Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley and Menlo Park
March 2026 Report with market data through February
The Market Accelerates
Moving into spring, rising buyer demand vs. an inadequate supply of homes for sale is creating a rapidly heating market characterized by increasing buyer competition, faster sales and more overbidding of asking price. The upcoming months are typically the most active of the year and on current trends, conditions are expected to generate further upward pressure on home values. Median home sales prices often hit their calendar-year highs in spring, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, as well as a seasonal surge in luxury home sales.
As was the case last year, houses are seeing stronger market conditions than condos and townhouses, and more affluent buyers continue to play an outsized role in demand and home-price appreciation. $5 million+ home sales hit their highest month-of-February count ever.
The wild card in coming months is what sustained effects, if any, the Iran war may have on inflation, interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence. Barring an extreme decline in economic conditions, we currently consider a substantial negative impact on the region’s housing market unlikely.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
The 3-month-rolling median house sales price in February 2026 rose about 1.5% year over year.
Median sales price is thatprice at whichhalf the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that conceals a wide range of prices in the underlying sales and can be affected by factors other than changes in fair market value, including market seasonality and changes in the median size of homes sold. trends are more reliable than short-term changes.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
$4,400,000 $4,200,000 $4,000,000 $3,800,000 $3,600,000 $3,400,000 $3,200,000 $3,000,000 $2,800,000 $2,600,000 $2,400,000
*3-month rolling average of median prices as reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics or NorCal MLS Alliance. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change due to late-reported sales.
Stanford
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as the median size of houses sold in the period). Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
The 3-month-rolling median house $/sq.ft. value in February 2026 rose about 2.5% year over year.
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks, large sample of regional sales. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Median Dollar per Square Foot Value by House Size
StanfordCircle 2024&2025Sales,andYear-over-YearPercentageChange* 2024 $/Sq.Ft. 2025 $/Sq.Ft. Year-over-Year Change
$2,118 $2,115 Under 1400 sq.ft. Houses $1,981 $1,980
$1,699 $1,615
doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though these can add significant value). All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value. Larger homes of 3000+ square feet saw the highest 2024 to 2025 appreciation rates.
Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley and Menlo Park
Median House Sales Prices
by Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*
Stanford Circle
San Mateo
$4,200,000
$3,272,500
$2,400,000
$1,830,000
$2,160,000
$1,880,000
San Francisco
Marin
Alameda
$2,091,000
$1,580,000
$1,787,500
$1,325,000
$1,550,000
$1,175,000
$1,360,000
$1,206,000
$1,107,500
$875,000
$971,500
$780,000
$857,500
$785,000
$680,000
$565,000
The Stanford Circle contains Palo Alto, Los Altos and Los Altos Hills in Santa Clara County, and Atherton, Menlo Park, Woodside and Portola Valley in San Mateo County.
Median House Sales Prices
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely different values. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in the 12 months through 2/28/26. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Santa Clara
Santa Cruz Napa
Contra Costa Sonoma Solano
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Values
by Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*
Stanford Circle
Santa Clara San Mateo
$2,134
$1,909
$1,209
$1,009
$1,155
$1,132
San Francisco Marin Alameda
$981
$951
$865
$810
$758
$730
Santa Cruz
The Stanford Circle contains Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Menlo Park, Woodside, Portola Valley.
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
Contra Costa Solano
$743
$644
$558
$528
$509 $404
$501
$451
Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely different values. How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis. Napa Sonoma
$/sq.ft. is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value.
New Listings Coming on Market
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
After the big jump in January, the number of new listings in February 2026 ticked down and was 12% lower year over year.
Stanford Circle Homes Market
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
As of 3/1/26, the number of listings was slowly increasing, but lower year over year. Listing inventory will almost certainly continue to rise through summer or fall.*
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off market without selling.
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Stanford Circle: Supply vs. Demand
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the 12-month rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. March is typically one of the months in which the supply of listings is lowest as compared
Overbidding List Prices in the Stanford Circle
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.
