Unlocking Housing Supply in Greater Brisbane
Overview and Key Findings
Housing supply is an ongoing challenge in Greater Brisbane, as the residential construction industry continues to play “catch up”with increasing demand and projected population growth. Post-COVID 2021was a key year in this balance, where population growth increased significantly and residential construction plateaued. Resurrection of residential projects is evident in 2023; however, the momentum did not hold in 2024and 2025. The projected dwelling needs in Greater Brisbane by 2046 outpaces planned ready-to-sell stock significantly, putting Greater Brisbane in a continuous state of being structurally undersupplied. The residential construction sector continues to face a myriad of challenges. Thatsaid, opportunities exist, with local and state governments releasing programs such as the Land Activation Program, the Residential Activation Fund and others. This paper identifies several potential sites, those that the authorities may have missed; and evaluates how these sites can add to the housing supply in Greater Brisbane.
Greater Brisbane Population and Housing Needs
Dwelling Approvals vs Population Growth
$10,000,000,000
$9,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000
$7,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$1,000,000,000
• 2021markedaturning pointbetweendemand andsupply,aspopulation growthoutpacedsupply.
• Newsupplypeakedin 2024; however, population growth has accelerated sharply since 2021.
• In2025,newresidential constructionhasfallen from2024,butpopulation growthremainselevated.
• Growthpatterninsupply provedtobechallenging.
• Greater Brisbane remains inastagnantstructurally undersuppliedposition.
Source: *Departmentof State Development, Infrastructure, LocalGovernment and planning; #Cordell Connect as of February 2026
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
• Noise corridor - rail
• Open space & community facilities zoning will require design, height and intensity limits
• Environmental overlays (flood, fire, ecological protection)
• Zoned as a specialised centre
• Commonwealth defence land zoned under special purpose
• Limited transport structure
as
• Geebung Station
• Geebung State School
• Geebung local shopping centre
• Norman Park Train Station
• Carindale Shopping Centre
• Boondall Railway Station
• Accessibility to Gateway
• Greenbank State School
• Greenbank IGA
• Greenbank RLFC
• Chandler Sports Precinct
• M1 Motorway
Current Challenges in SEQ Residential
Construction Sector
• Highcostsofinfrastructureprovisioncreates a financial constraint in residential project delivery.
• Localcommunityoppositionto infill development.
• Planningconstraintsandlayeredoverlays are causing slow approvals and delaying access to available and developable land.
• Housingconstructionmaterialcostsremain above pre-pandemic levels, impacting financial viability.
• Accesstoandcostoffinance(i.e interest rates).
• Shortageinlaboursupplyandlackofskilled workers is putting increasing pressure onthe delivery of ongoing and future construction projects.
• Averageproductivityoutputperworkerhas dramatically declined, causing delays.
• Inefficientpaceofprojectapprovalsis slowing down project milestones and delivery time.
• Servicedandrealisticallyavailablelandsupplyis limited, causing constraints onhousing delivery.
• Processes, paperwork requirement, and governance structures are inconsistentacrossgovernments.
Moving
• Repurposing of many obsolete and/orabandoned buildings, vacant sites and underutilised areas.
• BrisbaneCityCouncil(BCC)is currently reviewing Low-Medium Density Residential Zones (14% of BCC’s total residential land), to increase housing supply and density. This includes a reduction of minimum block sizes to 120m2from 260m2 and increasing building height to 3-4 storeys from the current height of 2-3.
• TheLandActivationProgram(LAP)is a Queensland State Government initiative toidentify, unlock and release underutilised government land for housing. This will accelerate approvals under the Economic Development Act 2012.EDQ released the first tranche of sites to the market earlier this year.
• TheResidentialActivationFund(RAF)is a state government grants program which provides funding for trunk and essential infrastructure to unlock residential growth. The second round is currently open.
• ShapingSEQ2023- is a regional scale strategic land use and infrastructure planning document identifying future and targeted growth areas, establishing the SEQ Urban Footprint. It is currently under review.
• Brisbane City Council dominates overallsupplyand contributes the highest volume inallpropertytypes
• This is still not enough; as Brisbane City Council’s annual projected populationgrowthisapproximately 72,000personsperyear.
• Mostoftheplannedstockareunits andtownhouses,highlightingthe continuousundersupplyofstandalonedwellings/houses.
• Negative effect onaffordability, as property prices will continue to rise. Theunitmarketwillseeincreased pressure,ashousebuyerspivottheir budgettounits; mostly due tothe lack of available houses.
• IpswichandLogan,traditionally seen as the more affordable option, will see many local buyers priced out.
Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo Chief Economist
AstiMardiasmo@prd.com.au +61 7 3026 3366
7 3166 0476