Shrugging Off War, Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. What effects that occurred usually impacted less expensive markets more sensitive to interest rate increases. It is also possible that some sellers may have delayed listing their homes as they waited for more clarity regarding economic conditions. But so far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
Compared to February, the numbers of new listings, listings going into contract and closed sales in March all climbed, though year-over-year changes varied. The demand vs. supply dynamic remained relatively tight, 60% of sales sold over list price and listings sold faster. Though Q1 2026 median home sales prices fell from Q1 2025, the second quarter is usually the most heated of the year and often sees the highest sales prices of the calendar year.
As has been the case over the past year, house markets remained stronger than townhouse and condo markets.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with latereported activity.
12 Months House Sales by Community*
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. There were also 872 condo sales and 736 townhouse sales in the period.
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County Home Prices
Median House Sales Prices & Highest Sales*
$1,750,700
$1,730,000
$1,410,000 $1,415,000 $1,585,000 $1,708,500
$1,250,000
$1,250,000
$1,225,000
$825,000 $855,000 $912,500
High Sale: $4,150,000
High Sale: $7,398,000
High Sale: $6,500,000
High Sale: $3,824,000
High Sale: $2,950,000
High Sale: $3,005,000
High Sale: $2,868,000
High Sale: $3,750,000
High Sale: $4,935,000
High Sale: $3,300,000
High Sale: $1,900,000
High Sale: $1,200,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026.
This chart applies to HOUSE sales. The regional median condo sales price was $645,000, and the median townhouse price was $889,500.
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County Home Values
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Value*
per square foot
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though all those can add value). All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value.
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
This chart applies to HOUSE sales. The regional median condo $/sq.ft. value was $577, and the median townhouse $/sq.ft. value was $612.
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County Home Sizes
Median House Square Footage, 12 Months Sales* This chart applies to HOUSE
Square footage calculations are based upon interior living space and don’t include garages, attics, basements, decks, patios or lot size.
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County Condo & Townhouse Markets
Median Sales Prices: Selected Cities*
Median Condo Sales Prices
12 Months Sales*
Dublin
$822,500
San
Livermore
Fremont
Newark
Castro
Pleasanton
Union
Hayward
San
$465,000 $509,500
San
$1,188,000
$1,075,000
$1,068,000
$1,050,000
Castro
$1,021,000
$835,000 $865,000
$740,000 $775,000
San
$680,000
Median Townhouse Sales Prices
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales. It can be affected by a variety of factors, including market conditions, location, age of construction and median home sizes
2026 YTD Home Sales by Price Segment*
$3,000,000+
Sales by Property Type*
• House 71%
• Condo 16%
• Townhouse 13%
Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon & Sunol
$2,000,000 - $2,999,999
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999 Under $750,000
80% of sales under $750,000 were condos and townhouses.
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
$750,000 –$999,999
*Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
Median House Sales Price
Tri-Valley & Southern Alameda County, by Quarter Sales reported to East Bay
The median house sales price in Q1 2026 declined about 4% year-over-year.
Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Quarterly and seasonal fluctuations are common.
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
Median Townhouse Sales Price
Tri-Valley & Southern Alameda County, by Quarter
$1,000,000
Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon
Median sales price is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Quarterly and seasonal fluctuations are common.
The median townhouse sales price in Q1 2026 dropped about 7.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Q2
Q2
2022
Pandemic hits
2024
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
As reported to East Bay MLS, per Broker Metrics. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Median Condo Sales Price by Quarter
Tri-Valley & Southern Alameda County
Median sales price is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Quarterly and seasonal fluctuations are common. Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon
The median condo sales price in Q1 2026 declined about 11% year-over-year.
As
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County
New Listings Coming on Market: Market Seasonality
June-July 2021
June 2022
Aug. 2023
Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon
The number of new listings in March 2026 continued to rapidly climb but was 7% lower year over year.
May 2024
April 2025
House, condo, townhouse activity reported to East Bay MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Last period estimated based on available data: Late reported activity may change its figure.
