MAIN FACTS
The year 2026 begins maintaining the political and commercial instability of last year, given the actions of the American government. This has caused a devaluation of the dollar against a basket of currencies around the world and, including, a search for safety in gold, which reached over 5,000 dollars in the international market, whereas, two years ago, the price was just above 2,000 dollars.
In Brazil, the real has appreciated, both due to this international issue, taking advantage of the dollar’s devaluation, and due to domestic factors, especially the interest rate, which remains at 15% per year, making the country attractive to speculative capital. The Brazilian currency was quoted at around R$ 5.10 per dollar (in February), whereas, a year earlier, the exchange rate was just over R$ 5.80. In March, because of the war, the dollar reached 5.2.
The Central Bank of Brazil, through its Monetary Policy Committee has already signaled a new cycle of cuts to the basic interest rate, the Selic, starting at the March meeting. The initial expectation is that the year will end close to 12%. This is because the inflation scenario in the country is quite favorable, including with the help of a cheaper dollar, contributing to lower prices in the purchase of inputs and products from abroad.
In January, inflation rose 0.33% and accumulates 4.44% in 12 months. Statistically, it should slow down again next month, following the trend of staying below 4%. For the next two years, the trend, according to market projections, is for inflation slightly above 3.5%. Even so, even with more moderate prices, interest rates for consumers and businesses are at a high level. The average for the first group was 60.1% per year in December of last year, above the 53.1% of
December 2024. In the same period, companies saw the average interest rate rise from 21.7% to 25% per year. The higher cost of money reduces the efficiency of spending, allocating an increasingly larger share of resources to interest payments, instead of directing them to the economy, trade, and services.
With the need to bear higher interest rates, both families and businesses reduce the traction of the economy, which is expected to grow 1.80% in 2026, slightly below the 2.20% of last year. It should not be much different in 2027, whose current projection is also 1.80%. For this year, the expected performance will be below the world average (3.1%), Latin America (2.3%), and countries like China (4.2%) and India (6.2%).
There are other structural obstacles in Brazil, not limited to the interest rate. The lack of fiscal balance is one of them. Although the country has presented record revenue, the result has been negative, as in the projected case for this year, of a primary deficit of R$ 72 billion. This maintains the trajectory of increasing public debt relative to GDP, which should exceed 80% this year and could reach almost 90% by the end of the decade. Another relevant point is that the higher debt is currently being negotiated at high interest rates, requiring greater effort from the government to pay it off and, consequently, reducing investment capacity. What, in a way, keeps the economy still stable at a positive level is the heated labor market, with the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded, at 5.1%.
The real income gain has provided a greater volume of resources in the hands of workers, which should not be reversed in the near future, since there are no signs of recession or higher inflation on the horizon.
In the case of tourism, the income gain has been fundamental to maintaining the growth of the sector’s
revenue. According to FecomercioSP, 2025 registered growth of 5.8% and record revenue of almost R$ 230 billion. For 2026, the forecast is for a 5% increase, with a financial volume of just over R$ 240 billion.
Air transport and the hotel industry help confirm this scenario, with record numbers of passengers transported and still high average fares, indicating demand pressure.
In other sectors of the economy, commerce registered growth of 1.6% last year, industry advanced 0.6%, and services saw an increase of 2.8%, according to IBGE data.
In terms of the current situation, the Brazilian
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IMPORTANT FACTS:
Safra: The estimated harvest for 2026 shows a very small loss compared to last year’s volume, of 1%, totaling 343 million tons. Even so, the level remains very close to the historical record of 346 million tons. Specifically regarding soybeans, the projection is that the largest harvested volume in the historical series will be recorded.
economy continues to grow at a slow pace, with an acceleration expected more towards the second half of the year, due to interest rate reductions and the electoral process, which historically implies increased public spending. If the world were in a less unstable and more positive situation, perhaps Brazil could face greater difficulties. However, the country has been observed as an attractive alternative for foreign capital, favoring the national currency, inflation, and, consequently, household spending. Still, it could grow at a faster pace if public finances were in better balance and if the public debt curve pointed to a possible reduction in the coming years.
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Economy: The IBC-Br, an index used as a preview of GDP, registered growth of 2.5% in 2025. However, signs of deceleration remain, with the December data showing a contraction of 0.2% compared to November.
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Employment: According to information from Caged (General Registry of Employed and Unemployed), from the Ministry of Labor, there was a positive balance of 1.3 million jobs last year, a loss of momentum compared to the previous year, when 1.7 million were generated. The service sector led job creation, generating 760,000 new formal jobs in 2025.
CONFIDENCE INDEXES:
• Consumer Confidence (ICC): The index continues its strong upward trend, reaching 127.4 points in January, a 2.4% increase compared to the previous month and the highest level since July 2024. Lower inflation is the main reason for this favorable trend, which has allowed for an increase in families’ purchasing power and the repayment of old debts.
• Business Confidence in Commerce (ICEC): Business confidence rose for the 4th consecutive month, reaching 104 points in January, the highest level in a year. With stronger consumer income, positive end-of-year sales contributed to increased confidence, but the country’s challenges, especially regarding high interest rates, limit stronger progress.
