to Strengthen
Moving Deeper into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. So far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
The numbers of new listings, listings going into contract, and total sales in March all climbed significantly month over month and year over year. The absorption rate and overbidding increased and listings sold faster. The number of price reductions fell compared to March 2025. This pressure of rising demand may lead to renewed price appreciation in the second quarter.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Sonoma County House Sales
12 Months Sales by Market*
“Russian River” includes Guerneville, Forestville, Cazadero and Monte Rio.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data based upon sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Sea Ranch – 62, Cotati – 49, Bodega Bay – 42, Penngrove – 38, Glen Ellen – 34, Occidental –24, Kenwood – 23, Jenner – 10
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. There were also 305 condo sales and 176 townhouse sales during the period.
Sonoma County House Prices
Median Sales Prices & High Prices $3m+, by City, Town or Region*
Kenwood
Sea Ranch
Penngrove
Bodega Bay
Glen Ellen
Occidental
Sebastopol
Healdsburg
Petaluma West
Sonoma (city)
Santa Rosa NE
Petaluma East
Windsor Cotati Jenner
Santa Rosa SE
Rohnert Park
Oakmont
Santa Rosa NW
Santa Rosa SW
Cloverdale
Russian River
$1,800,000
$1,462,500
$1,375,500
$1,365,000
$1,318,500
$1,262,500
$1,211,000
$1,150,000
$1,105,000
$1,100,000
$889,500
$861,000
$857,500
$849,000
$842,000
$760,000
$755,000
$722,500
$710,000
$685,000
$635,000
$575,000
High Price Sale: $4,500,000
High Price Sale: $4,250,000
High Price Sale: $3,887,500
High Price Sale: $3,365,000
High Price Sale: $4,875,000
High Price Sale: $3,290,000
High Price Sale: $5,000,000
High Price Sale: $15,000,000
High Price Sale: $10,000,000
High Price Sale: $10,346,000
High Price Sale: $6,750,000
High Price Sale: $4,100,000
High Price Sale: $3,850,000
High Price Sale: $3,023,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
High Price Sale: $3,000,000
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Median house and lot sizes can vary significantly between these communities, with large impact on median prices.
This chart illustrates median HOUSE prices. The median condo sales price was $426,000, and for townhouses, $506,000.
Sonoma County House Values
Median $/Sq.Ft. Values by City, Town or Region*
Bodega Bay
Sea Ranch
Healdsburg
Kenwood
Sebastopol
Penngrove
Jenner Glen Ellen
Petaluma West
Sonoma (city)
Occidental
Cotati
Petaluma East
Russian River
Santa Rosa NE
Windsor
Santa Rosa SE
Santa Rosa NW
Oakmont
Santa Rosa SW
Rohnert Park
Cloverdale
12 Months Sales*
Reflects zip code 95476
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sq.ft.) is calculated on interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished basements, rooms built without permit, storage rooms, patios, decks or lot sizes. All things being equal, a smaller house will sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value.
This chart illustrates HOUSE values. The median condo $/sq.ft. value was $401, and for townhouses, $389.
How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Sonoma County House Size
Median House Square Footage by City, Town or Region*
Occidental
Kenwood
Penngrove
Sebastopol
Santa Rosa NE
Petaluma West
Windsor
Glen Ellen
Rohnert Park
Sea Ranch
Petaluma East
Bodega Bay
Sonoma (city)
Oakmont
Santa Rosa SE
Cloverdale
Healdsburg
Santa Rosa
Santa
Russian
Square footage is calculated on interior living space and does not include garages, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or lot sizes.
This chart illustrates median HOUSE sizes. The median condo size was 1098 sq.ft., and for townhouses, 1291 sq.ft. Markets with larger than normal median lot sizes noted.
Sonoma County 2026 YTD Home Sales by Price Segment*
$3,000,000 - $4,999,999
$2,000,000 - $2,999,999
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999 Under
Sales by Property Type*
• House 86%
• Condo 8%
• Townhouse 5%
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
$500,000 - $749,999
$750,000 –$999,999
*Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
Sonoma Home Price Appreciation
The Q1 2026 median house sales price was essentially unchanged from Q1 2025.