Updated through March 2026
& Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month
Reflecting the combined markets of Alameda County south of Oakland + San Ramon in Contra Costa County
1,370 1,439 1,154 1,072
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was rising quickly, but unchanged year over year. Listing inventory will usually continue to rise through summer or fall.*
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off market without selling. Updated April 1, 2026
*Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
89% of listings under $750,000 were condos and townhouses
Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon & Sunol
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County: Dynamics & Seasonality
Spring 2021
Peak of pandemic boom
March 2022
Aug. 2022
| Interest rates soar
Pertaining to the cities of Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon.
The number of listings going into contract in March 2026 continued to increase but was essentially unchanged year over year.
May 2024
Aug. 2023
May 2025
Updated through March 2026
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) - of Active Listings on Market
Tri-Valley, South Alameda County Market since 2018, 3-Month Rolling Average
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. MSI has been stable in recent months, though running higher than in recent years. It remains very low by national standards.
Pandemic hits Spring 2018 Spring 2019 Spring 2021 –Spring 2022 Market cools
| Pandemic boom ►
Market cools
Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, Livermore, Castro Valley, Fremont, Hayward, Union City, Newark and San Leandro Spring 2023 Updated through March 2026 Spring 2024
| Interest rates soar
Monthly Home Sales
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County: Dynamics & Seasonality
Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, Livermore, Castro Valley, Fremont, Hayward, Union City, Newark, San Leandro
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. January’s low mostly reflects the very slow market in December and early January.
The number of home sales in March 2026 rose from February but was lower year over year.
Peak of pandemic boom
| Interest rate changes impact the market
May 2024
June 2025
Updated through March 2026
Higher-Price & Luxury Home Sales by Month
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County, $2,000,000+
Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, Livermore, Castro Valley, Fremont, Hayward, Union City, Newark and San Leandro
$2 million+ home sales rise and fall to seasonal inventory and demand trends, typically climbing from their midwinter low to peak in spring or summer.
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. March 2026 $2 million+ sales ticked up from February but was 27% lower year over year.
Aug. 2021
Overbidding in Tri-Valley, South Alameda County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market
Pertaining to Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon.
Large sample of sales data
to
Overbidding typically hits its low point in mid-winter and its peak in spring. In March 2026, 60% of home sales closed for over list price. For houses alone, the % sold over LP was 67%, for townhouses, 48%, and for condos, 31%.
June 2023 Updated through March 2026
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage (SP/LP %)
Tri-Valley, South Alameda County: Over/Under Bidding
Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon
March 2022
| Pandemic hits
| Interest rates soar
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price; 96% = 4% below asking price.
The average home sale in March 2026 sold about 2% over list price.
June 2023
Spring 2024
Large sample of sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Updated through March 2026
Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale
Tri-Valley & South Alameda County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract.
Dec. 2021
Peak of pandemic boom | Interest rates soar
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
Pertaining to the cities of Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Union City, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon. Jan. 2023 Updated through March 2026
Jan. 2026
Large sample of sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
Alameda County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season – peaking in late summer or fall – but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. Year over year, price reductions declined 16% in March 2026. Sept. 2021 July-Aug. 2022
Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/,
Additional Economic Data
Alameda County Population Trends since 2010
U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st
Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the county, and by natural causes, i.e., births less deaths.
Pandemic hits ▲
Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year.
1,512,986 1,530,915 1,553,764 1,579,593 1,607,792
2024 to 2025, the county saw negative domestic migration (-15,960), positive foreign migration (+10,373), and more births than deaths (+5593). In California, net foreign immigration plunged approximately 65% in the last 12-month period and is expected to decline further in the period underway.
Alameda County since the pandemic struck: -144,934 in net domestic migration, +70,599 in net foreign migration, and +29,794 in natural change.
1,644,275 1,633,138 1,633,055 1,636,624 1,636,630 1,500,000 1,525,000 1,550,000 1,575,000 1,600,000 1,625,000 1,650,000 1,675,000
Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.