Shrugging Off War, Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. What effects that occurred usually impacted less expensive markets more sensitive to interest rate increases. It is also possible that some sellers may have delayed listing their homes as they waited for more clarity regarding economic conditions. But so far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
The numbers of new listings, listings for sale and listings going into contract in March climbed substantially from February. The second quarter is usually the most active of the year, often seeing the highest median sales prices.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Santa Cruz County House Sales
12 Months Sales by Realtor MLS Area*
Larkin Valley (22), Corralitos (15), Central Bonny Doon (5), Davenport (2)
Amesti/Green Vly
This chart reflects HOUSE sales. There were also 188 condo sales and 156 townhouse sales during the period.
Scotts Valley includes the 3 Scotts Valley MLS areas.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026 by MLS area. Cities, towns, unincorporated areas and MLS areas don’t align perfectly. Data based upon sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Santa Cruz County House Values
Median House Sales Prices, 12 Months Sales, High Sales $4m+*
Capitola
Rio del Mar/Seascape
La Selva Beach
Live Oak
West Santa Cruz (city)
Central Aptos
Scotts Valley
Soquel
Los Gatos Mtns
East Santa Cruz (city)
Seacliff
Corralitos
Larkin Valley
Ben Lomond
Felton
Amesti/Green Vly
Central Watsonville
Boulder Creek
Lompico/Zayante
$1,700,000
$1,700,000
$1,700,000
$1,616,000
$1,612,500
$1,477,500
$1,455,000
$1,440,000
$1,395,000
$1,360,000
$1,340,000
$1,166,000
$1,132,500
$992,500
$910,000
$831,000
$775,000
$705,000
$655,000
High Price Sale: $5,970,000
High Price Sale: $8,170,000
High Price Sale: $4,140,000
High Price Sale: $12,495,000
High Price Sale: $4,500,000
High Price Sale: $4,500,000
High Price Sale: $13,000,000
High Price Sale: $4,100,000
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. New sales are reported constantly, which can change median sales prices.
East and West Santa Cruz refer to the City of Santa Cruz. Scotts Valley includes 3 MLS areas. All areas delineated are MLS areas.
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. The median condo sales price was $705,500, and for townhouses, $895,000.
Santa Cruz County Market
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Values*
Live Oak Capitola
Seacliff
West Santa Cruz
La Selva Beach
East Santa Cruz
Rio del Mar/Seascape
Soquel
Central Aptos
Scotts Valley
Los Gatos Mtns
Felton
Amesti/Green Vly
Ben Lomond
Larkin Valley Corralitos
Lompico/Zayante
Central Watsonville
Boulder Creek
$1,159
$710
$699
$657
$640
$614
$613
$583
$569
$567
$531
$512
East and West Santa Cruz refer to the City of Santa Cruz. Scotts Valley includes 3 MLS areas. All areas delineated are MLS areas.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per sq.ft. value.
The condo median $/sq.ft. value was $704, and for townhouses, $660/sq.ft.
Santa Cruz County Home Sizes
Median House Square Footage*
Los Gatos Mtns square feet
Scotts Valley
Rio del Mar/ Seascape
La Selva Beach
Central Aptos
Ben Lomond
Soquel
West Santa Cruz
Live Oak
Amesti/Green Vly
Larkin Valley Capitola
Central Watsonville Seacliff
East Santa Cruz
Boulder Creek
Felton
Lompico/Zayante
Median lot size: 2.7 acres
Home size is calculated based on interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size.
Markets with much larger median lot sizes than typical are broken out.
East and West Santa Cruz refer to the City of Santa Cruz. Scotts Valley includes 3 MLS areas. All areas delineated are MLS areas.
The median house sold in the county had 3 bedrooms & 2 baths and 1732 square feet.
Santa Cruz County House Price Appreciation
Median House Sales Prices, by Quarter
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Seasonal and quarterly fluctuations are common.
It’s not unusual to median sales prices to peak for the calendar year in Q2 (spring).
Q1 2022 Peak
The Q1 2026 median house sales price declined about 2% year over year.
Pandemic hits
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
As reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median sales price can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market
and subject to revision. Late reported sales may alter data of last period illustrated.
3-Month Rolling, Median House Dollar per Square Foot Value*
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as changes in the median size of homes sold). Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
Condo sales volumes are relatively low in the county, which can lead to large anomalous fluctuations in median sales price. Unusually big changes up or down should be treated cautiously until substantiated over the longer term.
Pandemic hits
As reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers approximate and subject to revision. Last period number may change with late reported sales.
Santa
Segment*
$4,000,000+
$3,000,000 - $3,999,999
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
$750,000 –$999,999
*Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
New Listings Coming on Market
Santa Cruz County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of new listings in March 2026 surged higher but was down about 8% year over year.
The number of new listings coming on market ebbs and flows by seasonal trends, though it can be affected by specific economic factors.
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers are approximate.
Santa Cruz County Homes Market
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was increasing quickly, but slightly lower year over year. Listing inventory will almost certainly continue to rise through summer or fall.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling. Updated April 1, 2026
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
The number of listings going into contract in March 2026 jumped from February but was essentially unchanged year over year. July 2025
Updated through March 2026
Santa Cruz County Market Dynamics & Seasonality*
The pending ratio is a version of absorption rate: The higher the percentage, the greater the demand as compared to the supply of listings available to buy. It usually peaks in spring.
Pandemic boom: Very low interest rates ▲ Interest rates soar
Pandemic hits ▲
The pending ratio is the ratio of the pending listing count (listings in contract) to the active listing count within the month. It is an approximate measure of demand vs. supply.
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Spring 2023
Oct. 2025 March 2025
Updated through March 2026
Monthly Sales Volume
Santa Cruz County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Spring-Summer 2021 April 2022
January
January
June 2023
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Sales volume continued to rebound in March and was very slightly higher year over year. It typically climbs rapidly through spring/early summer.
Oct. 2024
January
| Interest rate changes impact the market
January
June-July 2025
January
Updated through March 2026
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
Higher Price & Luxury Home Sales Volume
Higher-price home sales ebb and flow per seasonal trends, typically climbing quickly in spring. Sales numbers sometimes fluctuate dramatically month to month.
through March 2026
Overbidding List Prices in Santa Cruz County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Overbidding list price is one of the clearest reflections of buyer demand.
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings. The percentage typically peaks in spring. In March 2026, 32% of sales sold over list price.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Santa Cruz County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price; 95% = 5% below asking price. Spring 2022
Pandemic hits
Pandemic Boom
Spring 2023
Higher percentages signify greater buyer competition for new listings.
In March 2026, the average home sale sold about 2.5% below asking price.
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Updated through March 2026
Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale, Since 2020
Santa Cruz County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality, 3-Month-Rolling
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract, this statistic fluctuates by season and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
Pandemic Year 1
Aug. 2021
April-July 2022
Aug. 2023
May-Aug. 2024
June-July 2025
Updated through March 2026
3-month-rolling sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Selected
Economic Data
Santa Cruz County Population Trends since 2010
U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st
Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year.
Pandemic hits ▲ & wildfires
Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the county, and by natural causes, i.e., births less deaths.
2024 to 2025, the county saw negative domestic migration (-2701), positive foreign migration (+71), and more births than deaths (+78).
Since the pandemic struck: -15,999 in net domestic migration, +2019 in net foreign migration, and +1118 in natural change.
Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