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Seasonal fluctuations are common. It’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in Q2. Q2 2022
Median House Sales Prices by Quarter since 2012* Pandemic hits
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality. Q2 2021 Q2 2018
*As reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median sales prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short term fluctuations. All numbers approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported sales.
$200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000 $650,000 $700,000 $750,000 $800,000 $850,000
3-Month-Rolling Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
The 3-month-rolling median house $/sq.ft. value in March 2026 was essentially unchanged year over year. 2025
2024 2023
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value.
Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Great recession & foreclosure crisis
Updated through March 2026
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
New Listings Coming on Market
Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sonoma County Homes Market
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was increasing quickly, but slightly lower year over year. Listing inventory will almost certainly continue to rise rapidly through summer or fall.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling. Updated April 1, 2026
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Homes for Sale in Sonoma County
Homes priced over $3 million make up 13% of listings, but only 3% of sales.
Listing Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
May-June 2021
Spring 2022
The number of listings going into contract in March 2026 surged higher from February and rose 12% to 13% year over year.
May 2024
May-July 2023
Updated through March 2026
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) – of Listings on Market
Sonoma County Real Estate Market, 3-Month Rolling Average
By national norms, the current MSI reading would be considered to indicate a low supply of listings for sale and is running lower year over year. MSI readings are lower in more affordable price segments, and higher for luxury homes.
Spring 2025
Spring 2018
Spring 2019
Pandemic hits
| Pandemic boom ►
Spring 2021 –Spring 2022 Market cools
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of listings.
Spring 2024
Spring 2023
▲ Interest rates soar Market cools
Updated through March 2026
3-month rolling average monthly data for residential transactions reported to Bareis MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Sonoma County: Absorption Rate by Month
March 2022
March 2021
March 2023
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale:
The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market.
Inventory has declined while demand has increased, resulting in a higher absorption rates in February and March 2026.
March 2024
Pandemic boom: Historic lows in interest rates
| Pandemic hits
| Interest rate changes impact the market
March 2025
Bareis MLS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Updated through March 2026
Monthly Sales Volume
Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.
Moving into spring, sales volume continues to climb and was about 15% higher year over year. It should rise further through spring.
| Interest rate changes impact the market
Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
July-Aug. 2020
June 2023
Luxury home sales usually ebb and flow according to seasonal trends, hitting their nadir in midwinter and peaking for the year in late spring or summer. May 2024
June-Aug. 2025
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month: January sales generally reflect December’s market slowdown.
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
Updated through March 2026
Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Median Days on Market – Speed of Sale
Sonoma County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality by Month
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract. Sales in one month mostly reflect market conditions in the previous month. More affordable homes usually sell much more quickly than luxury homes.
MidWinter
MidWinter
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. Days on market have been falling fast moving into spring.
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported
MidWinter
Updated through March 2026
Overbidding List Prices in Sonoma County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.
More overbidding ▲ July 2021
April 2022
MidWinter MidWinter
▲ Pandemic hits
MidWinter
June
2023
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings. 36% of home sales in March 2026 sold for over list price.
May 2024
MidWinter
| Interest rate changes impact the market
MidWinter
April 2025
MidWinter
Updated through March 2026
Sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage (SP/LP
Sonoma County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 104% = an average sales price 4% over asking price; 96% = 4% below asking price.
April 2022
Reflecting supply and demand dynamics, overbidding normally hits its low point for the year in mid-winter, and its high point in spring. The average home sale in March 2026 sold about 2% under list price.
May-June 2023
May 2024
Pandemic Boom
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month.
| Interest rate changes impact the market
April 2025
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks, or Broker Metrics. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Updated through March 2026
Additional Economic Data
Sonoma County Population Trends since 2010
U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st
Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year.
Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the county, and by natural causes, i.e., births less deaths.
Pandemic hits ▲
| Wildfires | Loss of housing 2024 to 2025, the county saw positive domestic migration (+514), positive foreign migration (+474), and more births than deaths (+50). Since the pandemic struck: -8447 in net domestic migration, +6335 in net foreign migration, and -137 in natural change.
Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.