Sonoma County Market Report - March 2026.pdf

Sonoma County Real Estate

March 2026 Report with market data through February

The Market Begins to Accelerate

Moving into spring, rising buyer demand vs. an inadequate supply of homes for sale is heating up the Sonoma County housing market. The number of sales and accepted-offer activity are increasing, homes are selling faster and the number of sales over asking price is growing. The upcoming months are typically the most active of the year and on current trends, conditions are expected to generate upward pressure on home values. Median home sales prices often hit their calendar-year highs in spring or summer. The wild card in coming months is what sustained effects, if any, the Iran war may have on inflation, interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence. There may be no significant impact on housing, unlike the tariff shock which caused an abrupt slowdown in last year’s spring market.

Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.

Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD

30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*

Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.

Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on March 5, 2026, the weeklyaverage, 30-year,conforming-loaninterest rate, illustrated on this chart, was 6%, essentially unchanged from the previous week. (However, as of 3/6/26, the daily average rate has risen to 6.14%, increasing 15 basis points since the Iran war began.)*

3/30/23

*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.

Crude Oil, Price per Barrel

Since February 2, 2026*

Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices, if sustained, can have considerable effects on consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets.

*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.

Updated through March 6, 2026

Iran war begins

Financial Markets, 2025 – 2026

YTD

Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25

Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25

S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25

Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.

Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.

Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less, and is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and not particularly meaningful unless substantiated over the longer term.

The 3-month-rolling median house sales price in February 2026 declined about 1.5% year over year. The median sales price typically peaks in spring or summer.

2005-2006

Foreclosure

2018 Pandemic hits ▲

Appreciation is typically measured year over year

2022-23-24- 25 crisis to account for market seasonality.

Updated through February 2026

with

3-Month-RollingMedianDollarperSquareFoot Values*

The 3-month-rolling median house $/sq.ft.valuein February2026was unchanged year over year.

Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.

Median Dollar per Square Foot Value by Home Size

Sonoma County 2025 Sales*

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though these can add significant value). All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value. But among other issues, larger luxury homes will often have significantly bigger lots, not uncommonly multiple acres, which will affect the $/sq.ft. equation.

*SalesreportedtoNorCalAlliance.How thesevaluesapplytoany specifichomeis unknownwith outacomparative marketanalysis.Dataderivedfromsourcesdeemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

3500+ sq.ft.

Median House Sales Prices: 3-Bedroom & 4-Bedroom Homes

by Greater Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*

$2,400,000

$1,830,000

$2,160,000

$1,880,000

$2,091,000

$1,580,000

$1,787,500

$1,325,000

$1,550,000

$1,175,000

$1,360,000

$1,206,000

$1,107,500

$875,000

$971,500

$780,000

$970,000

$852,500

$857,500

$785,000

$680,000

$565,000

Median House Sales Prices

4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House

3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House

Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. Counties contain submarkets of widely different values. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.

Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in the 12 months through 2/28/26. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

Median House Dollar per Square Foot Values

by Greater Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*

$1,209

$1,009

$1,155

$1,132

$981

$951

$865

$810

$758

$730

$743

$644

$558

$528

Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values

4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House Napa

$556

$446

$509

$404

$501 $451

$362

3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House

$/sq.ft. is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value.

Counties contain submarkets of widely different values. How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.

New Listings Coming on Market

Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of new listings coming on market ebbs and flows by seasonal trends, though it can be affected by specific market dynamics.

The number of new listings in February 2026 continued to rise from the December low count and was unchanged year over year. It normally rises quickly in coming months.

Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted onsite. Data fromsourcesdeemedreliablebut maycontainerrorsandsubjectto revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers are approximate.

Sonoma County Homes Market

As of 3/1/26, the number of listings was slowly increasing, but 11% lower year over year. Listing inventory will almost certainly continue to rise rapidly through summer or fall.*

The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.

* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.

Sonoma County: Supply vs. Demand #ofListingson Marketvs.AverageMonthlySales*

MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the 12-month rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market.

As buyers jump back into the market in the new year faster than sellers list their homes, March is typically one of the months in which the supply of listings is lowest as compared to demand. These are low to extremely low MSI readings by long-term standards, signifying heated, competitive markets – especially for 2-BR and 3-BR houses.

The number of listings going into contract in February 2026rose 12%to 13% year over year. It usually climbs rapidly through mid-late spring.

May

Months

By national norms,the current MSI reading would be considered to indicate a low supply of listings for sale and is running lower year over year. MSI readings are lower in more affordable price segments, and higher for luxury homes.

MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of listings.

3-month rolling average monthly data for residential transactions reported to Bareis MLS, per Broker Metrics.Data fromsources deemed reliable but maycontain errorsandsubject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.

Percentage

Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. Inventory has declined while demand has increased, resulting in a higher absorption rate in February 2026.

Bareis MLS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics.

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. As the new year’s market has gained steam, sales volume began to rebound in February 2026. It should rise further through spring.

Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Luxury home sales usually ebb and flow according to seasonal trends, hitting their nadir in midwinter and peaking for the year in late spring or summer.

Price Reductions on Active Listings

Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season – typically peaking in summer or fall – but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market.

Year over year, price reductions dropped 16% in February 2026.

Median Days on Market – Speed of Sale

SonomaCounty:MarketDynamics&Seasonalityby Month

A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract. Sales in one month mostly reflect market conditions in the previous month. More affordable homes usually sell much more quickly than luxury homes.

Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In mid-winter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.

Overbidding List Prices in Sonoma County

Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price

Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market

dynamics in the previous month.

Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.

More overbidding ▲

Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings. 28% of home sales in February 2026 sold for over list price.

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage (SP/LP

Sonoma County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality

100% = an average sales price at original list price. 104% = an average sales price 4% over asking price; 96% = 4% below asking price. Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month.

overbidding normally hits its low point for the year in mid-winter, and its high point in spring. The average home sale in February 2026 sold about 3.5% under list price. Reflecting supply and demand dynamics,

Additional Economic Data

VIX Volatility Index*

By Day in 2025

“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from Investopedia

► On 3/6/26, the VIX Volatility Index hit its highest point since the tariff shock in April 2025.

Mar-25

*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.

The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.

As of early 2026, the CAPE ratio has been running at its highest readings since the dotcom bubble.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*

By Month since January 2000

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock butreboundedhigher in JanuaryandFebruary2026 toa level very high by long-term standards. This chart pre-dates the start of the Iran war.

Tariff shock►

The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*

*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.

U.S. Jobs Report*

MonthlyChangeinNumber of Jobs, in Thousands*

Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially.

*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output view=net 1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. Monthly Change in U.S. NonFarm Employment, in Thousands Employment trends and job security continue to be major concerns of consumers and economists.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,

views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.