Sector Pulse
Australia & New Zealand Retail September | 2025
Sector Pulse
Retail: Valuations remain strong and size matters Warwick Face
Kieran Wallis
Partner
Partner
p +61 7 3222 8444 e wface@pitcherpartners.com.au
p +61 7 3222 8444 e kwallis@pitcherpartners.com.au
Listed retail businesses continue to trade at exceptional multiples despite a volatile reporting season, as major players experience steady sales momentum and seek consolidation to drive growth. Pitcher Partners expect that M&A will continue to be a lever for sector participants looking to accelerate growth to supplement organic initiatives.
Industry Outlook:
Trading Multiples Median
10.0x EBITDA (LTM)
• Despite global uncertainty, Australian retail sales are expected to grow in 2025, driven by easing inflation, potential rate cuts, and resilient consumer demand. • Retail turnover (in Qld) rose 5.5% (YoY) to $7.85b in June 2025, the second-highest growth amongst all states, driven by strong sales in the food and househould goods category.
Deal Volumes: • 514 transactions were reported globally in 2025 August LTM. • 601 transactions globally in the comparable period to August 2024. • 716 deals on a 10-year average basis.
Transactions in Last Twelve Months
514
Deal Values: Disclosed ANZ values for 2025 August LTM totalled approx. $476m, versus a total transaction value of $3.8 billion (prior comparable period).
M&A Highlights over Last Twelve Months: • March 2025: Dollarama’s acquisition of The Reject Shop brings together two value-driven retailers. Building on its success in Canada and Latin America, Dollarama sees Australia as a key growth opportunity in what it views as an underpenetrated market. • June 2025: Private equity backed Amart acquired Freedom Furniture, forming a retail group with 120+ stores and ~$1 billion in sales, as it eyes a potential ASX listing next year.
Largest Transaction Last Twelve Months
$415m