Shrugging Off War, Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper
into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation – Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. What effects that occurred usually impacted less expensive markets more sensitive to interest rate increases. It is also possible that some sellers may have delayed listing their homes as they waited for more clarity regarding economic conditions. But so far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
Compared to February, the numbers of new listings, total listings for sale, listings going into contract and closed sales in March all climbed, though they declined on a year-over-year basis. The demand vs. supply dynamic remained very tight, overbidding increased and listings sold faster. The second quarter is often the most active of the year.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Stanford Circle Home Values
Median House Sales Prices – 12 Months Sales*
Atherton
In very expensive markets with low sales volumes, median sales prices can sometimes fluctuate dramatically without great reference to changes in fair market value.
Median Sales Price Highest Sale Reported to MLS*
$10,200,000
High Sale in Period: $45,500,000
Los Altos Hills
$5,438,000
High Sale in Period: $19,500,000
Los Altos
$4,820,000
High Sale in Period: $12,000,000
Portola Valley
$4,262,500
High Sale in Period: $56,000,000
Palo Alto
$3,890,000
High Sale in Period: $21,250,000
Woodside
$3,885,000
High Sale in Period: $85,000,000
Menlo Park
$3,300,000
High Sale in Period: $12,000,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales. This chart pertains to HOUSE sales only. The median condo sales price in the region was $1,390,000 and for townhouses, $2,020,000.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS, and new sales are reported constantly. All numbers approximate. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Stanford Circle Home Sales
House Sales by City/Town, 12 Months Sales*
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. There were also 170 condo sales and 81 townhouse sales in the period (mostly in Palo Alto, Menlo Park and Los Altos).
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data based upon sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with latereported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Altos Hills
Stanford Circle Home Values
Median Dollar per Square Foot – 12 Months House Sales*
Atherton
$2,180
Palo Alto
$2,006
Los Altos
$1,885
Menlo Park
$1,652
Portola Valley
$1,587
Los Altos Hills
$1,574
Woodside
$1,332
How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sq.ft.) is based upon interior living space and does not include garages, attics, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value. per square foot
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate.
This chart reflect HOUSE values. The median condo $/sq.ft. value was $1046, and for townhouses, $1171.
Stanford Circle Market
Median House Size – 12 Months Sales*
Median lot size: 1 acre
Home square footage is calculated on interior living space and does not include garages, attics, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or lot size.
Median lot size: 1.1
Median lot size: 1 acre
Median lot size: 1.16 acres
Median lot size: .26 acre
Median lot size: .17 acre
Median lot size: .16 acre
Median house size in the region is approximately 2410 sq.ft. & median lot size is .23 acre.
Median home (and lot) sizes vary widely, with significant impacts on home values.
Median condo size in the region was 1276 sq.ft. and for townhouses, 1656 sq.ft.
Stanford Circle Residential Market
2026
2% of sales were for $20 million+
$10,000,000+
Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley and Menlo Park
Sales by Property Type*
• House
• Condo
$1,000,000 - $1,999,999
$2,000,000 - $2,999,999 Under $1,000,000
• Townhouse 10% *Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
Stanford Circle Region
Median House Sales Prices since 2016, by Quarter*
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Seasonal and quarterly fluctuations are common. Q2 2022
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley: Median prices vary widely among these communities.
Outsized spikes up or down in the median house prices should be considered cautiously until substantiated over the longer term. Q2 2023
Q1 2025
High-tech boom
Pandemic boom
Pandemic hits
$2,250,000 $2,500,000 $2,750,000 $3,000,000 $3,250,000 $3,500,000 $3,750,000 $4,000,000 $4,250,000
*As reported to MLSLISTINGS per Broker Metrics. Median sales prices are generalities, typically most useful in illustrating broad market trends. All numbers approximate, may contain errors and subject to revision. Late reported sales may alter last period figure.
Stanford Circle Region
Average Dollar per Square Foot Value, by Quarter
Dollar per Square Foot is calculated on interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though all these can add value). Average dollar per square foot values are affected by a number of factors (besides changes to fair market value), including the average size and lot size of homes sold within the quarter. Pandemic hits
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
The region has the highest $/sq.ft. values in the Bay Area.
Note: Median sales prices and $/sq.ft. values can be affected differently by different factors (such as changes in median home size).
New Listings Coming on Market
Stanford Circle Region Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
The number of new listings in March 2026 continued to
Stanford Circle Homes Market
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was quickly increasing, but 5% lower year over year. Listing inventory will usually continue to rise through summer or fall.*
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off market without selling.
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Updated April 1, 2026
Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley and Menlo Park
Overbidding List Prices in the Stanford Circle
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price, since 2019
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings and usually peak in spring and fall. In March 2026, 67% of sales sold for over list price, essentially unchanged year over year.
2023
Winter Updated through March 2026
Large sample of sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales. Pandemic hits
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Stanford Circle Cities: Over & Under Bidding
March 2022
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 102% = an average sales price 2% over asking price; 98% = 2% below asking price.
Homes selling under $5 million typically sell for higher salesprice-to-list-price percentages than more expensive homes (which are more likely to sell below asking price). In March 2026, the average home sale sold about 5.5% over list price.
Spring-Fall 2023
Pandemic Year 1
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month.
Updated through March 2026 Spring
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Based on large sample of sales. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Average Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Stanford Circle Cities: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Jan. 2021
Homes under $5 million usually sell faster than more expensive homes. Spring 2023
Pandemic Year 1
Spring 2021
Jan. 2022
Spring 2022
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, Atherton, Woodside
Jan. 2023
Jan. 2024
With the rush of new listings, homes typically sell fastest in spring. Days on market have been dropping fast moving into spring 2026. Updated through March 2026 Spring 2024 Jan. 2025 Spring 2025 Jan. 2026
Large sample of sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Stanford Circle Region Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley May
The number of listings going into contract in March 2026 rose from February but fell year over year.
Months
Supply of Inventory (MSI) of Active Listings on Market
Stanford Circle Real Estate Market since 2018, 3-Month-Rolling Average
Compared to long-term, national norms, the region’s MSI reading continues to run extremely low, indicating high demand compared to the supply of homes for sale.
Market cools
Pandemic hits
| Pandemic boom ►
Spring 2018 Spring 2019 Spring 2021 –Spring 2022
Market cools
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market.
3-month rolling average monthly data for residential transactions reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Updated through March 2026
Home Sales Volume
Stanford Circle Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. March 2026 sales volume continued to rise but was slightly down year over year. Sales numbers usually climb through spring.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Sales volume is affected by both demand and the supply of listings available to buy.
Residential activity reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics or NorCal MLS Alliance. Last month’s data estimated based on available numbers but may change with late-reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Luxury Home Sales, $5 Million+
Stanford Circle Region Market Dynamics & Seasonality
$5m+ home sales commonly peak in late spring. March 2026 sales increased from February but saw a substantial year-over-year decline.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
of pandemic boom
Sales in one month mostly reflect listings that went into contract in the previous month.
Aug. 2023 Updated through March 2026
Residential activity reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated based on available numbers but may change with late-reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Selected
Economic Data
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026 Sept. 2022
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
shock↑ Iran war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
Updated March 18, 2026
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.