown (which we are experiencing at present). The recent Institute for Student Employers 2026 Student Development survey (large graduate recruiters surveyed) suggests that AI is reshaping, not replacing, early‑career roles – demand for human skills is rising, not falling. This is not what a collapsing graduate labour market looks like. The challenge ahead is not an oversupply of graduates – it is ensuring we have enough people with the right capabilities to meet evolving demand.
Graduate outcomes remain consistently strong
The latest Graduate Outcomes survey shows that around 60% of employed graduates are working in highly skilled roles 15 months after finishing their degree, and graduate unemployment remains low at around 6%, less than half the youth unemployment rate.
Longer‑term data reinforces this picture: lifetime employment rates stand at 88% for graduates compared with 68% for non graduates, and earnings between ages 23 and 31 rise by 72% for graduates versus 31% for those whose highest qualification is A‑levels. Considered together, these are long‑term, stable trends.
AI is reshaping work — not replacing graduates
AI is certainly reshaping early‑career work, but the evidence from the Institute of Student Employers shows it is not replacing graduates. Their 2026 insights point to a 15% dip in graduate hiring over two years, but employers are clear that this reflects a cyclical slowdown, not a structural collapse. What they are seeing instead is a shift in the nature of entry‑level roles: AI is taking on routine tasks, while human skills – communication, judgement, adaptability and ethical reasoning – are becoming more important, not less.
I recently attended a presentation by Gareth Hetherington from the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, who highlighted that improvements in AI driven productivity may help offset some of the economic pressures Northern Ireland will face in the coming decades. His point was clear: AI is not a threat to early‑career roles –it may be part of the solution.
Higher education remains a solid choice — but affordability matters
It is positive that young people are carefully considering their options. University is not the only route – but it remains a strong one with consistently better long term outcomes. The broader challenge is that the UK’s weaker economic performance since Brexit, local economic inactivity, and chronic underfunding of higher education mean students must think harder about whether they can afford to go to university.
Northern Ireland’s demographic trend is stark
NISRA projections show that by the mid 2030s, natural population change turns negative – deaths outnumber births. The number of young people leaving school, college and university is already falling and will continue to fall for decades.
This means:
Talent shortages are not temporary – they are the new normal. Retention, progression and workplace culture matter more than ever. Employers will need more graduates, not fewer, simply because there will be fewer people.
The question for employers is not whether we need graduates – but more so how we secure the skilled talent required in a shrinking labour market. Source materials
NISRA - 2021-based Interim Population Projections for Northern Ireland
Institute of Student Employers Student Development Survey 2026
City AM - A generation risks being put off university just when we need graduates most Charlie Ball – LinkedIn