Consumer Confident Index (ICC) and Comerce Businessman (ICEC)
Confident Index (ICC) and Comerce Businessman (ICEC)
jun/19 ago/19 out/19 dez/19 fev/20 abr/20 jun/20 ago/20 out/20
fev/16 abr/16 jun/16 ago/16 out/16 dez/16 fev/17 abr/17 jun/17 ago/17 out/17 dez/17 fev/18 abr/18 jun/18 ago/18 out/18 dez/18 fev/19 abr/19 jun/19 ago/19 out/19 dez/19 fev/20 abr/20 jun/20 ago/20 out/20 dez/20 fev/21 abr/21 jun/21 ago/21 out/21 dez/21 fev/22 abr/22 jun/22 ago/22
dez/23 fev/24 abr/24 jun/24 ago/24 out/24 dez/24 fev/25 abr/25 jun/25 ago/25 out/25 dez/25
ICEC
Note: The ICC and ICEC range from 0 to 200. From 100 to 200 points is considered an optimistic level, and below 100 points pessimistic. Although the indicators are from the city of São Paulo, they follow the trend of what is happening in the rest of the country since the city, the largest in Brazil, represents 11% of the national GDP.
Consumer
TRAVEL AND TOURISM
We started 2026 with challenges ahead in Brazil and around the world, but optimistic. Optimism that was soon undermined by the war in Iran and the cancellation of thousands of flights to the Middle East.
Dubai, Doha, and the region in general have become, in recent years, important destinations for Brazilians who like to explore the world. In addition to being two important hubs for travel to Asia and even Europe. To give an idea of the region’s importance, Qatar Airways operates three daily flights between São Paulo and Doha, and Emirates flies from Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, using the giant A380 in the latter.
The Luxury and MICE markets are the most impacted, but Leisure travel to Dubai is already established as an important option for Brazilians.
We don’t know how long this new war will last, but some impacts are clear: increased fuel prices, increased airfares, and increased fear of traveling. Which destinations Brazilians will choose as an alternative is unclear. But national airlines are making their bets.
Gol Linhas Aéreas will announce in the coming days flights for the first time to Europe and possibly to long-haul destinations in the United States (today it only flies to Miami and Orlando). This is because it has signed a leasing contract for 5 A330-900s, which should arrive between 2026 and 2027. The Abra Group, owner of Gol and headquartered in Colombia, begins, with this action, a period of strong regional growth. And Gol, which has
always had a unified fleet of Boeing 737s, is now moving to new aircraft.
Latam is not far behind and will begin flights to Brussels, Amsterdam and Cape Town in the coming days. And it is also preparing to have Embraer aircraft (E195-E2) in its fleet for the first time, which will arrive at the end of the year for the domestic network.
Azul, which has just emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, promises to focus on its existing international network (Florida, Lisbon, Paris), without major news this year.
RESEARCH
Research conducted at the end of 2025 by the Travel Leaders Hub shows optimism among business leaders regarding business growth, but concern about the Brazilian tax reform (at the time of the research, the Iran war was not yet a concrete fact).
Although most companies expect growth or stability in business, the lack of clarity about the impacts of the new tax system appears as one of the main factors of concern for entrepreneurs and executives in the sector.
The survey had 597 responses, with 42.88% representing travel agencies or consultancies and 14.91% tour operators. Another 12.73% fall into various categories, while 7.87% belong to the accommodation sector and 6.20% to consolidators.
According to the survey, only 32.48% of companies say they feel prepared to deal with the effects of tax reform, while 48.72% still don’t know if they are ready and 18.79% clearly
state that they are not prepared. The uncertainty is directly reflected in the price projections for travel in 2026. When asked how the tax reform should affect the prices charged to consumers, 36.43% of respondents believe that prices will remain stable, while 33.64% project an increase of up to 20%. Another 16.71% believe that the adjustments may exceed this level.
According to the research, the tax reform appears alongside factors such as political instability, inflation, high interest rates and fluctuations in the international economy as the main risks to business performance in 2026. The tourism scenario becomes even more agitated because it is an election year in Brazil (we will elect a new president and new senators, federal deputies, governors and state deputies). So much so that, in the assessment of 87% of those interviewed, the elections should impact businesses in some way. Despite the challenging environment, the sector demonstrates resilience. More than 60% of respondents say they are very optimistic
about 2026, and about half of the companies predict revenue growth compared to 2025. This optimism is mainly driven by leisure tourism, the holiday calendar, and largescale events such as the World Cup (in the USA, Mexico and Canada), which 45.71% of respondents believe will have a positive impact on business.
TOP 50
In the PANROTAS Special Magazine for the PANROTAS Forum 2026, which took place in early March, we published the ranking of the 50 largest travel distributors in Brazil. The ranking is led by Decolar, CVC Corp, BeFly, Azul Viagens, and Paytrack.
Completing the Top 10 are: Grupo Confiança, Tabhi (owner of Orinter), Sakura, BRT, and BCD Travel.
Check out the Top 50, with information on each company on the PANROTAS Portal
To see the (very busy) Events Calendar for the year in Brazil, please visit
This report is produced by PANROTAS and FECOMERCIOSP to support your business decisions. The contents are valuable assets to Destinations and Travel Organizations, both domestic as well as international. For further information please contact ri@ fecomercio.com.br redacao@panrotas.com.br
