MAY/22
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY.........................................................................2 IMPORTANT DATA.................................................................................3 CONFIDENCE INDEXES..........................................................................4
MAIN FACTS Two years after the Coronavirus pandemic outbreak, when the situation already seemed to be relatively overcome in a great part of the world, new restrictions emerged, more specifically in China, lockdowns in important cities, as it’s the case in Shanghai. Although Brazil is returning to its normality, considering the elimination of the mask use necessity and the circulation without restrictions, the effects from the shutdown in companies and the delays in the country’s ports will result in detrimental consequences for the Brazilian economy, regarding the inflation and the economic growth. Adding to this negative scenario there is the war in Ukraine, which doesn’t seem to be close to an end, keeping the pressure on prices of main commodities. This risk increase and the global instability have impacted on the currencies worldwide and Real follows the same tendency. There was a new devaluation in the Brazilian currency, exceeding once again R$ 5 per dollar, even with the Central Bank increasing once more the basic interest rate, SELIC, by one percentage point, from 11.75% to 12.75% a year. There is an inclination for new increases, with a projection of reaching near 14% a year by the end of the year. The interest raise is a political way of trying to hold inflation. However, the increase in prices is global, in other words, SELIC presents a reduced interference power in solving the issue. And in Brazil, the official inflation accelerated to 1.62% in March, and despite April’s downturn, it proceeds with a variation higher than 1% a month, with 1.06%, the highest monthly variation since 1996. The 12-month accumulated inflation is 12.13%, according to IBGE. The highlight has come from the fuel segment, a raise in the gas and diesel oil prices, reflecting in a direct influence in the consumers’ wallets when filling up their car tanks, and in an indirect influence given that the highway shipping is becoming more expensive and impacting the prices in the supermarkets’ shelves for example, a group that has also pushed up the general inflation. Soy and wheat derived products, like soy oil and bread, have also had a steep rise for the consumer as a result of the commodities in expansion. The variables inflation and high interests have limited the consuming capacity of families. Adding to this, there is a record level of families presenting overdue bills, three in every ten Brazilian families according to the National Confederation of Commerce (CNC). Such that commerce sales have been weaker than expected. Regarding the accumulated value from January to March, the raise was of 1.1%. Thus, in a way to encourage and offer better conditions, so the families can afford to pay their overdue debts, the federal government took two relevant measures: the release of part of the Fund for Guaranteed Time of Service (FGTS) and anticipated the
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13th-month salary to retired people and pensioners. For the FGTS Fund, until mid-May, R$ 124 billion were withdrawn (nearly US$ 25 bi). This amount represents slightly more than 5% of the total commerce sales. However, it is known that not all this resource will be destined to commerce, a part of it will be used for paying debts and day to day bills. Anyhow, it will result in a consumption and a sales traction effect in the short term. Greater movement in commerce will contribute to heating up the industry once again, which accumulated a downfall of 4.5% in the first quarter. As for the service sector, it moves away from the general tendency of a weaker economy and moves forward in expansion, 9.4% higher in the first three months, given that March was the best result for the month since 2015. Entering the service segment, tourism is the highlight regarding numbers. According to the survey by FecomercioSP, the sector profited 44.6 billion reais in the first quarter this year, 27.5% higher compared to the same period last year. The activities that are most influencing the tourism performance are the air transport (72.6%), and accommodation and food (25.9%). Another area of the economy that presented good results is the agribusiness area, boosted by the rise in commodities prices in the international market. The grain harvest in Brazil, for instance, will be record, reaching 262 million tons. Despite the costs increasing as well, the picture is still favorable, encouraging investments and job generation, stimulating regional economies. The Brazilian economy is going through distinct moments depending on the sector and the economic variable. In general, the inflation and the considerable interest are keeping the economy from a higher growth. The industry embitters consecutive retractions, and the commerce sector keeps moving slowly. On the other hand, the job generation is still positive and consistent, but not enough to restore the families’ income because of the inflation loss. And the agribusiness and tourism sectors, for example, benefit for different reasons and register strong raises. Even though there is a slow recovery of the Brazilian economy this year, it’s necessary to keep alert with possible new rises in interests in the United States. In case there is a strong curb over there to hold the inflation, the highest in 40 years, the whole world will feel the echoes from this and Brazil, even more, for being a more weakened economy and being in crisis since 2015. IMPORTANT DATA: April’s inflation was 1.06% driven by two groups: Food and Beverages (2.06%) and Transport (1.91%). These sectors were responsible for 80% of the rise in the month’s general index. Regarding the food sector, the inflation is spread around 70% of consumption items. About transport, gas increased 2.48%, and this is the item that has the greatest influence in the inflation indicator. n
Retail sales grew 4.5% in March in the annual comparison. Only one of the analyzed groups by IBGE didn’t have a growth within the month. The spotlight goes to the clothing and shoe sector with an annual raise of 81.3% and to the car sales (7.3%). n
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Employment data in March points out the creation of 136 thousand new formal job positions, accumulating 615.2 thousand in the first quarter. While the service sector leads the job generation in the first three months (433 thousand), the commerce sector closed 54.1 thousand job positions. n
Latin America Macro Data
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Unemployment rate
7,00%
11,10%
7,80%
12,10%
3,50%
9,40%
Basic interest rate
47,00%
12,75%
8,25%
6,00%
6,50%
4,50%
Inflation (LTM - apr*)
55,10%
12,13%
10,50%
9,23%
7,60%
8,62%
*LTM - Last Twelve Months Until April (Except Argentina) Legend: Green, Red and Black The data get better, worse and equal than the previous month.
CONFIDENCE INDEX: The Confidence Index is once again pinpointing a downfall. In April, the indicator reached 104.3 points, 0.7% less than in March, and -0.6% in the annual counterbalance. Consumers have felt the inflation impact in their domestic budgets and with higher interests, it’s more difficult to get credit to try keeping the consumption. The scenario isn’t even more negative because of the positive job generation since last year, contributing to the protection against the rise in prices. The Trade Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEC) was practically stable in April, with a variation of 0.4% and registering 114.9 points. In the annual comparison, however, there is a 28.2% growth, when in the same period last year, the Brazilian economy suffered several restrictions in the face of the second wave of the Coronavirus pandemic. With the injection of resources in the economy, money from the FGTS and the 13th-month salary, the tendency is that sales get heated, favoring the mood of businessmen in the capital São Paulo.
Note: The ICC and ICEC vary from 0 to 200. From a 100 to 200 points, it is considered an optimistic threshold, and below 100 points, a pessimistic one. Although the indexes are from the city of São Paulo, they follow a tendency of what is happening in the rest of the country since the city, the largest in Brazil, represents 11% of the National GDP.
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