Pertaining to Alameda County south of Oakland, plus San Ramon in Contra Costa County, but will sometimes use county data depending on statistic and data source.
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County
March 2026 Market Report with market data through February
Moving into spring, rising buyer demand vs. an inadequate supply of homes for sale is creating a rapidly heating market characterized by increasing buyer competition, faster sales and more overbidding of asking price. The upcoming months are typically the most active of the year and on current trends, conditions are expected to generate upward pressure on home values. Median home sales prices often hit their calendar-year highs in spring due to the imbalance between supply and demand, as well as a seasonal surge in luxury home sales. As was the case last year, houses are seeing stronger market conditions than condos or townhouses, and more affluent buyers continue to play an outsized role in demand and home-price appreciation. The wild card in coming months is what sustained effects, if any, the Iran war may have on inflation, interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence. There may be no significant impact on housing, unlike the tariff shock which caused an abrupt slowdown in last year’s spring market.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on March 5, 2026, the weeklyaverage, 30-year,conforming-loaninterest rate, illustrated on this chart, was 6%, essentially unchanged from the previous week. (However, as of 3/6/26, the daily average rate has risen to 6.14%, increasing 15 basis points since the Iran war began.)*
3/30/23
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices, if sustained, can have considerable effects on consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets.
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Updated through March 6, 2026
Iran war begins
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
3-Month-Rolling Median House Sales Price*
Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, Livermore, Castro Valley, Fremont, Hayward, Union City, Newark, San Lorenzo and San Leandro
The 3-month-rolling median house sales price inFebruary2026was slightlydown (less than 1%) year over year. Median sales prices typically peak in spring.
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
$500,000 $250,000 $1,500,000 $1,250,000 $1,000,000
and
Tri-Valley & South Alameda Countysince 2005
3-Month-Rolling Median Condo & Townhouse Sales Prices*
Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, Livermore, Castro Valley, Fremont, Hayward, Union City,Newark, SanLorenzo andSanLeandro
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.Longerterm trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
The 3-month-rolling median townhouse sales price in February 2026 declined about 6.5% year-over-year, while the median condo price fell 9%.
*3-month rolling median sales prices reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks, large sample of regional sales. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Median Dollar per Square Foot Value by Home
Alameda County 2025 Sales*
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though these can add significant value). All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value, but the largest homes are usually located in more affluent, more expensive locations.
*Sales reportedtoNorCalAlliance.Howthesevaluesapplytoanyspecifichomeis unknownwith outacomparative marketanalysis.Dataderivedfromsourcesdeemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
San Mateo Santa Clara San Francisco Marin
$2,400,000
$1,830,000
$2,160,000
$1,880,000
$2,091,000
$1,580,000
$1,787,500
$1,325,000
South Alameda County
North Alameda County
$1,585,000
$1,160,000
$1,475,000
$1,236,000
$1,360,000
South of Oakland to Santa Clara County line
Santa Cruz Median House Sales Prices
$1,206,000
$1,107,500
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
$875,000
$971,500
$780,000
$857,500
$785,000
$680,000
$565,000 Napa Contra Costa Sonoma Solano
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely different values. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis. Oakland & North (Inner East Bay)
$1,209
$1,009
$1,155
$1,132
$981
$951
$865
$810
North Alameda County
South Alameda County Santa Cruz
$785
$679
$762
$743
$743
$644
$558
$528
$509
$404
$501
$451
$362
South of Oakland to Santa Clara County line
by Greater Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales* Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in the 12 months through 2/28/26. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
$/sq.ft. is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value.
Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely different values. How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon
The number of new listings in February 2026 continued to climb butwas6.5%loweryear over year. New-listing activity should increase in coming months.
Reflecting the combined markets of Alameda County south of Oakland + San Ramon in Contra Costa County
As of 3/1/26, the number of listings was climbing and 3.5% higher year over year. Listing inventory will almost certainly continue to rise rapidly through summer or fall.*
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off market without selling.
*Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Pertaining to the cities of Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon.
The number of listings going into contract in February 2026 rebounded from the mid-winter low but declined about 11% year over year.
Tri-Valley, South Alameda County Market since 2018, 3-Month Rolling Average
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. MSI has been falling in recent months, though running higher than in recent years. It remains very low by national standards.
Pertaining to Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon.
Overbidding typically hits its low point in mid-winter and its peak in spring. In February 2026, 57% of home sales closed for over list price. For houses alone, the % sold over LP was 66%, for townhouses, 41%, and for condos, 32%.
Fremont,Hayward, Newark, UnionCity, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon
March
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price; 96% = 4% below asking price.
The average home sale in February 2026 sold about 2% over list price.
Spring
Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, Livermore, Castro Valley, Fremont, Hayward, Union City, Newark, San Leandro
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers inthe previous month.January’s low mostly reflects the very slow market in December and early January.
The number of home sales in February 2026 rose from the January nadir but was slightly lower year over year.
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County, $2,000,000+
Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, Livermore, Castro Valley, Fremont,Hayward,Union City, NewarkandSan Leandro
$2 million+ home sales rise and fall to seasonal inventory and demand trends, typically climbing from their midwinter low to peak in spring or summer.
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. February 2026 saw a big rebound of $2 million+ sales from the usual January low point. Sales volume will commonly rise quickly through spring.
but
Pertainingtothe cities ofFremont,Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon.
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract.
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
2025
| Interest rates soar
Large sample of sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources
and
Of residents of Asian heritage, the 3 largest groups are Chinese, Indian and Filipino.
The Bay Area has one of the most diverse populations in the world.
Approximately 35% of the population was foreign-born.
2+ Races
Black/
Of residents of Hispanic/Latino heritage, the largest group is Mexican.
As self-identified by residents: Categories as delineated by U.S. Census.
“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from Investopedia
► On 3/6/26, the VIX Volatility Index hit its highest point since the tariff shock in April 2025.
Mar-25
*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.
As of early 2026, the CAPE ratio has been running at its highest readings since the dotcom bubble.
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock butreboundedhigher in JanuaryandFebruary2026 toa level very high by long-term standards. This chart pre-dates the start of the Iran war.
Tariff shock►
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially.
*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output view=net 1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. Monthly Change in U.S. NonFarm Employment, in Thousands Employment trends and job security continue to be major concerns of consumers and economists.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.