Dollars & Cents
By John Dickie, based on an interview with Benjamin Tal, CIBC Deputy Chief Economist
Many features of the 2026 economy do not fit past norms.
US Energy intensity
Energy intensity of US economy (1000Btu/2015$ GDP)
The efficiency paradox
As technology increases energy efficiency, the total consumption of energy increases rather than decreases. In other words, improved efficiency lowers costs, encouraging higher usage.
Source: EIA, CIBC
Source: EIU, CIBC
Oil shock could add a half percent to inflation in coming months Food prices – already 20% higher than the trend
Source: BLS, CIBC
Source: BLS, CIBC
Hiring rate has plummeted (l), and is below what pre-Covid norms would imply given unemployment rate (r)
Source: BLS, CIBC
Source: BLS, CIBC
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, CIBC
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, CIBC
Source: Census Bureau, CIBC
Source: Census Bureau, CIBC
Source: BLS, CIBC
Source: HU, CIBC
Dollars & Cents
By John Dickie, based on an interview with Benjamin Tal, CIBC Deputy Chief Economist
Canada escaped broad US tariffs, but targeted sectors still hit hard
• Canada was largely protected by the Canada, US, Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)
• The CUSMA renegotiations will be crucial
• Can Canada solve the tariff problems in metals, autos, aircraft manufacturing and lumber, while keeping the broad CUSMA protections?
• What will Canada and the US agree concerning the dairy and poultry sector irritants?
Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, CIBC
Other features of the economy
• How will the choice of a new aircraft for the RCAF play in the CUSMA negotiations, if at all?
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Underlying inflation back near 2% prior to this year’s oil shock… Easy come, easy go
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Aspects of the housing markets
National benchmark home price close to preCovid trendline
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Source: CREA, CIBC
Source: CREA, CIBC
Source: CREA, CIBC
ABOUT THE SOURCE
Source: Lauster and Bergmann, StatCan, CIBC
Benjamin Tal is the Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets. Well-known for his ground-breaking research on all major sectors of the real estate market, on credit markets, and on business economic conditions, Benjamin frequently sets key elements of the public policy agenda. He is also a big believer in the value of a strong residential rental sector. Last year CFAA changed its name to Rental Housing Canada (“RHC”). Benjamin is continuing to speak at the RHC national housing conference. RHC thanks Benjamin for his support.