More overbidding
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price, since 2019 Large
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings and usually peak in spring and fall. In February 2026, 62% of sales sold for over list price, up from 52% in February 2025.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Stanford Circle Cities: Over & Under Bidding
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
100% = anaverage sales price at original list price. 102% = an average sales price 2% over asking price; 98% = 2% below asking price. Homes selling under $5 million typically sell for higher sales- price-to-list-price percentages than more expensive homes (which are more likely to sell below asking price). In February 2026, the average home sale sold about 6% over list price.
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month.
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Based on large sample of sales. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Stanford Circle Region Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
The number of listings going into contract in February 2026 jumped following the surge of new listings in January. Accepted-offer activity normally accelerates in spring.
Residential activity reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated based on available numbers but may change with late-reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Comparedtolong-term, national norms,theregion’sMSI reading continues to run extremely low, indicating high demand compared to the supply of homes for sale.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Pandemic
Market
| Pandemic boom
Market Spring ►
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active
at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market.
3-month rolling average monthly data for residential transactions reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Home Sales Volume
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. February 2026 sales volume rebounded from the January low and rose about 20% year over year. Sales numbers should climb through spring.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Luxury Home Sales, $5 Million+
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
$5m+home sales in February2026
Average Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Stanford Circle Cities: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Homes under $5 million usually sell faster than more expensive homes.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, Atherton, Woodside
With the rush of new listings, homes typically sell fastest in spring. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods.
Large sample of sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Selected Economic & Demographic Data
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on March 5, 2026, the weeklyaverage, 30-year,conforming-loaninterest rate, illustrated on this chart, was 6%, essentially unchanged from the previous week. (However, as of 3/6/26, the daily average rate has risen to 6.14%, increasing 15 basis points since the Iran war began.)*
3/30/23
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices, if sustained, can have considerable effects on consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets.
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Updated through March 6, 2026
Iran war begins
Financial Markets, 2025 –
2026
YTD Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
VIX Volatility Index*
By Day in 2025
“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from Investopedia
► On 3/6/26, the VIX Volatility Index hit its highest point since the tariff shock in April 2025.
Mar-25
*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.
As of early 2026, the CAPE ratio has been running at its highest readings since the dotcom bubble.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock butreboundedhigher in JanuaryandFebruary2026 toa level very high by long-term standards. This chart pre-dates the start of the Iran war.
Tariff shock►
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
U.S. Jobs Report*
MonthlyChangeinNumber of Jobs, in Thousands*
Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially.
*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output view=net 1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. Monthly Change in U.S. NonFarm Employment, in Thousands Employment trends and job security continue to be major concerns of consumers and economists.
Santa Clara County Population
Breakdown Estimates by Race/Ancestry
Native American, Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander
The Bay Area has one of the most diverse populations in the world.
Asian
Of residents of Asian heritage, the 4 largest groups are Chinese, Indian, Vietnamese and Filipino.
Approximately 41.5% of the population was foreign-born.
U.S. Census 7/1/24 estimates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Estimates published with significant margins of error and should be considered very approximate. Due to the way Census data is collected & sorted, percentages do not add up to 100%.
Of residents of Hispanic/Latino heritage, the largest group is Mexican.
As self-identified by residents: Categories as delineated by U.S. Census.
San Mateo County Population
Breakdown Estimates by Race/Ancestry
The Bay Area has one of the most diverse populations in the world.
Of residents of Hispanic/Latino heritage, the largest group is Mexican. Native American, Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander
Asian
Of residents of Asian heritage, the 2 largest groups are Chinese & Filipino.
Approximately 36% of the population was foreign-born.
U.S. Census 7/1/24 estimates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Estimates published with significant margins of error and should be considered very approximate. Due to the way Census data is collected & sorted, percentages do not add up to 100%.
As self-identified by residents: Categories as delineated by U.S. Census.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.